Morgan Stanley is advising clients to hold 2%–4% Bitcoin exposure as demand for regulated crypto products grows. 

The guidance was shared by Amy Oldenburg, the bank’s head of digital asset strategy, during the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas.

Oldenburg said the bank sees client interest in Bitcoin products, but adoption through financial advisers remains slow. She said the issue is tied to education and awareness, not only demand.

Oldenburg also said Bitcoin could one day appear on U.S. bank balance sheets. However, she made clear that such a move is not close.

She pointed to Federal Reserve guidance, Basel capital rules, and global regulatory demands as key hurdles. “It’s not totally out of the question,” Oldenburg said, while adding that large banks still need more alignment across regulators.

MSBT draws early self-directed demand

Morgan Stanley has already moved further into digital assets through MSBT, its Bitcoin-backed exchange-traded product. The product drew more than $100 million in its first six days of trading.

Oldenburg said those early inflows came from self-directed clients. The product was not yet available through Morgan Stanley’s advisory platform, which showed a gap between client activity and adviser adoption.

Stablecoin fund adds another digital asset product

Morgan Stanley Investment Management also launched the Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio, a government money market fund for stablecoin issuers. The fund trades under the ticker MSNXX and went live on April 23.

The fund invests in cash, short-term U.S. Treasury bills and notes, and overnight repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries. It targets a stable $1.00 net asset value and daily liquidity.

The product is designed for stablecoin issuers that need to hold reserves in regulated assets. Crypto.news reported that the fund has a $10 million minimum investment, a 0.15% management fee, and a 0.20% net expense ratio after waivers.

Gold price is consolidating above the $2,565 support zone. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $96.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

· Gold price started a recovery wave from $4,500 against the US Dollar.

· It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,620 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.

· Crude oil prices failed to clear the $108 region and started a fresh decline.

· There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $100.45 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found bids near the $4,500 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a recovery wave above $4,550.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $4,600. The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,740 swing high to the $4,510 low.

Besides, the price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,620. Immediate hurdle is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at $4,650.

The next key breakout level sits at $4,700. An upside break above $4,700 could send Gold price toward $4,740. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,850.

Initial bid zone on the downside could be $4,600. The first major buy zone sits at $4,565. If there is a downside break below $4,565, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $4,510. Any more losses might push the price toward the $4,420 level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $108 barrier against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $105.

The price even dipped below $100 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near $96.00. A low was formed at $96.04, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face sellers near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $107.62 swing high to the $96.04 low.

The first major hurdle for the bulls could be near a connecting bearish trend line at $100.45, above which the price could rise and test the 61.8% Fib retracement level at $103.20.

Any more gains might send the price toward $105.65. The main breakout zone sits at $108. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit $96.00. The next major pivot zone on the WTI crude oil chart is $92.00.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $90.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $86.50 support zone.

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Three tests land inside one week. The first is jobs data, with April payrolls print coming, the first read after a delay caused by the 2025 federal shutdown.

A weaker-than-expected print gives the Federal Reserve cover to cut sooner. A strong one delays it. The second is additional insight into the bitcoin treasury trade.

Strategy, Coinbase, MARA, CleanSpark, Hut 8 and Core Scientific all report Q1 earnings inside the week. Riot already sold 3,778 BTC last quarter at an average $76,626. MARA sold 15,133.

The third is the Fed itself. San Francisco Fed CEO and President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speak on central bank independence at Hoover on Friday, the same week Jerome Powell exits his chair role (but not the Fed itself) under White House pressure.

“Investors aren’t heavily positioned and volatility remains low, creating an asymmetrical setup: markets appear stable on the surface but could react quickly to any catalyst that forces a repricing of risk,” Jennifer Hanny, a partner at Echo Base, told CoinDesk.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • May 4: Coinbase to delist dai (DAI) and convert remaining tokens to USDS.
  • May 4: ZKsync Lite to be fully deprecated.
• Macro
  • May 4, 11:30 p.m.: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision est. 4.35% (Prev. 4.1%)
  • May 5, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for March(Prev. 6.882M)
  • May 5, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI April est. 54 (Prev. 54)
  • May 6, 4:00 a.m.: Euro Area Producer Price Index YoY for March (Prev. -3%); MoM (Prev. -0.7%)
  • May 6, 07:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for April (Prev. 62K)
  • May 6, 06:50 p.m.: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • May 7, 07:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending May 2 (Prev. 189K)
  • May 7, 03:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for period ending May 6 (Prev. $6.700T)
  • May 8, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Unemployment Rate for April (Prev. 6.7%)
  • May 8, 07:30 a.m.: U.S. Non Farm Payrolls for April est. 73K (Prev. 178K)
  • May 8, 07:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for April est. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • May 8, 07:30 a.m.: U.S. Average Hourly Earnings MoM for April est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%); YoY (Prev. 3.5%)
  • May 8, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel for May (Prev. 49.8)
  • May 8, 06:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Presidents Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee to participate in a conference on “Independence, Structure, and Risks Ahead for Central Banks”
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • May 5: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, -$12.95
  • May 5: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.27
  • May 5: Cipher Digital (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.08
  • May 5: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, -$0.45
  • May 6: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.34
  • May 6: Core Scientific (CORZ), post-market, -$0.04
  • May 7: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $0.26
  • May 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.60
• May 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.19
• May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, -$0.23

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Lido DAO is voting on a time-sensitive proposal to temporarily lower the EarnETH first-loss protection trigger to below the standard 1% threshold, ensuring full compensation for users if the rsETH shortfall is resolved via DeFi United. Voting ends May 6.
  • Beefy DAO is voting to authorize its Treasury Council to conduct private, discretionary BIFI buybacks whenever the token’s price falls below its calculated “fair value.” Repurchased tokens will be held as non-circulating supply. Voting ends May 6.
  • World Liberty Financial is voting to restructure vesting for locked WLFI tokens. Early supporters will receive a 4-year vesting schedule, while insiders must burn 10% of their allocation and accept a 5-year vest. Voting ends May 6.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting to release 30,766 ETH frozen by its Security Council after the Kelp DAO exploit to the DeFi United recovery fund. Voting ends May 7.
  • CoW DAO is voting on whether to use its Legal Defense Reserve to reimburse users who lost $1.2 million in the April 14 cow.fi domain hijack. Voting ends May 7.
  • Mantle DAO is voting to lend up to 30,000 ETH to Aave as a structured 36-month credit facility, benchmarked to Lido’s stETH staking return plus a 1% spread, as part of the DeFi United rsETH recovery. Voting ends May 8.
• Unlocks
  • May 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.12% of its circulating supply worth $17.34 million.
  • May 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.18% of its circulating supply worth $17.5 million.
• Token Launches
  • May 5: Virtual Protocols’ OPG airdrop snapshot expected to take place.
  • May 8: SoSoValue’s final testnet airdrop expected to complete.
  • May 4-10: BNB’s 35th quarterly burn expected to occur.

Conferences

Ethereum price is eyeing a breakout from the $2,400 resistance, which has capped the token’s gains over the past week.

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price rebounded 3.5% to $2,393 on May 4 before facing rejection at $2,400 and stabilizing around $2,370 at press time. While Ethereum has briefly broken above the $2,400 mark on two occasions over the past month, the altcoin lost momentum and quickly retraced below the level.

However, at press time, several technical and fundamental factors suggest that the token could finally escape from the narrow trading range.

Notably, on the daily chart, Ethereum price is approaching a bullish MACD crossover, which typically signals a shift toward upward momentum. The last time such a positive crossover occurred, Ethereum price rose nearly 25% within a month.

The Supertrend has remained green since mid-March, a sign that the broader market structure remains in an uptrend despite recent price fluctuations.

At press time, Ethereum price was near the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at $2,381, a sign that bulls are aggressively defending the mid-range zone. A decisive break above the current resistance could trigger a breakout from the $2,400 and a move towards the next key 38.2% retracement level at $2,772 if bullish momentum holds.

Besides strong technical signals, on-chain demand also seems to support a potential rally. Data from SoSoValue show that Ethereum ETFs recorded over $100 million in net inflows last Friday, breaking off a 4-day negative streak, which saw $183 million in outflows.

While this is not yet a sign that institutional investors will go all in immediately, it shows renewed appetite for the asset, especially if the positive flows continue to show up this week.

Another catalyst that could support Ethereum’s gains is the drop in ETH balances on exchanges. Per data from CryptoQuant, Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to 14.5 million, the lowest level since mid-2016, indicating reduced selling pressure on the token.

Bitcoin breached $80,000 on Monday, rising 2.7% over a three-hour span as Asian equities began trading, marking its highest price since Jan. 31, 2026.

The Bitcoin rally began at 1:25 am UTC, rising from $78,415 to break the $80,000 level about 75 minutes later before climbing to $80,515 by 4:20 am UTC, according to TradingView data. 

Bitcoin’s price change on Coinbase on Monday. Source: TradingView

The rally coincided with a 2.3% rise in the MSCI AC Asia Index to 245.2 on Monday morning, breaking its previous high of 243.6 on Feb. 22, about a week before the US-Iran war began.

A rise in the MSCI AC Asia Index at the start of the week generally reflects positive global risk sentiment in response to weekend developments, though it doesn’t necessarily mean that US equities will follow suit.

Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and BNB (BNB) also rallied and are up 3.9%, 2.4% and 3.3% over the last 24 hours, at the time of writing. 

The price rise also comes as crypto momentum has been building in Washington, where members of the banking and crypto industries reached a compromise on stablecoin yield provisions in the CLARITY Act, with a Senate markup expected this month.

The US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also seen net inflows in 11 of the past 14 trading days, indicating that institutional demand remains strong.

Friday’s inflow of $629.8 million also marked the US Bitcoin ETF industry’s strongest day in two weeks.

Bitcoin up nearly 30% from 2026 low

Bitcoin’s climb back to $80,000 marks a nearly 30% recovery from its 2026 low of about $62,000 reached on Feb. 5, and several industry observers said there is a path for Bitcoin to reach $100,000.

Related: Strategy takes Bitcoin buying breather ahead of Q1 earnings report 

One of them is MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, who said Friday that Bitcoin does not need a fresh narrative to return to the $100,000 mark:

“There doesn’t need to be a narrative that pushes the price upwards,” he said, stating that as the price moves upwards, “the narrative will create itself.”

The crypto industry is also watching the US Bitcoin Reserve after White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas last week that a “big announcement” on President Donald Trump’s Bitcoin reserve is coming in the next few weeks. 

Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Key Takeaways

• Legendary commodities trader Peter Brandt projects Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2029.
• Brandt anticipates an extended consolidation period that may continue through September or October 2026.
• Bitcoin has already rebounded more than 25% from its February trough around $60,000.
• The projection relies on analyzing Bitcoin’s recurring four-year halving cycle patterns.
• Brandt maintains flexibility, stating he’ll adjust his thesis if market behavior deviates from historical patterns.

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Peter Brandt, a commodities trading veteran with nearly fifty years of market experience, has unveiled a comprehensive price trajectory for Bitcoin. His ultimate target stands at $250,000 by the close of 2029. However, he emphasizes that the cryptocurrency market faces considerable consolidation before initiating that major upward move.

According to Brandt’s assessment, Bitcoin is presently navigating through a bottoming formation that could persist until September or October 2026. This extended timeframe isn’t speculation. It’s derived from careful examination of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, a pattern that has demonstrated remarkable consistency throughout the cryptocurrency’s history.

In April 2024, Bitcoin underwent its scheduled halving event — reducing the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Historical data shows that bull market peaks typically emerge approximately 16 to 18 months following each halving event. Based on this framework, the most recent cycle peak occurred around October 2025, when Bitcoin reached approximately $126,000.

Understanding the Four-Year Cycle Structure

After reaching that peak, Brandt anticipates a bear market phase spanning roughly twelve months. This timeline would position a market bottom somewhere in the autumn of 2026. Subsequently, a fresh uptrend would develop heading into the April 2028 halving, potentially culminating at $250,000 during late 2029.

“I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026,” Brandt explained to CoinDesk. “It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down. Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029.”

This analysis suggests Bitcoin may trade within a range of approximately $47,000 to $80,000 for over a year before any substantial bullish momentum develops.

This perspective contrasts with many cryptocurrency analysts who believe the bear market concluded in February when Bitcoin established a floor near $60,000. Since that low point, BTC has surged over 25%, trading around $80,300 in early May 2026.

A Non-Dogmatic Forecasting Philosophy

What distinguishes Brandt from numerous market forecasters is his transparent commitment to revising his outlook when circumstances warrant. “As long as the market follows the script I will stay with my projections. If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking. I will NOT be dogmatic about it,” he stated.

This adaptive methodology represents a refreshing contrast in an environment where many analysts remain stubbornly attached to failed predictions.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $79,740, remaining considerably below its 2025 all-time high.

Coinbase has urged U.S. derivatives regulators to keep prediction markets under existing rules, filing a formal response as legal pressure builds around event-based contracts.

According to a letter submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and addressed to Secretary Christopher Kirkpatrick on April 30, Coinbase responded to the agency’s Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets, arguing that such products already fit within current statutory authority.

In the filing, Coinbase described prediction markets as “one of the most dynamic areas of derivatives markets,” while stating that no new legislative mandate is required to oversee them under existing frameworks. Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad signed the letter and called on regulators to preserve a principles-based approach that prioritises market integrity.

Shirzad told the press that event-based contracts are not a new concept and compared them to traditional futures, explaining that both mechanisms aggregate dispersed information into pricing signals. Coinbase’s submission also asked the CFTC to clarify how it intends to exercise its authority to block contracts deemed against the public interest.

Coinbase said in the letter that consistent safeguards should apply to all users, whether they trade directly on platforms or through intermediaries, adding that regulatory clarity would help maintain trust as participation expands.

The filing comes as disputes over event contracts continue to surface at the state level, including a lawsuit in Wisconsin that has added urgency to the regulatory debate. Coinbase’s position places it among firms seeking federal clarity at a time when jurisdiction between state authorities and federal regulators remains contested.

Earlier, Shirzad addressed a separate policy issue tied to stablecoin rewards during negotiations around the CLARITY Act, telling Reuters that revised language preserved “what matters” for crypto platforms while introducing limits on rewards that resemble bank interest. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks negotiated that compromise, which restricts deposit-like yields while allowing activity-based incentives tied to platform use.

With the Senate Banking Committee targeting a markup of the CLARITY Act in the week of May 11, Coinbase’s latest filing on prediction markets adds to its ongoing engagement with U.S. policymakers across multiple areas of crypto regulation.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is soliciting public input on a March-proposed rule aimed at tightening and clarifying the agency’s authority over prediction-market event contracts. More than 1,500 comments were filed as the comment window closed, reflecting a broad mix of support for clearer federal oversight and concerns that new rules could curb access or push activity into less regulated spaces.

Key takeaways

• The CFTC drew more than 1,500 public responses to its proposed rule, which would empower the regulator to amend or issue new regulations for event contracts on prediction markets.
• Kalshi and Polymarket endorsed the CFTC’s stance on exclusive federal jurisdiction, with Kalshi’s Luana Lopes Lara urging guidance to keep event contracts listed and overseen by the Commission; Polymarket’s Justin Hertzberg likewise backed strong CFTC authority.
• Industry voices such as Andreessen Horowitz supported the move, arguing that state actions to regulate or ban prediction markets threaten impartial access and the viability of CFTC-regulated platforms.
• State gambling regulators and some lawmakers pushed back, warning that prediction markets could masquerade as unregulated sportsbooks or raise questions about jurisdiction over sports and geopolitical markets.
• The debate appears amid ongoing legal tensions between federal regulators and several states, who have pursued or threatened litigation over prediction-market operations.

Federal rulemaking and the broad jurisdictional question

The public comment period centered on a CFTC proposal designed to formalize the agency’s ability to adjust or introduce regulations governing event-based contracts offered on prediction markets. The agency’s aim is to clarify oversight for products that people bet on outcomes ranging from elections to geopolitical events, by carving out a defined federal jurisdiction that some market participants say is overdue, while others worry about potential overreach into areas traditionally governed by state gambling regulators.

In the view of Kalshi, a leading prediction-market platform, the proposal could usefully supplement existing rules. Kalshi co-founder and chief operating officer Luana Lopes Lara told the commission that its current framework is “well-designed and effective,” and urged the agency to provide guidance that would ensure the universe of event contracts can continue to be listed, traded, and overseen by the Commission. Her stance reflects a desire for regulatory clarity that maintains a federal standard without stifling innovation.

A separate industry voice, Polymarket, echoed similar sentiment. Polymarket US CEO Justin Hertzberg commended CFTC Chair Mike Selig for reaffirming the Commission’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, while stressing that the regulator should continue to exercise that authority. The call for certainty here mirrors a broader industry preference for predictable rules that reduce the risk of a patchwork state-by-state regime.

Supportive voices: investors and builders weigh in

Beyond Kalshi and Polymarket, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz joined the chorus advocating for federal clarity. In a letter, the firm argued that actions by individual states to regulate or ban prediction markets can impede impartial access and raise barriers for participants who rely on predictable, federally supervised systems.

From the industry’s perspective, a stable federal framework could unlock participation from institutions and developers who have looked for consistent regulatory ground to justify scaling operations that depend on prediction-market economics. Yet supporters also recognize that clear rules must address real-world risks, including consumer protection, market manipulation, and the potential for insider knowledge to influence outcomes.

Regulators and lawmakers push back: concerns about overreach and misuse

Not everyone in the regulatory ecosystem welcomed the CFTC’s stance. Several state gambling regulators pressed back, arguing that the federal approach could obscure the line between sports betting and prediction markets, and potentially allow platforms to circumvent state oversight. Pennsylvania’s Kevin O’Toole, executive director of the Gaming Control Board, asserted that the CFTC’s position could allow prediction markets to masquerade as unregulated sportsbooks. Similarly, Mary Beth Thomas, executive director of the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council, contended that sports event contracts offered on prediction markets may fall outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction altogether and should remain under state control.

Missouri’s perspective was notably pointed. Michael Leara, executive director of the Missouri Gaming Commission, urged Congress to preserve state jurisdiction over sports-event contracts, arguing that lawmakers did not intend futures markets to embody gambling activities. Such framing highlights the friction between a federally focused approach to prediction markets and states that view these activities as intrinsically tied to traditional gambling regulation.

The debate also touched on broader policy concerns. Some lawmakers worry about the potential for prediction markets to monetize geopolitical events or to be influenced by insiders with privileged information. In a joint letter, Dennis Kelleher, CEO and co-founder of Better Markets, along with 12 consumer groups, urged the CFTC to prohibit event contracts tied to elections or geopolitical events, arguing such contracts could influence public policy or governmental action.

The intensity of state-level pushback has intersected with ongoing legal action in the federal arena. The CFTC has argued that it should hold authority over prediction markets and has pursued litigation against several states that challenged this position, signaling a deliberate effort to secure a clear federal role in this space. The tension between state sovereignty and federal oversight remains a central throughline of the current discourse.

Market implications: what readers should watch next

Looking ahead, the CFTC’s next steps will be crucial for market participants navigating prediction markets and related crypto ventures. While the proposed rule is designed to formalize federal oversight, the precise contours of the final rule—and how it will be interpreted by states and courts—remain to be seen. For traders and platform operators, the outcome could impact licensing trajectories, listing standards, and the balance between consumer protections and open access.

The broader environment also includes notable developments around insider trading restrictions and platform governance. Kalshi and Polymarket indicated in recent weeks that they have tightened insider-trading controls and restricted certain users, such as politicians, from participating in their markets. These steps may reflect a growing sensitivity to insider risks and could inform how stricter federal guidance might shape platform policies going forward. Separately, the Senate’s decision to ban its members and staff from using prediction markets has added a political dimension to the regulatory conversation, signaling that policymakers are watching how these tools are used in practice.

As the CFTC weighs public input, observers will be watching for signs of timing and substance in forthcoming guidance or a final rule. If the agency provides clearer standards on listing, trading, and oversight of event contracts, it could spur greater participation from compliant players while also clarifying the boundaries for state regulators. Conversely, if the final rule narrows federal reach or imposes onerous requirements, it could slow adoption and push certain activities toward gray areas or state-level solutions.

Readers should monitor next statements from the CFTC, any coordinated actions among states, and the evolution of platform policies around eligibility, insider trading, and dispute resolution. The outcome will help define not only the regulatory risk landscape for prediction markets but also the broader trajectory of how crypto-related derivatives and event-based instruments integrate into the U.S. financial-regulatory framework.