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Momentus (MNTS) Stock Plunges Over 22% Following $25M Direct Offering Announcement

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MNTS Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Momentus (MNTS) shares plummeted 18% during premarket hours Friday following disclosure of a $25 million equity raise
  • The space company disclosed plans to sell 1,851,852 common shares through a registered direct offering at market price
  • Expected gross proceeds total approximately $25 million, prior to deducting placement fees and transaction costs
  • Transaction completion is anticipated on or around June 15, 2026
  • Funds raised will be allocated toward working capital requirements and general corporate uses

Shares of Momentus (MNTS) experienced a significant downturn Friday, sliding 18% before the opening bell after the space technology company disclosed a $25 million registered direct equity offering.


MNTS Stock Card
Momentus Inc., MNTS

The California-based orbital services provider revealed it has executed securities purchase agreements with a mix of new institutional backers and current long-term investors to sell 1,851,852 common shares. The transaction is structured as an at-the-market offering in accordance with Nasdaq marketplace regulations.

The company anticipates generating roughly $25 million in gross proceeds from the transaction, with final proceeds reduced by placement agent compensation and associated transaction expenses.

A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners has been tapped as the exclusive placement agent facilitating the transaction.

The deal is scheduled to finalize on or near June 15, 2026, contingent upon satisfaction of standard closing requirements.

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According to Momentus, the capital raised will support working capital needs and broader corporate initiatives — a relatively vague designation that provides operational flexibility while leaving investors with limited insight into specific allocation strategies.

Understanding the Market Reaction

Dilutive equity raises typically trigger negative responses in small-capitalization stocks. Issuing additional shares expands the total outstanding share count, which can diminish per-share value for current shareholders.

In Momentus’s case, operating within a capital-demanding space infrastructure sector amplifies investor concerns about dilution. By the time regular trading commenced, shares had declined more than 22%.

The equity sale operates under an active shelf registration statement filed on Form S-3, which received SEC effectiveness on June 4, 2026 — merely days prior to this announcement.

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Offering Details

The shares are being distributed via a prospectus supplement scheduled for SEC filing. Interested parties can obtain documentation through A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners at their New York office located at 590 Madison Avenue, 28th Floor, New York, NY 10022.

Momentus provides satellite solutions, orbital transportation services, and space infrastructure capabilities. The company caters to both government agencies and commercial entities across diverse mission profiles including telecommunications, missile defense tracking, and scientific research payloads.

Its service portfolio encompasses hosted payload solutions, orbital servicing and refueling capabilities, in-space manufacturing support, and precision satellite deployment to designated orbits.

The firm competes in a capital-intensive segment of the aerospace industry where operational funding requirements remain substantial and revenue generation often follows extended timelines.

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While the offering introduces near-term shareholder dilution, it secures necessary funding to maintain ongoing operations.

As full market trading commenced Friday, MNTS remained down more than 22%, indicating persistent selling momentum triggered by the offering disclosure.

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Bitcoin's Hidden Yield: Why Options Are Taking Over Crypto | David Lawant, Anchorage Digital

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Bitcoin's Hidden Yield: Why Options Are Taking Over Crypto | David Lawant, Anchorage Digital


🎧 Listen to Interview 💻 Watch Video… Read the full story at The Defiant

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CFTC Staff Give DCMs a Path to Convert Perpetual-Style Digital Commodity Futures Into True Perpetuals

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CFTC Staff Give DCMs a Path to Convert Perpetual-Style Digital Commodity Futures Into True Perpetuals


CFTC staff issued a no-action letter Friday enabling designated contract markets to convert existing perpetual-style digital commodity futures into true perpetual futures, the latest piece of regulatory plumbing in the agency's construction of a domestic crypto derivatives market. The letter,… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Grayscale updates NEAR ETF filing as AI token gains attention

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Grayscale updates NEAR ETF filing as AI token gains attention

Grayscale Investments has filed an amended registration statement for its proposed spot NEAR ETF.

Summary

  • Grayscale amended its spot NEAR ETF filing and added SEC Registration No. 333-292834.
  • BitGo replaced Coinbase Custody as primary custodian, while Coinbase remains an additional custodian.
  • The filing updated NEAR data, including 1.3 billion circulating tokens and a $1.5 billion market cap.

The update introduces custody changes and revised disclosures tied to the NEAR Protocol ecosystem. The filing arrives as investor interest in artificial intelligence-linked crypto assets increases following SpaceX’s public market debut.

Grayscale revises NEAR ETF registration

According to the amended S-1 filing submitted on June 12, Grayscale updated its earlier registration statement. The revision follows the trust’s original filing submitted in January. The latest version includes SEC Registration No. 333-292834, which did not appear in the previous filing. The amendment also contains compliance-related updates and additional disclosures. Grayscale continues seeking approval for a spot ETF tied to NEAR.

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The filing introduces changes to the fund’s custody structure. Earlier documents listed Coinbase Custody Trust Company as the sole custodian. The amended filing names BitGo Bank & Trust N.A. as the primary custodian. Coinbase Custody will continue serving as an additional custodian. The revised structure expands the ETF’s custody arrangements while preserving Coinbase’s role.

The asset manager also revised language related to staking activities. The filing states that the trust may only provide staking-related exposure if U.S. law permits it. Grayscale confirmed that the trust, sponsor, and custodians do not currently stake NEAR tokens. The amendment provides clearer language regarding staking restrictions. Those disclosures form part of the updated registration package.

Filing updates NEAR ecosystem data

The amended filing also updates information about the NEAR Protocol network. According to the document, circulating supply reached 1.3 billion NEAR tokens as of March 31, 2026. The filing states that NEAR’s market capitalization stood at approximately $1.5 billion. It also reported a decline in the token’s market ranking. NEAR moved from 39th place to 43rd place during the period covered.

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Grayscale also expanded legal and administrative disclosures within the filing. The amendment adds Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP attorney Dylan H. Lojac as legal counsel. The document includes formatting changes tied to regulatory compliance requirements. It also addresses a new checkbox related to emerging growth company elections. Those revisions accompany the broader registration update.

SpaceX IPO boosts attention on AI-linked crypto assets

The filing emerged as artificial intelligence-related crypto narratives regained market attention. Market participants have linked part of that renewed interest to SpaceX’s recent public listing. The aerospace company entered public markets with a valuation of about $1.77 trillion. The listing increased attention toward advanced technology themes across financial markets. AI-focused digital assets have received part of that attention.

NEAR has continued promoting infrastructure focused on decentralized artificial intelligence applications. The network has also developed tools for autonomous agent systems and related services. Those initiatives have placed the project among blockchain networks targeting AI use cases. Grayscale’s amended filing arrived as those themes gained renewed visibility. The updated registration statement now awaits further regulatory review.

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SpaceX (SPCX) IPO Debuts as Oil Tumbles on US-Iran Peace Talks Progress

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E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Key Highlights

  • SpaceX (SPCX) launched its public trading debut Friday in a record-shattering IPO that generated $75 billion at a share price of $135
  • Elon Musk’s aerospace venture achieved a $1.77 trillion market valuation, potentially elevating him to trillionaire status
  • Wall Street indices showed divergent movements at opening: Dow climbed 0.2%, S&P 500 hovered near unchanged, Nasdaq slipped 0.3%
  • Emerging news of a provisional US-Iran diplomatic agreement sent crude oil tumbling, with Brent dropping up to 5%
  • University of Michigan consumer confidence plummeted to a historic nadir of 44.8 in May, with updated figures anticipated Friday

Wall Street experienced range-bound trading Friday morning as market participants monitored a pair of significant developments: SpaceX’s highly anticipated public market entrance and emerging details of a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced approximately 138 points, representing a 0.2% gain, during early market activity. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% while the Nasdaq Composite settled flat following an initial 0.3% decline at the opening bell. Thursday’s session had delivered robust gains following President Trump’s announcement that US-Iran peace negotiations were approaching conclusion.

E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Jun 26 (ES=F)

Trading under the symbol SPCX, SpaceX established its initial share price at $135 prior to Friday’s market launch. The aerospace manufacturer secured approximately $75 billion in capital, establishing a new benchmark as the largest initial public offering in financial history. The company’s projected market capitalization reaches $1.77 trillion.

With this valuation, Chief Executive Elon Musk stands positioned to achieve trillionaire status—a first in human history.

SpaceX has outlined ambitious plans to deploy artificial intelligence computing facilities in orbital space. Market analysts have set elevated expectations for the stock’s performance, noting that any underwhelming debut-day performance will likely trigger substantial questioning.

Industry observers view this offering as a crucial barometer for overall market health, particularly as equities have weathered significant volatility centered around artificial intelligence investments throughout recent sessions.

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Crude Markets Retreat on Diplomatic Optimism

Oil prices experienced substantial declines Friday as market participants incorporated the likelihood of a Washington-Tehran accord. Brent crude contracts plummeted as much as 5% during early transactions, touching their weakest levels since March, before staging a partial recovery. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 2.8% to approximately $85.26 per barrel.

Emerging intelligence indicates the two nations are advancing toward an understanding that would reestablish passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor for global petroleum shipments. G7 leadership is scheduled to convene the following week, where the accord may receive formal endorsement.

Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau noted that a verified US-Iran agreement would “eliminate a significant macroeconomic tail risk and facilitate additional market broadening and sector rotation.”

Consumer Confidence and Digital Assets Under Watch

Market observers awaited Friday’s release of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence assessment. The May headline figure collapsed to an unprecedented low of 44.8, underscoring persistent economic anxieties among American households.

Bitcoin continued trading within established boundaries following modest gains earlier in the week.

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Gold advanced more than 2.5% amid optimism surrounding the potential US-Iran diplomatic resolution, though the precious metal tracked toward a weekly decline.

Additional aerospace-focused equities captured investor attention. Rocket Lab alongside four companion firms were slated for Nasdaq 100 inclusion, providing additional momentum to the sector coinciding with SpaceX’s market entrance.

The convergence of the SpaceX public offering, retreating energy prices, and geopolitical developments provided markets with numerous significant catalysts to process entering the weekend period.

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Gary Gensler Returns With a New Front in America’s Regulatory Wars

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Gary Gensler Returns With a New Front in America’s Regulatory Wars

Former SEC and CFTC chair Gary Gensler has entered the legal war over sports prediction markets, backing Ohio against Kalshi in the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.

He is an unusual amicus. Gensler helped negotiate the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, the very statute Kalshi says puts its sports contracts under exclusive federal control.

Why Gary Gensler Says Dodd-Frank Was Never a Betting Law

Gensler filed his amicus brief on June 11 in KalshiEX v. Schuler. Tribal gaming interests filed in support of Ohio as well, while the American Gaming Association submitted its own brief and Better Markets urged the court to affirm.

Kalshi is appealing after Chief Judge Sarah Morrison ruled in March that its sports contracts are likely not swaps.

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However, the platform won a similar challenge in the Third Circuit, and a Tennessee judge sided with Kalshi in February.

Gensler chaired the CFTC from 2009 to 2014 and helped shape Dodd-Frank’s derivatives rules after the 2008 crash.

He insists nobody who drafted the law contemplated sports betting.

“I testified in Congress 54 times, and literally Republicans and Democrats alike, nobody said, oh, you know what? Gensler, I think we should give your small agency under President Obama authority to regulate sports betting,” Gensler made the remarks in a CNBC interview.

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His brief argues nobody slipped nationwide betting past the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who chaired the Nevada Gaming Commission before entering the Senate.

Preempting a $165 billion per year industry, it adds, is not something Congress hides inside a definition.

The brief also notes the CFTC voted unanimously in 2011 to bar contracts involving gaming, war, and assassination.

The agency’s new proposal would rewrite that rule.

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States and Tribes Challenge Federal Control of Prediction Markets

Thirty Native American tribes and 11 tribal associations also backed Ohio, gaming attorney Daniel Wallach indicated.

He noted that Kalshi grounds its jurisdiction claim in statutes dating to 1974, potentially triggering the major questions doctrine.

Meanwhile, Minnesota banned prediction markets outright, making operation a felony from August 1.

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The CFTC and DOJ have sued six states to defend exclusive federal jurisdiction, extending a federal preemption campaign President Donald Trump has publicly backed.

Gensler also opposed the CFTC’s 267-page June 10 proposal allowing most sports outcome contracts while banning injury and officiating wagers.

He argued addiction and consumer protection belong with the states, deepening the federal and state divide.

The stance is striking for a regulator who returned to MIT after leading one of the SEC’s most aggressive crypto enforcement campaigns.

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He now sides with states against a CFTC-blessed market.

If the Sixth Circuit affirms, the clash with the Third Circuit could invite Supreme Court review.

The ruling may settle whether prediction markets answer to Washington or the states.

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SPCX Shares Push Elon Musk to First Trillionaire Status In $150 Open

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SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Opens at $150

SpaceX shares have just open at $150, just 11% above the targeted $135 dollar but below the initially indicated $171 mark.

SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Opens at $150
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Opens at $150. Source: TradingView

The stock immediately jumped 12% to establish an intra-day high of $168.40 as of this writing.

When trading opened at $150 and shares rallied as high as the $168 range (up nearly 20%+ intraday from $135), SpaceX’s market cap exceeded $2 trillion, lifting Musk’s SpaceX portion above $1 trillion and his total net worth estimates to $1.3 trillion or more.

However, these figures represent paper wealth subject to lock-up restrictions, market volatility, and adjustments for illiquidity.

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The following section was published immediately after the public listing

SpaceX debuts on Nasdaq with strong indication at $171, 27% above $135 IPO price, pushing valuation toward $2.24 trillion.

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The offering is said to have drawn over $250 billion institutional orders, bringing the total demand to about $350 billion in one of the most anticipated and largest market debuts ever.

SPCX Live on Nasdaq: SpaceX Finally Opens Shares for Public Trading

Shares are indicated to open at $171, representing an approximate 27% pop from the IPO price.

This would value the company at roughly $2.24 trillion on debut and make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire on paper.

The offering raised approximately $75 billion and gives the rocket and satellite giant a massive $1.77 trillion market capitalization from day one.

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Elon Musk said when he launched SpaceX, he gave the company “less than a 10% chance” of succeeding.

Early indications pointed to a strong opening pop of 25-30% above the IPO price, which would push the stock toward $168–$175. The 27% score at $171 is not a mean feat.

This marks the public debut of the space economy’s dominant player, Starlink’s subscriber and revenue ramp, reusable rocket leadership, defense contracts, and AI/orbital upside now available to public investors.

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Notably, the $171 opening falls significantly lower than veteran New York Stock Exchange floor trader Peter Tuchman predicted.

Prediction market bettors on Kalshi now see Elon Musk hitting a net worth of almost $1.5 trillion this year.

Elon Musk Trillionaire Status Bets. Source: Kalshi
Elon Musk Trillionaire Status Bets. Source: Kalshi

With tiny float, overwhelming demand from institutions and retail alike, and looming passive ETF/index buying, the debut shaped up as one of the most volatile and watched in market history.

Reportedly, about 70% of shares sold to institutions allocated to long-only investors and sovereign wealth funds.

Before trading starts, Nasdaq runs a price-discovery auction to match orders. No trades occur until supply and demand balance.

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Major IPOs like Google and Meta often delayed over 2 hours.

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Exodus Movement Partners with Ondo Finance to Enable Trading of 200+ Tokenized Stocks on Solana

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • Exodus Movement introduces tokenized asset trading through Ondo Finance collaboration

  • Over 200 tokenized securities now accessible within Exodus wallet interface

  • Ondo Finance provides underlying infrastructure for tokenized stock platform

  • Exodus transitions from pure self-custody solution to comprehensive financial ecosystem

  • Tokenized securities sector experiences significant growth as new players join

Exodus Movement has unveiled Exodus Markets through a strategic collaboration with Ondo Finance, providing qualified customers with the ability to trade tokenized securities on Solana. This new offering enables access to over 200 tokenized equities, exchange-traded funds, and real-world assets directly within the Exodus application. This strategic expansion positions Exodus beyond traditional wallet functionality and deepens its involvement in the tokenized financial sector.

Tokenized Securities Trading Integrated Into Exodus Wallet

Through Exodus Markets, customers can purchase and sell tokenized equity products without leaving their non-custodial wallet interface. The system leverages Solana’s blockchain infrastructure for transaction settlement and interfaces with Ondo Finance‘s tokenized asset ecosystem. Consequently, Exodus now consolidates trading capabilities, payment processing, transfer functionality, rewards programs, and financial management within a unified application.

The initial release encompasses over 200 tokenized instruments, spanning equities, ETFs, and real-world asset categories. The platform also features tokenized EXOD shares for customers in approved jurisdictions, contingent upon local regulatory frameworks. Access to these products remains subject to jurisdictional compliance requirements and individual user qualification criteria.

According to Exodus, integrating tokenized stock capabilities provides customers with enhanced market participation without exiting their familiar wallet interface. The organization seeks to simplify access to conventional financial instruments through blockchain-based infrastructure. This product offering reinforces the company’s evolution from a wallet service provider toward a comprehensive financial services platform.

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Ondo Finance Collaboration Enables Tokenized Asset Access on Solana

Ondo Finance supplies the foundational tokenized asset architecture powering the Exodus Markets platform. This collaboration delivers tokenized equity products to Exodus customers through infrastructure specifically designed for real-world asset tokenization. Furthermore, this integration embeds Ondo’s product suite within an established self-custodial wallet serving a substantial user base.

Established in 2015, Exodus developed its reputation centered on self-custody principles and straightforward cryptocurrency access. The organization subsequently pursued a public listing on NYSE American under the ticker symbol EXOD. Notably, Exodus distinguished itself as among the earliest publicly traded entities to tokenize its own equity securities in 2021.

This pioneering background establishes Exodus’s authentic connection to the tokenized securities ecosystem it now facilitates for users. Having already implemented tokenization for its corporate equity distribution, the company applies this experience to its latest blockchain-based securities product offering.

Tokenized Securities Sector Experiences Accelerated Growth

This product debut arrives amid expanding interest in tokenized securities across both cryptocurrency and conventional finance sectors. Tokenized equities enable participants to obtain economic exposure to publicly traded shares through blockchain-native instruments. Nevertheless, these tokenized products do not confer direct ownership of the underlying securities themselves.

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Additionally, tokenized instruments do not grant traditional shareholder privileges, such as voting rights in corporate governance. Exodus emphasized that customers should recognize fundamental differences between tokenized equity products and conventional stock ownership. This clarification becomes increasingly relevant as additional platforms incorporate tokenized securities and ETF products into their offerings.

The overall tokenized equity sector has witnessed substantial expansion throughout the current year. According to data from The Block, the market achieved $5.5 billion in total capitalization by June 8. This valuation represented approximately 147% growth from the $2.23 billion recorded at the beginning of the year.

 

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Coinbase eyes financial super app in next phase of expansion

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MassPay joins Coinbase to challenge costly cross-border wires

Coinbase has unveiled the next stage of its expansion strategy, with plans to combine trading, lending, payments, derivatives, and AI-powered services into a single financial platform.

Summary

  • Coinbase will unveil the next phase of its “Everything Exchange” strategy on June 16.
  • New products span AI trading agents, prediction markets, stocks, lending, and DeFi services.
  • Bernstein sees Coinbase benefiting from up to $10 billion in World Cup-related prediction market activity.

According to a company blog post published by Coinbase executive Max Branzburg, the crypto exchange is building what it describes as a unified account where users can access multiple financial products from one platform.

The company said the service is designed to support crypto assets, stocks, commodities, derivatives, payments, and lending while operating around the clock.

Investor interest followed the announcement. Coinbase shares rose as much as 2.58% to $164.32 during Friday’s trading session before reversing course and turning lower later in the day as attention shifted to the highly anticipated SpaceX public market debut.

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Coinbase expands beyond crypto trading

In its statement, Coinbase argued that much of the traditional financial system still relies on outdated infrastructure that slows transactions and limits asset ownership. The company pointed to delayed settlement times and restricted market hours as examples of inefficiencies that blockchain-based systems can address.

Coinbase said digital asset infrastructure allows markets to operate continuously while enabling faster settlement and global access. The company added that users can already access millions of crypto assets, nearly 10,000 stocks and exchange-traded funds, commodity-backed perpetual futures, and prediction markets through its platform.

Recent product launches indicate that the exchange is steadily adding new financial services. Earlier this month, Coinbase introduced a High Yield USDC vault within its application, allowing users to lend stablecoins through decentralized finance infrastructure powered by Morpho.

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The allocations are managed by Steakhouse Financial, and the product offers exposure to a range of collateral assets without requiring users to move funds off the exchange.

At the same time, Coinbase has been increasing its presence in event-based trading. According to a research report published by Bernstein and previously reported by crypto.news, the exchange’s prediction market business exceeded $100 million in annualized revenue in March, only months after launch.

AI services become a central part of the platform

Alongside trading and lending products, Coinbase is continuing to invest in artificial intelligence tools. The company highlighted its Coinbase Advisor feature, which provides portfolio analysis, trading insights, and market information to users.

Further AI integration is already underway. As reported by crypto.news, Coinbase recently launched Coinbase for Agents, a system that connects large language models such as ChatGPT and Claude directly to Coinbase accounts. The rollout allows authorized AI agents to execute cryptocurrency trades, rebalance portfolios, monitor markets, manage positions, and carry out payment-related tasks on behalf of users.

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Coinbase said support for stocks and prediction markets will be added to the agent framework at a later stage.

Those developments arrive as analysts see additional opportunities for Coinbase’s growing financial ecosystem. Bernstein estimated that the 2026 FIFA World Cup could generate between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional prediction market activity, with the exchange positioned to benefit from rising participation tied to the tournament’s 104-match schedule.

Coinbase said it will provide more details on June 16 when it presents what the company described as the next phase of its “Everything Exchange” initiative.

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Anthropic’s Claude Fable Picks Its 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion

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Claude Fable 5’s Predicted Bracket With Confidence Percentages

Anthropic’s newest AI model, Claude Fable 5, predicts Spain will beat France in the 2026 World Cup final on July 19. The model gives its own pick just an 18% chance of success.

BeInCrypto ran several simulations with the model to assess its predictive capabilities, as the tournament kicked off this week with 48 teams for the first time. Fable 5 built its prediction from tournament structure, squad depth, and almost a century of hosting history.

Why the AI Starts With the Format, Not the Teams

The model’s first argument concerns structure rather than talent. The expanded tournament features 104 matches over 39 days across the US, Canada, and Mexico. A champion must now win 8 matches instead of 7.

According to Fable 5, that extra knockout round changes the math. More matches mean more fatigue, more rotation, and more exposure to a single bad night. The model, therefore, weights squad depth and system reliability above peak individual talent.

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Playing conditions form the second pillar. Venues such as Dallas, Houston, Miami, and Monterrey bring intense summer heat. Mexico City adds altitude, and travel distances exceed any previous edition.

“Spain’s positional game is an energy-conservation system. Teams that hold the ball rest on it, while teams that chase it suffer most in North American heat,” Claude Fable 5, said.

Claude Fable 5’s Predicted Bracket With Confidence Percentages
Claude Fable 5’s Predicted Bracket With Confidence Percentages Source: BeInCrypto

The Case for Spain Over France

The model cites 3 reasons for backing Spain. First, La Roja proved their system under maximum pressure at Euro 2024. They beat Croatia, Italy, Germany, France, and England in a single tournament and won every match.

Second, the age curve favors them. Lamine Yamal turns 19 during the tournament, while Pedri and Nico Williams are 23. Rivals must instead manage decline, with Lionel Messi at 38, Cristiano Ronaldo at 41, and Harry Kane at 32.

Third, Spain carries no single point of failure. France without Kylian Mbappé becomes a different team. Spain’s output stays systemic, so losing any one attacker changes little.

France still reaches the final in the AI’s bracket. Two consecutive finals give Les Bleus the strongest recent track record in international football. 

However, the model argues Didier Deschamps wins through risk minimization, producing tight knockout games decided by fine margins. Over 8 matches, Fable 5 expects that approach to fall one moment short against a side that dominates possession.

Argentina, England, and the Dark Horses

The model places Argentina and England in the semifinals. It rules out a title defense because no champion has repeated since Brazil in 1962. Winning squads age together, opponents study 4 years of film, and Messi’s minutes become an unsolved problem across a 39-day schedule.

England carries elite talent, but a structural question. Thomas Tuchel faces his first international tournament, and debut managers historically underperform their squad’s paper quality. The AI sees England losing a Euro 2024 semifinal to Spain in a rerun.

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Brazil ranks as the most dangerous outsider thanks to Carlo Ancelotti’s knockout pedigree. Portugal follows if Ronaldo accepts a reduced role, while Morocco’s 2022 semifinal run gets labeled repeatable rather than a fluke.

Norway’s bench depth concerns the model despite Erling Haaland’s scoring power.

For the Golden Boot, Fable 5 picks Mbappé over Haaland. Norway’s likely ceiling caps Haaland near 5 matches, while Mbappé projects for 8 plus penalty duty.

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The Model Argues Against Its Own Pick

Fable 5 then attacks its own forecast. Spain exited in the round of 16 in both 2018 and 2022 and fell at the group stage in 2014. Favorites win World Cups far less often than fans assume.

History adds a harder objection. Across 21 previous editions, Germany in 2014 remains the only European champion crowned in the Americas.

Every other tournament hosted there ended in a South American side winning. The model consciously overrides that pattern, arguing modern travel and conditioning have erased the old geographic penalty.

Its full probability table reads Spain at 18%, France at 14%, Argentina at 11%, England at 10%, Brazil at 8%, and Portugal at 7%.

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“My own pick is 82% likely to be wrong. That is what a 48-team knockout tournament looks like. Any AI claiming certainty about a World Cup winner is performing, not predicting,” the AI added.

Goldman Sachs and Prediction Markets Back the Same Final

Wall Street reached a similar conclusion on Friday. Goldman Sachs published World Cup probabilities in a report led by Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist and head of Global Investment Research.

Goldman’s model puts Spain first at 26%, ahead of France at 19% and Argentina at 14%. The bank weighs historical performance, scoring talent, momentum, geography, and other variables.

Its analysts also flagged a “winner’s slump,” cautioning that Argentina may underperform after lifting the 2022 trophy.

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Crypto-native prediction markets price the race much more tightly. On Polymarket, Spain leads at 17%, followed by France at 16%, Portugal at 11%, England at 10%, and Argentina and Brazil at 9% each. 

Kalshi traders show a narrower gap. Spain trades at 17.7% on the regulated exchange, with France at 17.1% and rising. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8%, ahead of Argentina at 8.9% and Brazil at 8.5%.

Prediction Market Odds For FIFA World Cup Winner.
Prediction Market Odds For FIFA World Cup Winner. Source: Kalshi and Polymarket

The forecasts agree on the final but split on conviction. Goldman’s model shows the most confidence in Spain at 26%, while traders on both venues price a coin flip with France. Fable 5’s 18% lands almost exactly on the market price. 

The clearest divergence is Portugal, which traders rate at 11% compared to the AI’s 7%. The 7 remaining knockout rounds will reveal whether bank models, AI reasoning, or crowd-priced markets read this World Cup best.

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Disclaimer: The predictions in this article were generated by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 AI model and reflect probabilistic estimates, not certainties. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting or financial advice.

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SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Surges 30% Pre-Market Ahead of Historic IPO Debut

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • SpaceX set its IPO offering at $135 per share, securing capital at a $1.77 trillion market cap — establishing the largest public offering in global history.
  • Shares are tracking to debut at $175 on Friday, approximately 30% higher than the offering price.
  • Oppenheimer launched coverage with an “outperform” designation and $190 price objective; New Street Research established a $165 target.
  • The company recorded a $4.94 billion net deficit in 2025 following its xAI combination, contrasting with a $791 million gain in 2024.
  • Morningstar assigns a fair value of merely $63 per share, labeling it excessively priced, while prominent short seller Jim Chanos has challenged the $1.77 trillion assessment.

SpaceX (SPCX) is poised to create a watershed moment on Friday, with indications showing shares opening at $175 — representing approximately 30% appreciation over the $135 offering price. This trajectory would elevate the aerospace manufacturer’s market capitalization to nearly $2.29 trillion before executing its initial public trade.

The public offering secured capital at a $1.77 trillion assessment after the company distributed 555.56 million shares priced at $135 apiece on Thursday. This positioning already places it beyond JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, Meta Platforms, and even Elon Musk’s electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla in market value.

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This represents the most substantial initial public offering on record. Saudi Aramco’s 2019 market debut generated $25.6 billion at a $1.71 trillion assessment. SpaceX has now eclipsed that benchmark.

Interest from individual investors exceeded $100 billion, based on Bloomberg reporting. BlackRock independently submitted a $5 billion institutional commitment, according to the Wall Street Journal. SpaceX additionally reserved 30% of shares for individual investors — a substantially greater portion than typical mega-cap offerings.

Starlink, the company’s orbital internet platform, contributed approximately 60% of SpaceX’s $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue. The service currently supports around 10.3 million subscribers through 9,600 satellites, delivering connectivity across 164 nations and territories.

Oppenheimer emerged as the first leading investment firm to publish analysis, assigning an “outperform” rating alongside a $190 valuation target. Analyst Timothy Horan characterized SpaceX as “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” New Street Research projected a 12-month objective of $165.

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The Bear Case

Not all market observers share the bullish sentiment. Morningstar calculates SPCX’s intrinsic value at $63 per share — representing a 53% markdown from the offering price. Its highest-probability scenario, weighted at just 7% likelihood, reaches only $154. Valuation authority Aswath Damodaran estimates the enterprise value at $1.22 trillion.

Renowned short seller Jim Chanos stated directly: “The company is not worth, in my opinion, $1.75 trillion based on any reasonable assumptions over the next five years.” He emphasized SpaceX commands approximately 90x sales, versus Tesla’s 14x ratio.

The financial statements support certain concerns. SpaceX generated a $4.94 billion net deficit in 2025 after finalizing its xAI combination, reversing a $791 million surplus in 2024. Revenue expanded 33% annually, yet profitability deteriorated significantly.

Governance and Index Inclusion

Elon Musk maintains an estimated 80–85% of voting authority. This configuration leaves public shareholders with minimal influence over corporate decisions — a framework attracting examination alongside the valuation controversy.

Regarding index membership, Nasdaq recently modified listing standards that might facilitate SPCX’s entrance into the Nasdaq 100. Nevertheless, S&P Global rejected making accommodations for expedited S&P 500 admission. This indicates automatic purchasing from passive index portfolios may materialize slower than certain market participants anticipate.

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Space-sector equities including AST SpaceMobile, Viasat, and Rocket Lab all declined in preliminary trading on Friday preceding SpaceX’s market entrance.

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