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How Deep Could BTC Fall if $80K Support Breaks?

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How Deep Could BTC Fall if $80K Support Breaks?

The latest headlines surrounding President Trump’s pick for Jerome Powell’s replacement have intensified risk-off sentiment across global markets. This development has weighed heavily on equities and risk assets, with crypto reacting swiftly as liquidity conditions tighten and volatility rises.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has experienced a decisive technical breakdown, shifting focus toward key demand zones

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC has confirmed a bearish breakout below the flag structure, signaling a continuation of the broader bearish move rather than a temporary pullback. This breakdown invalidated the prior consolidation phase and opened the door for accelerated downside momentum.

The asset is now directly confronting the major psychological demand zone at $80K, as highlighted on the chart. This area represents a critical buyers’ base that previously acted as a springboard for impulsive upside moves. The market’s reaction here is crucial.

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Holding this zone could trigger a relief bounce or short-term stabilization, whereas a clean loss would expose lower-liquidity pockets and shift the medium-term bias decisively bearish. The macro uncertainty driven by Fed leadership concerns further increases the probability of volatility expansion around this level, making this demand zone a key decision point.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the structure becomes more tactical. Following the sharp breakdown, Bitcoin is now showing early signs of exhaustion, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback.

From a market-structure perspective, the last supply zone overhead at the $88K crucial zone stands out as the most likely magnet for any corrective move. This area previously acted as a distribution before the impulsive sell-off and is expected to attract sellers on a retest.

A pullback into this supply zone would be technically healthy, allowing the market to rebalance before deciding on continuation or reversal. Failure to reclaim it would reinforce bearish control, while acceptance above it would be the first signal of structural recovery.

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On-Chain Analysis

On the on-chain side, the Realized Price – UTXO Age Bands reveal an important shift in behavior. Longer-term holders remain relatively stable, while shorter-term cohorts show signs of stress as the price trades closer to their realized levels.

Notably, the compression between mid-term realized prices and the asset breaking below the 12-18 month cohort’s realized price suggests that Bitcoin is approaching an area where historical accumulation tends to emerge, particularly if macro fear peaks. While this does not guarantee an immediate bottom, it does support the idea that downside from here may become increasingly reactive rather than trend-driven.

Combined with heightened macro uncertainty, this on-chain positioning reinforces the importance of the current demand zone as a potential pivot area for the next major move.

 

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Crypto World

Cap Airdrops $12 Million in Stablecoins to Early Users

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Cap Airdrops $12 Million in Stablecoins to Early Users


The stablecoin protocol ended its “Frontier” rewards phase with a dollar-denominated token airdrop.

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$55B in BTC Futures Positions Unwound In 30 Days: Will Bitcoin Recover?

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle to hold above $70,000 carried on into Wednesday, raising concerns that the a drop into the $60,000 range could be the next stop. The sell-off was accompanied by futures market liquidations, a $55 billion drop in BTC open interest (OI) over the past 30 days, and rising Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.

The price weakness has analysts debating whether crypto-specific factors or larger macro-economic issues are the driving factor behind the sell-off and what it may mean for BTC’s short-term future.

Key takeaways: 

  • Around 744,000 BTC in open interest exited major exchanges in 30 days, equal to roughly $55 billion at current prices.

  • BTC futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) fell by $40 billion over the past 6-months.

  • Crypto exchange reserves have risen by 34,000 BTC since mid-January, increasing the near-term supply risk.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC open interest collapse points to large-scale deleveraging

CryptoQuant data noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change shows a sharp contraction across exchanges, reflecting widespread position closures, not just freshly opened short positions. 

On Binance, the net open interest fell by 276,869 BTC over the past month. Bybit recorded the largest decline at 330,828 BTC, while OKX saw a reduction of 136,732 BTC on Tuesday.

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In total, roughly 744,000 BTC worth of open positions were closed, equivalent to more than $55 billion at current prices. This drop in open positions coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000, indicating deleveraging as a driving factor, not just spot selling.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Bitcoin open interest 30D change. Source: CryptoQuant

Onchain analyst Boris highlighted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) data shows market sell orders continue to dominate, particularly on Binance, where derivatives CVD sits near -$38 billion over the past six months.

Other exchanges show varying dynamics: Bybit’s CVD flattened near $100 million after a sharp December liquidation wave, while HTX stabilized at -$200 million in CVD as the price consolidates near $74,000.

Related: Bitcoin bounces to $76K, but onchain and technical data signal deeper downside

Increased exchange flows add pressure as analysts watch key levels

Meanwhile, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged in January, totaling roughly 756,000 BTC, led by Binance and Coinbase. Since early February, inflows have exceeded 137,000 BTC, underscoring traders’ repositioning and not necessarily leaving the market.

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On the supply side, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that exchange reserves have risen from 2.718 million BTC to 2.752 million BTC since Jan. 19. The analyst warned that continued growth above 2.76 million BTC could increase selling pressure. The analyst believed that a complete capitulation is yet to take place, which may happen at lower price levels.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Bitcoin exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

Market analyst Scient said Bitcoin is unlikely to form a bottom in a single day or week. Durable market bottoms may develop through two to three months of consolidation near the major support zones, with higher time frame indicators. Scient noted that whether this structure forms in the high $60,000 range or the low $50,000 level remains unclear.

Bitcoin Trader Mark Cullen continues to see potential downside toward $50,000 in a broader macro scenario, but expects a short-term reversion toward the local point of control ($89,000 to $86,000) after BTC swept weekly lows below $74,000 on Tuesday. 

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Mark Cullen’s LTF BTC analysis. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin’s $68K trend line seen as potential BTC price floor: Traders