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CryptoQuant Places Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom at $55,000 as Key Indicators Show Extended Correction Ahead

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CryptoQuant Places Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom at $55,000 as Key Indicators Show Extended Correction Ahead

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin trades 25% above its realized price of $55,000, which historically marks bear market bottoms
  • February 5 sell-off triggered $5.4 billion in daily losses, the largest since March 2023’s $5.8 billion event
  • Monthly realized losses at 0.3 million BTC remain far below 2022 bear market bottom of 1.1 million BTC
  • Long-term holders selling near breakeven versus 30-40% losses typical at previous bear market cycle lows

 

Bitcoin’s bear market floor sits around $55,000, according to blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. The firm’s latest assessment suggests the cryptocurrency remains more than 25% above this critical support level.

CryptoQuant analysts note that bear market bottoms require several months to establish rather than forming through sudden capitulation events.

This analysis comes as Bitcoin trades significantly higher than key historical support zones that marked previous cycle lows.

Realized Price Indicates Extended Bottoming Process

The realized price metric serves as CryptoQuant’s primary indicator for determining Bitcoin’s potential bottom. This measure calculates the average price at which all coins last moved on the blockchain.

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Historical data shows this metric provided strong support during past bear markets. Current trading prices remain elevated compared to this threshold, suggesting additional downside potential exists.

Previous bear cycles demonstrated distinct patterns when Bitcoin approached these levels. During the 2018 downturn, prices dropped 30% below the realized price before stabilizing.

The FTX collapse in 2022 pushed Bitcoin 24% beneath this metric. After reaching these depths, the cryptocurrency spent between four and six months building a foundation before recovery began.

Recent market volatility has not yet pushed Bitcoin into the extreme zones that characterize true bottoms. On February 5, the asset experienced a 14% decline to $62,000, triggering $5.4 billion in realized losses.

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This marked the largest single-day loss realization since March 2023, when holders crystallized $5.8 billion in losses. The figure also exceeded the $4.3 billion recorded shortly after the FTX exchange collapsed.

Despite these substantial losses, CryptoQuant maintains that a structural bottom has not materialized. Monthly cumulative realized losses currently stand at 0.3 million BTC, well below the 1.1 million BTC observed at the end of the 2022 bear market. This disparity suggests selling pressure has not reached the intensity associated with cycle lows.

Source: Cryptoquant

Multiple Indicators Show Market Remains Above Capitulation Levels

The MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, has not entered extreme undervaluation territory. This metric historically signals bear market bottoms when reaching deeply depressed levels.

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Current readings indicate Bitcoin trades above the ranges that marked previous cycle nadirs. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric has not declined to the 20% unrealized loss threshold observed at past bottoms.

Long-term holder behavior provides additional evidence that full capitulation has not occurred. These investors currently sell positions near breakeven prices.

During previous bear market conclusions, long-term holders typically absorbed losses between 30% and 40% before markets reversed. This behavioral difference suggests conviction remains higher than at historical turning points.

Approximately 55% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply remains profitable at current prices. This contrasts with the 45% to 50% range typically observed at cycle lows.

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The elevated proportion of profitable holdings indicates many investors entered positions at lower prices and maintain paper gains. Bear market bottoms usually feature a higher percentage of underwater positions across the holder base.

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the Bear Phase rather than advancing to the Extreme Bear Phase. The latter designation historically marks the beginning of extended bottoming periods.

These extreme phases typically persist for several months, reinforcing the firm’s assessment that bear markets require time to resolve.

Standard Chartered recently adjusted its outlook, projecting Bitcoin could test $50,000 before recovering later this year.

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Crypto World

Pompliano Says Cooling Inflation Tests Bitcoin Investors’ Conviction

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Bitcoin holders may be entering a different phase of the market cycle as inflation eases, according to entrepreneur and investor Anthony Pompliano, who says the asset’s core thesis is now being challenged.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pompliano says easing inflation is testing Bitcoin investors’ long-term conviction.
  • Bitcoin’s scarcity thesis depends more on money supply expansion than short-term CPI moves.
  • Weak sentiment and macro uncertainty may pressure prices before a potential recovery.

In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Pompliano argued that many investors first turned to Bitcoin during a period of rising prices and aggressive monetary expansion.

With inflation slowing, he said, the real question is whether participants still believe in Bitcoin’s long-term purpose.

Pompliano: Bitcoin’s Case Tested Without High Inflation

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“I think the challenge for Bitcoin investors, can you hold an asset when there is not high inflation in your face on a day-to-day basis?” he said.

“Can you still believe in what Bitcoin’s value proposition is, which is that it’s a finite-supply asset. If they print money, Bitcoin is going higher.”

Government data shows inflation cooling modestly. The Consumer Price Index slowed to 2.4% in January from 2.7% a month earlier, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Even so, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi recently told CNBC that the improvement appears stronger in statistics than in everyday costs faced by consumers.

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Bitcoin has long been promoted as a hedge against currency debasement because its supply is capped at 21 million coins.

When central banks expand liquidity and weaken purchasing power, investors often move toward scarce assets, including Bitcoin and gold, both of which Pompliano described as durable long-term stores of value.

Market sentiment, however, has deteriorated. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dropped to an “Extreme Fear” reading of 9, a level not seen since June 2022.

Bitcoin was trading near $68,850 at publication, down roughly 28% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Pompliano expects macroeconomic conditions to create turbulence before any sustained recovery.

He anticipates deflationary pressures in the short run, followed by policy responses such as rate cuts and renewed liquidity injections.

“We’re going get deflationary-type forces in the short term, people are going to ask to print money and to drop interest rates,” he said.

He described the dynamic as a “monetary slingshot,” where currency devaluation occurs while falling prices temporarily obscure its effects.

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Over time, he argued, additional money creation would weaken the U.S. dollar and strengthen scarce assets.

Bitcoin Slides as US Jobs Revision Shakes Market Confidence

Bitcoin’s recent decline followed a sharp shift in economic expectations after US authorities revised last year’s employment data lower by nearly 900,000 jobs.

While January payrolls showed a modest gain of 130,000 positions, the large adjustment undermined confidence in earlier reports and unsettled financial markets.

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Investors reacted less to the weak headline figure and more to the reliability of the data itself, as uncertainty tends to weigh heavily on risk assets.

The change quickly rippled across markets. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year moving from about 4.15% to 4.20%, while expectations for a March interest-rate cut dropped sharply from 22% to 9%.

Derivatives activity also intensified, with large traders increasing hedging positions against further downside.

Analysts noted that preliminary labor estimates, including statistical models used during economic transitions, may have overstated job creation in prior readings.

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For Bitcoin, the bond market remains a key signal. Higher yields typically tighten liquidity conditions, making it harder for speculative assets to recover.

Although some traders believe prices could be nearing a bottom, current market behavior suggests hesitation.

The post Pompliano Says Cooling Inflation Tests Bitcoin Investors’ Conviction appeared first on Cryptonews.

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ARK Invest Buys $15M Coinbase Shares After Recent Selling

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ARK Invest Buys $15M Coinbase Shares After Recent Selling

ARK Invest has returned to buying shares of Coinbase Global after trimming its position, adding roughly $15 million worth of stock across several of its actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Friday.

The Cathie Wood-led asset manager purchased 66,545 Coinbase shares through the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), 16,832 shares through Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and 9,477 shares through Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), according to the firm’s daily trade disclosures.

The buying activity coincided with a sharp surge in Coinbase stock. Shares closed the trading session at $164.32, up about 16.4% on the day, before edging higher in after-hours trading, according to data from Google Finance. The surge put the firm’s total purchase at roughly $15.2 million.

Alongside Coinbase, ARK also increased its stake in Roblox Corporation, buying shares in ARKK, ARKW and ARKF. Roblox closed near $63.17 on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.

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Coinbase shares surged 16% on Friday. Source: Google Finance

Related: Coinbase unveils crypto wallets designed specifically for AI agents

ARK cuts Coinbase shares across ETFs

Last week, ARK Invest reduced its exposure to Coinbase, selling about $17.4 million in Coinbase stock on Feb. 5 for the first time this year and its first reduction since August 2025.

The exchange then sold another $22 million worth of Coinbase shares across several ETFs on Feb. 6, while increasing its position in digital-asset platform Bullish.

As Cointelegraph reported, Coinbase became the top detractor across several of Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest ETFs in the fourth quarter of 2025, as a broader crypto market pullback pressured performance. Shares of Coinbase fell more sharply than both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) during the quarter.

Related: Coinbase bets on Backstreet Boys nostalgia in return to Super Bowl

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Coinbase posts $667 million Q4 loss

Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, ending an eight-quarter run of profitability. Earnings per share came in at 66 cents, missing analyst expectations of 92 cents, while net revenue fell 21.5% year-over-year to $1.78 billion. Transaction revenue dropped nearly 37% to $982.7 million, although subscription and services revenue rose more than 13% to $727.4 million.