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Khamenei’s death raises questions about Trump’s China trip

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What's next after the joint military operation in Iran

A monitor plays footage of US President Donald Trump announcing US and Israeli strikes against Iran in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — Uncertainty is growing over U.S. President Donald Trump‘s high-stakes trip to China after Washington targeted a second foreign leader in two months.

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Trump announced over the weekend that joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In early January, the U.S. also captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their residence.

Analysts say those actions could complicate Trump’s high-stakes trip to Beijing.

“President Xi Jinping won’t feel easy about the death of the top leader of Iran,” said George Chen, partner at The Asia Group, noting Beijing’s relatively good relations with Tehran and Caracas.

“How can Xi feel everything is normal and alright and be prepared to welcome Trump to visit in [a] happy mood?” he said. Chen added that “investors should manage their expectations on what Trump can achieve for his China trip — if he still goes.”

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Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2, following a fragile trade truce with China reached in late October. It would mark the first trip by a sitting U.S. president since 2017.

But Beijing has yet to confirm the dates.

China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Khamenei’s killing and called it “a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security.” Beijing urged for an immediate ceasefire, although it was less direct about the U.S. role than it had been after Maduro’s capture.

“I worry the U.S. side might use Iran, if it’s going poorly, to delay the trip,” said a foreign business executive tracking meeting preparations very closely, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

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“I think the risk [of the trip falling apart] is on the U.S. side more than the Chinese side,” the executive added.

What's next after the joint military operation in Iran

U.S.-based prediction markets signaled a greater likelihood of a delayed Trump trip.

As of late Monday morning, Polymarket showed a sharp drop in expectations that Trump would visit China by March 31, to 42%, from 83.9% on Feb. 21, while wagers on a visit by April 30 remained high at 81%.

Kalshi showed a slight drop in expectations that Trump would visit China by 2027, though it remained a high 91%.

While many analysts still expect the trip to proceed, it’s less clear how U.S. businesses will navigate plans for deals in the world’s second-largest economy.

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Several U.S. executives had been expected to accompany Trump on his Beijing trip, following a pattern of business delegations following leaders of different countries on their trips this year to China in a bid to strike deals.

“Prior to the attack on Iran, many American CEOs were already unwilling to go with Trump to China. Now the situation is even more tricky,” according to an active member of the American business community in China, who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The White House and China’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

The Chinese readout so far indicates an “unusually softer tone,” said Jack Lee, analyst at China Macro Group. He expects Trump to visit Beijing as planned, but is watching whether Washington signals restraint on arms sales to Taiwan.

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The democratically self-ruled island, claimed by Beijing, remains a central flashpoint in U.S-China relations.

Risks of prolonged conflict

Trump, meanwhile, told British newspaper the Daily Mail that U.S. strikes on Iran could last four weeks — a point that Chinese state media highlighted Monday morning. That timeframe would run into the planned March 31 start date for his trip to China.

“If the conflict escalates into a regional war beyond what the U.S. originally planned, it’s not impossible that Trump might delay the trip,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Still, I expect Trump and [Xi] to have a phone conversation about this at some point,” she said. Her base case remains that Trump goes ahead with his China trip later this month.

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China this week kicks off an annual parliamentary meeting, where top diplomat Wang Yi typically speaks to the press. In mid-February, Wang told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that the U.S. and China should work to expand areas of cooperation.

In foreign policy, Beijing has prioritized its own interests by forging bilateral ties while encouraging multilateral engagement. Official statements around past U.S.-China meetings have noted the need to create “conditions” for developing bilateral relations.

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The U.S. actions in Iran have eroded trust between the two countries, said Dong Shaopeng, a senior researcher at Renmin University of China. While he still expects Trump and Xi to meet in a few weeks, he said he hopes the conflict does not spread to other countries in the Middle East.

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State-affiliated Chinese columnist “Niutanqing” on Monday described the Iran “war” as more intense than the conflict in Ukraine, drawing several lessons. Of the several lessons from the turn of events, the columnist said that Khamenei’s death revealed “traitors” can emerge from within, and that negotiations may conceal the true intentions of an adversary, according to a CNBC translation of the post in Chinese.

If the Trump-Xi meeting proceeds as planned, it could offer an opportunity for broader peace talks while addressing strained U.S.-China relations.

“The issues that they have to work out, China-U.S. trade, are pretty important, and the meeting has been scheduled to be in place for a long time, and so cancelling it would be pretty radical at this point,” said Gary Dvorchak, managing director at Blueshirt Group.

“I don’t think it would … help the situation to cancel the meeting for any reason.”

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CVX Shares Surge in Early Trading as Crude Oil Soars on Middle East Turmoil

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CVX Stock Card

Quick Summary

  • CVX shares gained approximately 4% before the market opening bell on rising crude prices

  • Brent crude surged up to 13% following strikes on Middle East energy infrastructure

  • The company’s Leviathan natural gas facility was shut down after regional attacks

  • Maritime traffic slowdowns near the Strait of Hormuz sparked supply worries

  • Market participants are monitoring petroleum stockpiles and regional tensions


Chevron (CVX) shares experienced upward momentum during Monday’s premarket session as crude oil prices rallied sharply following fresh military strikes across the Middle East.


CVX Stock Card
Chevron Corporation, CVX

The stock advanced around 4% in early morning trading as oil markets responded to renewed supply uncertainty and reduced maritime activity near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The rally came as both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures posted significant gains.

Brent reached a peak increase of 13% during the opening moments before moderating somewhat as the session progressed.
Energy sector equities rallied swiftly as market participants factored in regional supply threats.

Chevron concluded Friday’s trading session at $186.76, posting a 1.41% increase.
Early Monday activity pushed the stock toward $194 as petroleum prices continued climbing.

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Exxon Mobil alongside other prominent energy firms also experienced premarket gains.
The energy sector outperformed even as broader indices faced headwinds.

Supply Disruption Fears Fuel Oil Rally

Crude prices rocketed higher after recent strikes hit critical energy infrastructure and maritime passages throughout the Middle East.
Trading resumed with markets pricing in elevated risk premiums for potential supply interruptions.

Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike.
The installation has daily processing capacity of approximately 550,000 barrels, industry sources indicate.

Market observers characterized the attack as a significant escalation targeting crucial Gulf energy assets.
Maritime operations near the Strait of Hormuz experienced slowdowns in the wake of the strikes.

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Approximately 20% of worldwide petroleum supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Any impediment to transit through this waterway can rapidly influence global energy pricing.

Petroleum markets are currently responding to Gulf region events and shipping patterns.
Industry experts noted that price trajectories will depend significantly on disruption duration.

OPEC+ recently authorized a 206,000 barrel per day production boost beginning in April.
Traders emphasized that this supply addition remains modest when weighed against present geopolitical uncertainties.

Chevron’s Regional Exposure and Market Outlook

Chevron maintains significant exposure to regional events through its Middle East operations.
Israel’s Energy Ministry mandated temporary shutdowns of domestic natural gas production following the strikes.

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Chevron’s operated Leviathan offshore gas field went offline in response to the attacks.
Industry sources attributed the closure to elevated security concerns.

The company’s financial performance correlates strongly with oil and gas pricing trends.
Elevated energy prices typically bolster upstream revenue for integrated producers.

Energy equities rallied broadly across the sector as petroleum prices advanced.
Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips similarly registered substantial premarket increases.

Market participants are tracking whether Hormuz shipping volumes normalize in coming days.
Attention is also focused on potential resumption timelines for Israeli natural gas operations.

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Domestic traders await Wednesday’s weekly petroleum inventory figures from regulators.
The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to publish the data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

CVX shares maintained premarket gains as oil markets continued processing supply concerns and operational interruptions stemming from Middle East developments.

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Crypto ETPs Post $1B Inflows as Bitcoin Leads Gains

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Crypto ETPs Post $1B Inflows as Bitcoin Leads Gains

Crypto investment products recorded their first weekly inflows since January last week, snapping a five-week outflow streak of around $4 billion.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted $1 billion in inflows last week, led by $882 million into Bitcoin (BTC) funds, according to a Monday report from CoinShares.

“From a macro standpoint, it is difficult to attribute the shift in sentiment to a single catalyst,” said James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research.

He said the reversal likely reflected prior price weakness, a break below key technical levels and renewed accumulation by large Bitcoin holders.

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“At a more anecdotal level, recent client discussions have been almost entirely focused on identifying entry points rather than reducing exposure to the asset class,” he added.

Ether and Solana add $171 million in weekly crypto inflows

Ether (ETH) funds drew about $117 million, CoinShares said, marking their strongest week since January, while Solana (SOL) drew in about $54 million.

Chainlink (LINK) and XRP (XRP) followed with $3.4 million and $2 million in inflows, respectively.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by asset as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Despite the renewed demand, Bitcoin and Ether ETPs remain in negative territory for the year, with net outflows of $408 million and $430 million, respectively.

Related: Bitcoin manipulation claims face pushback as ETFs snap 5-week outflow run: Finance Redefined

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In contrast, Solana and XRP products have posted year-to-date inflows of $156 million and $153 million.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lead with $787 million in inflows

Regionally, ETP flows were broadly aligned, with the United States accounting for the bulk of inflows at $957 million. Canada, Germany and Switzerland recorded inflows of $34 million, $32.7 million and $28 million, respectively.

Most of the gains came from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which drew $787.3 million last week, snapping a five-week outflow streak that had totaled more than $3.8 billion, according to SoSoValue.

Weekly flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs since Jan. 2, 2026. Source: SoSoValue

Despite the renewed inflows, total assets under management in crypto ETPs declined to $127.7 billion from $130.4 billion the previous week.

Net assets in Bitcoin ETFs also fell, slipping to $83.4 billion from $85.3 billion a week earlier.

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