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devs under 26 lost 20% of work since 2022

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Anthropic revenue just hit a $30 billion run rate

The AI jobs data inside Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index, released Monday, confirms what many entry-level workers have been experiencing: employment for software developers aged 22 to 25 has fallen nearly 20 percent since late 2022, the exact moment generative AI tools entered mainstream use.

Summary

  • The decline is specific to young workers in AI-exposed roles: developers aged 30 and older in the same companies saw employment grow 6 to 12 percent over the same period, while call center hiring dropped 15 percent and similar age-based divergence appeared in accounting, marketing, and customer service.
  • The pattern does not appear in occupations with low AI exposure: health aides, production supervisors, and manual laborers saw steady or growing employment across all age groups, confirming the effect is concentrated in roles where AI can replicate the textbook knowledge that early-career workers rely on most heavily.
  • Firm surveys cited in the Stanford report indicate executives expect the trend to accelerate, with planned headcount reductions in AI-exposed roles expected to outpace recent cuts, meaning the 20 percent decline in young developer employment may be closer to a starting point than a peak.

As MIT Technology Review noted in its coverage of the index, “the job market is struggling to keep up” with AI development. The Stanford study underpinning the finding used ADP payroll records tracking millions of workers at tens of thousands of companies from 2021 through 2025, one of the largest labor datasets applied to the AI employment question. Researchers, led by Erik Brynjolfsson, were able to rule out alternative explanations including remote work patterns, COVID-era hiring, and broader macroeconomic shifts, leaving the correlation with AI exposure as the most consistent explanation for the divergence between young and older workers in the same roles.

The productivity gains AI is delivering in software development are showing up in the same fields where young employment is contracting. AI can now code for hours at a time and handle basic programming faster and with fewer errors than it could when ChatGPT launched in late 2022.

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The mechanism is structural. Young developers enter the workforce with textbook knowledge, the coding syntax and basic algorithms taught in computer science programs. That is precisely what AI tools are best at replicating. Experienced developers carry tacit knowledge, system thinking, and organizational context that AI cannot replicate from a prompt. The result is that AI is not replacing developers in general; it is replacing the entry-level layer that has historically served as the apprenticeship model for the profession. Stanford computer science professor Jan Liphardt described it plainly: graduates are “struggling to find entry-level jobs” in “a dramatic reversal from three years ago.”

What the Pattern Looks Like Across Other Professions

The divergence is not limited to software. Customer service representatives, accountants, and administrative assistants all showed the same age-based split, with workers aged 22 to 25 losing ground while experienced workers in the same companies held steady. Employment for nursing aides and production supervisors, occupations where AI augments rather than replaces human judgment and physical presence, grew faster for young workers than for older ones over the same period.

What This Means for the Labor Market Through 2026

The Stanford index also found that AI is boosting productivity by 14 percent in customer service and 26 percent in software development, and that a third of organizations expect AI to shrink their workforce in the coming year, particularly in service and software. Those sectors are the same ones where the young worker employment decline is already documented, creating a feedback loop between rising AI capability, documented productivity gains, and declining entry-level hiring that the 2026 data shows is already underway rather than still projected.

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Cato urges US to scrap crypto capital gains tax to boost competition

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Crypto Breaking News

The Cato Institute, a prominent US think tank, is urging policymakers to rethink capital gains taxation on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In a new policy note, researcher Nicholas Anthony argues that removing or reshaping capital gains taxes could unlock cheaper, more competitive money by reducing the tax distortions that currently incentivize long-term holding and heavy reporting requirements.

Anthony suggests the simplest option might be to eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto entirely. As an alternative, he outlines measures that would exempt crypto and foreign currency transactions when used to purchase goods or services, aiming to “take the government’s thumb off the scale and let competition be the true decider of the best money.” He emphasizes that a tax regime that treats everyday crypto spending like ordinary taxable events can undermine the practical use of digital assets as a means of exchange.

Key takeaways

  • Policy proposal: The Cato Institute recommends either scrapping capital gains taxes on crypto entirely or exempting crypto transactions used for everyday purchases from CGT to foster competition among money-like assets.
  • Tax burden for users: The note highlights how even simple, routine crypto spending can trigger complex tax filings, deterring everyday usage and broader adoption.
  • Alternative approaches: A de minimis tax threshold is proposed as another option to limit CGT triggers unless gains exceed a defined amount.
  • Adoption signals: Recent data show growing real-world use of crypto for goods and services, underscoring the potential market impact of tax policy reforms.

Rethinking the tax kernel of crypto spending

The policy paper frames capital gains taxes as a friction point for crypto’s evolution from speculative asset to currency. Anthony notes that when individuals buy daily items, such as coffee, with crypto, the IRS-like framework can convert a routine transaction into a complex tax event. He stresses that while Bitcoin and other digital assets have gained practical use, the tax code has not kept pace, creating unnecessary reporting burdens for compliant users.

Anthony’s reasoning aligns with a broader critique circulating among crypto researchers: tax policy should reflect the functional realities of digital currencies as both stores of value and mediums of exchange. By removing or narrowing CGT exposure, proponents argue, the United States could reduce compliance costs for ordinary users, drive greater merchant adoption, and enhance global competitiveness in a landscape where several jurisdictions are actively adjusting crypto tax rules to attract activity and investment.

“Bitcoiners know the frustration of tax season all too well. It’s never been easier to use Bitcoin as money. Yet, at the same time, the tax code puts an incredible burden on law-abiding citizens. Something as simple as buying a cup of coffee every day with Bitcoin can result in more than 100 pages of tax filings.”

The note adds that eliminating CGT entirely would be the most straightforward route, but it also acknowledges practical concerns, such as how to structure exemptions without creating loopholes or excessive compliance challenges. An interim path—removing CGT on crypto purchases of goods and services—could be more politically feasible but would still require robust systems to verify eligible transactions and prevent abuse. A de minimis threshold, where gains are ignored unless they surpass a specific limit, is presented as another approach that could balance simplicity with tax integrity.

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Context, costs, and what could change next

The Cato Institute’s position sits within a long-running debate about how best to classify and tax digital assets. The policy note stresses that many Americans already use crypto in everyday life, and the current tax framework often complicates routine spending more than it incentivizes long-term investment. This tension matters not just for individual taxpayers, but for merchants, exchanges, and developers seeking to build crypto-aware ecosystems that function like mainstream payment rails.

Anthony has a track record of engaging lawmakers on crypto policy. The institute has historically argued for policies aimed at reducing unnecessary regulatory frictions, and this latest report continues that stance by centering tax design as a lever for broader crypto adoption. While the note does not propose immediate legislative milestones, it invites policymakers to consider how tax rules could better align with the practical realities of digital money, potentially spurring more competition among payment methods and currencies.

From a market perspective, the implications could be meaningful if tax changes reduce perceived friction around crypto usage. Investors and builders may watch how lawmakers respond to these arguments, particularly in an environment where tax policy remains a primary channel through which government policy shapes crypto activity. The balance to strike is clear: preserve tax integrity while removing unnecessary barriers to use and innovation.

Early signals about real-world crypto usage reinforce the conversation. A 2025 survey from the National Cryptocurrency Association found that 39% of US crypto holders reported using crypto to purchase goods and services. Meanwhile, academic data compiled by Springer Nature indicate roughly 11,000 merchants worldwide accept Bitcoin as payment, illustrating that the flow of crypto into everyday commerce is not merely theoretical. These numbers suggest that any policy shift could have a tangible impact on consumer behavior and merchant acceptance, potentially widening the circle of everyday crypto users.

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Beyond the United States, the debate on crypto taxation is part of a broader international trend. Some policymakers argue that tax rules should be simpler and more predictable to reduce compliance costs and uncertainty, while others warn against eroding fiscal bases or creating gaps that could invite abuse. The Cato paper contributes to this ongoing conversation by centering the tax treatment of crypto as a practical driver of adoption and a determinant of how competitive a country’s money system can be.

What to watch as the debate evolves

Readers should monitor potential legislative developments or regulatory proposals that reflect this shift in thinking. If a framework that lightly taxes or exempts crypto transactions gains traction, it could influence not only consumer behavior but also the operating models of wallets, exchanges, and merchants seeking to optimize payment flows. On the flip side, any move to preserve or tighten CGT could sustain the existing friction that incentives buy-and-hold strategies over active use.

As the policy discussion unfolds, market participants and observers will be watching for concrete proposals, transitional rules, and how enforcement and reporting would be handled under new regimes. The central question remains: can tax policy reshape crypto usage in a way that strengthens competition and broadens access without eroding fiscal safeguards?

What remains uncertain is the precise design of any reform and how it would interact with state taxes, international tax agreements, and evolving regulatory views on digital assets. Still, the debate underscores a growing consensus that the tax treatment of crypto is not just about revenues—it’s a lever that could influence the pace of crypto adoption, the behavior of users, and the strategic choices of builders in the ecosystem.

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Investors and practitioners should keep a close eye on policymaker statements, study updates from organizations advocating for tax reform, and assess how changes to CGT could affect demand, merchant acceptance, and the broader competitive landscape of money in the digital era.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin (BTC) can be used as cash, but capital gains taxes turn even a cup of coffee into a mountain of paperwork

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I'm not confident we hit a true capitulation in bitcoin, derivatives expert says

You can buy a cup of coffee with bitcoin easily enough in the U.S. — and get a tax headache thrown in for free.

The form-filling burden is enough to deter users from using the largest cryptocurrency to pay for real-world transactions, according to the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank known for its support of free markets, limited government and individual liberty. Abolishing capital gains tax could change that, it said.

“It’s never been easier to use Bitcoin as money,” Nicholas Anthony, a research fellow at the institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, wrote in a report. “Yet, at the same time, the tax code puts an incredible burden on law-abiding citizens. Something as simple as buying a cup of coffee every day with Bitcoin can result in over 100 pages of tax filings.”

That’s because the tax system doesn’t treat bitcoin as cash at the point of payment. Instead, every transaction is treated as if an asset has been sold just at that moment, triggering capital gains calculations. And the calculations aren’t straightforward.

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That means figuring out when the bitcoin (or fraction of bitcoin) used in the transaction was originally acquired, how much it cost and the value at the moment it was spent. The difference is then treated as a taxable capital gain or loss.

Then it gets complicated. It’s quite possible the BTC was accumulated in several batches rather than a single purchase. So when you paid for the coffee, the coins could have been acquired at different times, each with its own cost basis and purchase price. Those details need to be retrieved, recorded and reported. Every time.

The headache doesn’t stop there, because there is always a risk of penalty or audit in case you make a mistake in reporting.

The fix

Anthony said the system is broken and Congress can fix it in several ways, including abolishing capital gains tax on bitcoin.

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“Doing so would take the government’s thumb off the scale and let competition be the true decider of the best money,” he said.

Another option is to exempt bitcoin from capital gains specifically when used as a payment method. However, this creates the additional hassle of proving that the coins were spent to purchase goods and services.

A third option involves creating a “de minimis tax,” under which capital gains apply only if the transaction exceeds a certain threshold.

He cited the Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act as a potential fix, noting that it could exempt personal crypto transactions from capital gains taxes as long as the gains do not exceed $200. He argued this threshold is too low, and suggested linking it to average household spending, around $80,000, to better reflect real-world consumption.

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Jensen Huang says China Can Build Claude Mythos AI Models

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Jensen Huang says China Can Build Claude Mythos AI Models

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has warned that China already has the computing power and data center capacity necessary to train an AI model at the same level as Anthropic’s AI model Claude Mythos, which could threaten global cybersecurity.

Huang was asked in an interview on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast on Wednesday whether the Chinese government’s access to chips to train a model like Claude Mythos — which has cyberoffensive capabilities — could be a threat to US national security.

Mythos was trained on a “fairly mundane capacity,” Huang said. 

“The amount of capacity and the type of compute it was trained on is abundantly available in China, so you just have to first realize that chips exist in China.”

Anthropic limited access to its new AI model in April after it identified thousands of software vulnerabilities across major operating systems and browsers, raising concerns about potential misuse in cyberattacks. A Chinese-made AI model with the same capability could wreak havoc if misused. 

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Huang said that the amount of compute China has is “enormous.” 

“They have datacenters that are sitting completely empty, fully powered. You know, they have ghost cities, they have ghost datacenters too. They have so much infrastructure capacity. If they wanted to, they [could] just gang up more chips.”

Jensen Huang speaking on China’s AI capacity. Source: Dwarkesh Patel

A call for dialogue, not conflict

Huang added that China manufactures 60% of the world’s mainstream chips, has some of the best computer scientists, has 50% of the world’s AI researchers and an abundance of energy. 

“Victimizing them, turning them into an enemy, likely isn’t the best answer,” he said. “They are an adversary.”

“We want the United States to win. But I think having a dialogue and having research dialogue is probably the safest thing to do.”

Related: Anthropic limits access to AI model over cyberattack concerns

On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed Mythos as a revolutionary step that will keep America ahead of China in the AI race. “This Anthropic Mythos model was a step function change in abilities, learning capabilities,” he said, according to Bloomberg. 

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Claude Mythos poses a real threat 

Anthropic released findings on Claude Mythos Preview on April 7, sparking concern that the model could be used in cyberattacks due to its ability to discover and potentially exploit zero-day vulnerabilities. The company also claimed that 99% of the vulnerabilities the model discovered have not been patched yet.

Meanwhile, the AI Security Institute (AISI) evaluated Mythos on April 13, finding that the AI model could  “execute multi-stage attacks on vulnerable networks and discover and exploit vulnerabilities autonomously,” tasks that would take human professionals days of work.

AI-boosted hacks with Mythos could also have dire consequences for banks, which often use decades-old software, Reuters reported on Tuesday. 

Last year, Anthropic reported in November that a “Chinese state-sponsored group” manipulated its Claude Code tool in an attempt to infiltrate about 30 global targets and succeeded in a small number of cases.

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