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Markets Watch BoJ Meeting as Yen Holds Near 40-Year Lows vs USD
Japan’s next monetary policy decision is coming into sharper focus as the yen keeps sliding toward fresh 40-year lows against the US dollar. With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled to meet on July 31, markets are weighing whether policymakers will pause at current levels—or signal further tightening as the currency weakens.
The immediate question for global markets, and particularly for crypto traders, is how much pressure a yen slide can add through “carry trade” dynamics. When Japanese rates stay low and the yen depreciates, borrowing in yen to fund riskier assets can expand. But if conditions shift—especially if the yen moves abruptly—those positions can unwind quickly, tightening liquidity and often hitting highly leveraged markets.
Key takeaways
- USD/JPY is nearing new 40-year highs, edging toward the 164 area after last week’s record set, according to TradingView.
- The BoJ meets on July 31 with its policy rate currently at 1.0%, the highest since September 1995.
- Market pricing points to a hold decision, with prediction markets indicating very high odds of no change.
- Yen carry-trade unwinds remain a key risk for crypto liquidity, after the 2024 unwind episode was triggered by yen-related interventions.
Yen weakness puts the BoJ under a global spotlight
On Tuesday, data from TradingView showed USD/JPY approaching 164, just short of the new 40-year highs recorded last week. That level matters not only because it reflects yen depreciation, but because Japan’s currency policy affects far more than domestic pricing.
The yen is widely used as a funding currency. With relatively light capital controls and deep liquidity outside the dollar, a weakening yen can reinforce global carry strategies—positioning that depends on Japanese rates staying low and exchange rates remaining stable enough to avoid forced closures.
Japan’s backdrop has also supported that role for decades: earlier current account and trade surpluses helped underpin the currency’s liquidity profile while low interest rates kept yen funding attractive. However, since inflation picked up in 2022, the balance has been shifting toward the possibility of carry-trade stress—particularly if yen depreciation forces investors to exit leveraged trades faster than they expected.
The BoJ’s July 31 decision comes as the policy rate stands at 1.0%, its highest since September 1995. While most expectations currently point to no change, the forward guidance from earlier in the year has kept attention on the pace and timing of potential further hikes.
Markets expect a hold—BoJ’s guidance still leans toward tightening
On expectations for the upcoming meeting, markets appear aligned around the idea of a pause. The reporting around the decision notes that market-implied probabilities show a rate hold at roughly 98%, following the BoJ’s most recent increase in June.
Prediction service Polymarket similarly priced the odds of no change at 99% as of Tuesday, signaling that traders largely expect policymakers to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at the July meeting.
Still, the June meeting summary referenced conditions that could justify additional tightening later. In its published summary, the BoJ pointed to underlying inflation approaching 2%, accommodative financial conditions, and the appropriateness of continuing to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in response to developments in activity, prices, and financial conditions.
The same BoJ materials also flagged how exchange rate moves can feed into CPI dynamics. According to the BoJ’s Outlook for Economic And Prices issued after its April meeting, firms’ pricing and wage behavior may make exchange rate developments more likely to affect prices than in past regimes—ultimately influencing underlying CPI inflation through changes in inflation expectations. The document explicitly notes that attention should be paid to this mechanism.
Since then, yen weakness has persisted, even after the June rate hike. As earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted, the yen has remained above the key 160 level against the dollar despite a post-hike dip, with the broader trend still pointing toward yen depreciation.
Crypto traders watch carry trade risk as yen moves near highs
For crypto markets, the yen story is not just macro trivia—it is a liquidity channel. The yen carry trade can act as a source of risk capital for assets that trade with high leverage, including cryptocurrencies. But that linkage cuts both ways: if the yen strengthens or begins to move sharply, carry positions can unwind, often transmitting stress into trading venues quickly.
Cointelegraph previously reported that interventions in August 2024 triggered a snap “unwinding” of the carry trade, which was accompanied by a rapid negative impact on Bitcoin and altcoins. That episode matters because it illustrates how quickly a trade can reverse when currency moves overwhelm the assumptions that initially made it profitable.
With USD/JPY building on new 40-year highs, concerns about a repeat have resurfaced. Analyst Ricky Ho highlighted in an X post on Monday that the carry trade works only if two conditions remain intact: Japanese interest rates stay exceptionally low and the yen remains broadly stable or continues depreciating. Ho also argued that unwinds are rarely gradual, citing leverage levels that can force faster exits than markets may expect.
Ho went further, suggesting that investors may be focusing too narrowly on the specific months of future BoJ hikes. In his view, the more important issue is that the policy direction has already fundamentally changed—meaning that the risk is tied to the trajectory of policy rather than the calendar.
That framing is particularly relevant given the uncertainty around how much of the yen’s weakness the BoJ is willing to tolerate, and whether further tightening might be used to influence currency stabilization indirectly. If the BoJ’s stance shifts from slow, incremental normalization toward a more hawkish path, it could affect expectations around the yen—either helping prevent disorderly moves or raising the chance of abrupt repricing if markets believe the currency will recover too quickly.
What to monitor before and after July 31
With the BoJ meeting on July 31 and expectations currently centered on a hold, traders and investors will likely focus less on the decision itself and more on the details that follow: any changes in language about the yen’s impact on CPI, how the BoJ balances financial conditions with inflation and growth, and whether guidance implies additional hikes sooner than markets are currently pricing.
Even if the rate is left unchanged, the market’s sensitivity to the yen’s trajectory remains high. The question for the next phase of both macro and crypto liquidity is whether USD/JPY stabilizes—or whether yen moves accelerate in a way that forces leveraged positioning to adjust rapidly.
Visa said it is investing across the stablecoin stack, highlighting OpenUSD, tokenized deposits and AI-powered commerce during the company’s third-quarter earnings call.
XRP is trading at around the $1.06 price level, down more than 4% since yesterday. The setup remains as unstable as it looks. Price is compressing inside a tight range with no clear resolution. Bulls and bears both have a case, and whichever side breaks first could trigger the next meaningful move.
The main near-term narrative remains spot ETF inflows optimism. That expectation has helped support sentiment despite recent price weakness. Meanwhile, price differences across exchanges reflect uneven liquidity rather than a clear market direction.
Speculative forecasts of $5 XRP by late 2025 continue circulating on social media. However, those projections remain opinion, not evidence. For now, traders are paying closer attention to price structure than long-term predictions.
Technically, the key support sits around $1.05. A decisive break below that level could expose the psychological $1.00 area. If buyers continue defending support, the current range may tighten until either ETF developments or a shift in market sentiment forces a breakout.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Can XRP Price Reclaim $1.20 Before the ETF Decision Lands?
At its current $1.06 price level, XRP is sitting near the lower edge of its recent consolidation range. Recent support around $1.08 to $1.10 has already given way, leaving the near-term structure looking more cautious. Trading volume remains steady rather than explosive, suggesting buyers have not returned with conviction.
The bullish scenario remains straightforward. XRP needs to reclaim $1.10 with strong volume before buyers can target the $1.20 to $1.25 resistance zone. Spot ETF optimism continues supporting sentiment, but traders still need confirmation from price before calling for a sustained breakout.
The base case still favors consolidation. XRP could continue trading between $1.05 and $1.10 while investors digest macro developments and regulatory headlines. That would leave neither bulls nor bears with a decisive advantage, extending the current period of indecision.
The bearish case begins with a confirmed daily close below $1.05. If that level fails, the next meaningful demand zone sits around $1.00, followed by $0.95 if selling accelerates. Momentum indicators still lack a clear directional signal, making any breakout likely to be sharp once volatility returns.
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Maxi Doge Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels
XRP at current levels offers a known asset with a known ceiling. The upside math from $1.06 to even $2.00 is roughly a double, and that requires flawless ETF execution, sustained institutional flows, and cooperative macro. That’s not a bad trade. It’s just not an asymmetric one.
Traders hunting for the kind of outsized return profiles that don’t depend on a $69 billion market cap re-rating tend to look earlier in the cycle. And that’s the structural argument for Maxi Doge ($MAXI), an ERC-20 meme token built around a 240-lb canine mascot and a community culture centered on high-conviction trading.
The project has raised $4.8 million at a current presale price of $0.0002831, with dynamic APY staking already live. The token’s mechanics include holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards, a Maxi Fund treasury managing liquidity and partnerships, and meme-first marketing that’s earned genuine traction in trading communities rather than just ad spend.
The tagline “never skip leg-day, never skip a pump” is stupid in the best possible way, and that’s intentional. For traders sizing a small speculative allocation, research Maxi Doge before the presale window closes.
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The post XRP Price Caught in Volatile Range, With Both Sides Ready For a Violent Coil appeared first on Cryptonews.
It appears that essentially all relief rallies in the cryptocurrency markets over the past few months have been precisely that, as the firepower is simply not sufficient to provide enough force to change the bearish trend.
The latest such example took place at the beginning of the current business week, as bitcoin was rejected after its push to $65,600 and dropped to a ten-day low of $63,000. Here are some of the potential reasons behind this.
FOMC Uncertainty
Given the timing of this correction, the most obvious first reason appears to be macro, as tomorrow is the next Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although the US central bank is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, this is shaping to be one of the least predictable decisions in recent years.
Markets, experts, and prediction platforms recently assigned roughly a one-in-three chance to a surprise rate increase as policymakers continue to confront persistent inflationary pressures. Although the CPI data for June was a lot lower than expected, the general consensus is that the reading was slightly misleading and perhaps a one-off.
Investors will closely watch and examine Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference for clues about the central bank’s approach during the remainder of the year. Bitcoin, altcoins, and other speculative assets tend to struggle when investors are uncertain about the direction of interest rates. Higher borrowing costs and rising real yields make risk-free assets more attractive, and vice versa.
As such, the first reason appears to be investors and traders de-risking before the key economic event.
Broader Market Crash
Bitcoin is not isolated from the other markets, especially those also considered risk-on. As such, whenever there are big moves in those, it tends to follow along (or sometimes lead). The past 24-36 hours have been quite painful for Asian stocks, for example. South Korea’s KOSPI has plummeted by double digits, going down from 6,767 to 6,023.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 has slipped by over 4% within the same timeframe, dipping from 64,800 to 62,365. The situation in the US was not much more positive. Although the actual big indexes remained flat, some of the most prominent names, such as Nvidia and Micron, posted painful losses of up to 5%.
Last but not least was gold. The precious metal peaked at almost $4,120 yesterday, but it was rejected and dumped by just over $100 in hours.
ETF Outflows
We will list this as the third and last major reason because the actual outflow value was not as significant as it used to be during the June crash, for example. Yes, Monday was another day in the red, but the net outflows remained at under $12 million. This is essentially nothing compared to the $100 million+ withdrawals investors made regularly last month.
Nevertheless, it still continued a red streak that began last Thursday when the funds lost $225 million and on Friday when the outflows topped $240 million.
What’s Next?
Ali Martinez warned earlier today that the Bitcoin 3-day Bollinger bands have squeezed tightly, which generally precedes major price moves. The last few months have been quite dull in terms of volatility, and he noted that such periods are “often followed by a major price expansion.”
Ted Pillows believes the next big support for BTC remains at $62,000, which, if broken to the downside, will lead to a very dark future and perhaps another leg down to under $60,000.
On the more positive side, CW added that certain whales are “rapidly recovering their selling volume following the decline,” which could lead to a short-term bounce off. Additionally, the analyst claimed that there are no major sell walls on bitcoin’s path forward if it indeed rebounds soon.
These technical tools will definitely be used to watch, but the most important factor remains tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. BTC is likely to experience some heightened short-term volatility, no matter what the decision is.
The post 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Crashed to a 10-Day Low Today and What’s Next appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Ethereum has paused after its recent recovery, with the price action compressing beneath a key resistance area while still holding above higher lows. The current structure suggests that the market is approaching an inflection point where the next breakout or breakdown could determine the short-term direction.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, ETH remains below the long-term resistance zone between $2K and $2.15K, where the 100-day moving average continues to reinforce selling pressure. Although buyers managed to recover strongly from the June lows, the latest rejection near the 100-day MA highlights that the broader bearish structure has not yet been invalidated.
The recent pullback has brought the asset back into the $1.88K to $1.91K support zone, which now serves as the first line of defense for buyers. Holding above this area could allow another attempt toward the $2K to $2.15K resistance region, while losing it would expose the next demand zone around $1.75K to $1.8K. A deeper correction could eventually extend toward the stronger support around $1.56K to $1.65K.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows Ethereum consolidating inside a narrowing range between the white ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support, and the yellow descending trendline overhead. This compression reflects increasing indecision as buyers and sellers battle near the $1.88K to $1.91K supply zone.
As long as the price remains confined between these two trendlines, short-term volatility may stay limited. However, a breakdown below the white ascending trendline would invalidate the series of higher lows and likely trigger a decline toward the $1.75K to $1.8K demand zone. If that support also fails, the next downside target would be the broader demand area around $1.56K to $1.65K.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the yellow trendline and the nearby supply zone would improve the short-term outlook and increase the probability of another move toward the major daily resistance overhead.
Sentiment Analysis
The Spot Average Order Size metric shows that large spot orders from whale-sized participants have become increasingly active during Ethereum’s recent recovery. Given that ETH is still trading relatively close to its yearly lows, this behavior is more consistent with accumulation than aggressive distribution.
Historically, increased participation from large spot buyers near depressed price levels has often reflected long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation. While this does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal, it suggests that larger market participants are gradually accumulating exposure as Ethereum trades well below its previous cycle highs.
The post ETH Price Analysis: What Does the $2K Rejection Mean for Ethereum’s Future? appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Michael Saylor has warned that changes to Bitcoin’s consensus rules pose a greater long-term threat than rival cryptocurrencies, governments, or external competition.
Summary
- Saylor called internal rule changes Bitcoin’s “gravest threat” after the asset gained broad market recognition.
- He argued that consensus rules protect property rights, scarcity, settlement, and limits on power.
- Saylor said proposals such as BIP-110 could weaken block-space scarcity and miners’ fee revenue.
- Strategy recently joined eight companies pledging $15 million toward Bitcoin security research.
Saylor warns against capturing Bitcoin consensus
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor issued the warning in a series of X posts on Tuesday, describing Bitcoin’s consensus rules as its constitution. Those rules determine how ownership is recognized, how scarcity is maintained, how transactions settle, and what network participants can change.
“Bitcoin has won. Now it must survive victory,” Saylor wrote. “Its gravest threat is not an enemy at the gates, but corruption from within.”
He argued that changing the protocol to serve one group would infringe on the economic rights of miners, developers, investors, companies, custodians, and other users. Once one faction gains enough influence to rewrite the rules, he warned, competing groups may pursue changes through the same process.
That outcome could make protocol disputes permanent, according to Saylor. He said prolonged governance conflicts would drive away capital, slow development, weaken security, and leave Bitcoin with only a fraction of its potential.
Saylor expects Bitcoin could grow 100-fold and become part of the infrastructure supporting global capital markets. From that perspective, he argued that a poorly designed rule introduced today could restrict financial products, technologies, and economic activity that do not yet exist.
Why Saylor opposes BIP-110
Saylor’s latest comments extend his opposition to Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110, a proposed temporary soft fork intended to reduce arbitrary data stored on the blockchain.
BIP-110 supporters argue that limiting some forms of data would ease storage and verification burdens for node operators. They also want Bitcoin to remain focused on monetary transactions rather than inscriptions, tokens, or file storage.
Saylor accepts that some on-chain data may have little value or could be linked to harmful activity. However, he argues that Bitcoin cannot reliably determine the purpose behind transaction data and should not use consensus rules to decide which valid, fee-paying transactions deserve block space.
“Bitcoin does not need guardians of purity,” Saylor wrote in his July 18 article. “It needs guardians of neutrality.”
His latest X thread widened that argument beyond BIP-110. Saylor also criticized proposals that add covenant functionality or increase block capacity, saying each approach creates different risks for Bitcoin’s base layer.
Bitcoin fee market and network security at stake
According to Saylor, restrictions on valid transactions could reduce competition for block space and weaken the fee market. Larger blocks, meanwhile, could dilute block-space scarcity while raising the bandwidth and hardware costs required to operate a node.
He also argued that covenants would make Bitcoin’s consensus rules more complex and introduce additional attack surfaces. These claims represent Saylor’s assessment of the proposals rather than an established consensus among Bitcoin developers.
Transaction fees will become increasingly important to miners as the block subsidy falls by half roughly every 210,000 blocks. Saylor warned that suppressing fee demand could reduce the income available to miners and weaken the financial incentives protecting the network.
His preferred approach is to keep the base layer simple, neutral, scarce, and secure. Developers can then build new functions through second-layer networks and applications, where adoption remains voluntary and failures have a more limited effect.
Strategy backs $15 million security effort
Saylor’s stance carries added relevance for US investors because Strategy has built its corporate model around holding Bitcoin and promoting enterprise adoption. He recently argued that companies are necessary for Bitcoin to develop into a global monetary network, placing corporate participation at the center of its next stage.
Strategy also joined Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Galaxy in forming the Bitcoin Security Consortium.
The nine firms pledged a combined $15 million over three years to support developers and researchers working on Bitcoin security, including preparations for potential quantum-computing threats. Members will direct their funding independently, while the consortium says it will neither control Bitcoin development nor take positions on individual protocol changes.
Saylor said upgrades should remain rare, conservative, and driven by necessity. His latest intervention places protocol restraint alongside corporate adoption and security funding as central parts of his long-term Bitcoin strategy.
Silver prices have regained strong upward momentum, climbing toward multi-year highs as investors return to safe-haven assets amid renewed geopolitical tensions. The precious metal recently surged more than 3% to around $58.92 per ounce, reversing an earlier pullback and moving back within striking distance of the key $60 psychological level.
The latest rally has been fueled by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, while investors are also preparing for fresh US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Together, these developments could determine whether silver extends its rally or pauses after one of its strongest advances in recent weeks.
Geopolitical Tensions Lift Silver Back Toward Multi-Year Highs
Silver rallied sharply after reports of renewed instability surrounding the US-Iran conflict increased demand for defensive assets. Spot prices climbed above $59 after briefly falling to around $58 earlier in the week, highlighting how quickly sentiment shifted back in favor of precious metals.
The rebound places silver comfortably above the important $58 to $56 support zone, an area that has become increasingly significant from a technical standpoint. Holding above this range suggests buyers remain active despite heightened volatility across financial markets.
Concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices have also supported precious metals. As geopolitical uncertainty increases, investors often seek assets that can preserve value during periods of market stress, and silver has benefited alongside gold.
Although industrial demand continues to play an important role in silver’s long-term outlook, the latest gains have largely been driven by safe-haven buying. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, the metal could make another attempt to break above the recent highs near $61.
CoinCodex Silver Price Prediction
According to the latest CoinCodex Silver price prediction, the precious metal could transition from its current period of strength into a prolonged correction throughout late 2026 and 2027.
The forecast remains relatively constructive in July 2026, with prices projected to fluctuate between $45.84 and $57.67 and average levels near $51.75. While that would represent only a modest decline from current prices, the model suggests downside pressure gradually builds as the year progresses.
Momentum is expected to weaken considerably during the second half of 2026. Average prices are projected to fall into the mid-$40 range in August before declining toward roughly $35 in September. October and November continue that trend, with forecasts pointing to average prices around $32 as bearish momentum strengthens.
The outlook becomes even more cautious during 2027. CoinCodex projects average prices falling below $26 in January before slipping toward the low-$20 range during the spring months. By June and July 2027, the model forecasts average prices between approximately $15 and $17, making it the weakest period of the entire projection.
The post Silver Price Prediction: Can Safe-Haven Demand Push Silver Above $60? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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Changpeng Zhao (CZ Binance) publicly backed a crypto license passporting system across ASEAN at the ASEAN Tech Summit Manila 2026 on July 28, arguing that firms already licensed in one member state should face only a streamlined approval process, not a full re-application, to operate across the rest of the bloc.
The proposal, if adopted, would materially reduce compliance overhead for crypto and stablecoin service providers targeting Southeast Asia’s fragmented regulatory landscape.
Speaking during the “One ASEAN, One Digital Economy” fireside chat alongside FinTech Alliance PH founding chair Lito Villanueva, CZ endorsed Villanueva’s idea of license portability across the region.
Regulators would retain the right to review applicants entering their jurisdiction, but the threshold would be fundamentally lower than starting from scratch in every market.
See you all tmr, in Manila
https://t.co/KOkXZmVoea
— CZ
BNB (@cz_binance) July 26, 2026
“I think that’s mostly a political problem,” Zhao said of cross-border regulatory coordination, adding that the underlying technology posed no meaningful obstacle.
He argued that allowing more licensed platforms to compete regionally would improve services and reduce costs for consumers, a straightforward pro-competition case that sidesteps the harder question of how to get nine politically distinct regulators to agree on mutual recognition standards.
Bitcoin News: Why Regulatory Fragmentation Is a Real Cost for ASEAN Crypto Firms
The problem Zhao is identifying is structural. Southeast Asia currently has no bloc-wide passport for crypto companies – each ASEAN member state runs its own digital asset licensing regime, with separate AML requirements, conduct rules, and capital standards.
A firm seeking a genuine regional presence must run parallel licensing processes across multiple jurisdictions simultaneously, which scales compliance costs in a way that disadvantages smaller, well-regulated operators relative to larger incumbents.
The regulatory framework Zhao described mirrors the EU’s MiCA model directly. Under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, a crypto-asset service provider authorized in one EU member state can passport its services across all 27 member states by notifying its home regulator of the countries and services involved, no fresh application required.
CZ referenced the MiCA architecture as the functional template for what ASEAN could build, and the comparison is structurally apt even if the political dynamics differ substantially between a treaty-based union and a looser regional grouping.
The ESMA implementation timeline for the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
The argument around Crypto regulation fragmentation being primarily political rather than technical carries weight here. Brad Garlinghouse has made a parallel case in the US context, framing regulatory incoherence as the primary drag on institutional crypto adoption, a problem of legislative will, not technical incapacity.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
ASEAN Already Has Passporting Precedents in Adjacent Markets
The idea is not without regional precedent. The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum’s Collective Investment Schemes Framework, operationalized in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand in 2014, with the Philippines joining in 2021, allows a fund authorized in its home jurisdiction to be offered in participating host markets through a streamlined authorization process rather than full reregistration.
The ACMF Pass extends a similar fast-track model to investment advisers across participating jurisdictions.
These frameworks are narrower than those proposed by Zhao and Villanueva and remain subject to host-market requirements, but they establish that ASEAN regulators have already accepted the logic of mutual recognition in principle. Crypto-specific passporting would require agreement on supervision standards and consumer protection floors that don’t yet exist at the bloc level, but the institutional machinery for building them does.
For traders watching Binance’s regulatory trajectory, the Manila remarks fit a broader pattern of the exchange positioning itself in Asia as its primary licensing growth market. Ripple’s multi-jurisdictional expansion strategy illustrates the same operational reality CZ is addressing: operating at scale across Southeast Asia requires either accepting full licensing overhead in every market or pushing regulators toward a lighter mutual-recognition model.
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The post Inside CZ Binance Plan to Turn ASEAN Into Crypto Federation appeared first on Cryptonews.
JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are developing a shared tokenized deposit network that could bring round-the-clock blockchain payments to the regulated US banking system.
Summary
- Four major US banks are jointly developing an interbank tokenized deposit network.
- The Clearing House is targeting a launch in the first half of 2027.
- Multinational companies will initially receive access to programmable treasury and cross-border payment tools.
- Banking groups are separately seeking tighter stablecoin reward rules under the CLARITY Act.
Four US banks move tokenized deposits onto one network
The Clearing House, a payments company jointly owned by major commercial banks, will operate the planned network. It aims to let participating institutions clear and settle tokenized deposits at any time while connecting blockchain-based activity with existing payment rails.
Tokenized deposits represent claims against money held at a commercial bank. Unlike stablecoins, the underlying funds remain within the regulated banking system and receive the same legal treatment as conventional deposits.
The network will initially serve multinational corporations. Its proposed uses include programmable treasury operations, real-time liquidity management, automated payments and cross-border transfers.
“This is a big move for the banks,” The Clearing House CEO David Watson said while discussing the project.
The initiative has support from more than a dozen other institutions, including BNY, HSBC, PNC, Santander, TD Bank, Truist and U.S. Bank. A blockchain provider has not yet been selected, according to earlier reporting.
Shared deposit tokens create a bank-led stablecoin rival
JPMorgan and Citigroup already operate separate blockchain payment services, but the new project would allow tokenized money to move between different banks.
JPMorgan’s Kinexys platform processes more than $7 billion in average daily volume and has handled over $40 trillion since its launch. Citi Token Services operates in the United States, United Kingdom, Singapore and Hong Kong, where it has transferred billions of dollars through Citigroup’s network.
A shared system could remove the limits of these closed networks. JPMorgan Payments co-head Max Neukirchen said a regulated market-infrastructure solution for clearing and settling tokenized deposits was needed to scale institutional on-chain payments.
Stablecoins already provide 24-hour transfers, programmable settlement and access across blockchain networks. About $263 billion in stablecoins are in circulation, giving crypto-native payment providers an established market that banks must now address.
Deposit tokens would offer similar settlement functions while keeping customers’ money on bank balance sheets. However, the banks must agree on common technical and operating standards despite competing for many of the same corporate clients.
CLARITY Act dispute raises the stakes for US banks
The network is taking shape as US banking groups pressure the Senate to tighten stablecoin provisions in the CLARITY Act.
The American Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America and 76 state banking associations have asked lawmakers to prevent crypto platforms from offering incentives that function like interest on deposits.
Current language would prohibit interest-like returns on stablecoins held passively but permit rewards tied to payments and other qualifying activity. Banking groups argue that crypto companies could use these incentives to draw money away from banks, reducing the deposits available for consumer and business lending.
Goldman Sachs has split from the wider banking lobby over whether that disagreement should delay the bill. CEO David Solomon supports advancing the CLARITY Act despite calling it imperfect, arguing that establishing a federal market structure would provide greater certainty for digital asset development.
His position contrasts with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and other banking executives who have warned that the reward provisions could place regulated banks at a competitive disadvantage. Goldman’s support for advancing the bill does not necessarily mean it endorses every stablecoin provision.
Tokenized deposit network targets first-half 2027 launch
The Clearing House plans to make the system available to US financial institutions beyond its initial participants, potentially allowing smaller banks to access shared blockchain payment infrastructure.
Development will now depend on selecting the underlying technology, agreeing on operating standards and connecting the network with existing bank systems. The target remains the first half of 2027, although the participating institutions have not announced a specific launch date.
Multinational companies will provide the first test of whether regulated deposit tokens can match the speed and programmability of stablecoins without moving funds outside the banking sector.
Google is no longer racing OpenAI and Anthropic to the same finish line. Its rivals want AI that improves itself. Google wants AI that understands the real world.
The split is easy to miss, because Google still ships models and still makes money. But its newest release landed 10th on one independent ranking.
What Google Has and Has Not Said About the AI Race
Google released Gemini 3.6 Flash on July 21. The pitch was speed and cost, not raw power.
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The model produces 17% fewer tokens than the version before it, Google’s blog said. Tokens are the small chunks of text an AI writes. Fewer tokens means a cheaper answer.
Power is another matter. One published reading of the Artificial Analysis index placed the model 10th. Every other major lab ranked above it.
Google is not standing still. It has begun its biggest training run yet, for Gemini 4. A larger model, Gemini 3.5 Pro, is still in testing with partners.
Sundar Pichai has pointed to a different prize. He has tied the roadmap to personalized agents rather than leaderboard wins.
Investors are less relaxed. Alphabet shares fell 6% in June after two senior researchers left for rivals.
Inside DeepMind’s Bet on World Models
A world model is AI that learns how physical things behave. Gravity, motion, cause and effect. It predicts what happens next in a room, not the next word in a sentence.
DeepMind’s own website shows the bet. It files Genie 3 and Gemini Robotics under a heading for world models and embodied AI, meaning software that controls machines.
In May the lab extended Project Genie to Street View. It also released SIMA 2, an agent that learns by playing inside virtual 3D worlds.
OpenAI and Anthropic are aiming somewhere else entirely. They want recursive self-improvement, shortened to RSI.
In plain terms, that is AI clever enough to build the next, better AI. Then that one builds the one after it.
Writer Alberto Romero argued on Tuesday that Google left this race on purpose.
“Hassabis is betting on something else: world models. Models that can understand and simulate the real world, not just predict the next token,” Alberto Romero wrote in a recent analysis.
Google has said no such thing. Demis Hassabis, who runs Google DeepMind, has never ruled out RSI in public.
Why a Rival Co-Founder Says DeepMind Is the Outlier
The sharpest outside read came from a rival, months earlier.
Jack Clark co-founded Anthropic. On May 4 he published an essay on where AI is heading.
He gave a 60% chance that AI can run its own research by the end of 2028. He put 2027 at 30%.
Clark then asked which labs are chasing that goal. DeepMind, he wrote, “appears to be the most circumspect of the big three.” Circumspect means cautious.
His evidence came from DeepMind itself. He cited its 2025 paper on AI safety, co-written by co-founder Shane Legg.
Anthropic is far bolder. It reported in a recursive self-improvement study that Claude wrote more than 80% of the code it ships by May 2026.
Before February 2025, that share was near zero.
The firm has documented AI building better AI. On one speed test, its models delivered a 52-fold gain in April, against 2.9-fold a year earlier.
A skilled engineer needs four to eight hours to manage a fourfold gain on the same task.
Why Google Might Not Have Quit the AI Race at All
Two facts cut against the whole idea:
- Google leads the test that comes closest to measuring AI research skill.
MLE-Bench asks a model to build machine-learning systems on its own. A Gemini 3 model scored 64.4% in February. That was the best result at the time. Google put 3.6 Flash at 63.9% in July.
Labs that quit a field rarely top its scoreboard.
- Google is nowhere near absent from the market.
Pichai told investors the Gemini app has 950 million monthly users. Google did skip NVIDIA’s open AI alliance this month. So did OpenAI and Anthropic.
Can Google Afford to Wait?
The case for patience is simple. Search ads pay for everything else, so DeepMind can take its time.
Alphabet’s own filing shows that cushion getting thinner.
Revenue reached $119.8 billion in the June quarter, up 24%, according to results filed July 22. Search alone brought in $63.3 billion.
Then comes the spending. Alphabet poured $44.9 billion into data centers and equipment in three months. That is roughly double a year earlier.
The result was negative free cash flow of $5.86 billion. Free cash flow is what is left after the building bills are paid.
That figure was positive $10.1 billion in March. In December it was positive $24.6 billion.
Alphabet covered the gap by selling $49.6 billion of new shares in June. It borrowed another $20.3 billion.
Long-term debt doubled in six months, from $46.5 billion to $98.2 billion.
A line in the accounts covering shared AI research lost $5.79 billion, up from $3.37 billion. Patience now carries a price tag.
What to Watch Over the Next 30 Days
- Whether Gemini 3.5 Pro ships, and how it ranks
- Whether DeepMind shows world-model results tied to Gemini 4
- Whether Alphabet cash flow turns positive again in September
- Whether Hassabis answers the self-improvement question directly
Gemini 4 is the real test. If world models work where coding agents stall, the slow pace will look smart rather than scared.
The next earnings report will show how long Alphabet can keep paying to find out.
The post Why Google May Have Quietly Left the AI Race to OpenAI and Anthropic appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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