BitMine Chairman Tom Lee has identified BMNR as the US-listed stock most closely tied to Ethereum, citing an 80% correlation while predicting that ETH will outperform Bitcoin during the current cycle.

Fundstrat said in a Friday post on X that its study covered 17 companies with market values above $2 billion, giving stock investors a list of publicly traded businesses that have moved closely with Bitcoin or Ethereum.

BitMine Immersion Technologies led the Ethereum group with a correlation of 80%, while Coinbase ranked second at 74%. Among stocks linked to Bitcoin, Strategy recorded the highest reading at 78%, followed by Coinbase at 74%.

Lee said he expects Ethereum to beat Bitcoin during the present cycle because tokenization and AI applications could create demand for Ethereum’s network. In his view, the two uses matter more than the themes that supported ETH during earlier market cycles.

The post did not disclose the period used to calculate the correlations or explain whether Fundstrat measured daily, weekly, or monthly returns. Correlations also change as prices and market conditions change, meaning the figures describe the relationship found in Fundstrat’s dataset rather than a fixed link between each stock and the corresponding cryptocurrency.

BitMine stock gives investors an indirect route to Ethereum

BitMine’s position at the top of the list follows its decision to build the world’s largest corporate Ethereum treasury. As of Aug. 16, the company held 5,815,164 ETH, 210 Bitcoin, $78 million in cash and marketable securities, and investments in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings.

Using an ETH price of $1,893, BitMine valued its combined crypto, cash, securities and other investments at $11.4 billion. The company said its Ethereum position represented 4.8% of the token’s stated 120.7 million supply, placing it 96% of the way toward its target of owning 5%.

During the week ending Aug. 16, BitMine purchased another 9,926 ETH. The company has bought Ether every week since adopting its Ethereum treasury strategy on June 30, 2025, according to its latest update.

An Aug. 10 treasury update previously covered by crypto.news showed BitMine holding approximately 5.81 million ETH after another 7,391-token purchase. At that time, the company had also repurchased three million BMNR shares under a $4 billion authorization.

BitMine added another 1.7 million shares to its repurchases during the following week, taking the total since July to more than 20.8 million. Lee said management considered the common shares undervalued, although that assessment represents the company’s view rather than an independent valuation.

BMNR closed at about $22.72 on Aug. 21, gaining roughly 5.3% during the session. Coinbase rose around 7.5%, while Strategy added about 5.9%, as Bitcoin and several large altcoins advanced during the same trading period.

Ethereum staking has become central to BitMine’s model

Of BitMine’s 5.82 million ETH, 5,067,309 tokens were staked as of Aug. 16. The amount represented about 87% of the company’s Ethereum holdings and was valued at $9.6 billion using the price cited in its announcement.

Based on a seven-day annualized yield of 2.61%, BitMine projected around $250 million in annual staking revenue from the position. The company said potential annual rewards could reach $287 million after its remaining ETH is staked through its MAVAN platform and external partners.

Staking gives BitMine a source of revenue that Strategy cannot generate from its Bitcoin holdings because Bitcoin does not use a proof-of-stake system. BitMine’s estimates, however, depend on Ethereum’s staking yield, ETH’s market price, validator performance and the amount of company-owned Ether placed into staking.

The company also joined the Russell 1000 large-cap index on June 26, giving US fund managers and benchmark-tracking products another route to obtain indirect Ethereum exposure. BMNR trades on the New York Stock Exchange, while its 9.5% Series A perpetual preferred stock trades under the ticker BMNP.

Compared with a spot Ethereum ETF, BMNR carries risks tied to its operating costs, capital decisions, share issuance, staking activity, and other investments. Its market value can also trade above or below the value of the ETH and other assets held on its balance sheet.

Tokenization supports Lee’s Ethereum thesis

Lee has described tokenization as one of the main reasons Ethereum could gain against Bitcoin. In BitMine’s Aug. 17 update, he said the ETH/BTC ratio had risen to 0.02994 and moved above a long-running downward trend.

Earlier ETH/BTC analysis showed the ratio testing resistance near 0.0286 in July after recovering from an early June low around 0.026. The ratio measures how much Bitcoin one Ether can buy, so a rising reading indicates that ETH is gaining value against BTC.

According to Lee, Ethereum’s relative gains during earlier cycles were supported by initial coin offerings in 2017 and 2018, NFTs in 2020 and 2021, and stablecoin adoption in 2025. He expects Wall Street tokenization and blockchain-based AI agents to support the next period of ETH outperformance.

RWA.xyz data offered additional context for the tokenization argument. As of Aug. 21, the analytics platform tracked 2,267 real-world assets on Ethereum and $13.99 billion in RWA transfer volume over 30 days, an increase of 20.45%.

The same database placed the stablecoin market value on Ethereum at $157.11 billion, with 26.6 million holders and $1.55 trillion in 30-day transfer volume. Tokenized-asset platforms listed on the network included Ondo, Securitize, Circle, Tether, and Sky.

Wall Street involvement has also extended beyond companies holding ETH. BlackRock, JPMorgan, and several asset managers have developed or tested tokenized funds, collateral products, and settlement services that use Ethereum or networks compatible with its software.

US Ethereum ETFs show signs of institutional demand

US-listed exchange-traded funds have provided another measure of demand from investors who prefer regulated brokerage products. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $365 million in net inflows during July, while spot Bitcoin ETFs received $205 million.

The July result was Ethereum funds’ strongest month on record and the first time their monthly inflows exceeded Bitcoin ETF inflows by more than two to one, according to a recent ETF flow review. On July 23, Ethereum products received $72.64 million, compared with $68.99 million for Bitcoin funds.

Ethereum ETFs added another $53.75 million on Aug. 4, followed by $202 million over the next three trading days. During July, the ETH/BTC ratio rose by about 11%, moving from roughly 0.027 to 0.030.

AI applications form the second part of Lee’s forecast. Ethereum.org says blockchain-based agents can control wallets, execute transactions, interact with smart contracts and use stablecoins to pay for computing resources, data and application access.

Ethereum.org also describes the technology as experimental and warns users to exercise caution. Agent activity does not guarantee demand for ETH because applications can use other blockchains, layer-2 networks, or off-chain payment systems.

Lee has pointed to Robinhood Chain as one example of financial and blockchain services coming together. The Ethereum layer-2 network uses ETH for transaction fees and sends its final transaction records to Ethereum, while Robinhood reported 27.4 million funded customers at the end of the first quarter.

Within weeks of its July launch, the network had recorded almost $9 billion in cumulative decentralized-exchange volume, $431 million in locked assets and more than 250,000 daily active users, according to Robinhood Chain data. More than 80% of its early exchange volume came from memecoins, while temporary fee waivers reduced trading costs during the network’s first 90 days.

Galaxy Research has said the SEC’s proposed Reg Crypto framework could give hundreds of existing tokens a formal route out of investment contract status.

Galaxy Research, in an Aug. 21 analysis, said the proposal could replace years of uncertainty over when an investment contract tied to a token ends with a filing and a recorded date.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, said the first visible effect could be the resolution of securities-law questions surrounding tokens already in circulation, rather than a fresh wave of public token sales.

The SEC estimated that about 475 issuers would file transition reports under the investment contract safe harbor each year. By comparison, the agency expects approximately 130 annual offerings across the proposal’s two new fundraising exemptions.

According to Galaxy, the difference suggests that existing projects may have more immediate use for the exit process than new issuers have for the fundraising routes.

“Reg Crypto could provide meaningful regulatory clarity, but only Congress can make that clarity durable,” Thorn said.

Reg Crypto could give legacy tokens a formal exit

Under the proposal, the safe harbor would apply to a crypto asset that is not itself a security but was issued or sold as part of an investment contract. The framework would not cover tokenized stocks, bonds, or arrangements combining tokens with equity or another security.

An issuer could use the safe harbor after completing or permanently ending all essential managerial work promised to buyers. The issuer must also stop making new promises to perform such work and file a transition report with the SEC.

Once the requirements are met, the related investment contract would be treated as terminated under the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act. The token could continue to exist and trade without remaining tied to the original contract.

Galaxy described the framework as a workable legal model for a token’s lifecycle because the investment contract could begin when the asset is issued and end after the issuer’s promised work is finished. Unlike corporate stock, the token would not carry permanent securities treatment solely because it was once distributed through an investment contract.

Issuers would drive the process by filing Form TR and certifying that they met the conditions. An earlier comparison of the frameworks noted that the SEC would retain the power to challenge a certification.

Projects would not need to have used either the Reg Crypto fundraising exemption to seek the safe harbor. Galaxy said the standalone route is therefore relevant to tokens issued years before the proposal, including assets whose legal position has remained unsettled through regulatory speeches, enforcement settlements and court cases.

The SEC estimates that preparing a standalone transition report would require an average of 30 burden hours, including work performed by outside professional service providers. Galaxy said the expected workload means most issuers would probably need legal or compliance support to complete the process.

Two exemptions would open token sales to US investors

Alongside the safe harbor, Reg Crypto proposes two exemptions from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933.

As crypto.news previously reported in its coverage of the $75 million exemption, the startup route would allow an issuer to distribute up to $5 million in covered investment contracts during a maximum four-year period. The one-time exemption would require public filings at the beginning and end of the period.

A second route, modeled on Regulation A, would contain two tiers. Tier 1 would permit an issuer to raise up to $20 million in 12 months, while Tier 2 would raise the ceiling to $75 million during the same period.

Offerings under the second route would require SEC qualification, financial statements, and continuing reports. Tier 2 issuers would also need audited financial statements and substantial organizational, management, and asset ties to the United States.

For unaccredited investors, the purchase limit would equal 10% of annual income or net worth, whichever figure is higher. Galaxy said the provision would give US retail buyers lawful access to qualifying token distributions while imposing a defined exposure limit.

Covered investment contracts sold through either exemption would not be restricted securities under the proposal. Unless the issuer added a separate contractual restriction, buyers could resell them immediately without a federal holding period.

Galaxy identified the lack of a resale lockup as a potentially important feature for projects that want tokens to circulate among users instead of remaining with venture investors. The research firm also noted that issuers would accept detailed disclosure and reporting duties in return for that flexibility.

Token disclosures would differ from stock filings

Rather than relying only on disclosure rules written for corporate shares, Reg Crypto would require information tied to how digital assets operate.

Issuers would need to disclose token supply, release schedules, minting and burning systems, governance arrangements, and smart contract permissions. Required information would also include source code, the structure of the project’s ecosystem, development promises, and progress toward completing them.

Galaxy said the list addresses information that token buyers use when assessing a project but that may not appear in a conventional equity filing. Token ownership does not necessarily give buyers the voting, dividend or liquidation rights attached to corporate stock, making supply controls and smart contract access more relevant to the investment decision.

Even with the new pathways, Thorn questioned how many projects would choose the fundraising exemptions. Rule 506 under Regulation D already permits uncapped offerings without an SEC qualification process or continuing public reports, although it does not offer the same public distribution route to non-accredited buyers.

Offshore structures could present another obstacle for larger offerings. According to Galaxy, token projects often use overseas foundations for governance, treasury management and tax planning, while the larger Reg Crypto exemption would require much of the issuer’s organization, management and assets to sit in the United States.

The startup exemption does not impose the same US incorporation condition. Galaxy said smaller domestic offerings could therefore use the $5 million route more readily, despite its lower ceiling.

SEC rules would leave part of the market unresolved

Reg Crypto would preempt state registration and qualification requirements for covered primary offerings and certain secondary transactions, provided that the issuer remained current with its obligations. The state antifraud authority would continue to apply.

The proposal does not establish rules for exchanges, brokers, dealers, or custodians. It also does not determine whether a token that leaves investment contract status becomes a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s supervision.

A separate analysis of Reg Crypto found that the safe harbor could therefore remove SEC treatment without assigning the token to another federal regulator. The CLARITY Act would address that question through legislation dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC.

Galaxy warned that an agency rule could also be changed by a future commission. Federal legislation would carry more permanence and would override any conflicting SEC rule if Congress enacted it.

The Senate has scheduled a Sept. 15 procedural test for the CLARITY Act, according to recent Senate vote coverage. The cloture motion needs 60 votes and would only allow the chamber to begin considering the bill, not approve its final passage.

The SEC published Reg Crypto in the Federal Register on Aug. 21 under docket S7-2026-27. Chairman Paul Atkins and Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda issued statements supporting the proposal, while the public comment period remains open until Oct. 20.

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above $77,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open as gold joined the crypto rally to hit 14-week highs.

Key points:

• Bitcoin and gold both hit their highest levels since May 15 against the US dollar.
• Analysis ties the strong performance firmly to US government debt policy.
• Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 before 2027 reach 48%.

Analysis: Bitcoin and gold gains not “surprise”

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling after reaching its highest levels since May 15, still up nearly 6% on the day.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold echoed the move, reaching multi-month highs of $4,632 per ounce, up 2.2% on the day at the time of writing. On a monthly basis, BTC/USD and XAU/USD were up 13% and 16%, respectively.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“What’s happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise,” market commentary The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.

Kobeissi attributed the rapid gains in precious metals and crypto to a combination of inflation, deficit spending and US Treasury policy. Record government deficit spending and the Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double the size of certain debt buyback operations to $4 billion helped drive the rally in both asset classes, Kobeissi argued.

Discussing Bitcoin’s reaction to the current macro landscape, trading company QCP Capital noted that the financial stress signals went beyond the US, highlighting surging Japanese government bond yields after a rare joint currency intervention in the yen earlier this month.

“The most notable cross-asset signal this week has been the divergence after Treasury’s announcement. Treasuries initially rallied before giving back much of the move. BTC and gold did not retrace to the same extent,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis, adding:

“That does not establish a new liquidity or monetary regime, but it does highlight the sensitivity of alternative assets to changes in long-end rates and the dollar.”

Polymarket 2026 odds of $90,000 BTC near 50%

As BTC price upside passed 20% over two days, consensus over potential targets through year-end began to improve. 

Data from prediction service Polymarket put the odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 before 2027 at 48% at the time of writing, up sharply since the start of the week.

Odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 by Jan. 1, 2027 (screenshot). Source: Polymarket

Related: Strategy Bitcoin treasury hits breakeven point as BTC price passes $77K

Some market participants, however, remained skeptical. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed that Bitcoin needed to reclaim its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,232, a trend line it rejected in January.

“Break the Downtrend and Bitcoin will confirm entry into a new technical Macro Uptrend. Reject from here however and price will maintain its series of Lower Highs,” he told X followers. 

“History suggests there’s still time for price to continue its Downtrend.”

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen expects Bitcoin to remain broadly around current levels through the end of the year despite its recent surge, citing interest rates and broader macroeconomic conditions as key factors shaping the cryptocurrency’s outlook.

Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets podcast, Chen said predicting whether Bitcoin (BTC) will finish the year above or below $70,000 is difficult, pointing to the possibility of higher interest rates as one factor that could pressure prices.

Cointelegraph host interviews Bitget CEO Gracy Chen. Source: Trade Secrets

“If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically,” Chen said, adding that BTC has become increasingly integrated with traditional finance and sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions.

“My guess is maybe around the same range,” Chen said, adding that BTC could finish the year $10,000 to $20,000 above or below current levels, which she described as her “more responsible” forecast.

Related: Bitcoin rally sends crypto stocks soaring as miners, treasury companies jump

Chen sees US Bitcoin purchases as unlikely

Chen was also skeptical that the US government will begin purchasing Bitcoin for its national reserve before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, calling such a move unlikely within the next two years.

The Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 using BTC already forfeited to the federal government, while directing officials to explore budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional BTC.

The US government currently holds an estimated 328,372 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, much of it accumulated through law enforcement seizures and asset forfeitures rather than direct purchases.

Top 5 government Bitcoin holdings. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Chen said actively purchasing Bitcoin would be a significantly bigger policy decision, requiring debate among lawmakers and political parties despite the administration’s broadly crypto-friendly stance.

“From a policy perspective, it’s probably unlikely,” Chen said. “I just don’t see it coming right now.”

Magazine: Bitcoin to $1M by 2030 is ‘mathematically impossible’ says Markus Thielen

A Hyperliquid testnet deployer using Kraken’s name has whitelisted 10 wallets and tested three compliance controls, raising the possibility that the centralized exchange has been experimenting with a permissioned HIP-3 market.

Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens reported on Aug. 22 that a deployer called “Kraken HIP-3 test DEX” had activated a permission system known as Star gating on Hyperliquid’s testnet on Aug. 19.

The deployment has added 10 wallets to its approved-user list and tested three of five compliance controls observed on the testnet, according to Devens. A validator has also been registered under the name “Kraken Exchange Validator.”

Kraken’s connection to the HIP-3 test remains unconfirmed

Devens said Hyperliquid has been adding testnet functions that could support regulated or licensed operators. Along with wallet whitelisting, the observed tools let a deployer cancel a user’s open orders, close positions through reduce-only orders, and move collateral.

Unlike an ordinary user-submitted trade, each action gives the deployer direct control over an account or position. An operator could use the functions to restrict access, respond to sanctions or legal orders, reduce risk, and remove funds from an account when its rules require intervention.

Such controls are common at centralized exchanges, where account access depends on identity checks and compliance screening. Applying them to HIP-3 would create a permissioned market that still uses Hyperliquid’s on-chain order book and settlement infrastructure.

In her post, Devens asked whether Kraken could become “the first compliant HIP-3 deployer,” but she also noted that the name does not prove Kraken’s participation. Hyperliquid’s testnet allows permissionless deployments, meaning an unrelated user could create a market or validator carrying the exchange’s name.

Neither Kraken nor Hyperliquid had publicly confirmed a partnership or test when this report was written. The available evidence, therefore, shows that a Kraken-branded deployment exists and has used the new controls, not that Kraken created it.

How Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework works

HIP-3, short for Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 3, allows independent builders to operate perpetual futures markets through HyperCore, the network’s trading engine. HyperCore supplies the order book, matching system, margin functions, and liquidation process, while each deployer selects its markets and trading rules.

As crypto.news previously explained, HIP-3 has been active on mainnet since Oct. 13, 2025. A builder must stake 500,000 HYPE to operate an independent perpetual exchange without approval from Hyperliquid’s core team.

Deployers choose the listed assets, price oracles, collateral, margin requirements, leverage limits, and funding settings. The first three assets can be introduced without an auction, while later listings require deployers to compete through a Dutch auction.

The 500,000 HYPE stake acts as a financial bond. Validators can slash it if a deployer manipulates an oracle or breaks market rules, and the requirement remains in effect for 30 days after the operator closes its markets.

HIP-3 deployers also receive 50% of the fees from their markets. According to the July 3 report, HIP-3 open interest had surpassed $1.43 billion, while contracts tracking equities and commodities had become seven of Hyperliquid’s 10 largest markets by trading volume.

Permissioned functions would modify one important part of that model. Although anyone could still deploy a HIP-3 market after meeting the protocol requirements, a deployer using Star gating could limit trading on its own market to approved wallets.

Such an arrangement could allow an operator to combine public blockchain settlement with identity checks, location restrictions, or other account-level rules. Whether the functions will reach the mainnet, and under what conditions, has not been confirmed.

Kraken has expanded regulated and on-chain markets

The testnet name has attracted attention partly because Kraken and its parent company, Payward, have spent 2026 adding securities, tokenized assets and on-chain trading services.

On Aug. 18, the exchange launched U.S. stock trading for eligible customers across the European Economic Area. The service covers more than 7,000 traditional U.S.-listed stocks, over 700 xStocks, and more than 600 crypto assets through one account.

Payward Europe Digital Solutions, a Cyprus investment firm authorized under the European Union’s MiFID II framework, provides the conventional stock service. Kraken said xStocks had generated more than $38 billion in transaction volume since the tokenized products launched in June 2025.

Earlier in 2026, the company introduced xChange, an on-chain execution system initially supporting more than 70 tokenized equities across Ethereum and Solana. Kraken later allowed eligible customers outside the United States to use selected xStocks as collateral for futures and margin positions.

Payward has also been taking the product beyond U.S. equities. Through a July agreement with trading infrastructure company GTN, it plans to add shares from Hong Kong before moving into the United Kingdom, Europe, South Korea, and other approved markets, subject to local licenses.

Devens cited Hyperliquid’s work involving xStocks and Payward’s recent business activity as reasons the test might be connected to Kraken. Her assessment remains an inference based on the names and timing rather than confirmation from either company.

U.S. derivatives rules would still limit access

For U.S. users, a permissioned HIP-3 deployment would not by itself make on-chain perpetual contracts legally available. Commodity derivatives offered to American retail traders generally must operate through entities registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

An Aug. 3 review of CFTC crypto oversight found that regulated crypto derivatives venues in the United States operate through designated contract markets, clearing organizations, and registered intermediaries. The agency approved the listing of a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract on a registered exchange in May 2026 and issued guidance covering continuous trading, clearing and settlement.

The CFTC has also pursued offshore derivatives platforms that served U.S. customers without registration. Wallet screening and order controls could help an operator enforce geographic restrictions, but the functions do not replace registration or other legal requirements.

Risk controls also matter because HIP-3 deployers select their own price sources and market settings. On July 28, a Hyperliquid contract tracking SK Hynix shares fell 17.9% intraday after a single unusually low trade on South Korea’s NextTrade entered the contract’s oracle system.

The SK Hynix contract was operated by Trade.xyz under HIP-3. One share changed hands at 1.272 million won, 29.96% below the previous close, before the underlying price recovered from the isolated transaction. HyperInsight said the on-chain contract fell from about $1,128 to $927 and later returned above $1,100.

Trade.xyz retained responsibility for the oracle, leverage rules and settlement process, while Hyperliquid’s documentation allowed the deployer to halt trading, change open-interest limits or settle the market. The operator had not published its final incident report when the July 28 coverage appeared.