A monthly research report from Bitwise’s European arm published this week pegs bitcoin’s theoretical “fair value” at roughly $224,000 if the asset were widely adopted as portfolio insurance against G20 sovereign debt defaults.

The research team described the figure as a “model-implied illustrative figure, not a price target or forecast,” however.

The figure stems from a theoretical framework first proposed by analyst Greg Foss in 2021, which treats bitcoin as a credit default swap on sovereign bonds.

Because the bitcoin network has no central issuer and operates without a sovereign backstop, the Foss model frames it as a non-correlated hedge against the possibility of major sovereign defaults.

The implied $224,000 fair value depends on the weighted default probability across group of 20 (G20) sovereigns and the market capitalization of the bonds being notionally insured.

It built the case around stress in sovereign bond markets. Japanese 30-year government bond yields have hit record highs while 10-year JGB yields sit at multi-decade peaks.

The International Monetary Fund and OECD have warned that governments and companies are set to borrow $29 trillion from bond markets this year, 17% higher than 2024, with the IMF describing markets as becoming less forgiving and investors as increasingly questioning the limits of sovereign borrowing capacity.

Bitwise singled out Japan’s JGB market as particularly vulnerable, citing its roughly $7.5 trillion size as the world’s second-largest sovereign bond market, Japanese investors’ approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings, and Japan’s roughly 230% debt-to-GDP ratio.

It noted that 10-year swap spreads, which measure sovereign risk premia, are at their highest levels since the 2011-2012 European debt crisis across major sovereign bonds.

But the report flagged some near-term headwinds for bitcoin as well.

Higher global bond yields have made Strategy’s (MSTR) STRC perpetual preferred equity dividends less attractive to investors, and STRC has recently traded below par.

Strategy buys have accounted for roughly two-thirds of institutional bitcoin demand via global treasury companies and bitcoin ETPs through 2026 to date, per Bitwise’s count, meaning a stall in Strategy’s STRC-funded accumulation could materially dent the flow.

The upside scenarios Bitwise outlines hinge on monetary policy and sovereign stress.

A Fed pause under newly confirmed chair Kevin Warsh against rising inflation could push real yields lower, which the report cited as a historical tailwind for bitcoin. A sovereign bond capitulation that forces central bank intervention to safeguard financial stability could validate bitcoin’s role as a decentralized hedge against sovereign counterparty risk.

On valuation, the report flagged one of the most extreme divergences between bitcoin and U.S. large-cap tech it has observed. Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value ratio sits in the lower half of its historical distribution, with only 36% of historical readings below the current level.

The NASDAQ 100’s price-to-book ratio, by contrast, is at its highest level on record, with 99% of historical readings below the current level.

Bitcoin was trading near $66,300 on Wednesday after sliding from above $71,000 earlier this week.

The European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA) reaches a pivotal juncture on July 1, when the transitional regime concludes and crypto asset service providers operating under national regimes must hold a MiCA licence or discontinue EU operations. According to ESMA, non-authorized entities will not be permitted to operate within the bloc from that date and should implement wind-down plans and client migrations rather than rely on an open-ended transitional status while awaiting a decision.

The deadline raises the prospect that some firms will suspend EU activities while their MiCA applications are under review, potentially disrupting access for millions of EU-based users who continue to engage with platforms not yet authorized under MiCA.

Key takeaways

• Effective July 1, any crypto asset service provider without a MiCA licence, operating under national exemptions, must cease EU operations or risk enforcement actions.
• Regulators have explicit enforcement tools to halt services, force client offboarding, publish firm names, and impose administrative fines for unauthorized activity under MiCA.
• France has authorised 19 CASPs so far, with about 25 additional applications under review, while unauthorized providers face criminal penalties (up to two years in prison and a 30,000 euro fine).
• Germany requires that providers previously operating under exemptions obtain licence by June 30, with enforcement measures possible where appropriate.
• Austria did not extend grandfathering under its pre-MiCA regime; no exchanges are operating without a licence in the country, with nine CASPs licensed by the FMA and a significant volume of MiCA applications still in process.
• Industry estimates suggest a sizable share of European users may still interact with non-MiCA-authorized platforms; OKX Europe’s analysis indicates that a substantial portion of active users may be on non-authorized exchanges.
• Major exchanges remain in the licensing process, including Bitget (Austria) and Binance (Greece); neither is currently listed among MiCA-authorized providers in the EU, with statuses evolving as regulators review applications.

National enforcement landscapes and licensing progress

France’s Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) has authorised 19 crypto asset service providers to operate under MiCA, with roughly 25 applications still under review. The AMF emphasizes that from July 1, providers not licensed under MiCA must cease their activities within the French market. The regulator has also signaled that it can blacklist firms, issue public warnings, and seek court orders to block access to sites targeting French users. Unauthorized activity is treated as a criminal offence with potential penalties including prison time and fines.

Germany has adopted a national implementation approach that includes a licensing requirement for providers previously operating under exemptions. BaFin, its national regulator, indicated that a licensing window closes by June 30, and enforcement may be applied where appropriate as regulators review ongoing applications. The German stance aligns with MiCA’s directive for national authorities to grant immediate enforcement powers against unauthorised services.

Austria presents a stricter posture by choosing not to extend any grandfathering for virtual asset service providers under its pre-MiCA regime. The post-transition environment is designed so that no exchanges operate without a licence. The Finanzmarktaufsicht (FMA) has licensed nine CASPs to date, and it notes that MiCA-related applications are significant, though it does not disclose pending figures.

Legal risk, enforcement tools, and what the end of transitional periods means for providers

Industry legal counsel stress that simply having a MiCA application in progress does not shield a CASP from the July 1 deadline. Firms continuing to serve EU clients without an authorised MiCA framework will be operating unlawfully and cannot expect business-as-usual treatment once transitional protections lapse. MiCA itself equips member states with clear authorities to order an immediate halt to services, mandate client offboarding, publicly name non-compliant firms, and impose administrative fines for unauthorized activity. This creates a path for rapid, targeted action by regulators against non-compliant platforms.

These enforcement provisions bear significantly on the operational dynamics across the EU, potentially triggering abrupt wind-downs, forced migrations of clients to compliant platforms, and heightened scrutiny of cross-border service provision. The end of transitional periods also intersects with broader regulatory expectations around AML/KYC compliance, consumer protection, and ongoing supervisory oversight of licensing practices across member states.

Impact on users and market structure

The potential disruption extends beyond the regulated landscape into user access and liquidity across the European market. Analysis shared with Cointelegraph by OKX Europe suggests a sizable portion of European crypto users may still be active on platforms that are not MiCA-authenticated. OKX Europe quantified a period from May 2025 to May 2026 during which 18.5 million crypto app downloads occurred in Europe; approximately 7.6 million of those downloads, or 41%, were for exchanges not appearing on the independent MiCA-authorized provider register maintained from ESMA and national datapoints. OKX cautions that app-install data undercounts user activity due to browsers or earlier-app usage, and thus estimates may not capture all active users. OKX Europe CEO Erald Ghoos described this as a meaningful exposure, noting that many users may still rely on non-authorized platforms through multiple access channels.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has not provided a public estimate of how many EU users remain on unauthorised platforms, citing the absence of non-public information. The regulatory framing underscores a transition in market structure: as MiCA entrants consolidate, a period of adjustment is expected where users migrate to licensed venues or where enforcement narrows the field of available services. This shift has potential implications for cross-border banking relationships, stablecoin integration within regulated rails, and the standardization of licensing and supervisory practices across jurisdictions.

Active applicants and ongoing licensing momentum

Not all major exchanges have achieved MiCA licensure. Bitget has applied for a MiCA licence in Austria in 2025 and indicated it expects regulatory approval in the second quarter of 2026; it has stated it will refrain from offering EEA services until authorization is granted. Binance has pursued a MiCA licence in Greece via the Hellenic Capital Market Commission and is not listed among MiCA-authorized providers in the EU as of now. Binance did not respond to requests for comment on its application status. The ongoing review processes for these and other providers will shape the pace at which non-localized regional operations convert to fully MiCA-compliant activity.

These licensing trajectories illustrate how enforcement timelines, national regulatory interpretations, and the resources available to review applications will influence the competitive landscape. For exchanges of scale, the MiCA licensing process functions not merely as a compliance hurdle but as a potential market access gate that can determine cross-border growth and consumer reach within the EU’s single market framework.

Closing perspective

As the July 1 deadline approaches, the EU’s MiCA framework moves from principle to practice, pushing providers toward formal licensing, wind-down planning, or exit from the EU market. The evolution will test regulatory coordination among member states, map user exposure across compliant and non-compliant platforms, and redefine the structural dynamics of crypto service provision in Europe. Forward-looking vigilance will be essential for institutions tracking licensing trajectories, enforcement actions, and the practical implications for compliance, risk management, and customer continuity in a transitioning market.

Agentic payment activity on Coinbase’s Base network has surpassed 100 million transactions, signaling that machine-to-machine payments are moving beyond the proof-of-concept stage in onchain environments.

According to a new Chainalysis report, wallets interacting with Coinbase’s x402 protocol generated more than 100 million transactions on Base within roughly nine months of launch.

The x402 protocol allows software agents to make onchain payments directly through web requests. When an agent requests access to a resource, such as a data feed or API, it can automatically complete a stablecoin payment without human authorization.

Much of x402’s early growth was driven by a memecoin experiment called PING, which required users to make a payment through the protocol to mint tokens. The project attracted large numbers of users looking to acquire the token, triggering a surge in transaction activity.

Although activity moderated after the PING frenzy subsided, usage did not collapse. According to Chainalysis, transaction volumes have stabilized while the value of transfers has increased.

In early 2025, transactions worth more than $1 accounted for roughly 49% of total value transferred through x402. By early 2026, that figure had climbed to 95%, suggesting that the protocol was moving beyond micropayments.

Cumulative agentic transfer volumes on Base. Source: Chainalysis

Related: How AI agents can reshape arbitrage in prediction markets

Onchain data points to a growing use case for agentic payments

The rise of AI tools has sparked renewed interest in agentic payments. Supporters say crypto networks are well-suited for these transactions because they can move money around the clock and process payments automatically, without requiring a user to approve every purchase.

Several crypto industry leaders, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, have argued that AI agents could soon account for a significant share of onchain activity. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao has expressed a similar view, describing cryptocurrency as the “native currency” of AI agents.

Early versions of machine-to-machine payments already exist in crypto. Decentralized computing networks allow users and applications to pay for GPU resources on demand, while decentralized data marketplaces enable applications to purchase datasets and blockchain information through automated transactions.

Weekly wallet retention for agentic payments on Base has been trending upward. Source: Chainalysis

Interest in the concept extends beyond crypto. A recent Forrester report highlighted Stripe’s Machine Payments Protocol as a potential catalyst for reviving micropayments through AI agents.

Bernstein analysts said AI agents could boost demand for stablecoins, which are well-suited to frequent, low-value payments, highlighting Coinbase’s x402 protocol.

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

Key Takeaways

• Timothy Horan from Oppenheimer downgraded AT&T shares from Outperform to Perform, eliminating his previous $32 price target.
• Shares of AT&T declined 4.4% to $23.56 on Wednesday, marking the steepest single-session decline since October 2025, with year-to-date losses now at 5.2%.
• The analyst’s bearish stance stems from increasing competition in satellite broadband, particularly from SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo platforms, which could threaten AT&T’s internet customer base.
• The anticipated SpaceX initial public offering next week is expected to amplify concerns about satellite-based threats to conventional broadband companies.
• Satellite LEO operators are forecast to acquire more than 2 million new subscribers annually, potentially commanding 10% of the market by 2030, with Starlink’s pricing now competitive with traditional broadband services.

AT&T (T) Shares Tumble 4.4% Following Analyst Downgrade on Satellite Broadband Threat

AT&T Inc., T

Shares of AT&T plunged 4.4% to close at $23.56 on Wednesday following Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan’s decision to downgrade the telecommunications company from Outperform to Perform, while simultaneously withdrawing his previous $32 price target. The decline represented the stock’s steepest intraday loss since October 2025.

The downgrade wasn’t triggered by operational missteps at AT&T. Rather, Horan’s concerns focus on an emerging competitive threat originating from space.

The analyst’s primary worry revolves around escalating competition from satellite low-earth-orbit (LEO) broadband services, especially SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo platforms. Horan contends that the telecommunications sector is significantly undervaluing the disruptive potential of satellite internet on traditional broadband services, mirroring how cable providers previously miscalculated the impact of fixed wireless technology.

“We are concerned the industry is underestimating the risk of satellite as cable did with [fixed wireless access],” Horan stated in his research note.

Upcoming SpaceX IPO Could Amplify Competitive Concerns

The timing of Horan’s downgrade carries strategic significance. With SpaceX scheduled to debut on public markets next week, the analyst anticipates that the IPO will intensify scrutiny on the competitive challenges satellite technology presents to established telecom operators like AT&T.

Horan’s projections suggest satellite providers will add over 2 million subscribers annually and potentially capture 10% of the broadband market by 2030. He further observes that Starlink’s pricing has achieved parity with conventional broadband services, while capacity is projected to expand tenfold through V3 satellite deployment.

Among major carriers including AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, Horan identifies AT&T as facing the greatest exposure. The analyst points to AT&T’s substantial wireline infrastructure and slower adoption of fixed wireless technology compared to competitors as primary weaknesses. He also anticipates downward pressure on average revenue per user (ARPU), with T-Mobile and Verizon’s superior cost structures intensifying competitive dynamics.

AT&T CEO John Stankey has disputed the severity of the satellite threat. During the company’s annual shareholder meeting in May, he recognized satellite’s utility for underserved locations but argued: “I don’t think satellite is a substitute for the speed, reliability and capability of our assets that we’ve been investing in for decades.”

AT&T’s $250 Billion Infrastructure Initiative

The telecommunications giant is actively responding to competitive pressures. This past March, AT&T unveiled plans for a $250 billion investment spanning five years to accelerate fiber optic, 5G, and wireless infrastructure deployment nationwide.

During the Q1 earnings call in April, Stankey disclosed that AT&T’s fiber network currently serves more than 37 million customer locations and is projected to expand to over 60 million by decade’s end.

The company has also introduced a promotional offering bundling home internet and wireless service starting at just $35 monthly.

Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha contributors currently assign AT&T a Buy rating, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant system rates the stock as a Hold with a 3.42 out of 5 score, recognizing strong profitability metrics but noting weakness in growth potential.

AT&T stock has declined 5.2% year-to-date in 2026.

As the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCA) reaches a pivotal juncture, July 1 marks the end of the transitional period. Crypto asset service providers operating under national regimes must either secure a MiCA licence or halt EU activities. Regulators are signaling strict enforcement once the clock runs out, with potential consequences for millions of users still active on platforms awaiting authorisation.

According to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), from July 1 non-authorised entities “will not be allowed to operate within the EU” and should implement wind-down and client-migration plans rather than rely on a rolling transitional status. The hard deadline amplifies the risk that some platforms could suspend services mid-review as they race to obtain authorisation or exit the market altogether, a scenario that could disrupt access for a substantial user base.

In France, the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) has granted licences to 19 crypto asset service providers so far, with roughly 25 applications still under review, an AMF spokesperson told Cointelegraph. From July 1, providers that are not MiCA-authorised must cease their activities. The AMF notes that continuing to operate without a MiCA licence is considered a criminal offence punishable by up to two years in prison and a fine of up to €30,000. The regulator also has tools to blacklist unauthorised firms, issue public warnings and seek court orders to block access to websites targeting French users.

Germany’s regulator BaFin said that the national implementation requires licensing of providers that had benefited from exemptions, with a deadline set for June 30. Regulators typically align with EU timelines but emphasise that enforcement will be used where appropriate, and some applications remain under review.

Austria presents a tougher stance on grandfathering, opting not to extend pre-MiCA relief. The post-transitional regime in Austria ended on December 31, 2025, and as a result, no exchanges are operating without a licence. The Financial Market Authority (FMA) has licensed nine crypto asset service providers to date, and it notes that MiCA application volume is significant, though it does not disclose how many applications are still pending.

Key takeaways

• The MiCA transitional period ends on July 1, requiring MiCA authorisation for EU-facing services or cessation of activities for unapproved providers.
• France has authorised 19 CASPs so far, with about 25 more under review; unauthorised platforms face criminal penalties and enforcement actions.
• Germany requires licensing by June 30 for entities formerly operating under transitional exemptions, with enforcement powers available where appropriate.
• Austria has ended grandfathering under its pre-MiCA regime; nine CASPs have been licensed, and MiCA applications remain significant but undisclosed in total.
• The FTSE-style of market disruption: a substantial portion of users may still rely on non-MiCA platforms, underscoring looming liquidity and access risks for EU traders and consumers.

MiCA deadline and its enforcement posture

The end of the transitional periods under MiCA centralises oversight and raises the stakes for providers still servicing EU clients without a licence. ESMA’s guidance underscores that member states must empower authorities to halt services immediately, force offboarding of clients, publicly name non-compliant firms and impose administrative fines for unauthorized activity. This framework aims to curb user exposure to unregistered platforms and to bolster supervisory coherence across the bloc.

The enforcement landscape could translate into rapid action against platforms that fail to secure authorisation in time. In France, for instance, the AMF’s authority to publish warnings and to block sites demonstrates how regulators intend to protect users who may not fully grasp the regulatory status of their chosen platform. For users, that means a potentially abrupt migration to MiCA-compliant providers or a shift to regulated alternatives, depending on who receives licencing and who does not.

OKX Europe provided a stark view of the potential scale of dislocation. In a briefing shared with Cointelegraph, the firm noted that, based on their analysis, about 41% of Europe’s 18.5 million crypto app downloads between May 2025 and May 2026 were for exchanges that do not appear on the independent MiCA-registered list compiled from ESMA and national data. While ESMA did not provide an estimate of how many EU users remain on non-authorised platforms, the implication is clear: many users may still be exposed to platforms that fall outside the MiCA umbrella as the deadline nears.

OKX Europe’s assessment goes beyond downloads. CEO Erald Ghoos told Cointelegraph that app-download data underrepresents the true user base, as many individuals access exchanges via web browsers or previously installed apps. By augmenting app-store data with web traffic and search trends, OKX estimates that roughly 60% of European crypto users are actively engaging with platforms that do not hold MiCA authorisation. The statistic, while not independently verified by regulators, highlights the potential scale of non-compliant activity across the region.

License applications in motion: Bitget, Binance and others

Not all major platforms have completed MiCA licencing, and several are still navigating the review process in member states. Bitget, for example, applied for a MiCA licence in Austria in 2025 and has projected a regulatory decision in the second quarter of 2026. The exchange has said it will refrain from offering services in the European Economic Area until it obtains authorisation.

Binance has pursued MiCA licensing in Greece through the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. As of now, the company is not listed among MiCA-authorised providers in the EU, and Binance did not respond to Cointelegraph requests for comment on the status of its application. The Greek filing illustrates how high-profile platforms are continuing to seek licensure even as the July deadline approaches and enforcement actions loom for unauthorised operators.

The ongoing licensing activity reflects a broader regulatory push across Europe to consolidate oversight, align with a unified standard, and reduce risk for users who may be exposed to unregistered platforms. While some firms move toward compliance, others face questions about how quickly they can secure approvals and what operational adjustments may be required to meet MiCA’s conditions.

What this means for users and market dynamics

The July deadline has been cast by many observers as a test of regulatory readiness and industry resilience. For users, the risk lies in potential service interruptions, forced migration to MiCA-compliant platforms, and the need to confirm the licencing status of exchanges they use. Regulators have signaled that where necessary they will intervene, including actions to block access or to publish warnings to protect consumers from unauthorised activities.

Industry participants have highlighted the difficulty of mapping the exact scope of non-compliant activity. The ESMA register, while informative, does not capture every active user or platform, particularly as usage patterns shift between apps, web interfaces and regional services. The regulatory push is designed to reduce this ambiguity by ensuring that a clear roster of licensed providers exists and that cross-border supervision can be enforced more effectively.

For investors and builders, the MiCA phase-out raises questions about market liquidity, who will hold custody rights, and how fast new entrants can scale under licencing conditions. While some major exchanges are actively pursuing MiCA licences, others may opt to wind down operations in the EU. The ultimate mix of licensed entrants and wind-downs will shape EU crypto adoption in the coming quarters, with implications for competitive positioning and regulatory alignment across the bloc.

As regulators move to close transitional gaps, readers should monitor forthcoming licencing decisions, enforcement actions and the pace at which platforms migrate user bases to MiCA-compliant services. The July 1 deadline is not the end of MiCA’s rollout, but a turning point that will reveal how quickly and effectively the industry can harmonise with Europe’s unified regulatory framework.

The next phase will likely hinge on how swiftly national authorities deploy their powers to halt non-compliant operations, how many providers secure licences, and how users respond to shifts in platform availability. The landscape remains in flux, and stakeholders should stay tuned for updates on licensing outcomes, enforcement actions and the evolving mix of compliant exchanges serving EU customers.

Kalshi has launched CFTC-approved bitcoin perpetual futures in the United States, giving American traders access to a regulated version of a product that has long been dominated by offshore crypto exchanges.

Kalshi announced on X that its bitcoin perpetual futures contract is now live on the platform, describing the launch as one of the first openings for U.S. investors to trade regulated crypto perps on domestic soil. The product, listed as BTCPERP, follows approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on May 29, 2026, under Commission Regulation 40.3.