Crypto World
Crypto Security Failures Expose Human Vulnerabilities Over Technical Flaws
TLDR:
- North Korea stole $2.02 billion in crypto in 2025—up 51%—using deception, not code exploits.
- A fake Ledger Live app passed Apple’s review and drained $424,000 in Bitcoin from one user.
- Kraken insiders were recruited via darknet ads for as little as $3,000 to compromise client accounts.
- Cryptographic systems remain unbroken, but human access points are now the cheapest attack vector in crypto.
Human error, not code vulnerabilities, drove three major crypto security breaches within thirteen days in April 2025. The incidents collectively resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.
Each case involved manipulation of people rather than exploitation of blockchain systems. Analysts say the pattern reveals a structural weakness the industry has yet to address.
The binding constraint in digital asset security is no longer cryptographic—it is human.
North Korean Operatives Target Crypto Firms Through Social Engineering
A six-month infiltration campaign led to Drift losing $285 million on April 1, 2025. Attackers posed as business partners, held in-person meetings across multiple countries, and deposited $1 million to build credibility.
Investigators attributed the operation with medium confidence to UNC4736, a North Korean state-sponsored group.
The same group is linked to the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. Chainalysis reported North Korea stole $2.02 billion in crypto in 2025 alone.
That figure represents a 51% year-over-year increase, achieved through 74% fewer attacks. The efficiency gain came from more refined deception, not improved technical tools.
As researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera noted, North Korea stopped trying to break cryptographic math in 2023. Instead, they began recruiting the people who sit next to it.
CrowdStrike documented 304 individual North Korean infiltration incidents in 2024. The campaigns are still accelerating into 2025.
Kraken caught a North Korean operative applying for an internal job in May 2025. The company deliberately allowed the interview to continue in order to study the tactics being used. That decision provided rare intelligence into how these operations are structured from the inside.
Fake Wallet App Drains Musician’s Decade of Bitcoin Savings
On April 11, musician G. Love—legally Garrett Dutton—purchased a new MacBook Neo and searched for Ledger Live on Apple’s App Store.
He downloaded a clone that had passed both automated scans and manual review. A fake error screen prompted him to enter his 24-word seed phrase.
Within minutes, 5.92 Bitcoin—worth approximately $424,000—was gone. ZachXBT traced nine transactions to KuCoin deposit addresses.
KuCoin had lost its EU MiCA license in February 2025, raising further concerns about oversight gaps in the sector.
The app bypassed multiple layers of platform security without exploiting any technical flaw. It relied entirely on a convincing interface and a user placed under artificial pressure. The seed phrase, once entered, gave attackers complete and irreversible access.
This type of attack requires no sophisticated code. It requires only a believable replica and one moment of user trust. The Apple App Store review process, widely regarded as rigorous, was not sufficient to catch it.
Darknet Ads Recruit Exchange Insiders for Thousands of Dollars
On April 13, Kraken’s Chief Security Officer disclosed that two support staff members had been recruited by a criminal group. Roughly 2,000 client accounts were accessed, representing 0.02% of total users. No funds were stolen, and no system was technically breached.
The criminals recorded videos of internal support panels. They are now using that footage for extortion. Kraken refused to pay. The access was not obtained through a zero-day exploit—it was obtained through a darknet job listing.
Checkpoint Research and ZeroFox documented the going rate for such access in late 2025. Credentials or panel access at Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, or Gemini were available for $3,000 to $15,000, paid in crypto. That price point is lower than one month’s rent in San Francisco.
The crypto industry has spent fifteen years and hundreds of billions building technically sound infrastructure. SHA-256 remains unbroken.
Elliptic curve signatures remain intact. Yet within thirteen days, human access points bypassed all of it. The more the industry hardens its technical systems, the cheaper the human bypass becomes by comparison.
Crypto World
DOJ Opens Compensation Program for Victims of $4B OneCoin Fraud
The U.S. Department of Justice has opened a compensation process for victims of the OneCoin crypto Ponzi scheme, drawing from forfeited assets seized from the operation’s principals. The department announced that more than $40 million in recovered assets is available to reimburse individuals who bought OneCoin between 2014 and 2019 and recorded a net loss.
US Attorney for Manhattan Jay Clayton called the program “an important step toward returning funds to those harmed.” The case highlights how large-scale crypto fraud can unfold and how authorities are attempting to recoup proceeds for victims, even years after a scheme collapses.
OneCoin, launched in 2014 with the ambition of rivaling Bitcoin, rapidly gained attention before revelations of its lack of real utility led to a global crackdown. The project rose to prominence in the crypto market, only to fall as authorities worldwide launched investigations into its operations.
“Between 2014 and 2019, OneCoin’s founders sold a lie disguised as cryptocurrency, costing victims more than $4 billion worldwide,” Clayton said. “While no recovery can fully undo the damage, our Office will continue working to seize criminal proceeds and prioritize getting money back into the hands of victims.”
Key takeaways
- The Department of Justice has established a compensation process for OneCoin victims, drawing on more than $40 million in forfeited assets.
- Eligible claimants are individuals who purchased OneCoin between 2014 and 2019 and sustained a net loss.
- OneCoin’s co-founders were Ruja Ignatova and Karl Sebastian Greenwood; Greenwood has since been sentenced to 20 years in prison, while Ignatova remains at large despite ongoing efforts to locate her.
- Authorities estimate that the scheme stole more than $4 billion from about 3.5 million victims between 2014 and 2016, with some broader estimates suggesting global losses could reach as high as $19 billion.
- Before its collapse, several central banks warned investors about OneCoin, and Bulgarian police later raided the company’s headquarters in 2018, resulting in Greenwood’s arrest.
The OneCoin arc: from promise to collapse
OneCoin launched in Bulgaria in 2014, spearheaded by Ruja Ignatova and Karl Greenwood, and quickly spread to the United States around 2015. The DOJ notes that the operation quickly attracted millions of participants, convincing many that they were investing in a legitimate alternative to established cryptocurrencies.
Despite its spectacular rise, investigators uncovered that the coin did not possess real value or functional utility beyond the marketing and pyramid-like incentives that fueled its expansion. By the time authorities moved in, the scheme had already exhausted substantial sums from a wide global base of investors.
According to the DOJ, between 2014 and the end of 2016, the scheme stole more than $4 billion from roughly 3.5 million victims. Some external estimates have placed global losses significantly higher, underscoring the scale and reach of the fraud as it unfolded across borders.
Prior to its collapse, several national central banks publicly warned investors about OneCoin, labeling it as a potential Ponzi scheme. The investigation culminated in Bulgarian police raids on the company’s headquarters in 2018, and Greenwood was subsequently arrested.
Greenwood’s prosecution culminated in a 20-year prison sentence handed down in September 2023 for his role in the scheme. Ignatova’s whereabouts remain unknown since 2017 when she was last seen boarding a flight to Athens. The FBI lists Ignatova on its Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list, and authorities have offered a $5 million reward for information leading to her capture and conviction.
The OneCoin case remains a stark reminder of how quickly crypto investment narratives can diverge from real utility, and how enforcement authorities pursue asset recovery even after schemes collapse.
Implications for victims and the broader crypto landscape
The new compensation process represents a tangible step by the U.S. government to translate enforcement outcomes into restitution for ordinary investors who were harmed by a high-profile crypto fraud. While the $40 million pool cannot fully compensate billions in alleged losses, it signals a channel for victims to recover at least a portion of their losses, funded from confiscated assets rather than taxpayer money.
For investors and practitioners, the OneCoin episode underscores several enduring lessons about risk in crypto markets. First, the presence of rapid wealth narratives around “cryptocurrency” does not guarantee legitimate value creation. Second, cross-border enforcement can eventually converge on asset recovery, even when the underlying assets prove illiquid or non-existent in utility terms. Finally, the case adds to the growing jurisprudence around what constitutes a legitimate crypto asset and how regulators differentiate between genuine innovation and deceptive schemes.
As authorities continue to unwind the remaining legal and financial tail of OneCoin, observers will be looking for updates on additional forfeitures, the effectiveness of the compensation framework, and how such processes could influence future cases involving mass-market crypto schemes.
For readers tracking this story, the next milestones to watch include the administration of the compensation process, any further asset seizures tied to the case, and ongoing efforts to locate Ignatova or recover further proceeds linked to the scheme.
Crypto World
Former CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo leaves Willkie Farr to focus on digital asset advisory
Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo is leaving the legal profession to commit himself fully to the digital asset space as a strategic adviser for fintech and cryptocurrency startups.
Summary
- Chris Giancarlo is retiring from legal practice at Willkie Farr & Gallagher to focus exclusively on advising cryptocurrency founders and fintech boards.
- The former regulator earned the nickname Crypto Dad during his time leading the CFTC for his early support of digital assets and his role in launching the first Bitcoin futures.
The announcement came via a social media post on Sunday, where Giancarlo confirmed his departure from the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher and his official retirement from legal practice.
By moving into a full-time advisory role, he plans to provide guidance to executives and boards navigating the evolving digital economy.
“From here on, I’ll devote my time to advising founders & builders of FinTech & Digital Assets and their CEOs and boards, research & writing on public policy issues, and continuing work with non-profit programs,” Giancarlo stated.
Known throughout the industry as “Crypto Dad,” Giancarlo earned his reputation during his tenure at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
He joined the agency as a commissioner in 2014 under the Obama administration and later served as chairman from 2017 to 2018 following a nomination by Donald Trump.
His leadership was defined by the pivotal decision to greenlight the first Bitcoin futures markets in the United States, a move that helped bridge the gap between traditional finance and nascent digital markets.
Giancarlo has remained a prominent figure in regulatory circles since leaving public office, recently working with the crypto-focused bank Sygnum on global strategy and compliance.
During a recent appearance on “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast, he addressed the slow pace of legislative efforts like the CLARITY Act.
He suggested that even without immediate action from Congress, the CFTC and the SEC possess the necessary tools to establish a functional framework for the industry.
Modernizing the financial system remains a priority for the former regulator. He warned that while regulatory uncertainty might cause traditional banks to hesitate, the underlying tech is too important to ignore.
“I think there’s a recognition that this is the new architecture of finance and America, our financial institutions are the world’s dominant financial institutions. We need to modernize that. We need to adopt this technology,” he said.
The transition follows a similar path taken by other high-ranking regulators. Caroline Pham, who previously served as the acting chair of the CFTC, moved into the private sector last December to take on the role of chief legal officer at MoonPay.
Crypto World
Citadel Securities Expects Stocks and Bonds to Rally: Here’s Why
Citadel Securities believes the worst-case tail risk from the Iran conflict has been “substantially truncated,” positioning both stocks and bonds for a rally.
The view, outlined by Nohshad Shah, reflects easing extreme-scenario risks as geopolitical incentives increasingly favor de-escalation.
Rally in Stocks and Bonds Is Coming as War Tail Risks Shrink
Shah wrote in a note that Iran’s leadership is primarily focused on regime survival. At the same time, China has strong incentives to push for de-escalation. Together, these dynamics suggest the likelihood of further military escalation is fading.
“The contours of what follows will become clearer in the coming weeks, but for markets, the most relevant point is that we appear to have substantially truncated the tail of the worst-case scenario,” he said.
Despite the US-led Hormuz blockade, Shah maintains his view that a resolution is taking shape. He suggested the conflict’s “end game” is approaching as both Washington and Tehran face rising costs from prolonged hostilities.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
US equity markets appeared to agree with that assessment. Google Finance data showed that the S&P 500 climbed 1.02% on Monday, rising to 6,886. The index has erased nearly all its losses since the Iran war began in late February.
The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.23%, the Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%. The rally extended gains from last week, when the S&P 500 recorded its longest winning streak since October 2025.
Previously, BitMine’s chairman, Tom Lee, also projected that the stock market had bottomed and the index could hit record highs this year.
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The post Citadel Securities Expects Stocks and Bonds to Rally: Here’s Why appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
X Head of Product Teases New Launch to Address Crypto’s Rough Year
X Head of Product Nikita Bier suggested the platform could launch a crypto-focused product, posting that “crypto has had a rough year” and that X should “launch something to fix it.”
While nothing has been officially confirmed, the post quickly drew responses from prominent community members pitching specific integration ideas. Fred Krueger responded to Bier’s post, calling for native Bitcoin (BTC) support on X.
Another user argued that paying creators in USDC stablecoin would improve the experience for both content producers and the platform.
These responses reflect a growing appetite among X’s crypto-native user base for deeper digital asset functionality.
Smart Cashtags and Trading Infrastructure
X has already taken concrete steps toward crypto-adjacent features. On February 14, Bier announced Smart Cashtags. This tool would let users trade stocks and crypto directly from the X timeline. The feature builds on X’s existing cashtag indexing system.
Previously, there was growing speculation that crypto functionality could be integrated into the X Money service, but the platform has not yet confirmed any such plans.
Furthermore, X appointed Benji Taylor as its new Design Lead in March. Taylor previously served as Chief Product Officer at Aave Labs and as the lead designer at Coinbase’s Base network.
His blockchain-heavy background has been widely interpreted as a signal that X is preparing to integrate crypto more deeply into its product stack.
Whether Bier’s post was a genuine product tease or simply community engagement, the convergence of Smart Cashtags, Taylor’s hire, and X Money’s development suggests the platform’s crypto ambitions may be advancing on multiple fronts.
The post X Head of Product Teases New Launch to Address Crypto’s Rough Year appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) Climbs Toward $75K as ETFs Draw $833M and Major Holders Accumulate $2.1B
Key Takeaways
- BTC reached a four-week peak approaching $75,000 before settling around $74,290
- Approximately $530 million in cryptocurrency liquidations occurred, predominantly affecting short sellers at 80%
- Optimism surrounding potential US-Iran diplomatic progress is viewed as the primary catalyst
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $833 million in net capital inflows over the previous week
- Large wallet addresses accumulated 30,000 BTC throughout March, representing approximately $2.1 billion
Bitcoin successfully breached the $73,000 threshold on Monday after three previous rejection attempts over the preceding eight days, climbing to $74,484 — marking its strongest performance since the Iran tensions escalated in late February.

This price movement resulted in $534 million worth of forced liquidations affecting approximately 180,000 market participants. Short positions accounted for $430 million of these liquidations, representing the second substantial short squeeze within a six-day period.

Ethereum demonstrated stronger performance than Bitcoin, climbing 7.7% to $2,366 — reaching levels not seen in approximately ten weeks. Solana advanced 4.6%, while BNB increased 3.3%. All top-10 cryptocurrency assets by market capitalization recorded positive movements across both 24-hour and seven-day timeframes.
The most significant individual liquidation involved a $12.4 million BTC-USDT short position on the Aster exchange. Bitcoin represented $229 million in aggregate liquidations, with Ethereum following at $136 million.
Market participants are attributing the upward movement to indications from President Trump suggesting potential willingness to re-engage in diplomatic discussions with Iran. Despite a US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz commencing Monday, financial markets appear to interpret this as a negotiating tactic rather than military escalation.
Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, shared with Cointelegraph: “Market participants believe the US and Iran are progressing toward an agreement. Iran is urgently seeking to negotiate a settlement, and equity and cryptocurrency markets are responding positively.”
The S&P 500 has completely recovered all declines stemming from the Iran conflict, while the MSCI All Country World Index extended its winning streak to eight consecutive sessions.
Institutional Investment and Large Holder Behavior
Bitcoin ETFs captured $833 million in net positive flows throughout the past week. James Butterfill from CoinShares indicated this “demonstrates renewed risk appetite following preliminary ceasefire progress regarding Iran, combined with support from weaker-than-anticipated US consumer spending and inflation figures.”

Blockchain analytics from Santiment reveal that addresses containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 30,000 tokens during March — valued at roughly $2.1 billion. Approximately 20,000 BTC of this accumulation occurred within a 24-hour window.
The Santiment analytics account highlighted on X that these large holders now possess over 4.25 million BTC, representing 21.3% of circulating supply — their highest concentration since mid-February.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Trading organization Valerius Labs observed: “This movement doesn’t constitute a genuine breakout. It’s a short squeeze encountering resistance zones. Authentic demand emerges above the 200-period simple moving average, not 15% beneath it.”
CryptoQuant has identified critical resistance approaching $79,000 — corresponding to the Traders’ Realized Price, where recent participants who entered during the downturn reach their cost basis and may consider profit-taking.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index has advanced to 62, surpassing its 14-period moving average, which technical analysts interpret as strengthening bullish momentum. The current ceasefire arrangement between the US and Iran is scheduled to conclude next week, with additional diplomatic sessions under consideration.
Crypto World
Banks Criticize White House Report Favoring Stablecoin Yield
The American Bankers Association (ABA) has criticized a White House report that claimed banning stablecoin yields would only have a negligible impact on banks, arguing that the conclusion was reached by asking the “wrong question.”
The White House’s Council of Economic Advisers claimed in a research paper on Wednesday, on the “Effects of Stablecoin Yield Prohibition on Bank Lending,” that under a baseline scenario, banning stablecoin yield may only increase bank lending by $2.1 billion, representing a marginal net increase of about 0.02%.
ABA chief economist Sayee Srinivasan and vice president for banking and economic research Yikai Wang said in a statement on Monday that the “live policy concern” is not whether prohibiting yield on stablecoins would impact bank lending but whether allowing yield on stablecoins would encourage deposit outflows, particularly from community banks.
Srinivasan and Wang said that even if total deposits in the banking system remain unchanged, more funds would likely move from smaller banks to large institutions, which would raise the funding costs of community banks and reduce local lending.
Some of these smaller banks may not have enough balance sheet flexibility to absorb these outflows without resorting to higher-cost wholesale borrowing, the pair said.

Members of the crypto and banking industries have met to negotiate provisions in a Senate bill that will outline how crypto is policed ahead of a potential markup this month, with a key sticking point being language around banning stablecoin yield payments.
Related: CFTC chair says agency is ready to oversee entire crypto market
The ABA’s concerns reflect a Treasury paper in April 2025 that estimated widespread stablecoin adoption could lead to $6.6 trillion worth of deposit outflows from the US banking system.
ABA admits stablecoin rewards are more attractive
Despite the fears, the ABA economic researchers acknowledged that households and businesses would be financially incentivized to move funds out of banks in pursuit of higher-paying stablecoins.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is among the crypto industry leaders who have criticized banks for paying near-zero interest on deposits for decades, arguing that stablecoin yield would force banks to compete on a more level playing field.
The ABA represents some of the banking industry’s biggest names, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.
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Crypto World
Cineflicks Opens Initial Presale Phase Ahead of Platform Rollout
Cineflicks, an upcoming digital entertainment platform, has launched its first presale round as it continues development of a streaming platform focused on user participation and content engagement.
The Cineflicks platform is designed to offer users access to movies, shows, and digital content while introducing a structured engagement system within the platform. The model focuses on integrating content consumption with user participation, aiming to create a more interactive entertainment experience.
According to the team, Cineflicks is currently in the beta stage of development. Core features under development include a streaming interface, user profiles, content discovery systems, and reward tracking mechanisms. The platform also includes Web3 wallet integration to support digital asset management and transparent tracking of user activity within the ecosystem.
The announcement comes at a time when global streaming consumption continues to grow, with audiences spending increasing amounts of time on digital entertainment platforms. While streaming services have expanded significantly over the past decade, most platforms continue to operate on a passive consumption model where users access content without participating in the broader platform ecosystem.
Cineflicks is positioning its platform around a model that introduces participation-based engagement, where user activity is integrated into the overall platform experience. The company states that this approach is intended to align user engagement with platform growth while maintaining a familiar streaming interface.
The first presale round marks an early phase of ecosystem participation, with additional stages expected as the platform progresses toward its public rollout. The presale is structured in multiple phases, supporting the gradual expansion of the Cineflicks ecosystem.
The company plans to continue development of the platform alongside expanding its content library, partnerships, and user base in the coming months.
About Cineflicks
Cineflicks is an upcoming digital entertainment platform focused on streaming movies, shows, and web-based content. The platform is being developed to combine content access with user participation, supported by a structured digital ecosystem.
Media Contact
Email: marketing@cineflicks.io
Website: https://cineflicks.io
Twitter: https://x.com/cineflicksott
Instagram: https://instagram.com/cineflicksott
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Crypto World
What next for Ripple-linked XRP as technicals suggest key breakout ahead
XRP is pushing higher again, but the real story is the setup building underneath. Price is grinding up on strong volume even as sentiment remains extremely negative, a mix that has historically preceded sharper moves.
News Background
• Social sentiment has dropped to one of its most bearish levels in two years, a setup that has previously preceded strong rallies.
• The broader structure remains defined by long-term consolidation, with XRP approaching a multi-year breakout decision zone.
Price Action Summary
• XRP moved from $1.32 to $1.37, continuing a sequence of higher lows that signals steady accumulation.
• The breakout above $1.35 came on strong volume, with follow-through buying pushing price toward $1.38.
• Price is now consolidating just below recent highs, holding gains rather than immediately reversing.
Technical Analysis
• The key signal is the combination of rising price and strong volume, pointing to accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
• At the same time, extremely bearish sentiment suggests retail positioning is still skewed to the downside, creating a contrarian setup.
• XRP remains below major resistance, meaning the broader trend has not yet flipped despite improving short-term structure.
• Compression across timeframes indicates the market is approaching a decision point, with pressure building for a larger move.
What traders should watch
• $1.35 is now the immediate support, with price needing to hold above it to maintain momentum.
• $1.42-$1.45 is the key breakout zone that needs to clear for a stronger trend shift.
• Failure to hold $1.33-$1.30 would weaken the structure and bring downside back into focus.
Crypto World
US Opens Compensation Claims for OneCoin Victims
The US Department of Justice has launched a compensation process for victims of the $4 billion crypto Ponzi scheme OneCoin, using forfeited assets taken from some of the scheme’s architects.
The Justice Department said on Monday that more than $40 million in forfeited assets is available to compensate anyone who purchased OneCoin between 2014 and 2019 and recorded a net loss.
Jay Clayton, the US Attorney for Manhattan, said the compensation process was “an important step toward returning funds to those harmed.”
OneCoin was launched in 2014 with the goal of surpassing Bitcoin (BTC), and despite rising to become the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, it later collapsed as users discovered the coins had no utility, and authorities worldwide started investigations into the operation.

“Between 2014 and 2019, OneCoin’s founders sold a lie disguised as cryptocurrency, costing victims more than $4 billion worldwide,” Clayton said. “While no recovery can fully undo the damage, our Office will continue working to seize criminal proceeds and prioritize getting money back into the hands of victims.”
OneCoin co-founder disappeared, another gets 20 years
OneCoin was launched by Ruja Ignatova and Karl Sebastian Greenwood in Bulgaria and began operating in the United States around 2015.
The Justice Department estimates that between 2014 and the end of 2016, the scheme stole more than $4 billion from around 3.5 million victims. However, some estimates for worldwide losses reach $19 billion.
Related: Hacked crypto tokens drop 61% on average and rarely recover, Immunefi report says
Prior to OneCoin’s collapse, several central banks, including those of Latvia, Sweden and Norway, warned investors against the cryptocurrency, flagging it as a possible Ponzi scheme.
Bulgarian police eventually raided OneCoin’s headquarters in 2018 and arrested Greenwood.
He was sentenced to 20 years in prison in September 2023 for his role in the scheme.
Ignatova was last seen in 2017, boarding a flight to Athens. She is one of the FBI’s “Ten Most Wanted Fugitives,” and the agency is offering $5 million for information leading to her capture and conviction.
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Crypto World
Japan’s central bank cools rate hike expectations, removing a key risk for bitcoin’s rally
Bitcoin’s breakout past $74,000 on Monday got a helping hand from Japan.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cooled expectations for an interest rate hike at the upcoming April 28 policy meeting, signaling a more cautious stance amid uncertainty over how the Iran war will affect Japan’s economy.
Such decisions have shown to spillover to the crypto market in previous years. On August 5, 2024, a surprise BOJ rate hike triggered a yen carry trade unwind that crashed bitcoin from $64,000 to $49,000 in 48 hours.
The carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply in yen and deploy into higher-yielding assets including crypto, had become one of the largest sources of leveraged risk-asset exposure globally. A yen unwind tends to cause quick sell-offs in risk assets, with bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies the first to be hit.
But Ueda just signaled that trade stays intact for at least another month. Japan’s 20-year bond auction on Tuesday drew its strongest demand since 2019, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.82 against a 12-month average of 3.27, confirming that institutional capital agrees the hiking cycle is pausing.
Twenty-year yields, near their highest since 1997, fell nine basis points after the auction.
A dovish BOJ keeps the yen weak, currently near 160 against the dollar. A weak yen keeps carry trade funding cheap. Cheap carry funding supports leveraged positions across risk assets, including the perpetual futures markets where bitcoin’s rally is being built.
Data from last week showed $2.1 billion in new bitcoin open interest and $2.2 billion in ether open interest in 24 hours following the ceasefire, with coin-denominated OI confirming net new longs. Some portion of that positioning maybe funded, directly or indirectly, by the same yen liquidity that Ueda just preserved.
Japan is also among the economies most exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 90% of its oil imports flow.
If U.S.-Iran talks produce a deal and oil prices continue falling, Japan’s inflation pressure eases further, giving the BOJ even less reason to hike and extending the window in which the carry trade supports risk assets.
As such, the BOJ’s caution is one more tailwind behind bitcoin’s breakout. The $73,000 ceiling held for six weeks partly because macro headwinds, from oil to rates to geopolitics, gave leveraged traders no reason to push through it.
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