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Here’s why one analyst expects Solana (SOL) to rise twenty-fold from current depressed level

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Here's why one analyst expects Solana (SOL) to rise twenty-fold from current depressed level

Solana’s memecoin-driven reputation may soon give way to a deeper role in digital payments, according to a new report from Standard Chartered’s head of crypto research, Kendrick Geoffrey.

Given SOL’s recent plunge to the $100 level, Kendrick has cut his price forecast for SOL to $250 from $310 by the end of 2026. Kenrick, however, remains a bull, seeing a path to $2,000 by 2030, fueled by Solana’s growing role in stablecoin-based micropayments.

The bank describes Solana as moving beyond its “one-trick pony” image. In 2025, nearly half of Solana’s protocol fees came from memecoin trading on decentralized exchanges. But data now shows a shift in trading flows — from meme tokens to SOL-stablecoin pairs — suggesting that new uses are emerging. Stablecoin turnover on Solana now significantly outpaces Ethereum , pointing to a different kind of activity: high-frequency, low-cost transactions.

One example is x402, a platform created by Coinbase (COIN) to support micro-sized, AI-driven payments using stablecoins. The average transaction on x402 is just six cents. Base, Coinbase’s own Layer 2 network on Ethereum, has hosted most of the volume so far, but its fees may be too high for long-term viability. Solana’s lower gas fees — often less than a cent — make it better suited for such applications, Geoffrey said.

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Micropayments, often unviable in traditional finance due to fixed per-transaction fees, could unlock new types of internet services, from machine-to-machine payments to social apps with built-in pay-per-use features. Solana’s technical strengths position it to serve as the backend for this kind of infrastructure.

Standard Chartered also points to growing institutional interest. Since October 2025, the Bitwise BSOL ETF has absorbed 78% of all net inflows into SOL-related ETFs, bringing over 1% of the total supply under ETF management, according to Geoffrey. Meanwhile, digital asset treasuries now hold nearly 3% of SOL.

Kendrick’s revised targets now project SOL at $400 in 2027, $700 in 2028 and $1,200 in 2029.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt