TLDR:

• PiggyBank closed its LAB hedge after negative funding rates made the strategy too costly to maintain.
• The protocol expects NAV declines of 15% for USDC, 12% for SPYx, and 9% for JitoSOL.
• Locked LAB tokens valued at $1.35 million will remain excluded from NAV until the August unlock.
• ZachXBT criticized the trade and renewed concerns over LAB token supply concentration claims.

PiggyBank reported expected net asset value (NAV) drawdowns of up to 15% after unwinding a hedged position tied to the LAB token.

The protocol said it closed the hedge after extreme volatility, declining liquidity, and deeply negative funding rates made the strategy unsustainable.

According to a statement released by the team, the position originated from a basis trade executed last month. PiggyBank purchased locked LAB tokens through an over-the-counter transaction for approximately $100,000 while simultaneously shorting LAB perpetual futures contracts.

The protocol said the trade initially represented about 2% of portfolio assets and was designed to reduce directional market exposure.

However, changing market conditions increased the cost of maintaining the hedge and ultimately forced its closure.

PiggyBank said it will exclude its locked LAB holdings from NAV calculations until the first token unlock on August 14.

The team cited insufficient liquidity and said the approach represents the fairest method for managing user liquidity during the period.

Current NAV estimates indicate an approximate 15% decline for the USDC vault, a 12% decline for SPYx, and a 9% decline for JitoSOL. PiggyBank said it plans to publish a detailed report and follow-up handling plan next week.

Market Conditions Forced Closure of Hedged Position

PiggyBank said the strategy combined discounted purchases of locked LAB tokens with perpetual futures shorts. The structure aimed to capture value from the discount while limiting price risk.

The protocol said LAB later experienced severe market manipulation and worsening liquidity conditions. Trading conditions became increasingly difficult as liquidity in the token market deteriorated.

PiggyBank also reported deeply negative funding rates on LAB perpetual contracts. Those funding payments increased hedge maintenance costs and reduced the strategy’s effectiveness.

According to the team, maintaining the hedge became economically impractical under those conditions. The protocol ultimately chose to close the short position to limit additional downside exposure.

PiggyBank said the locked LAB position currently carries an estimated value of $1.35 million. Despite that valuation, the holdings will remain excluded from NAV calculations until the scheduled unlock.

The team said conditions surrounding the position remain subject to change. It added that excluding the holdings provides a transparent framework for current portfolio reporting.

NAV Declines Draw Scrutiny From Market Observers

The reported NAV reductions affected multiple PiggyBank products. The largest projected decline was recorded in the protocol’s USDC vault.

The losses also extended to SPYx and JitoSOL products. PiggyBank attributed those declines to the effects of unwinding the LAB-related hedge.

The protocol acknowledged what it described as a serious error in the basis trade. The statement outlined the circumstances that contributed to the outcome.

Meanwhile, on-chain investigator ZachXBT publicly criticized PiggyBank’s involvement with LAB. His comments focused on the protocol’s exposure to the token.

ZachXBT previously alleged that insiders controlled more than 95% of LAB’s supply. PiggyBank has not announced any changes to the August unlock schedule and said further details will be provided in its upcoming report.

TLDR:

• Total3 altcoin market cap sits near $670B–$680B, mirroring the 2022 bear market bottom structure. 
• Weekly RSI on Total3 is approaching 34.66, close to the oversold zone seen at the 2022 cycle floor. 
• Analysts project up to $1T in altcoin market cap expansion over the next two to three months. 
• Over 83% of Binance-listed assets trade below their 200-day moving average amid broad altcoin weakness.

The Total3 altcoin market cap is drawing attention from crypto analysts after its weekly chart began resembling the structure seen at the 2022 bear market bottom.

Currently sitting in the $670B–$680B range, Total3 tracks all crypto assets excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Analysts point to a familiar convergence of price compression and weakening sell-side momentum. The setup is raising questions about whether the altcoin cycle may be approaching a structural turning point.

RSI Compression Raises Early Recovery Signals

Total3’s weekly Relative Strength Index is approaching the same exhaustion zone that preceded the 2022 market floor.

The RSI on the weekly timeframe sits near 34.66, approaching but not yet at the oversold readings that accompanied the 2022–2023 bear market floor.

That level, while still below neutral, shows that selling pressure is losing its earlier intensity. Momentum is not collapsing the way it did during the sharpest legs of the previous downturn.

In the 2022 cycle, RSI spent weeks compressing inside a tight range before gradually reversing. Price did not immediately recover during that compression.

Instead, the market built a base quietly while the chart formed its floor. That same pattern of slow stabilization is what analysts are now observing across the Total3 weekly structure in 2026.

Crypto analyst account Our Crypto Talk noted on X that alts are “rhyming again,” pointing to how similar bottoms in 2022 preceded massive moves in assets like FET, KAS, SOL, TRAC, and ICP.

Those gains ranged from 300% to over 2,600% during the subsequent recovery phase. The post framed the current period as a possible dollar-cost averaging window before 2027.

Whether the compression reflects a structurally healthier altcoin market or simply an incomplete correction remains the central unresolved question. Still, the RSI trajectory alone is giving some traders reason to watch closely.

Price Structure and Altcoin Outlook for 2026

Beyond RSI, the price action on Total3 is forming a recognizable descending support structure. In 2022, that same trendline looked bearish for months before the market began building a base above it.

Once RSI turned upward from its low range, the next altcoin uptrend gradually took hold. A similar technical alignment is now visible on the 2026 weekly chart.

Nearly 83% of assets listed on Binance are currently trading below their 200-day moving average, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

That figure captures the broad scope of the ongoing altcoin weakness. However, Darkfost also noted that the most meaningful opportunities in past cycles emerged during periods of extreme pessimism rather than during widespread strength.

Our Crypto Talk projected that the next two to three months could bring roughly $1 trillion in altcoin market cap expansion.

The post stopped short of calling a traditional altseason, instead pointing to a more selective recovery tied to specific assets with strong chart setups. That distinction matters, as not every token moved equally during the 2022-to-2023 recovery.

The current drawdown, at 44.65%, is tracking at roughly half the severity of the 2021–2023 bear market, which erased 75.11% from Total3 before recovery began.

That comparison, while not definitive, adds context to the argument that the current cycle may be less extreme and potentially closer to its floor.

Michael Saylor may have offered a clue about Strategy’s (MSTR) next move after last week’s surprise bitcoin BTC$62,281.68 sale.

On Sunday, the company’s executive chairman posted the chart traditionally used to track Strategy’s bitcoin purchases on X, writing: “A good time to add more dots.”

Market observers have viewed such posts as a precursor to a new acquisition, although the company has yet to officially announce any transaction and will likely broadcast any action on Monday.

Strategy CEO Phong Le appeared to reinforce that message in a reply to Saylor’s post. “Our corporate @Strategy is to increase net Bitcoin and Bitcoin per share over time,” Le wrote. “Rumors otherwise are just rumors.”

The messages came after Strategy found itself under renewed scrutiny last week. The company disclosed last Monday that it had sold 32 bitcoin, worth roughly $2.5 million, its first sale since 2022. While immaterial relative to its more than 843,000-BTC treasury, the transaction sparked debate because investors have long viewed Strategy as one of bitcoin’s most consistent sources of demand.

Some market participants interpreted the BTC sale as a potential sign that Strategy could sell more of its bitcoin holdings to support dividend payments or shore up liquidity if market conditions deteriorate further. Those concerns have only grown as bitcoin slumped below $60,000 on Friday, its weakest level since October 2024.

Adding to the spotlight, SEC filings on Friday showed two senior executives’ plans to sell a combined $15 million worth of MSTR shares.

CEO Phong Le disclosed plans to sell roughly $11.1 million of stock, while CFO Andrew Kang filed to sell about $3.9 million. The transactions were tied to recently vested stock awards.

Bitcoin’s bear-market narrative remains unsettled as on-chain data shows realized losses in the 2026 downturn have yet to surpass the peak hit during 2022, even though the market’s dollar-denominated value sits higher. Analysts warn that a fresh phase of capitulation could still materialize before bulls find a durable bottom, highlighting a complex tug-of-war between stubborn retail conviction and displaced institutional selling.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s 2026 realized losses have not yet exceeded the 2022 peak of about $211 billion, despite a higher market cap in USD terms.
• Analysts suggest a new round of loss-making market exits may be needed to preserve historical bear-market patterns.
• Retail conviction remains notably high, even as macro catalysts push prices lower, complicating the conventional bear-market bottom story.
• Institutions have tended to sell into relief rallies, potentially delaying a capitulation-driven bottom and rebalancing supply-demand dynamics.
• The market may require several more months to determine whether 2023-style losses will be surpassed, signaling a clearer bottom formation.

Realized losses: a near-term signal with longer horizons

New data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicates that investor capitulation in the current bear market has not reached the severe levels observed in 2022. Realized losses are calculated when coins move on-chain at prices lower than their previous cost basis, a classic sign that investors are selling at a loss.

Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, summarized the situation by noting that, in USD terms, losses would be expected to rise as market capitalization grows during bear markets. As of October’s top, roughly $174 billion in losses have already been realized, according to the analyst’s estimates. This figure still trails the $211 billion record set in 2022, even though Bitcoin’s market cap is higher today in nominal terms.

The implication is subtle but meaningful: if losses continue to accumulate in USD as the market cap expands, the next phase of selling pressure could intensify and push prices toward a more definitive capitulation. Darkfost cautioned that while a purge could still occur, the interpretation remains subjective until more definitive loss realization surpasses prior cycle peaks.

Bitcoin bear market realized loss comparison. Source: Darkfost/X

Historically, bear-markets are marked by spikes in losses as investors liquidate positions to avoid deeper drawdowns. The current trajectory, with a higher market cap yet a still-below-peak loss tally, raises questions about whether the ultimate bottom will form sooner or later, and what that means for traders waiting on a definitive capitulation signal.

Retail conviction versus institutional behavior

Market chatter around BTC’s bottom formation continues to emphasize a striking dynamic: retail participants appear to be engaged in aggressive dip-buying, while larger players have shown a tendency to sell into relief rallies. Ardi, a well-known market observer, notes that retail traders have been “buying every dip” in a bid to catch a bottom that remains elusive, even as price trends betray a broader down cycle.

In contrast, institutions—whose participation typically lends more stability to price action—have been less inclined to hold onto relief rallies. Instead, larger investors are described as selling into bounces, exporting supply onto retail buyers who endure the market’s volatility. Ardi describes the present setup as a pattern where the least-capitalized participants absorb the supply from the most capitalized ones, which is not the typical behavior seen at major bottoms.

The upshot is a market where bullish sentiment among a broad base of retail traders complicates the bottoming process. If the demand from retail remains robust while institutions stay wary or liquidity-drained, price discovery could remain range-bound for longer, postponing a clear bottom and potentially extending the bear-market narrative beyond earlier expectations.

Ardi cautioned that persistent, high retail conviction may prevent a true capitulation from forming, a prerequisite many traders historically associate with durable bottoms. The interplay between demand from smaller traders and the exit of larger market participants will likely influence how soon and how sharply BTC can establish a firmer floor.

What to watch next in a market that’s still searching for a bottom

Looking ahead, several indicators will help gauge whether the bear-market phase is nearing a close or if the potential for further losses remains on the table. First, continued monitoring of realized losses across cycles can illuminate whether the 2022 peak remains the gold standard for capitulation or if new thresholds emerge as the market cap continues to grow. Second, the behavior gap between retail and institutions will be telling: a narrowing of this gap, or a shift in institutional sentiment toward accumulating during dips, could signal a more constructive turning point.

Market participants should also keep an eye on macro catalysts and on-chain flows that could alter supply dynamics—such as changes in mining economics, network efficiency improvements, or shifts in exchange reserve movements—that often accompany major turning points. While 2026 has already diverged from prior bear-market archetypes in terms of participation, the pace and direction of the next few months will help determine whether the bear’s endgame resembles past cycles or charts a new course.

For readers tracking the evolving BTC narrative, the next data releases and sentiment shifts will be crucial. If retail demand maintains its strength while institutions reluctantly reduce exposure, the balance of supply and demand may tilt in favor of a more decisive bottom formation—or at least a more reliable price floor—later in the year. Until then, observers should prepare for continued volatility as the market weighs whether the 2023 losses will be surpassed and what that implies for the trajectory of Bitcoin’s bear-market timeline.

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia (NVDA) continues to serve as the primary barometer for AI infrastructure investment and market confidence
• Broadcom (AVGO) confronts investor skepticism following a sharp decline despite delivering solid quarterly performance
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) experienced a post-earnings downturn even after boosting forecasts and revealing a stock split
• UnitedHealth (UNH) emerges as a preferred choice for investors seeking shelter in defensive healthcare positions
• Marvell (MRVL) experienced an AI-fueled rally before retreating, setting up a critical test in the coming sessions

Five companies—Nvidia, Broadcom, CrowdStrike, UnitedHealth, and Marvell—will command significant attention from investors during the upcoming trading week. These names represent crucial market narratives: the artificial intelligence revolution, cybersecurity expansion, healthcare stability, and evolving investor risk preferences.

Nvidia and Marvell at the Forefront of AI Momentum

Nvidia continues to hold its position as the market’s most influential equity. The stock serves as a proxy for AI infrastructure investment trends, with its price action offering insight into broader confidence levels surrounding the artificial intelligence sector. Despite a modest retreat from recent highs, Wall Street analysts maintain their bullish outlook on the company’s long-term prospects.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Marvell captured headlines recently following reports that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang hinted the semiconductor firm could eventually achieve a trillion-dollar market capitalization. The speculation triggered a substantial rally in shares. However, Marvell subsequently retreated in tandem with the broader chip sector, creating uncertainty as the new week approaches.

A swift return of buying interest in these two names would reinforce the durability of the AI investment thesis. Conversely, continued weakness might prompt questions about valuation levels and whether expectations have outpaced fundamentals.

Nvidia’s leadership position stems from its GPU dominance, advanced networking solutions, and expanding AI software ecosystem. Meanwhile, Marvell has gained prominence through its specialized AI chip designs and cloud infrastructure offerings, establishing itself as a frequently discussed Wall Street favorite.

Broadcom and CrowdStrike Face Market Scrutiny

Broadcom delivered impressive quarterly results but stumbled when its forward guidance failed to exceed lofty market expectations. Shares tumbled in response. The upcoming week will reveal whether investors view this correction as an attractive entry point or the beginning of broader pressure on AI-adjacent equities.

CrowdStrike similarly declined following its earnings release, despite posting robust numbers, elevating guidance, and announcing a stock split. The selloff reflected valuation anxieties rather than operational concerns.

Cybersecurity investment remains on an upward trajectory. Enterprises continue allocating larger budgets toward cloud security solutions, endpoint defense systems, and AI-enhanced threat monitoring capabilities. A rebound in CrowdStrike’s stock price would indicate revived investor enthusiasm for high-growth software companies.

Broadcom maintains strategic importance in the AI landscape through its custom silicon offerings and networking infrastructure products. A recovery in its shares could generate positive spillover effects throughout the semiconductor industry.

UnitedHealth Gains Traction as a Safe Haven

UnitedHealth has captured increased investor attention following a positive analyst rating revision. As technology stocks experience heightened volatility, capital is migrating toward healthcare as a more dependable sector.

UnitedHealth benefits from predictable revenue streams and a commanding market presence. These characteristics enhance its appeal during periods of market turbulence.

Market participants will monitor whether institutional capital continues shifting into healthcare equities. Should this trend persist, UnitedHealth could emerge as a reliable outperformer amid choppy market conditions.

Collectively, these five equities encapsulate Wall Street’s dominant investment themes: AI infrastructure buildout, cybersecurity market expansion, and the pursuit of stability when facing market uncertainty.

TLDR:

• Michael Saylor posted Strategy’s Bitcoin tracker, signaling a possible new BTC purchase soon.
• Similar posts by Saylor have often preceded official disclosures of additional Bitcoin buys.
• Strategy holds over 840,000 BTC and continues treating Bitcoin as a core treasury asset.
• Investors see potential accumulation as a positive signal amid recent weakness in market sentiment.

Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor signaled a potential new Bitcoin purchase after posting the company’s holdings chart on X. On June 7, Saylor shared the tracker and wrote, “A good time to add more dots.”

The post attracted market attention because Saylor has frequently shared similar updates before announcing new Bitcoin acquisitions. Strategy has subsequently disclosed additional purchases following several of those earlier posts.

The signal arrived days after reports emerged that Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins on June 1. The sale surprised market participants and coincided with a broader digital-asset market correction. Investors focused on the fact that Strategy had sold even a small portion of its holdings.

Some market participants now view Saylor’s latest message as a sign that additional purchases could follow. They expect further accumulation by Strategy to support sentiment after recent market weakness.

Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. The company currently holds more than 840,000 Bitcoin and continues to treat the asset as a central treasury reserve.

Strategy Continues Accumulating Despite Market Volatility

Strategy’s holdings chart shows continued accumulation through periods of price volatility. The company added roughly 171,000 Bitcoin during the year, representing a 25% increase in holdings.

Source: Bitcoin Treasury

The chart indicates that Bitcoin’s market value experienced fluctuations during early 2026. However, Strategy’s total holdings continued rising throughout the same period. The pattern suggests that the company maintained purchases regardless of short-term price movements.

The company’s reported holdings reached 843,706 Bitcoin. The average acquisition cost stood near $75,702 per Bitcoin, while the total cost basis approached $63.8 billion.

The chart also showed a market net asset value ratio of approximately 0.66. That level indicates the company’s market valuation traded below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Market participants have cited concerns including execution risk, leveraged exposure, and continued capital raises. Those factors may contribute to investor caution despite ongoing accumulation.

Bitcoin Treasury Model Remains Central to Corporate Strategy

Strategy has built its corporate identity around Bitcoin accumulation. The company continues raising capital through debt and equity markets to fund additional purchases.

That approach increases the amount of Bitcoin held per share over time. It also strengthens Strategy’s role as a publicly traded vehicle for Bitcoin exposure.

Each purchase removes additional Bitcoin from the available market supply. The accumulation strategy has therefore attracted attention from both investors and market observers.

The model remains dependent on continued access to capital markets. Extended weakness in Bitcoin prices could create additional challenges for financing future acquisitions.

Even so, Saylor has consistently maintained support for Bitcoin as a core corporate asset. His latest post reinforced that position and renewed expectations of further purchases.

The development comes as retail participation appears to weaken while institutional accumulation continues. If Strategy proceeds with another acquisition, it would extend a buying pattern that has defined the company’s Bitcoin strategy for years.