For many traders, the “altseason” playbook has relied on a familiar pattern: profits from Bitcoin flow into smaller tokens, sparking broad-based rallies across the market. But new on-chain and market-structure indicators suggest that mechanism is weakening—and that could meaningfully change how altcoins move in the next phase of the cycle.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says the Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trade has “basically disappeared,” citing data that shows BTC-pair altcoin trading activity has fallen to its weakest levels since 2021. At the same time, the altcoin market appears more concentrated, with fewer large-cap tokens commanding most of the sector’s value—another factor that may reduce the breadth of any future rally.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant data cited by Ki Young Ju shows BTC-pair altcoin trading volume has dropped to post-2021 lows, weakening the usual rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins.
• Altcoin liquidity and capital are increasingly concentrated in fewer projects, which can delay or limit broad “altseason” style moves.
• Bitcoin dominance is showing early signs of a rebound that could keep capital favoring BTC over smaller tokens in the near term.
• The next phase of altcoin strength may depend less on “narrative-only” momentum and more on tokens tied to real usage and revenue themes.

Why the classic rotation trade is fading

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, argues that the traditional “Bitcoin pumps, then alts catch up” sequence is no longer behaving the way it did during prior bull cycles. In a Saturday post on X, he said the Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared,” pointing to CryptoQuant data that tracks aggregated altcoin trading volume for BTC-priced pairs.

That metric focuses on mid- and lower-cap altcoins traded against Bitcoin on centralized exchanges, explicitly excluding major assets such as Ether (ETH), XRP, BNB, and Solana (SOL). In other words, it attempts to measure whether traders are using BTC as the funding source for speculative positions in smaller coins.

Historically, that type of flow intensified during two key periods—2017 and again in 2021—helping set the conditions for some of the most aggressive alt rallies. But the chart Young Ju referenced suggests BTC-pair altcoin activity remains near post-2021 lows, implying that Bitcoin is no longer serving as the primary liquidity engine for broad alt speculation.

“The era of alts pumping just because BTC pumps may be over,” Young Ju wrote, framing the slowdown in rotation as a potential structural shift rather than a short-term pause.

More money, fewer tokens

Beyond rotation, the composition of the altcoin market also appears to have changed. Young Ju pointed to increasing concentration across the non-BTC, non-stablecoin segment. Using figures reported for Saturday, the non-BTC, non-stablecoin market value was roughly $600 billion, while the top 10 non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about $483 billion—around 80.5% of the total.

That implies that instead of value spreading across a wide range of assets, the market’s center of gravity is moving toward a smaller set of larger names. When capital is clustered, rallies often become less uniform, with fewer tokens capturing most of the upside.

The narrowing of large-cap altcoins has also been highlighted by CoinMarketCap snapshots. According to a 2021 historical snapshot referenced in the source, there were roughly 106 altcoins above $1 billion in market valuation at that time. By June 2026, that number had fallen to around 50, suggesting that the pool of sufficiently large assets to dominate flows has shrunk materially.

Young Ju connects those trends to a broader maturity in the market. He also said in a separate thread that “narrative-only altcoins” are losing relevance as crypto develops, arguing that hype alone is no longer enough to sustain sustained attention across the board.

While that doesn’t mean the altcoin market is disappearing, it suggests a different kind of cycle—one where fewer projects benefit from most of the capital and where investor demand may be driven by more concrete fundamentals.

What themes could matter more than broad alt hype

Young Ju’s argument is not simply that altcoins are weaker; it’s that the strongest pockets of the market may be linked to areas with clearer business models and real-world utility. In his view, stronger activity is tied to revenue-generating decentralized finance, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and AI agent-related applications.

That framing matters for traders because it changes the selection problem. If rotation into the entire alt market is less reliable, performance may hinge on identifying which tokens have genuine demand drivers rather than relying on “market beta” from broad speculation.

It also implies that the next alt cycle—if it arrives—may look different from the older playbook. Instead of a sweeping move across many names, the cycle could be characterized by narrower leadership tied to specific sectors where usage and adoption can compound.

Bitcoin dominance could be a near-term headwind

Another factor potentially limiting altcoin momentum is a rebound in Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market. The source cites Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) showing early signs of a lift after interacting with its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA) and the lower trend line of an ascending channel at around the 58.75% level, according to a weekly chart on TradingView.

In the same setup, BTC.D could rise toward the channel’s upper trend line near 60% if momentum continues. If BTC.D moves higher toward that level, the implication is straightforward: Bitcoin would be gaining market share relative to the rest of crypto, which can divert speculative liquidity away from smaller assets.

Analyst Rekt Capital shared a similar perspective on X, citing bullish divergence on Bitcoin dominance. The divergence described in the source follows a common technical interpretation: BTC.D making lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows, often signaling weakening downside pressure and the potential for a rebound—hence the view that “altseason is postponed.”

Rekt Capital, however, also warned that the upside may not be unlimited. He suggested the dominance rebound could represent a post-breakdown relief move before further weakness returns, with a bearish case pointing to BTC.D possibly drifting toward its 200-week EMA at around 57%.

For alt traders, the practical takeaway is that even if smaller coins find their footing, a strengthening BTC dominance trend can cap how broad and how fast alt rallies spread—particularly in the early stages of any rotation attempt.

As rotation signals remain weak and market leadership looks increasingly concentrated, investors may want to watch two things closely: whether BTC-pair altcoin volume starts to recover from its post-2021 lows, and whether BTC dominance sustains its rebound or rolls over again. The answers to those questions will likely determine whether any alt rally becomes broad-based—or stays confined to a narrower group of assets with more durable demand.

Adoption of Solana increases as institutional investment in blockchain infrastructure goes beyond merely investing in crypto products to actual integration.

The Institutional Engagement Has Gone Beyond Investment Exposure

There has been growing traction of Solana as financial institutions turn their attention toward blockchain technology and infrastructure rather than investing in digital assets. The emergence of credit assessments in relation to blockchain technology, along with interest from established financial entities such as Moody’s, points to a gradual shift in perception about decentralized blockchain technology from traditional financial institutions.

For decades, public blockchains have been associated with speculation and diversifying investments. The focus of traditional financial institutions centered on the risk factors and regulatory issues associated with blockchain technology. This shift indicates that institutions are recognizing the usefulness of blockchain in practice.

Traditionally, credit ratings have been used to assess companies, bonds, and sovereign debts. The increased use of these terms in blockchain contexts demonstrates that institutions are starting to assess decentralized blockchain technology using conventional financial risk management models. It shows more engagement than exposure to crypto-assets alone.

Rather than just asking whether digital assets can be invested in, institutions are now looking at whether blockchain technologies can sustain key operations of financial institutions.

Advantages of Solana in the Blockchain Infrastructure Arena

Among prominent blockchain projects, Solana is one of the top candidates expected to be adopted by financial institutions. Its main advantages include high transaction capacity, low costs, and rapid finality, making it well suited for applications that need scalable infrastructure.

Over the past several years, the Solana network has developed in DeFi, gaming, NFTs, and, finally, in tokenizing real-world assets. These processes have turned Solana from an instrument of investment into a working layer of the digital economy.

Institutional adoption of Solana does not relate to custody services and trading anymore. At the moment, some financial companies are considering integrating blockchain infrastructure into their business processes. This means building a payment network, issuing platform, and settlement infrastructure on the blockchain level. All these processes require careful planning, significant industry knowledge, and compliance with regulations.

Market Dynamics Illustrate Resilience of Networks Over Time

The history of Solana’s performance on the market has been characterized by cycles of rapid growth followed by a decline typical of other players in the cryptocurrency industry. When conditions were bullish, the price of SOL previously soared above $200, while total market capitalization reached dozens of billions of dollars due to an increased influx of funds.

As expected for any other digital asset, Solana’s valuation dropped during the bearish period due to reduced risk appetite and lower liquidity in the industry. Nevertheless, the network continued developing actively despite this period.

During subsequent recovery phases, Solana’s valuations grew rapidly, with market capitalization soaring above previously observed levels to exceed $100 billion. While the latest correction has negatively impacted this momentum, valuations are still much higher than during the bearish period. This illustrates changing investor perception of Solana, shifting from short-term prospects to long-term perspectives.

The Part Solana Will Play in the Future of Blockchain Infrastructure

The increasing use of Solana signals a shift happening across the blockchain industry. As organizations transition from exploration to real incorporation, networks that can provide reliable and efficient infrastructure are becoming more prominent. Regardless of market turbulence, Solana is establishing its position in this new environment.

Cryptocurrency traders are no longer using Bitcoin (BTC) profits to buy altcoins as they did in previous bull cycles, raising doubts about whether a broad “altseason” can return.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has collapsed to its weakest level since 2021.
• Altcoin capital is increasingly getting concentrated in fewer projects, delaying the altseason.

Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared”

The old altseason trade is no longer working the way it did in previous bull cycles, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

In a Saturday post, Ju said the Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared,” citing CryptoQuant data showing BTC-pair altcoin trading volume has collapsed to its weakest levels since 2021.

Aggregated altcoin trading volume for BTC-priced pairs. Source: CryptoQuant

The metric excludes major altcoins such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB) and Solana (SOL), focusing instead on mid- and lower-cap altcoins traded against Bitcoin on centralized exchanges.

In simple terms, it shows whether traders are using BTC to buy smaller altcoins.

That flow surged in 2017 and 2021, helping fuel record altseasons. But Young Ju’s chart shows BTC-pair altcoin volume remains near post-2021 lows, suggesting Bitcoin is no longer the main liquidity source for altcoin speculation.

“The era of alts pumping just because BTC pumps may be over,” Young Ju said.

Altcoin capital is now concentrated in fewer tokens

The wider altcoin market has become more concentrated, excluding stablecoins.

As of Saturday, the non-BTC, non-stablecoin crypto market was worth roughly $600 billion. The top 10 non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about $483 billion of that total, or roughly 80.5%.

TOTAL crypto market excluding Bitcoin and all stablecoins. Source: TradingView

The number of large market-cap altcoins has also fallen sharply since the last bull cycle.

In 2021, roughly 106 altcoins had above $1 billion in market valuation, according to CoinMarketCap’s historical snapshot. That number fell to around 50 in June 2026.

This echoes Young Ju’s argument that capital is no longer spreading across the altcoin market the way it did in 2021. The market has not disappeared, but it is being comprised of fewer large altcoins.

In a separate thread, Young Ju said that “narrative-only altcoins” are losing relevance as the market matures.

Source: X/Ki Young Ju

Young Ju said hype alone is no longer enough. The stronger areas, he added, are tied to real businesses, revenue-generating DeFi, stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and AI agents.

That suggests the next altcoin cycle may be less about rotating into the whole market and more about finding tokens that can find applications and users across the aforementioned fields.

BTC dominance rebound may have “postponed” altseason

Bitcoin’s crypto market dominance (BTC.D) is also showing early signs of a rebound, which could delay a broader altcoin rally.

The BTC.D metric has bounced from its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA, purple) and the lower trend line of an ascending channel, both aligning at the 58.75% level.

BTC.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

It could rally toward the channel’s upper trend line near 60% if momentum persists.

A move toward 60% would mean Bitcoin is gaining market share against the rest of crypto. In market terms, that suggests capital may continue rotating from altcoins back into BTC, limiting the chances of a near-term altseason.

Analyst Rekt Capital shared a similar view, pointing to a bullish divergence on Bitcoin dominance, which suggests that the “altseason is postponed.”

BTC.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/Rekt Capital

A bullish divergence forms when the metric makes lower lows while its RSI makes higher lows. It often signals weakening downside momentum and a potential rebound.

Related: Altcoin selling tops $266B as capital rotates out of crypto: Is altseason extinct?

Nevertheless, Rekt Capital said Bitcoin dominance’s upside may be limited because the metric has already lost its macro uptrend. He said the current bounce may act as a post-breakdown relief rally before further downside.

Bitcoin’s dominance may drop toward its 200-week EMA at 57% if Rekt Capital’s bearish scenario plays out.

TLDR:

• Mastercard and Visa are building stablecoin settlement rails for issuers and payment networks.
• Five major US banks plan a tokenized deposit network targeted for early 2027 launch.
• DTCC’s tokenization service spans 50+ firms, with RWA trades starting in July 2026.
• Standard Chartered’s Zodia Custody deal strengthens institutional digital asset custody offerings.

Wall Street’s institutional embrace of blockchain is accelerating, with Citi, Mastercard, Visa, DTCC, and several major banks now testing infrastructure for stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and settlement.

These moves signal a shift from trading-focused crypto exposure toward core financial plumbing, reshaping how money and assets move across global markets.

Payments and Deposits Drive Early Adoption

Stablecoin settlement has become a focal point for payment networks. Mastercard said in June it would add stablecoin settlement options for issuers and acquirers, while Visa is testing private stablecoin settlement with Brale on the Canton Network, a privacy-focused blockchain built for institutions.

Banks are pursuing a parallel approach centered on tokenized deposits. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and The Clearing House are planning a bank-led tokenized deposit network targeted for the first half of 2027, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Retail banking is also entering the space. SoFi launched its own SoFiUSD stablecoin on its retail banking platform and named Bullish as its first centralized exchange partner. The company’s leadership framed this as removing a long-standing barrier between crypto and traditional finance.

As CoinMarketCap noted in its coverage, Wall Street is entering the next phase of institutional crypto adoption, moving beyond trading desks and exchange-traded funds into core financial infrastructure. This shift extends well past payments into asset management itself.

Tokenization Reaches Private Markets and Fund Products

Private market access is expanding through tokenized structures. Citi launched Digital Depositary Receipts for private-company shares in June, creating a new way for investors to access private markets, amid rising demand for exposure to high-profile IPO candidates.

Fund products are following a similar path onchain. BlackRock has filed to expand its tokenized fund suite following the 2024 launch of BUIDL, its first tokenized money market fund.

Separately, Ondo Finance, Kinexys by J.P. Morgan, Mastercard, and Ripple completed a pilot to redeem a tokenized US Treasury fund on blockchain rails in May.

Equities are also moving toward tokenized formats. Coinbase has outlined plans to offer tokenized US equities to non-US customers, while Kraken’s parent company, Payward, has pushed tokenized IPO access through xStocks.

Behind these products, infrastructure providers are building the systems that support settlement and custody at scale.

DTCC said in May it was rolling out a tokenization service with more than 50 financial firms, with initial limited production trades for select tokenized real-world assets planned for July and a broader launch targeted for October.

Custody infrastructure is consolidating as well. Standard Chartered said in May it would acquire Zodia Custody’s crypto custody business and fold it into its own infrastructure, deepening its digital asset capabilities.

Industry observers describe this custody layer as essential groundwork. Ripple and Quinlan & Associates wrote in a February report that digital asset custody forms the foundational layer underpinning all digital asset use cases for financial institutions.

Together, these developments point toward blockchain becoming embedded in everyday financial operations, moving money, issuing securities, and settling transactions across major institutions.

TLDR:

• OpenAI’s 2025 net loss hit $38.5 billion despite revenue tripling to $13.07 billion overall.
• Uber, Amazon and JPMorgan now restrict employee AI usage after costs spiraled unexpectedly.
• Anthropic and OpenAI filed confidentially for IPOs, both targeting valuations near $850 billion.
• Chinese models DeepSeek and Kimi undercut Anthropic and OpenAI pricing in benchmark cost tests.

Anthropic and OpenAI are pushing toward public markets while facing mounting questions about AI spending sustainability.

OpenAI posted a $38.5 billion net loss in 2025, even as revenue tripled to $13.07 billion. Rising pay-per-token costs have prompted major employers to limit staff usage, raising doubts about near-term profitability for both companies.

Enterprise Costs Spark Internal Crackdowns

Several large corporations have begun restricting employee access to AI tools after expenses climbed sharply. Uber reportedly exhausted its 2026 AI budget by April and now caps spending at $1,500 per employee monthly.

Amazon told staff to avoid using AI tools without clear purpose, following reports that engineers ran automated agents to climb internal usage leaderboards.

JPMorgan circulated an internal memo this month addressing excessive AI spending across departments. Some employees reportedly generated AI bills exceeding their own monthly salaries.

These examples reflect a broader pattern among companies that adopted AI tools aggressively over the past two years.

One pricing shift illustrates the scale of the problem. Workato saw its Anthropic bill increase 700% in a single day after the company moved from flat-rate to pay-per-token pricing in May.

Workato’s chief information officer said earlier subsidized pricing had encouraged widespread adoption before actual costs became visible.

IPO Timing Collides With Spending Concerns

Anthropic and OpenAI filed confidentially for public offerings this month, both reportedly targeting valuations near $850 billion.

Neither company has reached profitability, and OpenAI’s losses nearly tripled year over year. In 2024, the company lost $5.09 billion, a figure that grew to $38.5 billion in 2025.

This timing creates friction for both firms as they court investor confidence. Public offerings typically require evidence of sustainable revenue growth, yet enterprise clients are simultaneously scaling back usage. The same trend driving corporate cost-cutting threatens the growth narrative needed for successful IPO valuations.

OpenAI is reportedly considering token price reductions to retain customers shifting toward Anthropic’s offerings. According to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic’s Claude Code product helped push annualized revenue from $9 billion to $47 billion within five months. That growth has intensified competitive pressure between the two firms.

Competitive Pricing Pressure Intensifies From Chinese Models

Artificial Analysis tested major AI models on identical benchmark tasks, comparing total operational costs. Anthropic’s flagship model cost $4,811 to complete the test suite, while OpenAI’s model cost $3,357 for the same workload.

Chinese alternatives showed substantially lower costs in the same testing. DeepSeek completed the benchmark for $1,071, while Kimi finished for $948.

These figures suggest Chinese developers prioritize cost efficiency over matching premium-tier performance metrics.

Bain surveyed nearly 1,000 companies regarding AI return on investment, finding that 40% reported actual cost savings below 10%.

One investor told Axios that a corporate finance officer spent $500 million on Claude access in a single month before anyone noticed.

As Anthropic and OpenAI prepare investor pitches, enterprise customers are demonstrating measurable resistance to current pricing structures.