CryptoQuant signal has flipped Bitcoin into early bull territory for the first time since March 2023, analysts say.

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, signaling what analysts describe as a potential transition away from bear-market behavior. The indicator is built on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which aggregates the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote on X that the shift “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.” Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 when the indicator flipped, having rebounded roughly 35% from February’s $60,000 lows.

Why analysts are not calling a confirmed bull market yet

The last confirmed green reading came in March 2023 and held continuously until August 2024, covering a period during which Bitcoin climbed from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The March 2022 signal is the critical exception: the indicator briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin extended its downtrend well into 2023.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a predictive crystal ball. “Historically, it has been most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset,” he said. Sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels are still required before the signal can be treated as validated.

Moreno flagged several secondary metrics showing exhaustion in the current setup. Bitcoin must decisively break the $82,000 resistance level, which has rejected multiple rally attempts, before the signal can be considered confirmed by price action.

What supporting data shows and what Hayes sees

Supporting the regime-shift thesis, April ETF inflows into spot Bitcoin products reached $2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin’s history, with the only comparable prior readings occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argued separately that Bitcoin already found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and identified $90,000 as the threshold at which any rally would turn explosive toward the prior all-time high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” citing strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 for the first time since January, briefly reaching $83K before pulling back slightly.
  
• Open interest surged from $48B to $58B while spot volumes hit two-year lows, signaling leverage-driven movement.
  
• Bitcoin ETF inflows added $623M, with Morgan Stanley’s new BTC ETF pulling $194M in its debut month alone.
  
• Tuesday’s CPI print and the Fed chair transition from Powell to Warsh are the next key macro triggers to watch.
  

Bitcoin’s return above $80,000 has drawn attention from market analysts, with trading firm Wintermute raising concerns about what is driving the move.

While the price milestone marks the first time BTC has traded at this level since January, Wintermute warns that the rally may not be as solid as it appears on the surface.

Short Squeeze Mechanics Behind Bitcoin’s Price Move

Bitcoin climbed to approximately $83,000 last week, breaking above its 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months.

The move coincided with a broader equity rally, with the Nasdaq gaining 4.5% and the S&P 500 rising 2.3% to fresh all-time highs. U.S. nonfarm payrolls also beat expectations, coming in at 115,000 against a consensus of 65,000.

Wintermute, however, pointed to the mechanics behind BTC’s price action as a reason for caution. Open interest in Bitcoin futures jumped from $48 billion to $58 billion over the past month. At the same time, spot trading volumes fell to two-year lows.

The firm noted on X: “BTC ground above $70k, nobody believed it, shorts piled in, got liquidated, and had to be covered by buying.” That dynamic, rather than fresh demand, appears to be what pushed prices higher.

Funding rates remain predominantly short, which means additional squeeze pressure could still push prices up. That said, Wintermute was clear that forced covering is not the same as genuine market conviction.

Institutional Flows Offer a More Constructive Long-Term View

Despite the short-term concerns, longer-term indicators tell a different story. Bitcoin ETF flows added $623 million during the period, and Morgan Stanley’s new BTC ETF pulled in $194 million in its first month without a single day of outflows. Exchange reserves remain at seven-year lows, pointing to steady accumulation by long-term holders.

Wintermute noted that whale accumulation and ETF inflows continue to absorb supply at current levels. However, the firm also observed that the institutional bid tends to reduce in size as prices move higher, which limits upside pressure over time.

The near-term focus now turns to macroeconomic events. Tuesday’s CPI release will offer the first clear look at how energy prices have fed into inflation.

Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s term ends Thursday, with Kevin Warsh’s confirmation expected to follow.

Wintermute stated that if Bitcoin holds above $80,000 through a macro shock, that would serve as genuine confirmation of a trend change.

A selloff in line with equities, however, would suggest the short squeeze was the primary driver all along. RSI is currently entering overbought territory, and spot demand needs to step in for the rally to hold.

TLDR:

• Ethereum’s Clear Signing standard now displays transactions in plain language instead of unreadable hex data. 
• Blind signing has contributed to billions in ecosystem losses, prompting this open standard’s coordinated launch. 
• ERC-7730 and ERC-8176 are the two core frameworks introduced to support human-readable transaction signing. 
• Contributors include Ledger, Trezor, MetaMask, Fireblocks, and WalletConnect, coordinated by the Ethereum Foundation.

Ethereum has officially launched the Clear Signing open standard, marking a major step forward in transaction security.

The initiative converts unreadable hexadecimal data into plain, human-readable text during transaction approvals. The Ethereum Foundation coordinated the effort alongside key industry contributors.

Together, they aim to address one of the most persistent security vulnerabilities in the Ethereum ecosystem. Blind signing has cost the industry billions of dollars over the years.

What the Clear Signing Standard Brings to Ethereum

The Ethereum Foundation announced the launch via its official X account on May 12, 2026. The post stated that clear signing is now live as an open standard to end blind signing.

It described the development as a major upgrade to both user experience and transaction security on Ethereum.

Until now, signing a transaction often meant approving a string of unreadable hex data. This practice, known as blind signing, has contributed to billions in losses across the ecosystem. Users had no way to verify what they were actually approving before confirming transactions.

The new standard changes that by displaying transaction details in plain language. Instead of raw technical data, users now see clear descriptions of what each transaction does. This gives people better control and awareness before they confirm any on-chain action.

The Ethereum Foundation noted the effort builds on existing clear signing work already present in the ecosystem. In particular, it acknowledged the approach pioneered by Ledger as a foundation for this broader, unified standard.

Key Components and Contributors Behind the Initiative

Several prominent names in the crypto industry contributed to the Clear Signing initiative. Wallet and hardware contributors include Ledger, Trezor, MetaMask, WalletConnect, and ZKnox. On the security side, Cyfrin participated, while Fireblocks and Zama represented infrastructure. Sourcify and Argot contributed tooling support.

The standard introduces ERC-7730, which provides an open framework for human-readable transaction descriptions.

Alongside it comes a neutral, mirrorable descriptor registry for broader accessibility. An attestation framework under ERC-8176 allows auditors to verify the integrity of transaction descriptors.

Open developer tooling has also been released for wallets, protocols, and auditors to use. These tools make it easier for developers to integrate the standard across different platforms. The goal is to drive adoption and expand coverage across the Ethereum ecosystem consistently.

The Ethereum Foundation confirmed the work is ongoing and not a one-time release. Contributors will continue expanding coverage, refining tooling, and pushing for wider adoption.

As more wallets and protocols integrate the standard, blind signing risks are expected to decrease steadily across the network.

Kraken parent Payward will plug Franklin Templeton’s BENJI tokenized money market fund into its platform as collateral and cash management, letting clients earn yield on idle dollars on‑chain.

Kraken’s parent company Payward and Franklin Templeton have announced a strategic partnership to tokenize traditional financial products and distribute them through Kraken’s exchange infrastructure, according to reporting by Decrypt.

BENJI meets xStocks in a $30B tokenization partnership

The immediate deliverable is an integration of Franklin Templeton’s BENJI tokenized money market fund into the Kraken platform, where it will function as collateral and a cash management tool for institutional clients — effectively letting professional traders park idle capital in a yield-bearing, on-chain dollar instrument without leaving the Kraken ecosystem.

BENJI, which Franklin Templeton launched in 2021 on the Stellar blockchain before expanding to Polygon, Arbitrum and other networks, is one of the longest-running tokenized money market funds in the industry and a direct competitor to BlackRock’s BUIDL, which recently crossed $2.3 billion in assets under management. By embedding BENJI into Kraken’s collateral framework, Franklin Templeton gains a distribution channel that reaches both institutional desks and the exchange’s large retail base in jurisdictions where the product is available, while Kraken gains a regulated, yield-generating dollar instrument it can offer as an alternative to idle USDT or USDC balances sitting in trading accounts.

Beyond BENJI, the two firms plan to use Payward’s xStocks framework as the foundation for new on-chain actively managed products, making Franklin Templeton’s investment strategies available to institutions and retail investors in specific jurisdictions. xStocks, a previous crypto.news story noted, has processed over $30 billion in transaction volume since launching last year, building a tokenized equity infrastructure that now spans more than 50 U.S. stocks and ETFs and positions Kraken as one of the leading venues for on-chain traditional asset exposure outside of dedicated RWA platforms like Ondo Finance.

Franklin Crypto, 250 Digital and the race to own on-chain distribution

The Payward partnership is one piece of a broader push by Franklin Templeton to build a vertically integrated crypto and tokenization business. The firm has advanced its dedicated crypto division, Franklin Crypto, through the acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital, adding research, portfolio management and distribution capabilities that complement its existing tokenized fund products. Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ spot ETF also led Monday’s XRP ETF inflow data with $13.6 million in a single day, making it the top product in a five-fund cohort that collectively pulled in $25.8 million — the largest daily XRP ETF inflow since January 5, 2026 — as covered in a recent crypto.news story.

Taken together, Franklin Templeton now has a spot XRP ETF, a tokenized money market fund on multiple chains, a crypto investment arm via 250 Digital, and a distribution partnership with one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. That stack puts it in a structurally different position from most traditional asset managers, which are still debating whether to file a single tokenized product rather than building an end-to-end on-chain distribution network. As a crypto.news story on BlackRock’s second tokenized fund SEC filing with Securitize showed, the race among the largest traditional asset managers to own on-chain distribution is now openly competitive, with BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Fidelity all moving simultaneously on tokenized product lines that would have been considered experimental as recently as 2023. For Kraken, landing Franklin Templeton as a product partner rather than just a custody client is the clearest signal yet that xStocks is evolving from a tokenized equity venue into a full institutional financial product platform with Wall Street names behind it.

21Shares’ Matt Mena says Bitcoin’s refusal to dump on hot CPI shows inflation is priced in, leaving the CLARITY Act vote as the next major catalyst for a push toward $90K.

21Shares analyst Matt Mena argued in a note published by Sina Finance that Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of elevated U.S. inflation data is itself a bullish signal, writing that BTC “did not decline due to inflation data,” which he interprets as evidence that “the market has already priced in the overheating inflation data.”

With Bitcoin currently trading around $82,010 — a level confirmed by Gate market data showing a 0.81% 24-hour gain — the $80,000 level is now being treated as a structurally significant floor rather than a soft support, with Mena framing it as the threshold above which the macro-to-bull-market transition remains intact.

Inflation is priced in, $80,000 holds as the line in the sand

The inflation data in question refers to the latest U.S. CPI print, which came in above consensus expectations and would, in a prior cycle, have triggered a sharp BTC sell-off as traders priced in a more hawkish Fed path. The fact that it did not — and that Bitcoin instead grinded higher — is the core of Mena’s thesis: the market is no longer treating every hot inflation print as a binary negative for risk assets, suggesting that the macro resistance that capped BTC’s upside through most of 2025 is gradually being absorbed. That repricing dynamic is consistent with how institutional investors, including the corporate treasury buyers and ETF allocators who now dominate marginal BTC demand, tend to behave: they buy dips on bad macro news rather than selling, because their investment horizon is measured in years rather than trading sessions.

A previous crypto.news story on Bitcoin’s technical structure noted how open interest has been climbing across derivatives venues even as spot price consolidates, a pattern that technicians read as coiled energy rather than distribution, and that sits alongside MicroStrategy’s confirmed stack of 818,869 BTC worth roughly $65.8 billion as evidence that the largest holders are not treating current levels as a selling opportunity.

CLARITY Act vote as the $90,000 catalyst

Mena’s price path is sequential: first a clean break and close above $82,000 resistance, then a push toward $85,000 as macro headwinds clear, and finally a potential run toward $90,000 if the Senate CLARITY Act vote delivers a positive outcome. That legislative catalyst is now imminent, with Senator Cynthia Lummis confirming on X that the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Act is entering Senate Banking Committee markup this week after nearly a year of bipartisan work, and the White House targeting a Trump signature before July 4.

The CLARITY Act’s direct relevance to Bitcoin price is less about Bitcoin’s own regulatory status — which is broadly settled as a commodity — and more about what a comprehensive U.S. digital asset framework does to institutional risk appetite across the entire crypto market. When allocators at pension funds, endowments and family offices see a clear legal distinction between digital commodities and digital securities, with CFTC jurisdiction over the former and a workable registration path for the latter, the compliance barrier that has kept many of them in “watch and wait” mode since 2022 begins to dissolve. That re-engagement, expressed through ETF inflows, separately-managed account allocations and further corporate treasury accumulation, is the mechanism by which the CLARITY Act translates into BTC price rather than being a purely symbolic milestone.

In that context, Mena’s $90,000 target looks conservative rather than aggressive. A crypto.news story on the legislative backdrop for Bitcoin’s next move noted that options markets are already pricing a meaningful probability of a $90,000 to $95,000 test before end of May, and that the convergence of the CLARITY Act markup, the May 14 House stablecoin vote and BlackRock’s new tokenized fund SEC filing — covered in a separate crypto.news story — creates a week in which multiple institutional confidence signals are firing simultaneously for the first time in this cycle. Whether $90,000 arrives this month or in Q3, the structural argument is the same: inflation is already in the price, the legislative framework is weeks away, and the largest holders are still buying.

Ray Dalio said Bitcoin lacks privacy and its transparency is why central banks will not hold it.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio posted on X on May 11 that Bitcoin’s public ledger is the core reason central banks are unlikely to adopt it as a reserve asset. “Bitcoin lacks privacy,” Dalio said. “Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it.”

Dalio, who allocates roughly 1% of his own portfolio to bitcoin, framed the post as an extension of comments he first made on the All-In Podcast in March. He identified three structural weaknesses: lack of privacy, high correlation with technology stocks, and a market size still far smaller than gold’s.

Why Dalio favours gold over bitcoin

“Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system,” Dalio wrote. He pointed to Bitcoin’s tendency to trade in line with Nasdaq-listed tech stocks, arguing that this reduces its appeal as an independent hedge when investors face pressure elsewhere in their portfolios.

Dalio’s comments arrived as Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq Composite climbed from 0.16 to 0.85 since the Iran war began, per data from TradingView. He also raised the possibility of future quantum computing threats to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, a concern security experts say affects the entire financial system rather than Bitcoin alone.

The broader debate around Bitcoin and central bank reserves has intensified since the US government formally established a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2025 and several other sovereign wealth vehicles began accumulating BTC, though at volumes still small compared with gold holdings globally.

Saylor and Bitwise push back

Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor responded directly, calling Bitcoin’s transparency a feature rather than a flaw. “It is precisely what makes Bitcoin usable as global collateral,” he said, arguing that a verifiable, auditable asset that any party can confirm without trusting a third party is structurally superior for institutional use.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan offered a more nuanced counter, conceding that Dalio’s concerns are real but arguing they represent an investment opportunity rather than a permanent barrier. “These criticisms are quite literally the opportunity,” Hougan said. “If these critiques did not exist, bitcoin would already be at $1 million a coin.”