Sam Bankman-Fried has failed to overturn his fraud conviction in a federal appeals court, securing no relief from the 25-year prison sentence that followed the collapse of FTX. A unanimous three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit rejected his bid, concluding that the government’s case was, in the court’s words, “conservatively stated, robust,” according to Reuters.

The ruling means Bankman-Fried remains bound to the sentence imposed in 2024, where the conviction stemmed from fraud and conspiracy charges related to the multibillion-dollar failure of FTX. The decision also arrives while he pursues an additional legal path: a request for a presidential pardon that was formally submitted to the US Department of Justice Office of the Pardon Attorney earlier this month.

Key takeaways

• Bankman-Fried’s appeal was rejected unanimously by the Second Circuit, leaving his 25-year prison sentence in place.
• The appeals court characterized the government’s evidence as “robust,” affirming that the conviction should stand.
• The decision does not end his efforts—Bankman-Fried is still pursuing clemency through the presidential pardon process.
• Public statements from President Donald Trump suggest clemency is unlikely, despite his history of granting at least one high-profile pardon.

Second Circuit rejects Bid for relief

In rejecting Bankman-Fried’s request for relief, the Second Circuit panel concluded that the trial and the government’s presentation of the case were sufficiently supported under the standards for overturning a criminal conviction. As reported by Reuters, the court’s unanimous ruling underscored that the prosecution’s case was strong and appropriately described.

Judge Barrington Parker’s written remarks, as quoted in the case reporting, emphasized the contrast between Bankman-Fried’s public reassurances and the conduct alleged in the prosecution. Parker wrote that while Bankman-Fried was publicly assuring customers, investors, and regulators that FTX customer funds were safe, he allegedly used FTX as “his own personal piggy bank,” spending customer funds on items including real estate, political contributions, and investments.

For observers who have followed FTX’s collapse and its aftermath, this appeal outcome matters beyond the individual defendant: it reinforces the judiciary’s willingness to treat the case as more than an industry failure, but as fraud and conspiracy serious enough to withstand appellate scrutiny.

A separate front: presidential pardon effort

Even with the appeals court setback, Bankman-Fried is continuing to challenge his situation through clemency. Cointelegraph reported earlier that he has formally applied for a presidential pardon from US President Donald Trump, with the request appearing on the US Department of Justice Office of the Pardon Attorney website in early June.

This pardon process represents a different type of review from an appeal. Where appellate courts evaluate legal errors and the strength of the record, clemency is discretionary and typically influenced by political and public considerations rather than courtroom standards.

Bankman-Fried has said in an interview with Fox Business that he is “absolutely” seeking a presidential pardon. However, the odds appear limited based on prior statements.

Trump’s prior comments and past pardons

According to reporting referenced in the article, Trump told The New York Times in January that he had no plans to pardon Bankman-Fried. A White House spokesperson, meanwhile, declined to comment on the clemency request, and Bloomberg pointed back to Trump’s earlier remarks in connection with the formal pardon application.

Still, the president has granted high-profile pardons before. The article notes Trump pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the darknet marketplace Silk Road, shortly after returning to office. Ulbricht had been serving two life sentences plus 40 years before the pardon in January 2025.

That example is often cited in discussions about whether clemency is politically plausible. But it also highlights an asymmetry: Bankman-Fried’s case is widely associated with mainstream financial fraud narratives in regulated markets, while Ulbricht’s case is commonly framed around the legality of the Silk Road marketplace and Bitcoin’s role as a payment method. Even when both outcomes involve pardons, the political calculus can differ markedly.

What the appeals ruling signals for the broader crypto legal landscape

The Second Circuit’s decision lands in a period when the crypto industry remains under intense regulatory and legal pressure following high-profile collapses. For market participants, the practical takeaway is that the legal system continues to treat major exchange failures and related conduct as potential criminal matters that can survive multiple layers of review.

Bankman-Fried’s appeal failure also suggests that arguments aimed at overturning convictions—at least in this instance—face a high bar once a conviction is supported by a trial record and withstands initial judicial scrutiny. While the outcome of a presidential pardon is not governed by appellate standards, the court’s affirmation narrows the room for incremental relief through the justice system itself.

In the near term, investors and builders are likely to focus less on legal “hopes” for reversal and more on the clemency track. Yet the public record around Trump’s earlier statements provides a caution flag: even where pardons are possible, expectations may be mismatched with political reality.

As the DOJ pardon process unfolds and the President’s stance remains the decisive variable, readers should watch two things closely: any movement on the clemency request and the continued stability of the criminal-legal outcome despite further attempts to seek relief.

Ether (ETH) has struggled to regain the $1,700 level over the past week, a sign that downside pressure is still outweighing demand from leveraged derivatives traders. The weakness in ETH has unfolded alongside broader market hesitation, but the details in futures positioning and on-chain activity point to a more specific problem: traders are less interested in adding bullish risk at current prices.

While ETH futures sentiment has turned clearly bearish, Ethereum’s staking backdrop remains firm. Network staking queues and ongoing accumulation by large holders suggest that at least part of the market is still positioning for long-term value, even if short-term trading appetite has cooled.

Key takeaways

• ETH failed to reclaim $1,700 this week, reflecting continued market-wide softness and lack of renewed bullish demand.
• According to Laevitas, ETH perpetual futures annualized funding flipped negative on June 5, with shorts paying to keep positions open.
• CoinGlass data shows total ETH futures exposure fell about 30% over a month to a 13-month low, indicating reduced institutional participation.
• Despite bearish derivatives, Ethereum staking demand remains strong: validator entry queue is about 50 days with a large staked base, while exit queue shows no wait time.
• On-chain activity has weakened, with Ethereum TVL down and DApp revenues falling—an imbalance that helps explain softer ETH utility and trader interest.

Derivatives positioning stays bearish as leveraged interest fades

The latest ETH price pullback is closely mirrored by deteriorating leveraged futures conditions. Traders monitoring perpetual funding rates saw a key inflection on June 5: ETH perpetual futures annualized funding moved into negative territory, a setup that typically signals persistent short-side pressure and discourages new longs from chasing upside with leverage.

Even though ETH has corrected roughly 30% over the past five weeks, bullish traders appear reluctant to “lean in” given the risk-reward profile implied by negative funding. This matters because funding is often treated as an early indicator of where the marginal demand for long exposure is coming from—or, in this case, where it is not.

Open interest has also declined. CoinGlass data cited in the report indicates that ETH futures aggregate open interest dropped sharply, pulling total futures exposure down about 30% in a month to a 13-month low. When open interest contracts alongside negative funding, it usually reflects less participation from larger players who tend to set the tone for institutional-style trades.

This shift is consistent with U.S.-listed Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Over two weeks, those products recorded $323 million in net outflows, reinforcing the theme that institutional appetite has weakened even as staking-related demand appears to hold up.

Staking demand holds, but Ethereum usage looks softer

One of the most notable tensions in the current data is that staking metrics are supportive while broader on-chain indicators point lower. The report attributes the negative trading sentiment partly to declining Ethereum on-chain activity, which can translate into reduced fee generation and less perceived utility for ETH.

DefiLlama data shows Ethereum total value locked (TVL) fell 33% over two months to $37.5 billion. In parallel, decentralized application (DApp) revenues dropped 43% in May compared with the prior six-month period. For traders, sustained declines in TVL and DApp revenue often correlate with muted network activity expectations—making it harder for a price floor narrative to take hold quickly, even if staking remains attractive.

Yet staking is doing something different. The same period shows stronger demand for Ethereum staking exposure and continued accumulation by large holders. Although the spot ETF yield referenced in the report is modest at 2.7%, the direction of flows around staking-related positioning appears more constructive than what futures traders are reflecting.

Validator queues suggest long-term confidence despite short-term weakness

Staking “queue” data provides another window into how the market is thinking about Ethereum’s future. According to the report, the staking validator entry queue currently sits around 50 days, with more than 2.9 million ETH in the entry queue. Meanwhile, the exit queue shows zero wait time—meaning stakers are not currently facing delays to withdraw.

At the same time, the report notes that 39.5 million ETH are already staked. That combination—deep participation in staking alongside an exit queue with no wait—can be interpreted as confidence rather than panic. While staking does not guarantee investors will hold indefinitely, queue conditions are frequently treated as an indicator of how much demand exists to join validation right now.

Exchange deposits fall, pointing to accumulation even as derivatives shrink

The derivatives unwind is matched by behavior in spot supply indicators. Glassnode-based exchange balance figures cited in the report show ETH deposits on exchanges declined to 15.05 million from 16.15 million three months ago, suggesting a net movement away from exchanges that aligns with accumulation behavior.

Part of that accumulation is attributed to BitMine. CoinGecko data referenced in the report indicates BitMine added 337,078 ETH to its balance sheet over the past 30 days. The implication is that while traders may be stepping back from leveraged bullish positioning, at least some larger buyers are consolidating ETH off-exchange—often a supportive factor for longer-horizon price narratives.

Importantly, the report cautions against reading weak demand for bullish leverage as an automatic signal of rising downside risk. If staking metrics remain resilient and ETF outflows do not escalate into a more severe structural drain, the likelihood of an aggressive selloff appears lower than what bearish derivatives alone might imply. The same analysis argues that a crash toward $1,500 looks less likely under these conditions.

Still, investors should watch two things closely next: whether Ethereum’s on-chain activity continues to deteriorate (TVL and DApp revenue trends) and whether institutional flows in U.S. Ether spot ETFs keep moving decisively lower. If either of those turns worsens, it could pressure both staking enthusiasm and the tentative support implied by off-exchange accumulation.

XRP and Little Pepe highlight the trade-off between established crypto assets and higher-risk presale opportunities.

Investing $1000 in the crypto market is not as simple as it used to be. Before, there were fewer cryptocurrencies. However, with thousands of options today, investors are stuck between established meme coins and newer entrants.  

That is exactly what makes the XRP versus Little Pepe debate interesting. One is already a major player in crypto. The other is still in presale but is quickly attracting attention for its growth potential. This article will consider both sides and decide which crypto is best to buy now with $1000.

Ripple: Institutional gravity and a price that has not caught up

XRP trades at $1.14 as of when writing. Its market cap of $70.4 billion is large enough to give XRP real institutional gravity. It’s, however, not so large that meaningful upside becomes mathematically implausible.  XRP hit an all-time high of $3.84 in January 2018. This means the token is currently trading 70% below that peak. This is a gap that represents genuine recovery potential if the catalysts in play actually land. And the catalysts are real.

Ripple’s spot XRP ETF has accumulated $1.43 billion in cumulative inflows since its November 2025 launch. May 2026 alone set a monthly record of $131.94 million.  This is a remarkable figure given that it came during a period of broad market weakness. Additionally, daily transactions on the XRP Ledger recently grew 3x to 3 million.  

XRP price outlook: Can $5 still happen?

Many analysts believe XRP’s most bullish outcome for 2026 is $5. This represents a potential 340% gain from current levels. That is a credible scenario with identifiable catalysts. A $1,000 position in XRP at $1.14 would be worth approximately $4,380 at $5.  Hence, XRP is a serious asset in a serious position. However, the question for a $1,000 investor is whether serious is where the biggest returns come from right now.

Little Pepe: Where the math gets uncomfortable for anyone watching from the sidelines

LILPEPE is currently in Stage 13 of its presale at $0.0022 per token. Over $28 million has been raised, with more than 17 billion tokens sold. That is not a project in early discovery. That is a project at the edge of its presale entry before open-market pricing takes over entirely. What makes Little Pepe’s infrastructure argument worth taking seriously is not the token itself but what it represents within the ecosystem. 

This is a Layer 2 blockchain built from the ground up for one specific purpose: meme tokens. It’s a chain where every design decision, from the fee architecture to the sniper bot prevention baked into the protocol, was made with meme token communities as the primary user. Pepe’s Pump Pad, the project’s native launchpad, sits at the center of that ecosystem. Every meme project that launches through it generates fees, transactions, and demand that cycle directly back into the LILPEPE network.  

That is a revenue-generating mechanism tied to platform usage, not to speculation. It is the same kind of usage-tied value model that Coinbase’s institutional outlook identified as the differentiating factor between durable crypto projects and purely narrative-driven ones.

Little Pepe market position and catalysts

Little Pepe has achieved several key milestones since its presale began. It has completed a Certik audit. The token is also live on CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko listings, allowing users to track it. These are not easy feats for presale projects.  Additionally, two Tier-1 centralized exchange listings are confirmed at launch, with the world’s largest exchange in the pipeline. Such grand launches could position LILPEPE for rapid adoption.  

Its $777,000 community giveaway has strengthened community participation. With ten lucky participants set to win $77,000 worth of LILPEPE tokens each, the project has proven its value for community empowerment.  Now the math. A $1,000 position in LILPEPE at $0.0022 buys approximately 454,545 tokens. For that position to match a 340% return, XRP would need to reach its $5 bull case; LILPEPE would only need to reach $0.0097. This target doesn’t sound impossible. For it to reach $0.10, the return on that $1,000 entry is over $45,000. None of those numbers requires LILPEPE to become a top-10 asset. They require it to find a fraction of the audience that DOGE, SHIB, and the meme token sector broadly have already demonstrated exists.

The verdict

XRP is not a bad investment with $1,000. The institutional tailwinds are real, and the regulatory pathway is clearer than ever. A patient XRP holder may do very well over the next 12 to 18 months. But Little Pepe (LILPEPE) at $0.0022 is operating in a completely different return profile. XRP needs $70 billion in market cap to move meaningfully. LILPEPE needs a fraction of that. For the investor looking for the best crypto to buy now with $1000, the answer here is not complicated.  The Little Pepe presale is still open at $0.0022 on the official project website. The window is nearly gone.

For more information about Little Pepe, visit the official website, X, and Telegram, read the whitepaper, and join the 777k giveaway.

Key takeaways:

• While bearish ETH futures trends and spot ETF outflows signal weak institutional appetite, staking demand prevents further decline.
• Falling exchange deposits and accumulation by BitMine indicate holder confidence in ETH’s long-term value.

Ether (ETH) price failed to reclaim the $1,700 level over the past week, tracking a broader weakness across cryptocurrency markets. This correction contrasts sharply with the bullish momentum seen in the US stock market. Traders worry that Ether’s appeal has faded due to sluggish on-chain activity and a distinct lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions.

ETH futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

The ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate flipped negative on June 5, meaning shorts are paying premiums to keep their positions open. Bullish traders remain uncomfortable adding risk despite a 30% price correction over the past five weeks. The ETH futures aggregate open interest has also dropped significantly, indicating a pullback in institutional activity.

ETH futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges, ETH. Source: CoinGlass

Total exposure on ETH futures has fallen 30% in a month, hitting a 13-month low. This shrinking institutional appetite is evident in US-listed Ether spot exchange-traded funds, which posted $323 million in net outflows over two weeks.

ETH staking demands contrast with weak on-chain activity

Regardless of whether the decline in ETH futures demand can be pinned to record-breaking demand for the SpaceX (SPCX US) IPO, the impact on trader sentiment remains negative. Declining Ethereum on-chain activity has likely fueled this ETH price downtrend.

Ethereum Total Value Locked vs. weekly DApp revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlama

The total value locked (TVL) on the Ethereum network dropped 33% in two months to $37.5 billion. Concurrently, decentralized application (DApp) revenues plunged 43% in May compared to the previous six months. This reduced on-chain volume is typically associated with lower network fee generation and falling ETH utility.

Curiously, rising demand for Ethereum staking contrasts sharply with the bearishness in ETH derivatives. Staking approval for US-listed ETFs and aggressive accumulation by BitMine (BTMN US) vastly outpaced outflows during the period, despite a modest 2.7% yield.

ETH staking validator queue, ETH. Source: ValidatorQueue

The entry queue for ETH staking validators currently sits at 50 days, totaling over 2.9 million ETH. In contrast, the exit queue has zero wait time, a major sign of strength, given that 39.5 million ETH are currently staked. While there is no guarantee that stakers will lock up their tokens forever, this metric signals deep confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

Related: ETH futures traders lean into $1.6K range lows: Will Ether lead market recovery?

ETH estimated balance on exchanges, ETH. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, exchange-held ETH deposits dropped to 15.05 million from 16.15 million three months ago, pointing to heavy accumulation. This shift was partly driven by BitMine, which added 337,078 ETH to its balance sheet over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko data.

Ultimately, weak demand for bullish ETH leverage shouldn’t be misread as a sign of rising downside risk. As long as staking metrics stay solid and spot ETF outflows remain reasonably contained, the odds of an ETH price crash to $1,500 look slim.

Circle moved about $4.4 billion in USDC to a Coinbase address through HyperEVM, according to Arkham, in what the analytics firm called the largest USDC transaction ever.

Circle sends record USDC transfer

Arkham said Circle moved $4 billion to Coinbase on HyperEVM. The transfer involved about 4.397 billion USDC and went to a Coinbase-linked address.

“Circle just moved $4 billion to Coinbase on HyperEVM,” said Arkham.

The transfer stood out because of its size and route. HyperEVM is linked to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, where USDC plays a main role in trading, quoting, and settlement.

Arkham also described the move as the largest USDC transaction ever. The transaction has drawn attention because it connects Circle, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid at a time when stablecoin liquidity is becoming more central to onchain markets.

Coinbase role on Hyperliquid adds context

The transfer appears connected to Coinbase’s role as Hyperliquid’s USDC treasury deployer. Coinbase announced in May that it would expand support for USDC on Hyperliquid under the Aligned Quote Asset framework.

Coinbase said the setup would strengthen USDC’s role as the preferred stablecoin for onchain capital markets. The company also said concentrating liquidity around USDC could make markets more efficient by reducing the need for conversions.

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USDC had already become the leading stablecoin on Hyperliquid. Coinbase said USDC supply on Hyperliquid had reached about $5 billion and had doubled year over year.

That makes the large Circle transfer easier to read as part of a wider treasury and liquidity setup, rather than a normal exchange deposit. Still, neither Circle nor Coinbase had issued a separate public statement on this specific transfer at the time of writing.

Hyperliquid shifts stablecoin structure

The Coinbase and Hyperliquid arrangement also affects USDH, the Native Markets stablecoin tied to the ecosystem. Coinbase said Native Markets agreed to terms giving it the right to purchase USDH brand assets.

USDH markets remain active for now, but Coinbase said they will be phased out over time. Users can still convert USDH to USDC without fees or redeem it for fiat during the transition.

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Hyperliquid has also said Circle will serve as the technical deployer for CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure. Coinbase will handle the USDC treasury side, while Circle supports the technical flow of USDC across chains.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Hyperliquid had already reached record trading activity before this treasury shift. Moreover, Circle’s native USDC and CCTP V2 were expected to support direct on and off ramps, cross-chain transfers, and better liquidity for DeFi and derivatives markets.

The record transfer puts fresh attention on stablecoin flows across major onchain trading venues. USDC is widely used for collateral, settlement, and quote markets, so large treasury movements can shape liquidity conditions.

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BITCOIN ASIA 2026 ANNOUNCES FIRST WAVE OF SPEAKERS FOR AUGUST HONG KONG EVENT

Balaji Srinivasan, Simon Gerovich, Hugh Hendry, and Other Additional Voices from Global Finance, Policy, and Bitcoin Infrastructure Confirmed for Asia’s Largest Bitcoin Conference

Nashville, TN, USA — June 11, 2026 — Bitcoin Asia 2026 today announced its first wave of confirmed speakers for the two-day conference taking place August 27–28 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC). The event is organized by BTC Inc. a subsidiary of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) and presented by Metaplanet.

Headlining the event is Balaji Srinivasan, founder of Network School and author of The Network State, one of the most recognized voices at the intersection of Bitcoin, technology, and sovereign network theory. Srinivasan joins a speaker lineup spanning institutional capital, legislative policy, macro finance, and Bitcoin development.

“We are incredibly excited to bring together the East and West bitcoin markets, industries, and communities to build through this bear market and continue to explore the ways bitcoin is changing the world around us.” Brandon Green, CEO at BTC Inc.

This year’s programming centers on the convergence of Eastern and Western Bitcoin ecosystems at a defining moment for institutional adoption. Sessions will span macro and monetary policy, corporate treasury strategy, Bitcoin infrastructure, and the regulatory landscape across Asia.

Additional confirmed speakers include:

• Dr. Hon. Johnny Ng, Kit Chong MH, JP, Member of the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
• Bilal Bin Saqib, Pakistan’s Minister of State, and Chairman of the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority
• Justin Sun, Ambassador and former Permanent Representative of Grenada to the WTO, Founder of TRON, and Advisor to WBTC and HTX
• Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, a leading global crypto exchange and one of the world’s largest derivatives trading platforms
• Simon Gerovich, CEO of Metaplanet, Japan’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder and the Bitcoin Asia 2026 title sponsor
• David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA)
• Hugh Hendry, founder of Acid Capitalist and former global macro hedge fund manager and founder of Acid Capitalist, known for his public conversion to Bitcoin as a monetary asset
• Matt Cole, Chairman and CEO of Strive, a publicly traded Bitcoin treasury and structured finance company
• John Riggins, CEO and Co-Founder of Moon Inc, a leading operator in Hong Kong’s prepaid products market
• Caspar Wong, CEO of Web3Labs and a key figure in Hong Kong’s Bitcoin ecosystem
• Koji Higashi, Co-Founder of Diamond Hands, a leading Bitcoin community organization in Japan

Bitcoin Asia 2026 is expected to welcome more than 10,000 attendees from 125+ countries for two days of main stage programming, investor sessions, policy dialogue, and open-source development discussions.

Additional speakers will be announced in the weeks ahead. Ticketing and other information is available at asia.b.tc. Press credentials can be requested at asia.b.tc/contact/press-pass.

Tickets

https://asia.b.tc/ use CryptoBreaking10 for a 10% discount.

About BTC Inc.

BTC Inc. is the world’s leading Bitcoin media enterprise, operating Bitcoin Magazine, the Bitcoin Conference, andBitcoin for Corporations. Through its media, events, and educational platforms, BTC Inc. delivers trusted news, research, and experiences that advance Bitcoin adoption among individuals, institutions, and enterprises worldwide.BTC Inc. is a subsidiary of Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), a publicly held Bitcoin company that owns and operates a global portfolio of Bitcoin-native enterprises.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this press release constitute forward-looking statements, as defined under U.S. federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “potential,” “intend,” “could,” “would,” “may,” “plan,” “will,” “seek,” “target,” or the negative of such terms or other variations thereof. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements in this press release include, but are not limited to, statements regarding BTC Inc.’s business plans and strategies, including plans for new products, services, and media platforms; projected or targeted audience size, reach, impressions, and distribution; expected launch dates and production schedules; the Company’s advocacy positions and the expected outcomes of industry and regulatory engagement; and the anticipated role and growth of Bitcoin-related media, events, and educational services.These forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and involve numerous assumptions and risks. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected include, but are not limited to: (i) the volatility of Bitcoin prices and its effect on audience interest, advertiser demand, and the commercial viability of Bitcoin-focused media; (ii) changes in audience size, engagement, or platform distribution that could affect BTC Inc.’s reach or revenue; (iii) the risk that new products or services, including new media platforms, may not launch on schedule, achieve projected audience levels, or generate anticipated revenue; (iv) the risk that advocacy or industry engagement efforts may not achieve their intended outcomes; (v) dependence on third-party distribution platforms whose policies, algorithms, or terms of service may change; competition from other media companies and content providers; (vi) the evolving regulatory environment for digital assets and its potential impact on BTC Inc.’s operations, content, and audience; (vii) reliance on key personnel and creative talent; the risk that projected audience metrics, impressions, or distribution figures may not be achieved or sustained; (viii) risks associated with the integration of BTC Inc. into Nakamoto Inc.’s operations following the February 2026 acquisition; (ix) general economic conditions and their impact on advertising and events revenue; and (x) other important factors detailed in Nakamoto Inc.’s Annual Reports on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, Current Reports on Form 8-K, and other documents that are filed, or will be filed, with the SEC and that are or will be available on Nakamoto’s website at www.nakamoto.com and on the website of the SEC at www.sec.gov.Because Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA) is the parent company of BTC Inc., investors in Nakamoto Inc. common stock should be aware that the performance and risks of BTC Inc.’s media, events, and educational operations may affect the consolidated financial results, reputation, and regulatory profile of Nakamoto Inc. and its subsidiaries. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and neither BTC Inc. nor Nakamoto Inc. undertakes any obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

Crypto traders are already positioning around SpaceX’s IPO through a synthetic perpetual market, and one large account is sitting on paper gains—highlighting how quickly equity speculation can migrate into leveraged derivatives.

According to data on Hypurrscan, a whale has opened an isolated 2x leveraged long on “xyz:SPCX,” a synthetic pre-IPO perpetual contract tied to SpaceX. The position is currently valued at about $22.29 million and, based on entry and recent pricing, is showing more than $1.15 million in unrealized profit after only limited funding costs.

Key takeaways

• The whale’s isolated 2x long on synthetic SPCX is worth about $22.29 million, with unrealized profit of roughly $1.15 million.
• Synthetic SPCX trades near $175—around 30% above SpaceX’s $135 IPO offer price—suggesting traders expect a strong first-day move.
• IPO history cited from Jay Ritter’s research shows first-day outperformance often benefits offer-price holders more than late buyers.
• Multiple valuation estimates from traditional investors point to potential post-listing downside, which could matter for leveraged traders if prices revert.

A large leveraged bet already in the money

The Hypurrscan listing for address 0x9cc10bd3c7e2486c0ae4623e4f7cc3ff143fac56 shows the trader holding an isolated long position on xyz:SPCX. The notional size is about $22.29 million, and the account appears to have entered near $168.

With the synthetic market recently trading around $175, the whale’s position is left with an estimated unrealized gain of approximately $1.15 million. The position has reportedly incurred just over $500 in funding fees so far—an important detail for traders because funding can erode profits on leveraged perpetuals if the market remains on one side for long periods.

While the account shows strong mark-to-market performance, it also implies downside risk. The liquidation level is reported around $93.27; if SPCX were to fall to that threshold, the position could face an estimated loss of roughly $9.4 million.

Why synthetic SPCX is trading at a premium

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and plans to raise about $75 billion by selling roughly 555.6 million shares, putting the company’s valuation at around $1.77 trillion. The stock is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

In the synthetic perpetual market, traders are effectively paying up. At roughly $175, SPCX is trading about 30% above the IPO price, according to the coverage and chart references cited in the original reporting. That premium implies crypto derivatives participants are leaning toward a strong early rally—potentially before broader equity trading fully reflects the listing.

Market-implied expectations across other platforms align with the same direction. Bloomberg cited derivatives “implied” valuations suggesting SpaceX could be priced around $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the IPO valuation. Polymarket also reportedly placed odds that the company will land in a $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion market-cap range on the first day of trading.

For traders, the practical takeaway is that the synthetic market is not merely tracking the IPO; it is pricing in a sequence of outcomes. When the derivative premium is large, it can reflect optimism—but it can also set up crowded positioning, especially if the first prints in the equity market fail to match expectations.

IPO dynamics: first-day strength doesn’t always help later entrants

Even with a 30% premium signaling aggressive demand, IPO history cautions against interpreting early pricing as a durable trend—particularly for investors entering after the initial enthusiasm.

According to Jay Ritter’s IPO database (as cited in the original article), US IPOs from 2020 to 2025 averaged about 30% first-day gains. However, Ritter’s research also emphasizes that much of that upside accrues to investors who actually receive shares at the offer price. Buyers who arrive only after the opening print typically face a different setup as sentiment and order-flow normalize.

Ritter’s longer-run analysis (2001 to 2024) further indicates that companies with positive first-day returns averaged a 29.6% debut gain, but later underperformed the broader market by about 8.5 percentage points over the next three years. The pattern becomes sharper for higher-valuation offerings: IPOs with trailing sales above $100 million and price-to-sales ratios above 40 reportedly delivered an average three-year return of -44.8% for buyers at the first close.

The original reporting frames SpaceX as one of the most oversubscribed IPOs in recent memory, and it notes that the company is going public at nearly 94 times trailing sales—an attribute that, in Ritter’s framework, is associated with more challenging post-listing performance.

Recent listings cited as analogs underline how quickly “day-one” attention can fade. Cerebras (CBRS) reportedly opened significantly above its offer price, then declined sharply after the first session. The original article also references post-debut pressure in deals like Rivian (RIVN) and Uber (UBER), connecting part of the drawdown to the timing of lockup expirations that can increase supply.

Traditional valuation warnings add pressure to the bullish trade

Beyond derivatives pricing, traditional valuation perspectives also raise the question of whether synthetic SPCX’s premium is justified.

Morningstar’s Nicholas Owens, as cited in the original coverage, valued SpaceX at about $780 billion—roughly 55% below the IPO price—arguing that the stock appears significantly overvalued and that investors should wait for the share price to settle after listing.

NYU professor Aswath Damodaran, also cited, estimated fair value around $1.25–1.3 trillion and described the $135 offer as “rich.” Another view from analyst The Fundamental Investor, referenced via an X post, suggested the stock is likely to trade below the IPO price, potentially leaving early retail buyers underwater for years.

For crypto traders using leverage, these warnings matter because they intersect with the mechanics of perpetuals. If SPCX begins to mean-revert toward a range closer to offer-price expectations, leveraged longs—especially those initiated at the first signs of premium—can unwind quickly due to margin constraints and liquidation risk.

That makes the whale position’s margin profile a key monitoring point. With liquidation indicated around the low $90s, the trade has meaningful room on paper if the market stays elevated, but it also carries asymmetric risk if the IPO underwhelms relative to what the synthetic premium implies.

Going forward, readers should watch how the synthetic SPCX premium evolves once the IPO opens on Nasdaq—particularly whether early equity prints validate the ~30% uplift or trigger a rapid premium compression in the perpetual market. Until then, the gap between traditional valuation skepticism and crypto derivatives pricing is likely to remain the central tension for anyone taking leveraged exposure.

Coinbase has moved deeper into the AI-agent trend by launching “Coinbase for Agents,” a tool designed to let artificial intelligence models connect to a user’s Coinbase account to make payments and execute crypto trades on the user’s behalf.

Announced Thursday in a blog post, the offering targets a growing narrative across the sector: that increasingly capable AI systems will perform many small, repetitive transactions—such as automated trading routines and micro-payments—faster and more consistently than manual workflows.

Key takeaways

• Coinbase for Agents is intended to let AI models connect to a user’s exchange account and submit trades or strategies based on prompts.
• The company says agent payments can be enabled through Coinbase’s AI payments protocol x402, aimed at letting bots pay for data services involved in strategies.
• Access is offered via both a model context protocol (MCP) approach and a developer-friendly command-line interface.
• Coinbase also introduced “Coinbase Advisor,” an agent integrated into its app that the company describes as SEC- and CFTC-registered for advisory guidance.
• Recent academic research raises a caution: in studied cases, token holders reportedly lost more than agent treasuries gained on paper, and many projects showed limited proof of fully autonomous trading.

What Coinbase for Agents actually enables

Coinbase says Coinbase for Agents allows AI models such as ChatGPT and Claude to connect with a user’s exchange account. Once connected, the models can be prompted to place trades or carry out pre-defined trading strategies.

The tool is positioned for developers and integrations rather than as a standalone consumer feature. Coinbase said it will be available through two routes: via a model context protocol (MCP), which supports connecting AI models to external systems, and through a command-line interface for building and automating workflows.

The company’s framing emphasizes reduced oversight for users. In its description, the goal is to manage crypto activities “without the constant manual oversight,” including tasks like distributing funds to reward programs and scheduling recurring purchases.

Payments for agents via x402

Beyond trading, Coinbase says AI agents can also make payments using its AI payments protocol x402. The practical implication is that agents could pay for third-party services—such as data providers—needed to execute trading logic, without direct human involvement at every step.

This matters because many AI-agent use cases depend on pulling information from external systems in real time or near real time. If an agent cannot pay for those services, the workflow often breaks into manual steps. Coinbase’s approach suggests it is trying to reduce that friction by providing a payment channel built for automation.

Coinbase previously highlighted x402 in an AI-payments context, and the new announcement ties that capability directly to agent behavior—linking account connectivity, strategy execution, and agent-to-service payments within a single ecosystem.

Coinbase Advisor and the boundary between guidance and execution

Alongside Coinbase for Agents, Coinbase introduced “Coinbase Advisor,” an AI agent integrated into its app. Coinbase states that Coinbase Advisor is a US Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered financial adviser and can offer guidance on trades.

The distinction between guidance and execution is likely to be important for users trying to understand risk and responsibility in automated systems. Coinbase’s broader agent tool is described as enabling AI models to connect to an exchange account and carry out prompts that can include trades. Coinbase Advisor, by contrast, is framed as advisory support inside the app.

Coinbase also offered an illustrative example of how agents could automate a routine: it described an ETH dollar-cost averaging scenario where an agent would pull 30 days of hourly price data, identify historically low times of day, then schedule a recurring $20 market buy at those times for a defined period.

Why the AI-agent pitch is gaining traction—and why it’s controversial

Coinbase’s launch lands during a period when many crypto infrastructure firms are betting that AI agents will become active participants across services, not just consumers. In the same general direction, Circle recently introduced tools intended to help AI agents use wallets, discover services, and make programmable payments with its token, with CEO Jeremy Allaire predicting that “billions of AI agents” will use stablecoins within five years. Earlier, Crossmint launched a service allowing AI agents to make payments using eligible Visa credit and debit cards.

There are also industry claims about real-world transaction volume involving autonomous agents. A report from crypto investment firm Keyrock in May said AI agents quickly created an “developed ecosystem,” citing $73 million settled across 176 million transactions between May 2025 and April 2026.

At the same time, a study published last month introduces a counterpoint that should temper expectations about fully autonomous performance. According to the research, conducted by teams including Pantera Capital, Stanford University, Ava Labs, and the Initiative for Cryptocurrencies and Contracts, investigators reviewed over 925,000 token holders. The paper reports that agent treasuries made gains of $30 million on paper, while token holders collectively lost $191.7 million.

The study also argues that many projects it examined did not provide clear evidence of autonomous trade execution, with a substantial share described as “basic API integrations.” In other words, the presence of an agent-like interface may not necessarily imply real autonomy in trading decisions or execution quality.

For investors and developers, that tension matters: if agent systems are not truly operating independently, or if incentives and outcomes are misaligned, the expected benefits—such as consistent execution or superior risk-adjusted returns—may not materialize for end users.

What to watch next

As Coinbase for Agents rolls out, users and builders should watch how Coinbase defines—and practically enforces—the line between AI planning, payment authorization, and actual trading execution, especially given recent research questioning the level of autonomy in some agent-driven token ecosystems. The next signals will likely be adoption details, integration documentation, and whether third-party evaluations confirm that these agents deliver value beyond the interfaces they provide.

Crypto trading platforms Bybit, Binance, Bitget Wallet and MEXC canceled their tokenized SpaceX IPO campaigns and offered refunds for users as SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq on Friday. 

SpaceX’s IPO, which was reported as more than four times oversubscribed, raised $75 billion as it became a publicly traded company. SpaceX shares opened for trading at $150 on Friday, up from its IPO price of $135. It closed the day at $161.11, valuing the company at over $2 trillion. 

However, major crypto platforms offering tokenized access to the IPO were unable to fulfill demand for SpaceX allocations, with several blaming Kraken-owned xStocks’ inability to deliver the underlying assets. 

Bybit, which was offering tokenized access to SpaceX through its new Bybit IPO Express, was one of the first to announce the cancellation. 

“Due to xStocks’ inability to deliver the underlying assets, no SpaceX allocations were received. As a result, subscribed users will not receive SpaceX allocations.”

Binance’s SpaceX tokenized IPO campaign, which attracted over $557 million in USDC deposits, said it was unable to proceed to the campaign due to “circumstances outside of our control.” Binance Wallet was also relying on xStocks. 

Source: Changpeng Zhao

Bitget Wallet and MEXC also said they would be refunding affected users after being unable to secure an allocation of xStocks’ tokenized SPCX. 

Related: Bitcoin surfs SpaceX IPO at $64K as trader warns key BTC price support may crumble

“It’s disappointing that this didn’t work out in the end. We are in the process of sending out the refunds,” Bitget Wallet chief operating officer Alvin Kan said on X. 

“Yes, we have hit a setback, and trust in the industry has taken a blow, but we’ll come out of this stronger,” he added. 

Magazine: Does ‘Paper Bitcoin’ mean there’s an unlimited supply of BTC?

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