Nancy Guthrie, the 84 year-old mother of Today host Savannah Guthrie, was kidnapped from her rural Tuscon, Arizona home on February 1. While law enforcement has refused to confirm or deny whether two ransom notes sent to TMZ, KOLD, and KGUN were real, the media is operating under the assumption that they are.

The notes included two deadlines — one that passed without any updates and another that TMZ states has “an element of ‘or else’” — and demanded $6 million worth of bitcoin (BTC).

Media outlets haven’t clarified if the abductors are demanding a specific amount of BTC or a specific amount valued in dollars. If they’re demanding a specific number of BTC, the recent fall in the price could actually suggest that more than $6 million worth of the cryptocurrency was originally demanded.

As of today, $6 million would equate to roughly 85 BTC, on February 1, it would be 75-76 BTC.

Savannah Guthrie has hosted NBC’s coverage of three recent Olympic games, however, she’s understandably unable to host this year.

During the opening ceremony, three hosts acknowledged her difficult situation and wished her well.

A hoax and a second note

In a confusing set of circumstances, a man from California sent the Guthries a fake ransom demand shortly before the likely real kidnappers, who had originally stated they wouldn’t contact any media or the family in the first note, sent a second ransom note.

A local reporter at KOLD spoke to CNN and stated that the note was shorter than the first and seemed to be an attempt to provide some sort of proof they still had Guthrie in their possession.

Reporters have suggested that the emailed ransom demands are extremely secure and unlikely to be traced.

Read more: Crypto execs hiring private security after high-profile kidnappings, report

Sloppy or brilliant?

It is difficult to establish whether the Guthrie abductors are brilliant, investigators have been sloppy, or some combination of the two.

Surprises have included that there has reportedly been no footage obtained of either the perpetrators or the vehicle(s) in which they escaped, no suggestion that a so-called “proof-of-life” has been shared with the family, and that the abductors used BTC instead of a coin that is easier to shield, such as Monero or Zcash.

It’s unknown if the kidnappers have demanded the BTC be sent to a single wallet address or want it broken up, or if they believe they know an exchange or mixer that would reliably accept the BTC and not be easily traced.

Damning for law enforcement is the fact that they have combed through the crime scene in Tuscon at least three times and have yet to come up with any leads or new information to share with the public.

A deadline and an introduction

It’s still unclear which timezone the 5:00pm deadline refers to or what threat is being levelled. The Guthries have sent out a distressing, public video in which they speak directly to the kidnappers.

“We received your message and we understand. We beg you now to return our mother to us so that we can celebrate with her. This is the only way that we will have peace. This is very valuable to us and we will pay.”

While there’s little doubt that this horrifying crime has had a profound effect on the Guthrie family, Savannah Guthrie’s co-workers at Today, and others close to her, it’s also becoming more clear that entirely new demographics of the US population are about to be introduced to one of the absolute darkest sides to crypto.

The Today show averages almost 3 million viewers a day, with those who regularly tune in skewing older.

This means that an ongoing and growing global problem — that crypto is enabling kidnappers and extortionists to set up scam call centers or abduct the mother of a wealthy celebrity — will begin to finally worry older Americans.

Perhaps a new issue for the “Crypto President.”

Not surprising, but shocking

Anyone who’s been following crypto for the past several years has heard about pig butchering.

The scam works by luring victims, usually from developing nations like China and Thailand, to vast scam call center campuses almost always located in Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar.

Once the victim arrives, they’re imprisoned in apartment blocks and offices where they’re forced to cold text and call Westerners and romance them in a long con to get crypto.

The DeFi super application space is facing headwinds following the Infinex token generation event (TGE) in January, but despite the adverse market conditions, Yearn Finance founder Andre Cronje is launching Flying Tulip’s (FT) public sale next week.

Flying Tulip confirmed the sale date on Saturday, and prediction markets are giving the platform a 50-50 chance of trading above a $400 million fully diluted valuation (FDV), albeit on low volumes.

For comparison, Infinex’s INX token is trading at a $121 million FDV, leaving ICO participants at a 60% loss from its $300 million ICO valuation.

Flying Tulip looks to fill a similar niche as Infinex, offering users a single platform that allows them to leverage some of DeFi’s most popular applications, including perpetual derivatives trading, spot trading, and lending.

However, Cronje has highlighted that the “Flying Tulip FDV is not standard FDV.” In a traditional model, FDV equates to the total supply multiplied by the token price, whereas the FT token includes an underlying put option, making it “closer to a NAV valuation than FDV.”

The protocol raised $200 million from the likes of Brevan Howard and DWF Labs in September, followed by a $25 million raise at a $1 billion valuation in January, $55 million via Impossible Finance, and $10 million via CoinList last week.

Flying Tulip is the YearnFi founder’s latest DeFi endeavor after Fantom, the Layer-1 blockchain that rebranded as Sonic. While Sonic started out hot, the token has struggled over the last year and is down 96% from its launch price, trading at a $160 million FDV.

Rising miner deposits to Binance signal near-term supply pressure despite whale accumulation during the dip.

Bitcoin miners have sent more than 90,000 BTC to Binance since early February, pushing miner exchange inflows to their highest level since 2024, according to on-chain data shared by Arab Chain.

The rise in deposits comes during a period of heavy price swings and stressed investor sentiment, adding to short-term sell-side pressure even as other large holders moved in the opposite direction.

Miner Selling Rises as Volatility Shakes the Market

Data cited by Arab Chain shows miner activity picking up immediately after the start of February, with one day alone recording deposits of over 24,000 BTC to Binance. Such transfers often reflect miners converting part of their holdings to cover operating costs or lock in profits during volatile conditions, making these flows a gauge of potential sell-side supply.

The timing is notable, as Bitcoin experienced a steep correction last week that briefly pushed prices below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, extending a drawdown of more than 50% from the last all-time high, according to analysis posted by Darkfost.

During that window, nearly 241,000 BTC flowed into exchanges across the market, with Binance seeing especially heavy activity from short-term holders. Darkfost described these flows as consistent with capitulation, particularly among investors reacting to rapid losses.

Retail behavior also shifted, with Darkfost noting that holders with less than 1 BTC, often referred to as “shrimps,” heavily increased transfers to Binance after the sell-off. On February 5, their daily inflows topped 1,000 BTC, far above the monthly average of around 365 BTC. However, that spike eased as prices stabilized, suggesting selling pressure from this group faded once Bitcoin recovered above $70,000.

Whales Accumulate as Price Steadies Near $70,000

While miners and smaller holders sent coins to exchanges, large holders took the opposite approach. Analyst CW8900 reported on February 8 that whales accumulated aggressively during the drop, with nearly 67,000 BTC moving into long-term accumulator addresses in a single day, the largest such inflow of this cycle.

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Price action since then reflects that tug-of-war, with Bitcoin now trading at just over $70,000 per CoinGecko, a figure that is up about 1% on the day but still down nearly 8% over the past week and more than 22% in the last 30 days. The rebound followed a sharp fall from the mid-$80,000 range, part of a broader slide that erased gains made after the U.S. election and dragged major altcoins down by double digits.

Sentiment remains fragile, a state highlighted by the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which fell to its lowest reading since 2019, even after prices bounced from the lows. As things stand, elevated miner inflows point to ongoing supply hitting the market, while whale accumulation and reduced retail selling suggest that selling pressure is no longer one-sided, with BTC attempting to hold above $70,000.

Bitcoin miner Cango (CANG) completed the sale 4,451 BTC over the weekend, raising roughly $305 million in USDT as it looks to reduce leverage and reposition its business around artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The company said it raised $305 million from the sale, suggesting an average sale price of about $68,524 per coin, or not far above multi-year low prices for bitcoin.

Shares are little-changed in Monday trading, but are lower by 83% on a year-over-year basis.

The company’s bitcoin sales were “based on a comprehensive assessment of current market conditions,” the firm said, as it plans to shift into AI computing infrastructure. Cango plans to deploy modular GPU units across its global network of over 40 sites to serve small and mid-sized businesses needing on-demand AI inference capacity, it said.

The company used the proceeds of its BTC sale to pay down a bitcoin-collateralized loan, bolstering its balance sheet. The company still holds 3,645 BTC worth more than $250 million, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.

“In response to recent market conditions, we have made a treasury adjustment to strengthen balance sheet and reduce financial leverage, which provides increased capacity to fund our strategic expansion into AI compute infrastructure,” the company wrote in a letter to shareholders.

Its move into the AI sector comes as it faces what it framed as a gap between rising compute demand and existing grid capacity. Cango wrote that it’s well positioned to take advantage of that gap.

Cango is not alone. A growing group of bitcoin miners is scaling back exposure to pure mining and redirecting capital and infrastructure toward AI data centers and high-performance computing.

Bitfarms (BITF) has said it plans to exit crypto mining entirely by around 2027, and famously declared it’s no longer a bitcoin company as it shifts to high-performance computing and AI workloads.

Analysts at KBW have warned that the industry’s pivot toward AI workloads is compelling, but that the path to monetization is fraught with execution risks. That led to a downgrade not only on Bitfarms but also in Bitdeer (BTDR) and Hive Digital (HIVE).

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been using its X marketing budget to advertise STRC, its quasi-pegged, 11.25% dividend-yielding preferred share. Unfortunately, that expensive, direct response ad campaign didn’t yield any results for shareholders last week.

For the week of February 2-8, Strategy didn’t sell any new shares of STRC nor any other preferred shares. It only succeeded in taking out the bid on its common stock, MSTR, to raise capital from its so-called at-the-market (ATM) shareholder dilution program.

Worse, its ad campaign didn’t yield any results in the prior week. From January 26 to February 1, the company failed to sell any preferred shares.

TLDR

• The European Commission intends to impose interim measures on Meta over its exclusion of third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp.
• The Commission believes Meta’s actions breach EU antitrust laws, potentially harming competition in the AI market.
• Teresa Ribera emphasized the need for swift action to prevent dominant companies from using unfair advantages.
• Meta argues that the WhatsApp API is not a key distribution channel for AI assistants and denies antitrust violations.
• The EU has previously fined Apple, Meta, and Google for breaching various competition and data protection regulations.

The European Commission has announced its intention to impose interim measures against Meta for excluding third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp. The Commission believes Meta’s actions breach EU antitrust rules. An ongoing investigation will determine the final decision, with Meta being given the opportunity to defend itself.

EU Signals Preliminary Action Against Meta’s WhatsApp Policy

According to a CNBC report, the European Commission informed Meta of its preliminary view that the company violated EU antitrust regulations. The Commission stated that Meta’s policy change, which bans third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp, could harm competition in the AI market.

In response, the Commission warned that it may quickly impose interim measures to prevent this policy from irreparably damaging competition in Europe. The Commission emphasized that the rapid development of AI markets requires swift action to preserve access for competitors.

The Commission’s Commissioner for Competition, Teresa Ribera, highlighted the need for fair competition in digital markets. She said, “We need to prevent dominant tech companies from leveraging their position to harm competitors.” Ribera emphasized that Meta’s new policy could give it an unfair advantage, impacting smaller companies and AI assistants in the market. These measures aim to ensure that competitors can still access WhatsApp while the investigation proceeds.

Meta’s Response to EU Investigation

Meta responded to the Commission’s claims, arguing that there was no need for EU intervention in the WhatsApp Business API. A Meta spokesperson stated that people can still access AI assistants from app stores and other platforms. “The WhatsApp Business API is not a key distribution channel for these chatbots,” the spokesperson added. Meta maintains that its updated policy does not violate antitrust regulations.

The company further explained that AI options are widely available outside of WhatsApp. It also criticized the Commission’s logic, stating that the WhatsApp API does not significantly impact the distribution of AI assistants. However, the EU’s investigation will continue to examine the matter, with interim measures under consideration until a final ruling is made.

This move comes amid a broader pattern of fines imposed on U.S. tech companies by the European Union. In April, Apple was fined 500 million euros for breaching anti-steering obligations. That same month, Meta was fined 200 million euros for failing to offer users a service that uses less personal data. In September, Google faced a massive 2.95 billion euro fine for breaching EU competition laws.

Key points:

• Bitcoin’s relief rally is facing selling near $72,000, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

• Several major altcoins are facing selling at higher levels, indicating that the sentiment remains negative.

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped closer to $69,500, indicating that the bears are selling on rallies. Several analysts believe that BTC’s bottom is still not in. Trader BitBull said in a post on X that BTC’s “real bottom will form below $50,000, where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”

A different view point was put forth by crypto sentiment platform Santiment. In a report on Saturday, the Santiment team said that data suggests the fall to $60,000 may have been a genuine bottom. However, for a sustained recovery, the market has to sustain above the key support level, and whales must continue their tentative accumulation.

Another positive for the bulls is that the BTC Sharpe ratio has fallen to -10, which historically indicates the final phases of bear markets, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Although the readings do not confirm that the bear market is over, it indicates that the risk-to-reward profile may be reaching extreme levels.

Could BTC and the major altcoins start a strong relief rally, or will the downtrend resume? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. 

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below the ascending channel pattern on Thursday, but the bulls could not sustain the lower levels.

The index came roaring back on Friday and surged above the moving averages. That shows the break below the channel may have been a bear trap. The bulls will attempt to push the price to the resistance line, where the bears are expected to step in.

The 20-day exponential moving average (6,917) is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. A close above the resistance line might start the next leg of the uptrend toward 7,290.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose above the 20-day EMA (97.67) on Thursday, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.

The price plunged sharply below the 20-day EMA on Monday, signaling that the bears are attempting to take control. There is strong support in the 96.21 to 95.51 support zone, but if the bears prevail, the index might collapse to 91.88.

Instead, if the price turns up sharply from the current level or the support zone and rises above the moving averages, it signals that the index might extend its stay inside the 96.21 to 100.54 range for some more time.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC’s recovery is stalling just below the breakdown level of $74,508, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($78,142) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate an advantage to sellers. If the price turns down from $74,508 or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again strive to pull the BTC/USDT pair toward $60,000.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the Bitcoin price breaks above the 20-day EMA. That suggests solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then rally toward the 50-day SMA ($86,636).

Ether price prediction

Ether’s (ETH) relief rally is facing selling at the $2,111 level, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

If the price decisively closes above the $2,111 level, the ETH/USDT pair may climb to the 20-day EMA ($2,447). This is a crucial resistance to watch out for, as a break above it suggests that the bearish momentum has weakened. The Ether price may then rise to the 50-day SMA ($2,877).

Sellers will have to aggressively defend the $2,111 level to retain their advantage. If they do that, the $1,750 level may be at risk of breaking down. The pair may then slump to $1,537.

BNB price prediction

BNB’s (BNB) relief rally is facing selling near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $676, indicating a negative sentiment.

If the price slips below $602, the bears will attempt to yank the BNB/USDT pair below the $570 support. If they manage to do that, the pair may plummet to $500. 

Contrarily, if bulls push the BNB price above $676, the pair may ascend to the breakdown level of $730. Sellers are expected to defend the $730 to $790 zone as a break above it suggests that the bulls are back in the game. The pair might then surge to the 50-day SMA ($849).

XRP price prediction

Buyers have maintained XRP (XRP) above the support line of the descending channel pattern but are struggling to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.63).

If the price turns down and breaks below the support line, it indicates that the bears remain in charge. The XRP/USDT pair may then retest the $1.11 level. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.11 level with all their might, as a break below it may sink the pair to $1 and then to $0.75.

Buyers will have to propel the XRP price above the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand in the short term. The pair may then march toward the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line suggests the start of a new up move.

Solana price prediction

Solana’s (SOL) relief rally is facing selling just below the breakdown level of $95, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.

If the Solana price continues lower and breaks below $77, it suggests that the bears remain in command. The SOL/USDT pair may then retest the $67 level, which is likely to act as a strong support.

Sellers are expected to defend the zone between the 20-day EMA ($104) and the $95 level, as a close above it signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then march toward the 50-day SMA ($123).

Related: Bitcoin whales took advantage of $60K price dip, scooping up 40K BTC

Dogecoin price prediction

Sellers are attempting to halt Dogecoin’s (DOGE) relief rally at the psychological level of $0.10.

If the Dogecoin price turns down from the current level, it increases the possibility of a break below the $0.08 level. The DOGE/USDT pair may then resume its downtrend and nosedive to $0.06.

Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.11) to suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening. The pair may then march toward the $0.13 level.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano’s (ADA) shallow bounce off the support line of the descending channel pattern indicates that the bears are selling on rallies.

If the Cardano price turns down from the current level, the bears will again attempt to tug the ADA/USDT pair below the support line. If they can pull it off, the pair may collapse to the next support at $0.20.

Conversely, a break above the 20-day EMA ($0.30) suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. The buyers will gain the upper hand on a close above the downtrend line. The pair may then ascend to the breakdown level of $0.50.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($543), indicating a bearish sentiment.

If the price continues lower and breaks below $497, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The BCH/USDT pair may then drop toward the crucial support at $443, where the buyers are expected to step in.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to negate the bearish view. If they do that, the Bitcoin Cash price may climb to the 50-day SMA ($585).