For several weeks, the oil market remained directly influenced by the US-Iran tensions. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent prices within the $97–110 range. Overnight on 8 April, the parties announced a two-week ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to shipping, immediately removing the accumulated geopolitical premium from prices. Brent declined by over 10%, falling towards the $92 per barrel level.

However, later the same day, the ceasefire came under pressure. Gulf states reported Iranian drone and missile strikes, with the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain confirming attacks on oil facilities and infrastructure. Iran subsequently suspended vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing a breach of the agreement by Israel, which had conducted strikes in Lebanon. Israel clarified that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon.

Negotiations are scheduled for 10 April in Islamabad, although the outcome remains uncertain. The market continues to show high sensitivity to any changes in diplomatic or military rhetoric. In parallel, OPEC+ approved an increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, adding further supply-side pressure.

Technical Picture

On the daily chart, the prolonged consolidation within the $60–75 range concluded with an impulsive rally towards $115, driven by geopolitical escalation in February–March 2026. Notably, on 18 March, vertical volume recorded a peak spike, confirming the climactic nature of the move.

The market failed to sustain these elevated levels, and the subsequent correction pushed prices down to $89, where the price approached the lower boundary of a horizontal volume cluster. Above current levels, the market profile remains dense, with the highest concentration of trading activity (POC) located in the $101–103 range. This area could serve as the nearest upside reference, with a breakout requiring significant buyer participation. The next resistance level could be $109.

For sellers, the key support level could be $89. A break below this level aligns with the base of the previous session and may influence short-term bearish positioning.

The RSI with Moving Averages (nominal) indicator presents a similarly notable picture. The RSI has remained below both moving averages for the past 10 days, with both MAs trending downward. This signals a weakening bullish impulse and a shift towards a neutral-to-bearish oscillator configuration.

Key Takeaways

Brent prices corrected sharply following the removal of the geopolitical premium and increased supply pressure from OPEC+. From a technical perspective, the price remains below the POC zone, while the RSI+MA configuration reflects a bearish context. The key range levels—89 and 109—could be reference points for the upcoming session.

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US Federal Reserve members were split on whether the war in the Middle East could spur further interest rate cuts before the end of 2026, according to minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March meeting.

On Wednesday, the Fed released minutes from its last FOMC meeting on March 17 and 18. The meeting ended with an 11-1 vote to keep rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with many officials cautious about the potential impacts of war and what it could mean for the economy.

Amid a risk of further conflicts, the official consensus pointed to a potential rate cut this year, but as Fed officials noted in the minutes, only if inflation does not get out of control.

“Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” according to the Fed minutes.

Rate cuts are generally seen as a positive catalyst for crypto as they free up investment liquidity and can spur demand for speculative investments. The last interest rate cut was Dec. 10, 2025, with the Fed slashing rates by 25 basis points.

While a cut may still be on the table for this year, the general feeling from the FOMC meeting was that it was “too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the U.S. economy.”

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for April 28-29.

Cuts still possible, but so are hikes

While some officials were cautiously optimistic about a rate cut, others warned that the opposite might be necessary.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions … reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels.”

Related: Iran weighing crypto tolls for ships using Strait of Hormuz: Report

Inflation was not the only concern, as many officials pointed to potential downside risks in the labor market, arguing that “in the current situation of low rates of net job creation, labor market conditions appeared vulnerable to adverse shocks.”

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is currently a 75.6% chance that the Fed will keep rates at 3.5% to 3.75% during the Fed’s Dec. 8 meeting later this year. 

Meanwhile, the chance of a rate cut is 20.4%, while the chance of a rate hike is 2.4% at the time of writing.

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