While the leading cryptocurrency was trading above $125k in October 2025, it fell to around $60k yesterday. The decline accelerated sharply — a pattern typical of panic-driven markets where excessive leverage is widely used. According to Coinglass, roughly $2bn worth of long positions were liquidated across crypto exchanges over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s drop of more than 50% over five months has had a direct impact on Coinbase (COIN) shares, which slid below $150 for the first time since April 2025.

Technical analysis of COIN shares

Recall that on 16 January, when analysing the Coinbase (COIN) chart, we:

→ highlighted bearish signals, including a bull trap at peak B;
→ outlined a descending red price channel;
→ suggested that despite COIN trading near a key support area (marked in blue), a strong bullish reversal was unlikely.

Since then:

→ the narrow candle bodies between 20 and 28 January showed that buyers attempted to defend the highlighted support zone, but without success;
→ on 29 January, price broke bearishly below the long-term ascending channel (shown in black), after which COIN continued to fall without finding support. As a result, 13 consecutive bearish daily candles formed.

That said, the extreme fear currently dominating the market is creating conditions for a technical rebound:

→ the RSI indicator has fallen to its lowest level since COIN began trading on the Nasdaq, encouraging profit-taking on short positions;
→ price is hovering near the lower boundary of the descending channel, which has now doubled in width;
→ price is also close to the $145 level, which acted as support in 2024–2025. A false bearish break below this area cannot be ruled out, potentially triggering a psychological shift and altering the balance between supply and demand.

It is reasonable to assume that the sharp collapse in COIN’s share price could attract large-scale investors who may view it as undervalued from a long-term perspective.

Sentiment could also improve following the release of the quarterly earnings report, scheduled for 12 February, as well as the exchange’s strategic plans for 2026.

Buy and sell stocks of the world’s biggest publicly-listed companies with CFDs on FXOpen’s trading platform. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading share CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

In Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading, recognising when market momentum shifts can mean the difference between catching a trend reversal and holding a losing position. The Change of Character (CHoCH) is a price action pattern that can signal these pivotal moments when the balance between buyers and sellers tips. Unlike continuation patterns that confirm ongoing momentum, a CHoCH alerts traders to prepare for directional changes.

This article explores how to identify CHoCH patterns on a chart, explains how they differ from similar concepts like Break of Structure and Market Structure Shift, and demonstrates their practical application through real trading examples.

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Takeaways

• CHoCH is a concept that signals potential trend reversals in Smart Money Concept trading. This pattern has two forms: bullish CHoCH and bearish CHoCH. A bullish CHoCH occurs when price breaks above a recent lower high in a downtrend, while a bearish CHoCH happens when price falls below a recent higher low in an uptrend, indicating possible momentum shifts.
• A CHoCH is usually compared to a Break of Structure (BOS). However, these concepts are opposite. BOS confirms trend continuation by breaking in the direction of the existing trend, whereas CHoCH signals a potential reversal by breaking against the prevailing trend.
• Another common pattern the CHoCH is compared to is a Market Structure Shift (MSS).  However, MSS is a higher-confluence CHoCH that includes additional confirmation signals like a lower high (bearish) or higher low (bullish) before the break, plus strong displacement.
• Change of Character patterns can be found across all timeframes, from intraday to weekly charts, with higher-timeframe signals generally carrying more significance.

Understanding Breaks of Structure

Before delving into concepts like Change of Character (CHoCH) traders should understand the Breaks of Structure (BOS) pattern. A BOS in trading signifies a continuation within the current trend and is marked by a clear deviation from established swing points that indicate previous highs and lows.

In the context of an uptrend, a BOS is identified when the price exceeds a previous high without moving below the most recent higher low. This action confirms that the upward momentum is still strong and likely to continue as buyers push the market to new heights.

Similarly, in a downtrend, a BOS occurs when prices drop below a previous low without breaking the prior lower high, suggesting that sellers remain in control and the downward trend is set to persist.

By recognising these points where the market extends beyond its former bounds, traders can confirm that the current trend is robust and act accordingly. This foundational concept of BOS may not only help in assessing trend strength but also sets the stage for understanding more complex patterns like CHoCH, where the focus shifts from trend continuation to potential trend reversals.

CHoCH Trading Meaning

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In trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) is a concept that reflects a potential shift in market dynamics, often indicating a reversal from the prevailing trend. It may help traders discern when the momentum is shifting, offering a strategic point to consider adjusting their positions.

A CHoCH occurs when there’s a noticeable deviation in the market’s price trend. For example, in a bullish trend characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows, a CHoCH is indicated by the price failing to set a new high and subsequently falling below a recent higher low. This suggests that buyers are losing control, and a bearish trend could be emerging.

Similarly, during a bearish trend marked by lower highs and lower lows, a bullish CHoCH would occur if the price unexpectedly breaks above a recent lower high. This break indicates that sellers are losing their grip, and a bullish trend may be starting.

The Significance of CHoCHs Across Timeframes

The fractal nature of financial markets means that patterns and behaviours recur across various timeframes, each providing unique insights and implications for trading. Understanding CHoCHs in different timeframes may help traders align their strategies with both short- and long-term trend shifts. This is known as multi-timeframe analysis.

In intraday trading, where decisions are made on lower timeframes (like minutes or hours), a CHoCH can signal a possible short-term trend reversal. For example, if a currency pair in a downtrend on a 15-minute chart suddenly posts a higher high, this could indicate a weakening of the bearish momentum, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.

Traders might use this information to close short positions or to consider a long position, capitalising on the emerging upward trend. These short-term CHoCHs allow traders to respond quickly to market changes, potentially securing returns before larger market shifts occur.

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Conversely, CHoCHs observed on higher timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, are particularly significant because they can indicate a shift in the broader market trend that might last days, weeks, or even months. Such changes can then be used by both long and short-term traders to adjust their positioning and directional bias.

How Is Change of Character Identified?

The initial step to identify a CHoCH in trading involves clearly defining the existing trend on a specific timeframe. This is done by marking the significant swing highs and lows that delineate the trend’s progress. These points should represent somewhat meaningful retracements in the price, providing clear markers of trend continuity or potential reversal points.

According to the Smart Money Concept (SMC) theory, the integrity of an uptrend is maintained as long as the price does not trade through the most recent significant higher low. Conversely, a downtrend is considered intact if the price does not surpass the most recent significant lower high. Therefore, traders focus their attention on these critical points.

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To identify a CHoCH, traders watch for a break in these crucial high or low points. For instance, in an uptrend, a bearish CHoCH is indicated when the price achieves a higher high but then reverses to descend below the previous significant higher low.

Similarly, in a downtrend, a bullish CHoCH occurs when the price drops to a lower low before reversing to break above the previous significant lower high, setting a new high. Both types of breaks signal a potential reversal in the trend direction.

To try and spot your own CHoCHs, you can head over to FXOpen’s TickTrader platform to access real-time charts and numerous market analysis tools.

Application of CHoCH

CHoCHs should be integrated with other aspects of the SMC framework. This includes the use of order blocks and imbalances, which are important components in identifying potential reversals.

Order Blocks and Imbalances

An order block is essentially a substantial consolidation area where significant buying or selling has occurred, and prices often revisit these zones before reversing. These blocks can be seen as levels where institutional orders were previously concentrated.

An imbalance, also known as a fair value gap, occurs when the price moves sharply up or down, leaving a zone that has not been traded extensively. Price often returns to these gaps to ‘fill’ them, establishing equilibrium before a potential reversal happens.

In practice, traders can look for a sequence where the price first approaches an order block and begins to fill any existing imbalances. This setup increases confidence in a potential reversal. As the price meets these criteria and a CHoCH occurs, this indicates that the influence of the order block is likely to initiate a price reversal.

Practical Example on GBP/USD

Consider the 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD pair above. We see the pair encounter an order block on the left, one that’s visible on the daily chart. As the price interacts with this block, it begins to retrace, attempting to fill the imbalance but moves away. Eventually, the price completes the fill of the imbalance and meets the previously established order block.

Switching to a 1-hour timeframe, this scenario unfolds similarly. After reaching the order block on the 4-hour chart, another CHoCH occurs, signalling the start of a new uptrend. This lower timeframe CHoCH, following the meeting of the order block, corroborates the potential for a reversal initiated by the higher timeframe dynamics.

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This example illustrates how CHoCHs can be utilised across different timeframes, tying back to the fractal nature of markets discussed earlier. By recognising these patterns and understanding their interaction with order blocks and imbalances, traders can strategically position themselves to capitalise on potential market reversals, aligning their trades with deeper market forces at play.

Change of Character vs Market Structure Shift

A Market Structure Shift (MSS) is a specific type of Change of Character that includes additional signals suggesting a potential trend reversal. Unlike a straightforward CHoCH that typically indicates a trend is shifting but may also be a false break, an MSS can be seen as a higher confluence CHoCH. An MSS occurs after the market first makes a key movement contrary to the established trend—forming a lower high in an uptrend or a higher low in a downtrend—without plotting a higher high or lower low.

Following these preliminary signals, an MSS is confirmed when there is a decisive break through a significant swing point accompanied by a strong displacement (i.e. impulse) move, creating a CHoCH in the process. This sequence not only reflects that the prevailing trend has paused but also that a new trend in the opposite direction is establishing itself.

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Due to these additional confirmations, an MSS can offer added confirmation for traders, indicating a stronger likelihood that a new, sustainable trend has begun. This makes the MSS particularly valuable for traders looking for more substantiated signals in their trading strategy.

The Bottom Line

The Change of Character (CHoCH) is one of the popular Smart Money concepts, offering traders valuable insight into potential market reversals. By learning to identify CHoCH patterns, traders can align their strategies with institutional order flow. However, as with any trading tool, CHoCH isn’t used in isolation but combined with other market analysis techniques.

To test different trading approaches, you can consider opening an FXOpen account and access a wide range of financial assets, low commissions*, and tight spreads* (*additional fees may apply).

FAQ

What Is CHoCH in Trading?

In trading, CHoCH is a technical observation that signifies a change in the trend’s character, where the price movement breaks from its established pattern of highs and lows, suggesting a potential reversal or substantial shift in the market’s direction.

What Is CHoCH in SMC Trading?

In Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) refers to a clear shift in market behaviour that indicates a potential reversal of the prevailing trend. This concept is used by traders to detect early signs of a momentum shift that might lead to significant changes in price direction, enabling strategic adjustments to their trading positions.

What Is a CHoCH in the Market Structure?

A CHoCH in market structure is identified when there is an observable deviation from established price patterns — specifically when new highs or lows contradict the current trend. It signifies that the previous market sentiment is weakening, and a new opposite trend may be starting, prompting traders to reassess their strategies.

How Is CHoCH Identified on a Price Chart?

Identifying a CHoCH involves monitoring significant swing highs and lows for breaks that are contrary to the existing trend. For instance, in an uptrend, a CHoCH would be indicated by a failure to reach a new high followed by a drop below the recent higher low, suggesting a shift to a bearish outlook.

What Is ChoCH vs BOS in Trading?

While both CHoCH and Break of Structure (BOS) are critical in assessing market dynamics, they serve different purposes. CHoCH indicates a potential trend reversal by highlighting a significant change in the price pattern. In contrast, a BOS indicates a continuation of the current trend by showing the price surpassing previous significant highs or lows, reinforcing the ongoing direction.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Understanding where institutional traders have left unfilled orders can provide insights into potential price reversals. Mitigation blocks represent specific zones on price charts where price movements stopped and reversed, offering traders a framework for anticipating future market behaviour.

Within the Smart Money Concept framework, these areas serve as possible reference points for entry and exit strategies. This article examines mitigation in trading, their distinguishing characteristics compared to breaker blocks, and practical applications in trading strategy development.

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Takeaways

• A mitigation block is a price action concept identifying specific price zones where previous price movements halted and reversed. They mark potential areas for future market turns within Smart Money trading frameworks.
• A bullish mitigation block forms during downtrends when price creates a higher low without breaking the previous low, often showing increased buying volume. Conversely, a bearish mitigation block develops in uptrends with a lower high formation and heightened selling pressure at resistance.
• Mitigation blocks are often compared to breaker blocks, but there are significant differences between the two. Mitigation blocks form after failure swings where price doesn’t surpass the previous extreme, while breaker blocks occur when price creates a new high/low before reversing and breaking structure—indicating liquidity may have been taken.
• Traders use mitigation blocks in trading by placing limit orders within validated zones, often after a new peak or trough confirms the block, while combining analysis with higher timeframe context for refined entries.

Definition and Function of a Mitigation Block

A mitigation block refers to a specific zone on a chart that indicates where previous movements have stalled and reversed, marking it as a potential area for future market turns. This concept within the Smart Money framework is popular among traders looking for strategic entry and exit points.

The idea behind these areas is rooted in the dynamics of supply and demand. When a currency pair reaches a level where buyers or sellers have previously entered the market in force, causing a reversal, it suggests a potential repeat of such actions when the price returns to the area.

Characteristics and How Traders Identify a Mitigation Block

Mitigation blocks can be bullish or bearish, each with distinct characteristics:

• Bearish Mitigation Block: This type forms during an uptrend and is identified by a significant peak followed by a decline and a failed attempt to reach or surpass the previous high, creating a lower high. When prices drop below the previous low, the price zone above the low becomes mitigation. It may be characterised by an increase in selling volume as the price approaches the level, signalling resistance and a potential downward reversal.
• Bullish Mitigation Block: Conversely, a bullish type is established during a downtrend. It is characterised by a significant trough, followed by a rise to form a higher low, and a failure to drop below the previous low. As the price moves up, the zone below the high marks mitigation one. This area often shows an increase in buying volume as the price approaches, indicating support and a potential upward reversal.

To have a go at identifying your own blocks, you can head over to FXOpen’s TickTrader platform to access a world of currency pairs and over 1,200 charting tools.

Mitigation Block vs Breaker Block

Mitigation and breaker blocks are both significant in identifying potential trend reversals in trading, but they have distinct characteristics that set them apart. A mitigation block forms after a failure swing, which occurs when the market attempts but fails to surpass a previous peak in an uptrend or a previous trough in a downtrend. The pattern indicates a loss of momentum and a potential reversal as the price fails to sustain its previous direction.

On the other hand, a breaker block is characterised by the formation of a new high or low before the market structure is broken, indicating that liquidity has been taken. This means that although the trend initially looked set to continue, it quickly reverses and breaks structure.

In effect, a breaker appears when the market takes liquidity beyond a swing point before reversing the trend. A mitigation appears when the price doesn’t move beyond the trend’s most recent high or low, instead plotting a lower high or higher low before reversing the trend.

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Application of Mitigation Blocks in Trading

Areas of mitigation in trading can be important tools for identifying potential trend reversals and entry points. When they align with a trader’s analysis that anticipates a reversal at a certain level, it can serve as a robust confirmation for entry.

Traders can utilise these zones by placing a limit order within the area once it is considered valid. Validation occurs after a new peak or trough is established following the initial failure swing that forms the mitigation area.

If a liquidity void or fair-value gap is present, the trader may look for such a gap to be filled before their limit order is triggered, potentially offering a tighter entry. Stop losses might be placed beyond the failure swing or the most extreme point.

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Furthermore, if a mitigation block is identified on a higher timeframe, traders can refine their entry by switching to a lower timeframe. This approach is supposed to allow for a tighter entry point and potentially more effective risk management, as it offers more granular insight into the momentum around the area.

Common Mistakes and Limitations in Mitigation Blocks

While these blocks are valuable for trading, they come with potential pitfalls and limitations that traders should know.

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• Overreliance: Relying solely on mitigation blocks without corroborating with other trading indicators can lead to misjudged entries and exits.
• Ignoring Context: Using these zones without considering the broader market conditions may result in trading against a prevailing strong trend.
• Misinterpretation: Incorrect identification can lead to erroneous trading decisions, especially for less experienced traders.
• False Signals: Mitigation blocks can sometimes appear to signal a reversal but instead lead to a continuation of the trend, trapping traders in unfavourable positions.

The Bottom Line

Mitigation blocks remain a valuable tool for traders seeking to understand institutional behaviour. By highlighting areas where unfilled orders may influence future price action, they can support traders in decision-making. However, like any market concept, mitigation blocks should not be viewed in isolation. Traders combine them with broader market structure analysis, liquidity concepts, and strict risk-control practices.

If you are looking to apply these concepts in a practical trading environment, you can consider opening an FXOpen account to put theory into practice across dozens of currency pairs complemented by robust tools and insights.

FAQs

What Is a Mitigation Block?

A mitigation block is a price zone that identifies potential reversal points. It signals where a currency pair has previously stalled, indicating strong buying or selling pressure, suggesting similar reactions in future encounters with these levels.

How Do Traders Identify a Mitigation Block?

Mitigation blocks are identified by analysing charts for areas where previous highs or lows were not surpassed, leading to a reversal. Traders look for a sequence of movements, including a swing high or low followed by a retracement that fails to exceed the previous swing.

What Is the Difference Between a Breaker Block and a Mitigation Block?

While both indicate potential reversals, a breaker block forms when the price makes a new high or low before reversing, suggesting a temporary continuation of the trend. In contrast, a mitigation block forms without creating a new extreme, indicating a direct loss of momentum and an immediate potential for reversal.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Nexus International hits $1.2 billion revenue as billionaire Gurhan Kiziloz sets sights on $100 billon long-term growth.

Gurhan Kiziloz, the self-made billionaire behind Nexus International, is not one to celebrate mid-journey. His company just crossed $1.2 billion in annual revenue for 2025, triple its 2024 performance, and yet he’s already thinking ten steps ahead. “We’re not calling $1.2 billion a milestone,” Kiziloz said in a recent interview. “There’s much more scale to build. I’d call $100 billion a turning point. That’s where we’re going.”

For most founders, that kind of revenue would signal a peak. For Kiziloz, it barely registers as a checkpoint. The entrepreneur who once faced five bankruptcies is now the sole owner of a company that competes with billion-dollar operators, without raising a single dollar in venture capital. And he’s openly stating that $100 billion is the number that will define his long-term ambition.

The numbers are clear. In 2024, Nexus International reported $400 million in revenue. By the end of 2025, that number hit $1.2 billion. The 200% year-on-year increase marks the largest single-period growth in the company’s history and puts it firmly in the league of mid-sized global operators.

But what makes Nexus different isn’t just the scale, it’s the structure. The company has no external investors. Every dollar used for growth comes from retained earnings. Kiziloz has maintained full ownership of the parent company throughout this expansion, bypassing the equity dilution that usually follows hypergrowth.

The biggest contributor to Nexus’s revenue explosion is Spartans.com, a casino-only gaming platform that goes head-to-head with names like Stake and bet365. Unlike most competitors, Spartans.com doesn’t combine casino and sportsbook offerings. It’s intentionally focused, designed to dominate the casino niche rather than spread thin across multiple verticals.

In 2025 alone, Spartans.com absorbed $200 million in platform reinvestment, every cent funded internally. This operational discipline has become a hallmark of the Nexus playbook: scale only when the existing product is cash-generative, and never dilute ownership to fuel expansion.

The remaining portfolio includes Megaposta, a licensed Latin American brand, and Lanistar, a platform tailored for Europe. While both contribute to the overall structure, Spartans remains the driving force behind the company’s financial ascent.

What makes Kiziloz’s model unique isn’t just that he avoided venture funding. It’s how he used that constraint as a structural advantage. Without external capital, there’s no boardroom politics, no investor timelines, and no incentive to inflate short-term metrics for the sake of fundraising optics. Decisions are made fast, costs are tightly controlled, and accountability rests entirely with Kiziloz and his internal team.

The numbers reflect that clarity. The company reinvested $200 million in 2025 into tech, compliance, and platform architecture, without tapping into credit lines or private equity. That’s rare in a sector where expansion is almost always debt- or dilution-fueled.

It’s easy to misread Kiziloz’s $100 billion target as bravado. But for him, it’s about building a durable model that doesn’t depend on narrative cycles or temporary hype. The $1.2 billion revenue mark is a milestone, yes, but it’s not the story. The story is that he got there without giving up ownership, without artificial growth, and without compromising execution standards.

“I think the future of high-scale businesses will look more like this,” he said. “You don’t need to raise to grow. You need to build things that work and keep control while doing it.”

That approach stands in contrast to most of today’s unicorns, many of which are propped up by billions in funding with no clear path to profitability. Nexus has already crossed the profitability line. And it’s doing so with a product-first, capital-efficient mindset that remains rare, especially in online gaming.

Nexus has not issued public guidance for 2026, nor has it broken down revenue by platform or geography.  Kiziloz’s philosophy is not to speculate forward but to let operational output speak for itself.

But if past performance is any indication, Nexus International is not slowing down. With Spartans.com driving volume, and Megaposta continuing to benefit from early market entry in Brazil, the company’s momentum is clear. And unlike its competitors, Nexus doesn’t have to wait for board approvals or capital calls to deploy that momentum.

The result is a structure that moves faster, adapts more precisely, and scales without compromise.

Gurhan Kiziloz’s story isn’t clean or conventional. He went bankrupt five times before finding the formula that stuck. That formula was simple: eliminate what doesn’t work, double down on what does, and keep ownership at all costs.

Today, with a $1.7 billion personal net worth and a business generating $1.2 billion annually, the math proves that approach works. But for Kiziloz, it’s still early.

Because the goal was never just survival. The goal, as he says, is to reach the turning point. And that number is $100 billion.

Solana’s price has staged a sharp rebound after one of its steepest declines. After breaking down from its descending channel on February 4, SOL plunged nearly 30% to around $67. Since then, the token has recovered more than 15%, climbing back toward the $78 region.

At first glance, the bounce looks encouraging. However, on-chain data suggests that the rebound may be driven by short-term speculation rather than strong long-term demand. Historical patterns show that similar recoveries often fade quickly when speculative money comes in strongly. Current metrics indicate that Solana may still be vulnerable to another leg lower if one key level isn’t reclaimed.

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Descending Channel Breakdown Triggered the 30% Drop

Solana’s sell-off accelerated after the price decisively broke the lower trendline of its descending channel on February 4, in line with an earlier SOL price analysis.

Once the lower trendline support failed, SOL quickly moved toward its projected downside target near $67, completing a decline of nearly 30% from recent highs.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

After reaching the $67 zone, buyers stepped in and triggered a rebound toward $78. While this move represents a recovery of more than 15%, the broader technical structure has not improved.

Similar rebounds in past cycles have often occurred after major dips, but they rarely marked durable reversals unless supported by strong accumulation. So far, the current bounce lacks that confirmation as the buyer persona is now under the scanner.

Short-Term Buyers Lead the Rebound as Long-Term Holders Reduce Exposure

On-chain data shows that Solana’s rebound is being driven mainly by short-term holders rather than long-term investors. According to the HODL waves metric, which separates wallets by time held, the one-day to one-week cohort increased its share of supply from 4.49% to 6.08% between February 4 and February 6.

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This represents a sharp rise in speculative participation over a short period. Historically, this group tends to sell quickly during periods of weakness, making their buying activity unreliable as a foundation for sustained rallies.

A similar pattern appeared in late January. On January 27, short-term holders controlled around 5.26% of the supply. By January 31, their share had dropped to 4.38% as they sold into weakness. During that period, Solana’s price fell from around $127 to $105, a roughly 17% decline.

This behavior highlights how quickly short-term buyers can exit when momentum fades. With their current share rising again, the recent rebound risks unraveling if selling pressure returns.

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At the same time, long-term holders continue to reduce exposure. The Hodler net position change metric, which tracks long-term investor holdings, has declined from approximately 2.87 million SOL on February 3 to around 2.37 million SOL by February 5. A 17% dip in two days, amid the dip.

This shows that investors holding for more than 155 days are still distributing rather than accumulating.

When short-term buyers are increasing exposure while long-term holders are exiting, it usually signals weak market conditions. This imbalance suggests that conviction remains weak and that the rebound is not being supported by strong capital inflows.

Solana Price Levels Show Why the Recovery Remains Unproven

Solana’s price structure reflects the weakness seen in on-chain data.

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The first key level to watch is $93. Reclaiming this zone would require another move of nearly 19% from current levels and would signal a meaningful improvement in market structure and even Hodler confidence. Without a sustained break above this level, upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure.

Above $93, stronger resistance sits near $105 and $121, where previous breakdowns occurred. These zones would need to be reclaimed before a medium-term recovery could be confirmed.

On the downside, the $67 region remains critical support. This level marked the recent cycle low. A sustained break below $67 would expose the next downside target near $59.

If $59 fails, Solana could enter a deeper corrective phase, bringing lower support zones into play. Such a move would likely be accompanied by further selling from short-term holders and continued distribution from long-term investors.

Until Solana reclaims $93 while long-term accumulation returns and speculative activity cools, the rebound remains technically and structurally weak. Under current conditions, price bounces are still vulnerable to rapid reversals.

TLDR

• Toyota reported Q3 operating profit of $7.6 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $6.7 billion as higher prices and a weaker yen offset U.S. tariff impacts.
• The automaker raised its full-year profit forecast by $2.6 billion to $24.2 billion, citing strong sales and cost-cutting measures.
• Toyota stock rose 2% in overseas trading following the earnings beat despite implied Q4 guidance falling below analyst projections.
• CEO Koji Sato will step down and be replaced by CFO Kenta Kon, with Sato moving to vice chairman and chief industry officer roles.
• The company trimmed annual vehicle sales forecast to 9.75 million units from 9.8 million due to production disruptions in Brazil and continued U.S. tariff pressure.

Toyota stock climbed 2% in Friday trading after the Japanese automaker reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that crushed Wall Street expectations. The strong results came despite ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs.

The company posted operating profit of ¥1.2 trillion ($7.6 billion) for the quarter ending December 31. Analysts had projected just $6.7 billion.

Higher vehicle prices helped the automaker maintain profitability. A weaker yen also provided a boost to the bottom line.

Toyota Motor Corporation, TM

Toyota’s U.S.-listed American depositary receipts gained 1.8% in premarket trading. The stock has climbed 25% over the past 12 months.

Tariff Impact Less Severe Than Expected

U.S. import duties on Japanese vehicles remain at 15% after President Donald Trump reduced them from an initial 25% following a trade deal with Tokyo. Many analysts feared these tariffs would severely damage Toyota’s profit margins.

The third-quarter results showed those fears were overblown. Toyota managed to offset the tariff costs through pricing power and currency benefits.

Revenue grew nearly 8% year-over-year to ¥13.5 trillion. Net income fell 40% to ¥1.3 trillion, reflecting increased costs and investment spending.

The automaker increased its full-year profit forecast by ¥400 billion ($2.6 billion) to ¥3.8 trillion ($24.2 billion). The raised guidance reflects better-than-expected performance in the first three quarters.

Mixed Outlook for Fourth Quarter

Toyota’s implied fourth-quarter operating profit guidance sits at approximately $3.8 billion. Wall Street analysts currently project $5.6 billion for the period.

Last year, Toyota reported $7.7 billion in operating profit during the fiscal fourth quarter. The company’s fiscal year runs through March 31.

Toyota trimmed its annual vehicle sales forecast to 9.75 million units from 9.8 million. Production disruptions in Brazil contributed to the reduced outlook.

Chinese sales continue to face pressure as diplomatic tensions between Tokyo and Beijing persist. U.S. tariffs remain a headwind despite the recent reduction.

Leadership Transition Announced

Toyota announced a major leadership change alongside its earnings report. CEO Koji Sato will step down from his position.

CFO Kenta Kon will take over as chief executive. Sato will remain with Toyota as vice chairman and chief industry officer.

The leadership transition comes as Toyota navigates a challenging global trade environment. The company continues implementing cost-cutting measures to maintain profitability.

Foreign exchange movements provided tailwinds during the quarter. The yen’s weakness against the dollar helped offset some cost pressures.

Car stocks have performed well recently despite tariff concerns. Ford Motor stock is up 48% over the past year, while General Motors has gained 74%.

Toyota’s strong quarterly results and raised full-year guidance were enough to satisfy investors on Friday. The company’s ability to beat estimates while managing tariff headwinds demonstrates pricing power in a difficult environment.

South Korea’s cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb faced a major operational mishap on February 6, 2026, which quickly sent the BTC/KRW trading pair down by double digits.

It brings to mind past controversies about the exchange, including incidents of partial liability in data leaks.

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Bithumb’s Accidental 2,000 BTC Airdrop Sparks 10% Bitcoin Crash on Exchange

Reportedly, a staff member accidentally sent 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC) to hundreds of users instead of the intended 2,000 Korean Won (KRW) reward.

The error triggered an immediate wave of sell-offs, sending Bitcoin’s price on the exchange more than 10% below global market rates.

Dumpster DAO core member Definalist first reported the incident, citing a routine airdrop meant as a small incentive for platform users.

Amidst the chaos, some users reportedly benefited significantly from the mistake, selling their unexpected Bitcoin windfall at market prices.

The accidental BTC distribution has raised questions about internal controls and risk management at crypto exchanges, particularly those handling high-value digital assets.

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“Crazy to think that exchanges can still do paper trading like this, even in 2026 lmao,” remarked Definalist.

Notably, however, the Bitcoin price crash was largely confined to Bithumb due to the exchange’s isolated order book. Users sold massive amounts of BTC directly on Bithumb, overwhelming its liquidity and causing a 10% local drop.

Other exchanges remained unaffected because the selling pressure didn’t enter their markets, and global arbitrage mechanisms hadn’t yet adjusted the discrepancy, keeping the impact largely contained.

Notwithstanding, the incident highlights the operational risks that can persist even in major exchanges, despite years of industry maturation. It also shows how a simple input error can cascade into substantial market disruption.

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Bithumb did not immediately respond to BeInCrypto’s request for comment and has not yet released an official public statement on corrective measures.

Still, the event could influence market confidence in the short term, particularly on exchanges where operational errors have immediate price consequences.

Bithumb’s Operational History and Corporate Changes Highlight Ongoing Risks

Bithumb itself has a checkered history with security and operational issues. In 2017, a data breach exposed customer information, and in a 2020 ruling, local media reported that the exchange was found partially liable in one case in which a user lost $27,200.

The court ruled that, although Bithumb’s database had been accessed, the claimants should have recognized the scam attempts and awarded only $5,000 in damages.

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Other claims were dismissed because the court found the private information could have been obtained elsewhere.

Bithumb has also undergone significant corporate changes in recent years. In 2018, the exchange sold a 50% stake to BK Global Consortium, a group led by startup investor Kim Byung-gun, who was already the company’s fifth-largest shareholder.

This acquisition came amid a broader contraction in the crypto sector investment. According to FinTech Global research, global crypto investments peaked at $7.62 billion in 2018 before falling to $3.11 billion in 2019. In the first half of 2020 alone, the sector raised just $578.2 million.

This latest mishap adds to Bithumb’s long history of operational challenges, reinforcing the view that while crypto adoption is growing, the sector remains vulnerable to human and technical errors, even in leading exchanges.

Wall Street bank Citigroup is dialing back expectations for Coinbase (COIN) amid a risk-off mood gripping markets.

In a Friday note to clients, the bank’s analysts lowered their price target on the crypto exchange to $400 from $505, citing weaker trading volumes, softer institutional activity and ongoing uncertainty around the timing of U.S. crypto legislation.

The new $400 price target still represents more than a doubling in price from COIN’s close last night of $146. The same analyst team lifted its price target on COIN to $505 in July 2025 as the stock was hitting a record high near $450.

Shares are up 6% in pre-market action on Friday as crypto markets recover a bit from Thursday’s crash that saw bitcoin plunge all the way to $60,000.

Despite the near-term reset, the firm reiterated its buy/high risk rating, calling Coinbase the category leader and a prime beneficiary of eventual crypto reform. Progress on CLARITY, Citi said, remains the key catalyst for reviving the stock’s momentum.

The bank now expects Senate negotiations over the market structure bill to stretch beyond 2026, even as groundwork continues.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his firm had pulled support for a sweeping digital assets bill after finding provisions that could have harmed consumers and stifled competition.

The bill has repeatedly lost steam as crypto and banking lobbyists clash over stablecoin yield, while lawmakers from both parties remain deadlocked on several other provisions.

Marking current crypto prices to market, analysts led by Peter Christiansen cut their near-term forecasts, trimming Coinbase fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue by roughly 10% to $1.69 billion, about 4% below consensus.

After factoring in a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on crypto holdings and Coinbase’s equity stake in Circle (CRCL), the analysts now forecast a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64.

Coinbase will release fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results after the close on February 12.

Read more: Citi says CLARITY Act momentum builds, but DeFi fight could stall crypto bill

ARK Invest, the asset manager led by Cathie Wood, has shifted its trading stance on crypto equities, moving away from Coinbase stock as the shares extended declines and turning toward Bullish, the NYSE-listed digital asset platform. In a Thursday filing observed by researchers, ARK sold 119,236 shares of Coinbase stock (EXCHANGE: COIN) for roughly $17.4 million, a move that comes on the heels of a smaller purchase the prior day. The stock has struggled this year, trading down about a third and stepping near multi-month lows as macro and crypto headwinds weigh on the sector. Despite the sale, ARK still holds a sizable stake in COIN across its flagship funds, underscoring the fund’s longer-term, high-conviction strategy in crypto-exposed equities.

Key takeaways

• ARK sold 119,236 Coinbase shares (EXCHANGE: COIN) for around $17.4 million, marking its first Coinbase exit in 2026 and its first sale since August 2025.
• The trade follows a modest, earlier purchase of 3,510 COIN shares for about $630,000, signaling a timing shift rather than a simple divestment.
• Coinbase stock has fallen roughly 37% year-to-date, illustrating broader weakness in crypto equities amid a retracement in digital-asset prices and regulatory uncertainty.
• ARK rotated the capital into Bullish (EXCHANGE: BLSH), taking 716,030 shares for about $17.8 million, a bet on an institution-focused platform listed on the NYSE in August 2025.
• Bullish has experienced a substantial drawdown since its listing, with shares trading around the $25 level after a more-than-60% drop from IPO highs; the move positions ARK as a notable, if opportunistic, early-stage investor in the platform.
• Despite the shift, ARK’s exposure to Coinbase remains substantial, with COIN representing a notable portion of its holdings across ARK’s flagship ETFs.

Tickers mentioned: $COIN, $BLSH, $ARKK, $ARKW, $ARKF, $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative. The Coinbase sale and general crypto equities weakness contributed to a lower price environment for COIN and related holdings.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. ARK’s strategic reallocation hints at concentration risk management and sector rotation rather than a simple asset dump or outright pivot away from crypto exposure.

Market context: The latest moves come as crypto markets trade in a risk-off regime, with institution-focused platforms drawing attention as potential hedges or air-cover for traditional equities amid ongoing macro and regulatory considerations.

Why it matters

The decision by ARK Invest to trim Coinbase shares (EXCHANGE: COIN) while allocating capital to Bullish (EXCHANGE: BLSH) highlights a broader pattern among active managers navigating crypto equities in 2026. Coinbase, once a central pillar of public-market crypto participation, has weathered sharp swings as investors recalibrate exposure to digital-asset ecosystems in the face of evolving regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. ARK’s action underscores the importance of liquidity and portfolio rebalancing in a sector characterized by outsized moves and opaque macro-linked catalysts.

On the one hand, the Coinbase sale signals a realignment of risk as ARK seeks to diversify away from a single stock that has borne the brunt of multiple dislocations in the crypto space. On the other hand, the allocation to Bullish reveals an appetite for a different kind of exposure — one that concentrates on an exchange-traded vehicle that aggregates institution-grade access to digital assets and related services. Bullish, having listed on the NYSE in August 2025, has seen a challenging stretch, with shares down considerably since inception, yet it remains part of a broader ecosystem believed to be critical to mainstream institutional adoption of crypto infrastructure.

ARK’s ongoing stake in Coinbase across its three funds remains meaningful. The holdings, spread across ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), account for roughly 3.7%, 3.4%, and 4.95% of each fund’s COIN allocation, respectively. This positioning reflects a long-tail belief in Coinbase’s role within the crypto-financial services landscape, even as the stock has shifted in its relative weight. The juxtaposition of a continued COIN stake against a fresh BLSH bet reveals a nuanced strategy: maintain exposure to a marquee crypto access point while seeking to participate in a broader trend toward institutional-grade platforms and crypto-native financial infrastructure.

The backdrop to these moves includes bitcoin’s recent price dynamics and the broader risk-off tone that has pressured crypto equities. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) experienced volatility in the week, testing levels around the lower end of the prior range before rebounding into a more cautious stance among investors. The price action around BTC and other digital assets remains a critical driver for the equity valuations of publicly traded crypto-exposed firms, including Coinbase and Bullish, making ARK’s rebalancing a microcosm of how active funds adapt to shifting liquidity and sentiment in the cryptoverse.

In territory that remains volatile and highly followable, ARK’s positioning illustrates a continuity of its core thesis: basic, scalable exposure to transformative technologies and the financial infrastructure that supports them, even in the face of near-term price retrenchment. Coinbase, as one of the clearest on-ramps to crypto markets, continues to matter for both retail and institutional participants, while Bullish represents a distinct, institution-focused angle on the crypto economy. The divergence in performance between COIN and BLSH mirrors a broader market pattern where individual stock trajectories can diverge from sectoral or platform-level narratives, presenting both risk and potential opportunity for nimble investors.

What to watch next

• ARK’s next 13F filings and any subsequent COIN or BLSH trades, which will indicate whether the shift is ongoing or a one-off adjustment.
• COIN’s price action in the weeks ahead, particularly in response to crypto market volatility, regulatory updates, or earnings commentary from Coinbase management.
• Performance and liquidity changes in Bullish (BLSH) as it continues to navigate institutional demand for crypto-enabled platforms.
• Any further commentary from Ark Invest on its longer-term crypto thesis and how the COIN and BLSH positions fit into a broader risk framework.

Sources & verification

• ARK trade filing showing the sale of 119,236 COIN shares for roughly $17.4 million and the prior day’s smaller purchase.
• Nasdaq data confirming Coinbase’s year-to-date decline (about 37%).
• NYSE data confirming Bullish’s listing on the NYSE and its subsequent price trajectory, including the ~60% drop from IPO levels.
• ARK’s disclosed holdings of COIN across its funds: ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF, with COIN representing 3.7%, 3.4%, and 4.95% of each fund, respectively.
• Historical context on Coinbase’s direct listing and its long-term share-price performance since April 2021.

ARK reverses course: Coinbase stake discarded as Bullish bet grows

ARK Invest’s latest activity sheds light on an ongoing approach that blends conviction with tactical rotation. The firm’s exit from a portion of its Coinbase stake (EXCHANGE: COIN) — 119,236 shares valued at roughly $17.4 million — occurred on Thursday as the stock retraced from a string of gains and moved toward support levels near multi-month lows. This action followed a modest purchase on Tuesday, when ARK added 3,510 COIN shares for about $630,000, a signal that the firm remains comfortable with exposure to Coinbase but is recalibrating its risk posture amid a cooler macro and a softer price environment for crypto equities.

Even as ARK trims its Coinbase exposure, it did not abandon crypto-market participation altogether. The fund allocated capital to Bullish (EXCHANGE: BLSH), acquiring 716,030 shares for approximately $17.8 million. Bullish, which listed on the NYSE in August 2025, provides an institutional-grade gateway to crypto markets and related services — a structure ARK evidently views as a complementary exposure to COIN’s direct stock dynamic. Bullish’s post-listing performance has been uneven, with shares down more than 60% from the IPO highs, yet the asset’s placement in ARK’s portfolio underscores a strategic tilt toward infrastructure-driven plays rather than pure-asset bets.

Across Coinbase (COIN) and Bullish (BLSH), ARK’s activity this year reflects a delicate balancing act. COIN remains a meaningful component of ARK’s strategy, particularly within the ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF funds, where it represents a combined stake that surpasses several other holdings. Since Coinbase’s direct listing in April 2021, the stock has trended lower from its initial surge, illustrating the long arc of a company that once symbolized the crypto market’s public-market gateway. The overall trajectory for COIN this year has mirrored the broader sector’s volatility, influenced by interest-rate expectations, regulatory debates, and evolving investor appetite for crypto exposure through both direct equity and exchange-traded vehicles.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and other digital assets have remained pivotal in shaping the context for such trades. The price action of BTC and the ensuing risk sentiment influence how institutions value crypto-centric equities, including Coinbase and platforms like Bullish. In a market where liquidity and sentiment can flip quickly, ARK’s decision to simultaneously book a sale and pursue a fresh stake in an institutional gateway signals a nuanced stance: preserve exposure to a core asset while seeking to diversify through a platform with potential for broader institutional adoption. The net effect is a portfolio that can weather near-term volatility while maintaining a longer horizon exposure to the crypto economy’s infrastructure and liquidity channels.

For investors keeping a close eye on ARK’s moves, the underlying takeaway is not a simple binary bet on one asset but a calculated reallocation that emphasizes liquidity, diversification, and the belief that crypto infrastructure remains a meaningful layer in the broader financial system. The balance ARK seeks — continuing exposure to Coinbase while adding Bullish — indicates a perspective that the crypto economy will require both direct access points and regulated, institution-facing platforms as the market matures. As the sector continues to grapple with regulatory signals and macro headwinds, ARK’s actions offer a lens into how active managers navigate a landscape where volatility often coexists with potential for structural shifts in crypto finance.

Bitcoin Core developer Gloria Zhao has stepped down as a maintainer and revoked her Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) signing key, ending about six years as one of the project’s gatekeepers. 

On Thursday, Zhao submitted her last pull request to the Bitcoin GitHub repository, removing her key from the trusted keys and withdrawing herself as one of the few maintainers able to update Bitcoin’s software.

Becoming the first known female maintainer in 2022, she focused on mempool policy and transaction relay: the rules and peer‑to‑peer logic that decide which transactions get into nodes’ waiting rooms and how quickly they propagate across the network. 

She helped design and implement package relay (BIP 331) and TRUC (Topologically Restricted Until Confirmation, BIP 431), along with upgrades to replace‑by‑fee (RBF) and broader P2P behavior, making fee bumping more reliable and reducing censorship.

Zhao’s work was funded through Brink, where she became the organization’s first fellow in 2021, with her fellowship backed by the Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Development Fund and Jack Dorsey’s Spiral (formerly Square Crypto), placing her among a small cohort of publicly supported, full‑time open‑source Bitcoin protocol engineers.

Beyond her technical contributions, Zhao mentored new contributors and co‑ran the Bitcoin Core PR Review Club, helping junior developers learn how to review complex changes and navigate Core’s conservative review culture. 

Related: Bitcoin Core v30 bug risks fund loss during legacy wallet upgrades

Split over OP_RETURN and Knots

Her resignation comes after more than a year of public disputes between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots, and the removal of OP_RETURN limits, a fight over whether Bitcoin’s default node software should make it harder to use block space for non‑monetary data.

In 2025, Zhao deleted her X account amid personal attacks during the OP_RETURN war, after a livestream in which a core developer questioned her credentials.

While some Bitcoin Core critics celebrated Zhao’s departure, others took a more somber tone.

“They bullied her and made her life as miserable as possible until she rage quit, and quite frankly, I think what they did to her was tragic,” said pseudonymous Bitcoiner Pledditor.

Pledditor added that it set a “terrible precedent” and called it, “sad and pathetic.

“Congratulations you finally did it. You bullied one of Bitcoin Core’s most prolific and consistently excellent maintainers until she gave up,” said Chris Seedor, co-founder and CEO at Bitcoin wallet backup company Seedor.

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