Bitcoin’s price action is looking increasingly like it has followed the blueprint of prior market cycles, according to new technical research circulating this week. One analyst argues BTC is “compressed” below a longer-term adoption structure, while another set of estimates suggests the current bear-market leg may be only partly finished—and could face renewed pressure around August if key monthly levels fail.

Together, the commentary points to a market that may not be “broken,” but is still working through historical patterns that have often dictated the next directional shift for BTC over multi-month horizons.

Key takeaways

• Analyst David Eng says Bitcoin remains cyclical, tracking both a 400-day clock and a longer four-year “adoption structure” trend line.
• Eng’s framework places a four-year fair-value target near $76,400, implying BTC is trading below that level and therefore “compressed.”
• Rekt Capital estimates the ongoing bear market is about 71% complete, based on historical analogs.
• Rekt Capital is watching the 50-month EMA near $63,900; a monthly close around $62,000 would be treated as a possible breakdown signal.
• If July improves but fails to hold, Rekt Capital warns August could negate any upside and bring further downside continuation.

Two-cycle timing: “not broken,” but compressed

In a Wednesday post on X, analyst David Eng described Bitcoin’s behavior as running on “two clocks.” The shorter cycle, he said, is linked to a 400-day simple moving average (SMA), while the longer cycle filters out “noise” and highlights a structure tied to adoption over multi-year periods.

Eng pointed to the 400-day SMA as a recurring support level during previous bull markets, noting that this cycle has not seen daily candle closes below the average, echoing how prior runs behaved. On the four-year time frame, he argued a cleaner uptrend becomes visible, with price shifting above and below the trend line depending on where the market is in its cycle.

The practical takeaway from Eng’s thesis is that Bitcoin repeatedly stretches away from the longer-term adoption structure and then reverts toward it—rather than moving in a straight line. In his view, that means the current conditions reflect compression beneath the structure instead of a structural failure.

Eng also calculated that the four-year trend line currently implies a “fair price” around $76,400. He framed BTC as undervalued by roughly 20% relative to that estimate. In addition, Eng referenced Bitcoin’s Power Law trajectory, suggesting it is now entering territory approaching $135,000—an observation he used to reinforce the idea that the broader cycle framework remains intact.

“It is compressed below its adoption structure.”

When monthly closes matter: the 50-month EMA test

While Eng focused on longer-horizon cycle structure, another analyst—Rekt Capital—has been looking at how bear-market history typically evolves after key moving averages are challenged. In his latest commentary, Rekt Capital put the current downtrend at around 71% complete, referencing his own historical comparison work.

A central part of that monitoring centers on Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), which he described as currently sitting near $63,900. For traders, the distinction between an intramonth move and a confirmed monthly close is important: Rekt Capital’s scenario depends on what the market does at the month’s end.

He suggested that if the June monthly close resembles a trade around $62,000, it would “confirm the breakdown” from the 50-month EMA. In his framing, a subsequent month that turns positive could then potentially convert the 50-month average into new resistance—turning a former support reference into a ceiling.

“August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin into downside continuation.”

Why a “compressed” market can still signal tension

Eng’s “compressed” characterization and Rekt Capital’s caution about possible continuation are not necessarily contradictory. Eng’s framework emphasizes that Bitcoin can remain cyclical even when it is trading below a longer-term adoption structure; the compression can persist as the market works through transitional phases of the cycle. Rekt Capital, meanwhile, is concerned with the near-to-medium-term path that often determines whether a bear market grinds lower before eventually bottoming.

That overlap matters for investors because it highlights two different risk windows. In Eng’s view, BTC is still reverting toward the longer-term framework; in Rekt Capital’s view, the next steps depend on whether the market successfully holds key moving-average terrain—particularly around the 50-month EMA region.

For traders, this creates a practical monitoring checklist: not just where BTC trades intraday, but whether monthly closes confirm or negate moving-average breakdown narratives. If the market does not follow through on a breakdown, the downside thesis weakens; if it does, historical patterns may reassert themselves on the timeline Rekt Capital laid out.

What to watch next

The key near-term variable is how BTC behaves around the cited monthly level dynamics—especially whether June’s end-of-month close confirms weakness relative to the 50-month EMA, and whether any July strength can persist or gets reversed in the way Rekt Capital expects for August. Beyond that, Eng’s longer-cycle “fair value” reference around $76,400 may become a useful benchmark for assessing whether compression is merely a pause or the start of a broader repricing.

For centuries, banks have acted as the primary gatekeepers of lending. Whether individuals needed a mortgage, businesses required capital, or entrepreneurs sought funding, traditional financial institutions controlled access to credit. However, advances in blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi) are challenging this model by enabling lending without banks.

As digital assets, smart contracts, and decentralized networks continue to evolve, a new financial ecosystem is emerging—one where borrowing and lending can occur directly between participants without relying on centralized intermediaries. This shift has the potential to reshape global finance and expand access to capital on an unprecedented scale.

How Traditional Lending Works

In the conventional banking system, financial institutions perform several critical functions:

• Evaluating borrower creditworthiness
• Managing deposits
• Issuing loans
• Collecting repayments
• Earning profits through interest spreads

While this system has supported economic growth for decades, it also presents challenges:

• Lengthy approval processes
• Geographic limitations
• High operational costs
• Limited access for the unbanked
• Dependence on centralized decision-makers

Millions of people around the world remain excluded from traditional credit systems despite having the ability and willingness to repay loans.

The Rise of Decentralized Lending

Decentralized lending platforms leverage blockchain technology and smart contracts to automate the lending process. Instead of relying on banks, these systems allow users to supply liquidity and earn interest while borrowers access capital directly from decentralized pools.

Smart contracts automatically handle:

• Loan issuance
• Collateral management
• Interest calculations
• Liquidation processes
• Repayment tracking

Because these functions are executed by code, many administrative costs and inefficiencies can be reduced.

Key Advantages of Bankless Lending

1. Global Accessibility

Anyone with an internet connection and a compatible wallet can participate in decentralized lending markets. Geographic restrictions and banking infrastructure become less relevant.

This opens opportunities for:

• Emerging economies
• Remote communities
• Freelancers
• Digital entrepreneurs
• Underbanked populations

2. Faster Loan Processing

Traditional loans often require extensive documentation and approval periods.

Blockchain-based lending can provide access to funds within minutes through automated smart contracts, significantly improving efficiency.

3. Greater Transparency

Every transaction is recorded on a public blockchain, allowing users to verify:

• Interest rates
• Available liquidity
• Loan terms
• Platform activity

Transparency reduces information asymmetry and increases trust in the system.

4. Continuous Market Availability

Unlike banks that operate during specific hours, decentralized lending markets function 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Borrowers and lenders can interact at any time without waiting for business hours or regional banking schedules.

5. Reduced Intermediary Costs

By removing multiple layers of administration and oversight, decentralized systems can potentially offer more competitive rates for both borrowers and lenders.

The Evolution Beyond Collateralized Loans

Most current decentralized lending systems require borrowers to provide collateral worth more than the loan itself. While effective for risk management, this model limits accessibility.

The future may introduce more sophisticated approaches:

On-Chain Credit Scoring

Blockchain activity can serve as an alternative credit history.

Factors may include:

• Transaction history
• Wallet longevity
• Repayment behavior
• Governance participation
• Asset management patterns

These data points could help establish digital reputations and unlock undercollateralized lending opportunities.

Decentralized Identity Systems

Emerging identity frameworks aim to allow users to prove trustworthiness while maintaining privacy.

This could create portable credit profiles that work across multiple platforms and ecosystems.

AI-Powered Risk Assessment

Artificial intelligence may eventually analyze vast amounts of on-chain and off-chain data to evaluate borrower risk more accurately.

AI-driven models could improve:

• Loan pricing
• Default prediction
• Portfolio management
• Capital allocation

Real-World Assets and Lending

One of the most promising developments is the integration of real-world assets into blockchain-based lending systems.

Assets such as:

• Real estate
• Government bonds
• Corporate debt
• Invoices
• Commodities

can potentially be represented digitally and used as collateral.

This could significantly expand the size of decentralized lending markets by connecting blockchain liquidity with traditional economic assets.

Challenges That Must Be Solved

Despite its promise, bankless lending still faces several obstacles.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Governments worldwide continue to develop frameworks for digital assets and decentralized financial services.

Clear regulations will be important for large-scale adoption.

Smart Contract Risks

Software vulnerabilities can expose users to losses if protocols are not properly audited and secured.

Security remains a critical priority.

Market Volatility

Digital asset prices can fluctuate rapidly, affecting collateral values and increasing liquidation risks.

More stable collateral options may help mitigate this challenge.

User Experience

Many lending platforms remain difficult for newcomers to understand.

Simpler interfaces and better educational resources will be necessary for mainstream participation.

What the Future May Look Like

The future of lending may not involve a complete replacement of banks but rather a transformation of how credit is created and distributed.

We may see:

• Hybrid financial systems combining traditional and decentralized infrastructure
• AI-assisted lending markets
• Global digital credit networks
• Tokenized real-world collateral
• Instant settlement and loan execution
• Portable blockchain-based credit identities

In this environment, access to capital could become more open, efficient, and borderless than ever before.

Conclusion

Lending without banks represents one of the most significant innovations emerging from blockchain technology. By leveraging smart contracts, decentralized networks, digital identity systems, and tokenized assets, the financial industry is moving toward a future where credit can flow more freely and efficiently.

While challenges related to regulation, security, and adoption remain, the long-term trend points toward increasingly decentralized lending ecosystems. As technology matures, bankless lending could become a powerful complement—or even an alternative—to traditional financial services, creating new opportunities for borrowers and lenders around the world.

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Bitcoin’s onchain activity is surging despite the asset remaining deep in a bear market.

The number of Bitcoin transactions recently climbed above 820,000 per day, according to Glassnode data. The increase comes as bitcoin trades around $62,000, roughly 50% below its October all time high, a period when network activity would typically be expected to weaken.

The transaction count is the highest since April 23 2024, the immediate aftermath of the last halving event and debut of the Runes protocol, a Bitcoin fungible token standard, which brought with it a considerable spike in transaction fees.

Similar to how ERC-20 tokens operate on Ethereum, Runes allow users to create and transfer fungible assets directly on Bitcoin.

Runes appears once again to be driving a rush in Bitcoin activity, with transactions carrying Rune protocol messages, known as Runestones, surging above 600,000 per day, also marking a two-year high, Glassnode data show.

The euro remains under pressure following weak macroeconomic data from the euro area and fresh signals that the European Central Bank is prepared to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Data released yesterday pointed to a deterioration in business activity across the eurozone’s largest economies. Weak readings from Germany and France heightened concerns about the pace of the region’s economic recovery.

Additional pressure came from comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde, which markets interpreted as more dovish than recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials. As a result, investors continue to scale back expectations for further policy tightening by the ECB.

Market participants will also focus today on Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index. Forecasts suggest the headline index may rise to 85.6 from 84.9 previously, while the Expectations Index is expected to increase to 85.0 from 83.8. Although an improvement in business sentiment could provide temporary support for the euro, investors are likely to assess the data against the broader backdrop of slowing economic activity across the euro area. Even if the figures improve, markets may view them as insufficient to alter the prevailing picture of economic cooling.

EUR/USD

Yesterday, sellers managed to break key support at 1.1400, pushing the pair to a fresh low for the year. A sustained move below 1.1400 could pave the way for a further decline towards the next support zone at 1.1310–1.1280. A move back above 1.1400–1.1420 would be the first indication that bearish pressure is easing.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany Ifo Business Climate Index;
• Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel;
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US New Home Sales.

EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD has retreated from this year’s highs near 1.6200. Technical analysis suggests the pair may decline towards the 1.6100–1.6030 area, as a bearish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. Conversely, a break above resistance at 1.6270 could trigger a resumption of the uptrend towards 1.6350–1.6400.

Key events for EUR/CAD:

• Today at 14:15 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Manufacturing Sales;
• Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories.

Overall, pressure on the euro persists amid weak eurozone data and diverging monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. If the German data fail to improve investor sentiment, both EUR/USD and EUR/CAD may extend their declines. At the same time, stronger European data or a weaker US dollar could trigger a corrective recovery in the single currency.

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South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) has moved tokenized securities deeper into a broader national program to modernize capital-market infrastructure. The regulator said it is coordinating reforms across ministries and market operators, positioning token securities not as a standalone initiative, but as part of a wider effort to improve settlement efficiency and market connectivity.

On Tuesday, the FSC launched a capital market infrastructure review meeting to align policy work with operational plans. The regulator indicated that token securities will continue to be developed through a separate public-private council, with those outcomes subsequently integrated into the broader infrastructure roadmap.

Key takeaways

• The FSC is coordinating token securities work alongside a broader capital-market overhaul, including faster settlement and longer trading hours.
• Legislation already approved by South Korea’s National Assembly recognizes blockchain-based distributed ledgers as securities registries, enabling issuance and transfer of token securities.
• The FSC expects key token securities subordinate regulations and guidelines to be released around July, with the framework scheduled to take effect in February 2027.
• Operational infrastructure is planned for completion by end-2026, including a Korea Securities Depository (KSD) system for settling certain over-the-counter transactions in unlisted shares and fractional investment products.
• Firms should monitor how the token securities framework will be implemented alongside existing investor-protection and market-integrity obligations.

Capital-market infrastructure review folds in token securities

The FSC’s decision to incorporate token securities into a wider infrastructure reform effort reflects a policy approach aimed at aligning digital assets with established market plumbing. In practical terms, this matters for compliance and operational readiness because tokenized issuance and transfer typically require integration with securities registries, settlement processes, custody models, and audit trails.

According to the FSC, the initiative includes a roadmap to shorten the securities settlement cycle, targeted for completion by October. It also includes development of a KSD system intended to handle settlement of over-the-counter trades involving unlisted shares and fractional investment products. The FSC’s timetable places that system by end-2026, preceding the start date for the token securities regime.

FSC Vice Chairman Kwon Dae-young framed the effort as part of four policy priorities: trust, shareholder protection, innovation, and market access. That set of objectives suggests regulators will seek guardrails that preserve investor protections while enabling adoption of technology, rather than treating tokenization as purely a technology experiment.

Legislative groundwork and the planned 2027 rollout

South Korea’s token securities program predates the new capital-market infrastructure review. In January, the National Assembly approved amendments that recognize blockchain-based distributed ledgers as valid securities registries. The amendments also permit the issuance and circulation of token securities, establishing the legal basis required for regulators to build implementation rules and supporting infrastructure.

Per the FSC, the token securities framework is scheduled to take effect in February 2027, contingent on completion of subordinate rules and supporting infrastructure. The FSC said it is targeting July for the release of proposed subordinate regulations and guidelines following work at the public-private token securities council.

Cointelegraph previously reported on the broader legislative direction behind South Korea’s tokenized securities laws, including their expected regulatory treatment and timeline. The FSC’s latest updates emphasize that implementation details remain under active development and will be formalized through additional consultation and rulemaking rather than immediately after the statute’s passage.

For regulated firms, the gap between legislative authorization and effective implementation rules is significant. During this period, businesses typically need clarity on operational requirements such as how token securities will be registered, validated, and reconciled with traditional securities records; what disclosure or investor-protection measures will apply; and how compliance controls will be expected to function in a distributed-ledger environment.

KSD integration and platform development for blockchain-based custody

Infrastructure planning is a core component of the FSC’s approach. The regulator has identified settlement capability through the KSD as a milestone ahead of the February 2027 effective date. The KSD system described by the FSC is intended to support settlement for over-the-counter trades in unlisted shares and fractional investment products.

Separately, Samsung SDS said in May that it won a contract to build a token securities management platform. According to reporting cited by the FSC’s broader communications, the platform is designed to connect the KSD’s existing electronic securities account system with blockchain-based data. Samsung SDS said it aims to complete the platform by February 2027, aligning its delivery with the planned launch of the token securities framework.

The FSC also noted that detailed token securities plans will continue to be discussed within the public-private council before being linked to the broader infrastructure review. This sequencing suggests regulators are attempting to coordinate “digital asset” rulemaking with the more general modernization agenda, potentially reducing the risk of parallel standards that could complicate implementation.

From a governance perspective, integrating blockchain-based data with established depository and accounts infrastructure may also shape how auditability, data integrity controls, and reconciliation processes are implemented—elements that are central to compliance monitoring and investor assurance.

Regulatory implications: investor protection, compliance controls, and cross-border considerations

While the FSC is advancing token securities through a structured timetable, several implementation questions remain relevant for compliance and institutional readiness. The amendments enabling blockchain registries and token issuance establish the legal pathway, but firms will still need to understand how regulators intend to operationalize investor protections and “trust” requirements in distributed systems.

Institutional stakeholders should also consider how token securities will interact with existing market rules governing custody, settlement finality, transfer restrictions, disclosure, and governance. Tokenization can introduce new operational risks—such as data integrity and access control—that require controls comparable to those in traditional securities infrastructure.

Cross-border activity may further complicate matters. South Korea’s approach—embedding token securities within domestic market infrastructure—does not automatically resolve differences with other jurisdictions that have distinct regulatory frameworks for tokenized instruments. For firms operating internationally, that means compliance programs may need to map how token securities obligations align (or diverge) across regulatory regimes.

In the European context, for example, MiCA provides a framework for certain crypto-asset activities, but its scope and alignment with tokenized securities rules depends on how a given product is classified. Similarly, in the United States, the regulatory landscape for tokenized securities has historically depended on securities-law analysis and enforcement posture. Even though the FSC’s initiative is a Korean domestic reform, global institutions will likely evaluate it through the lens of their existing compliance and legal risk management practices.

Closing perspective

South Korea’s FSC appears to be moving toward an integrated model in which tokenized securities are introduced alongside settlement modernization and broader market-access reforms. The next critical milestones are the public-private council’s subordinate regulations and guidelines targeting July, followed by the February 2027 effective date. Observers will likely focus on how regulators translate the legal recognition of blockchain-based registries into enforceable operational standards for custody, settlement, investor protection, and auditability.