The Bitcoin network is now more than halfway (50.01%) through its current halving cycle, with the next halving expected on April 12, 2028, just under two years away, according to mempool.space.

This cycle, known as “epoch 5”, which began in April 2024 and will continue through to 2028.

A halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, and reduces the reward miners receive by 50%.

This process controls bitcoin’s issuance and ensures a predictable decline in its inflation rate (currently under 1%). In the current epoch, the block subsidy is 3.125 BTC per block. With blocks mined on average every 10 minutes, around 450 BTC are issued daily.

This 10 minute schedule is maintained through difficulty adjustments, which occur every 2,016 blocks. The network increases or decreases mining difficulty depending on how quickly blocks are found, keeping issuance consistent.

With approximately 104,986 blocks remaining in this cycle, bitcoin’s supply continues its dependable path toward its fixed cap. Each new epoch further reduces issuance and its inflation rate, reinforcing its long term scarcity.
Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21,000,000 coins, one of its main characteristics which underpins its scarcity. Recently, the network reached a major milestone as the 20 millionth bitcoin was mined, meaning the final million will take another 114 years to mine.

Bitcoin post-halving gains lag prior cycles

Bitcoin is up around 15% since the April 2024 halving, rising from roughly $64,000 to just under $75,000. Previously reached an all time high of around $126,000 in October 2025 before falling roughly 50% to $60,000 in early February.
However, it has underperformed previous cycles over the same post-halving period, continuing the trend of diminishing returns, according to Glassnode data.

This is largely expected as bitcoin matures, with greater adoption and a larger market cap requiring more capital to drive outsized gains. As a result, volatility is declining each cycle and price action is becoming more gradual compared to earlier cycles.

The Stripe-backed Tempo blockchain gained a pair of heavyweight validators in Visa (V) and Zodia Custody, the crypto custodian majority owned by Standard Chartered (STAN).

Alongside Stripe, Visa and Zodia will participate in the Tempo blockchain by maintaining network security and verifying transactions.

Visa, a long-time collaborator of the payments services provider, configured and managed the validator node entirely in-house, following six months of joint work with Tempo’s engineering team to integrate the card giant’s infrastructure directly into the blockchain, according to a press release.

Visa plans to run nodes on some other blockchains following the Tempo integration. The card network had previously said it will join the Canton Network, where there are plans to serve as a “Super Validator.”

For the past seven years or so, Visa’s blockchain engineers have been “living and breathing stablecoins,” said the head of Visa’s crypto team, Cuy Sheffield. Now the focus is on supporting the evolution of new payment flows such as machine-to-machine commerce using AI agents, he added.

“We’ve been an early design partner, working very closely with the Tempo team, looking at designing infrastructure that can support many types of new payment flows, and particularly agentic payment flows,” Sheffield said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Tempo, which is also backed by crypto investment firm Paradigm, went live last month with Machine Payments Protocol (MPP), a protocol that lets software and AI agents pay for services autonomously.

“Visa is a big part of MPP,” Sheffield said. “We added the MPP card spec. We announced Visa CLI, which is a wallet that is built on top of MPP where agents can use a Visa card to be able to spend. So we’ve been deeply involved in the Tempo and the MPP ecosystem, and now we’re running the underlying infrastructure on Tempo.”

There’s no doubting Stripe’s conviction when it comes to assembling an end-to-end blockchain-based system for stablecoin payments. But, taking a step back, some people might question how open and decentralized such a system is.

Sheffield, in response, said Visa is simply being pragmatic, looking for products that can drive payment volume.

“Our view has always been that decentralization is a spectrum,” Sheffield said. “There are many use cases where decentralization for the sake of decentralization doesn’t solve a problem. I think we’re now entering a phase in the crypto industry where decentralization is not the primary value prop. It’s whether a new payment infrastructure is fast, efficient, programmable and can outperform some existing payment infrastructure for certain use cases.”

Stripe moved into the stablecoin industry when it acquired stablecoin specialist Bridge for $1.1 billion in 2024. Earlier this year, Mastercard made a similar move, buying stablecoin firm BVNK for $1.8 billion.

Asked if Visa had any plans to offer its own stablecoin, Sheffield said:

“It’s so early and the rules haven’t even been fully written yet. We spent a bunch of time with the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) and others,” he said. “I think there are many different roles that Visa can play, but everything we do, we want to make sure that we’re doing it in partnership with our clients and our network.”

UPDATE (April 14, 14:16 UTC): Rewrites headline, first paragraph to include reference to Zodia Custody.

Bitcoin extended its latest bounce, surging about 5% on Tuesday to a fresh intraday high near $76,120 as traders weigh a renewed bullish setup and stronger on-chain activity. The move rekindles expectations of a broader rally, with market participants eyeing higher targets if momentum persists and key resistance zones are cleared.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin punched to an intraday high around $76,120, reclaiming earlier resistance and signaling renewed upside momentum.
• Analysts see a potential breakout above an ascending triangle pattern, with the next major hurdle near $80,000 and a measured target around $89,050.
• On-chain activity supports the price move: daily transaction count rose sharply in 2026, reaching 765,130 million as of April 5, a level last seen in November 2024 when BTC briefly topped $100,000.
• Network activity is corroborated by higher fee revenue, with total on-chain fees up about 4% week over week to roughly $153,700, suggesting greater willingness to pay for priority processing.

Price action and the chart setup

Trading data shows Bitcoin breaking above the upper boundary of its latest consolidation, with Tuesday’s rally pushing the price above $76,000—levels not seen since early February. Analysts described the move as a breakout that validates renewed bullish momentum, noting that a decisive close above the $75,000 to $76,000 zone would confirm the breakout and widen the path toward higher targets.

“Bitcoin surged above the $76,000 level, breaking above its March highs and signaling renewed bullish momentum,”

Skeptics and optimists alike are watching the same crucial points: a sustained close above the moving averages near $75,000 and a daily close beyond the resistance front near $80,000. If these thresholds are crossed, traders anticipate a continued push toward the measured target implied by the formation—roughly $89,050—which would mark a meaningful shift in the short-term trajectory.

Technical commentary also highlights the pattern at play: Bitcoin appears to be validating an ascending triangle after breaking above the upper trend line around $73,000 earlier in the week. A close above the confluence of the trend line and the 100-day moving average would bolster confidence in a bullish breakout, while a failure to sustain above $75,000 could reintroduce volatility and test lower supports.

As observers map the road ahead, one analyst emphasized that breaking above the pattern and the 100MA would indicate a genuine shift in momentum, potentially accelerating a move toward the $84,000 area and higher. The discussion underscores how chart structure, not just price level, is shaping expectations for the near term.

On-chain activity corroborates the price move

Price strength is aligning with rising on-chain usage. Bitcoin’s daily transaction count has surged in 2026, reaching about 765,130 million as of April 5, according to CryptoQuant data cited in market briefings. This level marks a multi-month high and echoes earlier bursts of network activity that accompanied major price moves.

That activity level was last observed during a period in November 2024 when Bitcoin briefly traded into the six-figure territory, approximating a macro moment when speculative fervor and investor interest peaked. An analyst known on social channels noted that the current transaction count is higher than during some earlier high-price eras, suggesting sustained network engagement rather than a fleeting spike.

The on-chain signal is complemented by commentary from observers who point to the broader implications of rising usage: increased transaction counts can reflect a growing number of market participants, higher merchant adoption, or greater trader activity seeking to execute orders with priority. In this context, the 2026 uptick in activity helps explain why the market is not only chasing higher prices but also experiencing more active on-chain participation.

“The network is showing bull market behavior,”

That sentiment came from a Twitter analyst who highlighted the robust on-chain activity as a meaningful backdrop to price action. While the precise drivers behind the surge remain multifaceted, the association between rising transaction counts and bullish momentum is a recurring theme in recent market cycles.

Fees rise as demand for on-chain priority grows

Beyond transaction counts, Fee activity also rolled higher. Glassnode’s Market Pulse observed that Bitcoin’s total on-chain fee volume increased about 4% over the prior week, reaching roughly $153,700. The uptick in fees is interpreted as heightened willingness among users to pay for priority processing, signaling sustained or expanding network demand even as price moves unfold.

From a market perspective, rising fees can reflect a mix of transaction acceleration by traders attempting to front-run or secure confirmations in a volatile environment, and real-world use cases driving higher activity. While fees alone do not determine price direction, they provide a complementary read on how busy the network is and how users are prioritizing their transactions in this phase of renewed activity.

What this means for traders and investors

The combination of a renewed price breakout, a believable chart pattern, and stronger on-chain signals paints a cohesive picture of renewed appetite among market participants. For traders, the key inflection point remains the daily close above critical resistance—roughly $75,000–$76,000—and confirmation of the ascending triangle’s breakout with a follow-through beyond the next hurdle near $80,000. If these thresholds hold, the measured move toward the mid-to-upper $80,000s—and potentially toward $89,050—becomes more credible.

Investors will also be watching whether the surge in on-chain activity and rising fee volume persists, as it can indicate longer-term engagement rather than a purely speculative sprint. The last time the network showed similar on-chain vigor was during prior price cycles when BTC breached notable price milestones, which adds a layer of historical context to the current setup.

Nevertheless, uncertainties remain. The macro landscape—regulatory developments, policy shifts, and broader market conditions—will always color Bitcoin’s trajectory. A decisive close above resistance levels, followed by sustained momentum, would strengthen the case for a continued advance; a retreat or muted follow-through could prompt a reversion to nearer support around the $75,000 mark.

For readers watching the next chapters, the immediate priority is confirmation: a daily close above the $76,000 zone and a sustained push beyond $80,000 would provide a clearer path toward the higher targets implied by the chart pattern and the improving on-chain backdrop. Until then, the market remains in a wait-and-watch phase, balancing chart psychology with real-time network activity.

Key takeaways:

• The US Federal Reserve’s shift toward balance sheet expansion may provide the liquidity needed to boost Bitcoin and broader risk markets.

• The war in Iran and high oil prices might be driving investors toward scarce assets to hedge against rising inflation.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) price surpassed $76,000 for the first time in over two months, triggering $285 million in leveraged short liquidations. The rally closely tracked the S&P 500, indicating a high probability of a macroeconomic-driven event. Is the war in Iran the only factor behind Bitcoin’s price gains, and what are the odds of a bull trap?

Crude oil prices stabilized near $95 after peaking at $104 over the weekend, a move many traders view as positive. The inverted chart of crude oil prices depicts a high-intraday-correlation environment.

The war in Iran has been a major source of concern due to its impact on US inflation and supply chain logistics, which limits the ability of global central banks to trim interest rates and exerts negative pressure on economic growth. 

Simultaneously, gains in the S&P 500 and gold prices likely indicate a higher probability of stimulus measures, causing investors to seek shelter in scarce assets.

The recent gains in the S&P 500 following failed negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may seem odd, but the added risk of recession provides the strongest incentive for governments to implement expansionary measures. Regardless of whether the US Federal Reserve opts for a cautious approach, the US Congress and the Trump administration can authorize direct investment in infrastructure projects and social programs, or provide tax credits.

Inflationary worries line up with investors’ Fed policy expectations

Bitcoin does not need to compete with stocks or even gold to capture the capital currently held in money market funds and short-term bonds. The longer oil prices remain above $90, the higher the upward pressure on forward inflation.

Reduced expected returns on fixed-income assets may be the primary catalyst behind Bitcoin’s surge above $75,000, and governments have few alternatives without expanding the monetary base.

The US Fed changed its strategy to expand the balance sheet in January, reversing the trend from the previous two years. This move is highly supportive of risk markets, as short-term concerns about the bond market are diminishing. Financial institutions and hedge funds have greater access to liquidity and face less competition to offload US Treasuries, providing temporary relief to the stock market.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin holds above $75,000, there are few incentives for traders to take profits after two months of trading near $68,000, given the meager 10% gains. Even if Bitcoin eventually rallies to $80,000, that would represent a modest 20% gain for those who purchased at $66,500. Unless traders perceive an imminent risk to oil prices, the odds do not favor continued sell pressure on Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin’s struggle to build long-lasting uptrend continues–Here’s why

Ultimately, given the likelihood of expansionary monetary policy and inflationary pressures, Bitcoin bears will have a difficult time showing strength, making the odds of a successful bull trap extremely low.