XRP’s price action has cooled into a setup that several traders are watching for a potential return below the $1 level. On the four-hour chart, a classic head-and-shoulders pattern and a parallel-bear flag are emerging, pointing to a sub-$1 downside scenario if selling pressure intensifies.

Analysts note that bullish arguments are not as compelling at the moment, with momentum gauges suggesting limited upside unless XRP can clear key resistance. At the same time, on-chain metrics are flashing caution, implying that holders could be sitting on limited profits and that weak demand might precede a renewed price dip.

Key takeaways

• XRP appears to be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the four-hour chart, with a neckline near $1.09. A confirmed breakdown could target roughly $0.99, about a 10% slide from current levels.
• Another bearish signal comes from a bear-flag formation on the same timeframe, with a measured target near $0.94 if the price breaks below the lower trendline around $1.10.
• The relative strength index hovers around 43, indicating tepid momentum that could leave XRP vulnerable to further downside unless buyers step in above key thresholds.
• On-chain activity supports a cautious stance: MVRV pricing bands point to the lower green zone near $0.96 as a potential magnet in past downturns, suggesting room for downside before a material reversal materializes.

Head-and-shoulders: a looming neckline test and risk of a sub-$1 scan

Since the first days of June, XRP has displayed the characteristics of a head-and-shoulders pattern on shorter timeframes. The setup features a central peak (the head) flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders) and a common neckline that has been near the $1.09 area on the latest observations. In classic technical analysis, a decisive break below the neckline serves as a bearish confirmation and typically sets a target equivalent to the pattern’s height projected downward from the breakdown point. In this case, the implied downside targets hover around the $0.99 mark, translating to roughly a 10% drop if the pattern resolves as predicted.

On the upside, a sustained move above the right shoulder—roughly at $1.12—could invalidate the pattern, especially since that level aligns with the 20-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart. A clear break above that resistance would open the door to a potential rebound toward the next moving-average hurdle near $1.15, which is close to the 50-period EMA and could offer a short-term rally catalyst.

Overall, traders watching the H&S formation see a clear bifurcation: a breakdown below $1.09 could usher in a sub-$1 test, while a bullish reclaim above near-term resistance could revive the case for a measured move toward the next EMA cluster around $1.15 to $1.20.

Bear flag adds to the sub-$1 downside case and key levels to monitor

Complicating the near-term outlook is a bear flag pattern on the same four-hour window. After a sharp initial sell-off, XRP appears to be consolidating within a rising channel, with the lower boundary currently flirting with $1.10. A sustained weekly close below this line would reinforce the bearish narrative and suggest that the prior downtrend could resume.

Applying the standard target rule for bear flags, the consolidation breakout could point toward around $0.94, representing a roughly 15% decline from current readings. The move comes with confirmation risk: a close above the upper boundary of the flag—around $1.18 to $1.20—would reframe the outlook toward a renewed attempt at higher levels, particularly if momentum accelerates through the region near the 50-period EMA.

The current momentum picture mirrors a cautious stance: the RSI sitting in the low 40s underscoring a lack of bullish conviction. Yet the chart structure leaves room for a shift if buyers reclaim the area just over $1.12, potentially stalling the bear-flag downside and pushing XRP back toward the higher end of the immediate range.

On-chain signals align with a cautious stance, pointing toward $0.96 in store if selling intensifies

Beyond price pattern analysis, on-chain data adds texture to the risk assessment. The MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) framework indicates where holders may be sitting relative to the price at which coins last moved on-chain. The bands show that while XRP has rooms to fall, the next meaningful downside target sits near the lower green zone around $0.96. Historically, this band has acted as a magnet during major downturns, with XRP dipping toward or below this level in prior cycles before finding a more definitive base.

In practical terms, if market participants do encounter weakness that leads to a test of the $0.96 area, it could be accompanied by weaker transaction demand and selling pressure as holders re-assess risk versus potential longer-term relief rallies. By contrast, a sustained push below this band could invite further downside, while a decisive move back above the upper green boundary would be a signal that buyers are re-entering the market with more conviction.

For traders looking for corroboration, the latest pattern readings line up with other market signals. Earlier coverage highlighted that XRP’s transaction demand had cooled, underscoring a broader narrative of cautious participation as traders focus on key support zones. See related coverage discussing how demand dynamics around sub-$1 and $0.65 zones have influenced sentiment and liquidity dynamics in recent sessions.

All told, the confluence of price-pattern warnings, momentum readings, and on-chain stress signals reinforces a cautious stance toward XRP in the near term. The major near-term milestones remain the $1.09 neckline, the $1.12–$1.15 cluster of resistance, and the lower-bound targets near $0.96 to $0.99 depending on how the price reacts to the immediate supports and moving averages.

Where the market goes next will hinge on the balance between sellers pressing toward the neckline and buyers defending the critical thresholds above. If buyers manage to sustain a break above the $1.15 zone and clear the $1.20 area, the path could tilt toward a more constructive setup; otherwise, the bears will likely test the suspected sub-$1 levels in the near term.

What to watch next: monitor the neckline around $1.09 for a potential breakdown or a sticky hold, the 20- and 50-period EMA levels near $1.12–$1.15 for early validation or invalidation of the patterns, and the lower MVRV band near $0.96 as a potential magnet for price weakness. Investors should also keep an eye on on-chain demand signals to gauge whether capitulation or renewed buying interest could accompany any technical break.

For context on related dynamics, previous reporting highlighted XRP’s evolving on-chain demand and its impact on sentiment around critical support levels, offering a reminder that price action on the charts often aligns with shifts in on-chain activity and market participation.

As the week unfolds, traders will be weighing the immediate risk of a breakdown through the neckline against the possibility of a bounce that could reframe XRP’s short-term trajectory. The coming sessions will be telling for whether the sub-$1 narrative holds, or if the market finds footing above resistance and reopens room for a corrective move higher.

Digital Asset, the development firm behind the Canton Network (CC) blockchain used by major banks and trading firms, said Thursday it closed a $355 million fundraising round to back its efforts to bring capital markets onchain.

The investment was led by a16z, with the participation of global institutions including ABN Amro, Apollo Funds, BNP Paribas, Citadel Securities, HSBC, SBI Group and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority through a subsidiary.

The amount raised beat the target of $300 million at a $2 billion valuation that was reported last month.

The investment comes as traditional financial firms increasingly back blockchain infrastructure built specifically for regulated markets. Tempo, the payments chain developed by Stripe and Paradigm, reportedly raised $500 million last year at a $5 billion valuation. Circle Internet (CRCL), the stablecoin issuer behind USDC, raised $222 million for its Arc blockchain at a $3 billion valuation, drawing backing from BlackRock, Apollo Funds, a16z crypto and ARK Invest.

GameStop no longer owns the keys to the bitcoin (BTC) that its shareholders celebrate as one of its coolest and most valuable assets.

According to its latest quarterly SEC filing, CEO Ryan Cohen has pledged all 4,709 BTC to Coinbase Credit.

Workers employed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, not Cohen, now have rights to “rehypothecate, commingle, or unilaterally sell the pledged BTC” worth approximately $300 million at current prices.

GameStop, the videogame retailer-turned-meme stock and digital asset treasury company, bought 4,710 BTC for $500 million in mid-2025, at an average cost above $106,000 per coin.

For context, BTC was trading at $62,000 today.

As its BTC holdings declined in value by hundreds of millions of dollars, GameStop got creative. 

In late 2025, the company pledged all 4,709 of those coins to Coinbase Credit as collateral for a covered-call options strategy. It was a way to squeeze out some premium income out of an otherwise idle treasury asset.

The catch to selling a call, however, is that you sell the right to call away your collateral, as the name suggests quite obviously.

Even worse than a typical covered call

Although a typical stockholder retains stock in their brokerage account after selling an out-of-the-money covered call, Coinbase’s terms are far more aggressive. GameStop has already transferred its BTC to Coinbase’s subsidiary.

BTC, unlike a stock, is a strict bearer asset. Whoever possesses private keys controls the coins outright.

Therefore, in the fine print, Coinbase now has the right to reuse, mix, or sell the pledged coins at will, with GameStop legally disclosing that “control of the pledged BTC transferred to the counterparty.” 

Accounting rules then forced the company to wipe the BTC off its books and replace it with a digital assets “receivable,” a contractual IOU for an equivalent amount of BTC in the future.

Quick Summary

• SpaceX prepares for potential IPO with approximately $1.75 trillion valuation, possibly becoming history’s largest market debut
• Oracle (ORCL) shares tumbled following announcement of substantial AI infrastructure investments and financing plans
• Headline inflation in the United States surged past 4%, primarily fueled by escalating energy costs
• Crude oil prices climbed amid escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran, intensifying inflation worries
• OpenAI submitted confidential IPO paperwork, potentially transforming investor access to artificial intelligence companies

Today delivered multiple significant developments that forced investors to reassess positions across AI infrastructure, inflation trends, and upcoming public offerings.

SpaceX Pursues Unprecedented Public Offering

The SpaceX initial public offering has become the focal point of financial discussions. Market watchers anticipate the aerospace giant will debut with an approximate $1.75 trillion price tag, positioning it as the most valuable IPO ever executed.

Investor appetite appears robust. Reports indicate some retail traders have liquidated holdings specifically to allocate capital toward this anticipated listing.

Skepticism exists, however. Certain market observers are raising red flags regarding potential insider transactions and whether the astronomical valuation already incorporates multiple years of projected expansion.

Previous high-profile technology IPOs have frequently underperformed following initial trading sessions. The SpaceX market entry is poised to become a landmark financial moment in 2026, though post-listing trajectory remains uncertain.

Oracle (ORCL) Shares Tumble Despite Strong Contract Wins

Oracle delivered impressive operational results and secured significant artificial intelligence partnerships. Nevertheless, shares experienced a substantial decline.

The culprit: ambitious capital expenditure plans. Oracle disclosed intentions to deploy tens of billions toward AI infrastructure buildout. The company also announced plans to secure considerable debt and equity financing for these initiatives.

Market participants responded unfavorably. While artificial intelligence enthusiasm persists, mounting pressure exists for corporations to demonstrate that substantial capital outlays will translate into meaningful profitability.

Oracle’s stock decline signals that Wall Street is increasingly scrutinizing AI investment returns rather than merely celebrating contract announcements.

Inflation Surges Past 4% Threshold

U.S. headline inflation jumped beyond 4%, surprising market participants.

Energy price increases drove the acceleration. This development suggests interest rates may remain at elevated levels longer than previously anticipated by investors.

This carries implications for equities, particularly technology and growth-oriented companies, which demonstrate heightened sensitivity to rate trajectory expectations. Inflation data has emerged as a critical variable influencing market movements on a weekly basis.

Crude Prices Jump on Geopolitical Uncertainty

Escalating geopolitical tensions centered on Iran propelled oil prices upward during trading. Climbing energy expenses compound inflationary pressures while generating broader economic growth concerns.

Energy sector equities benefited from the price movement. Conversely, industries with significant fuel dependencies, including transportation and manufacturing, confront challenges if elevated pricing persists.

Sustained oil price strength could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy deliberations.

OpenAI Submits Confidential IPO Documentation

News surfaced today that OpenAI has filed confidential paperwork for a public offering. Anthropic may pursue a comparable strategy.

Combined, these public listings could provide investors with direct artificial intelligence company exposure for the first time, eliminating reliance on indirect investments through Nvidia, Microsoft, or Alphabet.

Certain analysts anticipate this development could spark sector rotation within technology, with investment capital shifting from established AI stocks toward newly public entities.

An OpenAI IPO would rank among the most substantial technology market debuts in history should it proceed.

SpaceX (SPCX) shares will begin trading on Solana the same day the company is expected to list on Nasdaq, according to Sunrise, a tokenization infrastructure provider, and Backpack Securities, a regulated brokerage and crypto trading platform, which are launching a tokenized version of the stock called SPCX.

The token, issued by Backpack, represents ownership of underlying SpaceX shares and can be redeemed for those shares through Backpack’s brokerage platform. The firms say eligible shares can also be converted back into tokens, creating a bridge between traditional brokerage accounts and blockchain-based markets.

The launch attempts to bring newly listed U.S. equities onchain from day one. Backpack says SPCX holders will have a direct redemption path to the underlying security.

SPCX will trade on Solana around the clock, including outside traditional market hours. The token can be held in self-custody wallets and traded across supported Solana-based venues.

The announcement comes as interest in tokenized real-world assets continues to grow across the crypto industry. Stablecoins have become one of blockchain’s most successful use cases, and several firms are now betting that equities could follow a similar path if tokenized shares can be made accessible to a global investor base.