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HBAR price risks a downward spiral as Hedera’s ecosystem woes persist

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HBAR price has rebounded in the past few days, moving from the year-to-date low of $0.0725 to the psychological level at $0.100.

Summary

  • The HBAR price has crashed by 67% from its 2025 high.
  • The network’s ecosystem growth has stalled.
  • Technical analysis suggests that the Hedera price has further downside in the near term.

Hedera (HBAR) remains well below last year’s high of $0.3025 and the November 2024 high of $0.4012.

The recent rebound followed Hedera’s addition of FedEx to its governance council. It joined other top companies like Tata Communications, Google, Mondelez, ServiceNow, and IBM. All these companies have historically pledged to use Hedera’s technology in their decentralized products.

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The risk, however, is that third-party data indicate that Hedera’s ecosystem is much smaller than those of newer crypto projects such as Monad, Plasma, Hyperliquid, and Provenance.

Hedera’s decentralized finance ecosystem has a total value locked of just $58 million, with most projects showing no activity. This is despite Hedera being capable of handling over 1,000 transactions per second and having much lower fees than other chains.

Hedera also has a negligible market share in the stablecoin industry, with its total supply down to $68 million from last year’s peak of over $300 million. The stablecoin supply across all chains has jumped to over $300 billion.

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Hedera has no market share in the booming Real-World Asset tokenization industry, which has accumulated over $24 billion in assets under management. Ethereum has the largest market share, with over $17 billion in assets, and is followed by other popular chains such as BNB, Solana, and XRP Ledger.

These metrics likely explain why the Canary HBAR ETF has struggled to attract assets. It has had no inflows since February 9, while its total assets have dropped to $51.3 million. Hedera’s futures open interest has also continued to fall over the past few months.

HBAR price technical analysis

hbar price
Hedera price chart | Source: crypto.news 

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the HBAR price has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months, moving from a high of $0.3026 in July to the current $0.1.

The coin remains below all moving averages and is stuck at the Ultimate Support level of the Murrey Math Lines tool. It is also below the Supertrend and the Ichimoku cloud indicators.

Therefore, the most likely Hedera price forecast is bearish, with the next key target being the year-to-date low of $0.0725. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the all-time low of $0.036.

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Crypto World

Bitwise files for prediction market-backed ETFs

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Why is crypto down? 6 key factors from Bitwise's Matt Hougan

Bitwise Asset Management has filed with regulators to launch a new line of exchange-traded funds tied to political prediction markets, marking its latest push into alternative investment products.

Summary

  • Bitwise has filed with regulators to launch a new line of ETFs focused on U.S. election outcomes.
  • The proposed funds would give investors regulated access to political prediction contracts through traditional brokerage accounts.
  • Approval is still pending, and regulators continue to review how these products fit within existing securities rules.

The filing was disclosed by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, who shared details on social media. According to the preliminary prospectus dated Feb. 17, the proposed funds would operate under the “PredictionShares” brand and remain subject to regulatory approval.

The document states that the offering is incomplete and that the securities cannot be sold until the registration statement becomes effective.

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Election-focused contracts at the core

The filings outline several proposed ETFs linked to U.S. political outcomes. These include separate funds tracking whether Democrats or Republicans win the 2028 presidential election, as well as products tied to control of the House and Senate in the 2026 mid-term elections.

Rather than investing in companies connected to prediction markets, the funds are designed to hold event-based contracts sourced from regulated trading venues. These contracts pay out based on specific real-world outcomes, such as election results.

Bitwise said PredictionShares will serve as a dedicated platform for clients seeking regulated exposure to prediction markets through traditional brokerage accounts. No launch date has been set, and approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has not yet been granted.

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Seyffart noted that similar filings have appeared in recent months and said more are likely to follow as interest in the sector grows.

Growing competition and market interest

Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, said prediction markets are expanding in both size and relevance, making them difficult for asset managers to ignore. He added that client demand played a key role in the decision to pursue the products.

Other firms have also moved into the space. Roundhill Investments previously filed for similar election-based ETFs, while GraniteShares has submitted competing proposals. None has yet received regulatory clearance.

With platforms like Polymarket reporting heavy trading volume during significant political events, prediction markets have drawn increased attention in recent election cycles. Supporters say these markets often reflect public opinion more quickly than traditional polls.

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Critics, like Vitalik Buterin, warn that they are extremely risky and can behave like speculative bets. Industry analysts caution that funds associated with particular outcomes could lose most of their value if forecasts prove to be wrong.

Additionally, regulators are examining how these products align with current derivatives and securities regulations.

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Trading Platform eToro Q4 Earnings Sends Stock Surging

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Trading Platform eToro Q4 Earnings Sends Stock Surging

Trading platform eToro jumped more than 20% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, with revenue coming mainly from its crypto services.

The company reported on Tuesday that its Q4 net income increased 16% from a year ago to $68.7 million, with earnings per share of 71 cents, compared with analyst expectations of 60 cents.

Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $3.87 billion, down 40% from the prior-year period, with crypto revenue accounting for the bulk of earnings at $3.59 billion.

The earnings beat bucked eToro’s main crypto rivals, Coinbase and Robinhood, whose Q4 earnings both missed expectations as their revenues took a hit amid a crypto market crash late last year.

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Meanwhile, eToro’s full-year 2025 revenue rose more than 9% from 2024 to $13.84 billion, while its net income jumped 12% year-on-year to $215.7 million. Its full-year crypto revenue was $13 billion, up nearly 7% from 2024.

Shares climb on Q4 beat, CEO says it will catch crypto wave

Shares in eToro (ETOR) ended trading on Tuesday up 20.4% to $33.07 on the company’s earnings beat, making it one of the best-performing crypto stocks for the day. The stock fell slightly after-hours to $33.

Shares in eToro were among the best-performing crypto stocks on Tuesday. Source: Google Finance

EToro CEO Yoni Assia said it is “a pivotal moment for financial services” as artificial intelligence and the increasing use of blockchain infrastructure are “reshaping how people invest and interact with markets.”

“EToro is uniquely positioned to capture this opportunity,” he said. “We are positioning eToro for a financial system that is increasingly moving on-chain. With our long-standing leadership in crypto and tokenization, we are well placed to help shape this transition.”

Related: Gemini post-IPO shakeup sees exit of three top executives

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Assia told investors on an earnings call that eToro was seeing some of its crypto-focused customers “suddenly trading commodities” for the first time.

“There’s somewhat of a convergence or a shift from crypto, which now has lower volatility, to now basically gold, silver, and other commodities that have higher volatility,” he said.