The U.S. Senate will not vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, a delay that could prolong regulatory uncertainty for crypto firms and indirectly strengthen the bargaining position of jurisdictions already offering clearer rules. First Digital CEO and FDUSD stablecoin issuer Vincent Chok said the postponement gives places like Hong Kong and Singapore more time to demonstrate that regulation and innovation can coexist.

According to an office confirmation relayed to Cointelegraph, Senator John Thune’s team said the bill will be prioritized when senators return in September. The delay is attributed to Democratic opposition to the legislation.

Key takeaways

• The U.S. Senate will not hold a pre-August recess vote on the CLARITY Act; lawmakers are expected to revisit the bill in September.
• Industry leaders warn that prolonged uncertainty can slow institutional adoption more than long timelines can.
• Executives argue that clearer Asian regulatory frameworks could attract more talent and capital as U.S. rules remain unsettled.
• Critics say the outcome risks a return to “regulation by enforcement” if Congress fails to set out coherent market structure rules.
• Some market participants contrast the U.S. delay with the EU’s MiCA regime, which is already in effect.

What the Senate delay means for U.S. market structure

Chok’s comments highlight the core problem many market participants associate with the CLARITY Act debate: without an enacted framework, institutions must operate amid unclear expectations around market structure, custody, and oversight.

In a statement sent to Cointelegraph, Chok said markets can adjust to slower timelines, but “what they struggle with is prolonged uncertainty.” For institutions—especially those weighing regulated custody arrangements, compliance resourcing, and operational risk—this type of ambiguity can translate into delayed decisions, reduced willingness to offer new products, or a preference for platforms and venues that feel less exposed to changing enforcement priorities.

The CLARITY Act is often viewed as a potential bridge toward predictable rules for how digital asset markets should be structured in the U.S. With a Senate vote now pushed beyond the August recess, the question shifts from “whether the bill advances” to “how long uncertainty lasts—and whether it becomes a permanent drag on institutional momentum.”

Pressure on institutions: enforcement risk and compliance fragmentation

Maylea Ma, deputy general counsel at decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch, framed the stakes in terms of enforcement style rather than just timeline. If Congress does not ultimately enact the CLARITY Act, Ma said the industry could face a renewed emphasis on “regulation by enforcement.”

She described continued reliance on agency interpretations, case-by-case enforcement, and a patchwork of state-level rules covering money transmission and securities-related obligations. In practice, that kind of fragmentation can raise compliance costs and make it harder to scale across jurisdictions—particularly for firms trying to build products that require consistent regulatory expectations.

At the same time, Ma said 1inch expects to keep operating with a model that is conservative on custody—stressing non-custodial and self-custody characteristics—while waiting for greater legal certainty in the U.S.

That distinction matters: some business models can be adapted to enforcement risk by limiting custodial responsibility, while others—such as offerings that require regulated custody partners or broad consumer access—may still struggle under an unclear baseline for oversight.

Why Asia could benefit as clarity becomes a competitive advantage

Chok argued that regulatory progress outside the U.S. would continue regardless of the CLARITY Act’s timetable. In his view, the delay provides regional hubs additional time to show that clear rules can be paired with ongoing innovation.

His comments effectively position regulatory certainty as a market asset. When institutions consider where to allocate resources—launching new services, hiring compliance talent, or setting up operational infrastructure—jurisdictions with settled frameworks can appear less risky than those where policy is repeatedly deferred.

That competitive dynamic is also reflected in the political critique offered by Wellington-Altus chief market strategist James E. Thorne. Posting on X, Thorne characterized the postponement as a defeat for the bill’s momentum and suggested it could encourage innovation to move offshore while other regions develop more defined regimes.

While Thorne’s language is partisan, the underlying theme aligns with the broader industry concern: uncertainty creates incentives to seek regulatory certainty elsewhere, especially for firms with global plans.

Europe’s MiCA as a benchmark—and the U.S. gap

Ma pointed to the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) as an example of a framework already in force. She said 1inch would continue with its current operational approach while the U.S. awaits clearer guidance.

MiCA’s status matters in this context because it provides a reference point for companies and institutions comparing where compliance effort may be more predictable. When one region is already operating under a harmonized set of requirements, the contrast with the U.S.—where digital asset regulatory treatment can still vary by agency focus and jurisdiction—can influence product roadmaps.

In other words, the Senate delay is not happening in a vacuum. Even if the CLARITY Act were to move forward later, market participants are already using other regulatory baselines to plan risk and timelines.

With the Senate vote now expected in September, the next watchpoint is whether the bill gains sufficient support to move beyond procedural friction. Until then, institutions are likely to keep balancing their U.S. strategies against the operational certainty offered by other regimes—especially as the industry asks whether “later” clarity can avoid turning into an extended period of enforcement-led governance.

The dollar heads into today’s session with one of the most important catalysts of the summer on deck: the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due at 12:30 PM UTC. Economists expect around 95,000 jobs added, down from June’s already weak 57,000 print, with the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%.

The backdrop makes this release particularly consequential. At its July meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but the tone was notably hawkish: three policymakers pushed for a hike rather than any discussion of cuts. That stance has kept the dollar broadly supported, even as recent JOLTS data pointed to cooling labor demand and futures markets trimmed the odds of a September hike to around 59%, down from 67% just days earlier.

Today’s numbers will likely decide which narrative wins out. A stronger-than-expected print, particularly alongside firm wage growth, would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish resolve and could send the dollar testing higher levels. A weaker report, especially with downward revisions to prior months, would revive rate-cut expectations and put fresh pressure on the greenback heading into the rest of August.

Technical Analysis of the DXY

As the chart shows, the DXY has spent nearly two months consolidating after its 2026 recovery, currently squeezed between a descending trendline from late June’s highs and a newly formed ascending trendline off early August’s lows, with price also testing the confluence of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 100.28.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers break above the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 retracement near 100.53, where the 200-period EMA also sits, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 100.79, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 0.786 retracement near 101.16 and the 101.63 highs beyond.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 99.60 support would expose the 0.0 Fibonacci level near 99.44, invalidating the recent recovery attempt and opening the door to a deeper pullback within the broader consolidation range.

With today’s NFP report landing right at this technical crossroads, where two converging trendlines meet a key Fibonacci confluence, the DXY looks poised for a decisive break—will the dollar finally resolve two months of consolidation, or extend the standoff into next week?

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XRP’s MiCA approval has strengthened its long-term outlook as investors increasingly explore EiCrypto’s cloud hashing contracts for diversified crypto participation.

The case for a bullish outlook on XRP has become clearer following its full MiCA approval, reigniting the debate over price predictions. While the market welcomes regulatory clarity, chart data is still needed to substantiate the price trajectory.

The regulatory landscape for XRP has become clearer, but the charts still require further validation.

The approval of MiCA is crucial, as it eliminates one of the biggest uncertainties facing XRP. Greater regulatory clarity boosts trader confidence, which can reignite genuine buying enthusiasm in the market.

However, bullish signs have not yet fully materialized. XRP is publicly traded, meaning everyone sees the same resistance levels, knows the same breakout points, and can wait for confirmation. Consequently, while the potential for a rise remains, the market has not yet given the bulls a definitive answer. News of the approval has improved the outlook but has not resolved the issue of timing. If demand follows the news, XRP could still continue to rise, but what the market needs now is real follow-up action, not just better news.

For XRP holders, rather than fixating on market fluctuations, it is more productive to consider how to generate consistent returns from their digital assets amidst price volatility and achieve long-term wealth growth.

It is against this backdrop of market demand that a new digital asset operation model — EiCrypto cloud hashing contracts — has begun to attract increasing attention from investors in digital assets such as XRP and BTC. Some market observers believe that, in addition to allowing XRP holders to retain the potential for asset appreciation, this model can generate consistent cash flow returns for users through a hashing-based earnings mechanism.

What is EiCrypto cloud mining?

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In conclusion

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Coinbase Financial Markets lost its bid for preliminary relief in Michigan on Aug. 6 after U.S. District Judge Shalina Kumar refused to block state officials from enforcing sports betting laws against the company’s event contracts. 

The order leaves Coinbase without the injunction it sought as its challenge continues.

Coinbase sued Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, arguing that event contracts offered through federally regulated prediction markets fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s exclusive jurisdiction. Coinbase wants Michigan customers to access contracts supplied through Kalshi.

Judge rejects Coinbase’s preemption case

Kumar concluded that Coinbase had not shown a likelihood of success on its federal preemption claims, a requirement for preliminary relief. The judge rejected Coinbase’s argument that sports event contracts necessarily qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore sit beyond Michigan’s gambling authority.

The court also rejected Coinbase’s claim that compliance with federal derivatives law and Michigan’s Lawful Sports Betting Act would be impossible. Kumar wrote that Coinbase’s assertions were “applesauce,” adding that higher costs or operational difficulty do not establish legal impossibility. The ruling addresses preliminary relief rather than a final judgment.

Coinbase has argued that state restrictions frustrate Congress’s attempt to build a federal derivatives regime. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal previously said state efforts to control prediction markets “stifle innovation and violate the law.” That remains Coinbase’s position, not a conclusion accepted by the Michigan court.

Federal courts remain divided over sports contracts

The Michigan ruling lands in a legal split. In April, the Third Circuit affirmed preliminary relief for Kalshi in New Jersey, holding that Kalshi had shown a reasonable chance of succeeding on its argument that sports event contracts are swaps and federal derivatives law preempts conflicting state restrictions.

Other courts have reached the opposite conclusion. Michigan federal judges have questioned whether Congress intended the Commodity Exchange Act to sweep sports wagering into the federal swaps framework. Earlier decisions in Ohio and elsewhere have rejected or limited the industry’s preemption theory, leaving the legal status unsettled.

As previously reported in New Jersey coverage, former SEC and CFTC Chair Gary Gensler argued that sports prediction contracts should remain outside the federal swap framework. In related coverage, gaming groups have urged Congress to preserve state authority over sports wagering rather than let federally registered platforms bypass state licensing systems.

CFTC is pressing its own federal authority

The CFTC has taken the opposite institutional position. Chairman Michael Selig has repeatedly said the agency has exclusive jurisdiction over federally regulated prediction markets. The commission sued Kentucky in June after the state pursued enforcement against designated contract markets and has initiated proceedings involving Minnesota, Illinois and Rhode Island.

The agency is also rewriting its event contract framework. A June proposal would create a structured process for determining whether contracts involve gaming, terrorism, assassination, war or conduct unlawful under federal or state law, and whether they are contrary to the public interest. The proposal includes a 90-day review period.

As crypto.news reported in prediction market coverage, the CFTC’s push has expanded beyond individual disputes into rulemaking. Another proposal addresses reporting requirements for certain collateralized event contracts, showing federal regulators are building a structure while courts continue debating state power.

What happens next in Coinbase’s Michigan case

The denial means Coinbase does not receive the preliminary shield it requested against Michigan enforcement. It does not resolve every issue in the underlying lawsuit. Coinbase can continue litigating its claims and may seek appellate review of the injunction decision, while Michigan officials can continue defending their authority under state gaming law.

The case also increases pressure on higher courts to reconcile conflicting interpretations. The Third Circuit has sided with Kalshi on the core swap and preemption questions, while several district courts have disagreed. Coinbase argues a conflicting appellate ruling elsewhere would deepen the split and increase the likelihood of potential Supreme Court review.

For Coinbase, the stakes extend beyond Michigan. Its prediction market service is offered through Coinbase Financial Markets, and the company has been expanding event contracts alongside stocks, crypto and derivatives. Coinbase argues state restrictions could force different availability rules across the country if federal preemption remains unsettled.

The next major developments will be any appeal, merits rulings in Michigan and appellate decisions in other prediction market cases. The CFTC’s rulemaking may shape the debate, but an agency rule cannot erase statutory questions courts are already interpreting. For now, Kumar’s ruling gives Michigan a procedural win while leaving the national jurisdiction fight unresolved.

The fallout from the Coldcard security breach is now surfacing on-chain.

According to Glassnode data, roughly 210,000 BTC have moved out of long-term holder (LTH) wallets over the past week, the largest decline since December 2024, when bitcoin approached $100,000 for the first time.

Glassnode classifies long-term holders, or LTHs, as entities whose coins have remained dormant for approximately 155 days, or just over five months. This cohort is often considered the market’s “smart money” because its members tend to hold through short-term volatility.
Long-term holder supply now stands at approximately 14.7 million BTC. Before the Coldcard incident, it was just under 15 million BTC, close to an all-time high.

Historically, heavy spending by long-term holders has coincided with periods of market strength or tops. Similar waves of distribution occurred around the market peaks of March 2021, March 2024 and December 2024, as experienced holders took profits into rising demand.

This time, however, the movement is occurring near the lows. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, roughly 50% below its October all-time high.