The US dollar failed to hold its gains following a significantly stronger-than-expected US employment report. The economy added 162,000 jobs versus the forecast of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% and previous employment figures were revised higher. The data initially triggered a sharp rise in the dollar, but the US currency subsequently gave back most of its gains. One factor limiting the impact of the strong report was a slowdown in annual wage growth, which somewhat reduced its overall effect. The market reaction suggests that even strong employment data have not yet led to a sustained repricing of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy.

Market attention is now shifting towards US inflation data. A strong labour market reduces the need for rapid Fed easing, but the future path of interest rates will depend to a large extent on developments in price pressures. As a result, the upcoming inflation figures could become the next key driver for the dollar.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar benefited from the subsequent weakening of the US currency, with AUD/USD reaching fresh recent highs near 0.7200. The AUD is also receiving support from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a relatively hawkish stance, limiting the downside potential for the Australian currency.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD points to the possibility of further gains towards the 0.7260–0.7280 area, provided the price holds above 0.7200. A return below 0.7200, followed by a sustained move below this level, would weaken the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a corrective decline.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continues to decline and has approached the August lows around 1.3730. In addition to the weaker US dollar, the Canadian dollar is being supported by oil prices, which remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.

A sustained move below 1.3730, followed by this level becoming resistance, could open the way for a further decline towards the 1.3520–1.3570 area.

Key events for USD/CAD and AUD/USD:

• today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index;
• today at 15:15 (GMT+3): weekly change in US employment according to ADP;
• today at 23:30 (GMT+3): weekly US crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Overall, following the strong NFP report, the dollar failed to hold its initial gains, allowing the commodity-linked currencies to return to important technical levels. AUD/USD is testing the area of recent highs, while USD/CAD is approaching its August lows. With a relatively quiet economic calendar, further moves will depend on how expectations for Fed policy are repriced and on positioning ahead of the next US inflation data.

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Natural gas has been on a genuinely volatile ride this week, briefly topping $3.00/MMBtu on Tuesday before reversing sharply lower as fading cooling demand outweighed strong LNG export needs. The commodity, currently trading near $2.91, remains up roughly 4% over the past month despite sitting nearly 7% below year-ago levels.

The supply side tells a comfortable story: US inventories sit 5.2% above the five-year seasonal average, and Lower 48 output remains near record highs, both capping any sustained rally. Yet demand is anything but boring. LNG feedgas flows to major export facilities climbed to 18.3 bcfd in early September from 17.2 bcfd in August as Texas plants returned from maintenance, while European and Asian buyers scramble to rebuild storage ahead of winter amid continued disruptions to Persian Gulf LNG supplies.

That geopolitical thread is the real wildcard. Renewed attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend pushed European gas prices to their highest level in over three years, with Qatar largely suspending LNG shipments and extending force majeure on cargoes through autumn.

The result: a domestic market well-supplied and range-bound, sitting uneasily beneath an international backdrop that could send prices sharply higher if Gulf tensions escalate further.

Technical Analysis of XNG/USD

As the XNG/USD chart shows, natural gas staged a strong recovery from a bullish RSI divergence in mid-August, printing higher lows on the RSI even as price carved a fresh low near 2.596, the 0 Fibonacci level. That divergence fuelled a steady uptrend, defined by higher highs and higher lows along an ascending trendline, though price has only just broken below that trendline, currently testing the confluence with the 0.382 retracement near 2.874.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers reclaim the broken ascending trendline and hold above the 0.382 support, the recovery structure would regain credibility. A push back above the 0.5 retracement near 2.960, the resistance where price has repeatedly reacted in recent sessions, would open the path towards the 0.618 level near 3.045.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a confirmed break below the 0.382 retracement would signal that the correction has real legs, exposing the 2.650–2.700 intermediate support zone, with a deeper slide risking a full retest of the 2.596 low that anchored the entire August–September rally.

With price having just lost its ascending trendline right at a key Fibonacci confluence, natural gas’s next move looks set to determine whether this recovery still has room to run, or whether the trend shift confirmed by the RSI divergence has already run its course.

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Key takeaways

• Pi Network is trading above $0.098 after rebounding from the 50-day EMA near $0.094.
• PI has gained more than 3% this week after advancing 5.2% during the previous week.
• The Pi Core Team is prioritizing developer tools and documentation to encourage more applications within the ecosystem.

Pi Network extended its recovery on Wednesday, trading above $0.098 after finding support near its 50-day exponential moving average earlier this week.

PI has gained more than 3% since the start of the week, building on a 5.2% advance during the previous seven-day period.

The rebound coincides with a renewed push from the Pi Core Team to strengthen the network’s developer ecosystem. The team argues that better development tools can encourage the creation of more products and services, expanding PI’s practical utility.

Technical indicators also show improving momentum. However, the token remains below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which continue to limit the broader recovery.

Pi Core team prioritizes developer ecosystem

The Pi Core Team said on X that supporting developers is essential to expanding utility at the application level.

Developers create the products, services, and digital experiences through which members of the Pi community can use the network. Improving the development environment could therefore help convert Pi’s underlying technology and ecosystem resources into accessible applications.

The latest comments follow the introduction of new developer capabilities on September 4.

Pi Network also released documentation offering developers clearer guidance on how to build applications for the ecosystem.

Together, the updates indicate that the network is placing greater emphasis on application development as a path toward wider utility.

The long-term impact will depend on whether these resources attract developers and lead to applications with sustained user activity. Developer tools alone do not guarantee adoption, but they can lower the barriers to building and deploying new products.

PI extends two-week recovery

PI traded near $0.098 on Wednesday after buyers defended the 50-day EMA around $0.094. The moving average acted as dynamic support, allowing the token to preserve its short-term recovery. Remaining above this level could encourage buyers to challenge the next significant resistance area.

PI’s consecutive weekly gains also suggest that selling pressure is easing. Still, the price remains below the 100-day EMA at $0.106 and the 200-day EMA at $0.143.

These higher-timeframe indicators show that the token has not yet completed a broader bullish reversal.

A sustained recovery will require PI to reclaim both moving averages and convert them into support.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 63, placing it above the neutral midpoint of 50. This indicates that buying momentum has strengthened without reaching the conventional overbought threshold of 70. The reading gives PI some room to extend its recovery before momentum becomes excessively stretched.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is also mildly positive, reinforcing the improvement in short-term momentum.

However, both signals remain constrained by the resistance created by the 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The indicators favor further gains, but price action must confirm the bullish outlook with a breakout above these barriers.

The 100-day EMA near $0.106 represents PI’s first major upside target. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the recovery and bring the horizontal resistance at $0.118 into focus.

If buyers overcome $0.118, the next significant target would be the 200-day EMA near $0.143. Reclaiming that moving average would provide stronger evidence that PI’s longer-term trend is improving.

From the current price near $0.098, reaching $0.106 would require a gain of approximately 8%. An advance toward $0.118 would represent roughly 20% upside.

The token will likely require increased trading volume to overcome these resistance levels and sustain the breakout.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $0.094 is the first important support level. A break below this indicator could weaken the short-term recovery and send PI toward the former downtrend interaction area near $0.086.

If buyers fail to defend that region, the risk of a deeper bearish move would increase. The next major horizontal support sits around $0.075.

As long as PI holds above $0.094, the immediate outlook remains constructive. A breakout above $0.106 would favor an extension toward $0.118, while losing the 50-day EMA could place the recent recovery under pressure.

Bitcoin traded near $79,200 on Sept. 9 after recovering sharply from its June low, supporting Wintermute’s broader argument that the current downturn has been shallower than the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.

The market maker said Bitcoin was about 50% below its peak roughly 340 days after the cycle high. It compared that decline with losses exceeding 75% at the same stage of the previous two major bear markets.

However, the 50% figure requires context. Bitcoin’s current price is not 50% below its record. It describes the approximate maximum drawdown reached during the current cycle, or a selected point in Wintermute’s cycle comparison.

At $79,200, Bitcoin was approximately 37% below the record above $125,600 reached in October 2025. The difference matters when assessing whether the market is still near capitulation or has already moved into a recovery phase.

Bitcoin’s current drawdown is smaller than 50%

Wintermute’s Sept. 7 update said Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms had become progressively shallower. It cited declines of about 83% in the 2018 bear market, 77% in 2022 and roughly 50% during the current cycle.

Independent price data support the broad direction of that comparison. Bitcoin fell approximately 52.6% from its October 2025 record at the June 2026 trough, according to Hashrate Index’s historical analysis.

Bitcoin then closed July at $63,577, leaving it about 48.9% below the peak. Its August rally reduced the drawdown further as the price closed the month above $78,000.

The calculation based on the current price is straightforward. Bitcoin’s verified October 2025 record was approximately $125,653. A price of $79,200 represents a decline of about 36.97%, rounded to 37%.

Wintermute’s statement that BTC “sits 50% below peak” therefore does not describe the Sept. 9 spot price. The figure is better understood as the deepest drawdown reached earlier in the cycle or as a chart observation based on a different cutoff date.

The larger claim remains valid: the present cycle has not produced the 75% to 80% collapse seen after earlier peaks. Whether that proves structural market maturity remains open.

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Shallower Bitcoin bottoms may reflect deeper liquidity

Wintermute attributed the smaller loss partly to exchange-traded funds and institutional investors entering earlier during market weakness. That explanation is plausible, but it cannot be confirmed through drawdown data alone.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $987 million in net inflows during the week ended Sept. 4. The result marked their third consecutive positive week and lifted inflows across that period to about $3.8 billion.

Daily flows remained uneven. The products recorded a large $731 million inflow on Sept. 3, followed by approximately $175 million on Sept. 4, according to Farside. They then recorded net outflows as the new week began.

The data show that regulated products provided meaningful demand during the recovery. They do not prove that ETFs established the June bottom or permanently reduced Bitcoin’s downside risk.

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Market structure has nevertheless changed since 2018. Spot ETFs allow pensions, advisers, hedge funds and other investors to obtain exposure through traditional brokerage and custody systems. The products create an additional demand channel that did not exist during Bitcoin’s earlier bear markets.

Institutional participation can also work in both directions. ETF shares can be sold quickly, and large redemptions may increase pressure during risk-off periods. A broader investor base may deepen liquidity without eliminating severe drawdowns.

Wintermute also pointed to improving market breadth and rotation between investor groups. It said profits leaving mature trades were funding newer sectors, which it described as resembling a young market cycle.

That remains the firm’s interpretation. The rally has not spread evenly. Wintermute itself noted that artificial intelligence and decentralized physical infrastructure tokens outperformed while decentralized finance and Layer 2 tokens remained comparatively weak.

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Bitcoin held firm after stronger U.S. payrolls

Bitcoin’s resilience was tested by the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, while unemployment remained at 4.1%.

The official report showed employment gains in food services, local government education and manufacturing. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% during the month and 3.1% from a year earlier.

The stronger labor data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy soon. Bitcoin fell from approximately $82,400 to below $80,000 after the release but retained part of its weekly gain.

Wintermute viewed that response as evidence of underlying demand. It argued that crypto held up better than expected during a week when markets repriced the possibility of higher interest rates.

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One market reaction does not establish a lasting break from macroeconomic conditions. Bitcoin remains sensitive to interest rates, bond yields, the U.S. dollar and liquidity expectations.

The U.S. Treasury also began increasing its long-term securities buybacks. The department raised the maximum size of operations involving 10-to-30-year nominal securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.

The change took effect Sept. 9 and will remain in place through Nov. 4, according to the Treasury’s official announcement. Buybacks may improve market liquidity, but they are not direct purchases of Bitcoin or a new monetary stimulus program.

Technical indicators show momentum cooling near $79,000

Bitcoin’s price recovered from its June low and moved above its 200-day simple moving average during the August rally. As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin approached $83,000 after reclaiming the long-term average.

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The supplied chart showed the relative strength index at 62.18, below its moving average of 68.17. An RSI above 50 indicates positive momentum, while the decline from higher readings shows that buying pressure has cooled.

The MACD line crossed below its signal line, and the histogram fell to minus 436.98. Both main MACD lines remained above zero. This combination normally reflects weakening short-term momentum within a broader recovery rather than confirmation of a full bearish reversal.

Trading volume also declined after the move toward $79,000. Lower volume during consolidation suggests fewer participants were pursuing the price after the sharp rebound.

These indicator values depend on the chart’s timeframe and update time. They should not be treated as permanent signals. A recovery in volume and a bullish MACD crossover would strengthen momentum, while a sustained move below nearby support could deepen the correction.

Wintermute identified $82,000 as the immediate level Bitcoin must clear and $72,000 as the level that would weaken its constructive view. Those are the firm’s trading reference points rather than guaranteed support or resistance.

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Upcoming U.S. events will test the shallower-bottom theory

The next major inflation release and Federal Reserve meeting will test whether Bitcoin can remain resilient under tighter financial conditions.

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Sept. 15 and 16, according to the Fed’s official calendar. The policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16, followed by a press conference.

The meeting will include updated economic projections. Traders will focus on the policy rate, inflation forecasts and officials’ expected path for future decisions.

A stronger inflation reading or a more restrictive Fed message could increase bond yields and pressure risk assets. Softer data could reduce rate expectations and support Bitcoin, although the market reaction will also depend on positioning before the announcements.

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ETF flows offer another test. Continued inflows would support Wintermute’s argument that institutional capital is entering earlier during weakness. Sustained outflows would weaken that explanation, particularly if Bitcoin also falls below $72,000.

The available evidence supports a narrow conclusion. Bitcoin’s deepest loss this cycle has been much smaller than the 2018 and 2022 collapses. Its present drawdown is smaller still after the August recovery.

The evidence does not confirm that June was the final bottom or that future bear markets cannot become deeper. The current cycle has produced a shallower decline so far, but that pattern remains subject to macroeconomic conditions, ETF demand and Bitcoin’s response around $72,000 and $82,000.

FAQs

Is Bitcoin currently 50% below its record?

No. At approximately $79,200, Bitcoin is about 37% below its October 2025 record near $125,653. The 50% figure better describes the cycle’s earlier maximum drawdown.

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Did Bitcoin bottom in June 2026?

June produced the lowest price of the current decline and a drawdown of approximately 52.6%. Wintermute said whether it marked the final bottom “is still open.”

Why could Bitcoin’s drawdowns be getting smaller?

Possible factors include spot ETF demand, broader institutional access and deeper liquidity. These explanations remain theories rather than proven causes.

What price levels is Wintermute watching?

Wintermute identified $82,000 as the upside level to clear and $72,000 as the level that would change its view.

What happens next for Bitcoin?

Markets face U.S. inflation data and the Sept. 15–16 Federal Reserve meeting. ETF flows and Bitcoin’s response around $72,000 and $82,000 will also be closely watched.

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Tether has tested its decentralized peer-to-peer search technology by storing the full Wikipedia archive across 100 distributed nodes, as the USDT issuer works on a system designed to remain available without relying on centralized search infrastructure.

According to Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, the company’s P2P team is developing what he called the “Unstoppable Search Engine,” which is designed to scale across thousands of nodes while allowing data to organize itself through fault-tolerant structures.

Ardoino shared the latest test results on Sept. 8, showing a working search interface connected to 100 nodes. The full Wikipedia archive was distributed across the test network and remained searchable, with Ardoino describing the system’s performance as “insane.”

The latest demonstration builds on Hypersearch, a decentralized search engine that Ardoino first disclosed in April. The project uses distributed infrastructure instead of keeping the search index and query process under a single centralized operator.

Tether search engine runs Wikipedia across 100 nodes

In the latest test, Tether distributed Wikipedia’s archive across 100 separate nodes and demonstrated searches being processed through the network.

The interface shown by Ardoino displayed Wikipedia search results alongside network information, including the nodes participating in the test. Tether is developing the architecture to scale horizontally across thousands of nodes while maintaining high availability when individual participants leave the network or become unavailable.

Fault-tolerant structures are being used to let the data organize across the distributed system, according to Ardoino. The design is intended to make the search service resistant to censorship while reducing its dependence on any individual server or network participant.

Development remains underway, with Ardoino saying the team’s progress has been “impressive.” Tether has not announced a public release date for the search engine or detailed when users outside its testing environment will gain access.

Hypersearch was first disclosed on April 7, when Ardoino described it as a decentralized search engine based on distributed hash table technology. A DHT allows information to be stored and located among network participants without requiring one central directory to handle every request.

The project uses HyperDHT, part of the peer-to-peer technology associated with the Holepunch software stack. HyperDHT provides a way for peers to find one another and exchange information directly, forming part of the infrastructure Tether has been using across several of its software projects.

Tether is currently recruiting engineers for its P2P search team, with its job listing seeking experience in distributed databases, conflict-free replicated data types, search architecture and P2P networking. The role specifically covers ranking algorithms, inverted indexes, lexical and semantic search, NAT traversal, encryption and network protocol optimization.

The listing names HyperDHT, Hyperswarm, Hypercore, Hyperbee, Hyperdrive and UDX among the Holepunch technologies used by the team.

Hypersearch extends Tether’s P2P software work

Search is not Tether’s first attempt to build software around peer-to-peer architecture.

Tether and Bitfinex previously backed Holepunch and its encrypted communication application Keet. As crypto.news previously reported, Keet was developed to support direct audio calls, messaging and file transfers through a distributed network without routing communication through conventional centralized infrastructure.

Tether later applied similar ideas to its Bitcoin mining operations. Its Mining OS was released as open-source software in February 2026, with encrypted peer-to-peer networking and support for operations ranging from individual mining setups to industrial facilities.

The company followed that work in April with an open-source Mining Development Kit designed to provide hardware control and monitoring through a JavaScript software development kit and React user interface library. The system was built to work across Windows, macOS and Linux and support operations ranging from home mining rigs to large mining facilities.

Tether’s earlier Moria mining platform had already used Holepunch technology to connect components through a P2P model. During testing in 2023, the company said write actions required multi-signature approval while the platform combined peer-to-peer communication with Internet of Things technology.

Hypersearch takes the same distributed approach into information retrieval. Instead of concentrating the searchable dataset and processing infrastructure in one place, its architecture divides those functions among participating nodes.

The Wikipedia deployment provides a controlled test of that model using a large existing collection of documents. Tether has not disclosed how the engine would crawl or index the wider web, how ranking would work at public scale, or what mechanisms would be used to deal with spam, manipulated results and conflicting data across a large open network.

Tether is building more software outside stablecoins

The search project is part of a series of software products Tether has developed outside the USDT business.

Its work has extended into artificial intelligence through QVAC, where the company has been developing tools intended to run models locally instead of depending on centralized cloud infrastructure. In April, Tether released the QVAC SDK, an open-source toolkit for running AI applications directly on consumer devices.

QVAC Fabric supports text, speech, vision and translation workloads, while Holepunch technology is used for peer-to-peer model distribution and delegated inference. Tether has said its development plans include decentralized model training and fine-tuning alongside toolkits for other computing applications.

That architecture follows earlier work to move AI processing onto user hardware. In March, Tether said QVAC Fabric had been used to fine-tune models with up to 3.8 billion parameters on devices including the Pixel 9, Galaxy S25 and iPhone 16, while models of up to 13 billion parameters had been tested on the iPhone 16.

Tether’s search team is working on related distributed-system problems, including replicated data, networking and information retrieval. Its current engineering recruitment specifically seeks developers familiar with Kademlia-style DHT systems, CRDTs and the Holepunch stack, alongside conventional search concepts such as ranking, recall, precision and inverted indexes.

For now, the search engine remains under development. Ardoino’s latest demonstration shows the full Wikipedia archive running across 100 distributed nodes, while Tether is designing the underlying architecture to eventually operate across thousands.