Ethereum has extended its recent decline, slipping toward the $2,000 level. At first glance, the pullback appears to be stabilizing. However, on-chain data suggests the weakness may not be over.

While ETH is hovering near a key level, underlying metrics reveal persistent stress; there is a chance that this cycle mirrors prior downturn patterns.

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Ethereum Can Repeat History

Ethereum fell below its Realized Price toward the end of January. Since then, ETH has remained trapped under this crucial on-chain benchmark. The Realized Price reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation. Trading below it often signals widespread unrealized losses.

The Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, ratio confirms this pressure. ETH’s MVRV has remained below 1.0, indicating that the average holder is at a loss. Extended periods in this zone historically coincide with deep market corrections.

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Past cycles show that recovery eventually follows prolonged sub-Realized Price trading. However, such recoveries often occur after capitulation phases. In prior bear markets, ETH experienced additional downside before forming durable bottoms. Current conditions suggest that further decline could precede stabilization.

ETH Selling Is Active

Exchange On-Balance data reveals an increasing supply moving onto trading platforms. Over the past week, approximately 445,000 ETH entered exchanges. At current prices, this represents more than $887 million in potential sell pressure.

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Rising exchange balances typically indicate distribution. ETH Investors often transfer assets to exchanges with the intention of selling. The scale of recent inflows suggests heightened caution among holders.

If the price fails to rebound quickly, panic selling could intensify. Similar spikes in exchange deposits have historically preceded sharp drawdowns. The combination of unrealized losses and rising supply increases downside vulnerability.

ETH Price May Witness Further Decline

Ethereum is trading at $1,997 at the time of writing. The $2,000 level represents a critical psychological threshold. While this zone may attract short-term buying, persistent selling pressure reduces the probability of a sustained bounce. The $1,866 level represents the next notable support based on the CBD Heatmap.

This zone reflects prior accumulation activity. If ETH loses $1,866, downside risk expands toward $1,385. This level has served as a structural bottom during previous cycles. A drop to $1,385 would represent roughly a 30% decline from current levels. The next major support beyond that sits near $1,231.

Conversely, a change in investor behavior could alter the trajectory. If holders reduce exchange deposits and accumulation resumes, ETH could stabilize above $2,000. A rebound may target $2,205 in the short term. Sustained buying pressure could extend gains toward $2,500, invalidating the current bearish outlook.

Crypto funds shifted to market-neutral trades as volatility punished directional bets and triggered a fourth straight month of losses.

Crypto funds opened 2026 with losses and defensive positioning, according to a February 18 survey by Presto Research and Otos Data.

The report shows investors shifting toward relative-value and market-neutral trades as macro uncertainty and price swings weigh on directional bets.

Market-Neutral Funds Outperform as Directional Strategies Sink

According to Presto’s survey, all liquid crypto hedge funds dipped by an average of 1.49% last month. The losses extended a difficult stretch for active managers, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative equally weighted performance across both fundamental and quantitative categories, a sequence not seen since late 2018 and early 2019.

The dispersion within the numbers tells a clearer story, with fundamental funds dropping 3.01% in January, while quantitative funds fell 3.51%. On the other hand, Presto revealed that market-neutral funds, which aim to profit from price differences rather than market direction, gained about 1.6%. Over six months, those same neutral strategies are up nearly 5% while fundamental funds are down more than 24%.

During that same period, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen approximately 31%, Ethereum (ETH) 23%, and Solana (SOL) 47%.

Analysis by other market watchers supports the fragile tone, with data from Alphractal showing that Bitcoin was trading in a stress zone where weaker holders tend to sell while long-term investors accumulate. The firm’s founder, Joao Wedson, said long-term holder profit levels are still positive, a sign the market may not yet be at a final turning point.

Positioning Data Points to Defensive Posture, Not Panic

The Presto survey’s flow analysis shows a clear behavioral arc through January. The month opened with constructive positioning and call buying, but as rallies failed, traders rotated into tactical fade structures. By the third week, downside hedging became dominant, as ETF flows fluctuated, with periods of inflow offset by miner distribution and whale selling. Meanwhile, corporate accumulation remained present but insufficient to offset broader risk reduction.

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Importantly, the report noted that positioning into the month-end was not outright capitulative. The analysts stated that while protection was in place, the leverage looked more orderly compared to the chaotic reset event in October 2025.

The absence of broad panic suggests that stress is building in pockets rather than being expressed as systemic liquidation. This distinction matters as the market assesses whether January represents continuation or exhaustion.

The researchers advised that until policy clarity improves or a structural crypto-specific catalyst emerges, rallies are likely to fade, volatility will stay reactive to headline risk, and adaptability rather than conviction will determine survival in the first quarter of 2026.

Whether January marked a continuation of the bear trend or the exhaustion phase of selling pressure remains an open question. However, at present, the data indicate that strategies that prioritize relative value over directional conviction are successfully navigating the current challenges.

TLDR:

• Ethereum shipped Pectra and Fusaka in 2025, doubling blob throughput and enabling validator data sampling via PeerDAS. 
• The new Scale track merges L1 and blob scaling efforts, targeting gas limits beyond 100M under unified leadership. 
• The Improve UX track advances native account abstraction and cross-L2 interoperability as top priorities for 2026. 
• The new Harden the L1 track addresses post-quantum security, censorship resistance, and network testing infrastructure.

Ethereum Protocol has announced a major structural shift heading into 2026. The Ethereum Foundation’s Protocol team has reorganized its work into three core tracks: Scale, Improve UX, and Harden the L1.

This follows a productive 2025 that saw two major network upgrades shipped. The restructuring reflects a more mature approach to developing Ethereum’s infrastructure. It also sets a clear roadmap for the year ahead, covering scaling, usability, and network security.

Ethereum Protocol Reflects on a Productive 2025

Ethereum Protocol shipped two major upgrades in 2025: Pectra in May and Fusaka in December. Pectra introduced EIP-7702, allowing externally owned accounts to temporarily execute smart contract code.

This enabled transaction batching, gas sponsorship, and social recovery for users. Pectra also doubled blob throughput and raised the max effective validator balance to 2,048 ETH.

Fusaka brought PeerDAS to mainnet, changing how validators handle blob data. Instead of downloading full blob data, validators now sample it, cutting bandwidth requirements.

This change enabled an 8x increase in theoretical blob capacity. Two additional Blob Parameter Only forks shipped alongside Fusaka to begin ramping up blobs per block.

Beyond the two forks, the mainnet gas limit rose from 30M to 60M during 2025. This marked the first meaningful gas limit increase since 2021.

History expiry also removed pre-Merge data from full nodes, saving hundreds of gigabytes of disk space. On the UX side, the Open Intents Framework reached production and cross-chain address standards moved forward.

These milestones made 2025 one of the most active years at the Ethereum protocol level. With those deliverables behind it, the team saw an opportunity to restructure.

The new track model moves away from milestone-driven initiatives. It instead organizes work around longer-term goals.

Three Tracks Now Guide Ethereum Protocol’s Direction

The Scale track merges what were previously two separate efforts: Scale L1 and Scale Blobs. Led by Ansgar Dietrichs, Marius van der Wijden, and Raúl Kripalani, it targets gas limits beyond 100M.

The track also covers ePBS, zkEVM attester client development, and statelessness research. Blob scaling and execution scaling are treated as one connected effort.

The Improve UX track, led by Barnabé Monnot and Matt Garnett, focuses on account abstraction and interoperability. EIP-7701 and EIP-8141 are pushing smart account logic directly into the protocol.

Work here also connects to post-quantum readiness, since native account abstraction offers a natural path away from ECDSA. Cross-L2 interactions and faster confirmations remain central priorities.

The Harden the L1 track is entirely new and is led by Fredrik Svantes, Parithosh Jayanthi, and Thomas Thiery. Fredrik leads the Trillion Dollar Security Initiative, covering post-quantum hardening and trustless RPCs.

Thomas focuses on censorship resistance research, including FOCIL (EIP-7805) and measurable resistance metrics. Parithosh oversees devnets, testnets, and client interoperability testing infrastructure.

Glamsterdam is the next planned network upgrade, targeting the first half of 2026. Hegotá is expected to follow later in the year.

Pi Network Coin’s price is surging this month, even as the broader crypto market remains muted, with Bitcoin stuck at $67,000.

Pi Coin (PI) token jumped to a high of $0.20 on Wednesday, February 18, up by nearly 50% from its lowest level this month. This rally has brought its market capitalization to over $1.68 billion.

Pi Network is soaring as several important factors converge. First, the network will celebrate the first anniversary of its mainnet launch this Friday. As such, there is a likelihood the developers will make a major announcement to mark this occasion.

Second, there is a likelihood that Kraken, an American crypto exchange valued at over $20 billion, will list it later this year. Kraken added it to the chain section of the listing roadmap page.

A Kraken listing would be a big deal, as it would expose it to American investors, since it is now listed on exchanges like OKX, MEXC, and Gate, which have a negligible market share in the country. It would also raise the possibility of being listed by other companies, such as Binance and Coinbase.

Pi Coin’s price is soaring ahead of the first validator rewards distribution, which will occur in March this year. The risk, however, is that many of these validators may decide to sell their rewards.

Pi is also rising after developers began implementing a major network upgrade, as it transitions from Protocol 19 of the Stellar Network Consensus to Protocol 23. The first stage of the upgrade started on Sunday, and the process may continue in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, data compiled by PiScan shows that the pace of token unlocks will continue to fall over the next few months. 109 million tokens will be unlocked in the remainder of February, followed by 104 million in March, 86 million in April, and 78 million in May.

Pi Network Coin price technical analysis 

The 12-hour chart shows that the Pi Network Coin price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $0.1300 to the current $0.1870. It has flipped the Supertrend indicator from red to green for the first time since October last year.

The coin has also jumped above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, and is slowly forming a bullish pennant pattern. It is also hovering at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the coin may continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at $0.2055, its lowest level this month. This target aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Key Takeaways

• New Defense Unit: The Digital Chamber forms a specialized group to defend prediction markets against state-level bans.
• Primary Goal: Advocating for CFTC supremacy over fragmented state gaming commission enforcement.
• First Move: Strategic letter sent to CFTC Chair Mike Selig urging tailored federal rulemaking over litigation.

Divided Federal Reserve officials at their January meeting indicated that further interest rate cuts should be paused for now and could resume later in the year only if inflation cooperates.

While the decision to hold the central bank’s benchmark rate steady mostly was met with approval, the path ahead appeared less certain, with members conflicted between fighting inflation and supporting the labor market, according to minutes released Wednesday from the Jan. 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

“In considering the outlook for monetary policy, several participants commented that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” the meeting summary said.

However, meeting participants disagreed on where policy should head, with officials debating over whether the focus should be more on fighting inflation or supporting the labor market.

“Some participants commented that it would likely be appropriate to hold the policy rate steady for some time as the Committee carefully assesses incoming data, and a number of these participants judged that additional policy easing may not be warranted until there was clear indication that the progress of disinflation was firmly back on track,” the minutes said.

Moreover, some even entertained the notion that rate hikes could be on the table and wanted the post-meeting statement to more closely reflect “a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions.”

Such a description would have reflected “the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels.”

The Fed reduced its benchmark borrowing rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in consecutive cuts in September, October and December. Those moves put the key rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.

The meeting was the first for a new voting cast of regional presidents, at least two of whom, Lorie Logan of Dallas and Beth Hammack of Cleveland, have publicly said they think they Fed should be on hold indefinitely. Both have said they see inflation as a continuing threat and should be the focus of policy now. All 19 governors and regional presidents participate at the meeting, but only 12 vote.

With the Fed already split along ideological lines, the fissure could grow deeper if former Governor Kevin Warsh is confirmed as the next central bank chair. Warsh has spoken in favor of lower rates, a position also supported by current Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller. Both Waller and Miran voted against the January decision, preferring instead another quarter-point cut. Current Chair Jerome Powell‘s term ends in May.

The meeting minutes do not identify individual participants and featured an array of characterizations to describe positions, rotating between “some,” “a few,” “many” and even featured two rare references to “a vast majority.”

Participants generally expected inflation to come down through the year, “though the pace and timing of this decline remained uncertain.” They noted the impact tariffs were having on prices and said they expected the impact to wane as the year goes by.

“Most participants, however, cautioned that progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective might be slower and more uneven than generally expected and judged that the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee’s objective was meaningful,” the document said.

At the meeting, the rate-setting FOMC adjusted some of the language in its post-meeting statement. The changes noted that the risks to inflation and the labor market had come more closely into balance, softening prior worries over the employment picture.

Since the meeting, labor data has been a mixed bag, with indications that private sector job creation is slowing further and that the meager growth is coming almost entirely from the health-care sector. However, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% in January and nonfarm payroll growth was stronger than expected.

On inflation, the Fed’s key personal consumption expenditures prices metric has been mired around 3%. However, a report last week showed that the consumer price index when excluding food and energy prices was at its lowest in nearly five years.

Futures traders are placing the best bet for the next cut to come in June, with another in September or October, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

• XRP has held strong near $1.40 despite mixed market signals.
• Key resistance levels to watch are $1.50, $1.54, and $1.91.
• Arizona has proposed to include XRP in a state-managed crypto reserve fund.

XRP cryptocurrency has held steady above $1.40, showing resilience despite a broadly cautious market.

Recent developments in US policy have added a fresh layer of optimism for XRP enthusiasts.

Arizona advances bill to include XRP in state reserve

Arizona lawmakers are moving forward with legislation that could formally include XRP in a state-managed digital assets fund.

The proposal seeks to create a strategic reserve for digital currencies obtained through seizures or confiscations.

XRP, alongside Bitcoin (BTC), is explicitly listed as an eligible asset.

🚨BREAKING: ARIZONA ADVANCES BILL TO ADD XRP TO OFFICIAL STATE DIGITAL ASSET RESERVE 🇺🇸🔥

Arizona’s Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund bill (SB1649) just CLEARED the Senate Finance Committee in a 4–2 vote — and it explicitly includes $XRP in the RESERVE. 👀

The bill now… pic.twitter.com/2x8uVH6LXD

— Diana (@InvestWithD) February 17, 2026

The bill recently passed a key Senate committee in a 4-2 vote, marking a significant step forward.

If enacted, the fund would be managed by the state treasurer with strict custodial oversight.

This move would make Arizona one of the first US states to formally reference XRP in a government financial framework.

For XRP holders, this development is largely symbolic.

The state would not be directly purchasing XRP with taxpayer money, but inclusion in the reserve adds credibility.

It reinforces XRP’s reputation as a functional and settlement-oriented digital asset rather than just a speculative token.

Market activity signals caution

XRP’s short-term price action has been mixed.

The coin is supported around $1.40 to $1.44, creating a key floor that traders are watching closely.

Exchange outflows suggest accumulation by larger holders, while smaller whales have added to their balances, hinting at potential upward pressure.

Technical indicators show both bullish and bearish signals.

Momentum oscillators suggest limited buying activity in the short term, but longer-term smart money metrics point to possible gains.

Patterns on the charts indicate that a break below $1.42 could trigger a short-term pullback toward $1.12.

At the same time, if support holds, traders could see upside targets near $1.91 and $2.13.

XRP has been rangebound for the past month, but the combination of policy developments and structural market accumulation could push it higher.

XRP price prediction

Policy developments in Arizona, combined with accumulation patterns and technical support, may give XRP the momentum it needs to challenge its next resistance levels.

Traders should watch the $1.40–$1.44 support zone closely.

A strong hold here could set the stage for a breakout.

The resistance levels to monitor are $1.50 and $1.54 in the near term.

Beyond that, the next targets are $1.67 and $1.91.

These levels align with smart money accumulation and historical trading ranges.

A sustained move above $2.00 could signal a return of broader bullish sentiment.

Overall, XRP’s price is poised in a delicate balance.

Short-term caution is warranted, but medium-term prospects look promising.

An activist Riot Platform shareholder is pressing the crypto mining company to accelerate its pivot to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence.

In a Wednesday letter to executives, Starboard Value, which holds about 12.7 million shares of Riot, said that the company could generate between $9 billion to $21 billion in equity value contribution from AI/HPC data centers in Texas. The shareholder said that “time is of the essence,” stressing urgency in getting “more material deals completed” as it moves deeper into AI and HPC.

“With 1.4 [gigawatts] of gross capacity remaining to be monetized, Riot is in an enviable position – but it must execute with excellence and urgency,” said Starboard. “We believe Riot should be able to attract high-quality tenants for tier-3 data centers with terms similar to or better than the peer transactions announced towards the end of 2025.”

Starboard referred to Riot’s primary sites in Corsicana and Rockdale, Texas, where other crypto miners also operate due to low energy costs and friendly regulations.

At Wednesday’s Nasdaq market open, Riot’s share price surged and were up by almost 6%, at the time of publication. Industry tracker CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF was down less than 1%, by comparison.

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“The recently announced transaction with Advanced Micro Devices […] is a positive signal and confirms our views regarding the intrinsic value of Riot’s key sites, but it is a small proof of concept deal, and we, like you, expect significantly more,” said Starboard, referring to a data center lease and services agreement announced in January.

Many mining companies pivoting away from crypto

Riot Platforms is not the only crypto company shifting some of its operations into AI and HPC amid increasing mining difficulty and other costs. CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and TeraWulf repurposed some of their infrastructure or announced similar plans in a move toward AI.

Cango, another Bitcoin miner, sold $305 million worth of its BTC holdings last week in part to fund its planned expansion into AI and HPC.

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