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Gemini stock gains 6% after-hours on Q4 earnings

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Crypto Breaking News

Gemini pushed through a better-than-expected fourth quarter even as the broader crypto market remained under pressure. The exchange reported revenue of $60.3 million for Q4, up 39% from a year earlier and ahead of consensus estimates of about $51.7 million. However, the company also posted a net loss of $140.8 million for the quarter, widening from a $27 million loss in the same period a year ago. For the full year, Gemini’s loss totaled $585 million in 2025, compared with $156.6 million in 2024. The results come after the platform went public in September and amid a late-2025 crypto drawdown that saw Bitcoin slide from its peak above $126,000 in October.

Shares of Gemini initially moved higher in after-hours trading, climbing as much as 14% to a high of $6.83 before settling around $6.36, for a gain of roughly 6% on the session. The day’s action mirrored the market’s mixed reception to a growth-focused quarter that delivered a revenue win but did not escape the ongoing profitability challenge for many crypto incumbents.

Key takeaways

  • Gemini’s Q4 revenue of $60.3 million rose 39% year over year and beat estimates of about $51.7 million, signaling business momentum even as trading volumes cooled.
  • The quarter produced a net loss of $140.8 million, deepening from a $27 million loss a year earlier; the company’s 2025 loss reached $585 million, higher than 2024’s $156.6 million.
  • Management cited deliberate fee-structure optimization and other efficiency measures as drivers of revenue growth, even with a softer trading environment.
  • Gemini is accelerating a strategic shift toward a markets-focused organization, highlighted by the launch of Gemini Predictions across all 50 states and a plan to leverage that infrastructure for perpetual futures once approved in the U.S.

Strategic ambitions sharpen as cost discipline takes center stage

In a February update, Gemini said it was trimming its workforce by roughly 30% since the start of 2026, citing challenging market conditions. The leadership framing this downsizing as part of a broader pivot toward a more AI-driven, efficiency-first operating model. Co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss highlighted a rapid integration of artificial intelligence into the development process, noting that AI is now used in more than 40% of production code changes and is expected to rise significantly in the near term. “Not using AI at Gemini will soon be the equivalent of showing up to work with a typewriter instead of a laptop,” they wrote in a shareholder letter.

The Winklevoss duo signaled a clear pivot toward a U.S.-centric growth strategy, underscoring optimism about a pro-crypto regulatory environment in the United States. They stressed that 2026 would be about focusing and expanding in America, aligning with a broader investor interest in platforms that can scale within clearer regulatory boundaries.

From trading floors to markets infrastructure: Predictions and futures ambitions

Gemini has been building out its markets-oriented toolkit, most notably with Gemini Predictions. The platform rolled out its in-house prediction market across all 50 states in December, shortly after obtaining a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company described its longer-term plan as turning Gemini into a “markets company” anchored by predictions, with the potential to extend that framework to perpetual futures contracts once U.S. approval is secured.

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The December launch followed a prior line of coverage noting Gemini’s broader ambition to expand beyond traditional exchange functions into more complex financial primitives. As part of the 2026 roadmap, the company intends to refine and grow Predictions while simultaneously scaling its credit card program and exchange services, tapping into a more diversified revenue mix that could help weather ongoing volatility in crypto trading volumes. In evaluating the strategic path, investors will also be watching how regulatory feedback in the U.S. shapes the pace of approvals for new product categories, including perpetual futures.

These plans come against the backdrop of a February update that confirmed Gemini’s withdrawal from the U.K., the EU and Australia, a move the company attributed to tougher market conditions. The leadership’s stated aim is to “focus and double down on America,” a stance that aligns with the firm’s renewed investment in U.S.-based market infrastructure and its growing bets on a more favorable regulatory climate for crypto innovation.

The company’s quarterly results reflect a broader pattern among newer, publicly traded crypto platforms: revenue growth can outpace trading volumes due to fee-structure optimization, product diversification and active expansion into non-trading monetization streams. Gemini’s fourth-quarter performance—driven by its credit card program and pricing strategy—offers a data point suggesting that meaningful upside can still emerge even amid a subdued price cycle. The question for investors now is whether the path to profitability can be accelerated through AI-enabled efficiency gains and a clearer, U.S.-centered growth engine, supported by product bets in prediction markets and, potentially, regulated futures.

According to the company’s investor materials, the Q4 results marked the highest quarterly revenue in three years, reflecting the impact of the revised fee structure through the back half of 2025 and a push into more monetizable products. The combination of revenue resilience and continued investment in AI-driven scale positions Gemini as a case study in how crypto platforms seek to balance growth with cost discipline during a protracted market downturn.

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For investors and builders watching the sector, the key takeaway is that 2026 could hinge on how quickly Gemini translates its market infrastructure into sustainable profitability, the pace at which U.S. regulators greenlight broader product suites, and how effectively the firm scales non-trading revenue streams, like predictions markets and card programs, in a regulated environment.

Readers should keep an eye on next-quarter earnings and regulatory developments that could determine the speed at which Gemini completes its shift toward a broader markets-facing business model while continuing to nurture its consumer-facing products.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin price stalls at $70,000 as Asian tech stocks dip

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BTC/USDT daily price chart.

Bitcoin price marched back above $70,000 on Friday morning, erasing part of the losses seen over the past two days. However, its momentum quickly gave up as Asian tech stocks dropped lower.

Summary

  • Bitcoin rebounded above $70,000 after an 8% drop, supported by dip buying despite rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.
  • Risk sentiment weakened as Asian and U.S. tech stocks declined, reflecting broader pressure on risk assets amid strong inflation data and hawkish Fed outlook.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $250 million in outflows in two days, signaling a pause in institutional demand after a week of strong inflows.

After dropping over 8% to a weekly low of $69,298 on Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) price rebounded back above the $70,000 psychological mark that many analysts say acts as a crucial anchor for investor confidence. The bellwether was trading at $70,749 at press time with a market capitalization of $1.41 trillion.

BTC/USDT daily price chart.
BTC/USDT daily price chart — March 20 | Source: crypto.news

Bitcoin price rallied as bulls bought the dip under $70,000, which occurred after news of an Israeli attack on Iranian energy sources broke out, sparking fears of rampant global inflation as oil prices rose to record highs. 

At the same time, risk sentiment deteriorated amid a string of weak economic data. This coincided with stronger-than-expected PPI data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggesting the central bank intends to hold interest rates steady as long as inflation remains elevated.

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While Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $70,000 psychological support level, several hurdles could potentially stand in its path for more gains.

First, Asian tech stocks have so far traded down on Friday morning. Notably, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1,866 points or 3.38%, while China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.50%. Yesterday, U.S. tech stock markets also showed the same weakness, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing lower by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down over 0.25% each. The only exception was the Russell 2000 Index, which rose by 0.65%. 

Cryptocurrencies often mirror the trend followed by these tech stocks, as they both share a high sensitivity to liquidity and interest rate expectations.

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Second, investors seem to be rotating to Gold, which jumped over 2% today as it moved back above $4,700, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset amid the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Silver also saw significant interest, rising over 3% to $74.

Third, institutional demand in Bitcoin appears to have taken a breather. Data from SoSoValue show that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the past two days, with over $250 million flowing out.

While the outflows are relatively small considering the $1.16 billion in inflows they recorded over seven straight days just ahead of this shift, investors could take this as a sign of temporary exhaustion in the current rally.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Gemini sued by investors over alleged IPO misstatements and strategy pivot

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Gemini sued by investors over alleged IPO misstatements and strategy pivot

Gemini shareholders have targeted the crypto exchange through a new class action lawsuit alleging that it misled investors during and after its initial public offering.

Summary

  • Gemini has been hit with a class action lawsuit in New York alleging it misled investors in its IPO filings about its business strategy.
  • Plaintiffs claim the firm shifted to a prediction markets model, cut 25% of staff, and exited key international markets shortly after listing.
  • Shares have fallen sharply since the IPO, with investors alleging losses tied to what they describe as artificially inflated prices.

Filed in New York, the class action lawsuit has been brought against Gemini, its co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, and other company executives over misleading claims made in its IPO documents.

Plaintiffs in the filing said the documents portrayed Gemini as a growing crypto exchange focused on expanding its user base and international footprint, but later made an “abrupt corporate pivot to a prediction market-centric business model.”

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In the complaint, the plaintiff said the Offering Documents were “materially false and misleading” and failed to disclose that Gemini was “poised for an expensive and disruptive restructuring.”

Further, the lawsuit stated that the company had committed to extending into “key global markets.”

Gemini held its IPO in September and priced shares at $28 on the Nasdaq; however, while the filings described the exchange as its “core product,” they subsequently pivoted to prediction markets called “Gemini 2.0.”

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Subsequently, the firm also cut 25% of its workforce and exited several international markets like the UK, the EU, and Australia.

Per the complaint, such changes have caused the class group to suffer “significant losses and damages” as the stock price declined.

As such, the suit is seeking a jury trial and compensation for investors who bought shares at “artificially inflated prices” after the IPO.

Last month, several Gemini executives announced departures amid the company’s cost-cutting push; meanwhile, the exchange also shut down its NFT arm, Nifty Gateway, in February.

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However, on Thursday, the company’s Q4 results showcased that the company’s revenue had risen 39%, which was beyond analyst expectations.

At the time of writing, Gemini shares had closed Thursday’s session up 0.81%, while it surged another 5.8% in after-market trading.

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Super Micro Co-Founder Arrested Over Alleged $2.5B Nvidia AI Server Smuggling Scheme

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • DOJ charges allege $2.5B in Nvidia-powered AI servers were diverted to China through covert routes.
  • Prosecutors claim fake documents and dummy servers were used to bypass U.S. export compliance checks.
  • Over $510M in restricted AI systems allegedly shipped within weeks through a Southeast Asia network.
  • SMCI stock fell after hours as legal risks emerged around export controls and the distribution of AI hardware.

Authorities in the United States have arrested Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw for allegedly conspiring to unlawfully export AI servers. Prosecutors claim the operation diverted billions of dollars’ worth of advanced systems to China.

The charges follow an indictment unsealed by the U.S. Department of Justice, detailing a coordinated effort to bypass export restrictions.

Allegations of Export Control Violations

The indictment alleges that Liaw, a co-founder of Super Micro Computer, conspired with associates to ship restricted AI servers abroad.

These systems reportedly integrated high-performance GPUs developed by NVIDIA. U.S. authorities classify such hardware as sensitive due to its advanced computing capabilities.

According to court filings, Liaw worked alongside Ruei-Tsang “Steven” Chang and Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun to facilitate the operation.

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Prosecutors allege the group used an intermediary company in Southeast Asia to mask the final destination of shipments.

In an official statement, Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg described the alleged conduct in detail. He said the indictment outlines efforts to evade export laws through “false documents, staged dummy servers to mislead inspectors, and convoluted transshipment schemes.”

Eisenberg added that the technology involved carries national importance. He noted that these chips represent American innovation and said authorities will continue enforcing export controls to protect that advantage.

Use of Shell Companies and Concealment Methods

Investigators allege that the defendants relied on a layered logistics structure to move the servers. Systems were assembled in the United States, routed through Taiwan, and then delivered to Southeast Asia before reaching China.

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Authorities state that the intermediary company purchased approximately $2.5 billion worth of servers between 2024 and 2025.

A surge in shipments occurred within a short period, including roughly $510 million worth of equipment moved in just three weeks.

Officials say the defendants used deception to bypass compliance checks. Thousands of non-functional servers were staged at warehouses to simulate legitimate inventory during inspections. These replicas were presented to auditors reviewing export compliance.

Describing the scheme, FBI Assistant Director Roman Rozhavsky said the defendants allegedly conspired to sell “billions of dollars’ worth of servers integrating sensitive, controlled graphic processing units” in violation of U.S. laws.

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Legal Charges and Enforcement Response

Liaw and Sun were arrested and are expected to appear in federal court in California. Chang remains a fugitive. The charges include conspiracy to violate export control laws, smuggling, and conspiracy to defraud the United States.

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton addressed the case, stating that the defendants allegedly operated through “a tangled web of lies, obfuscation, and concealment” to generate revenue. He added that such diversion schemes pose a direct threat to national security.

Federal investigators emphasized the broader enforcement effort tied to the case. According to FBI officials, safeguarding advanced AI technology remains a priority due to its strategic importance.

Following the announcement, shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) declined in after-hours trading. Authorities reiterated that the charges remain allegations, and all defendants are presumed innocent unless proven guilty in court.

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Not All Wallets Equally Vulnerable to Quantum Risk: Galaxy

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Not All Wallets Equally Vulnerable to Quantum Risk: Galaxy

The quantum risk to Bitcoin investors is real, but not all wallets are vulnerable, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it, says Galaxy Digital research analyst Will Owens.

Owens said in a report on Thursday that, in theory, a quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys, allowing an attacker to impersonate the owner, forge a signature and steal coins. 

However, he argued that not all wallets are equally vulnerable to this risk.

“In fact, most wallets are not vulnerable today. Funds are at risk only when public keys are exposed on-chain,” he said.

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Owens said that created two main ways wallets are exposed: those whose public keys are already visible, and wallets whose public keys are revealed at the time of spending.

Source: Alex Thorn 

The threat of quantum computing to crypto has long been debated among the community as an upcoming inflection point. Advanced computers capable of breaking encryption have been theorized as able to reveal user keys, expose sensitive data and steal user funds.

The right people are on top of the issue

Critics argue the threat posed by quantum computers is overblown because the technology is still decades away from being viable, and banking giants and other traditional targets will be cracked long before Bitcoin.

Owens said there is also online discourse that Bitcoin Core developers are “ignoring and gatekeeping” quantum-related proposals, such as the soft fork BIP 360, but he claims to have found otherwise, noting that the “pace of proposals has accelerated meaningfully since late 2025.”

“Contrary to some public criticism, our review found substantial developer work addressing the question of quantum vulnerabilities and mitigations,” he said.

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“The ecosystem now has a concrete and maturing set of proposals spanning the full problem surface. These proposals are not theoretical. They are being actively developed, reviewed, and debated by some of the most experienced contributors in the Bitcoin ecosystem.”

Other people in the space have also been presenting their solutions. Crypto OG Willy Woo suggested last November that a way to keep your Bitcoin (BTC) safe until there’s a solution to the quantum threat is to hold the coins in a SegWit wallet for around seven years. 

Related: Bitcoin could go sub-$50K if quantum isn’t solved by 2028: Capriole

Governance will still likely present a challenge

When the developer community does come up with a post-quantum solution, Owens said it will likely present a challenge because “Bitcoin has no CEO, no board, and no central authority that can mandate a software update.”

“But the nature of this particular threat — external, technical, and universal in its impact — aligns incentives in a way that past disputes over Bitcoin’s economic direction did not,” he said. “Every honest participant in the network, from miners to holders to exchanges, has a direct financial interest in the network’s continued security.”

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“For investors, the key takeaway is straightforward: the risk is real but recognized, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it.”

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