The 2026 FIFA World Cup is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for prediction markets, according to new analysis from Bernstein. The research argues that the expanded tournament schedule could unlock a surge in both sports betting and consumer prediction markets, turning what is traditionally a slow window for online wagering into a substantial revenue engine.

Bernstein’s forecasts center on a roughly month-long event spanning 104 matches, during which the industry could see more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional consumer prediction market volume. FIFA’s own outlook for the worldwide audience—about 6 billion viewers, up from an estimated 5 billion in 2022—only underscores the potential scale of engagement during the tournament. The analysts frame the World Cup as a test case for how large-scale, real-world events can accelerate participation in prediction markets beyond the traditional sports betting crowd.

Key takeaways

• The World Cup could convert a typically slow betting period into a major driver of both traditional betting and prediction-market activity, with potential incremental handles in the billions of dollars.
• Coinbase is highlighted as a standout player in the prediction-market space, having surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue by March after launching nationwide in partnership with Kalshi.
• Robinhood is anticipated to benefit as it rolls out Rothera, its CFTC-licensed prediction-market exchange and clearinghouse, positioning the firm for sizable incremental revenue in 2026.
• Broader market data point to robust growth in prediction markets, driven by retail participation and sports categories, supported by regulatory developments signaling cautious openness to built-out contract markets.
• Industry volumes are expanding rapidly, with retail traders comprising a large share of activity and sports accounting for a growing share of prediction-market volumes.

Prediction markets scale with a global sports event

Bernstein’s analysis emphasizes the World Cup as a catalyst for a broader shift in the prediction-market space. While sports and politics have traditionally driven spikes in activity, the report suggests that the 2026 tournament could unlock a sustained step-up in engagement across real-world outcomes. The forecasted incremental sports-betting handle of more than $3 billion, paired with an extra $5–$10 billion in consumer prediction-market volume, signals a potential re-rating of the market’s growth trajectory for the rest of the year and into 2027.

The market implication is twofold. First, operators with established pipelines into broad U.S. and global audiences stand to capture a larger share of recreational and casual bettors who are drawn to the predict-and-win format of markets tied to real events. Second, the event provides a proving ground for non-traditional prediction offerings—ranging from entertainment and culture to politics and sports—where a large, engaged audience can be monetized through event-driven contracts.

FIFA’s global viewership projection, which Bernstein cites as a driver of engagement, also highlights a key adoption tailwind: the more people tune in, the more people seek ways to participate beyond traditional watching or betting. That dynamic could help prediction-market products gain traction beyond crypto-native users and bring in more mainstream participants who are comfortable with contract-based outcomes.

Platform momentum and revenue signals

The analysis credits Coinbase with establishing a notable presence in the prediction-market landscape. Bernstein notes that Coinbase’s prediction-market offering exceeded $100 million in annualized revenue as of March—remarkable growth for a product launched just months earlier. The rollout, pursued through a nationwide arrangement with Kalshi, enables users in all 50 states to trade outcome-based contracts across sports, politics, culture, and other real-world events. This nationwide reach marks a significant expansion from earlier, more constrained access models and positions Coinbase as a benchmark for monetization in this space.

Coinbase’s move is complemented by Roger-friendly expansion from Robinhood. Bernstein flags that the brokerage is leveraging the World Cup period to introduce Rothera, its US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets. The forecast: the World Cup could be a major revenue driver for 2026, with Bernstein projecting roughly $586 million in prediction-market revenue for the year. If realized, this would underscore a broader trend of mainstream fintech platforms embracing prediction markets as a core product category rather than a niche experiment.

These platform dynamics echo a broader industry trend: established exchanges are increasingly partnering with payment rails and regulatory-compliant structures to unlock mass participation. The momentum also raises questions about how quickly other incumbents—both crypto-native and traditional fintechs—will pursue similar paths, and what the competitive landscape might look like as more players enter the space.

Market growth, retail dominance, and regulatory signals

Beyond individual platform moves, market research from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket provides a contemporaneous snapshot of growth, noting that monthly prediction-market trading volume reached about $26 billion in April, with retail traders comprising more than 80% of users. The report also highlighted a structural shift in user behavior: rather than rallying around single events like elections, prediction markets are increasingly retaining users across recurring categories, with sports emerging as the largest segment. In March, sports betting accounted for more than 39% of prediction-market volumes, according to Bitget Wallet and Polygon data.

Regulatory signals are also shaping the trajectory. The CFTC issued draft rules around prediction markets, signaling that sports-event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law classifies them as “gaming.” The evolving policy framework is crucial for how quickly larger-scale, payment-enabled prediction markets can scale while maintaining compliance and consumer protections. For investors and builders, the regulatory environment remains a critical variable: clarity and workable licensing pathways could reinforce growth, while tightening rules could constrain new product formats or market access.

In parallel, industry chatter around valuations and fundraising remains active. Earlier coverage noted Kalshi and Polymarket eyeing substantial valuations as venture funds seek exposure to prediction-market platforms, illustrating how the space has evolved from niche experimentation to potential mainstream adoption through scalable, regulated products.

What readers should watch next

The World Cup’s impact on prediction markets will hinge on several moving parts. Actual revenue realization from Coinbase’s Kalshi partnership and Robinhood’s Rothera offering will be telling, as will user retention beyond the tournament window. Regulatory developments will continue to shape product designs, risk controls, and cross-border access for prediction-market platforms. Finally, sustained volume gains—particularly in sports- or entertainment-focused markets—will determine whether the World Cup represents a one-off surge or the start of a longer growth cycle for consumer prediction markets.

As the tournament unfolds, observers should monitor how incremental volumes compare with Bernstein’s projections and whether the retail-led momentum observed in early 2024 persists into late 2026. If the industry secures a stable regulatory footing and broadens access without compromising protections, the World Cup could become a defining milestone for prediction markets, catalyzing deeper participation from traders, investors, and builders alike.

Retail traders have scrambled for SpaceX shares ahead of the aerospace giant’s IPO, with some reportedly seeking loans as demand climbs far above available supply.

According to Bloomberg, some investors have gone beyond setting aside cash and have attempted to borrow additional funds in an effort to secure shares in Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company.

The rush comes as SpaceX prepares for one of the most closely watched public offerings in recent years, carrying a valuation of around $1.75 trillion.

US stocks surged after comments from President Donald Trump reduced concerns about a potential military escalation with Iran.

Major equity indexes recorded strong gains after reports said Trump cancelled planned airstrikes and pointed to possible progress in talks with Tehran. Market figures shared online showed more than $1.2 trillion in combined market value returned to US equities within minutes.

Markets rally after reports of eased Iran tensions

According to market commentator Bull Theory, US stocks added roughly $1.2 trillion in value within 20 minutes. The move followed reports that Trump canceled planned military action against Iran. Investors responded quickly as expectations around geopolitical developments changed during the session.

The S&P 500 led gains among major benchmarks. The index climbed 1.33% and added approximately $890 billion in market capitalization.  At the same time, the Nasdaq advanced 1.75% and contributed around $670 billion.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.22%. The index added roughly $150 billion in market value during the rally. The Russell 2000 also rose 1.70%, increasing its capitalization by about $56 billion.

The gains appeared across several market segments. Large technology companies, industrial firms, and smaller businesses all participated in the advance. The move showed buying activity across multiple areas of the market.

Index gains spread across large and small cap stocks

Bull Theory highlighted the scale of the market reaction in a post on X. The account linked the rally to reports surrounding US-Iran developments. It also pointed to improving sentiment across major stock indexes.

Market participants often react rapidly to developments involving international relations. Changes in expectations can influence trading activity within minutes. In this case, investors moved into equities following reports of reduced military risk.

Technology shares participated alongside traditional blue-chip companies. Small-cap stocks also recorded gains as the rally expanded. The advance did not remain concentrated within a single industry group.

Trading activity increased as market sentiment improved during the session. The gains followed several periods of uncertainty tied to geopolitical developments. Investors adjusted positions as new information entered the market.

SpaceX IPO discussion joins market conversation

Attention has also turned toward the anticipated SpaceX initial public offering. Bull Theory noted that the IPO was less than 24 hours away when the comments appeared. The upcoming listing added another point of focus during an active trading session.

Large public offerings often attract interest from both institutional and retail investors. Market participants frequently evaluate such events alongside broader economic and political developments. The expected SpaceX debut remained part of discussions throughout the session.

Even so, trading activity centered largely on developments related to US-Iran relations. Reports concerning diplomacy and military action remained the primary catalyst behind the market move. Investors continued monitoring official statements from Washington and Tehran for further updates.

The session ended with major indexes holding strong gains. Market participants remained focused on geopolitical developments and upcoming corporate events. The rally underscored how rapidly stock prices can respond to changes in international developments.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already positioned Coinbase to capture part of an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion increase in prediction market activity tied to the tournament, according to Bernstein.

According to a research report published Thursday by Bernstein, the expanded World Cup is expected to generate more than $3 billion in additional sports betting handle while driving billions of dollars in new prediction market volume as fans engage with 104 matches over the month-long event.

The analysts identified Coinbase as one of the main beneficiaries after the exchange built a prediction market business that surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue in March, only months after launching the product.

FIFA expects around 6 billion people to follow the tournament worldwide, up from roughly 5 billion viewers during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Bernstein said the tournament arrives during a period that is typically one of the quietest stretches for online sports betting, creating an opportunity for prediction market platforms to attract new users and trading activity.

Coinbase strengthens its position in event-based trading

Earlier this year, Coinbase expanded into prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users across all 50 U.S. states to trade contracts linked to sports, politics, culture, and other real-world events.

At the same time, the exchange has been expanding its derivatives business. As reported by crypto.news, on June 11, Coinbase secured approval to offer access to global crypto perpetual futures to U.S. users.

Chief executive Brian Armstrong said the approval makes Coinbase the first U.S. platform able to connect customers with global crypto perpetual futures liquidity.

Armstrong argued that regulatory uncertainty had pushed much of the crypto derivatives market offshore, even as many American traders continued seeking access through overseas platforms.

Coinbase said the newly approved structure will connect U.S. customers to liquidity through Deribit, the derivatives exchange it acquired for $2.9 billion earlier this year.

Alongside derivatives and prediction markets, Coinbase has also introduced Coinbase for Agents, a platform that allows artificial intelligence systems to execute financial tasks directly through user accounts. The company said users can authorize AI agents connected to models such as ChatGPT and Claude to monitor markets, manage positions, rebalance portfolios, and execute trades based on predefined rules.

While the initial rollout focuses on cryptocurrency transactions, Coinbase said support for stocks and prediction markets is planned for a later stage, opening a path for automated participation in event-driven markets.

Sports contracts continue attracting the largest share of activity

Separate industry data suggests sports-related events are becoming the largest source of prediction market volume.

According to an April report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders accounting for more than 80% of participants. The report found users are increasingly remaining active across recurring categories rather than only trading around major one-time events such as elections.

Sports represented more than 39% of total prediction market volume in March, according to data cited by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, making it the largest category on many platforms.

Competition in the sector is also increasing. Bernstein expects Robinhood to benefit from the World Cup as it launches Rothera, its Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse. The analysts forecast roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for Robinhood during 2026.

Regulatory conditions may also become more favorable. On Wednesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released draft rules indicating that sports event contracts are generally not considered contrary to the public interest, despite federal law classifying them as gaming products.

TLDR:

• Public RWA trackers show $64.5M on Hedera, while RedSwan reports over $5B tokenized assets.
• RedSwan’s Hedera-based platform targets $25B in tokenized commercial real estate growth.
• Private security token offerings may explain why billions remain absent from public dashboards.
• Hedera expands U.S. regulatory engagement as HBAR trades near key support and resistance levels.

Hedera’s tokenization activity has drawn fresh attention as discussions continue around the network’s real-world asset presence.

While public dashboards show a relatively modest amount of tokenized real estate, data shared by ecosystem participants points to a much larger footprint that remains outside publicly tracked markets.

Private Real Estate Tokenization Draws Attention to Hedera Network Activity

Hedera remains under market pressure, with HBAR trading near $0.078 and posting losses over the past 24 hours. Trading activity has stayed muted, while the token continues moving within a narrow range between $0.075 and $0.081.

A recent post from X Finance Bull brought renewed focus to Hedera’s real-world asset ecosystem. The post argued that publicly available RWA trackers may not reflect the network’s full tokenization activity. 

According to the post, public dashboards currently display about $64.5 million in tokenized real estate on Hedera. However, figures associated with RedSwan CRE place the value above $5 billion.

RedSwan CRE is a commercial real estate tokenization platform based in Houston. Hedera’s official information states that the company has tokenized more than $5 billion in institutional-grade properties on the network. The platform also plans to expand that figure to $25 billion over the next 36 months.

The company’s leadership includes CEO Edward Nwokedi, who previously served as an executive director at Cushman & Wakefield. The platform reports more than 13,000 investors and manages funds focused on the United States, Africa, and Gulf markets.

In 2023, RedSwan secured a $4 billion portfolio from a Dubai-based client. The portfolio included 36 mixed-use properties across the Middle East. Those assets were appraised by Cushman & Wakefield and tokenized through RedSwan’s Hedera-based platform.

The discussion has centered on why those figures remain largely absent from many public RWA dashboards. According to the information shared, these assets are structured as regulated security token offerings and are available only to verified investors.

Regulatory Engagement Continues as HBAR Trades Sideways

Alongside tokenization developments, Hedera has increased its participation in regulatory discussions in the United States. The network recently joined a coalition of roughly 200 organizations supporting the Clarity Act.

The coalition is seeking clearer rules for digital commodities and broader market structure legislation. Supporters argue that clearer regulations could provide greater certainty for blockchain networks and digital assets operating within the U.S. market.

At the same time, Hedera representatives are taking part in the Blockchain Association’s Member Fly-In. During the event, participants are scheduled to meet with 52 U.S. Senate offices to discuss market structure legislation and regulatory frameworks for the industry.

Meanwhile, market performance has remained subdued. HBAR has declined nearly 9% during the past week, according to market observers cited in the update. Traders have pointed to low volume as a key factor behind the token’s limited price movement.

Analysts continue monitoring nearby technical levels. Resistance remains between $0.084 and $0.10, where stronger buying activity would be required for a breakout. On the downside, support around $0.075 remains an area closely watched by traders.

For now, attention remains divided between Hedera’s regulatory efforts and the debate surrounding the scale of tokenized assets operating on its network.

While public trackers present one view of activity, discussions around private security token offerings continue shaping perceptions of Hedera’s role in real-world asset tokenization.

US lawmakers have introduced legislation that would create a Department of Justice-led task force to coordinate investigations into cryptocurrency theft, scams and other digital asset-related crimes across federal, state and local law enforcement agencies.

Under the proposal, the Justice Department would serve as the primary federal coordinator for cryptocurrency theft investigations, bringing together agencies including the FBI, Homeland Security Investigations and Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.

The bill introduced by Republican Representative Lance Gooden and his Democratic House colleague Josh Gottheimer directs the task force to develop best practices for evidence collection, blockchain forensics, asset tracing and victim support. It would also provide training and technical assistance to state and local law enforcement agencies.

According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, Americans reported more than $11 billion in crypto-related losses last year.

Source: Gooden.house.gov

The task force would coordinate with international law enforcement agencies on cross-border investigations and submit annual reports to Congress on emerging threats, enforcement challenges and potential policy recommendations.

The bill specifies that it would not authorize new regulation of cryptocurrency markets, expand the authority of federal agencies or create new criminal offenses, instead focusing on coordination among agencies already responsible for investigating financial crimes.

Related: Chainalysis, South Korean police link up to fight crypto crime

Crypto investigators turn to AI-powered analytics

The proposed task force comes as blockchain intelligence firms increasingly deploy artificial intelligence tools designed to help investigators trace stolen funds, identify illicit activity and analyze complex transaction flows across digital asset networks.

In March, TRM Labs launched Co-Case Agent, an AI investigative assistant for crypto crime and compliance teams. The company said the tool can trace fund flows, audit blockchain transaction graphs and suggest investigative steps from natural language prompts.

Source: TRMLabs

Chainalysis announced similar blockchain intelligence agents later that month, saying the tools would be rolled out over the summer for investigations and compliance. The company said the agents were designed to help users trace funds and gather intelligence as crypto criminals increasingly use AI to scale their operations.

The growing focus on investigative tools comes as crypto-related exploits continue to generate significant losses. According to DeFiLlama, hackers stole roughly $630 million in April alone, marking the industry’s largest monthly loss total since February 2025.

Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express

Backpack Securities and Sunrise have introduced SPCX, a token tied to underlying SpaceX shares and issued on Solana.

The launch creates a blockchain-based version of SpaceX exposure that eligible users can convert into actual shares. The rollout comes as tokenized securities continue expanding beyond bonds and funds into private company equity markets.

SPCX links Solana trading with SpaceX share ownership

Backpack said SPCX represents a tokenized right backed by underlying SpaceX shares. Eligible investors can redeem tokens for actual shares through regulated brokerage channels. The structure connects blockchain-based trading with traditional securities ownership.

Digital Asset Holdings has secured a fresh $355 million financing round led by Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto arm, signaling a growing appetite on Wall Street for permissioned blockchain infrastructure. The round also includes participation from 7RIDGE, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Citadel Securities and Optiver, valuing Digital Asset at roughly $2 billion, according to Bloomberg Law’s reporting citing people familiar with the matter.

The capital will be deployed to scale the Canton Network, Digital Asset’s privacy-focused platform designed to enable institutions to tokenize and settle traditional securities while keeping commercially sensitive data protected. Canton has already been piloted by a slate of major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, BNP Paribas, Standard Chartered, Société Générale and Deutsche Börse.

Bloomberg’s reporting last month indicated Digital Asset had initially sought around $300 million at a similar valuation and expected to close the round within weeks. Co-founder and CEO Yuval Rooz summarized the journey in a post on X after the announcement: “We knew institutional adoption was the path. We failed. We made bad decisions… But we never let go of our North Star.”

Key takeaways

• Digital Asset raises $355 million at about a $2 billion valuation, led by Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto arm, with 7RIDGE, ADIA, Citadel Securities and Optiver among participants.
• The funds will accelerate Canton Network’s expansion as a privacy-preserving, tokenization-and-settlement layer for traditional securities used by large financial institutions.
• Today’s round extends a multi-year funding trajectory, building on prior capital events in 2025 and 2021 that have reinforced Wall Street’s backing for Digital Asset.
• The ongoing investor support underscores a broader industry push toward institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure, though deployment timelines and regulatory clarity remain in focus.

A new round, a maturing vision for Canton

Digital Asset’s latest financing centers on the Canton Network, the company’s distributed ledger framework intended to facilitate the private issuance, tokenization and settlement of traditional securities without exposing sensitive data to counterparties. By preserving privacy while enabling cross-institutional settlement, Canton aims to modernize aspects of the capital markets ecosystem that rely on high-security data handling and compliance controls.

The round’s participants reflect a convergence of traditional finance and crypto-native firms seeking durable, scalable infrastructure. Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto affiliate led the funding with a$100 million allocation, while strategic contributors include 7RIDGE, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Citadel Securities and Optiver. The infusion values Digital Asset at approximately $2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Law report.

“The path to real institutional adoption is clear,” Rooz said in his post. “We have spent nearly a dozen years evolving from a DRW spin-out into a platform that can support real-world securities workflows with privacy baked in.”

The Canton Network has already attracted real-world pilots with several marquee banks and market operators, a testament to the architecture’s potential to address regulatory and data-access concerns that have long constrained cross-border and multi-venue settlements. The ecosystem page for Canton highlights participation and collaboration across major financial players, illustrating a practical, industry-aligned roadmap rather than a niche crypto use case.

Canton Network gains institutional traction

The collaboration slate for Canton underscores a trend: big financial institutions are increasingly willing to experiment with permissioned blockchains that promise data confidentiality alongside the efficiencies of tokenized settlement. Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, BNP Paribas, Standard Chartered, Société Générale and Deutsche Börse have all piloted Canton’s capabilities, marking a meaningful adoption signal for permissioned networks in capital markets.

Observers have noted that the new funding aligns with the industry’s broader move toward tokenized, regulated securities and the infrastructure required to support it. The round’s scale and the caliber of backers suggest a longer-term commitment to building an interoperable, institutional-grade platform that can operate within existing compliance regimes while unlocking new liquidity and settlement efficiency.

Meanwhile, Digital Asset’s public communication about the financing emphasizes the importance of “institutional adoption” as a strategic North Star. The company has framed Canton not merely as a technology demonstration but as a practical highway for asset tokenization, secured collateralized lending, and structured outcomes that demand privacy and security at scale. The new funding will accelerate Canton’s rollout and its network effects among banks, custodians, and other market participants.

In parallel, the funding history paints a picture of sustained investor confidence in Digital Asset’s approach. Earlier this year, Digital Asset disclosed a $135 million round led by DRW Venture Capital with participation from Tradeweb, Citadel Securities, IMC, Optiver, Goldman Sachs, Virtu and others, followed by a $50 million strategic round in December from BNY Mellon, Nasdaq, S&P Global and iCapital. These successive rounds reflect a coordinated, multi-faceted push from both traditional financial powerhouses and crypto-focused investors toward the Canton framework.

A multi-year funding runway and strategic implications

Digital Asset’s fundraising trajectory extends beyond the recent rounds. In 2021, the company raised more than $120 million from investors including 7RIDGE and Eldridge, following earlier investments from JPMorgan, Citi, Deutsche Börse, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Samsung and Salesforce. Taken together, the financing stack signals a deepened industry belief that permissioned, privacy-preserving blockchain networks can complement, or in some cases augment, existing post-trade infrastructure.

For market participants, the implication is twofold. First, the backing by a broad coalition of Wall Street players could help catalyze broader adoption of Canton’s platform, potentially lowering the cost and risk of tokenizing traditional assets. Second, as regulatory clarity evolves around tokenized securities, Canton’s architecture—designed to keep transaction data private among counterparties—may address concerns about data exposure and compliance in cross-institution workflows. However, timing remains uncertain, and Digital Asset has not disclosed a definitive deployment schedule for a broad, live rollout beyond its existing pilots.

Cointelegraph reached out to Digital Asset for comment but did not receive a reply by publication time. The company’s leadership has publicly framed the current funding as a vindication of a long-term strategy, even amid earlier missteps, underscoring a commitment to the “North Star” of institutional-grade tokenization.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt

What to watch next: as Canton scales, market observers will be watching for concrete evidence of scalable tokenized securities settlement within regulated frameworks, concrete client wins, and a clearer regulatory path that could accelerate or delay the network’s expansion. The coming quarters should reveal whether Canton can translate pilots into durable, revenue-generating services for the traditional financial system.