Bitcoin-focused public company Nakamoto Inc., led by chairman and CEO David Bailey, has signed definitive agreements to acquire BTC Inc. and UTXO Management GP, LLC in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $107.3 million.

The deal brings together companies closely tied to Bailey, who co-founded BTC Inc. and later helped launch UTXO Management, under a single publicly listed Bitcoin-focused entity.

Under the terms of the deal, Nakamoto will issue common shares to the sellers at a pre-negotiated price of $1.12 per share. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions.

The acquisition brings together media, events, and asset management businesses under a single public holding company. BTC Inc. is best known for publishing Bitcoin Magazine and organizing The Bitcoin Conference, one of the largest Bitcoin-focused gatherings globally. UTXO Management advises Bitcoin-centric investment vehicles and focuses on capital allocation across public and private markets.

Nakamoto said the combination is designed to create a vertically integrated Bitcoin platform with diversified revenue streams.

David Bailey’s expanding Bitcoin platform

The deal further consolidates businesses tied to David Bailey, Nakamoto’s chairman and CEO. Bailey co-founded BTC Inc. in 2013 and later helped launch UTXO Management.

“Bringing BTC Inc and UTXO into Nakamoto has been a part of our vision since day one,” said David Bailey. “We intend to operate a portfolio of companies across media, asset management, and advisory services that can scale with Bitcoin’s long-term growth.

Over the past decade, he has been an active voice in the Bitcoin (BTC) industry and has served on the board of the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

Nakamoto has positioned itself as a Bitcoin-native public vehicle focused on media, advisory services, and treasury strategy. The company’s leadership has signaled interest in further expansion as institutional adoption of Bitcoin grows.

If completed, the transaction would mark a notable consolidation in the Bitcoin sector, combining publishing, large-scale events, and capital management operations within a single listed entity.

XRP price grinds higher as XRP Ledger stablecoin velocity hits a 1-year peak, signaling rising real payment activity behind the price action.

As of Feb. 18, XRP (XRP) is trading around $1.48, with 24‑hour moves roughly flat to slightly positive (about +0.1% to +0.7% depending on venue).

Data shows XRP at $1.48 with a 24‑hour change of +0.11%, a circulating supply near 60.92 billion tokens and a market cap close to $89.96 billion. CoinMarketCap and other trackers broadly confirm a 24‑hour volume in the $2.2–$2.4 billion range and total XRP supply of roughly 100 billion.

For context, Bitcoin trades near $67,900, down about 0.8–0.9% on the day, on more than $33 billion in 24‑hour volume. Ethereum changes hands around $1,998–$2,000, up about 0.5% over the last 24 hours, with spot volume near $2.7 billion.

Velocity on XRPL: capital actually moving

Stablecoin value is accruing to the XRP Ledger, and relatively fast. Roughly $425 million in stablecoins now sit on XRPL, up 6.6% over the 30 days ending Feb. 12, with Ripple’s RLUSD accounting for about 83% of that pool. In monetary terms, that base is the ledger’s “money stock.”

The more important signal for price, however, is velocity. According to one analyst, “Stablecoin transfers rising can often be an even more informative piece of information than stablecoin supply rising, because it hints that people are actually moving money rather than just parking it.” Over the last 30 days, XRPL processed around $1.2 billion in stablecoin transfer volume, a 57.5% jump that the author calls “a huge surge in volume, to say the least.”

In macro terms, you have a growing stock ($425 million in stablecoins) turning over faster ($1.2 billion in transfers), meaning each unit of capital is circulating multiple times a month. That rising throughput supports fee burn, forces participants to hold XRP as reserve collateral, and tends to anchor speculative rallies in actual payment activity rather than pure narrative.

Implications for XRP price path

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is getting used for what it was built to do. In other words, velocity is laying the rails before price tries to break out. Higher payments flow can attract more businesses and developers to build on the ledger, and they’ll need to buy and hold some XRP to do so, while more activity means more XRP is being used to pay transaction fees.

Still, does this mean you should drop $2,000 into XRP today? For traders used to beta‑chasing, the message is blunt: watch the velocity and on‑chain cash flow first; the sustainable leg higher in XRP likely comes only once that fundamental usage persists through the current drawdown.

Bitcoin price is stabilizing after a sharp correction, but on-chain data suggests the real story may lie beneath the surface.

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near the $68,000 level, Arkham Intelligence’s latest ownership data reveals who controls a large share of supply and that concentration could shape the next breakout or breakdown.

Bitcoin price recently fell from the mid-$90,000 region earlier this year to a local low near $60,000 before rebounding. At press time, price action shows consolidation below the 50-day simple moving average, which sits around $83,000. That level now acts as dynamic resistance.

Until bulls reclaim it, upside momentum remains capped.

The daily chart shows heavy selling through late January and early February. A sharp capitulation candle drove price toward $60,000, followed by a reflex bounce.

However, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains slightly negative at around -0.03. This suggests capital inflows are still weak. Momentum has improved, but conviction is not yet strong.

While short-term momentum remains fragile, ownership structure tells a longer-term story.

Bitcoin whale concentration and supply control

Arkham’s 2026 data shows Bitcoin ownership remains highly concentrated. Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallets still hold roughly 1.096 million BTC, representing over 5% of total supply.

Coinbase controls close to 1 million BTC, while Binance holds more than 600,000 BTC. BlackRock’s spot ETF alone holds over 760,000 BTC. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, controls more than 400,000 BTC. The U.S. government also holds over 300,000 BTC.

This concentration matters. Large holders reduce effective circulating supply when coins remain dormant. Satoshi’s coins have never moved. Corporate and ETF holdings also tend to be long-term allocations rather than short-term trading inventory. That structurally tightens supply during periods of demand expansion.

However, exchange balances are a different story. When large exchanges hold significant BTC reserves, liquidity remains accessible. If exchange-held Bitcoin begins declining while ETFs continue accumulating, the float could tighten quickly. In that scenario, even modest demand could trigger an outsized upside move.

What it means for Bitcoin price’s next move

Technically, Bitcoin must reclaim the 50-day SMA near $83,000 to confirm a bullish reversal. A break above that level could open a move back toward $90,000. Failure to hold $65,000 may expose $60,000 again.

Structurally, whale dominance suggests long-term supply remains constrained. If institutional demand returns while major holders stay inactive, price pressure could build quickly.

The next decisive move will likely depend on whether capital inflows return and whether the biggest holders continue to sit tight.

Editor’s note: In a milestone year for the company, eToro’s public results reflect a strategic pivot to a global, AI-enabled investing platform with a growing multi-asset offering. The press release below provides the official quarterly and full-year numbers, while this editorial note highlights the broader implications for users, investors, and the evolving financial landscape. As eToro expands access to markets, introduces AI-powered tools, and moves toward on-chain capabilities, readers can gauge how the platform aims to empower a new generation of investors across regions and asset classes.

Key points

• Full-year 2025: Net Contribution up 10% to $868 million; GAAP Net Income up 12% to $216 million; Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income up 10% to $251 million; Adjusted EBITDA up 4% to $317 million; Adjusted Diluted EPS of $2.64.
• Q4 2025: Net Contribution down 10% to $227 million; GAAP Net Income up 16% to $69 million; Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income up 6% to $70 million; Adjusted EBITDA down 19% to $87 million; Funded Accounts rose to 3.81 million; AUA grew to $18.5 billion; cash and equivalents at $1.3 billion.
• January 2026 KPIs show continued activity across capital markets, crypto, and money transfers, signaling ongoing platform utilization and growth momentum.
• Strategic focus areas include AI adoption, 24/7 access for select assets, and app ecosystem expansion ahead of the eToro App Store launch.

Why this matters

eToro’s results underscore a transition to a multi-asset, digital-first investing platform that leverages AI and on-chain capabilities to broaden access, personalization, and cross-border reach. With a stronger balance sheet, diversified revenue streams, and ongoing product innovation, eToro is positioned to capture long-term growth opportunities while expanding services for retail and professional users worldwide.

What to watch next

• Rollout of 24/7 access to select assets with plans to expand across asset classes.
• Launch of several apps ahead of the eToro App Store, enabling investor builders to publish and share tools.
• Ongoing share repurchase activity and potential accelerated programs as part of capital allocation strategy.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

eToro Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

UAE, Abu Dhabi, February 17, 2026 – eToro Group Ltd. ( NASDAQ: ETOR ), the trading and investing platform, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 which ended December 31, 2025.

“This was a milestone year for eToro,” said Yoni Assia, CEO of eToro. “We became a publicly traded company and significantly advanced the build-out of our global financial super-app. In 2025, we accelerated product innovation and AI adoption, expanded access to global markets, broadened and localized our offering, and strengthened eToro’s footprint around the world. We are operating at a pivotal moment for financial services. Artificial intelligence and progress towards on-chain market infrastructure are reshaping how people invest and interact with markets and eToro is uniquely positioned to capture this opportunity. Through our public APIs and suite of AI-powered tools, users and partners can build, share, and scale strategies and tools, as part of a growing ecosystem. We are launching a number of apps ahead of the roll out of the eToro App Store, bringing enhanced capabilities to our retail audience. In parallel, we are positioning eToro for a financial system that is increasingly moving on-chain. With our long-standing leadership in crypto and tokenization, we are well placed to help shape this transition. This quarter, we are introducing 24/7 access to select popular assets with plans to expand around-the-clock access across asset classes. Our focus remains on empowering users through a simple, transparent, and digital-first investing experience, while positioning eToro to serve the next generation of investors at every stage of their journey. We are uniquely positioned as both a natively crypto company and a global equities trading platform. We look forward to capturing the many long-term growth opportunities ahead for the benefit of our users, shareholders, and partners.”

Meron Shani, CFO of eToro, said: “Our fourth quarter results reflect the strength and resilience of our mult-asset business model. We delivered compelling financial performance through a combination of diversified revenue streams, healthy funded accounts growth, and disciplined financial management. Furthermore, we are off to a strong start to 2026 with our January capital markets KPIs demonstrating the ability of our platform to adapt and perform across all different market conditions, including the recent spike in commodities trading. With our strong balance sheet and a clear execution roadmap, we believe that we are well positioned to deliver accelerated growth in 2026.”

Full year 2025 Financial Highlights¹

• Net Contribution increased by 10% year over year to $868 million, compared to $788 million in 2024.
• Net Income (GAAP) increased 12% year over year to $216 million, compared to $192 million in 2024.
• Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP) increased 10% to $251 million, compared to $228 million in 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) increased by 4% year over year to $317 million, compared to $304 million in 2024
• Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $2.64, compared to $2.67 in 2024.

Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights²

• Net Contribution decreased by 10% year over year to $227 million, compared to $253 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Net Income (GAAP) increased 16% year over year to $69 million, compared to $59 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP) increased 6% year over year to $70 million, compared to $67 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) decreased by 19% year over year to $87 million, compared to $108 million in the fourth quarter of 2024
• Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $0.71, compared to $0.79 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Funded Accounts increased 9% year over year to 3.81 million compared to 3.48 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Assets Under Administration (AUA) grew by 11% year over year to $18.5 billion, compared to $16.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.
• Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments were $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2025.

January KPI metrics³

eToro also reported the below selected monthly business metrics for January 2026:

• Assets under Administration (AUA) were $18.4 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
• Funded accounts were 3.85 million, up 9% year-over-year.
• Capital Markets/ECC Activity
  • Total number of trades for January was 74 million, up 55% year-over-year;
  • Invested amount per trade for January was $252, up 8% year-over-year;
• Crypto Activity
  • Total number of trades for January was 4 million, down 50% year-over-year;
  • Invested amount per trade for January was $182, down 34% year-over-year;
• Interest Earning Assets for January was $7.7 billion, up 17% year-over-year.
• Total Money Transfers for January was $1.8 billion, up 68% year-over-year.

Business Highlights

eToro is demonstrating strong progress across its four product pillars driven by continued product innovation, localization, and strategic partnerships.

• Trading: eToro expanded access to global markets while advancing toward always-on trading. With the addition of equities listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and across the Nordics, eToro now offers access to equities from 25 stock exchanges. The Company grew its crypto offering to more than 150 cryptoassets, including an expanded range of more than 100 cryptoassets for US users. eToro also broadened derivatives access, expanding its futures offering across Europe and launching futures and options in the UK. It has also begun the roll out of stock margin trading, where eligible users can access leveraged exposure to U.S. equities. In 2025, eToro expanded 24/5 trading to all S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 stocks, and in Q1, the Company is introducing 24/7 access to a select number of popular assets with plans to expand this across asset classes.
• Investing: eToro strengthened its investing proposition by expanding access to intelligent, long-term investment solutions. The Company launched Tori, its AI Analyst, and through its public APIs and suite of AI-powered tools, users and partners can build, share, and scale strategies and tools, creating a growing ecosystem. This quarter, eToro is introducing a number of apps ahead of the launch of the eToro App Store, where ‘investor builders’ and partners can publish and share their apps with millions of eToro users globally. eToro continued to expand its range of Smart Portfolios including launching portfolios with Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, ARK Invest and Amundi. The launch of Alpha Portfolios provides retail investors with access to quantitative, data driven strategies leveraging eToro’s data for the benefit of our customers. Having pioneered social investing, users can follow, copy, and engage with over 5,000 members of eToro’s Pro Investor Program, with Copy Trading now also launched in the US. During 2025, eToro introduced securities lending in the UK, Europe and the UAE, as well as expanding its staking program to help users access passive yield generating opportunities. eToro launched the eToro Club Subscription providing access to premium investing tools, financial perks and dedicated support.
• Wealth Management: eToro continued to scale its long-term savings solutions in 2025. The Company partnered with Generali to provide French users with access to long-term, tax advantaged retirement (PER) and life insurance products. eToro also expanded its ISA offering in the UK with the addition of a self-directed stocks and shares ISA and a cash ISA. The AuA in eToro’s UK ISA products grew by 7x from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Assets under administration in our Australian savings products grew 44% between 2023 and 2025, supported by strong momentum following the launch of our superannuation offering.
• Neo-Banking: During 2025, eToro accelerated the localization of its money management experience. The expansion of local bank accounts to more countries and the continued roll out of the debit card across Europe resulted in eToro Money’s transaction volume increasing 6.5x year-over-year. eToro Money ended the year with 1.87 million accounts. eToro Money, including eToro’s crypto wallet, is now fully integrated into the eToro app and provides seamless crypto transfers including 1% stock-back rewards on eligible crypto transfers.
• Partnerships: eToro announced a multi-year partnership with BWT Alpine Formula 1 extending the business’ global brand presence and engagement with a fast-growing, international audience. eToro also entered into a partnership with Gemini Space Station Inc to support the migration of their customers from the UK, Europe and Australia onto the eToro platform, reinforcing its position as a leading, global, multi-asset broker.

Share Repurchase Program
eToro today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a $100 million increase to its existing share repurchase program. The program previously authorized $150 million, of which $100 million has already been used, leaving $50 million remaining. Following the increase, total remaining authorization is $150 million. Such repurchases may be made through a variety of methods, including through open market transactions (including through Rule 10b5-1 plans), privately negotiated transactions, block trades and by way of an accelerated share repurchase program. Additionally, subject to market and other conditions, the Company intends to enter into an Accelerated Share Repurchase (“ASR”) agreement to repurchase approximately $50 million of its common shares under the new authorization. This authorization reflects the Company’s confidence in its long-term strategy and growth prospects, financial strength, and commitment to deliver shareholder value. eToro believes that its current share price does not fully reflect the Company’s fundamental value, and that repurchasing shares represents a prudent allocation of capital. The program also provides additional flexibility to support potential future strategic initiatives, including mergers and acquisitions, where eToro shares could serve as an effective transaction currency. The actual timing, number, manner and value of any shares repurchased will depend on several factors, including the market price of our shares, general market and economic conditions, our liquidity requirements, applicable legal requirements and other business considerations. The authorization does not expire.

About eToro

eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have 40 million registered users from 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media center here for our latest news.

On-chain social platform and decentralized protocol Zora is making a decisive shift beyond its non-fungible tokens (NFT) and creator roots with the launch of “attention markets” on Solana, a product that allows users to trade tokens tied to internet trends, memes and cultural moments.

The feature, unveiled Feb. 17, lets anyone create a new market for 1 SOL. Once live, users can buy and sell positions on whether a topic will gain or lose traction across social media.

Instead of wagering on elections or macro data, traders speculate on buzz itself — such as hashtags, viral narratives, even broad themes like “AI girlfriend” or “bitcoin.”

The design leans heavily into Solana’s strengths. Fast block times and low transaction costs make it easier to support rapid price updates and frequent trading, which are essential for markets built around fleeting online momentum.

Initial activity was limited, however. The primary “attentionmarkets” token briefly touched roughly $70,000 in market capitalization, with around $200,000 in trading volume. Most other trend markets struggled to attract meaningful liquidity, with few crossing the $10,000 mark in their first day.

Percentage swings were sharp, though largely driven by thin order books rather than sustained demand.

Zora was among the breakout applications on Coinbase’s Layer 2 Base network in the past few years. It launched its ZORA token there in April, and helped roll out Creator Coins tied to Base profiles in July, a push that briefly helped Base overtake Solana in daily token creation.

Creator coins are tokens tied to an individual creator’s online profile, brand or community. Think of them as tradable “shares” in a person’s internet presence.

On platforms like Zora and Base, a creator coin could be automatically generated from a user’s profile. Fans could buy the coin to signal support, gain social clout, or speculate that the creator’s popularity would grow. As more people bought in, the price could rise, and interest faded, it could fall.

As such, some in the Base community saw the new “attention markets” product as a pivot away from that momentum.

Jacek Trociński, the developer behind Base memecoin Degen, called it “really disappointing” to see Zora move to Solana. Veil Cash builder Apex777.eth was harsher, accusing Zora of “extracting” value from Base before switching networks.

Meanwhile, Base creator Jesse Pollak said Zora’s creator tools remain “fully operational” on the network.

As speculation moves beyond price charts and into cultural data, platforms like Zora are testing whether attention itself can become memetic and deeply tied to the internet’s real-time financial pulse.

The legal clash between Kalshi and Nevada regulators intensified this week as the state’s gaming authority pressed forward with enforcement actions after a federal appeals court refused to halt the state’s conduct. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday denied Kalshi’s bid to block the Nevada Gaming Control Board from pursuing a civil case over Kalshi’s sports event contracts, effectively clearing the path for the regulator to proceed in state court. In short order, the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil enforcement action, arguing Kalshi offers unlicensed wagering in violation of Nevada gaming law. Kalshi countered by seeking to move the dispute to federal court, echoing its long-held position that its activities fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The evolving dispute highlights a broader, unsettled regulatory landscape for prediction markets in the United States.

Key takeaways

• The Ninth Circuit refused Kalshi’s request to pause Nevada’s enforcement efforts, allowing a state-court civil action to proceed against Kalshi over sports-related markets.
• Following the ruling, the Nevada Gaming Control Board immediately filed a civil enforcement action in state court, asserting Kalshi operates unlicensed wagering on sporting outcomes in violation of state law.
• Kalshi maintains it operates under exclusive federal jurisdiction and has argued that federal law supersedes state-level actions in this area, leveraging the CFTC’s authority over commodity derivatives.
• The case mirrors similar tensions in other states and among other prediction-market operators, underscoring a broader regulatory crackdown on unlicensed gaming-like activity in the prediction space.
• The regulatory narrative is being shaped in part by federal involvement, with the CFTC signaling its stance on jurisdiction over prediction-market activity and related contracts.

Sentiment: Bearish

Market context: The dispute sits at the intersection of state gaming regulation and federal commodity rules, a space that remains legally unsettled as regulators and platform operators test boundaries around prediction markets and their licensing needs. The CFTC has emphasized its jurisdiction over commodity derivatives traded on designated contract markets, while states push for traditional licensing regimes where wagering is involved.

Why it matters

For Kalshi, the Nevada case is a test of its central premise—that prediction-market activity should fall under federal oversight rather than state gaming statutes. If the state court ultimately concludes that Kalshi’s sports event contracts require licensing under Nevada law, Kalshi may face injunctions, penalties, or the need to halt certain markets within the state. The immediate practical effect would be to constrain Kalshi’s ability to offer sports-related contracts to Nevada residents, reinforcing the idea that licensing requirements can operate at the state level even when a company argues federal preemption.

For other prediction-market operators, the unfolding legal framework signals heightened regulatory risk. The ongoing tension between state enforcement actions and federal jurisdiction could prompt platforms to seek clearer licensing pathways or, in some cases, to trim or relocate markets to jurisdictions with more predictable rules. The broader regulatory climate also matters for investors and developers evaluating the growth potential of prediction-market ecosystems, including partnerships and product designs that align with licensing realities rather than contending with uncertain legal status.

From the federal perspective, the CFTC’s posture—evidenced by statements and amicus actions in related cases—suggests a willingness to defend a permissive view of what constitutes a derivative market under federal law. That approach has implications for how products are structured, how they are offered to users, and how regulators coordinate across state and federal lines. The involvement of the CFTC in similar matters, including its stance in parallel suits against other states, indicates that the federal framework may ultimately steer product development and regulatory compliance norms in the prediction-market space.

The case is also emblematic of a wider policy conversation about the boundary between what constitutes gaming under state law and what falls under the umbrella of commodity derivatives regulated by the federal government. As technology enables more sophisticated event-based contracts and as states consider licensing to govern consumer protections, a clearer, nationwide standard remains elusive. The legal arguments that Kalshi has advanced—namely, that its markets are governed by federal commodity laws rather than state wagering statutes—will likely continue to echo through courtroom corridors as other jurisdictions weigh similar actions.

The regulator’s position is reinforced by the state’s explicit assertion that Kalshi’s offerings amount to wagering on sports outcomes and therefore qualify for licensing under Nevada law. The regulatory calculus hinges on whether these contracts are sufficiently akin to traditional gaming or whether they can still be framed as commodity derivatives that fall under federal oversight. The Ninth Circuit’s decision not to pause the state’s enforcement action confirms that the state court system will be the next arena where these questions are tested, at least in the near term.

As this legal saga unfolds, observers will watch for how Kalshi frames its next strategic move—whether to intensify its federal-venue approach, pursue further appeals, or seek negotiated licensing accommodations that could permit continued operation in Nevada and beyond. The regulatory momentum in other states, along with potential federal actions, will shape the tempo and direction of future actions by prediction-market platforms and the regulators overseeing them.

For reference, Kalshi’s dispute has roots in earlier regulatory correspondence, including a cease-and-desist order that spurred Kalshi to sue Nevada in March of the previous year and a federal court ruling in April that temporarily blocked Nevada from taking action during the litigation. The state’s subsequent civil enforcement action underscores a shift from courts determining temporary relief to real-world enforcement remedies that could affect ongoing offerings. The legal arguments—centered on licensing requirements, intent to operate in a regulated gaming environment, and the scope of federal jurisdiction—will likely shape how prediction markets navigate compliance moving forward.

The broader industry context includes a notable cross-pollination of interests between traditional gaming regulators and digital-asset-adjacent markets. With players like Crypto.com pursuing similar matters against Nevada regulators, and with political and legal attention on the legality and design of prediction markets, the industry stands at a crossroads where licensing frameworks, consumer protections, and innovative financial instruments intersect. As these threads converge, the coming months are likely to produce more clarity—and more controversy—about where prediction markets fit within the U.S. regulatory tapestry.

Source references tied to the ongoing dispute include Nevada Gaming Control Board filings and docket activity, as well as court documents detailing Kalshi’s attempts to move the case to federal court. For a snapshot of the state-level actions, the regulator’s official filings and statements provide direct attestations of the legal theory the state is pursuing against Kalshi.

What to watch next

• The state court civil enforcement action against Kalshi in Nevada: timeline for hearings and potential rulings.
• Any subsequent filings or rulings from the Ninth Circuit or federal courts on Kalshi’s venue arguments and potential appeals.
• Further amicus briefs or regulatory filings from the CFTC or other federal agencies regarding jurisdiction over prediction-market activities.
• Developments in parallel cases, such as Crypto.com’s challenges to Nevada regulators and any related state actions against other prediction-market operators.

Sources & verification

• Nevada Gaming Control Board press release and complaint PDF alleging Kalshi’s unlicensed wagering (kalshi-complaint.pdf).
• Nevada Gaming Control Board press release on civil enforcement action against Kalshi (ngcb-files-civil-enforcement-action-against-kalshi.pdf).
• CourtListener docket for State of Nevada ex rel. Nevada Gaming Control Board v. Kalshi LLC (docket entry showing the federal motion and related filings).
• Kalshi’s federal court venue motion referenced in court records (CourtListener docket).
• CFTC amicus brief discussion in related Crypto.com case in Nevada (Cointelegraph coverage referencing the CFTC stance).

Kalshi and Nevada clash over sports contracts

The dispute between Kalshi LLC and the State of Nevada over Kalshi’s sports-event contracts has moved from a regulatory order into a courtroom duel over jurisdiction and licensing. After Kalshi’s bid to halt Nevada’s enforcement was rejected by the Ninth Circuit, the regulator proceeded with a civil action in state court, arguing that Kalshi’s offerings amount to unlicensed wagering under Nevada law. Kalshi contends that its activities are subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction, a claim it has pressed since the outset of the case and one it has framed around the CFTC’s authority over commodity derivatives.

In a sequence of filings and rulings, the parties have mapped a jurisdictional battleground that is likely to influence the trajectory of prediction-market operators beyond Nevada. Kalshi’s argument rests on the premise that prediction-market contracts function as commodity derivatives and therefore belong under the federal oversight of the CFTC. Nevada’s counterpoint emphasizes licensing requirements within the state’s gaming framework, asserting that even if a contract resembles a derivative in structure, it still implicates wagering and gaming activities that require state licensing. The Ninth Circuit’s decision to deny a stay removes a preliminary hurdle for the state to pursue civil remedies, allowing the underlying enforcement to proceed while the broader jurisdictional questions continue to percolate in appellate and district court settings.

Public filings and press materials from the Nevada regulator outline the legal theory at stake: Kalshi’s markets are active in the state, but Kalshi has not secured the necessary licenses to operate those markets within Nevada’s borders. The regulator has pointed to the state’s existing framework for gaming and wagering to argue that Kalshi must obtain licenses for its sports contracts. Kalshi, meanwhile, has sought to position the matter within the federal regime that governs designated contract markets and other CFTC-regulated activities, arguing that state enforcement risks duplicative and conflicting obligations for a market participant operating across multiple jurisdictions.

As regulators, courts, and market participants monitor this case, the central questions will revolve around licensing, consumer protections, and the proper allocation of regulatory authority between state gaming authorities and federal commodity regulators. Should Kalshi prevail on the federal-venue theory in the long run, it could pave the way for broader operation of prediction-market platforms without state-level licensing, provided federal law offers a clear path. Conversely, a ruling affirming Nevada’s licensing demands could constrain Kalshi’s services in the state and prompt similar actions in other jurisdictions, thereby shaping the practical viability of prediction markets as a class of financial products in the United States.

For now, the Nevada case stands as a pivotal, high-stakes test of how prediction markets fit into a complex mosaic of gaming and commodities regulation. The coming months are likely to reveal how the regulatory regime coalesces—or fractures—around questions of licensing, jurisdiction, and the boundary between gaming normalities and financial-derivative constructs in the evolving landscape of digital markets.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board has filed a civil enforcement action against KalshiEX LLC, accusing the federally regulated prediction market of offering unlicensed wagering in the state.

Nevada moves to block Kalshi’s event trading

In a complaint filed in Carson City District Court, regulators argue that Kalshi’s sports-linked “event contracts” amount to gambling under Nevada law. The state is seeking declaratory relief and an injunction to stop the company from operating in Nevada without a gaming license.

According to the complaint, making “event contracts” available to Nevada residents without approval from the Nevada Gaming Commission violates multiple provisions of the state’s gaming code.

“The Board continues to vigorously fulfill its obligation to safeguard Nevada residents and gaming patrons,” said NGCB Chairman Mike Dreitzer.

Kalshi quickly moved to shift the case to federal court, reiterating its long-standing position that it falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and not state gaming regulators.

State law vs. Federal oversight

Kalshi maintains that its contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the U.S. CFTC, not traditional bets. The company operates as a CFTC-designated exchange and says federal law preempts state gaming rules.

Nevada disagrees. Regulators argue that contracts tied to sports outcomes mirror sportsbook wagers and fall squarely under state jurisdiction.

The Board says allowing unlicensed operators would undermine Nevada’s tightly controlled gaming framework.

Nevada also recently sued the crypto exchange Coinbase over prediction markets launched through a Kalshi partnership.

The lawsuits come amid a growing national legal battle over whether prediction markets such as Kalshi fall under state gambling laws or are exclusively governed by federal regulators. States including Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio and Tennessee have also challenged prediction markets, issuing cease-and-desist orders or filing lawsuits to block unlicensed sports event contracts.

Meanwhile, the CFTC has pushed back, defending its authority over event contracts. In earlier disputes, Kalshi secured temporary relief in court, though those wins have been limited and closely watched.

At issue is who controls the fast-growing prediction market sector — federal derivatives regulators or state gaming boards.

The outcome could reshape how Americans trade on elections, sports and economic events. It may also determine whether prediction markets operate nationwide under a single federal regime, or face a patchwork of state gambling laws.

XRP (XRP) price extended its slide on Wednesday, adding to a downtrend that has erased 44% of its value over the past year.

Amid this, a market analyst has highlighted unusual trading activity emerging from South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, raising questions about its potential impact on XRP’s price dynamics.

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Study of 82 Million Trades Flags Structural Selling in XRP/KRW Market on Upbit

Crypto analyst Dom claims to have uncovered what he describes as a nearly year-long, multi-billion-dollar XRP selling pipeline. In a thread published on X (formerly Twitter), Dom said his findings are based on 82 million tick-level XRP/KRW trades on Upbit, alongside 444 million trades from Binance for comparison.

According to his analysis, Upbit’s XRP pair has recorded a net negative cumulative volume delta every month for the past 10 months. 

“It started with yesterday’s price action. -57M XRP in CVD over 17 hours. It looked insane. So I ran forensic queries – bot fingerprinting, iceberg detection, wash trade checks. The selling was real. Algorithmic. 61% of trades fired within 10ms. Single bot running 17 hours straight with one 33-second pause,” he wrote.

Dom highlighted several months with particularly heavy negative cumulative volume delta (CVD), including April (-165 million XRP), July (-197 million XRP), October (-382 million XRP), and January (-370 million XRP). In total, he reports that only 1 of 46 weeks in the sample period showed net positive buying pressure.

“And it’s not ‘the market’ – Binance XRP/USDT carries 2-5x less sell pressure on the same coin (shocker). In June, Binance was net positive while Upbit bled -218M. The hourly correlation between the two venues is only 0.37. Upbit’s flow is largely its own thing,” the post added.

Dom argues the selling appears algorithmic. Between 57% and 60% of trades were executed within 10 milliseconds, a pattern typically associated with automated systems. He also observed that sell orders frequently appeared in round-number sizes such as 10, 100, or 1,000 XRP.

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Meanwhile, buy orders were often fractional amounts like 2.537 XRP, consistent with KRW-denominated retail purchases.

“Ten million fractional buy orders over 10 months. Compared to the sell side running mechanical round number clips. Two completely different profiles trading against each other on the same venue,” the analyst added.

Furthermore, the analyst noted that from April to September, XRP on Upbit reportedly traded at a 3% to 6% discount to Binance, a “reverse Kimchi Discount.”

“The sellers were accepting 6% worse fills than available on global markets, for many months. They don’t care about the price. They need KRW, are mandated to use Upbit, and/or are Korean holders taking profit,” he stated. “Then October 10 happened. The premium has only briefly gone negative since and the sellers? They doubled their daily rate. From -6.3M/day to -11.2M/day.”

He estimates that the overall activity accounts for 3.3 billion XRP, worth $5 billion, in “net selling.” This represents about 5.4% of the token’s circulating supply. While Dom does not identify a specific entity behind the activity, he describes the flow as consistent, 24/7, and infrastructure-like rather than discretionary trading.

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“So who has enough XRP to sell 300-400M per month for a year straight, doesn’t care about 6% discounts, runs identical algo infrastructure 24/7 and needs KRW specifically or is in some walled garden and can only use Upbit? AND who are they selling to? Who’s been on the other side of that trade? It could be 1 entity, 50 entities or 10k people I’ll let you speculate,” Dom remarked.

Why Does This Matter?

This matters because sustained, large-scale selling may influence price dynamics over time. A consistent flow of sell orders may limit upward momentum, intensify declines during periods of market stress, and absorb buying demand before it translates into meaningful price appreciation. 

The impact is particularly relevant given that XRP was the most traded asset on Upbit in 2025. If this pattern is accurate, it would suggest that a significant source of supply has been active within one of the world’s most active XRP markets, with retail participants frequently on the opposite side of those trades. 

Should that selling pressure decrease or stop, overall market behavior could shift as the balance between supply and demand adjusts.

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The findings come as XRP balances on Upbit have reached a one-year high, exceeding 6.4 billion XRP, accounting for nearly 10% of the circulating supply.

In contrast, exchange reserves continued to decline on Binance, reflecting a divergence between Korean XRP investors and participants in other markets.

Taken together, the reported structural selling on Upbit and the rise in XRP balances on the exchange point to a sustained flow of tokens circulating within that venue. At the same time, contrasting reserve trends and accumulation patterns observed on other exchanges highlight a divergence in regional market behavior.