TLDR

• Mike McGlone warns that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 due to rising recession risks in the U.S.
• The long-standing “buy the dip” mentality may no longer support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• McGlone highlights Bitcoin’s volatility and predicts a potential reversion to $56,000 before a possible $10,000 decline.
• Broader market instability, including low volatility in major stock indices, contributes to the ongoing crypto price decline.
• Jason Fernandes disagrees with McGlone’s forecast, suggesting a $40,000 to $50,000 price range instead of a collapse to $10,000.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone has raised concerns about the future of Bitcoin. In a recent analysis, he suggested that the ongoing decline in cryptocurrency prices could signal broader financial stress. McGlone also warned that Bitcoin could revert to as low as $10,000, especially if a U.S. recession becomes more likely.

The analyst observed that the market’s traditional “buy the dip” mentality, which has supported risk assets since 2008, may be losing its strength. McGlone pointed out that the worsening situation in the cryptocurrency market is contributing to broader market volatility. He highlighted several macro indicators suggesting heightened risk conditions in global financial markets.

Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Decline to $10,000

McGlone’s analysis specifically mentions Bitcoin’s vulnerability in the current financial environment. He noted that Bitcoin, which recently fluctuated around $68,800, could continue to struggle. According to McGlone, the cryptocurrency’s decline reflects a broader market breakdown, suggesting that the “buy the dip” mindset may no longer be effective.

He further explained that Bitcoin could fall back toward $10,000 if stock markets continue to weaken. McGlone’s chart comparing Bitcoin to the S&P 500 highlighted how both assets were underperforming. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s volatile nature means it is unlikely to remain above current levels if equity markets experience further instability.

In his analysis, McGlone identified a potential reversion level of $56,000 for Bitcoin. This value corresponds to the 5,600 mark for the S&P 500, adjusted for Bitcoin’s volatility. Beyond this, McGlone predicts that the cryptocurrency could fall further, potentially reaching the $10,000 threshold.

Broader Market Volatility Contributes to Crypto Price Decline

McGlone attributes the ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency market to broader financial instability. The U.S. stock market’s capitalization relative to GDP is at a century-high, signaling potential bubbles. He noted that the low volatility observed in major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 could be masking underlying risks.

Furthermore, McGlone emphasized the “imploding” crypto bubble and the role of factors like “Trump euphoria” in amplifying market stress. While gold and silver are seeing a resurgence, McGlone believes their rise could eventually spill over into equities. He noted that rising market volatility might further challenge asset prices across the board, including cryptocurrencies.

Contrasting Views on Bitcoin’s Future

While McGlone’s thesis on Bitcoin’s potential fall to $10,000 has drawn attention, it has also faced criticism. Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, disagreed with McGlone’s view. Fernandes argued that market excesses can resolve through mechanisms like time, rotation, or inflation erosion, rather than necessarily collapsing.

According to Fernandes, Bitcoin’s price could instead stabilize between $40,000 and $50,000 in response to a macro slowdown. He pointed out that a crash to $10,000 would require more severe conditions, including liquidity contraction and financial stress. Fernandes believes that a true recession, marked by global liquidity drainage, would be needed for such a dramatic decline.

However, McGlone’s analysis continues to gain attention, as it reflects rising concerns over both the cryptocurrency and broader market conditions. His forecast suggests that Bitcoin, along with other risk assets, remains highly susceptible to a changing macroeconomic environment.

TLDR

• Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, emphasizes that privacy is the most significant unresolved issue in the cryptocurrency industry.
• Zhao argues that Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies lack adequate privacy features, leaving users vulnerable to tracking.
• CZ highlights that blockchain transactions are traceable, especially with KYC practices on centralized exchanges.
• The Binance founder calls for the development of better privacy infrastructure to enable secure crypto payments while complying with regulations.
• Binance’s history with privacy coins, such as the delisting of Monero, raises concerns about the exchange’s stance on privacy.

Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, has stressed the importance of privacy in the cryptocurrency sector. He pointed out that most digital assets lack sufficient privacy protections, making users vulnerable in ways traditional currency does not. Speaking on the All-In Podcast, CZ emphasized the need for faster advancements in crypto privacy.

Privacy Concerns for Cryptocurrency Payments

CZ argued that privacy plays a fundamental role in society but is currently inadequate in most cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. “Bitcoin was designed to be pseudo-anonymous,” he explained. “But in reality, every transaction on the blockchain can be traced, especially with KYC on centralized exchanges.” This, he noted, exposes users to risks like unwanted tracking, especially in scenarios such as hotel bookings where third parties might gain access to personal information.

He further elaborated on how payment privacy is a significant hurdle as the cryptocurrency industry moves toward mainstream adoption. With major players like AI agents and institutional investors getting involved, the open ledger design of blockchains like Bitcoin remains a challenge. CZ believes that to achieve widespread use, privacy features must evolve to meet the needs of both businesses and consumers.

Binance and Privacy Coins

Despite CZ’s calls for better privacy features, Binance’s own history with privacy coins has been controversial. In February 2024, Binance delisted Monero (XMR), which at the time was the largest privacy coin. This decision came shortly after CZ stepped down as CEO of Binance, and it led to a 17% drop in Monero’s price. Binance has often cited factors such as trading volume and liquidity in delisting assets, claiming it takes action when a coin no longer meets its standards.

CZ’s comments also raised questions about Binance’s stance on privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC). Last year, Binance included Zcash in a community vote on potential delistings. Zcash’s founder, Zooko Wilcox, raised concerns directly with Binance, highlighting the importance of privacy features in cryptocurrency transactions.

The Need for Widespread Privacy Infrastructure

While privacy coins like Monero and Zcash exist, CZ and industry experts suggest that they are not a complete solution. Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst, believes the focus should be on developing broader privacy-preserving infrastructure. Puckrin stressed that the issue isn’t to make payments untraceable but to ensure privacy while staying compliant with regulations. He argued that businesses must adopt these privacy features to enable secure crypto payments.

In the face of these challenges, CZ acknowledged that privacy features are a crucial aspect for crypto’s future. Although law enforcement may seek transparency for security reasons, CZ is confident that privacy can be enhanced without undermining efforts to track bad actors.

The rapid buildout of AI data centers has revived a long-running debate over energy consumption, with critics arguing that large computing operations, including Bitcoin mining, strain power grids and drive up electricity prices.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, the surge in AI data center construction has fueled local resistance in several US regions, with residents and lawmakers raising concerns about power demand and rising electricity costs. Bitcoin (BTC) mining has increasingly been linked to the broader debate over high-density computing infrastructure.

In a recent research note, crypto investment firm Paradigm pushed back on that narrative, arguing that Bitcoin mining is frequently misunderstood and often mischaracterized in public energy debates. Rather than treating mining as a static energy drain, Paradigm frames it as a participant in electricity markets, one that responds to price signals and grid conditions.

Paradigm’s Justin Slaughter and co-author Veronica Irwin also challenge several common assumptions used in energy modeling. For example, they note that some analyses measure Bitcoin’s energy use on a per-transaction basis, even though mining energy consumption is tied to network security and competition among miners, not transaction volume. 

Other models assume energy production is effectively limitless or that miners will continue operating regardless of profitability, assumptions Paradigm argues are unrealistic in competitive power markets.

According to Paradigm, Bitcoin mining currently accounts for about 0.23% of global energy consumption and about 0.08% of global carbon emissions. Because the network’s issuance schedule is fixed and mining rewards decline about every four years, Paradigm argues that long-term energy growth is constrained by economic incentives.

Related: Bitcoin miner production data reveals scale of US winter storm disruption

Bitcoin mining as flexible grid demand

A central pillar of Paradigm’s argument is demand flexibility.

Bitcoin miners typically seek out the lowest-cost electricity, often sourced from surplus or off-peak generation.

Mining operations can scale consumption based on grid conditions, reducing usage during periods of stress and increasing it when supply exceeds demand. In that sense, Paradigm describes mining as a flexible load, similar to energy-intensive industries that respond to real-time pricing signals.

The debate has taken on new urgency as AI data center expansion accelerates. As Cointelegraph recently reported, some crypto-era infrastructure is now being repurposed to support artificial intelligence workloads, with companies shifting from Bitcoin mining to AI data processing to pursue higher margins. Several traditional Bitcoin miners, including Hut 8, HIVE Digital, MARA Holdings, TeraWulf and IREN, have begun making partial transitions.

By framing mining as responsive demand rather than constant consumption, Paradigm’s report shifts the debate from environmental alarmism to grid economics. The implication for policymakers is that Bitcoin mining should be evaluated within the broader electricity market rather than through simplified energy comparisons.

Related: The real ‘supercycle’ isn’t crypto, it’s AI infrastructure: Analyst