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Gold hits worst losing streak in 100 years as bitcoin outperforms as middle east conflict continues

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Gold hits worst losing streak in 100 years as bitcoin outperforms as middle east conflict continues

Gold is currently on its longest losing streak in over a century, its worst run since February 1920, lasting 10 consecutive days, according to Katie Greifeld, Bloomberg analyst.

The yellow metal has fallen as much as 27% from its January all time high, dropping to a low of $4,090, where it found support at its 200 day moving average, a widely watched technical level that often signals longer term trend strength.

However, it has rebounded by around 2% over the past 24 hours, likely signaling the end of the streak. Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict at the end of February, gold remains down roughly 12%.

Meanwhile, bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, is holding above $70,000, keeping the bitcoin to gold ratio just below 16 ounces. The ratio bottomed at around 12 ounces just before the Middle East conflict, meaning the ratio has risen roughly 30% from those lows, with bitcoin outperforming.

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Charlie Morris, chief investment officer at ByteTree, noted: “I remember the excitement when 1 BTC first surpassed one ounce of gold in March 2017. Since then, it has consistently built higher lows, reaching 2.7 oz in 2019, 3.4 oz during the 2020 pandemic crash, 9.1 oz after the FTX collapse, and 12.4 oz in February this year. Now, one BTC is worth 16 ounces of gold. With gold appearing exhausted, we could reasonably expect a new all time high above 40 ounces in the coming months or years.”

Historically, bitcoin has tended to lag gold in market cycles. Gold typically leads with an initial rally, then consolidates, allowing bitcoin to catch up and outperform.

While, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argues that bitcoin and gold are not inversely correlated, but rather largely uncorrelated.

He highlights that gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) have seen billions of dollars in outflows over the past week.

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In contrast, bitcoin ETFs have recorded around $2.5 billion in inflows this month, with only about $140 million in net outflows year to date, despite bitcoin being down roughly 20% over that period.

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Crypto World

LayerZero Says Kelp Setup Caused Exploit, as Aave Loss Questions Mount

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LayerZero Says Kelp Setup Caused Exploit, as Aave Loss Questions Mount

Interoperability protocol LayerZero claims that an inadequate setup tied to Kelp’s decentralized verifier network (DVN) enabled malicious actors to steal $290 million from Kelp DAO, adding that preliminary signs point to North Korea-linked threat actors.

An attacker drained about 116,500 Restaked ETH (rsETH), worth as much as $293 million at the time, from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered rsETH bridge on Saturday.

LayerZero said Monday that the exploit stemmed from a single point of failure in Kelp’s setup, which relied on a single LayerZero DVN as the only verified path, despite LayerZero previously advising them against this.

“LayerZero and other external parties previously communicated best practices around DVN diversification to KelpDAO. Despite these recommendations, KelpDAO chose to utilize a 1/1 DVN configuration.”

In practice, that meant Kelp relied on a single verification path for cross-chain messages rather than requiring multiple independent checks.

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The exploit quickly shifted attention from the technical cause to the question of who should absorb the losses, while the fallout spread into Aave, where the attacker used rsETH as collateral to borrow real liquidity.

Aave’s total value locked (TVL) had fallen by about $8.9 billion to $17.5 billion at the time of writing after the exploiter used the stolen funds to borrow on Aave, leaving about $195 million in “bad debt,” triggering withdrawals on the lending protocol.

Source: LayerZero

LayerZero said Kelp’s rsETH bridge relied solely on the LayerZero Labs DVN, and argued that the incident reflected an unsafe application configuration rather than a compromise of LayerZero itself. The company said it is now urging all applications using 1/1 DVN setups to migrate to multi-DVN configurations and will stop signing or attesting messages for apps that retain the single verifier design.

Losses spark blame fight after $290 million Kelp exploit

With no recovery or compensation plan yet announced, users and market observers spent Monday debating whether losses should sit with Kelp DAO, LayerZero, Aave or rsETH holders themselves.

Yishi Wang, founder and CEO of open-source hardware wallet OneKey, said that the best path forward was to negotiate with the hacker, offer a 10% to 15% bounty, and get the bulk of the funds back.

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“If negotiations fail, LayerZero’s ecosystem fund should foot the bulk of the bill—it’s got the deepest pockets and the most long-term skin in the game,” wrote the founder in a Monday X post, adding that Kelp DAO is “broke” and could make it up with tokens and future revenue, or consider selling the project.

Analytics platform DeFiLlama’s pseudonymous founder, 0xngmi, outlined three solutions, including the option to “socialize” losses among all users, “rug rsETH holders on L2s,” or try to return holder balances to a pre-hack snapshot, which would be “very hard to do,” he wrote in a Monday X post.

Source: 0xngmi

Cointelegraph reached out to Aave for comment, but had not received a response by publication.

Related: Hyperbridge attacker mints 1B bridged Polkadot tokens in $237K exploit

Exploit raises Aave liquidation risks

Investor concerns about the Kelp exploit have significantly reduced Ether (ETH) liquidity on Aave, the lending protocol’s core collateral asset.

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This low liquidity presents a “critical safety risk where liquidations of ETH collateral cannot take place while markets are at 100% utilization,” said MoneySupply, the pseudonymous head of strategy at Aave competitor lending protocol Spark, in a Saturday X post.

“With current illiquidity conditions on Aave, a 15-20% ETHUSD price drop could cause significant bad debt accumulation (on top of any potential issues attributable to the direct rsETH exploit),” he said.

Source: Monetsupply

Aave said it immediately froze all rsETH in Aave v3 and V4, preventing further damage. Aave’s own smart contracts were not exploited.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

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