“This is the world of fiscal dominance and ultimately will dictate Fed policy. Rates will necessarily need to be kept artificially low and liquidity will need to be provided to help fund the refinancing cycle,” the founders told CoinDesk. “The ‘debasement’ trade was a popular narrative last year but has gone quiet. Yet it’s set to go into overdrive!,” the founders told CoinDesk.

Several observers have raised the alarm over the ballooning debt in recent months.

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok warned that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio of over 120% means there is little room to spend more money should a recession arrive. Moreover, the Fed can’t cut interest rates as aggressively as during previous recessions because that would add to inflation and, more importantly, reduce the yield on bonds. The government needs to issue more bonds to fund deficits and those need to offer a high return to draw demand.

“The U.S. has never entered a recession with this little fiscal buffer,” he wrote in a blog post in May.

All this means that if a recession occurs, the pain could be longer-lasting and may trigger demand for assets that fall largely outside of the financial system, such as BTC and cryptocurrencies. That said, since its inception in 2010, BTC has moved largely like a tech stock and not a haven investment.

The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin BTC$65,268.02 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have logged their first three-week inflows streak since early May.

These funds attracted $33.79 million in the week ended July 24. That figure would have been much bigger had it not been for net outflows of around $225.2 million and $240.1 million on July 23 and 24 respectively, according to data tracked by SoSoValue.

These late-week outflows also make the total weekly figure the smallest compared to the previous two weeks of inflows of $197 million and $75.67 million.

The story, therefore, is that institutional demand has returned, but it’s anemic and not as powerful as typically observed during bull runs.

“After May and June’s heavy outflows, July’s repair phase has brought relief, but institutional demand is still cautious,” crypto analytics firm BRN said in a email to CoinDesk.

Bitcoin rallied to a July high of over $66,500 on the Tuesday, before retreating below $64,000 by the end of the week, amid profit-taking and weak action in the stock market with the Nasdaq 100 pulled down by chipmaker stocks, a bellwether for the AI industry.

The dollar heads into a pivotal week trading near 101.80, just off a 15-month high, with the Fed’s July 29 meeting standing as the clear focal point. Markets currently price roughly a 65% chance of a hold, though renewed Middle East escalation has kept a hike back on the table for later this year. Energy remains the wildcard: the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and blockades affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes have pushed oil higher, reigniting inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed’s messaging.

Adding to the uncertainty, private-sector hiring has slowed for a fourth straight week according to ADP data, even as jobless claims fell to a two-month low, painting a genuinely mixed labor picture. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Congressional testimony offered little directional clarity, reaffirming a commitment to price stability without tipping the committee’s hand.

With the ECB decision now behind markets and flash PMI data already digested, all eyes turn to Wednesday’s Fed decision as the week’s true catalyst, one capable of resolving—or extending—the dollar’s recent indecision.

Technical Analysis of the DXY

The coming week carries real technical weight, with the DXY caught in a hotly contested zone between 100.00 and 102.00. The Fed’s rate decision, and the volatility it brings, could well define the dollar’s path over the near to medium term.

Bullish Scenario

After a rough start to 2026, the DXY rebounded sharply from January’s 96-97 support, gaining roughly 6% since then. Having recently broken and held above the psychological 100.00 level, price now sits supported by both an ascending trendline and the 50-period EMA. A confirmed break above 102.00 would open the path toward 103-104, and eventually 106-107.

Bearish Scenario

The index is currently struggling at the 102.00 resistance. A rejection here, breaking the ascending trendline while respecting the longer-term descending trendline from 2025’s highs, would send price back to retest the critical 100.00 zone—and potentially, on a deeper break, all the way back to the 96-97 support.

With the Fed’s decision now just days away, the dollar finds itself standing exactly where it needs to: at the edge of a decision. Whether the DXY breaks free toward fresh highs or slips back into its earlier struggles, this week’s outcome won’t just move the greenback—it will set the tone for every asset priced against it heading into autumn.

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has pushed back on the idea that the rise of artificial intelligence will reduce the relevance of crypto. In a post on X on Sunday, Armstrong argued that “AI being a megatrend” does not replace crypto—if anything, it increases the need for programmable financial rails that can be used by autonomous software.

Armstrong framed his argument around “agentic finance,” describing Coinbase’s Base network alongside USDC and the company’s x402 payment protocol as key components for machine-to-machine payments. His comments also arrive as the broader crypto industry increasingly markets blockchain networks as payment infrastructure for AI agents.

Key takeaways

• Armstrong says AI agents will drive demand for programmable money, positioning crypto as more—not less—relevant.
• Coinbase’s agentic payments stack centers on Base, USDC, and x402, built for automated stablecoin transfers between applications.
• Chainalysis reported in June that agentic payments on Base via x402 surpassed 100 million transactions within about nine months of tracked activity.
• Regulators and traditional payment systems are still designed around human accounts, while x402 targets payment flows that can be triggered automatically.

Armstrong’s case: AI needs programmable payments

Armstrong’s argument is rooted in how autonomous systems are expected to operate. If AI agents can act independently—making purchases, paying for data, or settling for APIs—then they require a payment mechanism that software can initiate without relying on traditional banking checkout steps.

“AI being a megatrend takes nothing away from crypto,” Armstrong wrote on X, adding that agentic systems will instead create demand for programmable money. The underlying pitch is that blockchain-based payments are better suited to low-friction, automated interactions than systems that assume a human user completes each transaction.

How Base, x402, and USDC fit together

Armstrong’s “AiFi” framing points to a specific infrastructure stack rather than a broad concept. Base launched in 2023 as an Ethereum layer-2 network intended to improve the speed and cost of building onchain applications, with the design aimed at general-purpose use rather than solely AI payments.

In 2025, Coinbase introduced x402, a payment protocol built around the HTTP “402 Payment Required” concept. As Coinbase describes it, x402 enables automated stablecoin payments between software applications, allowing one system to pay another—such as for digital resources—without traditional account-based workflows. In practice, the protocol is intended to make it easier for autonomous agents to complete payments as part of a software interaction.

USDC is one of the stablecoins used within this ecosystem. Launched in 2018 by Circle and supported by the Coinbase-backed Centre Consortium, USDC provides the dollar-pegged unit that enables consistent value transfer for automated payments. Together, Base (execution environment), x402 (payment protocol), and USDC (payment asset) form the core of Coinbase’s current approach to agentic payments.

What Chainalysis measured on Base’s agentic payment flows

Beyond Coinbase’s product narrative, third-party analytics have begun to quantify activity. In a June report, Chainalysis said agentic payments on Base using x402 surpassed 100 million transactions within roughly nine months of activity.

According to Chainalysis, it identified agentic payment activity by tracking x402-related payment flows onchain. The firm stated that transactions worth at least $1 represented 95% of total transferred value, suggesting that the measured activity was not just tiny test transfers.

Chainalysis also reported behavioral differences between agentic payment wallets and the average Base user. It said agentic wallets were typically newer, tended to hold more asset types, and carried smaller balances than the broader user base.

Cointelegraph asked Chainalysis for updated x402 activity figures and additional details on how its methodology works, but the firm had not responded by publication time.

Separately, Cointelegraph had previously noted that agentic payment activity on Base topped 100 million transactions in June, citing the same kind of measurement that Chainalysis described.

Earnings and market attention on Coinbase’s infrastructure strategy

Armstrong’s push for “agentic finance” comes as Coinbase prepares to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday. Yahoo Finance data shows analysts’ average expectations for revenue of $1.29 billion, with sales projected to decline 13.8% compared to the same period last year. Earnings per share are expected to be flat.

While the earnings forecast does not directly measure Base or x402 usage, the timing matters: Coinbase is attempting to position its networks and payment rails as foundational plumbing for a new wave of automated transactions. For investors and builders, the key question is whether agentic payment volumes translate into sustained demand for onchain infrastructure—particularly if more AI-driven services embed payment logic as part of normal operation.

What to watch next is how quickly “agentic” payment flows evolve beyond early activity: updated figures from Chainalysis on x402 usage, whether more stablecoin-based automation moves from experimentation to production, and how clearly Coinbase can connect its infrastructure push to broader business performance. As AI agent adoption grows, the debate is likely to shift from whether crypto is “relevant” to whether crypto-based rails are practical enough to become the default mechanism for machine-initiated payments.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has pushed back on the idea that artificial intelligence will displace crypto, arguing that “agentic” AI—software systems that initiate actions—will increase demand for programmable, crypto-based payments. In a post on X, Armstrong framed AI agents as a new class of economic actors that will need rails and settlement mechanisms beyond traditional banking.

Armstrong pointed to Coinbase’s Base network, USDC, and its x402 payment protocol as key infrastructure for autonomous machine-to-machine payments. His comments follow mounting industry interest in using blockchain networks as the payments layer for AI agents, including coverage that agentic payment activity on Base surpassed 100 million transactions in June.

Key takeaways

• Armstrong argues AI agents will need programmable money, not conventional bank checkout rails, strengthening crypto’s role in finance.
• Coinbase’s “AiFi” framing ties Base (scalability), USDC (stable settlement), and x402 (automated payment flows) into a single payment stack.
• Chainalysis reported that x402-based agentic payments on Base crossed 100 million transactions in roughly nine months of tracked activity.
• Updated methodology and figures were requested, but Chainalysis had not responded by publication time, leaving some measurement details unconfirmed.

Armstrong’s “AI doesn’t replace crypto” message

Armstrong’s argument is essentially about incentives and infrastructure. Rather than treating AI as a competitor to blockchain, he claims AI’s “megatrend” effect will amplify demand for financial services that can be triggered automatically and executed reliably by software.

On X, Armstrong linked this to the concept of agentic finance, or AiFi—the idea that AI agents will participate in the digital economy by initiating transactions and accessing services without human intervention. In that world, he suggested, payments need to be programmable and accessible to autonomous systems, which he contrasted with traditional banking rails designed around accounts and manual authorization.

Coinbase’s AiFi stack: Base, x402 and USDC

Coinbase’s approach centers on three building blocks: Base as the underlying network, x402 as a payment protocol for autonomous software payments, and USDC as the dollar-pegged stablecoin used for settlement.

Base was launched in 2023 as an Ethereum layer-2 network aimed at making onchain applications faster and cheaper to use. Coinbase positioned Base as general-purpose blockchain infrastructure rather than a network specifically engineered for AI payments.

Two years later, Coinbase introduced x402, a payment protocol built around the HTTP “402 Payment Required” standard. The intent is to enable automated stablecoin payments between software applications—allowing agents and other autonomous systems to pay for digital resources like APIs or data without relying on traditional account-driven checkout flows.

USDC, launched in 2018 by Circle and the Coinbase-backed Centre Consortium, is one of the assets used for x402 payments. In the AiFi framing, USDC provides the stable value layer while x402 standardizes how software applications request payment and complete transfers.

Taken together, Base + x402 + USDC are designed to make it easier for autonomous systems to interact economically onchain—an architecture Armstrong appears to believe will be increasingly necessary as AI agents become more active in commerce, data access, and service provisioning.

What Chainalysis measured on Base

Beyond Coinbase’s vision, the debate has increasingly moved to onchain activity—especially whether “agentic payments” are showing up in measurable transaction patterns. In a June report, Chainalysis said agentic payments on Base using x402 surpassed 100 million transactions within roughly nine months of activity.

Chainalysis described its measurement approach as identifying x402-related payment flows onchain. It also noted that transactions worth at least $1 accounted for 95% of total value transferred, indicating that the majority of transferred economic value was not concentrated solely in very small transfers.

The analytics firm further reported behavioral differences between agentic participants and typical Base users: it said agentic payment wallets were generally newer, held more asset types, and maintained smaller balances on average than Base users in general.

Cointelegraph asked Chainalysis for updated x402 activity figures and more details about its tracking methodology, but the firm had not responded by the time of publication. That leaves a gap for readers who want the latest numbers and confirmation of how the methodology may evolve as activity scales.

Earnings calendar adds context for the timing

Armstrong’s push comes as Coinbase prepares to report second quarter earnings on Thursday. According to consensus data compiled by Yahoo Finance, analysts expect revenue of $1.29 billion and estimate sales to fall 13.8% year over year, with earnings per share projected to be flat.

While the earnings outlook is separate from the AiFi debate, it matters for investors because it frames how quickly infrastructure narratives may translate into business momentum. If activity around agentic payments continues to expand—especially in ways that attract developers and integrate stablecoin payments—Coinbase may view it as an additional growth lane on top of broader onchain adoption.

For now, the key question is whether agentic payment activity remains a measurable trend as adoption broadens beyond early x402 use cases. Readers should watch for fresh Chainalysis updates, more clarity on how “agentic” behavior is classified onchain, and whether Coinbase’s AiFi push leads to sustained developer and payment integrations on Base.