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Interoperability remains a central challenge for the crypto ecosystem, especially as Bitcoin-native protocols shift asset validation and state management away from traditional on-chain models. In a concrete move, Utexo, a CTDG Dev Hub participant, has introduced RGB support for Tether’s Wallet Development Kit (WDK) via the Utexo SDK. The development aims to bridge two fundamentally different views of asset state: RGB’s off-chain validation and the wallet’s on-chain anchors. By layering RGB functionality into a widely used wallet framework, this integration seeks to streamline developers’ workstreams while preserving the security properties of Bitcoin-based assets.

Key takeaways

  • The RGB protocol validates asset state off-chain and uses on-chain Bitcoin transactions as anchors, creating a fundamental mismatch with standard wallet SDKs that expect a global on-chain truth for balances.
  • Utexo’s RGB support for Tether’s Wallet Development Kit adds a dedicated adapter layer, enabling RGB operations to ride on the wallet’s existing transaction workflows without replacing underlying RGB infrastructure.
  • The new wdk-wallet-rgb module derives RGB keys from BIP-39 seeds and exposes RGB balances through wallet-facing interfaces, allowing backups and restores to be encrypted alongside other wallet data.
  • Limitations remain: the module does not provide RGB Lightning nodes, network configuration, or application-level UX, underscoring its role as an integration layer rather than a complete RGB solution.
  • As part of the CTDG Dev Hub ecosystem, Utexo’s work highlights a broader effort to nurture cross-chain tooling and encourage feedback from a global developer community.

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Market context: The effort sits at a time when wallet architects increasingly seek modular adapters to support non-native asset models while preserving familiar user experiences. The push toward off-chain validation paired with on-chain anchors is part of a broader trend to balance security with scalable, cross-chain asset issuance.

Why it matters

The RGB protocol was designed with Bitcoin’s security model in mind, but its approach to asset state is not globally observable on-chain. Rather than publishing a universal on-chain ledger of RGB asset balances, RGB relies on client-side validation and off-chain state propagation. This design choice improves scalability and privacy but places additional burdens on wallet developers: keys, validation data, persistence, and the coordination between Bitcoin transactions and RGB state transitions all occur outside a single, centralized wallet view. The result is a delicate balance between robust security guarantees and the risk of mismatched expectations within wallet ecosystems.

By introducing a dedicated adapter layer within the Wallet Development Kit, Utexo addresses the core friction points without rearchitecting RGB’s entire infrastructure. The wdk-wallet-rgb module acts as a bridge, translating RGB wallet operations into abstractions compatible with WDK’s multi-chain philosophy. In practice, this means RGB issuance and transfers can be exercised through standard wallet transaction flows, rather than requiring bespoke coordination logic external to the wallet. For developers, this translates into a more cohesive development path: assets created via RGB can be managed, backed up, and recovered in encrypted form alongside other wallet data, using familiar key management and seed architectures.

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Crucially, the module is explicit about its scope. It does not replace RGB infrastructure or automate deployment concerns, nor does it attempt to provide an RGB Lightning node, network configuration, or end-user UX flows. Instead, it preserves RGB’s off-chain validation model while integrating issuance and transfers into existing wallet lifecycles. This approach reflects a pragmatic evolution in wallet infrastructure: as more Bitcoin-native protocols move validation and state off-chain, wallet ecosystems will increasingly adopt integration layers that preserve security guarantees while simplifying development and user experience.

The collaboration positions RGB within a broader ecosystem where wallet tooling is increasingly modular and chain-agnostic. Utexo’s participation in the CTDG Dev Hub—a hub designed to connect developers and users across blockchains—highlights how a collaborative, globally distributed developer base can accelerate practical solutions. By linking RGB state management to the familiar WDK environment, the integration opens potential pathways for broader RGB adoption across wallets that rely on BIP-39 seed-based key management and standardized transaction workflows.

The module’s limitations

The integration layer is not a panacea. It intentionally leaves several RGB-critical components outside its scope, including:

  • RGB Lightning node functionality remains unsupported.
  • Network configuration and node discovery are not handled by the module.
  • Application-level UX or payment-flow orchestration is not defined within the adapter.
  • Backups, recovery, and the user experience associated with client-side validated assets still carry inherent complexity.

These limitations mirror the module’s role as a wallet integration layer rather than a complete RGB solution. The intent is to provide a structured pathway to incorporate RGB assets into the WDK ecosystem without disrupting existing wallet abstractions, acknowledging that further RGB infrastructure and tooling will be required for end-to-end deployment in production environments.

A hub nurturing the blockchain ecosystem

Utexo’s work aligns with the CTDG Dev Hub’s mission to foster collaboration across blockchains. As a Hub participant, Utexo benefits from a global workforce that can generate ideas, test concepts, and offer feedback, while contributing to Bitcoin’s broader ecosystem. This kind of cross-pollination underscores a shift toward more modular, interoperable tooling that can accelerate practical use cases for Bitcoin-native protocols and their associated asset models. The CTDG environment serves as a proving ground for adapters like wdk-wallet-rgb, helping to surface lessons learned and drive subsequent innovations within the Wallet Development Kit and beyond.

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What to watch next

  • Wider adoption of the wdk-wallet-rgb module by additional wallets within the CTDG Dev Hub and beyond, testing cross-chain compatibility.
  • Subsequent updates to the adapter that broaden support for more RGB-led assets and refine synchronization between on-chain anchors and off-chain state.
  • Expanded documentation and examples to illustrate best practices for backups, encryption, and recovery of RGB-managed state within wallet ecosystems.
  • More feedback from the global developer community and potential integration with other wallet SDKs following similar architectural approaches.

Sources & verification

  • The announcement of RGB support for Tether’s Wallet Development Kit (WDK) through the Utexo SDK, including the adapter concept and its goals.
  • Descriptions of RGB’s off-chain validation model and how on-chain BTC transactions act as anchors for asset state.
  • Explanations of the three core mismatch areas: balance tracking, transaction lifecycle, and state persistence/recovery.
  • Details on the module’s limitations and its scoped role as a wallet integration layer rather than RGB infrastructure.
  • References to CTDG Dev Hub involvement and Utexo’s role within the ecosystem.

Why it matters: a practical path forward for wallet developers

In practical terms, the integration lowers the barrier for wallet developers seeking to support RGB-issued assets without overhauling their core wallet architecture. By aligning RGB issuance and transfers with existing wallet workflows, developers can leverage familiar key management patterns and encrypted backups, reducing the risk of fragmentation across applications that handle off-chain asset state. For users, this could translate into more consistent experiences when managing Bitcoin-native assets issued via RGB, with asset state validated in client-side proofs rather than assumed from on-chain data alone.

From a market perspective, the move underscores ongoing efforts to harmonize Bitcoin’s security model with modern, multi-chain asset issuance. As more wallets adopt modular adapters and as cross-chain tooling matures, users may encounter a more cohesive experience when interacting with off-chain assets anchored to Bitcoin. However, the success of such efforts depends on continued collaboration among developers, clear documentation, and robust security practices around client-side state management and backup workflows.

What to watch next

  • Upcoming releases of the wdk-wallet-rgb module with broader asset support and improved UX workflows.
  • New integrations with other RGB-enabled assets beyond the initial focus on the Tether WDK partnership.
  • Ongoing feedback cycles within CTDG Dev Hub that influence further refinements to wallet integration patterns.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Western Digital (WDC) Stock Rallies 11% on Bernstein’s Bullish Upgrade to Outperform

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WDC Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Bernstein elevated Western Digital to Outperform from Market Perform, raising its price target from $170 to $340.
  • A sharp 21% decline followed concerns about Google’s TurboQuant compression technology — which Bernstein argues poses zero threat to hard drive demand.
  • The firm projects Western Digital and Seagate will achieve combined revenue growth of 24% CAGR between fiscal 2025 and 2030.
  • Western Digital announced an extended timeline for its ePMR technology, potentially indicating a delayed shift to HAMR drives.
  • Seagate remains Bernstein’s preferred stock in the segment, with its price target elevated to $620.

Despite recent volatility, Western Digital maintains a year-to-date gain of approximately 57%, showcasing resilience even through the latest correction.


WDC Stock Card
Western Digital Corporation, WDC

The stock plunge was triggered when Google Research introduced TurboQuant — an advanced compression method designed to optimize KV cache during AI inference operations. Market participants worried this innovation could reduce storage hardware demand.

Bernstein’s Mark Newman firmly rejected this narrative. “There is zero impact to HDD demand,” Newman stated in his research note. He emphasized that TurboQuant’s influence on NAND flash storage, utilized solely for offloading inactive caches, is minimal at best.

According to Bernstein, the market reaction was excessive and unwarranted. Western Digital had tumbled 21% from its recent peak before the analyst’s upgrade. Related companies including Seagate and Sandisk experienced similar pressure.

Upgraded Revenue Projections for Storage Industry

Bernstein has adopted a more constructive stance on the broader storage industry. The research firm now forecasts that Western Digital and Seagate will achieve a combined revenue compound annual growth rate of 24% spanning fiscal years 2025 through 2030.

This represents a substantial upgrade from earlier projections that anticipated 18.7% bits growth accompanied by 3.6% annual price erosion. The updated model incorporates 24% bits expansion with pricing holding steady.

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Newman pointed to several structural growth drivers: expanding AI computational workloads, increasingly sophisticated content production, extended data retention requirements, and strengthening data sovereignty regulations that support both volume growth and pricing power.

Regarding product developments, Western Digital’s 2026 Innovation Day revealed plans to extend its ePMR technology roadmap. The company essentially prolonged the lifecycle of its existing drive architecture by one to two additional years beyond prior expectations.

Questions About HAMR Rollout Timeline

The upgrade contains an important qualification. Newman interprets Western Digital’s continued emphasis on ePMR as an implicit indication that the company’s migration to heat-assisted magnetic recording — commonly referred to as HAMR — might be progressing slower than initially anticipated.

Bernstein’s financial model anticipates Western Digital will begin scaling HAMR production in 2027, representing approximately 5% of nearline exabyte shipments during that year.

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This contrasts sharply with Seagate’s trajectory, where Bernstein projects roughly 70% of nearline volume will utilize HAMR technology by 2027. Seagate continues as the firm’s preferred investment, with its price target increased to $620 from $500.

Western Digital shares climbed approximately 2.3% during Wednesday’s premarket session following the upgrade before accelerating gains throughout regular trading hours.

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can a governance chain become a native L2?

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can a governance chain become a native L2?

Gnosis’ push behind the Ethereum Economic Zone shows DAOs moving from tuning parameters to voting on whether whole chains become Ethereum L2s, tying governance to market structure.

Summary

  • Gnosis and Zisk’s Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ) emerged directly from a GnosisDAO R&D mandate to explore turning Gnosis Chain into a natively integrated Ethereum layer‑2.
  • The framework, co‑funded by the Ethereum Foundation and unveiled at EthCC 2026, aims to fix Ethereum’s “fragmentation problem” by enabling synchronous composability across L2s while keeping ETH as the core gas and settlement asset.
  • The process marks a new phase in on‑chain governance, with DAOs effectively voting on the technical and economic destiny of entire chains, not just on parameter tweaks.

The Ethereum Economic Zone did not appear out of thin air at EthCC 2026; it is the visible tip of a governance process inside Gnosis that has been wrestling with a single strategic question for months: should a long‑running sidechain effectively become a native Ethereum layer‑2. GnosisDAO governance records from February 2026 show community discussions around a six‑month R&D collaboration with zero‑knowledge engineer Jordi Baylina to explore “converting Gnosis Chain (GNO) into a natively integrated Ethereum (ETH) L2 with synchronous composability,” as summarized by analytics site Crypto Whale Data. According to a subsequent note on that same site, “EEZ appears to be the product of that exploration,” effectively weaponizing Gnosis’ internal L2 thesis into a shared framework for the broader ecosystem.

At EthCC in Cannes on March 29, Gnosis co‑founder Friederike Ernst and Baylina formalized that pivot by unveiling the Ethereum Economic Zone, a rollup framework co‑funded by the Ethereum Foundation and pitched as a way to “reassemble Ethereum” into “One Ethereum.” As Binance’s coverage of the announcement notes, the “core commitment” of EEZ is “synchronous composability,” allowing smart contracts on connected rollups to interact with each other and with Ethereum mainnet “within a single atomic transaction” and using ETH as the default gas token. In an EtherWorld write‑up, Ernst is quoted telling the audience that “Ethereum does not have a scaling problem, it has a fragmentation problem,” arguing that every new L2 has become “its own island, separate liquidity, separate deployments, separate bridges that take a cut every time you try to move between them.”

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What makes the Gnosis story different from a routine technical upgrade is the way governance and infrastructure are now fused. As MEXC’s summary of the initiative points out, Gnosis has been active as a layer‑1 for seven years, and its decision to help build EEZ means “a governance‑driven blockchain is actively choosing to tie its future to Ethereum’s rollup‑centric roadmap rather than compete as a standalone L1.” The same report stresses that development is being led by contributors from Gnosis and Baylina’s proving‑stack project Zisk, with the Ethereum Foundation co‑funding the work and a Swiss‑based EEZ Association created to maintain neutrality and invite broader participation.

Market commentators within the ecosystem have seized on the shift. In a widely circulated post, the Bankless account described EEZ as “Ethereum’s fragmentation problem [getting] its most serious answer yet,” emphasizing that it is “led by Gnosis and ZisK, funded by the EF.” A longer explainer published on Binance’s content platform asks, “Can this new framework bring Ethereum back together?” and frames EEZ as an attempt to stop building “more walled gardens” and instead connect existing rollups into “something that actually behaves like a single DeFi economy.”

For GnosisDAO and other token‑holder communities watching closely, the implications are clear. Governance is no longer just about changing interest‑rate curves or fee switches; it is about making existential choices over whether entire chains migrate into tightly coupled rollup frameworks, which settlement asset they prioritize, and how closely they bind themselves to Ethereum’s monetary and security model. The Gnosis‑EEZ path suggests that future DAO votes may increasingly resemble corporate strategy decisions—approve an R&D mandate, explore a structural pivot, then ratify an architecture that can redefine the chain’s economic role—rather than the parameter fine‑tuning that defined DeFi’s first era.

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Visa launches new AI tools to manage the charge dispute process

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Visa launches new AI tools to manage the charge dispute process

Visa Inc. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Visa is launching six new tools using artificial intelligence to modernize the process of disputing credit card charges, the company told CNBC exclusively.

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The digital payments company said the tools are designed to reduce the costs and frustration of “outdated” dispute processes for multiple entities involved in the payments process: merchants, issuers and acquirers.

“Some of the challenges are these back-office systems are still largely manual,” Andrew Torre, Visa’s president of value-added services, told CNBC. “We really had to think differently about how we approach this at scale.”

In 2025, Torre said, Visa processed more than 106 million charge disputes globally, marking a 35% increase since 2019.

“Our goal is to streamline this as much as possible,” Torre said. “We’d love to be able to see that growth rate come down.”

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Visa’s new tools are part of a larger push by major banks and financial institutions to incorporate AI into their businesses — both internally and in consumer-facing applications. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have both said they’re already using AI to hire fewer people. BNY spent $3.8 billion on technology in 2025, or about 19% of its revenue.

Visa said three of its six new tools focus on merchants, allowing them to address potential disputes before they escalate, managing disputes with generative AI responses and providing a deeper level of detail on order insights to manage confusion over unfamiliar charges.

For example, Torre said, many disputes are borne out of cardholders not recognizing a specific charge on their statements. With the new tool, Visa will be able to provide further details to financial institutions to show cardholders that data at a deeper level, according to the company.

The other three tools are built for issuers and acquirers, using predictive AI models to aid in case-by-case analysis, analyzing documents for summaries and auto fill and establishing an AI-powered dispute platform to manage the entire process in one location, Visa said.

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“We’ll be able to get them insights and data so they can move from being reactive to proactive,” Torre said.

Torre said Visa’s new AI tools are part of a broader host of solutions for consumers, including a subscription manager announced last week that allows cardholders to cancel unnecessary subscriptions directly on the manager.

The automation will save time, money and unnecessary confusion for both parties, he added. Most of the tools will be generally available later this year, the company said.

“We really believe that disputes in this solution makes it much easier to manage and resolve,” Torre said. “We think it has better outcomes for everyone.”

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Liquity accused of ‘market manipulation’ after Circle acquisition April Fools’

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Liquity accused of 'market manipulation' after Circle acquisition April Fools'

A crypto April Fool’s bit from protocol firm Liquity, which claimed it was being bought by stablecoin giant Circle, has led to allegations of “market manipulation” after it pumped the price of its in-house token.

Liquity announced on April 1 that it was acquired by Circle in a deal that would allow Circle to offer users “a non-freezable stablecoin and directly distribute yield under the Clarity Act.”

The joke pokes fun at Circle’s ability to freeze tokens and the fact that the Clarity Act, in its current form, seeks to ban yield on stablecoins. 

Read more: ‘Bad actor’ Circle slammed for letting stolen $3M USDC sit unfrozen

Its freezing powers were ridiculed by the crypto investigator ZachXBT last week, who claimed Circle wrongly froze 16 wallets as part of a civil lawsuit. 

Despite the buyout announcement being a joke on Liquity’s part, it still boosted its $LQTY token by 5%.

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The price, however, pulled back in just a few minutes, and is now down 6% from its April 1 peak. 

Crypto users on X weren’t too impressed with the joke, describing it as an “April Fool’s pump and dump.” 

The spike happened seconds after Liquity’s Circle announcement was made.

Read more: WIF fundraiser says Vegas Sphere refunds will start on April Fools

Some said it was an ultra-thin line between a joke and “market manipulation,” while others described the day as an opportunity to “do crime and it’s totally legal!”

Others were more forgiving. DeFi researcher Ignas said that crypto users were losing their minds over a “mere” 5% pump.

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They added, “Good taste joke, IMHO. And good project.”

Other users warned not to base your trading on headlines, as on a day like April Fools’, most of them are “facetious.” 

Read more: ‘Bad actor’ Circle slammed for letting stolen $3M USDC sit unfrozen

In response to the April Fools’ post, Liquity made it clear that it was just a joke, while also promoting its own stablecoin BOLD. 

Additionally, Circle clarified to Protos that the announcement was false, and said “Circle has not acquired Liquity.”

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The theme of crypto April Fools’ is phony acquisitions

There were at least two more fake crypto acquisitions announcements today. Crypto wallet firm Frontrun Pro announced that it had been acquired by AI giant Anthropic as part of a $141 million deal. 

Crypto copy trading account PolyGun also announced that it had been acquired by Anthropic, this time in a transaction worth $69 million. 

Dogecoin also did its own corporate April Fools’ joke, announcing that it would restructure the firm into “DogeCoin Financial Solutions LLC™.”

Barking mad.

Read more: Memescope traders have been left with a case of Monday blues

As part of this, it said it would drop its Shiba Inu logo for something navy blue, stop saying words like “wow,” “much,” and “very,” and rebrand its “Doge army” as “Stakeholders.”

Some users thought it would be funny to pretend that memecoin launcher Pump Fun is finally dropping an airdrop in the form of “Pump Fun rewards.”

The platform announced an airdrop would be coming “soon” 266 days ago. 

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Others joked that Bored Ape Yacht Club had replaced the images of all of its NFTs with photos of actual monkeys and chimps. 

Certainly no monkey business here.

Read more: BAYC goes full ‘laser eyes’ and allegedly blinds ApeFest attendees

A bitcoiner called Didi Taihuttu claimed, while wearing his Bitcoin hat and strutting around a luxury villa, that he would be switching back to traditional banks after crypto had become too volatile. 

All these examples demonstrate that trading headlines on a day like today is risky business, and that firms with financial assets to their names should be careful about just what kind of April Fools’ they run.

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OpenAI raises a record $122 billion as revenue crosses $2 billion per month

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OpenAI raises a record $122 billion as revenue crosses $2 billion per month

Artificial intelligence giant OpenAI has closed $122 billion in committed capital at an $852 billion post-money valuation, a round that dwarfs anything raised in private markets and cements the company as the most valuable startup in history by a wide margin.

The funding was anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with continued participation from Microsoft. SoftBank co-led alongside a16z, D.E. Shaw Ventures, MGX, TPG, and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price.

The investor list reads like a who’s who of global capital — BlackRock, Blackstone, Fidelity, Sequoia, Temasek, Coatue, and ARK Invest all participated.

For the first time, OpenAI opened participation to individual investors through bank channels, raising over $3 billion from that tranche alone.

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OpenAI said it is generating $2 billion in revenue per month, up from $1 billion per quarter at the end of 2024. ChatGPT has more than 900 million weekly active users and over 50 million subscribers. The company claims 6x the monthly web visits and mobile sessions of the next largest AI app, and 4x the total time spent of all other AI apps combined.

Enterprise now makes up more than 40% of revenue and is on track to reach parity with consumer by end of 2026. The company’s APIs process more than 15 billion tokens per minute. Codex, its coding agent, serves over 2 million weekly users, up 5x in three months.

OpenAI also expanded its revolving credit facility to approximately $4.7 billion, supported by JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others. That facility remains undrawn as of March 31.

The company framed the raise around compute as a strategic moat. Its infrastructure strategy now spans cloud partnerships with Microsoft, Oracle, AWS, CoreWeave, and Google Cloud, silicon through Nvidia, AMD, AWS Trainium, Cerebras, and its own custom chip with Broadcom, and data centers through Oracle, SBE, and SoftBank.

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Meanwhile, the company said it is building a “unified AI superapp” that would combine ChatGPT, Codex, browsing, and agentic capabilities into a single product.

The pitch is that as models get more capable, the bottleneck shifts from intelligence to usability, and a single surface lets the company translate model improvements directly into adoption.

The $852 billion valuation places OpenAI above all but a handful of public companies globally. For context, that is roughly the market cap of Berkshire Hathaway, and larger than Visa, JPMorgan Chase, or Samsung.

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Non-USD stablecoin senders on Solana nearly tripled year-over-year, led by EURC and BRZ: Dune

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Non-USD stablecoin senders on Solana nearly tripled year-over-year, led by EURC and BRZ: Dune


Solana’s non-USD stablecoin adoption surged nearly threefold in the past year, driven by EURC and BRZ growth alongside institutional integrations from Visa, Stripe, PayPal, Mastercard, and Western Union.

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ZEC dips 3.5% despite broader crypto market’s recovery

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ZEC dips 3.5% despite broader crypto market’s recovery

Key takeaways

  • ZCash is one of the worst performers among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap, down 3.5% in the last 24 hours.
  • The coin could rally higher in the near term amid demand for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. 

ZEC slips as broader market recovers

ZEC, the native coin of the Zcash ecosystem, is down by 3.5% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the worst performers among the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

It is trading at $241 per coin, down from the $257 recorded on Tuesday. The bearish performance comes amid a decline in Zcash’s derivatives data.

According to CoinGlass, ZEC’s futures’ Open Interest (OI) reads $438 million, down from the $473 million recorded on Tuesday, reflecting the decreased notional value of open contracts.
Typically, an OI decline during a dip in spot price reaffirms the bearish narrative as traders anticipate further recovery.

Technical outlook: Will Zcash price recover above $250 soon?

The ZEC/USD 4-hour chart is bullish but inefficient as Zcash’s price faced rejection above the $250 psychological level. 

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It is currently trading below its 50-day EMA of $248c, suggesting that the bulls failed to take advantage of the recent rally. 

Despite that, the near-term bias is cautiously bullish as ZEC holds above the recent lows, while remaining capped beneath the long-standing descending resistance line.

If the bulls regain control and ZEC’s daily candle closes above $250, it would confirm the upside breakout and open the path toward the 200-day EMA at $274, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $362. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned higher above the signal line and moved back into positive territory on the 4-hour chart, suggesting strengthening upside pressure. 

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ZEC/USD 4H Chart

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 reinforces the recovery of bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

On the downside, if the rejection candle holds, ZEC could drop towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $231, followed by the rising trendline near the $200 psychological support level.

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Bitcoin’s crashes are shrinking, and Wall Street is starting to notice

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What next as BTC plunges under $81,000

Bitcoin’s reputation has historically been built on extreme boom-and-bust cycles, with steep drawdowns of up to 90% following all-time highs.

This cycle, however, the decline has been closer to 50%, a shift that analysts said reflects the maturation of BTC as an asset class.

“Bitcoin’s drawdowns compressing to about 50% is a sign of a maturing market structure,” AdLunam co-founder and market analyst Jason Fernandes told CoinDesk.

“As liquidity deepens and institutional participation increases, volatility naturally compresses on both the upside and the downside,” he added, saying that “at that point, the narrative shifts from questioning its legitimacy to optimizing allocation.”

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Fernandes’ comments are in response to Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright’s X post Tuesday, in which he noted growth is becoming “less impulsive,” with a reduced probability of extreme downside events as bitcoin matures.

‘Less dramatic’

Wainwright pointed out that the current drawdown from the Oct. 6 all-time-high of just over $126,200 is much less significant than previous pullbacks.

“Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous and downside risk has also been less dramatic,” he said.

Fernandes and Wainwright, of course, were referring to previous “bust” periods, most notably following the peaks of 2013 and 2017.

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After reaching a high of approximately $1,163 in late 2013, bitcoin entered a prolonged “crypto winter” that saw its price plummet to around $152 by January 2015, representing a drawdown of roughly 87%. A similar pattern was seen after the 2017 bull run, when it reached $20,000 in December before plummeting roughly 84% to $3,122 over the following 12 months.

Not all analysts agree that deeper drawdowns are off the table.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone told CoinDesk that he believes bitcoin could still see a “normal reversion” toward $10,000, arguing that “the crypto bubble is over” and that any downturn could coincide with broader declines across equities, commodities and other risk assets.

However, Fernandes, who has previously dissented with McGlone’s $10,000 forecast, said that scale itself is part of the story. As bitcoin grows into a larger asset class, the likelihood of 90% collapses diminishes simply because the capital required to drive such moves is too great. That effect is reinforced by institutional integration, from ETFs to pension exposure, which makes large-scale unwinds structurally harder.

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Portfolio ‘efficiency’ enhancer

The shift is already showing up in portfolio construction.

“The portfolio data is really what shifts institutional behavior,” Fernandes said. “If a small 1% to 3% allocation can materially improve returns and Sharpe ratios without significantly increasing drawdowns, then bitcoin starts to function less like a standalone bet and more like an efficiency enhancer within a diversified portfolio.”

That framing changes the risk calculus. “The risk isn’t about owning bitcoin anymore,” Fernandes stated. “It’s the opportunity cost of having no exposure at all.”

Recent Fidelity research supports that transition. In a 10-year comparison across major asset classes, bitcoin delivered roughly 20,000% returns, significantly outperforming equities, gold, and bonds, while also leading on risk-adjusted measures despite its volatility.

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“Bitcoin remains a relatively young asset, yet it has quickly matured into a major asset class and has been the top-performing asset in 11 out of the past 15 years,” the report noted.

At the same time, the tradeoff is becoming clearer.

“There’s a tradeoff here that’s worth articulating,” Fernandes said. “As bitcoin matures and volatility compresses, you should also expect returns to normalize. The asymmetric upside of the early cycles came with extreme drawdowns, but as those drawdowns shrink, the asset increasingly behaves like a macro allocation rather than a venture-style bet.”

That brings it back to the drawdowns.

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If bitcoin is no longer falling 80%, and portfolios can benefit from small allocations without materially increasing risk, then the asset is evolving into something more investible and usable, Fernandes said, concluding that for institutions, that may be the real inflection point.

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Fed Governor Miran still backs cuts, says interest rates could be ‘about a point’ lower this year

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Watch CNBC's full interview with Fed governor Stephen Miran
Watch CNBC's full interview with Fed governor Stephen Miran

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Monday continued his campaign for lower interest rates, telling CNBC that policymakers should disregard the current energy price spike unless there are signs it will have longer-lasting impacts.

“If I saw a wage-price spiral, or I saw evidence that inflation expectations are starting to pick up, then I would get worried about it,” he said during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. “There’s no evidence of it thus far, and you can move the monetary policy rate all you want — today tomorrow — but it’s not going to affect inflation the next couple of months.”

Citing market-based indicators, Miran said inflation expectations remain well anchored, despite the jump in oil to more than $100 a barrel and a price shock at the pump that has pushed gasoline higher by more than $1 a gallon.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran: The labor market was on a gradual cooling trend for three years

Monetary policy works with a lag and isn’t geared toward short-term market gyrations, he added.

Miran has dissented at each of the meetings he has attended since September 2025. He told CNBC that he continues to think “we could be about a point easier, gradually done over the course of a year.”

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The fed funds rate is currently targeted in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Market pricing is implying no moves in either direction before the end of the year.

Miran’s term has expired, but he continues to serve as the nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is held up in the Senate Banking Committee. If confirmed, Warsh will take over as chair for Jerome Powell when the latter’s term expires in May.

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Crypto World

Gen Z Embraces Bitcoin as a Core Portfolio Diversifier

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A new generation of investors is drawing crypto deeper into mainstream portfolios, even as it grapples with the asset class’s well-known volatility. Gen Z’s appetite for risk and its digital-native approach to money are shaping both the demand for cryptocurrencies and the conversation around how to manage that risk within a diversified portfolio. Findings from survey data and market commentary point to a multi-faceted dynamic: strong interest in crypto, tempered by an awareness of risk and a heavy influence from social platforms and online narratives.

According to Betterment’s 2025 Retail Survey, 64% of Gen Z and 49% of millennials say they are willing to take on more investment risk. This willingness to push the envelope aligns with a broader tilt toward crypto among younger cohorts. Separately, YouGov’s 2025 US Investment Trends report highlights that nearly two-thirds of Gen Z plan to invest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin this year, underscoring crypto’s rising status as a core consideration for younger investors. The combination of greater risk tolerance and a crypto-forward mindset suggests a structural shift in how Gen Z approaches wealth-building, beyond mere speculation.

That said, the Gen Z approach is not blind to risk. Crypto volatility remains a central concern for many, and the generation is keenly aware that price swings occur around the clock. Investopedia notes that while crypto is widely recognized as risky and volatile, many Gen Z investors continue to participate, viewing volatility as part of an entry price rather than a barrier to participation. In other words, recognition of risk does not appear to suppress the impulse to participate; it may even be embedded in the way they frame potential returns.

Key takeaways

  • 64% of Gen Z and 49% of millennials are willing to take on more investment risk, according to Betterment’s 2025 Retail Survey.
  • YouGov’s 2025 US Investment Trends report finds that nearly two-thirds of Gen Z intend to invest in cryptocurrencies this year.
  • 84% of Gen Z acknowledge that cryptocurrencies are risky and volatile, yet they continue to invest, signaling a structural willingness to tolerate risk for potentially outsized gains.
  • Financial FOMO drives behavior: about 70% of Gen Z report feeling financial FOMO while scrolling social media, and roughly half have made an investment influenced by that feeling, often in crypto or memecoins.
  • For many young investors, crypto remains a digital-native asset class with appeal tied to high-growth narratives, but concerns about transparency and regulation persist as the market evolves.

Gen Z’s risk calculus in a digital era

Crypto’s appeal to Gen Z appears inseparable from the broader online ecosystem that shapes their financial world. Gen Z has grown up with the internet, digital wallets, and instant access to markets, which makes digital assets feel native rather than futuristic. The survey data illustrate a generation that is comfortable testing new assets, even as it calibrates its risk exposure to reflect a volatile, 24/7 market environment. The correlation between online influence and investment behavior becomes especially salient when considering how financial guidance is consumed. A notable share of younger investors turns to social platforms for insights, which elevates the importance of evaluating the quality and accountability of information accessed through these channels.

One dimension often cited in this context is how young investors source financial advice. Kiplinger’s coverage notes that about one in four Gen Z Americans obtain financial guidance from TikTok, a statistic that signals the growing role of “finfluencers” in shaping investment decisions. That dynamic, combined with the rapid dissemination of memes and viral narratives, helps explain why certain crypto stories gain outsized attention—even when the underlying fundamentals are murkier than traditional investment vehicles. In this environment, investors must balance curiosity with due diligence and a clear understanding of risk rewards.

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Volatility, FOMO and the memecoin cycle

Volatility remains the price of admission for crypto, and Gen Z is not naïve about it. The generation’s understanding of risk reflects a paradox: while they recognize the inherent instability of digital assets, they are drawn by the prospect of outsized profits in a relatively new asset class. The tension between risk awareness and aspirational returns is compounded by social dynamics. Empower’s research on financial FOMO shows that 70% of Gen Z feel this pressure while scrolling social media, and a CFA Institute study cited in the broader discussion indicates that about 50% of Gen Z investors say they have made an investment driven by FOMO, often in crypto or memecoins. In other words, fear of missing out is translating into real capital allocation decisions, particularly toward assets that can deliver rapid visibility and engagement on social platforms.

The memecoin phenomenon sits at the intersection of virality, community hype, and speculative appetite. These tokens are designed to capture attention and momentum, delivering quick, event-driven price action that can attract new participants while amplifying the narrative around crypto’s potential. While this dynamic can drive activity and liquidity, it also raises questions about sustainability, risk management, and the long-term viability of such assets in a diversified portfolio. The cycle—rapid gains followed by swift corrections—has repeatedly underscored the risks associated with chasing headlines rather than fundamentals. As a result, even as crypto admissions rise among younger cohorts, memecoins can reinforce a broader skepticism about the safety and reliability of digital assets as a standalone investment thesis.

Beyond the hype, the behavioral profile of Gen Z investors highlights a broader diversification conversation. Some observers point to crypto as a potential portfolio diversifier, particularly as parts of the traditional market landscape exhibit different risk and return drivers. Yet the same conversations underscore real caveats: during periods of systemic stress, crypto has shown correlations with high-growth equities and even, at times, with traditional safe-haven narratives like gold. That raises practical questions for portfolio construction: if crypto participates in downside markets or moves in tandem with riskier equities, its diversification benefits may be more nuanced than initially assumed. For any investor, understanding when crypto serves as a genuine diversifier versus when it behaves as a high-beta, risk-on asset is essential to avoid overexposure or misaligned expectations.

Another critical theme is the lack of universal transparency and a clear regulatory framework across crypto markets. As a technology- and asset-class experiment in real-time, digital assets have not always benefited from the disclosures and governance that accompany traditional securities. MDPI’s analysis of cognitive biases, including the Dunning-Kruger effect, suggests that younger investors may overestimate their understanding of crypto and underestimate the risks, underscoring the need for robust education and clear regulatory guardrails. In the absence of consistent reporting standards and enforcement, the allure of quick profits can eclipse prudent risk assessment, increasing the likelihood of regrettable losses for inexperienced participants.

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Regulation, transparency and the road ahead

While Gen Z’s crypto engagement signals a maturation of digital assets within the retail space, observers agree that regulatory clarity and improved transparency are critical for sustaining long-term participation. The tension between a rapidly evolving technology stack and the slower, more deliberate pace of policy development creates a dynamic where innovation can outpace guardrails, at least in the near term. As policymakers and industry participants negotiate better disclosure, custody standards, and product-level protections, the trajectory of Gen Z’s crypto involvement will hinge on how effectively those guardrails translate into real-world investor protections without stifling innovation.

Some researchers and market observers frame this moment as a test of crypto’s legitimacy as an investable asset class for a new generation. If regulators deliver calibrated, investor-centric rules and platforms improve transparency, crypto could expand from being a niche interest to a more mainstream, risk-aware component of diversified portfolios. Conversely, persistent gaps in transparency or regulatory uncertainty could amplify the very volatility and hype-driven dynamics that have driven memecoin cycles, potentially eroding trust among young buyers who expect clarity and accountability from market participants.

Related coverage in the broader crypto media ecosystem has noted regulators’ concerns about finfluencers and the need for responsible information dissemination, particularly as Gen Z ownership grows. For readers tracking the evolution of this space, pay attention to shifts in regulatory posture, custody and exchange standards, and how platforms adapt to the dual pressures of innovation and investor protection. As the market evolves, the balance between opportunity and risk will likely redefine crypto’s role in Gen Z portfolios.

Investors should watch how education, transparency, and policy alignment impact Generation Z’s crypto participation. The coming months may reveal whether this generation’s early-adopter behavior becomes a durable, risk-aware investment habit or whether volatility and information gaps pull the brakes on broader adoption.

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Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer at B2PRIME Group, offers this perspective: crypto’s journey into mainstream investing is less about a single narrative of boom-and-bust and more about how a new generation learns to navigate risk, trust, and accountability in a rapidly changing financial landscape.

This opinion piece reflects the author’s view and is not an endorsement of any specific asset. Readers should conduct their own research and consider regulatory developments, platform protections, and risk management practices before making investment decisions.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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