Is EZCORP, Inc. the hidden gem in today’s bullish market? With its stock soaring 100% from its local lows and a pawn empire spanning over 1,200 stores, this Austin-based powerhouse is catching investors’ eyes. But with a low P/E ratio and undervaluation against fixed-income yields, is now the time to jump in-or should you wait for a dip? Dive into our EZCORP stock forecast to uncover its true potential from 2025 to 2029.
EZCORP Inc. is a leading provider of pawn services in the United States and Latin America, headquartered in Austin, Texas. Founded in 1989, the company operates a network of pawn stores that offer secured, non-recourse loans (pawn loans) collateralized by tangible personal property such as jewelry, electronics, tools, and musical instruments
The company structures its operations into three segments:
- U.S. Pawn: Encompasses all pawn activities in the United States, primarily under the EZPAWN and Value Pawn & Jewelry brands.
- Latin America Pawn: Includes pawn operations in Mexico (Empeño Fácil, Cash Apoyo Efectivo) and other Latin American countries like Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras (GuatePrenda, MaxiEfectivo).
- Other Investments: Covers equity interests in entities like Cash Converters International Limited and investments in financial technology ventures.
As of recent data, EZCORP operates over 1,200 stores across its markets, with significant presence in the U.S. (approximately 500 stores) and Mexico (over 500 stores), alongside smaller operations in Central America.
EZCORP’s core business revolves around pawn services, which provide short-term cash solutions for individuals who pledge personal items as collateral. Customers can reclaim their items by repaying the loan plus interest, or EZCORP retains the collateral for resale if the loan defaults.
This model thrives on high-margin retail sales of forfeited goods, which include jewelry, consumer electronics, and other valuable items. The company also generates revenue from pawn service charges (interest on loans) and jewelry scrapping (selling precious metals from unsold items).
EZCORP has demonstrated solid financial performance in recent years, reflecting operational efficiency and market demand. For the trailing twelve months ending December 31, 2024, the company reported:
- Revenue: $1.18 billion, driven primarily by merchandise sales, followed by pawn service charges and jewelry scrapping.
- Net Income: $85.64 million, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14 (reported) or up to $1.57 (analyst estimates).
- Gross Margin: 58.82%, reflecting strong profitability in retail and loan services.
- Operating Margin: 10.02%, indicating effective cost management.
- Net Profit Margin: 7.25%, showing a healthy bottom line.
Key financial ratios highlight EZCORP’s stability and value:
- Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Approximately 9.87 to 10.41, suggesting the stock trades at a discount compared to the broader U.S. market (average ~17x).
- EV/EBITDA: Around 11.00, significantly below the peer group median, indicating potential undervaluation relative to competitors.
- Return on Equity (ROE): 10.71%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder capital.
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 5.33%, showing moderate returns on capital employed.
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.69, indicating a balanced capital structure with manageable leverage.
- Current Ratio: 2.91, demonstrating strong liquidity to cover short-term obligations.
- Altman Z-Score: 2.47, suggesting a low risk of financial distress.
- Piotroski F-Score: 7, indicating robust financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics.
Cash flow metrics further underscore EZCORP’s strength:
- Operating Cash Flow: $118.11 million.
- Free Cash Flow: $83.92 million after $34.19 million in capital expenditures.
- Net Cash Position: -$394.80 million (cash of $174.51 million offset by $569.30 million in debt), or -$7.19 per share.
In Q1 2025, EZCORP reported an EPS of $0.42, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.37, with sales up 9% year-over-year, beating expectations by ~2%.
EZCORP’s stock (NASDAQ: EZPW) has shown strong momentum:
- Current Price (as of April 4, 2025): $15.22.
- Market Capitalization: $837 million with 54.9 million shares outstanding.
- 52-Week Range: The stock reached a 52-week high recently, reflecting a +42.29% gain over the past year.
- Six-Month Performance: Outperformed the S&P 500 by +22.15% to +33.5%.
- Beta: 0.81, indicating lower volatility than the broader market.
- 200-Day Moving Average: Trading +15.57% to +21.48% above, signaling sustained upward momentum.
Analyst sentiment is positive, with a consensus price target of $17.17 (12.72% above current levels) and a “Strong Buy” rating. The stock’s low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, combined with consistent outperformance, classify it as a “Super Stock” by some metrics, balancing quality, value, and momentum.
However, short interest is notable at 8.37 million shares (15.24% of float), with a days-to-cover ratio of 17.2, suggesting bearish sentiment among some investors. Recent increases in short interest (+12.56%) contrast with positive news sentiment (score of 1.47 vs. finance sector average of 0.83).
EZCORP operates in the consumer finance and pawn industry, facing competition from both traditional pawn operators and alternative financial service providers. Key competitors include:
- FirstCash Holdings, Inc.: The largest U.S. pawn operator, with a broader footprint and similar pawn loan and retail offerings.
- Regional Management Corp.: Focuses on unsecured consumer loans, competing indirectly with EZCORP’s pawn services.
- Goeasy Ltd.: A Canadian firm offering leasing and lending, with parallels in serving subprime credit markets.
- Attain Finance and Momentum Financial Services Group: Smaller players in pawn and short-term lending, particularly in Latin America.
- Other Finance Companies: Firms like OppFi, Navient, PROG Holdings, and Oportun Financial provide unsecured loans or lease-to-own services, targeting similar customer demographics but with less emphasis on collateralized lending.
EZCORP’s pawn model offers a competitive edge due to its non-recourse nature, reducing credit risk compared to unsecured lenders. The company benefits from economic downturns, as demand for pawn loans rises when traditional credit tightens. Its expansion in Latin America, where pawn services are culturally entrenched, positions it well against regional competitors. However, competitors like FirstCash may outpace EZCORP in scale, while fintech lenders pose a threat by offering digital-first, unsecured loan products to tech-savvy customers.
We do not see significant upside potential in this company, despite its Investment Scoreboard rating approaching a positive 70%. This score suggests that the risk associated with investing in its shares has notably decreased. The stock’s beta ranges between 0.50 and 0.60, indicating lower volatility, while its PEG ratio stands at 1.00, reflecting fair valuation relative to growth. Additionally, the equity risk premium is below 3%, reinforcing the stock’s profile as a stable, steady-growth investment. As such, it could serve as a valuable addition to a portfolio for diversification and risk mitigation purposes.
However, the company’s performance warrants close monitoring. Over the past decade, it reported negative earnings per share (EPS) on two occasions and negative net profit three times. We are cautious about companies with a history of unprofitability. That said, recent improvements in operational and profitability metrics signal a potential turnaround.
If these trends continue-and there remains room for further progress-the pace of stock price appreciation could accelerate. For now, we do not expect the stock’s growth to outpace the broader market over the next year.
2025–2029 Price Targets:
As of this writing, the stock price has surged approximately 100% from its local low, following a decline from nearly $40 in mid-2011. This rally reflects the market’s recognition of the company’s growing potential, with prices now approaching an optimal valuation level. However, when assessed against fixed-income yield benchmarks, the company remains undervalued, suggesting room for further appreciation.
That said, purchasing shares during a bullish market phase may temper potential investment returns. This is a stock, however, where significant price corrections-particularly deeper or prolonged ones-could be elusive, requiring investors to wait patiently. Consequently, initiating a modest position at current levels may be prudent, with plans to increase exposure during any meaningful pullbacks.
EZCORP does not currently pay a dividend, focusing instead on reinvesting cash flows into growth initiatives like store expansion, acquisitions, and digital enhancements. Historical data indicates a dividend was last paid in 2000 ($0.01 per share quarterly), but the company has since prioritized capital allocation elsewhere.
Regarding share buybacks, EZCORP has not emphasized repurchasing shares recently, with no significant programs disclosed in the latest reports. The company appears to favor organic growth and strategic investments, such as the 2024 acquisition of AutoDinero, to bolster its pawn and financial services portfolio.
EZCORP, Inc. presents a compelling case for investors seeking stability and growth in the pawn industry. Despite its impressive 100% rally from recent lows, the stock remains undervalued relative to its peers, with a robust financial foundation and a low-beta profile ideal for diversification. While significant upside may be tempered in the near term, patient investors could capitalize on pullbacks to build positions, especially as operational improvements signal long-term potential. Keep EZCORP on your radar-its steady climb could reward those who time their entry wisely.
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*Investment analysis involves scrutinizing over 50 different criteria to assess a company's ability to generate shareholder value. This comprehensive approach includes tracking revenue, profit, equity dynamics, dividend payments, cash flow, debt and financial management, stock price trends, bankruptcy risk, F-Score, and more. These metrics are consolidated into a straightforward Investment Scoreboard, which effectively helps predict future stock price movements.
**Use the price forecast to manage the risk of your investments.
