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JPMorgan sees S&P 500 vulnerable as Brent tops $110

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JPMorgan sees S&P 500 vulnerable as Brent tops $110

JPMorgan cuts its S&P 500 target and warns investors are dangerously complacent about Iran war risks, oil above $110, and the hit to growth, earnings, and stocks.

Summary

  • JPMorgan trims its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,500 to 7,200, arguing markets are making a high-risk bet on a quick Middle East resolution.
  • With Brent crude above $110 and shut-ins near record levels, the bank warns each sustained 10% oil rise can shave 15–20 bps from GDP and cut S&P earnings 2–5%.
  • Strategists say a deeper selloff could push the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average toward 6,000–6,200 as demand destruction and wealth effects bite.

JPMorgan became the latest — and most prominent — Wall Street institution to sound the alarm on Thursday, cutting its year-end S&P 500 price target from 7,500 to 7,200 and warning that equity markets are making a “high-risk assumption” by pricing in a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict. The downgrade, issued as Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure sent Brent crude surging above $110 per barrel, signals a growing conviction among institutional analysts that the war’s economic fallout has been systematically underpriced.

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“We believe the market is pricing in a quick end to the Middle East conflict and reopening of the Strait, giving a low probability to a potential demand hit,” JPMorgan wrote in its note. “This is a high-risk assumption given that S&P 500 and oil correlations typically turn increasingly more negative after a ~30% oil spike.”

Oil prices have surged more than 46% since the U.S. and Israel launched their initial strikes on Iran, yet the S&P 500 has fallen less than 4% — a divergence that JPMorgan’s strategists view as a sign of dangerous market complacency rather than genuine resilience. While high-risk segments such as software stocks, South Korean equities, and crypto have sold off, broad equity positioning has barely shifted, with investors hedging rather than derisking in earnest.

The bank’s core warning centers not on inflation — the conventional oil shock narrative — but on demand destruction. JPMorgan argues that if the supply disruption persists, “GDP, demand, and revenues will adjust lower through forced demand destruction.” The bank estimates that each sustained 10% increase in oil prices shaves 15 to 20 basis points off GDP growth. If Brent holds near $110, consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates could fall by 2 to 5%.

The structural supply picture compounds the concern. Oil supply shut-ins have already climbed to 8 million barrels per day — the highest on record — and JPMorgan warned that cuts could reach 12 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 11% of global production.

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JPMorgan Private Bank strategists Joe Seydl and Kriti Gupta laid out the transmission mechanism in stark terms earlier this week: oil sustained above $90 per barrel risks a 10–15% correction in the S&P 500, with international and emerging markets facing even larger spillover losses due to their higher sensitivity to global growth shocks. At $120 oil, the selling could intensify materially.

The wealth effect adds a secondary channel. With U.S. households holding over $56 trillion in stocks and mutual funds, a sustained equity drawdown would feed back into consumer spending — JPMorgan estimates a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could reduce U.S. consumer spending by approximately 1%. “The combined impact of persistently high oil prices and a bear market in the S&P 500 has a detrimental effect on demand, significantly amplifying the negative impact on growth,” the bank concluded.

If the S&P 500 selloff extends below the 200-day moving average near 6,600, the bank said meaningful support may not emerge until the 6,000–6,200 range. For now, with the war entering a dangerous new energy-infrastructure phase and no diplomatic off-ramp in sight, JPMorgan’s revised target may prove optimistic rather than cautious.

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Coinbase Commerce seed phrase page alarms security community ahead of March 31 shutdown

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Epstein files show crypto ties to Coinbase, Blockstream: DOJ

Coinbase Commerce’s seed phrase withdrawal page is drawing fierce criticism from security researchers, who warn it normalizes typing 12-word recovery phrases into a website just days before the March 31 shutdown deadline.

Summary

  • A Coinbase Commerce subdomain at withdraw.commerce.coinbase.com/seed-phrase asks merchants to type 12-word seed phrases into a plain-text web form to recover funds.
  • SlowMist’s Cos, CISO 23pds and on-chain sleuth ZachXBT say the page and its cloneable front end create a powerful phishing template, especially as Commerce is wound down into Coinbase Business by March 31, 2026.
  • Critics argue the flow trains users to ignore the industry rule to never enter a seed phrase online, reviving fears after earlier Coinbase impersonation scams stole about $2 million from users.

A subdomain page belonging to Coinbase Commerce — the company’s merchant payments product — has drawn sharp criticism from leading blockchain security researchers after it was found to be prompting users to enter their 12-word seed phrases, also known as mnemonic or recovery phrases, directly into a web form in plain text. The controversy erupted on Wednesday and intensified Thursday morning, with the discovery coming at a particularly sensitive moment: Coinbase is winding down Commerce entirely by March 31, 2026, as part of a broader platform consolidation under Coinbase Business — meaning tens of thousands of merchants have a narrow window to withdraw their funds.

The page in question, hosted at withdraw.commerce.coinbase.com/seed-phrase, was referenced in a now-deleted Coinbase Commerce help document that directed users to recover funds by importing their recovery phrases into compatible wallets such as Coinbase Wallet or MetaMask. SlowMist founder Yu Xian (known online as Cos) described the practice as demonstrating an “unbelievable lack of security awareness” from a major industry player, having received multiple user reports about the page. On-chain investigator ZachXBT independently flagged the page, warning that its existence creates a direct attack surface for social engineering campaigns targeting Coinbase users.

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The concerns go beyond the page itself. SlowMist’s Chief Information Security Officer, known as 23pds, escalated the alarm by pointing out that the page’s sitemap contains structural flaws that make it trivially easy for malicious actors to replicate. Using tools such as ResourcesSaver, attackers can download the front-end code and deploy visually identical phishing sites — particularly dangerous when combined with Coinbase-lookalike domains that could credibly deceive even experienced users.

The fundamental problem is one of normalisation. Every legitimate security protocol in the cryptocurrency industry is built on a single, non-negotiable principle: a seed phrase should never be entered into any website, form, or app under any circumstances — not even an official one. Seed phrases are the master cryptographic keys to a wallet; whoever possesses them owns the funds. By building a recovery workflow that requires users to type their phrase into a browser, Coinbase has — whether intentionally or through oversight — trained users to accept a behaviour that scammers routinely exploit. Coinfomania noted that the tool even suggests copying phrases from Google Drive as an intermediate step, compounding the risk.

ZachXBT’s warning carries particular weight given his track record. In January 2026, he exposed a Coinbase support impersonation scam that resulted in approximately $2 million in stolen crypto — a scheme that relied on users being conditioned to trust Coinbase-branded interfaces. The Commerce seed phrase page represents a ready-made template for a follow-up attack of potentially far greater scale.

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As of Thursday, Coinbase had not publicly responded to the criticism, despite multiple requests for comment. The company has offered alternative withdrawal methods — including a separate commerce withdrawal tool considered safer by researchers — but has not removed or modified the seed phrase page. With twelve days remaining until Commerce is permanently disabled, the pressure on the exchange to act is mounting rapidly. For the crypto industry’s most prominent publicly listed company, the reputational stakes of a mass phishing event triggered by its own migration tooling could scarcely be higher.

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EtherFi Allocates $25M to Plume to Bring RWA Yield Onchain

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EtherFi Allocates $25M to Plume to Bring RWA Yield Onchain

EtherFi has allocated $25 million to Plume’s real-world asset (RWA) protocol Nest, marking a move to integrate tokenized RWA yield directly into its platform as it looks to expand beyond crypto-native sources of return.

According to Thursday’s announcement, rollout will begin with exposure to Plume’s nBASIS vault, which is tied to Superstate’s USCC crypto carry fund, with plans to add a dedicated real-world asset vault directly into EtherFi’s interface in a later phase.

The initial allocation gives EtherFi users indirect exposure to a strategy combining crypto basis trades, staking rewards and government securities, a structure traditionally available only to institutional or sophisticated investors.

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The integration will extend RWA exposure across EtherFi’s more than $6 billion in user deposits. According to Plume, the vault structure is designed to simplify access by handling execution and reporting onchain, while incorporating predefined risk controls and compliance features.

EtherFi is a crypto yield platform that began with Ethereum liquid staking and has since expanded into broader yield offerings, while Plume provides infrastructure that packages institutional investment strategies into onchain vaults, giving users exposure to institutional strategies managed offchain through integrated crypto platforms.

Plume has also taken steps toward integrating with traditional financial systems, including registering as a transfer agent with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in October.

Related: Babylon-Ledger tie-up expands access to Bitcoin Vaults for collateral use

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Tokenized real-world assets activity surges

Unlike traditional DeFi yield, which is generated within crypto markets, real-world assets strategies derive returns from income streams such as interest on government securities and lending activity.

According to data from RWA.xyz, the value of tokenized real-world assets has surged to more than $27 billion from about $5.7 billion at the start of 2025. Much of that growth has been driven by tokenized US Treasury products, which account for over $11 billion in onchain value.

Real-world assets onchain. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenized Treasurys give investors onchain access to government-backed debt instruments, combining blockchain-based settlement with yield from short-term bills and money market funds. 

Products from companies including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Circle account for a significant share of the market, with Circle’s USYC holding about $2.3 billion, BlackRock’s BUIDL fund around $2 billion and Franklin Templeton’s onchain fund over $1 billion in assets.

Tokenized Treasurys. Source: RWA.xyz

Plume reports 262,325 RWA holders holding more than $348 million in tokenized assets, with distributed asset value up 69% over the past 30 days, according to RWA.xyz data. Its Nest vault products are already live, including a basis-focused vault with more than $26 million in assets

In November, Plume co-founder and CEO Chris Yin told Cointelegraph that the tokenized real-world asset market could grow as much as fivefold this year.

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He added that while most RWA value is currently concentrated in US Treasury bills, a maturing market and shifting interest rate environment are driving users to seek higher-yield opportunities elsewhere.

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