• HYPE must reclaim $62.16 to target the next resistance at $64.55.
• HIP-4 introduces permissionless prediction markets on Hyperliquid.
• Creating a market requires a 500,000 HYPE bond with slashing risk.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has spent the past month trading below its mid-June peak, but a major protocol upgrade is drawing fresh attention to the cryptocurrency.

The combination of a key technical setup and the upcoming HIP-4 permissionless prediction markets upgrade has revived hopes of another breakout attempt above $62.

HIP-4 introduces permissionless prediction markets on Hyperliquid

The proposed HIP-4 upgrade introduces permissionless prediction markets, allowing qualified participants to create markets directly on the network rather than relying on a centrally managed approval process.

Prediction markets enable users to trade on the outcomes of future events, including elections, sporting events, macroeconomic developments, and cryptocurrency-related milestones.

Instead of operating as a separate application, these markets will run on Hyperliquid’s existing trading infrastructure alongside spot and perpetual products.

The upgrade is designed to use the same order book, liquidity pools and trading accounts that already support the protocol’s broader ecosystem.

This approach allows prediction markets to integrate with Hyperliquid’s existing trading environment rather than creating a standalone platform.

A notable feature of HIP-4 is the economic requirement placed on market creators.

Anyone seeking to launch a permissionless prediction market must post a 500,000 HYPE bond before a market can go live.

Based on HYPE’s current price near $60.92, that requirement represents roughly $30.5 million worth of tokens.

The bond also carries slashing risk, meaning part or all of it can be forfeited if a market creator violates protocol rules or engages in malicious activity.

The mechanism is intended to strengthen accountability while protecting the integrity of markets created on the network.

The proposal also expands the practical role of HYPE within the protocol.

Beyond its existing functions, the token becomes a core economic requirement for launching new prediction markets, linking network participation directly to token ownership.

Hyperliquid price analysis

Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, was trading at $60.92 at the time of writing, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours.

During the same period, the token moved between $59.85 and $61.57, showing relatively tight price action.

Overall, the recent trend has been weaker over longer time frames, with HYPE declining 5.4% in the past seven days, 12% over the past two weeks, and 14.1% over the last 30 days.

Even so, the token remains 33.4% higher than it was a year ago, highlighting that the broader trend is still stronger than the recent pullback suggests.

From a historical perspective, HYPE is trading about 21.2% below its all-time high of $76.87, reached on June 16, 2026.

In addition, Hyperliquid continues to attract significant activity across its ecosystem.

The protocol currently secures approximately $6.069 billion in total value locked (TVL), while 24-hour trading volume stands at around $268.29 million, reflecting continued participation despite the recent decline in price.

Technical indicators place $62.16 in focus

Price action has now shifted attention to several technical levels that could determine HYPE’s next direction.

The first major resistance sits at $62.16. A confirmed daily close above that level would place the next resistance around $64.55, making $62.16 one of the most closely watched levels on the chart.

On the downside, HYPE is trading near an important support level at $60.74. Maintaining that level could help stabilise recent price action, while a break below it would shift attention toward the next support at $59.18.

Momentum indicators also show that the market has not reached an extreme condition.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) currently reads 42.89, placing it in neutral territory rather than in either overbought or oversold conditions.

The moving average structure, however, presents a mixed picture.

HYPE remains below its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating that short-term momentum is still under pressure.

However, the token continues to trade above both the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, suggesting that the longer-term outlook remains intact despite the recent correction.

Japan’s parliament has cleared a landmark amendment recognizing cryptocurrencies as financial assets. Cryptocurrencies in Japan were previously classified under the Payment Services Act.

The decision will subject cryptocurrencies to stricter regulations and disclosure requirements, while lowering the tax rate on crypto to 20%.

Japan Parliament Clears Landmark Amendment

The amendment brings cryptocurrencies closer to the regulatory regime governing stocks and bonds. It will subject cryptocurrencies to stricter insider trading rules, stronger regulatory oversight, stringent disclosure norms, and harsher penalties for unregistered operators. The decision also lowers the tax on crypto investments from 55% to 20%, and could see the introduction of spot crypto ETFs in the near future.

A Decisive Move

Japan is one of the earliest proponents of cryptocurrency regulation, and classified digital assets under its Payments Services Act. The amendment classifies crypto as a financial and investment asset rather than a payment instrument. The decision has not gone unnoticed in the global crypto community, as it signals growing mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Can Indian Investors Expect Similar Legislation

According to experts, policymakers in New Delhi could follow Japan’s lead and enact similar legislation in India. However, industry figures in India have tempered expectations of an immediate change in policy, regulation, and taxation, but remain cautiously optimistic about the global crypto ecosystem. According to Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, Japan’s decision reinforces the fact that markets are accepting cryptocurrencies as an investment class.

“Japan’s decision to classify cryptocurrencies as financial assets is another sign that global markets are moving toward treating crypto as a mainstream investment class rather than a speculative alternative.”

Patel believes Indian investors stand to benefit, albeit indirectly, from greater institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved market infrastructure.

India taxes all crypto gains at a flat 30% rate, and a further 4% health and education cess. It also imposes a 1% Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) on all transactions. Additionally, investors cannot offset their losses against gains.

A Widening Policy Gap

Patel added that Japan’s decision highlights the significant policy gap between India and developed economies in regulating crypto.

“Japan has paired stricter oversight with a more competitive tax framework to encourage innovation and capital formation. As more countries adopt similar approaches, India has an opportunity to build on its leadership in crypto adoption by creating a regulatory environment that protects investors while enabling the ecosystem to grow.”

Nischal Shetty, founder of cryptocurrency exchange WazirX, echoed Patel’s views, adding that Japan has achieved something that several global economies are contemplating. Shetty highlighted that Japan’s amendment allows crypto investors to carry forward their losses for up to three years.

Industry experts also said that stronger regulations could build confidence and help innovation. Sumit Gupta, co-founder of CoinDCX, stated,

“Such developments are a net positive movement for the global crypto industry as it can bring more legitimacy and clarity, potentially attracting more institutional and retail investors and fostering a safer environment.”

Industry experts believe India has the potential to become a major crypto hub. Katie Mitchell, Director of International Policy at Coinbase, believes India, with its large crypto user base, could be at the vanguard of the next generation of financial services.

“India, in particular, has an opportunity to build on its existing strengths. With one of the world’s largest bases of crypto users and developers, India already has a strong foundation to lead the next generation of financial services.”

However, she noted that a clear regulatory and tax framework is crucial to support the sector in India.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has continued funding its Bitcoin treasury approach without changing its BTC position. In a new SEC filing, the company detailed sales of its Class A common stock under an at-the-market (ATM) program, bringing in fresh cash while reporting no Bitcoin purchases or sales during the period covered.

According to a Form 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy raised $263.5 million by selling shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) common stock between July 13 and July 19. The filing also shows that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings remained steady at 843,775 BTC, acquired for a total purchase price of $63.69 billion, implying an average acquisition cost of $75,476. Bitcoin was last trading around $64,657 at the time of the report.

Key takeaways

• Strategy sold $263.5 million worth of MSTR common stock via its ATM program from July 13–July 19.
• No Bitcoin trades were executed during the same reporting window, leaving BTC holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC.
• The company’s U.S. dollar reserve rose to $3.225 billion, supported in part by expected (unsettled) proceeds from stock sales.
• Strategy has not used preferred stock ATMs during the reporting period, even as debates continue over the valuation of its preferred shares.

Cash build through MSTR sales, BTC left untouched

Strategy’s latest filing centers on capital-raising activity rather than on any movement in its Bitcoin treasury. Under its common stock ATM program, the company sold MSTR shares and generated $263.5 million in proceeds during the week ended July 19, the SEC filing states.

Importantly for investors tracking Strategy’s spot BTC accumulation, the company reported no Bitcoin purchases or sales during the coverage period. As a result, its BTC balance stayed fixed at 843,775 BTC. That matters because Strategy’s broader strategy has often been assessed through the lens of whether new funding translates directly into additional Bitcoin buys. In this case, the answer is no for the specific week in question.

The company also disclosed the accounting backdrop: the BTC it already holds totals $63.69 billion in purchase price, with an average acquisition cost of $75,476, as listed on Strategy’s website. That cost basis continues to be a key reference point for how markets gauge performance when Bitcoin’s price moves.

Reserves climb to $3.225B and how that money is used

While BTC holdings were unchanged, Strategy’s liquidity increased. Following its latest sale of about 2.73 million MSTR shares, the company boosted its U.S. dollar reserve to $3.225 billion—up 7.5% from $3 billion the week earlier.

Strategy’s filing indicates the reserve includes expected proceeds from MSTR stock sales that had not yet been settled at the time of reporting. The company said those funds are used for practical financing needs tied to its capital structure, including dividends on its preferred stock and interest payments on its outstanding debt.

This distinction—between “expected proceeds” and settled cash—can be relevant for readers evaluating how quickly capital can flow into dividends and debt service, especially in periods where stock sales move faster than settlement timing.

The update also follows an earlier weekly pattern. In the previous week’s 8-K, Strategy similarly reported no Bitcoin purchases, while raising $466.7 million through its MSTR ATM program. Again, the company did not sell shares under any preferred stock ATM programs during either reporting period.

Strategy still reported remaining capacity of roughly $23.5 billion under its common stock ATM program, which would give it room to raise additional capital if market conditions allow further sales.

Preferred stock scrutiny resurfaces: “yield product” vs cash-flow bond

Beyond the mechanics of capital raising, investors continue to debate how to value Strategy’s preferred stock, commonly discussed under the ticker STRC. In market data cited from Yahoo Finance, STRC closed at $85.29 on Friday, while MSTR ended the session at $94.85.

Credit investor Khing Oei pointed to potential mispricing in an X post published Sunday. He argued that STRC may be undervalued because the market appears to treat the security primarily as a straightforward “14% yield” instrument rather than valuing the expected stream of cash flows over time.

Oei said that STRC should be approached more like a bond, emphasizing that investors typically do not measure fixed-income instruments simply by dividing the next coupon by today’s price. He referenced a model suggesting STRC could be worth around $96 even in a scenario where Bitcoin never gains value again, on the premise that Strategy could continue supporting dividend payments for decades.

In Oei’s view, leverage is the key driver of how STRC’s price may behave. If Bitcoin strengthens and improves Strategy’s balance sheet, he suggested STRC could potentially move closer to its $100 par value.

For investors, this is the central tension: Strategy’s BTC treasury model can support preferred dividends under varying market conditions, but the pricing of preferred equity depends not only on the current BTC level, but also on expectations for long-term coverage, leverage dynamics, and how quickly markets re-rate the risk embedded in that cash-flow structure.

What to watch next as Strategy keeps raising liquidity

Strategy’s latest filing shows a familiar pattern: liquidity is raised through MSTR-related share sales while BTC holdings are left unchanged in the reporting window. The near-term question for market participants is whether future ATM activity continues to translate into additional Bitcoin purchases, and whether the ongoing debate over STRC valuation narrows as cash-flow expectations and leverage assumptions evolve.

Bitcoin traders struggled to push through the $65,000 area on Monday, even as volatility picked up around the start of the Wall Street session. The pullback reflected broader pressure on risk assets, where renewed concerns tied to the US-Iran situation and an institutional sell-off in parts of the US tech sector weighed on sentiment.

Despite the hesitation, several market participants maintained an upside bias—framing $65,000 as a near-term ceiling and pointing to the high-$60,000s as the next level that could confirm a more constructive structure for BTC/USD.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and hold above $65,000, with traders describing the level as a July “roadblock.”
• US equities opened the week with headwinds from both geopolitical risk (US-Iran) and a reported acceleration in hedge-fund selling of tech stocks.
• Oil prices stayed elevated above $80 per barrel, keeping pressure on broader risk appetite.
• Traders’ near-term bullish expectations cluster around a move toward the $67,000–$69,000 zone if BTC can reclaim momentum.

Wall Street jitters and the “record pace” tech sell-off

According to TradingView, BTC volatility returned around Monday’s Wall Street open, aligning crypto price action with shifting risk sentiment in traditional markets.

A notable part of the narrative came from The Kobeissi Letter, which reported that hedge funds were selling information technology stocks “at a record pace.” In an X post, the account said hedge funds sold tech stocks in 6 of the last 8 weeks, adding that total 8-week sales were the largest in at least 10 years, citing Goldman Sachs data. This matters for crypto because BTC often trades as a macro-sensitive asset during periods when institutional flows tighten in growth-oriented equities.

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were modestly higher, while the Dow Jones was down about 0.3%. Still, the direction was not uniformly supportive—suggesting investors were able to find footing in indices while selectively reducing exposure elsewhere.

Geopolitics added another layer of caution. Oil prices remained above $80 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz appeared likely to stay closed, with rhetoric intensifying between the US and Iran. In practice, sustained energy risk tends to complicate expectations for inflation and global growth, which can translate into tighter financial conditions and less tolerance for risk across asset classes.

On the political front, a post on Truth Social attributed to US President Donald Trump said Iran should be included in a sanctions package initially focused on Russia. While sanctions specifics and timelines are not detailed in the excerpt, the broader point for markets is that investors appear to be pricing in a more complex and potentially riskier geopolitical landscape.

$65,000 becomes the repeated momentum failure point

Against that backdrop, BTC’s upside attempts appeared limited by the $65,000 level. Traders described Monday’s price behavior as another test without follow-through, reinforcing the idea that the market is waiting for a catalyst or shift in flows before treating this price area as support rather than resistance.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X that the $65K level had capped price “for the entirety of July so far.” In a separate X reply, Daan noted that the more time BTC spends around that region, the higher the odds the level eventually breaks—particularly given that “higher lows” were allegedly being formed over the previous three weeks. The framing suggests a gradual build in underlying demand, even if breakout attempts have repeatedly stalled.

What bulls are watching after a breakout signal

While price struggled to move higher, multiple traders pointed to the high-$60,000s as the area that could change the market’s structure. Daan Crypto Trades suggested the next upside objective sits just above $67,000, describing it as the point where BTC/USD would “break into a bullish market structure.”

Other participants also linked their outlook to the idea that time spent near a key level can precede a decisive move. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe told his roughly 819,000 followers on X that markets “feel like” they are in a summer break—an observation traders often associate with thinner liquidity and fewer large swings, rather than a guaranteed lack of direction.

In a separate post, Van de Poppe gave a BTC target range of $67,500 to $69,000 for the coming weeks. He previously indicated that August could offer even higher levels, up to $80,000, a price last seen in mid-May—an important reference point because it anchors the bullish thesis to a prior market high area rather than only a short-term bounce.

Taken together, these views converge on a similar “decision zone”: if BTC can move past $65,000 decisively and follow through into the $67,000–$69,000 region, traders appear more likely to treat the move as a broader shift rather than a routine rebound.

Seasonality and macro factors: the tension investors should monitor

The current situation highlights a common tension in crypto markets: technical levels and trader positioning are pushing toward upside scenarios, but macro conditions remain mixed. On one side, the recurring rejection at $65,000 suggests nearby buyers are present yet not strong enough to force an immediate breakout. On the other, reports of aggressive hedge-fund selling in US tech and ongoing geopolitical friction keep risk sentiment fragile.

Even with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq modestly higher at the time of writing, the “record pace” narrative around hedge-fund selling implies that the market may be vulnerable to additional shocks—especially if volatility rises again or correlations between BTC and risk assets strengthen.

What happens next will likely depend on whether BTC’s repeated contact with $65,000 is followed by a structural shift above it, or whether the market simply continues to oscillate under the ceiling while traditional markets remain cautious.

Traders are likely to focus on whether BTC can reclaim and hold levels in the mid-to-high $60,000 range, while watching for signs that equity risk appetite is stabilizing—or deteriorating further given the tech sell-off narrative and the energy/geopolitical backdrop.