Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin experienced a nearly 3% decline this week, retreating from $76,000 to approximately $70,000
• Federal Reserve maintained current rates while projecting just one reduction in 2026, dampening risk asset enthusiasm
• Citi analyst reduced Bitcoin price projection from $143,000 down to $112,000 due to legislative roadblocks
• Strategy expanded its holdings by purchasing 22,337 BTC, increasing total reserves to 761,068 BTC
• Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF with planned ticker symbol MSBT

Bitcoin began the trading week with strong performance, surging to $76,000 on Tuesday — marking its peak level since the beginning of February. However, this upward trajectory proved short-lived.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the 3.50%–3.75% range on Wednesday, marking its consecutive second meeting without adjustment. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that escalating tensions involving Iran would likely elevate inflation pressures, diminishing the probability of rate reductions during the current year. The central bank’s updated projections anticipate a single rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, while increasing its PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%.

This conservative monetary approach negatively impacted risk-oriented investments. Bitcoin dipped beneath $69,000 on Thursday before bouncing back to approximately $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly decline approaching 3%.

Central Bank Messaging Pressures Markets

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed elevated both inflation and economic growth forecasts. She emphasized that the press conference centered predominantly on inflationary concerns, characterizing the overall messaging as “rather hawkish.”

Escalating crude oil values, sparked by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas infrastructure, intensified market pressures. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, commented: “Increasing energy expenses, postponed monetary easing prospects, and a strengthening dollar are fostering a more discriminating investment climate.”

The $70,000 threshold has emerged as the critical level for market participants. Analyst Iliya Kalchev from Nexo Dispatch suggested that maintaining this level “invites a stabilization trade,” whereas breaching it “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”

Banking Giant Lowers Outlook as Legislative Progress Stalls

Citi analyst Alex Saunders reduced his Bitcoin valuation target to $112,000 from the previous $143,000 projection. This adjustment stems from the Clarity Act — proposed cryptocurrency market framework legislation — encountering congressional obstacles. Probability metrics on Polymarket indicate passage likelihood has fallen to 60%, declining sharply from approximately 90% in February.

President Trump expressed on Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”

Notwithstanding the challenging week, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday that the company acquired an additional 22,337 BTC. The firm’s cumulative position currently totals 761,068 BTC, with a mean acquisition cost of $75,696.

Bitcoin spot ETF activity displayed variable patterns throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded positive flows of $201 million and $199 million respectively, while Wednesday and Thursday witnessed outflows totaling $163 million and $90 million.

Concurrently, technical analysis shared by cryptocurrency account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation on BTC charts, suggesting a possible decline toward sub-$50,000 levels should the pattern complete its breakdown sequence.

Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 registration document with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF, scheduled for NYSE Arca listing under ticker MSBT. Upon regulatory approval, this would represent the inaugural spot BTC ETF launched directly by a major American banking institution.

TLDR:

• Circle Nanopayments supports USDC transfers as small as $0.000001, removing gas fees from sub-cent transactions entirely.
  
• Transactions are aggregated offchain and settled onchain in batches, allowing throughput to scale beyond blockchain congestion limits.
  
• The non-custodial design ensures only agent-signed authorizations can move funds, keeping user control intact at all times.
  
• Nanopayments preserves full x402 v2 protocol compatibility, making integration straightforward for developers already on the standard.

Circle Nanopayments is a new infrastructure solution designed to support gas-free USDC transfers as small as $0.000001.

The system addresses a growing need in the agentic economy, where autonomous AI agents must make continuous, high-frequency payments for API calls, inference, and compute.

By aggregating transactions offchain and settling them onchain in batches, Circle has built a financial rail suited for machine-to-machine commerce at scale.

Why Traditional Payment Rails Fall Short for AI Agents

Autonomous agents operate across disparate systems and execute multi-step workflows without direct human oversight.

As they do so, they need to pay continuously and in tiny increments for digital resources. Traditional payment infrastructure was not built for this type of activity.

Fixed fees, settlement latency, and operational overhead make sub-cent payments economically unviable on most networks.

On Ethereum, for example, a $0.000001 transfer carries a fee of over 53 million percent of the transfer amount. Even low-cost chains like Solana still impose fees that dwarf the value of ultra-small payments.

Circle took to X to address this directly, stating: “The rise of AI agents demands a new payment model. Traditional rails can’t support sub-cent payments, but USDC can. With Circle Nanopayments, developers can enable gas-free USDC transfers down to $0.000001, aggregated offchain and settled onchain in batches.”

Public blockchains also face throughput and predictability challenges. Network congestion and gas market dynamics affect how quickly transactions are processed.

Pay-per-crawl use cases require reliable, high-volume capacity that public mempools cannot consistently guarantee.

Interoperability adds another layer of complexity. Buyers and sellers often operate on different blockchain networks.

To accept broad payments, merchants must either verify transactions across multiple chains or rely on a third-party facilitator. This raises the integration burden, particularly for non-crypto-native publishers.

Circle addressed these barriers through offchain aggregation. Transactions are batched together and settled onchain periodically.

This removes per-payment gas costs entirely and allows throughput to scale independently of public blockchain congestion.

How Nanopayments Works and What Powers Its Security

Circle explains the payment flow in a straightforward sequence. An agent makes a one-time USDC deposit into the Circle Gateway smart contract, which funds its available Nanopayments balance.

When the agent requests a paid resource, the merchant responds with a 402 Payment Required status and payment details.

The agent then signs an EIP-3009 authorization for the requested amount and retries the request. The merchant submits the signed authorization to Nanopayments for verification. Circle instantly validates the signature against the agent’s offchain balance and deducts the payment amount.

Settlement happens asynchronously. Thousands of signed authorizations are batched, verified inside a Trusted Execution Environment (TEE), and submitted as a single onchain transaction. The onchain contract then verifies the TEE signature before updating balances.

Circle further noted that its solution delivers “no per-transaction gas drag, predictable throughput at scale, and standardized agent-to-merchant payments,” describing it as “the financial rail for agentic economic activity.”

Nanopayments also maintains full compatibility with the x402 v2 protocol, originally developed by Coinbase. The enhancements apply only to aggregation, verification, and settlement.

The standard x402 request and response structure remains unchanged, easing adoption for developers already building on that protocol.

TLDR:

• BTQ Technologies launched testnet v0.3 of Bitcoin Quantum, marking the first live implementation of BIP 360.
  
• BIP 360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root outputs that hide public keys, reducing exposure to future quantum attacks.
  
• Bitcoin’s current ECDSA encryption could be broken by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer targeting private keys.
  
• Moving BIP 360 to Bitcoin’s mainnet requires a community-approved soft fork, with no confirmed timeline yet in place.

Bitcoin quantum resistance has taken a notable step forward as BTQ Technologies launched testnet v0.3 of Bitcoin Quantum.

This release marks the first live implementation of BIP 360, a proposed quantum-proof upgrade built for the Bitcoin network.

The testnet is now live and operational, moving the project firmly from concept to running code. Still, reaching Bitcoin’s mainnet will require a soft fork and the full support of the broader community.

How BIP 360 Addresses the Quantum Computing Threat

Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography, known as ECDSA, to protect wallets. This method has secured the network reliably for more than 15 years without a major breach.

It works much like a deadbolt lock on a front door — effective today, but not designed for quantum-era threats.

The concern, however, lies in quantum computing. A powerful enough quantum computer could reverse-engineer a private key directly from a public key.

That outcome would expose wallets across the entire Bitcoin network to theft. The risk is real, even if the technology to exploit it does not yet exist.

Crypto media outlet Milk Road addressed this risk in a social media post. It described quantum computers as a future lockpick, not yet built, but known to be in development.

The threat is widely acknowledged across the crypto industry. However, no quantum machine capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption is currently operational.

BIP 360 proposes to fix this gap by introducing Pay-to-Merkle-Root, or P2MR, transaction outputs. These outputs hide the public key from public view. This reduces the attack surface for any future quantum-based intrusion.

The proposal also sets the stage for quantum-resistant signature schemes, including Dilithium.

BTQ Technologies Testnet and the Road to Bitcoin Mainnet

BTQ Technologies moved past theory by launching a live testnet for BIP 360. The v0.3 release is described as the first of its kind for this proposed protocol upgrade.

It runs functional code in a real testing environment, not a simulation. This step signals that the project has moved well beyond the whitepaper stage.

Moving BIP 360 from testnet to mainnet, however, requires a Bitcoin soft fork. A soft fork is a backward-compatible protocol change that the broader Bitcoin network must approve. Miners, developers, and node operators all need to reach agreement before the change takes effect.

Bitcoin governance has historically been a careful and time-consuming process. Protocol changes require extensive peer review and community debate before adoption. As a result, there is currently no confirmed timeline for BIP 360 to go live on mainnet.

Milk Road noted that reaching mainnet requires the full Bitcoin community to agree on the soft fork. That process is historically slow in Bitcoin development circles.

Nevertheless, BTQ Technologies moved ahead by launching a functioning testnet rather than waiting for the threat to escalate. Tackling the problem before it becomes urgent reflects a responsible approach to long-term protocol security.

Gold slid 3.5% on Friday, trading around $4,488 per ounce, as geopolitical volatility and uncertainty in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The decline pushed the metal’s weekly drop to about 11%, the steepest weekly decline since 1983, underscoring how a risk-off environment can erode the appeal of traditional safe-havens when energy and geopolitical risks dominate markets.

From late February, when US and allied actions in the region intensified, gold has fallen more than 15%, erasing a portion of a rapid rally that had lifted prices toward the $5,500 mark in late January. TradingView data highlighted that March 16–20 marked gold’s worst-performing week since 1983, underscoring how quickly the narrative can shift in times of geopolitical strain. TradingView noted the week’s move as historically significant for the yellow metal.

Analysts say the conflict is disrupting global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, feeding fears of a prolonged energy crisis as markets weigh the balance between safe-haven demand and the impact of higher energy costs on inflation and growth. In such an environment, investors are furling into risk-off assets while considering how energy-market dynamics might influence central-bank policy in the near term.

Amid the regional tensions, US President Donald Trump said he was weighing a winding-down of some Middle East military efforts. While talk of reducing troop deployments emerged, the United States has continued to bolster its regional presence, and airstrikes in the area persisted. The evolving stance adds another layer of uncertainty for traders trying to gauge the risk premium priced into gold and other assets.

Market watchers are also focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The broader expectation remains that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for the year, which could keep fixed-income yields attractive relative to gold in the near term. In a related note, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that higher energy prices could push inflation higher in the near term, complicating the inflation trajectory and potentially influencing the demand for both gold and crypto assets as hedges or diversifiers.

Bitcoin finds footing as gold wobbles

Over the past year, gold has outperformed many traditional assets, rising roughly 48.5% while the broader crypto market has retraced about 16.5% in the same period. In the current environment, Bitcoin has shown a degree of resilience, trading near $70,000 and having risen more than 11% since the initial Iran-related attacks. The latest move reflects a common pattern where crypto markets react to geopolitical shocks differently than traditional safe-havens, sometimes offering a counterbalance to gold’s shifts.

Bitcoin’s relative performance this month has been notable. While gold has faced renewed pressure from the energy and geopolitical backdrop, BTC’s pullback earlier this year has shifted into a recovery phase, with the digital asset reclaiming some ground as investors evaluate risk, liquidity, and the potential for institutional and retail adoption to influence price trajectories. The dynamics illustrate a broader theme in crypto markets: while gold’s role as a hedge remains debated in times of energy-market stress, Bitcoin can exhibit outsized sensitivity to policy signals, global risk appetite, and liquidity conditions.

That said, the longer-term relationship between gold and crypto remains nuanced. The twelve-month lens shows gold’s robust rally vs. a broader crypto retracement, highlighting ongoing debates about which assets best weather macro shocks and how central-bank policy, energy volatility, and geopolitical risks reweight those choices for investors, traders, and builders in the crypto ecosystem.

What this means for markets and readers

The current environment underscores a few persistent themes for crypto markets and traditional assets alike. First, geopolitical risk can simultaneously depress traditional safe havens like gold and alter risk sentiment in crypto, where Bitcoin and other digital assets may trade as high-beta instruments in the short term. Second, energy-price dynamics and central-bank policy expectations are closely linked; if energy costs push inflation higher longer than anticipated, monetary policy paths may shift, affecting both gold’s appeal and crypto liquidity environments. Lastly, as the Strait of Hormuz and related chokepoints remain in focus, traders will continue to monitor oil-flow disruptions and their implications for global growth and asset correlations.

Investors should watch how central banks respond to evolving energy and inflation signals in the coming weeks, alongside any escalation or de-escalation in regional tensions. Crypto traders may look for catalysts in liquidity shifts, exchange flows, and macro scenarios that could widen the divergence between traditional safe-havens and digital-asset assets.

Looking ahead, the market will be attentive to any developments that could alter the risk calculus: a clear shift in Middle East policy, updates from the Fed on rate guidance, and how energy markets respond to supply-and-demand dynamics. In these conditions, gold and Bitcoin continue to offer distinct narratives about hedging, risk-taking, and the evolving role of crypto in a macro-driven market backdrop.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on geopolitical developments, central-bank communications, and energy-market signals, as they will shape the relative performance of gold, Bitcoin, and the broader crypto landscape in the near term.

A Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale has reawakened after nearly 14 years of dormancy, making a test transaction from its 2,100 Bitcoin stash worth nearly $148 million at current market prices.

Data from mempool.space shows around $47 worth of Bitcoin (BTC) was transferred from wallet address “1NB3Z…QB6ZX” to a fresh address on Friday at 10:27am UTC.

The Bitcoin whale had been dormant since July 2012, when they scooped up the 2,100 Bitcoin at roughly $6.5 a coin for about $13,685, Whale Alert noted, meaning the trader is up more than 1,000,000% since 2012.

The test transaction doesn’t necessarily mean the whale is looking to offload its holdings. Many whales make small transfers to confirm that they still maintain full control over their funds.

However, crypto traders often watch whale transaction patterns to gauge Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, given the outsized influence that they have on market liquidity and sentiment.

Bitcoin whales contributed to selling pressure in the past

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in November that Satoshi-era wallets were partially to blame for Bitcoin failing to recover from the Oct. 10 market flash crash, when the cryptocurrency fell from over $120,000 to around $102,000 after nearly $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were wiped out.