Citadel told the New York court the decision to stop pursuing the case had nothing to do with the merits of its claims. Instead, it said it had already prevailed in a separate London arbitration against Portofino’s founders on employment-related claims including breach of contract, unlawful means conspiracy and deceit, winning damages and legal costs that the High Court later recognized and made enforceable.

Despite that victory, Citadel said it has been unable to collect the award, leading to the bankruptcy petition against Lancia.

In the filing, Citadel says Lancia owes 5.98 million pounds of the 2025 award by the London Court of International Arbitration as well as interest and costs.

The petition says the awards were recognized by England’s High Court in February, a statutory demand served in April went unsatisfied, and Lancia’s attempt to set aside that demand was dismissed in May.

Citadel estimates it holds security worth only about 21,886 pounds against the debt, mostly small bank accounts and minority interests in French companies.

In the letter accompanying the U.S. dismissal, Citadel also noted that Lancia is subject to a worldwide freezing order and faces bankruptcy proceedings, adding that evidence presented at a June 26 High Court hearing failed to persuade the court that his ownership stake in Portofino held significant value.

Bitcoin sentiment is sliding to a level Lyn Alden describes as the weakest she has personally seen, as the latest market phase has become more corporate- and leverage-influenced rather than driven by fresh spot demand. In an interview with Natalie Brunell on Tuesday, Alden argued that Bitcoin’s long-term case cannot depend on outside saviors—it must be able to “survive on its own merits.”

The comments also arrive as Strategy, Michael Saylor’s flagship corporate Bitcoin vehicle and the largest public holder, disclosed another round of selling. Strategy’s Monday weekly 8-K filing said it sold 3,588 BTC, a disclosure that has intensified scrutiny of how corporate structures and yield-style products interact with Bitcoin’s volatility.

Key takeaways

• Lyn Alden said current Bitcoin sentiment is at the lowest point she has seen, and she expects a year that is “flat to up” rather than “flat to down.”
• Alden emphasized Bitcoin must stand on core fundamentals—liquidity, permissionless transfer, and value storage—rather than new external catalysts.
• While Alden sees a role for Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, she cautioned that BTC-linked products can encourage leverage.
• On protocol change proposals, Alden urged caution and criticized the “existential issue” framing used to push faster rule modifications.

Why Alden thinks this cycle feels different

Alden contrasted the present mood with the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell as low as the mid–$16,000 range but investor enthusiasm remained comparatively steadier. In her view, the current drawdown has come alongside a fading of narratives and a market cycle that has leaned more heavily on corporate balance sheets and institutional-style structures.

She also flagged investor disappointment as a contributor to sentiment deterioration. Even so, Alden laid out a tempered base case: she does not expect Bitcoin to print a new all-time high within the year, while also acknowledging the asset’s historic volatility leaves room for a sharp upside move.

Her “hope” scenario is not a fast recovery to new highs, but the prevention of further sustained declines—what she described as a “lack of new bottoms in place.” Technically, she suggested the broader path could look more sideways to upward rather than trending lower, though she did not frame that as a guarantee.

Strategy’s sale and the debate over leverage

Corporate adoption has been one of Bitcoin’s dominant themes in recent cycles, and Strategy has been central to that story. However, Alden said Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has increasingly become part of the market’s trading and positioning toolkit—especially for investors who want exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding BTC directly or taking on the full volatility profile.

At the same time, she warned that the presence of higher-yielding BTC-linked products can unintentionally pull more leverage into the system. That dynamic matters because the more investors rely on layered exposure structures, the more sensitive performance can become when market conditions tighten—even if the underlying asset remains unchanged.

Her remarks land amid ongoing discussion about Strategy’s capital structure and the perceived risks tied to Bitcoin-backed preferred stock products. Alden characterized recent actions by Strategy to rebuild reserve coverage and add safeguards as reasonable reactions to market stress, but she also stressed that the long-term behavior of such products still ultimately depends on Bitcoin’s price action.

In practical terms, Alden’s framing suggests investors should distinguish between a product’s access benefits and the risk it may add to portfolio behavior during drawdowns. For traders, that translates into being more precise about the source of exposure—spot versus structured yield versus leverage—and how each tends to react when sentiment breaks.

BIP-110 and Alden’s stance on faster protocol changes

Alden also addressed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110), a proposal aimed at reducing network spam by restricting data-heavy transactions, including those used for storing images. Her position was notably cautious: she said she is generally wary of efforts to change Bitcoin’s rules quickly, arguing that some proposals could increase network complexity or alter existing safeguards.

Rather than rejecting technical scrutiny outright, Alden said she would evaluate the arguments for and against protocol changes. Still, she criticized how some proposals are presented publicly, especially when they are framed as an “existential issue” for Bitcoin. In her view, that kind of language exaggerates the stakes and can amount to “incorrect marketing.”

The takeaway from her comments is not simply that all rule changes are bad, but that the way proposals are communicated can affect how investors and users interpret urgency—particularly during periods when sentiment is already fragile.

What to watch next

With sentiment at a cycle-low level in Alden’s assessment and Strategy’s selling now firmly in focus, traders and long-term holders will likely watch whether Bitcoin stabilizes without additional “new bottoms,” and whether BTC-linked structured products become a source of fragility—or a stabilizing bridge—during the next leg of market direction.

Bitcoin is facing its weakest sentiment cycle yet, according to Lyn Alden, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomist who said the asset must stand on its own as Strategy disclosed a $216 million Bitcoin sale earlier this week.

“I don’t think there’s anything coming to save Bitcoin,” Alden said in a Tuesday interview with journalist and Bitcoin educator Natalie Brunell, saying the asset’s long-term success must come from its own fundamentals rather than external catalysts.

“The asset just has to survive on its own merits,” Alden said, pointing to Bitcoin’s underlying properties as a liquid, permissionless way to store and send value, instead of relying on a new source of demand.

Her comments come as institutional adoption and corporate treasury strategies have become features of Bitcoin’s latest market cycle. On Monday, Strategy’s weekly 8-K filing disclosed that it sold 3,588 BTC.

Bitcoin sentiment falls to a cycle low

Alden said the current downturn feels different from the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin dropped to as low as $16,000 but enthusiasm among Bitcoin investors remained relatively strong.

“This is the lowest sentiment that I’ve personally seen on Bitcoin,” Alden said, pointing to a combination of fading narratives, a more corporate-driven market cycle and disappointment among investors.

Alden said her base case is that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high this year, though she acknowledged that the asset’s volatility leaves room for a sharp move higher.

“The base case that I would hope to see is just a lack of new bottoms in place” and a technical picture that points “flat to up rather than flat to down,” Alden said.

STRC found demand, but leverage remains a risk

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has come under increased scrutiny during the downturn as investors reassess the risks around its Bitcoin-backed capital structure and preferred stock products.

Alden said Strategy’s STRC preferred stock has a role for investors who want exposure to the company’s Bitcoin strategy without holding the asset directly or taking on Bitcoin’s full volatility.

Source: Matthew Sigel

She noted that STRC has become the biggest preferred security in the market, but warned that higher-yielding BTC-linked products can encourage investors to take on additional leverage.

Related: Strategy’s Bitcoin sale may give BTC a ‘durable bottom,’ Grayscale says

She added that Strategy’s recent steps to rebuild its reserve coverage and introduce additional safeguards were reasonable responses to the market stress, though the long-term performance of the product still depends on Bitcoin’s price action.

Alden pushes back on urgency around Bitcoin changes

Alden also discussed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP-110), which aims to reduce network spam by limiting data-heavy transactions, including those used to store images.

Alden said she is generally cautious about efforts to change Bitcoin’s rules quickly, warning that some proposals could make the network more complex or affect its existing safeguards.

Source: Eric Balchunas

She said she would analyze the technical arguments for and against protocol changes, but criticized the way some proposals are presented to the public. Alden argued that framing a protocol change as an “existential issue” for Bitcoin exaggerates the stakes, calling that approach “incorrect marketing.”

Magazine: Has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle? Analysts say ‘not yet’

Australian crypto exchange Swyftx says it has received an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL), giving it regulatory permission to offer certain crypto-linked products to retail customers and to provide non-cash payment services to businesses and individuals. The move is also tied to Swyftx’s stated shift away from a “spot-only” model, with management pointing to upcoming changes in Australia’s card payment surcharge rules.

According to Swyftx, the license allows it to support derivative offerings—such as crypto options and futures—for retail users, alongside authorization for non-cash payment facilities. The AFSL does not, however, cover spot crypto trading.

Key takeaways

• Swyftx has obtained an AFSL from Australia’s market regulator, enabling retail derivatives and non-cash payment services.
• The company says it does not intend to remain a pure spot exchange, citing room in crypto payments after credit-card surcharge reforms.
• From Oct. 1, Australian merchants are set to face new restrictions on Visa and Mastercard debit/credit surcharges, potentially pushing demand toward alternative payment rails.
• AFSL compliance obligations are expected to become central for most crypto firms, with legislation setting an April 9, 2027 deadline.

Swyftx’s AFSL enables derivatives and payment-facility services

Swyftx announced on Wednesday that it has been granted its AFSL, positioning it among a growing group of crypto companies already operating under Australia’s broader financial-services framework. The license places Swyftx in the same regulatory category as exchanges previously licensed for comparable activities, including Coinbase, BTC Markets and Crypto.com.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Swyftx interim co-CEO Andrea Yuen said the firm does not plan to remain “a pure crypto spot exchange.” Instead, Swyftx is aiming to broaden its product set and pursue opportunities in payments—particularly in areas it believes could benefit from local regulatory and cost changes affecting card payments.

Operationally, the AFSL matters because it expands what Swyftx can offer within the Australian market. As the company described, the license supports two major directions: derivative products for retail customers (for example, options or futures) and non-cash payment facility authorization, which could allow Swyftx to serve both business and retail clients with payment services.

At the same time, Swyftx’s AFSL does not cover spot crypto trading. That distinction is important for users and investors: the licensing step is not simply a blanket endorsement of all crypto activities, but a permission tied to specific regulated functions.

Why card surcharge changes are driving a push toward crypto payments

A core part of Swyftx’s strategy is directly linked to expected changes to how merchants can recover card payment costs. From Oct. 1, Australian businesses will be banned from adding surcharges to Visa and Mastercard debit and credit card payments. For many merchants, that removes a common mechanism used to pass card transaction costs to customers.

In that environment, Swyftx says it sees potential for alternative payment rails—specifically crypto and stablecoins. Yuen told Cointelegraph that crypto payments and stablecoins could provide merchants with an opportunity to lower transaction costs they may otherwise have to absorb.

The logic is straightforward: when a payment network’s pricing can’t be “passed through” via surcharges, businesses may look for ways to reduce net payment expenses. Stablecoins and regulated crypto payment flows are often discussed as one possible alternative, but the practical impact will depend on merchant adoption, integration pathways, and how regulators supervise payment-related activity.

For the market, Swyftx’s license could also help it participate in payments-based competition rather than relying only on trading volumes. If merchants do move search for cheaper rails following Oct. 1, exchanges with the right authorization may find new distribution channels—especially where stablecoin settlement can be paired with compliant payment tooling.

AFSL deadline pressure builds as ASIC extends a licensing grace window

Beyond Swyftx’s immediate products, the AFSL is tied to a wider regulatory timetable for the Australian crypto sector. Legislation passed in April requires most crypto firms to obtain an AFSL from April 9, 2027, according to earlier coverage by Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/australia-pass-bill-mandate-crypto-exchange-license).

Until now, many crypto exchanges were required primarily to maintain anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) controls rather than full financial-services licensing duties. With the AFSL framework, firms are expected to follow compliance standards comparable to other regulated financial institutions.

Yuen described the shift as “an enormous responsibility to be a regulated financial service,” underscoring that obtaining the license is not simply a marketing milestone—it comes with ongoing obligations.

At the regulator level, ASIC has also been working to manage the transition. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission recently extended its grace period for crypto businesses to apply for an AFSL until Sept. 30. ASIC said it has received around 30 license applications from crypto businesses since October last year (ASIC statement: https://www.asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/news-items/asic-extends-no-action-position-for-digital-asset-businesses-to-30-september-2026/).

Only a limited number of crypto exchanges have so far obtained AFSLs, including Coinbase, BTC Markets, Crypto.com and KuCoin, based on prior Cointelegraph reporting (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-eyes-australian-financial-license-through-acquisition).

For investors, traders, and builders, this is a key inflection point: licensing progress can influence which firms can expand into derivatives retail distribution and regulated payment services, while laggards may be constrained by timelines and regulatory uncertainty as April 2027 approaches.

Australian retail adoption remains resilient as licensing expands

While regulatory licensing advances, local interest in crypto assets continues to be reflected in consumer surveys. A survey cited by Swyftx’s update from Independent Reserve suggested that 33% of Australians now own cryptocurrency, up from 31% in 2025.

Independent Reserve CEO Adrian Przelozny said younger Australians are increasingly confronting economic pressures that make traditional wealth-building options—particularly home ownership—feel less attainable. He argued that, as a result, many are exploring alternative assets, with cryptocurrency viewed as one option that has historically delivered stronger returns than traditional portfolios.

The same survey indicated that Bitcoin remains the dominant digital asset among respondents, with 71% reporting they hold it.

Taken together, rising participation and accelerating licensing could create a broader market environment: more consumers may seek regulated access, while exchanges that secure AFSL permissions may be better placed to deepen product offerings and payment-related services.

Looking ahead, readers should watch how Swyftx and other newly licensed firms translate AFSL capabilities into real payment integrations and derivative offerings, and whether merchant adoption follows the Oct. 1 surcharge rule change as expected. The regulatory transition toward 2027 will also be a determining factor in how quickly Australia’s crypto market can diversify beyond spot trading.

Key Highlights

• The electric vehicle manufacturer executed a public offering of 75 million shares priced at $15.50 each, generating approximately $1.2 billion in gross capital.
• Shares plummeted more than 18% during Tuesday’s session, followed by an additional ~4% decline in Wednesday’s pre-market trading amid shareholder dilution concerns.
• Second-quarter revenue projections range between $1.55B and $1.65B, surpassing Wall Street’s consensus estimate of approximately $1.45B.
• The automaker increased its 2026 annual delivery guidance to 65,000–70,000 units from the previous 62,000–67,000 range.
• Multiple Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan and Mizuho, recently downgraded the stock to Sell, highlighting capital expenditure concerns and EV subsidy elimination risks.

Shares of Rivian (RIVN) experienced a dramatic decline exceeding 18% during Tuesday’s trading session following the company’s announcement of a 75 million-share public offering priced at $15.50 per share, generating roughly $1.2 billion in gross capital. The selloff continued into Wednesday’s pre-market hours, with shares falling an additional 4.7%.

Rivian Automotive, Inc., RIVN

The pricing of the equity raise came in below recent trading levels, and the substantial influx of new shares severely dampened investor sentiment. Investment banks underwriting the deal also secured a 30-day option to purchase up to 11.25 million additional shares. The transaction is scheduled to finalize on Thursday, July 9.

Rivian indicated the capital raised will support general corporate activities, with a designated portion allocated to satisfy requirements under its loan facility with the U.S. Department of Energy.

The timing of the offering came after shares had rallied on stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter delivery performance. The company delivered 12,194 vehicles during the period, exceeding both internal projections and JPMorgan’s estimate of 11,000 units.

Concurrent with the capital raise announcement, Rivian disclosed preliminary Q2 revenue guidance of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion, meaningfully above the Wall Street consensus forecast of around $1.45 billion.

The electric vehicle maker also elevated its full-year 2026 delivery outlook to a range of 65,000–70,000 vehicles, representing an increase from its previous guidance of 62,000–67,000 units.

Analyst Community Remains Skeptical

Notwithstanding the encouraging operational metrics, the analyst community maintains a cautious stance. Three separate firms issued Sell recommendations on RIVN shares in recent trading sessions.

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta maintained his Sell rating, highlighting the company’s substantial capital expenditure requirements as a primary risk factor, despite the delivery beat.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh similarly retained his Sell recommendation, forecasting that battery-electric vehicle sales could remain flat on a year-over-year basis. His pessimistic outlook stems from the termination of federal EV subsidies in the United States.

Jefferies adopted a somewhat more balanced perspective, upgrading its price target to $17 from $16 while maintaining a Hold rating. The firm observed that the equity offering followed a significant stock price appreciation triggered by the Q2 delivery data.

Layoffs Compound Investor Concerns

Earlier this week, news of workforce reductions added further pressure on the stock. Reports indicate that Rivian eliminated hundreds of positions, primarily concentrated in service and customer-facing operations — representing less than 2% of total headcount.

The company continues to operate at a loss and is banking on its more competitively priced R2 SUV to accelerate sales volume. The R2 model debuted in March, with customer orders commencing last month.

Broader market conditions provided no relief. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2% on Tuesday amid semiconductor sector weakness, while the S&P 500 retreated 0.5%.

Among 17 analysts providing coverage over the past three months, the consensus recommendation stands at Hold, comprising eight Buy ratings, five Hold ratings, and four Sell ratings. The mean price target of $18.24 suggests approximately 11% potential upside from present trading levels.

Crypto markets fell Wednesday after fresh airstrikes in Iran spurred a risk-off mood among investors. The CoinDesk 20 Index dropped 2.9% since midnight UTC, with all but one token declining.

Addressing NATO leaders, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over” and said negotiating with Iran is a “waste of time,” though talks continue, according to news reports.

The U.S. Central Command said it hit more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats to prevent them disrupting international shipping and Iran retaliated with attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.

The Dollar Index (DXY) rose as the reignited tensions are likely to stoke inflation concerns. Bitcoin BTC$62,335.66 and ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies, fell more than 2%.

There were sharper losses across the more illiquid altcoin sector as JUP, ETHFI and PUMP all losing more than 5%.

U.S. equities also took a hit. Nasdaq 100 index futures and S&P 500 index futures tumbled as much as 1.5%.

Derivatives positioning

• Despite bitcoin’s slide to $62,000, it’s still up 6% this month and there is some good news on the derivatives front: Traders don’t look to be shorting the rally. Open interest (OI) in futures has dropped to 730K BTC from over 740K BTC a day ago.
• Ether is not faring so well. Open interest has held steady at around 13.95 million tokens despite the spot-price drop triggering liquidations of bets worth $90 million. BTC 24-hour liquidations tally just over $100 million.
• The sell-off in Canton Network’s CC token has accelerated, with the token’s price slipping to its lowest level since January just as futures open interest rises to a two-week high. This combination points to the possibility of traders shorting the decline, especially since funding rates remain deeply negative, close to -20%.
• Broadly speaking, the bear grip has tightened across major cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, as indicated by their negative 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta. A negative reading indicates that price action is being driven by traders placing market orders rather than passive limit orders.
• The latest decline in BTC and ETH seems to have spurred hedging demand for options, as their respective 30-day implied volatility indexes, BVIV and EVIV, are up for the second straight day.
• Options skew on Deribit confirms that. The one-week skew has jumped to nearly 20% in favor of puts from 16% a day ago. Puts offer protection against a price slide in the underlying asset, in this case, BTC. The same is true for ether.
• However, 24-hour volume figures show the highest activity in BTC call options at the $80,000 strike price.

Token talk

• The altcoin market is reeling, with $350 million worth of the $450 million in liquidations being attributed to altcoin trading pairs, according to CoinGlass.
• Solana (SOL) has now completely retraced a rally that began on July 2, trading back at $77 after challenging $84 on Monday.
• One token bucking the bearish sentiment is MORPHO. The DeFi token is up by 4% since midnight as total value locked (TVL) on the protocol hit a record high 4 million ETH this week, according to DefiLlama.
• A beacon of hope for the altcoin market is that several tokens are now dipping back into “oversold” territory, with the average relative strength index (RSI) dropping to 40/100 from 47/100 on Tuesday.