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Key macro data puts crypto markets on watch as CPI, PCE and Fed speak

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Key macro data puts crypto markets on watch as CPI, PCE and Fed speak

Crypto and stock markets face a packed macro week, with CPI, PCE, Fed minutes and spending data set to test rate‑cut bets after mixed inflation and rising tensions.

Summary

  • January CPI eased to its lowest core reading since 2021, briefly lifting crypto before gains faded.
  • Markets now focus on retail sales, durable goods, PCE and Fed minutes to gauge rate‑cut timing.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum stay volatile as geopolitical risks and macro uncertainty cap risk appetite.

Financial markets are preparing for several key economic data releases this week that could influence cryptocurrency and stock prices, following mixed signals from last week’s inflation data.

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January’s Consumer Price Index came in slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at 2.38% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.5%, marking the lowest level since early 2021, according to government data. The figures initially boosted stock and cryptocurrency markets on Friday, though cryptocurrency gains retreated over the weekend.

Traditional U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the President’s Day holiday. The ADP employment update is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by the January Retail Sales report. Wednesday will bring consumer spending data with the delayed December Durable Goods Orders numbers, along with Federal Reserve meeting minutes and 10 central bank speaker events.

The December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, considered a key indicator by the Federal Reserve, is expected to be released later this week. Goldman Sachs raised its PCE outlook following the January CPI data, estimating that the core PCE price index rose 0.40% in January, according to reports. The economists attributed the projection to rising consumer electronics and IT prices, which carry heavier weighting in PCE calculations than in CPI. A global shortage of RAM and storage components, driven by AI data center demand, has contributed to increased computer and component prices.

The CME Fed Watch Tool shows a 90% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the Federal Reserve‘s March meeting, according to current market pricing.

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Cryptocurrency markets have declined in the past 24 hours, with total market capitalization falling. Bitcoin retreated from recent highs during early Asian trading on Monday and has remained rangebound for the past ten days. Ethereum prices have fallen sharply, while alternative cryptocurrencies have continued to decline.

The Kobeissi Letter noted that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated, cautioning that volatility could continue this week.

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The Old Stablecoin Playbook Doesn’t Apply Anymore: Here’s What Banks Need to Know Now

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Paxos says regulated stablecoins must meet strict reserve and capital standards to operate in the U.S. market. 
  • Stablecoins function as payment rails and settlement infrastructure, not as direct replacements for bank deposits. 
  • Global corporations are now using stablecoins to move millions of dollars in minutes instead of days across borders. 
  • Banks that issue or custody stablecoins can turn a perceived competitive threat into an entirely new revenue stream.

 

The old stablecoin playbook doesn’t apply anymore, and banks are beginning to take notice. The introduction of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Congress has pushed financial institutions to reconsider long-held assumptions about stablecoins.

What was once dismissed as a crypto-trader tool has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar market. Banks that continue operating on outdated beliefs risk falling behind fintechs and blockchain-native competitors. The regulatory and commercial landscape has fundamentally shifted.

Outdated Assumptions About Regulation and Risk No Longer Hold

For years, banks treated stablecoins as unregulated, high-risk instruments sitting outside traditional finance. That view no longer reflects reality.

Jurisdictions including Singapore, the European Union, and the United States have established clear frameworks for stablecoin issuance and custody.

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The GENIUS Act adds further structure, making regulated stablecoins the only viable path forward in the U.S. market.

Regulated issuers like Paxos already operate under strict reserve management standards and capital requirements. Consumer protections are built into these frameworks, reducing institutional risk considerably.

Banks can now engage with stablecoins knowing that legal guardrails are firmly in place. The compliance infrastructure that once seemed absent is now well established.

The old playbook also treated stablecoins as threats to financial stability. That assumption, too, has aged poorly. Paxos stated thatwell-regulated stablecoins actually enhance financial stability by increasing transparency, speed and efficiency.”

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On-chain stablecoin transactions are publicly auditable in real time, offering transparency that traditional interbank transfers cannot match.

Paxos further noted that “reserves held in short-term Treasuries are safer than many bank assets.” Banks clinging to outdated risk narratives are working from an incomplete picture.

Global regulatory bodies are aligning on oversight standards at a steady pace. Updating that picture is now a strategic necessity, not just an operational preference.

Banks That Rewrite the Playbook Stand to Gain the Most

The old stablecoin playbook also cast stablecoins as deposit killers threatening bank lending capacity. Paxos pushed back on that directly, stating that stablecoins serve as rails for payments, settlement and capital efficiency in ways that deposit accounts cannot.”

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Banks can issue or custody stablecoins themselves, turning a perceived competitive threat into a growth product. Just as electronic payments once seemed disruptive, stablecoins can expand balance sheets when embraced strategically.

Stablecoins now power cross-border remittances, tokenized asset settlement, and on-chain capital markets at scale. Global corporations are moving millions of dollars in minutes rather than days using stablecoin infrastructure.

Paxos confirmed that “asset managers use them as cash legs for tokenized assets and broker-dealers are leveraging them to create new revenue streams.”

These are not theoretical use cases — they are active, high-volume applications already reshaping global finance.

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Paxos was direct in its assessment, saying that “financial institutions that deny this reality are ignoring the signals of market transformation.”

Banks that update their thinking can unlock faster settlement, improved liquidity management, and entirely new client offerings.

The old narrative that stablecoins were only for crypto exchanges has been overtaken by market reality. Those that don’t adapt may find competitors have already claimed that ground.

Paxos summed up the broader shift clearly: “Stablecoins are not a threat to banking — they are an evolution of money that can make banks more competitive.” The window to rewrite the playbook remains open, but it continues to narrow.

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Banks that move now can help shape how stablecoins integrate with traditional financial infrastructure. Those that wait may find the terms of that integration have already been set by others.

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Stablecoins Gain Ground for Paychecks and Daily Spending, BVNK Report

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Crypto Breaking News

A cross-border snapshot from BVNK and YouGov shows stablecoins moving from niche crypto wallets into mainstream payroll and everyday spend. The online survey, conducted in September and October 2025 among 4,658 adults who currently hold or plan to acquire cryptocurrency across 15 countries, reveals a broad willingness to use dollar- and euro-pegged coins for earnings, remittances, and purchases. Key findings include that 39% already receive income in stablecoins, 27% use them for daily payments, and average holdings sit around $200 globally, rising to roughly $1,000 in higher-income economies. The data also suggests strong demand for wallet access via banks or fintechs and for linked debit card usage.

Key takeaways

  • 39% of survey respondents report earning income in stablecoins, with 27% using stablecoins for everyday transactions, highlighting a shift from speculative trading to functional payroll utilities.
  • Respondents hold an average of about $200 in stablecoins worldwide, while holdings in high-income economies average near $1,000, indicating material savings potential for more affluent users.
  • 77% would consider opening a stablecoin wallet with their primary bank or fintech provider, and 71% express interest in a linked debit card to spend stablecoins, signaling traditional financial institutions’ potential pivotal role.
  • People receiving stablecoin income report that stablecoins constitute roughly 35% of their annual earnings on average; cross-border transfers with stablecoins save about 40% in fees compared with traditional remittance methods.
  • Ownership is highest in lower- and middle-income economies, with Africa showing the strongest uptake at 79%, underscoring a regional tilt toward cost-effective digital payments.

Market context: The findings arrive during a wave of regulatory attention and enterprise adoption around stablecoins. In the United States, the GENIUS Act is shaping the policy debate on stablecoins and embedded finance, while Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is catalyzing compliance-driven use cases for wages and cross-border settlements. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market has surged to roughly $307.8 billion in total value, up from around $260.4 billion in mid-2024, underscoring growing scale and willingness to use digital currencies for non-speculative purposes.

A BVNK spokesperson emphasized that the study was designed to illuminate usage patterns among current and prospective crypto users rather than measure broad population adoption. The respondents tend to diversify across multiple dollar- and euro-pegged stablecoins rather than relying on a single issuer, suggesting a preference for multi-token liquidity management. When it comes to where to manage these assets, exchanges are favored by 46% of respondents, followed by crypto-enabled payment apps (like PayPal or Venmo) at 40% and mobile wallet apps at 39%. Only a minority—13%—prefer hardware wallets for custody.

BVNK, a London-headquartered company founded in 2021, built its business around stablecoin-enabled payments infrastructure for enterprises. In June, it partnered with San Francisco-based Highnote to introduce stablecoin-based funding for embedded-finance card programs, signaling a broader push to integrate digital assets into everyday financial services. The collaboration aims to streamline funding flows for card programs that rely on stablecoins as a settlement medium, reducing friction for merchants and employers alike.

An ecosystem narrative is emerging around payroll and cross-border payments. In the United States, the GENIUS Act has accelerated discussions about how payrolls can be paid with digital assets within a regulated framework, while Europe’s MiCA framework pushes providers toward transparent disclosures and robust consumer protections. The combination of regulatory clarity and corporate experimentation is accelerating the adoption of stablecoins in payroll workflows and cross-border settlements, as businesses seek faster settlement cycles and lower costs. The underlying stability of pegged coins makes them more reliable for wage payouts and reimbursements than traditional crypto assets with heightened volatility.

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Beyond payroll, the market is advancing toward regulated, enterprise-grade integrations. For instance, Deel announced on Feb. 11 that it would begin offering stablecoin salary payouts through a collaboration with MoonPay, starting with workers in the United Kingdom and European Union and later expanding to the United States. Under the arrangement, employees can opt to receive part or all of their wages in stablecoins to non-custodial wallets, with MoonPay handling conversion and on-chain settlement while Deel continues to manage payroll and compliance. MoonPay has been positioned as the on-ramp for gateway conversions in this setup.

On the enterprise side, the pace of consolidation continues. Paystand recently acquired Bitwage, a platform focused on cross-border stablecoin payouts, a move that broadens Paystand’s B2B payments network for digital-asset settlements and foreign exchange capabilities. Paystand notes that its network has already processed more than $20 billion in payment volume, reflecting growing demand from businesses for stablecoin-enabled settlement and liquidity management. The deal signals that corporate back offices are increasingly viewing stablecoins as a legitimate, scalable settlement layer rather than a speculative vehicle.

While the strict price stability of stablecoins—tied 1:1 to fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar or euro—addresses volatility concerns for payments, the research also hints at ongoing diversification. Respondents indicated a tendency to hold multiple stablecoins rather than relying on a single issuer, a pattern that could complicate compliance and liquidity management for institutions that serve as on/off ramps for ordinary users. DefiLlama’s data reinforces the point: the stablecoin sector has grown rapidly to hundreds of billions in market capitalization, underscoring that stablecoins are no longer peripheral to crypto markets but are becoming central to payment rails and cross-border transfer ecosystems.

As this secular shift unfolds, questions remain about the pace of mainstream adoption and the regulatory guardrails that will shape long-term viability. The GENIUS Act and MiCA are not just about consumer protection; they are about enabling compliant, bankable use cases for digital assets in payroll, benefits, and enterprise settlement. The rise of payroll-focused stablecoins, in particular, could help workers in regions with limited banking access and high remittance costs participate more fully in the digital economy, while offering employers a more cost-efficient and auditable method of payroll settlement.

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What to watch next

  • Regulatory developments around the GENIUS Act and the US approach to stablecoins as payroll instruments (timeline updates and potential amendments).
  • Progress of Europe’s MiCA implementation and how financial institutions integrate stablecoin-based payroll and cross-border payments within the regime.
  • Deel’s rollout of stablecoin payroll in the UK/EU and subsequent US rollout timelines, along with adoption metrics and employee uptake.
  • Paystand’s continued integration of Bitwage and the broader adoption of enterprise-grade stablecoin settlement across global B2B networks.
  • Regional variations in stablecoin ownership, particularly in Africa and other emerging markets, and how these dynamics influence merchant acceptance and wallet adoption.

Sources & verification

  • BVNK-YouGov survey methodology: online fielded in September–October 2025 across 15 countries with 4,658 respondents who currently hold or plan to acquire cryptocurrency.
  • Survey findings on income in stablecoins, everyday use, and average holdings, including the 39%/27% figures and the $200 global average (rising to ~$1,000 in high-income economies).
  • Banking/fintech adoption metrics: 77% would open a stablecoin wallet with their primary bank or fintech provider; 71% interested in a linked debit card.
  • Enterprise movements: Deel’s stablecoin payroll pilots with MoonPay; Paystand’s acquisition of Bitwage and its impact on cross-border settlements.
  • Regulatory context and market size: GENIUS Act references and MiCA, along with DefiLlama’s stablecoin market capitalization data.

Stablecoins move from wallets to payroll: how a global survey maps the shift

The report’s narrative centers on a pragmatic shift in how people interact with digital assets. Stablecoins are increasingly viewed not as a speculative instrument but as a practical tool for earning, paying, and moving money across borders. In the 4,658-person sample, a substantial portion already earns in stablecoins, and a growing share uses them for routine payments. The implication for merchants is equally striking: more than half of crypto holders have made purchases specifically because a merchant accepts stablecoins, and the propensity to spend stablecoins rises to 60% in emerging markets. This suggests a feedback loop where consumer demand for stablecoin-enabled checkout can spur broader merchant adoption and, in turn, drive demand for compliant, scalable on-ramps and off-ramps.

From a banking and fintech perspective, the data hints at a possible reorientation of product design. If 77% of respondents would consider opening a stablecoin wallet with a bank or fintech and 71% want a linked debit card, incumbents may respond with regulated wallets, insured custodianship, and seamless settlement rails that reduce friction for wages and cross-border payroll. The fact that a meaningful share of earnings already comes in stablecoins points to a future where payroll providers, payroll tech platforms, and banks co-create wage ecosystems that can operate inside regulatory constraints while offering on-chain settlement where appropriate. The partnership of BVNK with Highnote to embed stablecoin funding into card programs signals how the industry is pursuing this convergence, aligning corporate cards with stablecoin liquidity as a basic building block of embedded finance.

Beyond payroll, the story touches on regulatory readiness. The GENIUS Act and MiCA collectively push the market toward standardized disclosures, consumer protections, and clear tax and accounting treatments for stablecoins used in wages and cross-border payments. In this environment, the operational and technological investments—such as Deel’s stablecoin payroll via MoonPay and Paystand’s acquisition of Bitwage—reflect a broader trend of enterprises rethinking how digital assets can underpin scalable, compliant financial operations. The data also underscores a geographic dimension: ownership and usage skew higher in Africa and other lower- and middle-income economies, suggesting that stablecoins could play a critical role in expanding financial access where traditional rails are costly or fragile.

As the market grows, so does the importance of robust, verifiable data. The DefiLlama figure placing the stablecoin market around $307.8 billion reinforces that stablecoins have transcended their early-stage, speculative perception. They are increasingly intertwined with the actual plumbing of payments—settlement, remittance, and payroll—where speed, cost, and regulatory compliance are essential. While the path to full mainstream adoption remains uneven across regions and assets, the convergence of consumer demand, enterprise infrastructure, and regulatory clarity paints a credible trajectory for stablecoins to become an integral part of everyday financial life. For stakeholders—whether individuals earning in the digital currency economy, merchants seeking lower-payment friction, or institutions building the next generation of compliant digital finance—this survey provides a map of where trust, convenience, and policy align to unlock real-world value.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Polygon Tops Ethereum In Daily Transaction Fees Over The Weekend

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Polygon Tops Ethereum In Daily Transaction Fees Over The Weekend

Polygon has posted higher daily transaction fees than Ethereum over the past three days, with an analyst pointing to robust user activity on prediction market Polymarket.  

According to the latest data from Token Terminal, Polygon raked in $407,100 worth of transaction fees on Friday, compared to Ethereum’s $211,700, with the data indicating this is the first time Polygon has ever flipped Ethereum in daily transaction fees. 

Average daily fees over the past 30 days on Ethereum and Polygon. Source: Token Terminal

The gap has since narrowed, with daily transaction fees on Polygon at $303,000 on Saturday, while Ethereum saw about $285,000. 

Polygon is home to Polymarket, one of the most prominent prediction markets to emerge from the blockchain sector that launched in 2020. 

In an X post on Monday, Matthias Seidl, the co-founder of Ethereum analytics platform growthepie, highlighted Polygon’s recent activity growth, saying that it has been “fully driven by Polymarket.”

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Seidl shared a chart showing that Polymarket had accounted for just over $1 million worth of fees on Polygon over the past seven days, with the next highest app on the L2 being Origin World, which accounted for around $130,000. 

Source: Matthias Seidl

Polygon has also highlighted surging activity on Polymarket. In an X post on Saturday, the team noted that over $15 million worth of wagers were placed on a single Oscars market category alone, adding that “Polygon is the chain underneath it” all. 

Polygon says there’s also a strong network of trustless agents being deployed on the L2 to “tap opportunities” on the prediction market.