Crypto World
Mother of Olympics TV host kidnapped for bitcoin ransom
Nancy Guthrie, the 84 year-old mother of Today host Savannah Guthrie, was kidnapped from her rural Tuscon, Arizona home on February 1. While law enforcement has refused to confirm or deny whether two ransom notes sent to TMZ, KOLD, and KGUN were real, the media is operating under the assumption that they are.
The notes included two deadlines — one that passed without any updates and another that TMZ states has “an element of ‘or else’” — and demanded $6 million worth of bitcoin (BTC).
Media outlets haven’t clarified if the abductors are demanding a specific amount of BTC or a specific amount valued in dollars. If they’re demanding a specific number of BTC, the recent fall in the price could actually suggest that more than $6 million worth of the cryptocurrency was originally demanded.
As of today, $6 million would equate to roughly 85 BTC, on February 1, it would be 75-76 BTC.
Savannah Guthrie has hosted NBC’s coverage of three recent Olympic games, however, she’s understandably unable to host this year.
During the opening ceremony, three hosts acknowledged her difficult situation and wished her well.
A hoax and a second note
In a confusing set of circumstances, a man from California sent the Guthries a fake ransom demand shortly before the likely real kidnappers, who had originally stated they wouldn’t contact any media or the family in the first note, sent a second ransom note.
A local reporter at KOLD spoke to CNN and stated that the note was shorter than the first and seemed to be an attempt to provide some sort of proof they still had Guthrie in their possession.
Reporters have suggested that the emailed ransom demands are extremely secure and unlikely to be traced.
Read more: Crypto execs hiring private security after high-profile kidnappings, report
Sloppy or brilliant?
It is difficult to establish whether the Guthrie abductors are brilliant, investigators have been sloppy, or some combination of the two.
Surprises have included that there has reportedly been no footage obtained of either the perpetrators or the vehicle(s) in which they escaped, no suggestion that a so-called “proof-of-life” has been shared with the family, and that the abductors used BTC instead of a coin that is easier to shield, such as Monero or Zcash.
It’s unknown if the kidnappers have demanded the BTC be sent to a single wallet address or want it broken up, or if they believe they know an exchange or mixer that would reliably accept the BTC and not be easily traced.
Damning for law enforcement is the fact that they have combed through the crime scene in Tuscon at least three times and have yet to come up with any leads or new information to share with the public.
A deadline and an introduction
It’s still unclear which timezone the 5:00pm deadline refers to or what threat is being levelled. The Guthries have sent out a distressing, public video in which they speak directly to the kidnappers.
“We received your message and we understand. We beg you now to return our mother to us so that we can celebrate with her. This is the only way that we will have peace. This is very valuable to us and we will pay.”
While there’s little doubt that this horrifying crime has had a profound effect on the Guthrie family, Savannah Guthrie’s co-workers at Today, and others close to her, it’s also becoming more clear that entirely new demographics of the US population are about to be introduced to one of the absolute darkest sides to crypto.
The Today show averages almost 3 million viewers a day, with those who regularly tune in skewing older.
This means that an ongoing and growing global problem — that crypto is enabling kidnappers and extortionists to set up scam call centers or abduct the mother of a wealthy celebrity — will begin to finally worry older Americans.
Perhaps a new issue for the “Crypto President.”
Not surprising, but shocking
Anyone who’s been following crypto for the past several years has heard about pig butchering.
The scam works by luring victims, usually from developing nations like China and Thailand, to vast scam call center campuses almost always located in Cambodia, Laos, or Myanmar.
Once the victim arrives, they’re imprisoned in apartment blocks and offices where they’re forced to cold text and call Westerners and romance them in a long con to get crypto.
Read more: Bitcoin torture suspects granted bail in Manhattan court
An underreported, but important, element of the pig butchering scam is that victims are often able to contact family members to demand a ransom for their eventual release.
While an outsized ransom, such as the $6 million in BTC being demanded by the Nancy Guthrie kidnappers, is never asked for, the numbers are still high enough as to be out of reach for an average Chinese or Thai family.
This leads to victims languishing in the compounds for months or years at a time, but also leads pig butcherers to a secondary, less profitable source of income: kidnapping.
In this sense, perhaps the Guthrie kidnapping, while equal parts disturbing, terrible, and disheartening, is an important spotlight on what is now becoming a problem for everyone: cryptocurrency providing kidnappers a new, innovative way to actually get away with it.
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The Solana price has staged a sharp recovery after a steep decline inside a falling channel. After slipping toward the lower part of that structure, SOL found strong support near $67 in early February and rebounded over 30%. The bounce was fueled by dip buying, possibly by the most hopeful crowd.
At first glance, the rebound looks convincing. But the SOL price is still trapped below major resistance, and on-chain data shows mixed conviction. The market now faces a critical test: whether buyers can turn this bounce into a sustained recovery, or whether selling pressure will return and drag the price lower again.
Dip Buyers Defended Key Support Zone
Solana’s rebound began before the price reached the bottom of its falling channel. Instead, buyers stepped in early near the $67 zone, which acted as an internal support level while the price was still sliding lower.
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On February 6, SOL printed a long lower wick on the daily candle near $67. A long lower wick shows that buyers aggressively absorbed selling pressure and rejected lower prices. This type of candle often appears when demand suddenly strengthens during panic phases.
This behavior was reinforced by the Money Flow Index (MFI). MFI combines price and volume to measure whether money is flowing into or out of an asset. Rising MFI during falling prices usually signals dip accumulation.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Between December 18 and February 6, Solana’s price trended lower, but MFI trended higher. This bullish divergence showed that capital was steadily entering the market despite the downtrend. In simple terms, buyers were active even while the price was falling.
This early defense of $67 prevented Solana from sliding straight to the channel’s lower boundary. It created the base for the 30% rebound. But early dip buying alone is not enough to sustain a trend. To understand whether this support is durable, we need to see who is holding after the bounce.
Long-Term SOL Holders Are Returning, But Conviction Remains Limited
After the dip, attention shifted to long-term investors.
For this, we look at Hodler Net Position Change (30-day). This metric tracks whether wallets holding SOL for more than 155 days are accumulating or distributing. These investors usually provide the backbone of long-term trends.
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On February 6, long-term holders were adding around 1.88 million SOL. By February 8, this figure had risen to roughly 1.97 million SOL. That represents an increase of about 5% in net accumulation.
This shows that conviction holders have started to return after the crash, aligning with the dip buying strength. That is a constructive signal, because sustainable recoveries rarely happen without their participation.
However, the pace remains slow. In strong recovery phases, long-term accumulation usually accelerates rapidly. Here, buying is cautious and incremental. This suggests that investors are testing the rebound rather than fully committing to it.
Because long-term conviction is still developing, the rebound remains vulnerable. That makes the behavior of short-term traders even more important.
Short-Term Selling Has Eased, But Loss Pressure Has Not Cleared
The 1-Day to 1-Week Holder Cohort, which represents highly reactive wallets, began selling into the bounce. On February 7, this group held about 8.32% of the SOL supply. By February 9, that share had fallen to around 5.40%. This is a nearly 35% decline in just two days, as shown by the HODL Waves data.
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This metric segregates SOL wallets based how long coins have been held.
Despite this selling, the price held most of its gains. This shows that dip buyers, possibly the longer-term investors, absorbed the exits. That is a positive sign. However, another risk remains visible in Short-Term Holder NUPL, which measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss.
On February 6, NUPL dropped to around -0.95, reflecting extreme losses and panic. After the rebound, it improved to roughly -0.70. That is an improvement of about 26%.
Losses have eased, but short-term holders are still deeply underwater. Historically, early NUPL recoveries often lead to unstable bottoms. Losses have eased too early. If price fails to move higher soon, remaining short-term holders may sell again to avoid deeper drawdowns. That could trigger another wave of pressure. This brings the focus back to the price chart.
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Why $96 Will Decide Whether the Solana Price Bounce Survives or Fails
All technical and on-chain signals now converge around the same area.
Since the rebound, Solana has been trapped between roughly $80 and $96. This range reflects hesitation from both buyers and sellers.
As long as the price stays above $80, the rebound remains intact, despite possible short-term selling. But if $80 breaks, the next major zone sits near $67–$64. A loss of that area would reopen the path toward $41, which represents roughly a 50% downside from current levels and aligns with the broader channel projection.
This is the structural risk that still hangs over the market.
On the upside, $96 remains the most important level, the key test. It acted as strong support before the early February breakdown and now functions as major resistance.
A sustained break above $96 would signal renewed confidence. From there, Solana could target $116 and potentially $148. Without reclaiming this level, bounces are likely to stall. Right now, the price is still below this barrier.
Long-term buying is cautious. Short-term losses have eased too early. Until $96 is reclaimed with strong participation, the rebound lacks confirmation.
Chiliz, the sports and fan engagement blockchain, has unveiled a three-phase roadmap outlining how it plans to expand Fan Tokens ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States.
The project is making a big return to the US market with new Fan Token launches tied to national teams and broader blockchain expansion. Detailed in its newly released 2030 manifesto, the roadmap positions 2026 as the year Chiliz moves from experimentation to full-scale execution.
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Regulatory Clarity Paves the US Market Re-Entry
The company says it expects to announce its first US Fan Token partnerships in Q1 2026, marking a return after several years of limited activity due to regulatory uncertainty.
In parallel, Chiliz plans to launch Fan Tokens linked to national teams in summer 2026. Unlike club-based tokens, national team Fan Tokens are designed around major tournaments and international competitions.
With the World Cup approaching, Chiliz is targeting a broader, event-driven fan base beyond traditional club supporters.
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Another major change arriving in 2026 is Chiliz’s move to an omnichain model. Starting in the first quarter, Fan Tokens will be bridged to external blockchains using cross-chain infrastructure.
In simple terms, this allows Fan Tokens to move outside the Chiliz ecosystem and interact with other blockchains.
The shift is designed to improve liquidity, enable cross-chain trading and arbitrage, and allow Fan Tokens to be used in decentralized finance applications beyond their native network.
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New Tokenomics and Product Upgrades Roll Out Through 2026
In the second quarter of 2026, Chiliz plans to activate a new value-accrual mechanism for its native CHZ token.
Under the new model, 10% of all Fan Token revenues generated across the ecosystem will be used for ongoing CHZ buybacks. The company says this links CHZ demand directly to fan’s activity.
Product upgrades are also scheduled for mid-2026.
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Socios.com, the consumer platform behind Fan Tokens, will launch a new version with DeFi wallet integration.
Later in the year, Chiliz plans to introduce performance-based token mechanics. Match results will directly affect Fan Token supply, with wins triggering token burns and losses leading to new token issuance.
Beyond 2026, Chiliz’s roadmap shifts toward tokenized real-world assets in sports. From 2027 onward, the company plans to tokenize revenue streams, intellectual property, and other traditionally illiquid sports assets.
The roadmap builds on recent developments across the Chiliz ecosystem, including revenue-linked buyback commitments and a growing focus on infrastructure over short-term price action.
With the World Cup approaching, Chiliz is betting that Fan Tokens can evolve from engagement tools into a globally traded sports asset class.
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Bitcoin (BTC) pushed back above $71,000 on Monday, after market sentiment indicators across the crypto market dropped to new lows.
Some analysts believed that “extreme fear” and upside liquidity may help Bitcoin hold above its yearly-low at $60,000, but others warned that weak market conditions and bearish futures volume may push prices even lower.
Key takeaways:
-
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a record low of 7, showing extreme fear in the market.
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More than $5.5 billion in short liquidations above current prices may fuel a rebound.
-
Weak price trends and rising derivatives selling may still drag Bitcoin below $60,000.
Sentiment and liquidation suggeset $60,000 remains support
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin is flashing sentiment readings that have previously marked market bottoms. According to Van De Poppe, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped to 5 over the weekend (final recorded reading is 7), its lowest reading in history, while the daily relative strength index (RSI) for BTC has fallen to 15, signaling deeply oversold conditions.
These levels were last seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Van de Poppe said such conditions may allow BTC to exhibit recovery and avoid an immediate retest of the $60,000 level.
CoinGlass data adds to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows over $5.45 billion in cumulative short liquidations positioned if the price moves roughly $10,000 higher, compared with $2.4 billion in liquidations on a retest of $60,000.
This imbalance suggests that an upward move may trigger forced shorts covering, leading to a BTC rally.
Related: Bitcoin circles $70K as Coinbase Premium sees first green spike in a month
BTC structural weakness keeps downside risks in focus
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin trading below its 50-day moving average near $87,000, while further below the 200-day moving average around $102,000. This wide gap reflects a corrective or “repricing” phase following the prior rally.
CryptoQuant’s Price Z-Score is also negative at -1.6, indicating BTC is trading below its statistical mean, a sign of selling pressure and trend exhaustion. Such conditions have preceded extended base-building rather than immediate rebounds.
Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted a growing selling dominance in the derivatives markets. Monthly net taker volume has turned sharply negative at -$272 million on Sunday, while Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has slipped below 1, signaling a strong selling pressure.
With futures volumes outweighing spot flows at the moment, stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a bullish reaction from BTC.
Adding a longer-term caution, Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that past Bitcoin bear market bottoms formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. For the current cycle, that level sits near $57,000, with deeper downside scenarios extending toward $42,000 if history repeats.
Related: Saylor’s Strategy buys $90M in Bitcoin as price trades below cost basis
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Former Ryan Salame, a onetime co-CEO of FTX, has launched a highly visible social media campaign that appears aimed at securing a presidential pardon from Donald Trump, despite currently serving a federal prison sentence.
Over recent weeks, Salame’s X account has posted a stream of politically charged messages praising Republican priorities, attacking Democrats, and aligning closely with Trump’s rhetoric on immigration enforcement and election integrity.
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In one post, Salame said that if granted clemency, he would “spend the remainder of my sentence working as an ICE agent,” a comment that quickly went viral.
In another, he argued voter ID laws were being misrepresented and suggested that funding IDs would “end the Democrats’ fake pretending” about voter suppression.
He is also promising to pay for legal citizens to get IDs to vote, for those who can’t afford. Only if he were free.
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How is Salame Posting From Prison?
Salame is currently serving a 90-month federal sentence at a medium-security US Bureau of Prisons facility.
In 2023, he pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business connected to FTX.
But how is he constantly posting on X from prison? Federal inmates are prohibited from accessing social media directly.
As a result, his posts are widely understood to be published via third parties acting on his behalf, typically based on phone calls, written correspondence, or pre-approved messaging — a common workaround used by high-profile inmates.
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Attacking Prosecutors, Echoing Trump Themes
Several posts directly attack federal prosecutors, including claims that he was coerced into a plea deal and that the Department of Justice misled him about investigations involving his wife.
Salame has repeatedly framed his prosecution as politically motivated — language that mirrors Trump’s broader criticism of the DOJ.
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Trump’s High-Profile Pardons
Salame’s public posture comes amid Trump’s recent wave of pardons and commutations, including several tied to crypto and financial crimes.
Those moves have reshaped expectations around clemency, particularly for defendants who argue their prosecutions reflected regulatory overreach.
Trump has also intensified ICE enforcement actions and revived claims that Democrats — including President Joe Biden — undermined election integrity, themes Salame now openly amplifies.
While Salame has not explicitly requested a pardon, the messaging leaves little ambiguity.
From prison, the former FTX executive appears to be making a public case for inclusion on Trump’s clemency list. He is aligning himself with the president’s political agenda as aggressively as possible, one post at a time.
A large Dogecoin transfer to Robinhood has drawn attention amid a volatile crypto market. On Saturday, 203.6 million DOGE—worth roughly $20.1 million—was moved from an unknown wallet to the trading platform, coinciding with a 6% rebound in Dogecoin’s price.
Summary
- A large Dogecoin “whale” transfer to Robinhood—203.6 million DOGE worth about $20.1 million—coincided with a 6% price rebound.
- Nearly 278 million DOGE moved to Robinhood on February 4, signaling heightened activity by large holders during unstable market conditions.
- Whale Alert data shows this was the second major transfer in days.
The move followed several days of declines and marked a short-term reversal from a broader downward trend.
According to Whale Alert, this was not an isolated event.
Just days earlier, on February 4, nearly 278 million DOGE valued at about $29.5 million was also transferred to Robinhood. These repeated large movements suggest heightened activity by major holders during a period of market instability.
The broader cryptocurrency market has struggled since a sharp sell-off in October that eroded investor confidence. More recently, prices have been pressured by the unwinding of leveraged positions and increased volatility. Dogecoin fell for three consecutive sessions, hitting a low of $0.0799 on February 6 before rebounding to around $0.10, with losses attributed to risk-off sentiment and heavy derivatives trading.
Liquidity conditions have also weakened. Dogecoin’s market depth declined from roughly $12 million at the start of January 2026 to about $10 million in early February, a drop that can amplify price swings during turbulent periods.
Traders are closely watching key technical levels. A break below $0.07 could open the door to further downside toward $0.05, while a sustained move above the $0.106–$0.110 range may be needed to confirm a recovery. Overall, Dogecoin’s recent price action and whale activity point to ongoing uncertainty, with volatility likely to persist in the near term.
Market commentator Jim Cramer claimed on CNBC that the Trump administration plans to purchase Bitcoin for a proposed U.S. Strategic Reserve amid ongoing market volatility.
Summary
- Cramer claimed the Trump administration may buy Bitcoin for a proposed U.S. Strategic Reserve, reportedly targeting a $60,000 entry price amid recent market volatility.
- The U.S. government currently holds 328,372 BTC (over $23 billion), with executive orders specifying that reserves come from asset forfeitures and cannot be sold; Treasury officials say public funds cannot be used to buy crypto.
- Interest in a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is rising, with Polymarket placing the probability of establishment before 2027 at 31%, while BTC trades around $71,133, up 3% over the past 24 hours.
“I heard at $60,000 the President is gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve,” Cramer said on Friday’s Squawk on the Street segment.
The remark coincided with a sharp Bitcoin sell-off earlier in the week, which saw BTC briefly approach $60,000 before rebounding above $70,000. If the purchase occurs at the cited price, Bitcoin would need to decline more than 15% for the administration to execute it.
What the data shows
According to Arkham data, the U.S. government currently holds 328,372 BTC, valued at over $23 billion, with no recent changes in holdings. An executive order from March 2025 specifies that BTC for the reserve would come from criminal and civil asset forfeitures, and deposits cannot be sold.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stressed that the federal government has no legal authority to bail out Bitcoin or compel banks to purchase it, reinforcing that public funds cannot be used to acquire cryptocurrency assets.
Despite these legal constraints, interest in a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve appears to be growing. Polymarket data shows the probability of such a reserve being officially established before 2027 has risen to 31%, up from 23% in early January.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $71,133.74, up roughly 3% over 24 hours, reflecting ongoing market volatility and investor attention on potential government involvement.
“RIP to the bags still being held. Touch some grass, seriously,” the analyst said.
Pi Network’s PI has been on a massive price decline over the past several months, causing many community members to lose patience and call the project a scam.
Meanwhile, the bearish conditions of the broader crypto market and some other important factors signal that the asset could experience a further downfall in the near future.
‘Not a Healthy Correction’
It seems rather absurd that PI was trading at around $3 nearly a year ago, given its current valuation. Last week, the token slipped to a new all-time low of approximately $0.13, and as of press time, it is worth roughly $0.14, representing a staggering 95% collapse from the historical peak.
According to X user pinetworkmembers, the decline is not “a healthy correction,” but a market pricing of the biggest issues of the controversial project behind the cryptocurrency:
“That’s not a healthy correction, that’s the market finally pricing in the obvious: no functioning mainnet after years of promises, no real-world utility beyond ‘keep the app open’, and a whole lot of mobile mining theater.”
They claimed that at first PI was sold as “revolutionary,” but eventually ended up appearing like “the longest-running pyramid scheme dressed up as Web3 empowerment for hopeful retirees and late-night scrollers.”
They opined that Pi Network users (known as Pioneers) should admit that the experiment failed and redirect their energy toward something more productive that can actually bring them profit.
“RIP to the bags still being held. Touch some grass, seriously,” the X user concluded.
This isn’t the first time the project has become the subject of criticism. Earlier this month, Pi Network’s Core Team celebrated the so-called “Moderator Appreciation Day.” The event aimed to acknowledge moderators and praise their role in building and supporting the community.
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The statement, however, triggered significant backlash, as many members argued that the project should focus on more pressing issues, such as expediting the verification process and related tasks.
What Lies Ahead?
Several concerning factors, including the upcoming token unlocks, suggest PI’s price could fall further in the short term. Data shows that nearly 250 million coins will be released over the next 30 days, resulting in an average daily unlock of more than 8.3 million.
February 13 is expected to be the record day, when 23.6 million PI will be freed up. While the development doesn’t guarantee an additional price collapse, it can be considered bearish because it increases the selling pressure.
On the other hand, PI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that a rebound could also be on the horizon. The technical analysis tool measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and helps traders identify potential reversal points. It varies from 0 to 100, and ratios below 30 indicate that PI has entered oversold territory and may be due for a resurgence. According to RSI Hunter, the RSI currently stands at around 35.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum led a broad rally in risk assets as traders priced in cooling inflation and firmer macro signals, but the rebound for Ether came with a caveat: derivatives markets remained largely cautious. The on-chain picture shows a liquidity landscape that is still hunting for clear catalysts, even as Ether clears key price resistances. In short, a positive price move does not yet translate into a confident shift in momentum, with traders continuing to weigh the risk of another leg lower as macro headlines evolve.
Key takeaways
- Ethereum maintains dominance in total value locked (TVL), but scrutiny of layer-2 scaling and its subsidy model persists as investors assess long-term efficiency.
- Ether’s inflation metric rose to ~0.8% over the last 30 days as on-chain activity cooled, while macro concerns kept derivatives in a cautious, risk-off stance.
- ETH 2‑month futures traded at roughly a 3% premium to spot, below the 5% neutral threshold, signaling tepid optimism from Ether traders despite the rally.
- Year-to-date, Ether has underperformed the broader crypto market by about 9%, raising questions about where capital is flowing and how much is staying tethered to Ethereum’s core ecosystem.
- Deposits on the Ethereum base layer account for roughly 58% of the entire blockchain industry; including Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, that figure rises to about 65%. The largest DApp on the Ethereum base layer holds more than $23 billion in TVL, underscoring Ethereum’s ongoing scale advantage over competitors like Solana, where the top DApp’s TVL remains far smaller.
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Positive. Ether reclaimed the $2,100 level as the broader market rose, but the bounce remains tentative amid persistent risk-off signals in the derivatives space.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The current price recovery lacks clear, durable conviction from buyers, and any sustained advance will depend on a shift in risk appetite and improved on-chain activity.
Market context: The price move comes within a broader environment of liquidity fluctuations and macro uncertainty, where flows into crypto often track traditional risk indicators and regulatory chatter as much as technical levels.
Why it matters
The Ethereum ecosystem remains the cornerstone of DeFi and NFT activity, with the base layer continuing to attract the majority of on-chain value. Even as the chain holds a commanding TVL lead, the narrative around layer-2 solutions—how they decentralize, secure, and scale applications—has grown more nuanced. Ethereum’s current stance reflects a tension between the heavy usage that has historically fueled its dynamics and the structural questions about how best to sustain growth without compromising security or centralizing risk through bridges or trusted constructs.
Data from ultrasound.money shows Ether’s supply growth accelerating to about 0.8% on an annualized basis over the last month, a sign that the burn dynamics intended to counter inflation are not as punitive as hoped when network demand softens. The built-in burn mechanism relies on base-layer data processing activity; when that activity wanes, the net effect can be a modest supply expansion, tempering the deflationary narrative some bulls have pushed. This dynamic aligns with the observed softness in on-chain activity and the tepid appetite in the derivatives market, where a 3% premium for 2‑month Ether futures sits below the 5% neutral threshold—an indication that traders are not aggressively pricing in rapid upside (Laevitas data: laevitas.ch).
On the fundamental side, the ladder of TVL metrics continues to illustrate Ethereum’s centrality. The Ethereum base layer alone accounts for the majority of blockchain deposits, while including the leading layer-2 ecosystems—Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism—pushes the share to well above two-thirds of industry activity. In contrast, Solana’s leading DApp sits far behind, a reminder that capital has not yet pursued a broad shift away from Ethereum despite competition. This shape of the market matters for developers evaluating where to build and for investors weighing the durability of Ethereum’s moat in a multi-chain era.
The pace of adoption in layer-2 networks is another focal point. Vitalik Buterin has argued that the L2 path to decentralization has proven more challenging than originally envisioned, given reliance on multisig-controlled bridges and security trade-offs. In interviews and analyses, he has signaled a pivot toward base-layer scalability while acknowledging that privacy-focused features and application-specific designs on L2s will continue to influence capital allocation patterns. The inherent tension between scalability and security is central to investors’ risk calculus as they parse long-term returns from layer-1 vs. layer-2 deployments. For context, related discussions emphasize the difference between “real DeFi” and centralized yield constructs, underscoring how policy choices and technology design shape the sustainable value proposition of Ethereum’s ecosystem (Vitalik Buterin commentary: Ethereum scaling pivot).
Another facet of the narrative is the relationship between price performance and liquidity provision. Ether’s price recovery has not yet translated into a broad-based rally in the derivatives market, where risk-off sentiment remains visible in pricing and open interest. While the disappearance of a rapid down-leg is a relief for holders, the absence of robust upside pressure suggests traders remain cautious, watching macro data and regulatory signals for any signs that capital will pivot back toward higher-yield opportunities. In this context, the chart of Ether against the overall crypto capitalization illustrates a persistent lag, with Ether’s performance this year lagging the broader market by roughly 9% as capital rotates among competing use cases and networks (TradingView: ETH/USD vs. total crypto capitalization).
Finally, the market’s attention remains split between long-term fundamental deployments and near-term price movements. The burn mechanism’s trajectory depends on on-chain activity, while the composition of TVL—especially the share captured by L2s—will influence how investors perceive Ethereum’s ability to sustain network effects. The ongoing debate about L2 security, decentralization, and throughput feeds into price dynamics and shapes the risk-reward calculus for traders and developers alike. As developers experiment with privacy-focused features and bespoke, application-specific layer designs, Ethereum’s scale narrative remains central to the crypto economy’s evolution, even as other chains strive to carve out niche advantages.
What to watch next
- Monitor Ether’s price action around the $2,200 area and whether buying pressure gains enough momentum to sustain a breakout.
- Track Vitalik Buterin’s public comments and any policy shifts from major layer-2 projects regarding decentralization and security architecture.
- Observe on-chain activity metrics and the burn rate versus supply growth using ultrasound.money data to gauge deflationary pressure.
- Watch DefiLlama for TVL movements between the Ethereum base layer and its Layer-2 ecosystem to assess flow shifts across the ecosystem.
- Keep an eye on macro indicators and central bank signals that influence liquidity and risk sentiment, as these ultimately drive derivative pricing and capital allocation.
Sources & verification
- ETH price levels and movement relative to the $2,150 threshold and recovery to $2,100+ zones.
- 2-month Ether futures annualized premium data from Laevitas as a gauge of derivatives sentiment.
- ETH supply growth metrics (0.8% annualized over the last 30 days) from ultrasound.money.
- TVL breakdowns and main chain vs. Layer-2 deposits from DefiLlama data.
- Official commentary by Vitalik Buterin on Layer-2 decentralization and the burn mechanism, including linked analyses.
What the numbers say about the market today
Market breadth has improved modestly as Ether reclaims price levels, yet the path to a sustainable rally remains uncertain. The interplay between layer-2 subsidies, base-layer scalability, and on-chain activity will continue to shape price dynamics and capital flows. Investors are watching for signals that derivatives markets finally align with price action, suggesting a broader willingness to take on risk. Until then, Ether’s leadership in TVL and ongoing L2 development will be essential barometers for the health and direction of the crypto ecosystem.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin death cross forms on daily charts with moving averages positioned far above current price
- Weekly close below $69K-$72K support could trigger next leg down into deeper correction territory
- Binance withdrawal data shows whale accumulation doubled to 13.3 BTC average since late January
- Price must reclaim $82K then mid-$90Ks to establish bottoming pattern and reverse bearish trend
Bitcoin faces a critical test as price slides into the $69,000 to $72,000 support zone amid mounting bearish technical signals.
A death cross has formed on daily charts while weekly moving averages remain far overhead. Traders warn that a clean weekly close below this range could trigger a deeper correction phase.
The current price action shows weak bounce attempts with consistent rejections at key resistance levels.
Death Cross Formation Signals Bearish Trend Structure
The technical setup has deteriorated significantly as BTC continues its descent from higher levels. Daily charts now display an active death cross with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages positioned miles above current price. This configuration represents a classic bearish trend structure where rallies meet aggressive selling pressure.
Weekly timeframes confirm the concerning technical picture. Price remains trapped below the exponential moving average ribbon with repeated rejection attempts at that level.
Any upward moves are functioning as retests rather than genuine reversals. Trader @DamiDefi emphasized that pumps are getting sold while supports face continuous stress tests.
The $69,000 to $72,000 band now represents the final line of defense. This zone determines whether the market experiences a temporary shakeout or enters a prolonged correction phase. Price behavior at this level will dictate the trajectory for coming weeks and potentially months.
A breakdown below $69,000 on a weekly closing basis would open the next leg down. The accumulation phase would become considerably more painful before any bullish momentum could rebuild.
Historical patterns suggest that losing major support zones often leads to cascading liquidations and accelerated downside movement.
Support Test Occurs Despite Whale Buying Activity
The bearish price action persists even as on-chain data reveals unusual buying patterns. Binance exchange metrics show a significant increase in average withdrawal sizes during the decline.
The 14-day simple moving average of mean outflows has doubled from approximately 6 BTC on January 28 to 13.3 BTC by February 8.
This withdrawal pattern indicates whale and institutional activity at current price levels. Large entities appear to be accumulating Bitcoin around $69,000 despite the technical deterioration.
The average outflow size represents the highest level recorded since November 2024, according to CryptoOnchain data.
However, this accumulation has not yet translated into price stability or reversal. The gap between falling prices and rising withdrawal sizes creates a divergence worth monitoring. Smart money appears to be positioning for longer-term gains while accepting near-term downside risk.
Moving coins off exchanges to cold storage traditionally reduces immediate selling pressure. Yet the current market structure suggests this effect remains insufficient to halt the decline.
Bulls need price to reclaim $82,000 first, then push back into the low-to-mid $90,000s to establish a credible bottoming range. Without holding the $69,000 to $72,000 support zone, those recovery targets become increasingly distant possibilities.
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