Bitcoin traded cautiously just below and around the $60,000 area as the market opened for another week, with traders increasingly focused on whether that level can flip from resistance back into support. Even as broader risk sentiment improved, analysts pointed to a lack of sustained demand from spot buyers—suggesting the current range may persist until conviction returns.

Monday’s price action also reflected a tug-of-war between crypto and traditional markets. US equities started the session higher on renewed hopes for a US-Iran de-escalation, but Bitcoin’s strength did not clearly keep pace with the pickup in stocks, reinforcing the idea that traders are staying selective rather than chasing.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim $60,000 as support, leaving the market vulnerable to another range-bound push.
• Improving US risk sentiment tied to an announced US-Iran meeting hasn’t translated into clear, sustained crypto buying.
• Trading commentary suggests a “choppy” tape, with attention on potential moves toward $58,000 or $61,000 if the range breaks.
• Glassnode data indicates buyers have not shown the conviction needed for a sustained recovery, with spot activity still characterized by net selling.
• Oil-price uncertainty remains a potential headwind for crypto risk assets, according to QCP Capital’s market color.

Stocks rise on US-Iran meeting hopes, but Bitcoin holds back

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s technical battle around $60,000 continued as price strength failed to match the momentum seen in US equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both began the week higher as sentiment improved around efforts to salvage the US-Iran peace deal.

In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump said Iran had “requested a meeting,” to be held in Doha, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday. While the announcement lifted the tone for risk assets, Bitcoin remained pinned near a key level that traders have been watching for a decisive shift.

That divergence matters because, historically, Bitcoin often responds to broader liquidity conditions and risk appetite. When equities strengthen but crypto doesn’t follow through, it can signal that either (1) participants are waiting for confirmation, or (2) crypto-specific supply and positioning pressures are outweighing macro tailwinds.

Oil volatility risk stays on the radar

QCP Capital cautioned that even if US-Iran tensions appear to have “stood down for now,” the situation remains uncertain—particularly for oil, which can influence global risk appetite. In its latest Market Color analysis, QCP noted that oil prices were largely stable in the low $70s, implying cautious optimism that tensions may ease.

“However, this relatively muted market reaction also leaves significant upside risk for oil prices should supply recovery prove slower than expected.”

WTI crude had fallen below $68 per barrel for the first time since early March on Friday, but it was back above $70 at the time of writing. QCP also pointed to the likelihood of volatility staying elevated, noting that the US market is set to close on Friday and that the geopolitical situation remains fluid—factors that can amplify moves when liquidity thins.

For Bitcoin traders, this connection is practical: if oil spikes or volatility rises abruptly, it can tighten financial conditions and reduce appetite for risk assets, potentially making it harder for BTC to break out of its current range.

$60,000 remains the pivot as traders watch for range breaks

On the crypto side, short-term price action was described as “choppy,” with momentum struggling to build. Trader Daan Crypto Trades, in an update shared on X, said BTC has been trading around “previous June lows,” and that the $60,000 region has continued to cap price.

“The longer price spends moving around in this region, the bigger the following move upon a range break will be. Eyes on $58K & $61K.”

The significance of those levels is straightforward: when price repeatedly tests a range boundary without a clean breakout, traders often begin to position for an eventual expansion move. That doesn’t guarantee direction, but it raises the probability that a decisive break could be more impactful than the incremental chop seen so far.

On-chain signals point to defensive spot behavior

Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse bulletin added an on-chain dimension to the cautious tone. The analytics platform said Bitcoin buyers have “so far lacked the conviction required to establish a sustained recovery,” leaving price range-bound near local lows.

Glassnode also described the market as being in a “structural adjustment” phase, with capital contracting and participants adopting a more defensive posture. The most notable detail was its assessment of spot flows: despite increased trading activity, Glassnode reported persistent net selling.

“Spot markets are still experiencing persistent net selling despite an increase in trading activity, suggesting that available liquidity is being used primarily to distribute rather than accumulate Bitcoin at current prices.”

While Glassnode noted some signs of “more balanced” data beneath the surface, it warned that supply ownership may be shifting toward more speculative participants. According to the bulletin, that mix can increase the potential for sharper volatility swings—even if Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing around the $60,000 area.

In its summary, Glassnode concluded that a sustained recovery is likely to require a “meaningful return of buyer conviction,” citing continued defensiveness across spot order flow, derivatives positioning, and institutional demand.

That framing is useful for investors and traders because it distinguishes between two common scenarios: (1) price holding up due to technical support while demand remains weak, versus (2) price holding up because real accumulation is building. Right now, the on-chain narrative leans toward the first scenario.

Going forward, traders will likely watch whether spot net selling can fade and whether Bitcoin can convert $60,000 into support. With geopolitical headlines still capable of moving risk sentiment and oil volatility potentially reintroducing uncertainty, the next breakout may depend less on macro optimism alone—and more on whether buyer participation becomes consistent enough to break the range decisively.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which owns 847,363 BTC, just authorized up to $1.25 billion in sales of the asset. It’s a dramatic reversal of years of guidance that it wouldn’t sell its BTC.

Branding the about-face as a “BTC Monetization Program” — another entry in Saylor’s dictionary of invented terminology — the company permanently destroyed any impression that it plans to hold onto all of its BTC.

Rather than holding, Strategy now plans to aggressively sell BTC whenever it’s short on cash to pay for stock buybacks and dividends.

The immediate market reaction to the news was moderately positive.

Indeed, MSTR, the company’s common stock, and STRC, the company’s largest preferred stock, both opened for Nasdaq trading today approximately 5% higher on the news.

BTC was little changed on the news, opening within 1% of its Friday price. The company hadn’t actually sold BTC, after all. It merely announced plans to do so.

Saylor’s announcement is obviously intended to boost the company’s deteriorating stock prices after both MSTR and STRC hit 52-week lows last week.

Strategy spins its plan to sell BTC

CEO Phong Le tried to explain the company’s betrayal of prior guidance, saying the company is “evolving from one-way capital issuance to active capital management.”

Chief financial officer Andrew Kang offered a tidy slogan: “Bitcoin is capital.” Capital the company has now authorized for liquidation.

Saylor built his reputation on repeated claims that he’ll never sell BTC, even saying people could sell a kidney to HODL.

He now insists the company “remains committed to BTC as its primary treasury reserve asset.”

If Strategy sells all of the BTC authorized under its new BTC Monetization Framework, it would sell 30x more than its largest sale to date: 704 BTC in 2022.

Specifically, Strategy has authorized the sale of roughly 21,000 BTC at current prices. If those sales occur, it’s also cleared up to $1 billion in preferred share repurchases plus up to $1 billion in MSTR buybacks.

SpaceX stock has climbed nearly 4.5% to around $161 on Monday ahead of its expected Nasdaq-100 entry, even as Citadel Securities has warned that mounting risks could slow the AI-driven market rally.

According to market data, SpaceX (SPCX) shares were trading near $160 at the time of writing after gaining 4.4% during the session. The advance comes days before the company is expected to join the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7, a move that investors believe could attract billions of dollars in passive fund inflows.

Nasdaq-100 inclusion has strengthened demand expectations

With the index addition approaching, investors have continued building positions in the stock. Passive funds and exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq-100 are expected to purchase SpaceX shares once the company joins the benchmark.

Market estimates suggest the inclusion could generate almost $4 billion in passive buying, increasing liquidity and institutional ownership. Alongside the Nasdaq-100 addition, SpaceX has already secured a place in the Russell 1000 Index, although it remains ineligible for the S&P 500 because the index requires newly qualified companies to wait 12 months before being considered.

Institutional investors have also continued adding exposure. Last week, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought 45,728 SpaceX shares valued at about $7.01 million across its ARKK, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ), ARKW, and ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX).

Citadel has cautioned that AI stocks could face new pressure

Despite the strong momentum in SpaceX shares, a Bloomberg report citing Citadel Securities said investors may be underestimating how committed Federal Reserve officials remain to bringing inflation under control.

According to the report, interest rates staying higher for longer could weigh on high-growth companies and other risk-sensitive assets. The trading firm’s assessment has also added to concerns in cryptocurrency markets, where digital assets have remained under selling pressure over recent weeks.

Bloomberg also reported that Citadel Securities expects the AI-led rally to encounter additional challenges from softer demand, weaker investment returns, and rising political and regulatory scrutiny.

The report did not identify SpaceX as facing those issues directly, but investors are assessing whether a slowdown across AI-related companies could eventually influence sentiment toward the stock.

Separate concerns have also emerged around the company’s financing strategy. As reported by crypto.news earlier, Allianz Chief Investment Officer Ludovic Subran said SpaceX’s enlarged debt offering may indicate that financial markets are showing signs of bubble-like conditions. He argued companies are taking advantage of elevated equity valuations and favorable borrowing conditions to raise additional capital.

The comments followed earlier reports that SpaceX was preparing a larger bond sale, a development that has attracted attention even as investor demand for the company’s shares continues to strengthen ahead of next week’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion.

Institutional demand for perpetual futures remains limited, with the products largely viewed as speculative trading instruments rather than viable replacements for traditional derivatives, according to a Monday report by Wall Street bank JPMorgan.

Based on conversations with clients and market participants, the bank said institutional interest in perpetuals has been muted. While the contracts offer 24/7 trading and eliminate futures roll costs, most activity is driven by traders seeking leveraged directional exposure rather than producers, consumers or other participants hedging underlying market risk.

“Our due diligence within J.P. Morgan suggests that there is no/limited institutional demand that our desks are seeing,” the bank’s analysts said in the Monday report

“The consensus opinion seems to be that perps activity is more akin to speculative use cases by traders versus hedging by producers/consumers or those players with real exposure to the underlying,” the analysts added.

The report argued that perpetuals offer few incremental benefits over legacy derivatives for institutional investors. On-chain perpetuals are unlikely to appeal to U.S. institutions because they lack traditional clearing protections, while off-chain products reduce roll risk but retain other structural drawbacks.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled near $60,000 around Monday’s Wall Street open as bulls increasingly risked a support/resistance flip.

Key points:

• Bitcoin bulls face an uphill struggle to flip $60,000 back to support, even as US stocks see fresh upside.
• Iran peace hopes fuel a more positive risk-asset mood, but analysis says that Bitcoin buyers “lack conviction.”
• Market participants are “defensive” around current price action.

US-Iran meeting announcement sends stocks higher

Data from TradingView showed an ongoing battle to regain control of $60,000, with BTC price strength again failing to keep pace with US stocks.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both started the week in the green amid renewed optimism of rescuing the US-Iran peace deal.

In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump wrote that Iran had “requested a meeting,” which would take place in Doha, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday.

S&P 500 four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting on the latest events, trading company QCP Capital nonetheless cautioned over the potential for oil prices to rebound — a key potential headwind for crypto.

“While both countries appear to have agreed to stand down for now, the situation remains uncertain. That said, oil prices have remained largely stable in the low $70s, suggesting cautious optimism that tensions may ease,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis. 

“However, this relatively muted market reaction also leaves significant upside risk for oil prices should supply recovery prove slower than expected.”

CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On Friday, WTI crude fell below $68 per barrel for the first time since early March, but was back above the $70 mark at the time of writing.

“U.S. markets are also set to be closed on Friday, while the situation between the U.S. and Iran remains fluid, leaving volatility likely to stay elevated, partly driven by thinner liquidity conditions, similar to what we saw over the past weekend,” QCP added.

Bitcoin needs more “conviction” from buyers

Bitcoin market participants thus sat on the sidelines as “choppy” price moves defined low-time-frame market action.

Related: BTC price RSI prints key 2026 signal: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Chopping around in this range at the previous June lows. The ~$60K region keeps capping price as we have some marginally higher low wicks below,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X analysis. 

“The longer price spends moving around in this region, the bigger the following move upon a range break will be. Eyes on $58K & $61K.”

BTC/USDT one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

In its latest Market Pulse bulletin, onchain analytics platform Glassnode said that buyers “have so far lacked the conviction required to establish a sustained recovery, leaving price range-bound near local lows.”

“Beneath the surface, the market remains in a phase of structural adjustment as capital continues to contract and participants adopt a more defensive posture,” it reported. 

“Spot markets are still experiencing persistent net selling despite an increase in trading activity, suggesting that available liquidity is being used primarily to distribute rather than accumulate Bitcoin at current prices.”

Bitcoin price momentum data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

While noting “more balanced” onchain data, Glassnode added that a shift toward supply ownership by more speculative investors increased the potential for price volatility.

“Taken together, Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing around the $60K region, but with spot order flow, derivatives positioning, and institutional demand all remaining defensive, a sustained recovery is likely to require a meaningful return of buyer conviction,” it concluded.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the largest Ethereum treasury company, bought 27,084 ether (ETH) last week, extending its accumulation streak despite another slide in crypto prices.

The purchase, worth roughly $43 million based on ETH’s current price of around $1,580, lifted Bitmine’s holdings to 5.7 million ETH, according to a Monday company update. The stash is worth about $8.9 billion and represents roughly 4.7% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, nearing the firm’s 5% goal.

The company also held 206 bitcoin, $555 million in cash and marketable securities and stakes in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings, bringing total crypto, cash and investment holdings to $9.8 billion.

The latest acquisition was the smallest purchase since early May, down from 52,203 ETH the previous week and well below the 126,971 ETH batch earlier this month, suggesting the company is dialing back its buying pace after months of aggressive accumulation. Bitmine nevertheless remains one of the few large digital asset treasury firms still consistently adding to its crypto holdings while many peers have paused purchases amid the market downturn.

Crypto weakness

Chairman Thomas “Tom” Lee pointed to quarter-end rebalancing behind the latest bout of weakness in crypto markets with investors cutting their losses as we enter the second-half of the year.

Prediction-market operators have increasingly moved to own more of their trading infrastructure, setting the stage for an acquisition wave across crypto exchanges, sportsbooks, brokerages and trading venues, according to Bernstein.

According to a research report published by Bernstein on Monday, the sector is entering a period of operational consolidation as consumer-facing platforms bring together distribution, brokerage, exchange and clearing functions under one roof instead of relying on outside providers.

The analysts wrote that “every consumer platform that matters has merged the front and back end of the prediction-market stack,” arguing that businesses once separated across financial trading, crypto and sports betting are now competing within the same market.

Consumer platforms are taking control of trading infrastructure

Recent product launches and acquisitions illustrate the trend outlined by Bernstein. Robinhood now routes major FIFA World Cup prediction contracts through Rothera, the exchange it jointly owns with Susquehanna, while DraftKings has introduced DKeX and redirected trading volume away from infrastructure supplied by CME and Crypto.com.

Coinbase has also expanded its presence by acquiring The Clearing Company and launching its own event contracts, a move Bernstein cited as another example of platforms assembling every part of the prediction-market business.

Instead of paying third parties for execution, clearing or exchange services, companies that own the full trading stack can keep more of the fees generated by customer activity. Bernstein said acquisitions may therefore become the fastest way for platforms to obtain licenses, reach new users or add missing infrastructure rather than building those capabilities internally.

Outside the crypto sector, traditional financial exchanges have also begun entering the market. Last week, Cboe Global Markets introduced Cboe Predicts, launching binary option contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP). Cboe said the products operate as security options under the existing U.S. regulatory framework for listed options, allowing traders to take yes-or-no positions on where the index finishes.

Large technology companies are also exploring the space. Meta has reportedly assembled a team to develop Arena, a prediction-market application expected to compete with platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi. According to reports, Arena will rely on a points-based system similar to video games instead of real-money wagering.

Regulatory disputes could slow dealmaking

While Bernstein sees economic incentives for consolidation, the firm warned that regulation remains one of the biggest obstacles to larger transactions.

The report said combinations involving crypto exchanges, brokerages, sportsbooks and derivatives venues could improve profitability by reducing dependence on external providers.

At the same time, Bernstein cautioned that such deals may attract antitrust scrutiny while intensifying debate over whether sports event contracts should be treated as financial derivatives or gambling products.

Regulatory disagreements are already emerging across the U.S. Bernstein noted that Minnesota has enacted what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission described as the first outright ban on prediction markets, while Illinois has passed legislation requiring platforms to obtain a state license before offering sports event contracts.

Kalshi has challenged both measures, arguing that exchanges regulated by the CFTC fall under the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction rather than state gambling authorities.

According to Bernstein, the commercial logic behind consolidation remains intact, but many of the largest acquisitions may prove difficult to complete until courts and regulators establish where federal derivatives oversight ends and state gambling regulation begins.