Crypto World
MegaETH TVL Rises 65% in a Week, but TGE Conditions Remain Unmet
A week after the much-anticipated L2’s mainnet launch, the network is showing early liquidity gains, but traction is still below its KPIs for the MEGA token launch.
Ethereum Layer 2 MegaETH’s mainnet, which launched on Feb. 9 following a high‑profile stress test ahead of its debut, has seen total value locked climb to roughly $66.48 million as of today, Feb. 16. The total value on MegaETH represents a roughly 65% increase compared with TVL at the immediate post‑launch period, where it was around $40.3 million, data from DefiLlama shows.
Stablecoins account for the bulk of on‑chain balances, with the chain’s $99.2 million stablecoin market cap up 56% over the past week, while bridged asset TVL are about $122 million.
Decentralized crypto exchange Kumbaya is the largest app on MegaETH by value locked by a wide margin, with roughly $51 million in TVL, dwarfing other early entrants as users have parked capital in its liquidity pools since launch.
Behind Kumbaya, yield‑oriented vault Avon MegaVault, unified DEX World Markets and multi-chain lending protocol Aave collectively hold about $19 million in TVL as of press time.
Token Launch KPIs Lag
As The Defiant previously reported, MegaETH told supporters that its token generation (TGE) event for MEGA is explicitly tied to the network achieving one of three on‑chain key performance indicators after mainnet launch:
- A $500 million circulating supply of the network’s stablecoin, MegaUSD (USDM)
- At least ten “Mega Mafia” apps — the network’s first live and verified dApps — meeting usage thresholds of more than 100,000 transactions across at least 25,000 wallets
- At least three dApps generating $50,000 in daily fees for a month.
As of press time, none of the above conditions have been met, according to MegaETH’s own dashboard that tracks the network’s progress toward TGE. The “Live Mafia Apps” counter shows 5 of the required 10 apps have deployed and are live with verified contracts.
Meanwhile, USDM’s stablecoin circulation metric also sits at just about 10% of the $500 million target, with roughly 13% of that circulating supply deposited into verified smart contracts.
On the revenue front, none of the deployed dApps have hit the critical $50,000 daily fee threshold. According to the dashboard, both Kumbaya is generating $19,000 in daily fees, Cap has $13,000 in daily fees, and Avon hasn’t registered meaningful fee volume.
So, while L2’s infrastructure shows early traction with capital flows and app deployment, the core adoption milestones tied to TGE remain out of reach, at least for now.
MegaETH’s public token sale took place on Sonar in late October and was 20x oversubscribed, seeing over $1 billion in deposits competing for an allocation of the future MEGA token.
Joachim Nagel said euro-pegged stablecoins would offer the bloc more independence from US dollar-pegged coins soon to be allowed under the GENIUS Act.
Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, supported the introduction of a euro-pegged central bank digital currency (CBDC) and euro-denominated stablecoins for payments.
In remarks prepared for a speech at the New Year’s Reception of the American Chamber of Commerce in Frankfurt on Monday, Nagel said EU officials were “working hard” toward the introduction of a retail CBDC. Euro-denominated stablecoins, according to the central bank president, could also contribute to “making Europe more independent in terms of payment systems and solutions.”
“Notably, a wholesale CBDC would allow financial institutions to make programmable payments in central bank money,” said Nagel. “I also see merit in euro-denominated stablecoins, as they can be used for cross-border payments by individuals and firms at low cost.”
Nagel’s remarks come months after US President Donald Trump signed a bill into law establishing a framework for payment stablecoins in the country, potentially setting US dollar-pegged stablecoins on a path to challenge any possible rollout of a euro-pegged peer. The law is expected to be fully implemented 18 months after it was signed or 120 days after related regulations are finalized.
Related: ING Germany expands crypto ETP and ETN offerings with Bitwise, VanEck
The German central bank president’s comment on stablecoins did not include risks he mentioned last week at the Euro50 Group meeting. Nagel warned domestic monetary policy “could be severely impaired, not to mention that European sovereignty could be weakened” if US dollar-denominated stablecoins were to have significantly larger market share than a euro-pegged coin.
Stablecoin yield at issue in US bill under consideration
Washington lawmakers and White House officials have been meeting with representatives from the banking and crypto industries ahead of a potential vote on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate. The bill, expected to provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, has been dividing many crypto industry and banking leaders due to its approach to stablecoin rewards, which has yet to be finalized in the legislation.
Magazine: Brandt says Bitcoin yet to bottom, Polymarket sees hope: Trade Secrets
TLDR
- Vanguard Group increased its stake in Netflix by 0.4% in the third quarter, acquiring an additional 142,238 shares.
- The firm now owns 38,521,322 shares of Netflix, valued at $46.18 billion, representing 9.09% of the company.
- Several institutional investors, including Retirement Wealth Solutions LLC and Steph & Co., also made moves in Netflix stock.
- Analysts have adjusted their price targets for Netflix, with some lowering their projections for the stock.
- Insiders, including Cletus R. Willems and David A. Hyman, recently sold shares of Netflix, totaling over $700,000 in sales.
Vanguard Group Inc. has increased its stake in Netflix, Inc. ($NFLX) by 0.4% in the third quarter, as per the latest 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm now holds 38,521,322 shares of Netflix, reflecting an additional 142,238 shares acquired during the quarter. This move positions Netflix as the 16th largest holding in Vanguard’s portfolio, making up 0.7% of the total value.
Vanguard’s Stake in Netflix Grows
In the third quarter, Vanguard’s increase in Netflix shares signals confidence in the company’s performance. As of the most recent SEC filing, Vanguard’s stake in Netflix is valued at $46.18 billion. The firm now owns 9.09% of Netflix, a sign of its growing importance in Vanguard’s portfolio.
Other institutional investors also made moves during this period. Retirement Wealth Solutions LLC purchased a new stake in Netflix worth $28,000, while Steph & Co. increased its position by 188.9%. The combined actions of these firms suggest that many see potential in Netflix’s stock despite market fluctuations.
NFLX Stock: Analysts’ Take
Several analysts have updated their price targets and ratings for Netflix’s stock. Robert W. Baird reduced their target price from $150 to $120, while Wells Fargo & Company lowered its from $156 to $151. These adjustments reflect mixed sentiments about Netflix’s near-term outlook, but the stock continues to receive “buy” ratings from many experts.
Despite some analysts lowering their price targets, NFLX stock maintains a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. With a 50-day moving average of $88.67 and a 200-day moving average of $106.99, the stock has experienced significant volatility in the past year. Investors remain divided on the stock’s potential, as reflected in its price swings between a 1-year low of $75.23 and a high of $134.12.
Insider Activity in Netflix
In addition to institutional movements, insiders at Netflix have also been active. On February 10th, Cletus R. Willems, a company insider, sold 3,136 shares at an average price of $82.67. Similarly, David A. Hyman sold 5,727 shares on February 9th at $81.06 each, totaling over $464,000.
These insider sales are part of regular transactions within the company, but do raise questions about internal confidence. The continued insider activity might suggest a desire to capitalize on the current market conditions. However, insiders still hold a combined 1.37% of the company’s stock.
Retail investors on Coinbase continued buying dips through market volatility, even as warnings of a severe crypto winter emerged.
Since reaching a record high last October, Bitcoin has shed nearly half its value. As it continues to struggle below $70,000, the weakness is fueling fears of another crypto winter.
But despite the ongoing volatility in the market, retail activity on Coinbase has remained steady, according to Brian Armstrong.
Post-October Slump
In a recent tweet, the Coinbase chief executive said that the platform data shows retail users have continued buying despite price dips as native unit holdings across Bitcoin and Ethereum increased. Armstrong added that a majority of retail customers held balances in February that were equal to or higher than their December levels, as participation from smaller investors on Coinbase remained steady.
While retail activity appears resilient, market commentator Mippo warned that the broader market outlook remains fragile. Mippo said current conditions point to the onset of a “full-on crypto winter,” which has the potential to match the severity of the 2022 bear market or even the downturn seen in 2019. He attributed the near-term pressure to the “air gap” created by previously unsustainable valuations alongside an evolving regulatory environment.
He stated that historical crypto valuations were largely driven by speculative capital flows rather than business fundamentals, as regulatory uncertainty made it difficult for projects to generate compliant revenue or cash flows. Prices were often set by how much capital chased a limited supply of tokens tied to the most popular narratives at the time, and higher-risk themes commanded higher valuations.
According to Mippo, this framework is now breaking down as regulatory pathways for crypto projects become clearer, beginning with stablecoins and expected to extend to a broader range of tokens.
While he characterized this regulatory change as positive over the long term, Mippo said it creates challenges for projects whose valuations were built primarily on speculation. As compliant revenue generation becomes possible, he explained that market participants are increasingly focused on cash flows, which has led to a reassessment of token prices that were set too high under earlier assumptions. This helps explain why on-chain activity and fundamental usage may be growing even as token prices continue to decline, he added.
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AI Dominance Pressures Crypto
Mippo also said crypto is being “absolutely mogged by AI,” while adding that the frenzy around meme coin speculation is catching up with the industry, and that crypto failed to build useful products during that period.
As such, he estimated the reset in valuations could continue for another nine to eighteen months before broader market conditions begin to improve.
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Animoca Brands has secured a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), enabling a broader, regulated footprint for crypto activities within the emirate. The license authorizes broker-dealer services and investment management related to virtual assets in Dubai, excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre, and targets institutional and qualified investors. The public record shows the license was issued on Feb. 5, reinforcing Dubai’s ongoing push to formalize digital-asset operations under a clear governance framework. Animoca says the license strengthens its ability to engage with Web3 foundations and global institutions within a well-defined regulatory environment. The move comes as Dubai continues to position itself as a regional hub for regulated crypto activity.
Key takeaways
- Animoca Brands obtains a VARA VASP license to offer broker-dealer services and asset-management activities related to virtual assets in Dubai, focused on institutional and qualified investors.
- The license excludes the Dubai International Financial Centre, signaling a mainland-and-free-zone approach to oversight under VARA.
- The development aligns with Animoca’s broader strategy in Web3, including support for projects such as The Sandbox, Open Campus, and Moca Network, while expanding its investor access in the region.
- Dubai has a growing roster of licensed crypto operators, underscoring a deliberate shift toward a regulated, institution-friendly crypto ecosystem in the emirate.
- Animoca’s recent activity includes the January acquisition of Somo, integrating playable and tradable digital collectibles into its portfolio.
Market context: Dubai’s VARA framework is part of a broader regional trend toward regulated digital-asset markets within the UAE, with enforcement actions signaling a clear stance against unlicensed activity and marketing breaches. The emirate’s approach contrasts with looser regimes elsewhere, drawing institutional participants seeking compliant environments and predictable governance.
Why it matters
The VARA license marks a meaningful expansion point for Animoca Brands in a market that has openly courted Web3 and blockchain-driven enterprise. By enabling broker-dealer functions and asset-management capabilities under VARA’s oversight, Animoca gains a regulated on-ramp for institutional and qualified investors, potentially accelerating large-scale partnerships and liquidity channels for its portfolio companies. This is particularly relevant as the company maintains a diversified portfolio—encompassing The Sandbox, Open Campus, and Moca Network—while continuing to back early-stage projects that align with its long-term strategy in decentralized ecosystems.
For Dubai, the approval reinforces a deliberate effort to attract structured capital and sophisticated investment strategies into digital-asset ventures. The license depiction in VARA’s public register confirms a formal recognition of Animoca’s operations within the emirate and suggests a framework under which the company can collaborate with Web3 foundations and other international players—an important signal for both developers and financiers looking for regulated access to Dubai’s growing crypto infrastructure.
On the corporate side, the move dovetails with Animoca’s ongoing efforts to broaden its influence in the blockchain space. The company has been expanding its reach through portfolio expansion, strategic acquisitions, and partnerships that blend gaming, digital collectibles, and interoperable ecosystems. The Somo acquisition in January, which added playable and tradable digital collectibles to Animoca’s repertoire, underscores a strategy to combine asset-backed experiences with a regulated, institution-facing platform. This combination could help the firm monetize digital assets through more formalized channels while maintaining its emphasis on creator economies and user-owned ecosystems.
Altogether, the Dubai license positions Animoca at the intersection of regulated finance and Web3 innovation—a space that investors and builders have increasingly prioritized as crypto markets mature. The licensing choice also aligns with a broader UAE narrative of modernization and regulatory clarity, where oversight is paired with a deliberate openness to institutional participation in digital-asset markets.
What to watch next
- VARA’s ongoing oversight of licensed entities: continued monitoring of market conduct and compliance expectations for broker-dealer activities in the emirate.
- Expansion of Animoca’s regional activities: potential collaborations with Dubai-based institutions and Web3 foundations, and integration of Somo and other assets into regulated product offerings.
- Further licensing activity in Dubai: follow-on approvals for additional asset classes or service models, signaling the pace of institutional crypto adoption in the region.
- Regulatory alignment within the UAE: broader moves to harmonize crypto frameworks across Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and among allied Gulf markets.
Sources & verification
- VARA public register entry for Animoca Brands Middle East Advisory FZCO (license issued Feb. 5)
- Animoca Brands announcement: Animoca Brands secures VASP licence from Dubai’s VARA
- Animoca Brands expands portfolio with Somo acquisition
- BitGo awarded VARA broker-dealer license for its Middle East and North Africa unit
Dubai license expands Animoca’s Web3 footprint
Dubai’s VARA granted Animoca Brands a virtual-asset service provider license that unlocks broker-dealer and investment-management capabilities for virtual assets within the emirate, excluding the Dubai International Financial Centre. The license, officially issued on Feb. 5 and logged in VARA’s public register, opens the door for Animoca to serve institutional and qualified investors under VARA’s supervision. The registry entry confirms the formal scope of permitted activities and marks a notable milestone for a company whose portfolio spans The Sandbox, Open Campus, and Moca Network, along with a broad set of early-stage projects in the blockchain and gaming landscape. In comments accompanying the license, Omar Elassar, Animoca’s managing director for the Middle East and head of global strategic partnerships, described the move as a way to deepen partnerships with Web3 foundations and global institutions within a well-regulated framework.
The Dubai license is part of a broader pattern in which the emirate has actively cultivated regulated pathways for digital assets to foster institutional participation while maintaining oversight. VARA, established in 2022 to regulate asset issuance, trading, and related services across Dubai’s mainland and its free zones, has signaled a firm stance against unregistered activity. The regulator has also been active in enforcement, including financial penalties assessed against entities for unlicensed operations and marketing violations, underscoring the balance Dubai seeks between encouraging innovation and ensuring consumer protection and market integrity.
Animoca Brands’ footprint in the region extends beyond licenses. The company has built a diversified Web3 platform ecosystem that includes The Sandbox, a leading virtual world, along with Open Campus and the Moca Network. These projects are designed to integrate user-generated content, creator economies, and interoperable assets across multiple experiences. The company has also been expanding its investment thesis in digital collectibles and blockchain-based entertainment, backing a wide array of initiatives across the ecosystem.
In January, Animoca expanded its strategic capabilities by acquiring Somo, a gaming and digital-collectibles company, which brought playable and tradable collectibles into Animoca’s asset mix. The acquisition aligns with Animoca’s broader strategy of combining interactive experiences with a regulated, institution-facing platform, potentially enabling new revenue models and liquidity channels for Web3 projects within Dubai’s regulatory framework. While Somo’s integration is ongoing, the deal illustrates how Animoca intends to leverage regulatory access in Dubai to accelerate growth and broaden its reach in the Middle East’s burgeoning crypto market.
As Dubai continues to refine its regulatory approach and attract more institutional players, Animoca’s VARA license stands as a tangible signal of the emirate’s commitment to structured, compliant innovation in digital assets. For industry observers, the development highlights how major Web3 builders are moving toward regulated environments that can support scalable, investor-grade activity while preserving the decentralized and creator-centric ethos at the core of the sector.
TLDR
- Metaplanet posted a $605 million loss due to the decline in Bitcoin’s value.
- The company spent $3.8 billion on Bitcoin, purchasing the asset at an average price of $107,000 per coin.
- Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings are currently down by 37%, reflecting an unrealized loss of $1.4 billion.
- Despite the losses, the company saw an 81% increase in operating profit from its options business.
- Metaplanet continued purchasing Bitcoin even when the price exceeded $100,000, making its largest purchases in September and October.
Metaplanet, a Japanese firm that heavily invested in Bitcoin, has revealed a significant financial setback. The company announced a loss of ¥95 billion, or $605 million, for the past year. This decline follows the cryptocurrency’s steep drop in price from its all-time highs in October.
Metaplanet’s Losses Stem from Falling Bitcoin Value
The primary reason behind Metaplanet’s financial struggles lies in the falling value of its Bitcoin holdings. The firm’s 35,100 Bitcoin, which was worth $2.4 billion, has seen a dramatic decline in value. Since the company began accumulating Bitcoin 21 months ago, it has spent approximately $3.8 billion, acquiring the digital asset at an average price of $107,000 per Bitcoin.
At the current market value, Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings are down by about 37%, reflecting an unrealized loss of $1.4 billion. In the last quarter, ending December 31, the company’s Bitcoin stash lost ¥102 billion, or $664 million, in value. Despite these losses, Metaplanet’s stock price saw a minor increase to ¥326 on Monday.
Revenue from Premiums Amid the Losses
Metaplanet’s revenue model remains largely dependent on premiums from writing options. Over the course of the year, the company’s option premiums increased substantially, rising to ¥7.9 billion, or $51 million. This marks a sharp contrast to the previous ¥691 million, or $4.5 million, recorded in the prior year.
The firm has projected an 81% increase in operating profit, which it expects to come from its options business. While Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings have significantly decreased in value, this shift in focus toward its options business aims to provide some financial stability.
Bitcoin Purchases Amid the Decline
Metaplanet has continued to invest in Bitcoin even as its value fluctuated. The company made some of its largest purchases when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000. In September, Metaplanet acquired $630 million worth of Bitcoin when the price was around $106,000, followed by another purchase of $615 million in October.
In total, Metaplanet has been purchasing Bitcoin through a combination of common stock issuance and preferred shares. The company’s strategy mirrors that of Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, which has also invested heavily in Bitcoin. However, unlike Strategy, Metaplanet has introduced products like MERCURY and MARS to help mitigate market risks.
Crypto funds recorded a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, shedding $173 million, as investor caution persisted across major digital assets.
However, the pace of withdrawals has slowed markedly from the heavy selling seen in late January and early February, while select altcoins have continued to attract fresh capital.
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Crypto Outflows Persist but Slow from January Peaks
According to the latest weekly fund flows report from CoinShares, cumulative outflows over the past four weeks have reached $3.74 billion, reflecting sustained weak sentiment following earlier market volatility.
While outflows continued, last week’s figure was broadly in line with the previous week’s $187 million decline, suggesting the sharp liquidation phase may be easing.
Earlier in the cycle, digital asset funds experienced much steeper withdrawals, including roughly $1.7 billion in each of the final weeks of January.
Market activity also cooled significantly, with ETF trading volumes dropping to $27 billion, down sharply from the record $63 billion reported the week before.
The decline in turnover suggests investors may be stepping back from aggressive repositioning, even as broader uncertainty persists.
Despite the overall negative flows, sentiment improved slightly toward the end of the week. Softer-than-expected US inflation data helped spark $105 million in inflows on Friday.
“Sentiment improved slightly on Friday following weaker-than-expected CPI data,” wrote James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares.
This suggests macroeconomic signals continue to play a decisive role in shaping short-term crypto demand.
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Regional Divergence Becomes More Pronounced as Bitcoin and Ethereum Lead Withdrawals
One of the most notable trends in the latest data was a widening regional divide. The US accounted for $403 million in outflows. This made it the primary driver of the global decline.
While US investors remain cautious, potentially reflecting macro uncertainty and positioning shifts, institutions in other markets may be viewing the recent price weakness as an opportunity to accumulate.
Meanwhile, the largest digital assets continued to bear the brunt of negative sentiment. Bitcoin investment products saw $133 million in outflows, the weakest performance among major assets.
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Interestingly, short Bitcoin products also recorded outflows totaling $15.4 million over the past two weeks.
Historically, declines in demand for bearish positions have sometimes coincided with periods of market capitulation. Therefore, it may signal that the worst of the selling pressure could be nearing exhaustion.
Ethereum funds also struggled, posting $85.1 million in outflows as investors reduced exposure to the second-largest crypto. Smaller products were not immune either, with Hyperliquid seeing modest withdrawals of around $1 million.
Altcoins Show Signs of Rotation
In contrast to the broader trend, several altcoins continued to attract capital. XRP led inflows at $33.4 million, followed closely by Solana at $31 million, while Chainlink added $1.1 million.
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These inflows point to a selective rotation rather than a wholesale exit from the crypto sector. Investors appear to be reallocating toward assets perceived to have stronger narratives or relative momentum, even as exposure to larger-cap tokens declines.
Taken together, the latest data paints a picture of a market still under pressure but stabilizing compared with the intense selling seen earlier in the year.
Crypto outflows remain persistent, yet their reduced scale, coupled with regional inflows and continued interest in certain altcoins, suggests investors are adjusting portfolios rather than abandoning the asset class outright.
TLDR
- YZi Labs has filed a revised preliminary consent statement with the SEC to expand the board at CEA Industries.
- The expansion aims to place nominees who align with YZi Labs’ vision for the company’s future.
- YZi Labs raised $500 million in a private placement to build the world’s largest corporate BNB treasury.
- The company accused CEA Industries’ asset managers of attempting to shift from a BNB-only strategy to include other cryptocurrencies.
- The fallout from the treasury dispute caused CEA Industries’ stock to drop by 87%.
YZi Labs has formally filed a revised preliminary consent statement with the SEC, aiming to expand the Board of Directors at CEA Industries Inc. The expansion seeks to add new members who align with YZi Labs’ vision for the company. This move follows mounting tensions over the company’s digital asset strategy, particularly its management of the BNB treasury.
YZi Labs Pushes for Board Expansion
YZi Labs is looking to place nominees in new positions on the CEA Industries board. This move comes after a series of disagreements regarding the company’s asset management. The group has made it clear that its goal is to influence the direction of CEA Industries by installing directors who support their vision.
The push for expansion comes after a private placement raised $500 million for the company in July 2025. The capital was initially intended to build the world’s largest corporate BNB treasury. However, by the end of 2025, YZi Labs accused CEA Industries’ asset managers of trying to diversify away from a BNB-only strategy, which led to disputes within the company.
BNB Treasury Controversy Prompts Action
YZi Labs’ dispute with CEA Industries revolves around its BNB treasury management. The company had amassed over 515,000 BNB, worth $465 million in August 2025, to serve as its main reserve. However, tensions escalated in December 2025 when YZi Labs accused 10X Capital and BNC management of secretly adding other cryptocurrencies, such as Solana, into the strategy.
This shift away from a strict BNB-focused approach led to an 87% drop in CEA Industries’ stock from its post-announcement highs. The rift over the treasury strategy has now evolved into a power struggle, with YZi Labs pushing to control the company’s future by expanding the board.
SEC Review Delays Shareholder Vote
YZi Labs filed its revised preliminary consent statement with the SEC to initiate the board expansion. The filing is currently under review to ensure compliance with legal requirements for soliciting shareholder consents. Shareholders are unable to vote or submit consent forms until the SEC finishes its review process.
Once the SEC approves the filing, YZi Labs will distribute a white consent card to shareholders. This will allow shareholders to officially vote for or against the expansion of the board and the proposed new nominees.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin realized losses surpassed $2 billion daily from February 5-11, marking the highest levels in 2025
- Seven-day loss averages indicate sustained capitulation among weak hands rather than temporary selling
- S&P 500 put-call ratio reached 1.38, the highest reading since Liberation Day, signaling elevated crash risk
- Historical data shows P/C ratios above 1.1 consistently preceded major equity market declines in 2024-2025
Bitcoin investors recorded over $2 billion in daily realized losses throughout the week of February 5-11, signaling potential capitulation among market participants.
The figures represent the highest loss levels observed in 2025 as selling pressure intensifies. Analysts interpret the sustained outflows as evidence that weaker investors are exiting positions after weeks of correction.
Broader market indicators simultaneously point to elevated crash risks, creating a challenging environment for digital assets.
Capitulation Metrics Reach Critical Thresholds
Data from market analyst Darkfost reveals that realized losses have exceeded $2 billion daily since early February. The seven-day moving average maintains this elevated level, indicating persistent rather than sporadic selling. This pattern emerged after January 20, when the market shifted from accumulation to distribution mode.
The magnitude of these losses suggests genuine capitulation is underway. Investors who purchased Bitcoin at higher prices are crystallizing substantial losses rather than waiting for recovery. This behavior typically occurs when market participants lose confidence in near-term price appreciation.
However, the data requires careful interpretation due to several complicating factors. UTXO consolidation transactions can inflate realized loss figures without representing true capitulation.
Additionally, institutional movements such as recent Fidelity Investments transfers contribute to the headline numbers.
Despite record loss levels, Bitcoin prices have demonstrated unexpected resilience in recent sessions. The cryptocurrency has avoided sharp declines even as selling pressure mounts.
This divergence between realized losses and price action indicates strong support from long-term holders who refuse to sell at current levels.
Crash Warnings Compound Downside Risks
Market trader Leshka_eth has documented a troubling pattern in equity market indicators. The put-call ratio currently stands at 1.38, matching the highest reading since the Liberation Day market event. Historical precedent shows S&P 500 declines consistently follow P/C spikes above 1.1-1.2.
This ratio reflects intense hedging activity as investors purchase protective puts. Dealers who sell these options must hedge by selling index exposure through futures and exchange-traded funds.
The resulting selling pressure removes natural market support, potentially triggering self-reinforcing downward spirals.
Multiple headwinds are converging to pressure risk assets. Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve Chair nomination signals potential monetary tightening and balance sheet reduction.
The central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet could face systematic unwinding, removing liquidity from financial markets.
Global markets have already contracted sharply, with $12 trillion in losses recorded during January alone. Commodities experienced severe declines, including gold down 13% and silver plunging 37%.
Corporate earnings reports reveal deteriorating fundamentals even as valuations remain historically elevated. These conditions create an unfavorable backdrop for speculative assets like Bitcoin, where capitulation may accelerate if equity markets destabilize further.
HONG KONG — Oleg Ogienko, A7A5’s director for Regulatory and Overseas Affairs, is looking to debate anyone who accuses him of breaking any compliance laws through his stablecoin company.
Speaking to CoinDesk during Consensus Hong Kong, the public face of the Ruble-denominated stablecoin issuer A7A5 — which grew faster last year than USDT or USDC — stressed that, like any stablecoin issuer, compliance with the laws of where it is incorporated is key (in this case, Kyrgyzstan), and criminals are not welcome on the platform.
“We are fully compliant with the regulations of Kyrgyzstan. We do not do illegal things,” he said, emphasizing the issuer’s regular audits. “We have KYC procedures, and we have AML mechanisms embedded into our infrastructure. We do not violate any Financial Action Task Force principles.”
But here is the catch: A7A5’s issuing and affiliated entities, Old Vector LLC and A7 LLC, and the bank that holds the reserves, Promsvyazbank (PSB), are sanctioned by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, barring the U.S. dollar-denominated financial world from interacting with them.
So while the company’s affiliates are restricted by the U.S (whose laws underpin a majority of the global trade), being used by Russian companies to avoid sanctions is not a crime in Kyrgyzstan (where A7A5 is based) or in Russia.
A7A5 facilitates cross-border payments for Russian users facing banking restrictions, while also providing a route into USDT liquidity, the market leader, through decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols without holding dollar stablecoins directly.
In fact, the restriction became one of the driving forces behind the stablecoin’s surprising growth. It added almost $90 billion in circulating supply last year, outpacing USDT, which added $49 billion, and Circle’s USDC, which added about $31 billion, according to data from Artemis.
Going beyond sanctions
Ogienko admitted that life under sanctions puts pressure on people and limits access to some Western goods and services.
However, he argued that it has not stopped business activity or cross-border trade, describing the restrictions as an obstacle rather than an economic dead end and creating a market where A7A5 is in demand.
Ogienko said A7A5’s primary demand comes from businesses in Asia, Africa, and South America that trade with Russian exporters and importers and need cross-border payment mechanisms.
Right now, liquidity is limited because centralized exchanges won’t list the token due to the risk of secondary sanctions. DeFi liquidity pools exist where A7A5 can be swapped for USDT, though A7A5’s own dashboard says only around USDT 50,000 is available.
Ogienko says he was on the ground in Hong Kong trying to fix that, using the trip to Consensus to meet with exchanges and other blockchains — declining to name specifics — to build partnerships.
“We’ve been deployed on Tron and Ethereum, and now we are thinking about deploying on some other blockchains … we’re here to do cooperation with them,” he said.
While the firm wasn’t a sponsor at Consensus, having a U.S.-sanctioned entity at any conference could make organizers and sponsors nervous, even when its sponsorships are technically legal in some regions. This played out at Token2049 in Singapore — where A7A5 was a sponsor, organized by Hong Kong-registered BOB Group — a jurisdiction with no sanctions on Russia. BOB, however, later scrubbed references to A7A5 from the lists, after worries emerged from other sponsors.
Still, the sanctions and the politics surrounding the restrictions don’t bother Ogienko’s ambition to grow his business.
“We think that we can make the trade volumes settled in A7A5 grow … we hope that we can do more than 20% of Russia’s trade settlements with different countries in A7A5,” he said.
However, A7A5 still can’t be used in Russia, as lawmakers are still drafting stablecoin regulations.
Ogienko said that he is in contact with authorities in the country, describing the relationship as consultative and focused on blockchain regulation and financial infrastructure rather than direct government control.
“We’re not politicians. We are traders. We are businessmen,” he said, emphasizing neutrality. “We’re open for business cooperation with any country.”
Read more: Most Influential: Oleg Ogienko
Let’s be honest: if your Web3 project isn’t on social media, do you even exist? The days of Discord-only communities and airdrop farming as a marketing strategy are numbered. In 2026, social media is where the real alpha is and the platforms are evolving faster than Layer 2 gas fees after a memecoin pump.
After analyzing trends across tens of thousands of global brands, here are six predictions that will shape social media strategy in 2026, with a crypto-native lens on what it means for our industry.
1. Short-Form Video + UGC Will Dominate (Yes, Even for DeFi)
Research shows 73% of marketers are prioritizing short-form video heading into 2026, with 47% specifically focusing on UGC video content. Translation: your community’s unboxing videos and tutorial clips are worth more than your polished explainer animations.
The crypto angle: Stop making 20-minute tokenomics deep-dives nobody watches. Start amplifying the 30-second clips of community members showing their first successful swap, their hardware wallet setup, or their reaction to actually understanding what a rollup is. Authenticity beats production value always has, but now the algorithms are enforcing it.
2. Paid Media Shifts to Video and AI Conversations
Budgets are moving to Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok platforms where video storytelling and social commerce thrive. But here’s the interesting part: conversational commerce is emerging as a new frontier.
Walmart’s ChatGPT integration lets users make purchases directly in chat. Think about that for a second: AI-powered shopping, inside a conversation.
The crypto angle: This is where it gets spicy. Imagine AI agents that don’t just recommend products they execute on-chain transactions. We’re not far from “Ask Claude to swap your ETH for that NFT you’ve been eyeing.” The ad format of the future might be a persuasive AI conversation, not a banner. Crypto-native brands should be experimenting with AI-commerce integrations now.
3. AI Moves From Experimentation to Infrastructure
By 2026, generative AI won’t be a “nice to have”; it’ll be embedded in the operating layer of marketing stacks. Agentic AI systems will draft copy, test creatives, and adjust ad spend mid-campaign, all in real-time.
Direct-to-consumer businesses already post six times more content than traditional retailers. The only way to compete is AI-augmented content creation.
The crypto angle: Web3 projects are uniquely positioned here. Many crypto teams are already AI-native in their workflows. The question is whether you’re using AI agents just for content, or building them into your entire community management stack from sentiment analysis to automated governance summaries to personalized engagement. Soon, teams won’t talk about using AI. They’ll just run on it.
4. Virtual Influencers Rise (With a Reality Check)
Earlier in 2025, nearly 60% of marketers planned to increase virtual influencer collaborations. Fast forward a few months, and partnerships with AI-only influencers dropped; audience fatigue and underperformance hit hard.
The crypto angle: We’ve been here before. Remember when every NFT project had a fictional founder? The lesson: virtual creators work as hybrid collaborators, not replacements for real voices. Use AI-generated characters for scalable storytelling and visual experimentation, but anchor campaigns in authentic community members. Transparency about AI’s role isn’t optional, it’s survival.
5. Burnout Prevention Becomes Survival Strategy
Most social teams have fewer than six people managing global brand presence. Nearly half report frequent burnout. With content demands rising and budgets tightening, automation isn’t a luxury; it’s triage.
The crypto angle: Crypto social managers have it worse. You’re running 24/7 Discord servers, managing global communities across multiple timezones, and expected to respond to FUD at 3am. In 2026, the projects that retain talent will be the ones treating automation as a force multiplier—AI handles scheduling, reporting, and routine engagement while humans focus on actual community building and creative strategy. Your community manager shouldn’t be burnt out; they should be empowered.
6. Social, Commerce, and Care Fully Converge
Two-thirds of marketers now collaborate closely with commerce and care teams. The lines between customer touchpoints are blurring into a seamless experience: a TikTok ad opens into a shopping cart, a DM uncovers an upsell opportunity, a chatbot drives recurring purchases.
The crypto angle: This is Web3’s moment to shine. Social tokens, wallet-connected experiences, on-chain loyalty programs—these aren’t future concepts, they’re here. Imagine a Discord message that triggers a token-gated discount, or a Twitter Space that unlocks exclusive NFT access. The brands that connect social engagement with on-chain commerce (without the friction) will transform community from a cost center into a revenue engine.
The future of social media is AI-powered, authenticity-driven, and increasingly commerce-enabled. For crypto-native brands, this isn’t about keeping pace, it’s about leading the charge.
The projects that treat AI as infrastructure, authenticity as strategy, and community as commerce will define the new standard in Web3 engagement.
The rest will be building on Solana and posting threads about it to 47 followers.
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