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Most Undervalued Since March 2023 at $20K, BTC Price Metric

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is approaching what on-chain researchers describe as an undervalued zone for the first time in more than three years, according to CryptoQuant’s latest data. The market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, a classic gauge of whether Bitcoin is fairly valued relative to the price at which the supply last moved, has moved toward a breakeven point after a months-long downtrend that followed an October 2025 all-time high. Last week’s price action saw BTC dip below $60,000, a level that has framed the market’s sentiment and testing of support in recent cycles. With the MVRV metric hovering near 1.1, analysts say the asset is edging into territory that historically accompanies accumulation and potential reversal, though they caution that no single indicator guarantees a bottom.

Key takeaways

  • The MVRV ratio is approaching its key breakeven threshold for the first time in more than three years, signaling a potential move toward undervaluation.
  • CryptoQuant data show the MVRV reading around 1.1, the lowest since March 2023 when Bitcoin was trading near $20,000.
  • Analysts emphasize that when MVRV dips below 1, Bitcoin tends to be undervalued; the current reading sits above that level but within a range historically tied to bottoms or near-bottom conditions.
  • The two-year rolling Z-score of the MVRV ratio has recently reached historic lows, a pattern some traders compare to prior bear-market bottoms, suggesting accumulation dynamics may be forming.
  • Past commentary notes that the Downdraft since the October 2025 peak has not featured a rapid ascent into an overvalued zone, a nuance that could differentiate this cycle’s bottom formation from earlier ones.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: On-chain signals come as Bitcoin experiences a multi-quarter consolidation after a new all-time high, with traders watching MVRV and Z-score metrics alongside price levels around $60,000. The combination of shifting on-chain signals and macro risk sentiment will likely influence whether the current downtrend resumes or a broader accumulation phase takes hold.

Why it matters

On-chain metrics like MVRV provide a lens into the psychological and behavioral underpinnings of Bitcoin’s price action. When the market value to realized value ratio approaches breakeven, commentators interpret it as a potential signal that the supply-weighted cost basis is, on average, becoming cheaper relative to current market prices. CryptoQuant contributors have highlighted that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio hovered around 1.13 after Bitcoin’s dip below the $60,000 level last week—the lowest print since March 2023, when BTC traded near $20,000. That backdrop matters because it frames a broader narrative: the asset may be transitioning from a drawdown phase into a period where long-term holders could be stepping in at historically favorable levels.

“Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.”

CryptoQuant’s analysis emphasizes that the current reading should be interpreted in the context of a four-month downtrend that followed Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak. The team notes that the market did not experience a sharp move into an obviously overvalued zone during the most recent bull cycle, a nuance that could influence how traders interpret the “bottom formation” narrative this time around. The research argues that such a structural difference could mean the eventual bottom may form gradually rather than through a sudden capitulation event—a scenario that has implications for long-term investors and risk teams evaluating exposure.

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“The current Z-Score of $BTC is lower than during the bear market bottom in 2015, 2018, COVID crash 2020 and 2022,”

commented Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, underscoring how the present configuration differs from prior cycles. In another update, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain used a separate Z-score iteration to characterize BTC/USD as being in a “capitulation zone,” a reading that some interpret as an early stage of accumulation pressure forming behind the scenes. The analyst framed the takeaway as an invitation to consider the bottom could be forged in the current environment rather than simply waiting for a textbook capitulation event to materialize.

“The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase,”

GugaOnChain wrote, adding that the statistical deviation captured by the Z-score points to opportunity rather than imminent disaster. While the language is nuanced, the consensus in these on-chain circles is that Bitcoin’s downside risk may be increasingly limited as long-term holders show willingness to accumulate near these levels.

What to watch next

  • Track the MVRV ratio for a breakeven shift toward or below 1.0, which historically signals stronger undervaluation periods or a local bottom formation.
  • Monitor the two-year rolling Z-score trajectory for a sustained move away from capitulation readings toward accumulation-style behavior.
  • Observe Bitcoin price action around key support zones, particularly a continued hold above $60,000 and any subsequent retests that could validate the on-chain narrative.
  • Look for corroborating on-chain signals, such as realized-cap data and transaction-flow metrics, that would reinforce a shift from distribution to accumulation.

Sources & verification

  • CryptoQuant analysis on Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio and the “undervalued” zone hypothesis.
  • CryptoQuant commentary on Z-score readings and capitulation-zone signals for BTC/USD.
  • Cointelegraph coverage of Bitcoin’s price action, including the recent dip below $60,000 and prior bear-market analyses referenced in related on-chain pieces.
  • Historical context from on-chain reporting on prior cycle bottoms (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022) and the 2023 regime when MVRV prints below 1.

Bitcoin’s on-chain signals point toward undervaluation and potential bottom formation

Bitcoin’s current on-chain narrative centers on a delicate balance between valuation signals and price action. The MVRV ratio, long used to gauge whether market prices are aligned with realized on-chain cost bases, has begun to test a breakeven threshold after a prolonged downtrend. The latest reads show MVRV around 1.1, a level that CryptoQuant contributors describe as edging into an undervaluation zone. This is especially notable given that the most recent weekly close saw BTC slip under the $60,000 mark, a psychological line that has acted as both a magnet and a ceiling in various market regimes. The juxtaposition of a price discipline around key levels with an MVRV metric that says, metaphorically, “value is being accumulated near the current prices,” fuels a nuanced debate on whether a lasting bottom is imminent or whether further consolidation is necessary before a durable uptrend can resume. (CRYPTO: BTC)

CryptoQuant researchers emphasize that when MVRV falls below 1, the signal is a cleaner undervaluation flag. While the current approximation sits around 1.1 rather than 1.0, the interpretation remains constructive: price levels could reflect a rising probability of longer-term value attraction. The last time MVRV explicitly dipped below 1 was at the start of 2023, when BTC traded around $20,000. The comparison underscores that the present cycle has delivered a different flavor of bottoming dynamics, one that may unfold more gradually than in prior cycles. The source notes that the peak-to-trough structure of the current drawdown did not send the market into a textbook overvalued regime, which broadens the set of possible scenarios around the eventual bottom and subsequent recovery.

“Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.”

Beyond the MVRV signal, the market is attuned to the behavior of another metric set—the Z-scores that measure how far current values diverge from historical patterns. In two-year windows, the MVRV Z-score has dipped to an all-time low in several instances, a pattern analysts say mirrors the kinds of bottoming behavior seen in previous cycles. Michaël van de Poppe has highlighted that the current Z-score is lower than what was observed at major bear-market bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, though no single metric guarantees an outcome. A different analyst, GugaOnChain, has used an alternate Z-score variant to characterize BTC/USD as being in a capitulation zone—an environment that often precedes accumulation-driven rebounds. The underlying message is that the bottom formation, if it is underway, could be a more drawn-out process than in some historical episodes, with on-chain dynamics providing nuance that price charts alone might miss.

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These signals come at a time when the broader market is listening closely to on-chain data instead of relying solely on momentum-driven narratives. The combination of a price dip to sub-60k levels and a valuation framework that points toward undervaluation is generating renewed interest among long-term holders who recall similar cycles in which the real value of Bitcoin begins to assert itself well before a definitive price breakout appears on traditional charts. In this light, the discussion shifts from whether a bottom exists to how convincingly the current readings could translate into a sustainable reversal once the cycle completes its consolidation phase. The narrative remains contingent on a confluence of factors, including future price action, on-chain flows, and macro risks that continue to shape risk appetite across the crypto ecosystem.

The analysis, while nuanced, reinforces a cautious yet curious stance among observers: the market may be near a critical juncture where valuation signals begin to align with price stability and eventual demand. As ever, the caution remains that on-chain indicators offer probabilities, not certainties, and that a range of outcomes remains plausible depending on how external forces evolve in the weeks ahead.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

BTC climbs off of worst levels on Strait of Hormuz hopes

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'Murban crude oil' surges past $100, posing risk to bitcoin and risk assets

The Nasdaq mostly erased an early 2% loss Thursday after reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about disruptions to a key global oil route.

WTI crude oil — which had surged to nearly $115 per barrel as President Trump vowed to continue the war against Iran — fell about $5 on the news.

Crypto prices trimmed losses alongside, but remained sharply lower over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin at $66,700 is down by 3%, and ether (ETH) at $2,060 is down by the same amount.

Iranian officials framed the move as a matter of coordination rather than control. The country’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, said that even under normal conditions, ship traffic through the strait should be monitored and coordinated with coastal states like Iran and Oman to ensure safety. He added that the proposed measures are not intended to restrict passage, but to “facilitate and ensure safe passage” and improve services for vessels moving through the route.

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The remarks come after U.S. President Trump on Wednesday night vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and that the Strait of Hormuz would “open naturally” once the war ends.

Bitcoin fell after Trump’s remarks and continues to trade about 2% lower over the past 24 hours, in line with crypto stocks, including Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD).

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DeFi Is Optimizing For gas, Not For Markets

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DeFi Is Optimizing For gas, Not For Markets

Opinion by: João Garcia, DevReal lead at Cartesi.

Decentralized finance presents itself as a transparent alternative to Wall Street. Yet, what it has largely reconstructed is a simplified version of finance, engineered less around market resilience than around the constraints of gas fees. That trade-off, once treated as a technical footnote, is increasingly shaping the limits of what DeFi can become.

So long as computational minimalism remains the overriding priority, financial robustness will remain secondary, and periods of market stress will continue to expose that imbalance.

When markets move faster than the virtual machine

DeFi has rebuilt the familiar architecture of finance, including exchanges, lending markets, derivatives and stablecoins. However, the way these systems function reveals how tightly they are bound by their execution environments.

Risk parameters tend to remain static, and although collateral thresholds can adjust, they typically do so slowly, through governance processes rather than automatic recalibration. Liquidation engines currently rely on fixed formulas rather than adaptive portfolio models that account for shifting volatility or correlations. What appears as a design preference is often a concession to computational limits.

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On Ethereum and similar chains, floating-point arithmetic is absent or emulated, iterative simulations are expensive, and continuously recomputing cross-asset exposure can quickly become impractical. The outcome is that financial logic is compressed into forms that are deterministic and affordable to execute, even if that compression strips away nuance.

This architecture performs adequately in stable conditions, but volatility has a way of testing its edges. During MakerDAO’s “Black Thursday” event in March 2020, vaults were liquidated at effectively zero bids, as auction mechanics struggled under collapsing prices and network congestion. 

In later downturns, protocols such as Aave and Compound leaned on mass liquidations triggered by fixed collateral ratios, rather than dynamic portfolio recalculations. When Curve’s pools were destabilized in 2023 following a smart contract exploit, the stress radiated outward into lending protocols that treated LP tokens as static collateral, compounding systemic risk.

In each instance, decentralization itself was not the breaking point. Rather, rigid financial logic operated inside an execution layer that could not continuously recompute risk as conditions deteriorated.

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Traditional markets evolved in the opposite direction. Banks and clearinghouses simulate thousands of stress scenarios, recalculating exposure as correlations shift and volatility regimes change. Margin requirements respond dynamically to market conditions, and the response is led by substantial computational infrastructure and mature numerical tooling. Public blockchains, by contrast, were not designed with that degree of iterative financial processing in mind.

The illusion of simplicity

Constraining computational complexity reduces certain attack surfaces. Simplicity at the protocol layer, however, does not dissolve complexity in the financial system. It merely pushes it elsewhere.

When risk cannot be modeled and recomputed transparently on-chain, it migrates off-chain into dashboards, analytics teams, discretionary parameter adjustments and emergency governance coordination. The blockchain may remain the settlement layer, but the adaptive intelligence that stabilizes the system increasingly operates outside it. During volatility spikes, protocols often depend on rapid human coordination to adjust parameters, while oracles and large token holders acquire disproportionate influence over outcomes.

The system retains its decentralized base, yet its capacity to respond flexibly depends on actors operating beyond deterministic execution. What appears structurally simple at the smart contract level can conceal a more complex and less transparent operational reality.

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DeFi did not converge on simplified finance because static ratios and deterministic curves were proven superior. It converged there because richer computational models were prohibitively expensive to run. As markets deepen, leverage increases, and instruments grow more interdependent, that compromise becomes harder to ignore. Fixed thresholds and blunt liquidation engines, initially safeguards, can begin to function as amplifiers of stress.

Computation as a missing primitive

The deeper constraint, more than decentralization, is execution design.

If verifiable execution environments begin to approximate general-purpose computing systems, the financial design space expands. Native floating-point assistance, iterative algorithms and access to established numerical libraries would allow models to be expressed directly rather than translated into simplified approximations. 

Related: Wall Street will eventually submit to the rules of DeFi

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This change would allow lending protocols to incorporate scenario-based stress testing instead of relying primarily on fixed collateral ratios. Margin requirements may also adjust in response to observed volatility rather than governance cadence. It could also see credit systems recompute multivariable risk scores transparently, replacing binary heuristics with more granular assessments.

The aim is not to introduce complexity for its own sake. It is to keep financial intelligence inside the protocol, where it remains visible and enforceable, rather than externalizing it into operational layers that users cannot easily audit. This underscores the broader point that the limitations confronting DeFi are largely architectural choices, not inevitabilities of decentralization.

A credibility ceiling

DeFi now stands at a structural crossroads. One direction preserves gas-optimized minimalism, keeping base-layer execution clean while allowing increasingly sophisticated financial logic to migrate off-chain. That path may maintain clarity at the smart contract level, but it constrains how far decentralized finance can responsibly scale.

The alternative is to treat computation itself as a first-class primitive and to accept more capable execution environments in exchange for systems that can adapt, recompute and stress-test transparently. If complex risk logic cannot live on-chain, DeFi will continue to project simplicity in code while relying on discretion in practice.

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Markets will not moderate their complexity to accommodate virtual machine constraints. If decentralized finance intends to operate at a meaningful scale, its computational foundations will have to evolve alongside the financial ambitions built on top of them.

Opinion by: João Garcia, DevReal lead at Cartesi.