Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has endorsed Predict.fun’s strategic acquisition of Probable.

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng has publicly welcomed a tie-up in the BNB (BNB) Chain prediction market segment, after Predict.fun said it would acquire on-chain platform Probable in a strategic deal. In a social media post commenting on the announcement, Zhao congratulated both teams and said he was pleased to see “two strong projects joining forces,” framing the move as a positive consolidation of liquidity and talent. Probable, which had been incubated by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs, will now be integrated into the Predict.fun stack, bringing its experience in market design and on-chain execution under a single brand. For users, the merger is expected to reduce fragmentation across similar products on BNB Chain, while giving Predict.fun access to a broader base of traders and liquidity providers.

According to the projects, the acquisition will be used to accelerate upgrades to Predict.fun’s market architecture, including how odds are quoted, orders are matched, and capital is reused across multiple markets. Prediction protocols typically rely on careful incentive design and risk controls to ensure that liquidity is deep enough for larger trades, without exposing liquidity providers to outsized drawdowns when events move quickly. By combining Probable’s technology with its own roadmap, Predict.fun aims to roll out more efficient routing of orders, better collateral management, and potentially new types of markets around crypto, macro, and sports. The move comes as on-chain prediction platforms see renewed attention from traders looking for transparent alternatives to centralized sites and from DeFi users seeking new yield sources.

Consolidation in on-chain prediction markets

Zhao’s endorsement highlights a broader consolidation trend among on-chain prediction projects as they compete for users in a crowded DeFi landscape. Smaller, standalone platforms often struggle with thin liquidity and high user-acquisition costs, making mergers and strategic acquisitions an attractive way to scale more quickly. By pooling technology and order flow, projects like Predict.fun and Probable can offer tighter spreads and higher maximum trade sizes, which are critical for attracting professional bettors and market makers. In turn, healthier liquidity can make markets more informative, giving participants better-implied probabilities around elections, macro events, and crypto-specific outcomes.

The deal also lands at a time when regulators are paying closer attention to prediction markets, including in the U.S., where agencies such as the CFTC are reviewing new rules and proposals. Projects operating on large networks must factor in how evolving frameworks like MiCA and existing securities and derivatives rules might apply to certain markets or payout structures. For Predict.fun, building a more robust, capital-efficient architecture could help it adapt to changing policy conditions while remaining competitive with centralized and off-chain venues. With high-profile figures like Zhao signaling support, the combined platform is positioning itself as a leading prediction hub on BNB Chain, betting that better execution and deeper liquidity will draw in the next wave of on-chain forecasters and liquidity providers.

Bitcoin’s “air pocket” is once again coming into focus as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose on Wednesday to just below $72,000.

The air pocket refers to a thin area of supply between $72,000 and $80,000, where relatively few coins last changed hands, according to data from Glassnode.

Roughly just 1% of the circulating bitcoin supply sits within this range. Because so few holders established positions there, the market may encounter limited resistance if prices begin moving through the zone. In practical terms, that means if bitcoin pushes decisively above $72,000, the move toward $80,000 could occur relatively quickly.

Historically, bitcoin has spent very little time trading in $72,000 to $80,000 region. One instance came in November 2024, when prices surged rapidly after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory, quickly moving through the range without forming much trading volume.

A second example occurred earlier this year, when bitcoin fell from around $80,000 to $70,000 at the end of January, before sliding further to roughly $60,000 by Feb. 6, a decline that unfolded over just a few days.

The supply dynamics are visible through Glassnode’s Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric. URPD shows the price levels at which the current set of unspent transaction outputs were last moved, effectively mapping where existing bitcoin holders acquired their coins.

CoinDesk Research notes that during bitcoin’s recent consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000, more than 400,000 BTC were accumulated, showing strong support below current levels.

Over the weekend, crypto markets acted as the first barometer of investor sentiment as geopolitical tensions around Iran intensified after U.S. and Israeli strikes. In the early hours of Saturday, a video posted by U.S. President Donald Trump announced new attacks against Iran, prompting an immediate reaction in digital assets. Bitcoin, the market’s bellwether, briefly traded near $63,000 before eking out a partial recovery as weekend liquidity moved through crypto-native venues. With traditional markets closed, traders leaned on perpetual futures and tokenized assets to express views on risk, inflation expectations, and macro uncertainty—demonstrating how 24/7 crypto trading is increasingly a real-time shock absorber for broader markets.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin briefly traded around the $63,000 level in the immediate aftermath of the announcements, before rebounding as sentiment evolved.
• Crypto markets served as a real-time gauge for macro shocks when traditional markets were closed, highlighting the primacy of continuous price discovery.
• Perpetual futures on both centralized and decentralized venues sustained liquidity, with tokenized assets and RWAs gaining traction as the weekend progressed.
• Hyperliquid maintained elevated trading volume over the weekend, suggesting sustained demand for cross-asset liquidity during geopolitical turmoil.
• Institutional interest in tokenized assets and crypto rails intensified, with XAUT and related prediction markets drawing notable activity amid the episode.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $IBIT, $XAUT

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative. Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $63,000 in response to the announcements and similar shocks in other assets, before stabilizing.

Market context: The weekend escalation reinforced crypto’s role as a near real-time risk indicator, with 24/7 liquidity enabling price discovery even when traditional markets pause. The episode also foreshadowed how institutional interest in tokenized assets and RWAs could accelerate the integration of crypto rails into mainstream finance.

Why it matters

The episode underscores a maturation trend in which digital assets function as live barometers of macro risk, not merely as speculative instruments. As geopolitical headlines circulated, Bitcoin and related crypto markets absorbed the information flow in real time, illustrating how traders leverage around-the-clock liquidity to calibrate risk exposure during shocks that unfold outside conventional trading hours.

Institutional interest in tokenization and RWAs is increasingly visible in market structure developments. Proposals and pilot programs around tokenized assets and cross-border liquidity access point to a future where crypto rails support a broader set of financial instruments, even as traditional venues test longer trading hours. In this context, players are evaluating whether extended hours and on-chain settlement can coexist with regulatory norms while maintaining risk controls that protect investors.

Additionally, the weekend episode highlights the growing relevance of alternatives to spot markets. Tokenized gold, such as XAUT, and cross-asset liquidity vehicles gained visibility as traders sought diversified exposure beyond conventional equities during a period of heightened uncertainty. The convergence of crypto, tokenization, and traditional asset proxies suggests a longer arc toward more integrated, cross-market risk management frameworks.

What to watch next

• Regulatory and market-infrastructure developments around 24/7 trading and tokenized assets, including updates on 23-hour trading proposals from Nasdaq.
• Further geopolitical developments and how BTC and other major assets respond in real time on perpetual futures and tokenized instruments.
• Tracking volume trends on platforms like Hyperliquid to see if weekend activity sustains beyond periods of stress.
• Monitoring tokenized assets such as XAUT and related RWAs for continued institutional uptake and pricing dynamics.

Sources & verification

• Public statements and video posts related to the weekend strikes, including the Truth Social post by Donald Trump announcing attacks on Iran.
• Bitcoin price movements around the $63,000 level as reported in crypto coverage documenting the weekend reaction.
• Bloomberg reporting on 24/7 crypto trading activity and Hyperliquid volume during the period.
• Cointelegraph reporting on tokenized assets like XAUT and on-chain/Ancedent market activity (e.g., Polymarket volumes) during the episode.
• Nasdaq’s and NYSE’s explorations of extended or 24/7 trading concepts, including the Nasdaq rulebook solicitation for near-24-hour trading and related market-structure discussions.

Bitcoin absorbs geopolitical shocks in real time

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) began the weekend on a sensitive footing after a video posted by President Donald Trump signaled U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. In the first hours after the announcement, the asset traded near the $63,000 area as participants recalibrated risk exposure and liquidity considerations in a market that never sleeps. The move underscored how geopolitical shocks are increasingly priced in real time on crypto platforms, where 24/7 trading creates a continuous feedback loop between news events and price action.

Analysts described the initial move as swift but contained, noting that Bitcoin did not break its broader market structure. “The initial weekend move to the downside was sharp but contained, and Bitcoin’s architecture held,” said Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT. “When it became clear that escalation risk appeared limited, price retraced and found footing.” The sentiment framing suggests a non-systemic risk event rather than a collapse in risk appetite.

Throughout the Saturday-to-Sunday window, traders shifted toward venues designed for constant liquidity, including perpetual futures that operate around the clock. With spot sessions quiet on traditional exchanges, crypto markets offered a live lens into risk appetite and inflation expectations as investors allocated capital across cross-asset plays and hedges.

Observers highlighted how uninterrupted trading both tests and strengthens price discovery. “Liquidity can thin during off-hours, potentially amplifying short-term moves, but the nonstop market accelerates price discovery and price adjustment,” noted Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch. That view aligns with the growing use of digital rails to price geopolitical risk in real time—especially as institutions explore tokenized instruments and RWAs that can trade outside standard hours.

Beyond the classic spot market, tokenized assets and cross-asset liquidity drew attention. Bitwise’s executives flagged rising demand in tokenized gold, including XAUT (CRYPTO: XAUT), as traders moved to diversify via tokenized reserves. Prediction markets also reported elevated volumes on platforms such as Polymarket during the episode, illustrating how markets blend crypto and traditional risk proxies when macro uncertainty spikes. These signals map onto a broader trend: more capital is testing crypto rails as a flexible, around-the-clock access point to risk exposure.

The shift toward tokenized assets dovetails with big-picture industry projections. McKinsey and Standard Chartered have argued tokenized assets could reach into the trillions of dollars by 2030, while Boston Consulting Group offers a similar long-run expansion forecast. Within that landscape, traditional venues are testing longer trading horizons, with Nasdaq pursuing a near 23-hour framework and the New York Stock Exchange exploring blockchain-enabled platforms as a bridge to on-chain finance. In this context, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (EXCHANGE: IBIT) has already positioned itself as a conventional-accessibility vehicle for investors seeking crypto exposure within familiar structures.

From a macro perspective, the episode reinforces Bitcoin’s emergence as a macro-asset sensitive to liquidity shifts and geopolitical risk. “Bitcoin has evolved into a macro asset, reacting not only to tech dynamics but to shifts in liquidity and policy expectations,” Kalchev said. The observation echoes a longer trend: crypto markets provide a continuous, cross-border price signal in an era of fragmented liquidity across traditional exchanges.

In parallel, data ripples from the broader crypto ecosystem underscored a persistent appetite for cross-asset liquidity. Hyperliquid, a perpetual-futures DEX, extended above-weekend volumes for commodities and traditional assets such as oil, at least for the period in focus. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan also noted a surge in tokenized-gold activity, while research and platforms tracking markets like Polymarket documented record engagement. Taken together, the weekend episode points to a convergence: tokenized assets and crypto rails are becoming more central to risk management across investors who traditionally rely on stocks, bonds, and commodities.

As more traditional players contemplate 24/7 or near-24/7 trading systems, the crypto world has already been operating with that tempo for years. The weekend episode shows that markets can digest news quickly when the information stream never pauses, potentially accelerating the integration of crypto into mainstream financial infrastructure while sharpening the debate over regulation, liquidity, and systemic risk across the global financial system.

Looking ahead, the weekend’s dynamics emphasize the importance of robust market data, trusted custody, and reliable on-chain settlement for institutional participants. If the trend toward wider adoption of tokenized assets continues, there will be increased demand for transparent price feeds, better risk management tools, and standardized benchmarks that help investors navigate the evolving landscape.

For traders, the episode reinforces a practical takeaway: in a world where news can ripple across asset classes in minutes, the speed of reaction matters as much as the direction of movement. The implication is that risk management in crypto now includes cross-asset hedges, liquidity-aware positioning, and a readiness to respond to geopolitical headlines as they break—anywhere, anytime.

Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $72,000 level as flows and positioning turn more supportive.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has climbed back to the $72,000 area after a volatile stretch marked by forced liquidations, ETF outflows, and macro-driven risk aversion. The move higher follows several sessions of gradual recovery from lows near $63,000, as net selling from long-term holders slowed and fresh capital re-entered via spot ETFs and large over-the-counter blocks.

On the derivatives side, funding rates that had flipped sharply negative during the drawdown have normalized toward neutral, suggesting that aggressive short positioning is being unwound rather than extended. The rebound comes as broader risk markets remain choppy, indicating that bitcoin’s latest leg higher is being driven more by crypto-native flows and position reset dynamics than by a broad risk-on rally in equities.

Traders point to a combination of short-covering and structural demand from ETF buyers as key drivers of the latest push toward $72,000. After weeks of consolidation below key resistance levels, the reclaim of the $70,000–$72,000 band has forced some bears to buy back positions, adding fuel to the upside. At the same time, on-chain and fund data show continued interest from institutional allocators who are using dips to build or rebalance positions through regulated vehicles. This behavior contrasts with prior cycles, where sharp rebounds were often dominated by highly leveraged perpetual futures rather than spot-led flows. The current setup, with more of the move coming from cash market demand, is seen by some desks as a healthier backdrop even if volatility remains elevated.

Flows, leverage and next levels

Under the surface, market structure indicators still matter for judging whether the break toward $72,000 can sustain. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has increased from post-liquidation lows, but not yet to the extremes seen at previous local tops, which reduces the risk of an immediate, large-scale long squeeze. Funding across major venues is positive but contained, implying that traders are willing to pay a modest premium to stay long without crowding into highly leveraged bets. Options markets show a modest skew toward calls at higher strikes, with implied volatility elevated around upcoming macro data, reflecting a market that is optimistic but still hedging tail risks rather than abandoning protection altogether.

For investors and traders, the key focus now is whether bitcoin can hold above reclaimed support levels and convert the $70,000–$72,000 zone from resistance into a base for further advances. A clean break and sustained close above this area would open the door to tests of higher psychological levels flagged in recent research, while a failure could send the price back into the mid-$60,000s as momentum fades. Flows into spot ETFs, the behavior of large holders on-chain, and the pace of new leverage build-up will likely determine which scenario plays out. As regulatory frameworks such as MiCA advance and large platforms like Coinbase deepen their integration of bitcoin into mainstream investment products, market participants will be watching whether this latest move marks the start of a more durable leg higher or just another range expansion within an ongoing consolidation.

Crypto-related stocks opened the Wednesday U.S. session with sizable gains as bitcoin BTC$72,127.07 surged above $72,000 for the first time in almost a month.

Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) jumped above $200 to its strongest price since late January, up 12% in the first minutes of trading. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate bitcoin holder, advanced nearly 9% to a one-month high.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Robinhood (HOOD) and Ethereum treasury firm BitMine (BMNR) were up 6%-8%. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) climbed another 6%, now up over 70% in the week since its fourth-quarter earnings report.

Bitcoin miners, increasingly tied to the artificial intelligence data center buildout, also rebounded following the Tuesday selloff. Bitfarms (BITF), Hive (HIVE), Hut 8 (HUT) and IREN saw 6%-10% gains.

The broader U.S. equity market was also seeing gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each higher by about 1% in early action.

The strong early showing came as bitcoin jumped to $72,600 at the start of the U.S. session, its highest price since early February. Recently, it pared some of the gains and retreated to $71,500, still up roughly 5% over the past 24 hours.

The $70,000-$72,000 range, which capped previous rally attempts over the past month, is a crucial zone for bitcoin to overcome if this rally is to last.

Bitcoin’s outperformance over equities comes after crypto assets have massively underperformed any other asset class over the past two months, which could explain why it is now diverging, according to Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere. Another factor could be that, unlike stocks, digital assets are not tied to supply chains, energy costs, or other narratives that seem to be weighing on prices, he wrote in a note.

De Maere also argued that equities and crypto have become “substitute risk-assets.” With uncertainty slowing inflows into stocks, capital may be rotating into digital assets instead. “Uncertainty is slowing down inflows in equities, which creates opportunity for crypto, which is what we’re seeing now,” he said. Still, he cautioned that the outperformance may not last. “The situation is fluid,” and a chain reaction of longer tension resulting in higher energy prices, sticky inflation, which could lower the odds of another rate cut, would be negative for crypto.

For now, he expects volatility to persist until there is greater clarity.

• Dogecoin holds key support at $0.088, signalling a potential rebound.
• Technical indicators show bullish patterns and rising trader interest.
• Unlimited supply limits long-term gains despite short-term recovery signs.

Dogecoin has taken a noticeable hit in recent days, with prices dipping amid global uncertainty triggered by the Iran war.

The popular memecoin, which once soared to unprecedented highs, now trades around $0.092, down slightly from its recent weekly levels.

While the price dip is noticeable, technical indicators suggest that the digital asset may be finding its footing, ready for a comeback.

Technical signals point to recovery

Several technical indicators suggest that Dogecoin may be preparing for a rebound.

To start with, $0.088 has turned into a key support zone after holding firm multiple times over the past month.

As a result, this level appears to have attracted buying interest, preventing further downward pressure.

A double bottom pattern has also formed on shorter timeframes, signalling a potential reversal.

In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) shows a bullish divergence, suggesting that selling momentum may be waning.

Open interest in DOGE futures has also spiked, indicating heightened market participation and renewed investor attention.

These signs collectively point to a possible relief rally in the short term, even as the broader market remains cautious.

But despite the rebound signals, Dogecoin price faces a major hurdle near $0.10, a level it needs to surpass to confirm any upward momentum.

Should DOGE clear this barrier, it may test the next key resistance zones, but any significant rally will still contend with structural challenges like its infinite supply and lack of much real-world use cases.

Balancing speculation and fundamentals

While technical patterns are encouraging, Dogecoin’s fundamentals present a more cautious picture.

Its unlimited token supply continues to dilute value over time, making dramatic long-term price increases unlikely without substantial adoption.

Unlike other cryptocurrencies that benefit from scarcity, DOGE relies heavily on community support and speculative trading.

Its all-time high (ATH) of $0.73 recorded in 2021 remains far off, emphasising the challenges the coin faces.

Despite this, short-term momentum is undeniable, especially seeing that social interest in the coin has picked up over the past few days, coinciding with relief rallies in the past.

For now, while structural limitations and the uncertain macro environment suggest that investors should temper expectations, DOGE seems to be stabilising, offering cautious optimism for those tracking the memecoin closely.

Kraken Financial, the baking arm of U.S. centralized exchange Kraken, announced that it has a Federal Reserve master account, granting it direct access to the U.S. payment systems.

In a blog post published today, March 4, the firm said that the approval marks a major milestone for the integration of crypto and traditional financial rails. It also makes Kraken Financial the first crypto-focused bank to receive a master account from the U.S. central bank.

Kraken Financial is state regulated, holding a Special Purpose Depository Institution (SPDI) license in Wyoming, making it able to offer both digital asset custody and fiat deposit accounts. The Fed master account connects the bank directly to the central bank’s payment infrastructure, including Fedwire. The firm said it expects the move to make fiat transactions more efficient for its institutional clients.

Last month, Kraken announced that it will sponsor so-called “Trump Accounts” for every child born in Wyoming this year, via its banking arm. The parent company of the bank and the CEX, which is the second largest in the U.S. by daily trading volume, is registered in the state, which is generally known for its crypt-friendly legislation efforts.

Both Ripple and crypto-focused, federally chartered bank Anchorage Digital have applied for Fed master accounts last year, but have yet to receive them.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

As can be seen on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver is recovering after forming yesterday’s low below the $79 level. The price per ounce has already exceeded $86 today (+10% in less than 24 hours!).

Volatility in the silver market is being driven by fluctuations in the US dollar, as well as military action in the Middle East, which is fuelling concerns about a prolonged regional conflict. According to media reports:

→ Yesterday, Israel carried out a strike on a building where religious figures had gathered to elect a new Supreme Leader.

→ Following the death of Ali Khamenei, he was succeeded by his son Mojtaba Khamenei. Although some sources consider him the leading candidate (no official statements have yet been made), this has raised concerns that the new Iranian leadership may continue existing policies — increasing uncertainty over the outcome of the conflict.

On 20 February, when analysing the XAG/USD chart, we:

→ highlighted the importance of the $95 resistance level;
→ suggested that the price of silver could consolidate above the breakout level of the descending channel around $79 (shown in red), reinforced by the psychological $80 mark.

Indeed, our assumptions were reflected in the formation of a zigzag pattern, with a bearish reversal at the A peak and a bullish reversal at yesterday’s low B. Notably, these and other key extremes make it possible to outline the contours of an upward trajectory (shown in blue).

It is possible that the upward movement observed this morning will continue during the US trading session, allowing XAG/USD to reach the blue median line. Price action at that point may provide important clues — if the median does not show signs of resistance, this may be interpreted as an indication of further upside potential.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Police in Thailand have asked Interpol to issue a red notice against Benjamin Mauerberger, an alleged money launderer for a number of South Asian scam operations with links to the world’s once-fourth largest crypto exchange, KuCoin. 

Local media reports that Thailand’s Crime Suppression Division filed a request that, if approved, would see Interpol issue a global warrant for Mauerberger’s arrest. 

Thailand charged the South African businessman and his wife, Cattaliya Beevor, with investment fraud and money laundering last week. 

Courts accused the duo of conning investors out of 1 billion baht ($31.6 million) in 2016 through a series of fraudulent projects involving power plants, private jets, and real estate investments.

Mauerberger reportedly fled his base in Bangkok last September and is now residing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).