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Most Bitcoin ETF Investors Have Stayed Put Despite Outflows

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Most Bitcoin ETF Investors Have Stayed Put Despite Outflows

Latest developments: Crypto markets are under pressure as Bitcoin sits around $60,000 and ETF outflows continue.

  • Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks with more than $1 billion in net outflows.
  • James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence joined Public Keys and said roughly $9 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs since their recent peak.
  • Despite the pullback, Seyffart noted Bitcoin ETFs still hold roughly $50 billion-plus in cumulative net inflows since launch.
  • Crypto prices were also weighed down by concerns surrounding a recently disclosed Zcash privacy bug and broader risk-off sentiment.

What this means: Seyffart argues investors may be overreacting to ETF redemptions.

  • He compared the current period to previous ETF cycles, where strong inflows were followed by periods of consolidation and withdrawals.
  • ETF products are designed to provide liquid exposure, making periods of buying and selling a normal part of market behavior.
  • Most investors have remained invested despite significant volatility in underlying crypto assets.
  • “A few steps forward and a few steps back” is a healthy pattern for an emerging asset class, Seyffart said.

The contrast: Not all crypto ETFs are seeing the same investor behavior.

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Dogecoin (DOGE) Surges 6% as Elon Musk Becomes a Trillionaire

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Dogecoin (DOGE) Surges 6% as Elon Musk Becomes a Trillionaire

Dogecoin (DOGE) surged nearly 6% on Friday, climbing toward $0.0905 after investors reacted to SpaceX’s historic IPO on Nasdaq. The meme coin outperformed much of the cryptocurrency market as enthusiasm surrounding the record-breaking public offering reignited interest in assets closely associated with Elon Musk.

The rally highlights the growing connection between market sentiment, Musk’s ventures, and speculative activity across the cryptocurrency sector.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Surges After SpaceX’s Historic IPO on Nasdaq. Source: CoinGecko

What is Driving Dogecoin’s Latest Rally?

Dogecoin is a meme coin that often reacts strongly to major events involving Elon Musk. Its price movements are frequently influenced by sentiment, social media activity, and developments connected to Musk’s companies.

The latest catalyst emerged after SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Investors rushed into the stock market’s largest initial public offering, pushing demand to unprecedented levels. SpaceX priced its shares at $171, raising approximately $75 billion and valuing the company at close to $1.8 trillion.

Strong demand reportedly generated more than $350 billion, creating delays during the opening auction process. As excitement spread across financial markets, Dogecoin quickly became one of the biggest gainers among major cryptocurrencies.

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The reaction reflects a long-standing narrative connecting Dogecoin to Musk’s broader ecosystem. Previous rallies followed Tesla’s acceptance of DOGE for merchandise purchases and discussions about potential payment integrations within X.

Read More: How to Buy the SpaceX IPO Stock? Crypto Users Have an Inside Lane

Why SpaceX Matters for DOGE Investors

Many traders view SpaceX’s public debut as more than a stock market event. The company represents another high-profile business associated with Musk, whose influence on crypto sentiment remains significant.

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Speculation intensified after investors revisited past references to the DOGE-1 mission and potential future uses for Dogecoin within Musk-led projects. Although no new integration has been announced, the renewed attention encouraged fresh buying activity.

Dogecoin traded at $0.0900 at the time of writing, up more than 6% over the past 24 hours and nearly 9% during the last seven days, according to BeInCrypto Markets data.

Despite the recent rally, DOGE is still 87.8% below its all-time high of $0.7316, set in May 2021.

“$DOGE: Crypto is often a game of relationships and relative comps. Elon = Doge pump, something I didn’t think about (but in hindsight makes a lot of sense). Good move today but probably a better scalp opportunity vs. swing play,” crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa said.

Despite the optimism, analysts remain cautious. Dogecoin has historically experienced rapid gains followed by equally sharp pullbacks. Broader cryptocurrency conditions, Bitcoin’s price action, and profit-taking from recent gains could influence its next move.

Investors are closely monitoring whether Dogecoin can maintain support above $0.09 and potentially challenge resistance levels between $0.10 and $0.12. Holding those levels could strengthen bullish momentum, while a failure may trigger renewed volatility.

The post Dogecoin (DOGE) Surges 6% as Elon Musk Becomes a Trillionaire appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin falls to 15th in market cap rankings as BTC trades 49% below ATH

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Bitcoin falls to 15th in market cap rankings as BTC trades 49% below ATH - 3

Bitcoin has fallen to 15th place among global assets by market capitalization.

  • Bitcoin ranked 15th among global assets, below SpaceX, Tesla, Meta, Samsung, and Saudi Aramco.
  • BTC traded near $63,849, giving the asset a market value of about $1.275 trillion.
  • Bitcoin remained 49.45% below its $126,198.07 all-time high recorded on Oct. 6, 2025.

CompaniesMarketCap data placed BTC below several technology companies, Saudi Aramco, and newly listed SpaceX. The ranking came as Bitcoin traded near $63,800 with a market value of about $1.275 trillion.

Bitcoin falls behind as technology stocks dominate rankings

According to CompaniesMarketCap, gold remained the largest global asset, valued at over $29 trillion. NVIDIA ranked second with about $4.96 trillion, while Alphabet, Apple, and silver also ranked above Bitcoin. Samsung, Meta, Tesla, Saudi Aramco, and SpaceX also stood ahead of BTC in the latest list. The data shows a wide gap between Bitcoin and the largest listed assets. 

Bitcoin falls to 15th in market cap rankings as BTC trades 49% below ATH - 3

Source: CompaniesMarketCap

NVIDIA’s market value stood nearly four times above Bitcoin’s valuation. SpaceX also entered the Bitcoin market after its public listing, valued the company at about $1.277 trillion. Technology companies continued to hold several top positions in the market-cap list. NVIDIA, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Samsung, and Tesla all ranked above Bitcoin. 

Their valuations showed stronger market demand for AI, chips, software, and large technology platforms. Bitcoin’s latest position followed weaker relative performance against top equities and new public listings. Traders now track whether BTC can regain ground after losing rank. CompaniesMarketCap data placed Bitcoin at 15th, as SpaceX and major technology names held higher valuations.

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Bitcoin’s price stays near $64K as the price remains far below the record high

A brief dive into the history reveals that the Bitcoin price trades 49.45% below its all-time high. CoinMarketCap data shows Bitcoin reached a record price of $126,198.07 on Oct. 6, 2025. Despite remaining well below that peak, the cryptocurrency has maintained its position above the $63,000 level during the latest trading session. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded at $63,849.01, representing a 0.62% gain over the past 24 hours. 

Bitcoin falls to 15th in market cap rankings as BTC trades 49% below ATH - 4

Source: CoinMarketCap (Bitcoin Price)

During the early stages of the period, the Bitcoin price fluctuated around the $63,300 region. The price then recorded multiple advances and pullbacks while remaining close to its intraday average. Those movements produced a series of alternating green and red segments across the chart. Later, Bitcoin moved lower and briefly fell below the $63,000 mark. The decline pushed the price to the session’s lows before a recovery followed. After reaching that low point, the cryptocurrency regained lost ground and returned above $63,250.

The strongest move appeared during the latter part of the session. Bitcoin climbed sharply and briefly exceeded $64,250 before retreating from that intraday peak. The price then settled into a narrower range between roughly $63,700 and $64,000. As trading progressed, volatility eased compared with the earlier rally. Bitcoin continued posting modest fluctuations while holding near the upper end of the daily range. By the end of the observed period, the asset traded at $63,849.01, retaining most of its late-session advance and remaining comfortably above the day’s lowest levels.

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SpaceX (SPCX) Goes Public: Elon Musk Hits Trillion-Dollar Net Worth Milestone

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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX)

Key Takeaways

  • Trading under ticker SPCX, SpaceX shares jumped approximately 30% above the $135 IPO price on debut day
  • With $75 billion raised, the offering shattered Saudi Aramco’s previous IPO record from 2019
  • The public listing propelled Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion, a historic first
  • Optimistic analysts view the company as an integrated AI and aerospace powerhouse; skeptics highlight the $4.94 billion 2025 loss
  • Corporate structure gives Musk 80–85% voting control, raising concerns among institutional investors

Space Exploration Technologies Corporation made its Nasdaq debut Friday trading under SPCX, with shares jumping roughly 30% from the initial public offering price of $135. Early indications placed the opening price near $175, catapulting the company’s market capitalization to roughly $2.29 trillion.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX)
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock (SPCX)

The public offering generated $75 billion in capital, establishing a new benchmark as the biggest IPO ever executed. This figure dwarfs the previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, which raised $26 billion five years ago.

From his location at Starbase in South Texas, Elon Musk participated in a ceremonial bell-ringing to commemorate the trading launch. According to Forbes calculations, the listing pushed Musk’s personal wealth beyond the $1 trillion threshold, establishing him as humanity’s first trillionaire.

SpaceX set the share price at $135 and issued 555.56 million shares to the public. Reports suggest retail investor demand exceeded $100 billion, while BlackRock submitted a single institutional purchase order worth $5 billion.

Breaking from convention, the aerospace company reserved 30% of available shares for individual retail investors, a rare allocation in offerings of this magnitude. Management also bypassed the standard roadshow presentations investment banks normally conduct to assess market appetite.

Core Business Operations

Established in 2002, the company’s stated objective centers on establishing human presence across multiple planets. The Starlink broadband internet system now provides connectivity to subscribers in 164 nations and generates approximately 60% of the firm’s $18.67 billion in 2025 revenues.

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According to company disclosures, SpaceX launches have represented over 80% of total orbital payload mass during the preceding three years. The Starlink network currently maintains service for around 10.3 million customers through a constellation comprising 9,600 active satellites.

Early in 2026, SpaceX finalized a combination with Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture xAI. Oppenheimer emerged as the first prominent financial institution to publish coverage, assigning an outperform recommendation with a $190 price objective. New Street Research established a 12-month valuation target at $165.

Goldman Sachs forecasts envision AI-related revenues potentially expanding 100-fold to reach $322 billion by 2030, though analysts acknowledge substantial uncertainty surrounding these projections.

Skeptical Perspectives

Critical voices question whether current valuations reflect fundamental economics. Morningstar assigned SpaceX an intrinsic value of merely $63 per share, characterizing the public offering as “significantly overvalued.” Finance professor Aswath Damodaran calculated enterprise value at $1.22 trillion, substantially below the IPO-implied valuation.

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Prominent short seller Jim Chanos declared the company doesn’t merit a $1.75 trillion valuation “based on any reasonable assumptions.” He observed SpaceX currently trades at approximately 90 times sales, contrasting sharply with Tesla’s 14 times multiple.

Financial statements reveal SpaceX recorded a $4.94 billion net loss during 2025, reversing the $791 million profit generated in 2024. The deficit followed the xAI combination. Revenues climbed 33% compared to the prior year.

Elon Musk maintains an estimated 80–85% of voting authority, substantially limiting public shareholder influence. Pension administrators in California and New York submitted correspondence opposing the offering’s governance framework, highlighting super-voting share classes and compulsory arbitration replacing traditional shareholder litigation rights.

S&P Global rejected requests to expedite SpaceX entry into the S&P 500 index, suggesting passive fund inflows may materialize more gradually than certain market participants anticipated. Nasdaq modified its regulations to permit accelerated inclusion in Nasdaq-affiliated index products, with qualification potentially occurring within 15 days following the listing.

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Exodus Adds 200+ Tokenized Stocks and ETFs Through Ondo

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Exodus Adds 200+ Tokenized Stocks and ETFs Through Ondo

Exodus has launched a marketplace for tokenized assets through a partnership with Ondo Finance, allowing eligible users to trade more than 200 tokenized stocks, ETFs and other real-world assets on Solana directly from the crypto wallet.

The company said Exodus Markets is available in select markets and that users can access the service by updating to the latest version of the app. Tokenized assets do not represent ownership of the underlying securities and do not provide shareholder rights, according to the announcement.

Cointelegraph contacted Exodus to determine which jurisdictions are eligible for Exodus Markets but had not received a response by the time of publication.

Founded in 2015, Exodus is a self-custody crypto wallet provider. RWA.xyz data shows tokenized Exodus shares account for more than $55 million in onchain value, placing them among the largest tokenized equities by market size.

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Top tokenized equities. Source: RWA.xyz

Ondo Finance is one of the largest issuers of tokenized real-world assets. According to RWA.xyz data, the company’s tokenized products hold about $2.7 billion in assets, led by its USDY and OUSG Treasury funds.

Related: TradFi advisers want stablecoins, tokenization over Bitcoin: Bitwise

xStocks leads growth in tokenized equities

The launch comes amid rapid growth in tokenized equities. According to RWA.xyz, the value of tokenized stocks has climbed to $3.5 billion, up more than 139% over the past 30 days, while the number of holders has increased 37% to roughly 357,000.

Much of that growth has been driven by xStocks, a tokenization platform backed by Kraken and issued by Backed Finance. Data shows the company accounts for approximately $2.5 billion in tokenized stock value, representing more than 69% of the sector after growing more than 500% over the past month.

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Source: RWA.xyz

Recently, the trend has expanded into pre-IPO markets, with crypto exchanges racing to offer tokenized exposure to SpaceX ahead of the company’s stock market debut on Friday.

Last week, Kraken announced that SpaceX would become the first company available through its xStocks IPO Access platform, allowing eligible users to trade tokenized shares backed 1:1 by the underlying stock. Days later, Bybit said it would also offer SpaceX through xStocks as the inaugural listing on its new tokenized equity platform.

Binance entered the market in May with a perpetual futures contract tied to SpaceX’s expected pre-IPO valuation, while Coinbase launched pre-IPO markets in June with a SpaceX-linked perpetual futures product for eligible users outside the United States.

Blockchain.com also rolled out a SpaceX-linked perpetual contract this month through its OTC desk as part of a new 24/7 institutional trading platform.

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SpaceX shares gained around 22% shortly after trading began on Friday, rising from an opening price of $135 to about $164 by midday, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Source: Yahoo Finance

However, Bybit announced on Friday that subscribers to its SpaceX IPO offering would receive refunds after xStocks failed to secure the underlying shares needed to fulfill allocations.

Source: Bybit

Magazine: Does ‘Paper Bitcoin’ mean there’s an unlimited supply of BTC?

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Bitcoin Core Developers Find Privacy Bug That Can Leak User IP Addresses

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Bitcoin Core Developers Find Privacy Bug That Can Leak User IP Addresses

Bitcoin Core developers have disclosed a privacy bug that can expose the very detail it was designed to hide, a user’s IP address. A fix will arrive in version 31.1.

The flaw sits in private broadcast, an optional feature added in version 31.0 this April. Developers published the warning on June 6.

How the Privacy Bug Backfires

Private broadcast sends transactions through Tor, an anonymity network famous for accessing the dark web, so recipients never learn where they originated. 

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However, the official advisory admits this promise can break.

The trouble begins when the software attempts an encrypted connection to another computer on the network. If that attempt fails, it quietly retries over a normal connection and skips Tor entirely. The recipient then sees the sender’s real IP address, and with it their approximate location.

Worse, attackers do not need luck. A hostile node can deliberately reject the encrypted handshake and force the revealing retry.

The risk is critical because Bitcoin’s ledger is public. Linking a transaction to an IP address can tie payments to a real person.

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Who is Affected and What to Do

The bug only touches people who run version 31.0 and switched the feature on. Everyday wallet transactions remain unaffected. Developers credit researcher Eugene Siegel with the discovery.

Meanwhile, markets barely flinched. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $63,700, little changed over the past day. Developers now face the quieter job of repairing trust in Bitcoin privacy efforts.

Until version 31.1 ships, affected users should disable the feature or route all their traffic through Tor. The episode follows a recent transaction relay dispute and revives questions about who maintains Bitcoin Core.

The post Bitcoin Core Developers Find Privacy Bug That Can Leak User IP Addresses appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Tokenized RWAs Boom, Kraken SpaceX IPO & SBF Pardon Bid

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Tokenized RWAs Boom, Kraken SpaceX IPO & SBF Pardon Bid

Crypto prices have spent much of the year reacting to macro headlines and regulatory uncertainty, but tokenization has remained one of the industry’s few consistent growth stories. Active real-world assets are surging, banks are embracing blockchain infrastructure and tokenized equities are expanding into new markets.

That momentum was on full display this week as Kraken rolled out tokenized access to the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, offering eligible users in more than 110 markets a chance to participate through xStocks.

Elsewhere, prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling for the first time, and former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried formally asked US President Donald Trump for a pardon.

Tokenized RWAs keep growing through crypto downturn

Tokenized RWAs continue to gain traction despite a weaker crypto market. According to Binance Research, the market for active tokenized RWAs has surged 589% since early 2025, with bonds and money market funds adding $6.5 billion in value while tokenized stocks jumped 422%.

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The sector is also becoming more diversified. Platforms such as Ondo Global Markets have fueled demand for tokenized equities, while tokenized precious metals gained $1.5 billion as investors sought safe-haven assets earlier this year. 

At the same time, traditional financial institutions are expanding their blockchain initiatives, from Apex Group’s tokenized fund services to The Clearing House’s planned tokenized deposit network, highlighting growing adoption beyond crypto-native companies.

RWA growth by asset. Source: Binance Research

SpaceX IPO gets tokenized

Crypto exchange Kraken gave eligible users in more than 110 markets access to the SpaceX IPO through xStocks, allowing investors to purchase tokenized shares of Elon Musk’s aerospace company ahead of its public debut. 

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According to Kraken, investors who received an allocation will be issued SPCXx, a tokenized representation backed 1:1 by the underlying equity and tradable 24/7 across participating platforms.

The launch comes as demand for tokenized equities continues to accelerate. SpaceX targeted a $75 billion raise in its Nasdaq debut, with the offering reportedly oversubscribed by roughly four times ahead of public trading, putting it on track to become the largest IPO in history.

Prediction markets surpass onchain gambling

Prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling for the first time in the first quarter of 2026, generating $36.6 billion in volume compared with gambling’s $14 billion, according to blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs. The milestone comes after both sectors topped $50 billion in annual volume in 2025, underscoring their rapid growth.

Crypto gambling, however, hasn’t lost momentum. Quarterly wagering volume remained near record highs despite the broader market pullback, with TRM attributing the resilience to a loyal and expanding user base. While so-called high rollers – who averaged $13,558 per bet and $378,000 in lifetime gambling volume – still account for most betting volume, casual bettors and daily users are driving the fastest growth, broadening participation across the sector.

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Prediction markets eclipse onchain gambling for the first time. Source: TRM Labs

Sam Bankman-Fried seeks Trump pardon

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has formally applied for a presidential pardon from US President Donald Trump, adding another legal avenue to overturn his conviction in connection with the crypto exchange’s multibillion-dollar collapse. 

The request appears on the US Department of Justice Office of the Pardon Attorney’s list of pending clemency applications. The pardon bid comes as Bankman-Fried continues to appeal his 2023 fraud conviction and 25-year prison sentence after a separate request for a new trial was denied. 

In recent months, he has also posted a series of social media messages that appear increasingly aligned with Trump, despite the president previously saying he did not plan to pardon the former crypto executive.

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Sam Bankman-Fried’s pardon request. Source: Office of the Pardon Attorney

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The U.S. government is betting $2 Billion on quantum computing, and the defense side can’t keep up

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It might be too late for bitcoin’s quantum migration, Project Eleven report argues

This is why the most exposed institutional holders have been waiting. They are waiting for the coordination work to happen, which a research grant does not accomplish. The work needs an actor with the standing to convene the protocol communities, the custodians, and the regulators who must move together. No funded entity has taken on that role at the scale Bitcoin requires.

The geopolitical race

Government funding accelerated the offense. Every dollar that compounds into quantum hardware compresses the defense’s runway.

The day after the U.S. announcement, Emmanuel Macron committed €1 billion to France’s quantum strategy and called for Europe to “change the scale” of investment, naming the U.S. and China as its competitors.

China had already routed roughly $17.5 billion through three regional venture funds before the U.S. announcement landed; the U.S. move now gives Beijing the political cover to authorize another round. This is what a three-way industrial-policy race looks like, and it just compressed everyone’s planning horizon, whether they were ready or not.

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What has to happen now

A serious response begins with coordinated migration work, started before the offense capability matures, because the migration has a long tail, and the runway just got shorter.

What is different about the post-quantum case is the scale of the coordination challenge. Bitcoin is uniquely exposed: any address that has ever spent funds has its public key sitting onchain in the clear, forgeable the moment elliptic curve cryptography breaks, with no way to recall it.

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Tennessee man faces federal charges over alleged $1.9M crypto Ponzi scheme

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Tennessee man faces federal charges over alleged $1.9M crypto Ponzi scheme

Federal prosecutors have charged a Tennessee resident over an alleged cryptocurrency investment operation that authorities say misused investor funds.

Summary

  • Federal prosecutors charged Misam Abidi with operating an alleged crypto Ponzi scheme through Star Credit Holdings.
  • Authorities allege Abidi diverted more than $1.9 million of investor funds to himself and family members.
  • The indictment includes wire fraud, money laundering, unlicensed money transmission, and false tax return charges.

Court documents accuse the defendant of making false claims about returns, reserves, and assets under management. The Justice Department announced the charges on Friday and outlined allegations covering activity between 2020 and 2024.

Prosecutors detail alleged investment scheme

According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Misam M. Abidi, 47, of Nolensville, Tennessee, faces an 11-count federal indictment. Prosecutors allege he operated a crypto investment company called Star Credit Holdings. Authorities claim he attracted investors through promises of high returns and claims about financial protections. 

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The indictment states that Abidi represented the company as managing more capital than it actually controlled. Prosecutors say investors from multiple states provided funds to the operation. Court filings allege that Abidi used investor money for purposes unrelated to legitimate trading activities. 

Prosecutors claim he paid earlier participants with funds received from newer investors. The indictment describes that structure as a Ponzi-style operation. Authorities also allege he directed investor funds toward personal expenses. According to prosecutors, more than $1.9 million went to Abidi and members of his family.

Authorities cite loans and tax allegations

Federal prosecutors also accuse Abidi of helping investors obtain personal loans. According to the indictment, those loans provided additional funds for Star Credit Holdings. Authorities claim Abidi encouraged investors to borrow money in their own names. Prosecutors further allege he submitted false information connected to at least one loan application. Court documents state that one affidavit falsely claimed an investor’s identity had been stolen.

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The indictment also includes allegations tied to federal tax filings. Prosecutors claim Abidi failed to report income connected to the investment operation. Authorities allege those omissions resulted in false tax returns. Federal investigators included tax-related offenses among the listed criminal counts. The charges remain allegations unless proven in court.

U.S. Attorney D. Michael Dunavant addressed the case in a public statement. “Ponzi schemes, cryptocurrency scams, and financial fraud can be devastating to individual investors,” Dunavant said. He added that such conduct can harm financial institutions and the U.S. Treasury. Dunavant also praised federal agencies involved in the investigation. He stated that prosecutors would pursue financial fraud cases throughout the district.

The indictment lists multiple federal offenses

The federal indictment includes several criminal counts. Prosecutors charged Abidi with wire fraud and money laundering offenses. Authorities also charged him with operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business. The indictment further includes counts related to false tax return preparation. Each charge carries separate penalties under federal law. 

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Federal investigators have not announced a trial date. Court proceedings will continue in the coming months. If a jury convicts Abidi on all counts, he could face decades in federal prison. The Justice Department announced the indictment on Friday as the latest development in the case.

This offense comes at a time when US lawmakers are trying to cope with crime. As it was reported by crypto.news, bipartisan lawmakers have introduced the Federal Cryptocurrency Theft Enforcement and Coordination Act. The bill would create a federal task force led by the attorney general and involving the DOJ, FBI, Homeland Security, and Treasury.

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Bitcoin Bottom Debate: Standard Chartered and Galaxy Agree on Just One Thing

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Bitcoin price chart showing the June drop to $59,000 and recovery above $63,000, alt text

Standard Chartered says the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom is in at $59,000, while Galaxy Research argues the true low remains months away. However, both firms now reject the brutal 80% collapse that closed every previous market cycle.

Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered made his call in a Friday client note. Meanwhile, Galaxy’s Alex Thorn released a data-heavy cycle study this week arguing for patience.

Bitcoin price chart showing the June drop to $59,000 and recovery above $63,000, alt text
Bitcoin price chart showing the June drop to $59,000 and recovery above $63,000, alt text “Bitcoin bottom debate”, Source: BeInCrypto]

Standard Chartered Calls the Bitcoin Bottom at $59,000

Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, said the slide to $59,000 marked this cycle’s low. That level sits 53% below October’s $126,000 all-time high.

“I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle. That would be USD59k for BTC (53% down from USD126k high)… Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” Kendrick wrote in the note to clients.

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Two catalysts support his view. President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran on Thursday and said a deal could be signed within days, before the June 15-17 G7 summit in Evian.

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A truce could end the oil rally that pushed Treasury yields higher and punished risk assets.

SpaceX’s record $75 billion listing, the largest in history, is the second. Kendrick argued some ETF holders sold fund shares to free up cash for Friday’s Nasdaq debut.

Indeed, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost roughly $4.3 billion across the record ETF outflow streak of 13 straight sessions.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue

Notably, the $59,000 turn sits above Kendrick’s own February forecast of a capitulation near $50,000, which he framed as a buy level for a $100,000 year-end target.

BTC traded near $63,854 as of this writing.

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Galaxy Sees the Floor Closer to $40,000

Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, reached the opposite conclusion. He said the four-year cycle is compressing, and that compression changes where the floor sits.

Galaxy anchored its thesis to the Bitcoin halvings that cut new supply every four years. It found that only four of the 13 signals that marked every prior bottom have triggered.

Moreover, the current 51% decline remains far milder than the 77% to 85% drops that ended past cycles.

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Timing matters too. Past bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after each top, and this cycle sits just eight months past its October peak.

Consequently, Galaxy’s base case puts the floor between $40,000 and $46,000, arriving by late 2026. That timing echoes separate calls for a bottom in October 2026.

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

“A calmer top has raised the floor, but it has not removed it,” read an excerpt in the Galaxy report.

The report also warns the floor itself can fall if a real panic emerges.

Where the Two Forecasts Meet

Despite the disagreement, both firms say the four-year cycle remains intact, just gentler. Galaxy’s data shows each bear market has grown shallower, shrinking from 85% to 84% to 77% across three cycles.

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Market structure explains why.

Galaxy notes the aggregate cost basis of holders sits at 43.7% of the prior peak, versus roughly a third in earlier cycles.

Therefore, a classic capitulation would end at a much higher dollar price today.

ETF demand and corporate treasuries support that elevated cost basis. In contrast, retail-driven cycles produced the deep washouts of 2015, 2018, and 2022.

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The coming days offer a quick test. Standard Chartered wants Friday ETF inflows, lower oil prices, and proof that Strategy’s 32 BTC sale was a one-off.

Those signals may show which forecast cracks first.

The post Bitcoin Bottom Debate: Standard Chartered and Galaxy Agree on Just One Thing appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Will Bitcoin’s 200-Week Moving Average Ruin the BTC Price Comeback?

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Will Bitcoin's 200-Week Moving Average Ruin the BTC Price Comeback?

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $64,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open while analysis warned of “unreliable” BTC price support.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin hits local highs during the US trading session as US-Iran peace hopes offer modest risk-asset relief.
  • SpaceX looks set to launch the largest IPO ever witnessed,
  • BTC price concerns linger over the ability of a key trend line to hold as support.

Crypto, risk assets “shrug off” inflation headwinds

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD retaining gains as crypto and risk-asset markets surfed mixed signals over a US-Iran peace deal.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

At the time of writing, there was no official information about whether a deal would go ahead, with US President Donald Trump rebutting details from the Iranian side. 

“What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth,” he wrote in his latest post on Truth Social.

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Source: Truth Social

Stocks opted to tread water at the US open on the day that SpaceX launched the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Shares were slated to debut at $170 — $45 above the initial IPO price.

In a fresh analysis, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company said that markets now faced a combination of a strong labor market and high inflation.

“While equity markets seemed to shrug off inflation fears and the impact to valuations and monetary policy, better economic data is giving the average stock a reason to rally,” it summarized in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts update. 

“While some of the air is being released from the massive rally in AI infrastructure stocks, laggards off the late March lows are turning up recently.”

S&P 500 chart data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

As Cointelegraph reported, this week’s US inflation data set new multi-year records on the back of the US-Iran war and its impact on oil prices.

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BTC price 200-week trend line in focus

While Bitcoin saw new local highs near $64,000, market participants remained highly cautious on the outlook.

Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottom

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital was suspicious of a long-term trend line holding up price — the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $62,025.

“Bitcoin is currently treating the 200-week SMA as support. But this SMA has historically proven to be an unreliable support, with price breaking down from it over time,” he warned X followers.

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BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Rekt Capital saw additional friction coming from the fact that BTC/USD had dropped below old all-time highs from 2021.

“This deviation below old All Time Highs for Bitcoin tends to take months to fully develop to ultimately form a Bear Market bottom,” he commented.

“Though Bitcoin has deviated -14% below old ATHs thus far, this process is still technically ongoing and will be for a while.”

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

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