Key takeaways:

• Half of the $6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest is tied to long-shot strategies used for hedging and neutral price strategies.
• The 9% put (sell) options premium hints that professional traders are worried about a potential Bitcoin price drop.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have high hopes for the year-end options expiry on Dec. 25, which features $6 billion at stake. The 33% price gain since the $60,130 yearly low on Feb. 6 have played a major role in bringing back bullish expectations. However, the huge amount of call (buy) options targeting $115,000 and higher for Dec. 25 raises questions about whether bulls are overconfident.

December Bitcoin call (buy) options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: Deribit

Deribit exchange holds a 92% market share in December’s Bitcoin options open interest at $5.5 billion. However, the actual value at expiry will be much lower. Many of these instruments were placed on unlikely outcomes as a hedge or for neutral strategies that do not require large price moves to remain profitable.

Bitcoin call options dominate, but both sides have unrealistic bets

Put (sell) options are underrepresented by 56% on Deribit compared to call options. Crypto traders are known for being bullish, so the put-to-call ratio is usually skewed. Still, the $1.85 billion in open interest in call options targeting $115,000 and higher is significant. This setup makes it worth comparing how optimistic call options are versus the puts.

December Bitcoin put (sell) options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: Deribit

The high volume of put options targeting $55,000 and lower is also notable, totaling $1 billion in open interest. This means the percentage of bets considered improbable is similar for both sides, sitting at roughly 50% of the open interest in each segment. If bulls are seen as overly optimistic, then the bears appear equally extreme in their pessimism.

December Bitcoin options pricing at Deribit on May 7. Source: Deribit

Beyond serving as a counterbalance in strategies with different expiry dates, a call option at $120,000 offers cheap exposure to extreme upside events. Based on Deribit prices on May 7, a buyer pays $2,202 to secure unlimited upside exposure to the equivalent of one full Bitcoin at a price of $120,000 or higher on Dec. 25.

The options skew metric provides a clearer view of professional traders’ comfort levels regarding both upside and downside price risks.

Related: Bitcoin holds $81K amid flat derivatives markets–Is rally sustainable?

Bitcoin 6-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit: Source: Laevitas

Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent calls, signaling moderate fear of downside price movements in Bitcoin. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should range between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives metrics, investor optimism was not substantially impacted by the rally to $80,000.

Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in December call options should not be interpreted as a sign of excessive bullish confidence.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

TLDR

• BitMine may slow its Ethereum purchases as it approaches its 5% supply target.
• Chairman Tom Lee said the company could reach the 5% goal within six weeks at its current pace.
• BitMine held 5.18 million ETH as of May 3, equal to 4.29% of total supply.
• The company bought 101,745 ETH in the previous week to advance its target.
• BitMine staked 4.36 million ETH, worth about $10.2 billion at recent prices.

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BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said the company may reduce its Ethereum buying pace as it nears a 5% supply target. He made the remarks at Consensus 2026 in Miami on Thursday. He said the company could reach its goal within six weeks if it maintains its current purchase rate.

BitMine Reassesses ETH Buying Strategy

Lee said BitMine may slow purchases as it approaches its internal threshold. He stated, “I do think we’re going to slow down our pace of buying.” He added, “I’m not sure we want to get to 5% too quickly.”

He explained that the company continues to review its capital allocation plans. He said other priorities now compete for funding within the crypto sector. He pointed to the company’s recent New York Stock Exchange listing and a $4 billion share repurchase authorization.

BitMine reported that it held 5.18 million ETH as of May 3. The company said this amount equals 4.29% of Ethereum’s 120.7 million total supply. It added that it reached 86% of its “Alchemy of 5%” objective after buying 101,745 ETH last week.

Lee said the company could reach the 5% level within six weeks at the same pace. However, he stressed that management may adjust the accumulation rate. He said the firm wants to balance growth with other operational goals.

Ethereum Holdings and Staking Operations Expand

BitMine disclosed that it staked 4.36 million ETH as of May 3. The company valued those holdings at about $10.2 billion based on a $2,336 ETH price. Tom Lee said annualized staking revenue reached $297 million.

He said the firm’s own staking operations generated a 2.91% annualized seven-day yield. He highlighted staking as a core part of the treasury strategy. He said ETH remains the company’s primary reserve asset.

The company reported total crypto, cash, and moonshot holdings of $13.1 billion. These holdings include 200 BTC and $700 million in cash. It also holds equity stakes in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings.

Lee reiterated his broader Ethereum outlook during the event. He said Wall Street tokenization supports Ethereum adoption. He also said agentic AI systems require public and neutral blockchains.

ETH traded near $2,300 at press time, down about 2% on the day. Meanwhile, BMNR traded near $21.97. The company’s market capitalization stood at about $11.8 billion at that time.

Prediction market platform Kalshi said it raised $1 billion in fresh funding at a $22 billion valuation, as institutional investors increasingly turn to event contracts for trading and hedging.

The Series F round was led by Coatue and included Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Paradigm, IVP, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest, according to a Thursday press release. The news confirmed a Bloomberg report in March about the investment round and valuation.

The firm said it plans to use the capital to expand institutional services, including block trading tools, broker integrations and new risk products aimed at asset managers and insurance firms.

The fundraising comes as prediction markets have gained momentum in crypto and traditional finance alike as firms look for alternative ways to gauge probabilities and manage risk. Hedge funds and proprietary trading firms increasingly use event contracts alongside conventional derivatives to hedge exposure or express macroeconomic views.

The company operates a regulated marketplace where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from elections and economic data to sports and weather events. Traders buy contracts that pay out if a specific event occurs, turning forecasts into tradable markets.

Kalshi said institutional trading volume on the platform jumped 800% over the past six months, while annualized trading volume more than tripled to $178 billion during the same period.

Amid staggering growth, prediction markets have also drawn growing scrutiny from U.S. regulators and state authorities. Nevada, New Jersey, Illinois and several other states have issued cease-and-desist orders or launched legal challenges against Kalshi, arguing that some event contracts resemble unlicensed sports betting products. Kalshi has pushed back, saying its federally regulated exchange falls under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gambling regulators.

Solv Protocol has said it’s moving more than $700 million of tokenized bitcoin BTC$79,776.48 assets to Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) and deprecating LayerZero bridge support across Corn, Berachain, Rootstock and TAC.

The migration covers SolvBTC and xSolvBTC, Solv’s wrapped bitcoin assets used across DeFi and BTCfi markets. Solv said it made the decision after an updated security review and recent cross-chain hacks, pointing to CCIP as its standard bridge infrastructure.

Chainlink’s CCIP is a bridge that connect blockchains, enabling transfers of tokens, messgages and data between different decentralized networks.

Solv’s move follows Kelp DAO’s shift from LayerZero to Chainlink after an April exploit drained 116,500 rsETH, worth roughly $292 million, from its LayerZero-powered bridge.

Kelp and LayerZero have since traded blame over the setup behind the exploit. LayerZero said Kelp used a single-verifier configuration despite recommendations to adopt a multi-DVN model, while Kelp says LayerZero personnel reviewed and approved the configuration it later blamed for the attack.

The dispute has turned verifier design into a live security issue for high-value cross-chain assets as Kelp says the 1-of-1 setup was not an edge case. LayerZero says it was an application-level configuration choice and has since said it will no longer sign messages for applications using that model.

Solv’s migration gives Chainlink a second post-hack win in cross-chain infrastructure. Kelp is moving liquid restaked ETH to it, while Solv is moving tokenized bitcoin.

Together, Kelp and Solv represent more than $2 billion in protocol asset value moving toward Chainlink’s cross-chain infrastructure.

“We are speaking to many teams across the industry and there is a clear and accelerating trend where protocols like Solv are migrating to Chainlink in a flight to quality reminiscent of the rapid shifts during DeFi summer,” Johann Eid, chief business officer at Chainlink, told CoinDesk.

“The industry’s largest protocols are realizing they can no longer rely on cross-chain and oracle infrastructure that push liability onto users and blame them for systemic failures,” Eid added. “By choosing CCIP, Solv gets cross-chain infrastructure that is “secure and decentralized by default.”

Solv already had already worked with Chainlink to offer real-time collateral verification for SolvBTC pricing.

Bitcoin’s December 25 options expiry brings roughly $6 billion in open interest into focus, according to Deribit data. The picture that emerges is less about a single megabull thesis and more about hedging and neutral positioning that could shape price action as expiry nears. Traders appear to be leaning on sophisticated strategies that cushion against downside risk or lock in gains without requiring a dramatic daily move in BTC.

The backdrop includes a 33% rally off a February low near $60,130, which has revived bullish sentiment to some degree. Yet a substantial chunk of the options book is structured to function as protection or neutral bets, rather than as outright bets on a fresh, multi-month rally. Deribit dominates this market, accounting for about 92% of December’s BTC options open interest, with the caveat that the eventual payout at expiry will depend on the actual price path BTC traces on Dec. 25.

In this environment, the distribution of bets across strikes reveals a nuanced mix of optimism and caution. The market shows a heavy concentration of upside exposure at very high strikes, while sizeable protection at lower levels reflects ongoing nerve about downside risk. With that context, investors should watch how these positions translate into real-world liquidity and potential spillovers if BTC traverses key thresholds in the final days of the year.

Key takeaways

• About half of the $6 billion December BTC options open interest is tied to hedging or neutral strategies rather than directional bets on a decisive rally.
• Calls targeting extreme upside—specifically $115,000 and above—compose roughly $1.85 billion of open interest, highlighting a notable tilt toward upside scenarios, even if many of these are hedges rather than pure speculation.
• Puts at lower levels—around $55,000 and below—total near $1 billion, indicating substantial downside protection alongside the bullish tilt.
• Put options trade at a roughly 9% premium to equivalent calls, signaling modest fear of downside despite the rally’s progress; a single Dec. 25, $120k call costs about $2,202 to buy, offering leveraged upside exposure without requiring a large move from current levels.

Hedging-centric positioning dominates the December expiry

Deribit’s data shows that the December expiry is skewed toward strategies that do not depend on a dramatic price breakout. The lion’s share of open interest sits in hedges and neutral plays, as traders seek to protect gains or secure profits in a range-bound scenario. While a rally to new highs is not out of the question, the structure of the book implies that many participants are prepared for a more modest move and want to manage risk in a volatile environment.

Industry observers note that large derivatives books often grow in hedges and neutral hedges ahead of major option expiries, as participants use gamma, vega, and other Greeks to balance risk across a spectrum of potential outcomes. In this case, the sheer size of the hedged leg indicates a market that is mindful of downside risk even as price recovery has resumed in recent months.

Extreme-strike bets reveal a split in sentiment between fear and optimism

Across strike layers, the options distribution is telling. The $115,000-and-above calls account for about $1.85 billion of open interest, underscoring demand for upside leverage even as they are often part of hedging or complex price-mivoting schemes rather than straightforward long bets. In parallel, about $1 billion of open interest sits in puts at $55,000 and lower, reflecting risk controls and tail-risk hedging that persist despite BTC’s higher ground.

Crucially, the market appears to exhibit roughly equal weight of bets on “unlikely” downside and upside events, with both sides comprising around half of the overall open interest in their respective extreme segments. That balance suggests a market that remains mindful of outsized moves in either direction, rather than committing wholesale to a single directional narrative. For context, commenters have argued that even when the price advances appear compelling, the options market can stay skeptical about the permanence of such moves; see ongoing analyses of how far the rally can run alongside entrenched hedges.

Pricing signals and what traders are paying for exposure

The options market’s pricing signals reinforce a cautious but not pessimistic outlook. The 9% premium on put options relative to equivalent calls indicates a modest appetite for protection against a potential pullback, rather than a fear-driven rush to sell. In neutral conditions, the put-call skew typically sits within a narrow band; current metrics suggest investors are comfortable with upside but remain wary of a swift reversal that could catch bullish participants off guard.

One concrete data point: a Dec. 25, $120,000 call is priced to cost around $2,202, granting “unlimited” upside exposure relative to that strike at expiry. These structures exemplify how traders use high-strike calls to participate in outsized upside without committing to heavy upfront bets on BTC crossing multiple substantial resistance levels. The combination of high-strike calls and downside protection paints a picture of a market cautiously positioning for both tail-risk and potential upside, rather than a one-way bet on a sustained rally.

Observers also note that derivatives data from Laevitas and other analytics providers show the same general dynamic: a relatively flat six-month delta skew in certain regimes, punctuated by pockets of time-sensitive optimism around the $80,000 region, even as the market remains wary of a sustained breakout. For readers following the broader narrative, this nuance aligns with prior commentary that even as price recovers, the market’s appetite for risk remains tempered by a desire to maintain optionality without overcommitting capital. See related market analyses that discuss whether a final move to or beyond five-figure levels is sustainable in the near term.

As traders gaze toward Dec. 25, many will be watching not just BTC’s price, but how these hedges behave as expiry nears. The balance between protective positions and upside-capitalizing bets will influence liquidity, implied volatility, and potential gamma-driven moves on the last trading days of the year. The recent rally has rekindled bullish chatter, but the options book tells a parallel story of caution and risk management shaping the near-term outlook. For ongoing context, readers can refer to prior analyses on whether the rally can sustain under current derivatives dynamics.

This analysis draws upon Deribit’s December open interest breakdown and related derivatives metrics, with additional context from market analytics providers tracking skew and delta. It is intended to illuminate how a large, hedged options book can coexist with a bullish price trajectory, and what that means for traders, investors, and builders navigating a volatile end to the year.

Readers should monitor how BTC behaves as the expiry approaches. If price action remains within a mid- to high-range band, many hedges could simply yield minimal P&L changes, while a breakout in either direction could trigger rapid adjustments in the remaining open positions. The unfolding dynamics will help determine whether this expiry marks a pause in volatility or a prelude to a more decisive move in 2022–2023-like cycles.