Crypto World
NY, IL Ban State Employees From Prediction Markets
New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order barring state employees from participating in prediction-market betting, adding a formal layer of ethics rules to a sector that has seen rapid growth and rising scrutiny. The move follows a similar order issued by Illinois earlier in the week and underscores a broader policy shift as authorities weigh the implications of insider information and market manipulation in event-based markets.
Hochul framed the policy as a defense of public integrity, stating that “getting rich by betting on inside information is corruption, plain and simple.” The executive order also criticizes the federal policy environment for permitting an “ethical Wild West” around prediction markets without meaningful standards to curb insider trading. The directive makes clear that violations may lead to dismissal and could invite law enforcement action, while explicitly prohibiting state employees and officers from assisting others in profiting on confidential information through prediction markets.
Illinois moved in a parallel direction, with Governor JB Pritzker issuing an executive order that expands state ethics oversight in response to the rapid expansion of online prediction markets and event-based betting contracts. A formal statement from Illinois framed the action as a reinforcement of transparent governance and a preventative measure against insider trading as these platforms gain scale and reach across public life. The two states’ actions reflect a growing concern among policymakers that prediction markets, while useful for information aggregation, can become vectors for illicit trading if not properly restricted.
The movement comes amid mounting attention on how prediction markets operate when sensitive information may influence outcomes such as geopolitical events, military actions, or major policy decisions. Hochul cited specific cases that have drawn scrutiny over potential insider trades involving U.S. military action, pointing to instances where confidential information appeared to intersect with trading activity. These references illustrate why state-level ethics rules are becoming a focal point for both compliance programs in public administration and the private platforms that host these markets.
Key takeaways
- State-level ban on official participation: New York’s executive order prohibits state employees from engaging in prediction-market betting and signals a broader intent to curb conflicts of interest within public service.
- Parallel action in Illinois: Illinois issued a similar executive order, reinforcing ongoing regulatory attention to insider trading risks in prediction markets and setting a precedent for other states.
- Rapid market growth with regulatory risk: Prediction markets have seen sustained growth in volume, with March activity reaching a record level, highlighting the tension between information efficiency and insider-trading risk. According to Cointelegraph, monthly volumes climbed to $23.6 billion in March as markets expanded across sports, elections, and business outcomes.
- Notable enforcement activity: High-profile cases and platform actions illustrate tightening enforcement around insider trading, including actions involving traders and platform operators as scrutiny intensifies.
- Platform regulatory battles: Kalshi faces ongoing regulatory friction in multiple states, including cease-and-desist actions and court proceedings, with potential implications for how event-based contracts are treated under state gaming and wagering laws.
Insider trading concerns and enforcement dynamics in prediction markets
The discourse around prediction markets has increasingly moved from theoretical debates about market efficiency to concrete enforcement concerns. Hochul’s executive order anchors that shift in law, linking ethics violations with tangible consequences for public service employees. The references to suspected insider trading tied to U.S. military actions highlight the practical stakes when confidential information intersects with trading activity online. While platforms argue that they operate within a framework designed to protect against misuse, regulators have repeatedly signaled that gaps in oversight could undermine public trust and market integrity.
Market participants have noted that prediction markets often cover high-stakes events—ranging from geopolitical developments to corporate earnings—creating incentives for non-public information to leak into trading activity. In response, platform operators have pursued their own oversight measures. For example, reports on enforcement actions against participants who wager on personal candidacies or other sensitive events illustrate that private platforms are increasingly expected to police and sanction behavior that may hamper fair markets. The broader takeaway for analysts and compliance teams is that estimation of risk now must include a robust review of how information flows are managed and how enforcement mechanisms align with public ethics obligations.
Beyond individual cases, the regulatory zeitgeist is pressing for stronger framework alignment across jurisdictions. The mounting attention from state governments to predict-market governance dovetails with ongoing debates about how event-based derivatives should be regulated, including where they fit within general securities, gaming, or consumer-protection laws. While the federal approach to prediction markets remains unsettled, state-level actions are effectively shaping the practical operating environment for platforms and participants alike. For institutions, this translates into tighter internal controls, enhanced KYC/AML considerations, and a heightened focus on conflicts-of-interest policies when dealing with internal or confidential information that could influence trading decisions.
Kalshi, Nevada, and New York: regulatory friction products a broader compliance map
The regulatory landscape for prediction-market platforms has become a focal point in several states. The Kalshi platform, which operates on event-based contracts, has faced a series of regulatory challenges as states seek to determine whether such contracts constitute illegal gambling or require separate licensing regimes. In New York, the State Gaming Commission issued a cease-and-desist order related to Kalshi’s unlicensed mobile wagering activities within the state, highlighting the complexities of regulating digital prediction markets within traditional gaming frameworks. Separately, a lower court in Nevada temporarily blocked Kalshi from operating in the state, with regulators arguing that the contracts facilitated unlicensed gambling. The outcomes of these actions could have far-reaching implications for how prediction markets are treated under state licensing regimes and gaming laws.
Industry observers note that the regulatory tension surrounding Kalshi underscores a broader question about the status of prediction-market platforms in the U.S. If these platforms are deemed to operate as unlicensed gambling venues, they may face a cascade of licensing and enforcement actions across multiple states. Conversely, if authorities reconcile these products under a securities or commodity framework—or carve out a clear regulatory pathway—the sector could experience clearer compliance roadmaps. In public commentary, some industry participants have indicated that the regulatory question could eventually reach the Supreme Court, depending on how lower court rulings align with existing interpretations of gambling, securities, and commodities law. Such a development would carry implications for the permissible boundaries of event-based derivatives and the proper boundaries of government interference in private market activity.
For market participants and compliance teams, these regulatory dynamics call for heightened vigilance around platform governance, trade monitoring, and the handling of non-public information. As enforcement actions proliferate at the state level, firms must reassess internal controls, including the segregation of confidential information, conflict-of-interest disclosures, and the scope of permissible trading for employees and affiliated entities. The evolving precedent could also influence cross-border considerations, as global regulators evaluate whether similar governance models require standardized minimum standards or a more harmonized approach to event-based contracts and their financial or social risks.
Regulatory policy in a broader policy and market-structure context
While the U.S. state-level actions form a syndicate of ethics and compliance measures, observers are increasingly aligning these moves with broader policy debates. The rapid growth of prediction markets—driven by platforms that cover sports outcomes, elections, and business events—has intensified scrutiny of how these markets integrate with traditional financial and gaming regulatory regimes. In parallel, global policy evolution, including frameworks like the European Union’s MiCA, continues to shape how mainstream crypto-asset markets and related derivatives are governed. Although MiCA focuses primarily on crypto assets and their regulatory treatment, its approach to licensing, transparency, and cross-border activity offers a useful reference point for institutions navigating multi-jurisdictional compliance in rapidly evolving financial technologies. The comparative lens underscores the importance of robust, auditable governance structures, clear definitions of permissible activities, and consistent enforcement signals to support institutional adoption and compliance resilience.
For corporate counsel, risk managers, and financial investigators, the current trajectory suggests a dual emphasis: strengthening internal ethics regimes within public bodies and ensuring external platforms implement clear, enforceable standards that deter insider trading and manipulation. The thread tying these developments together is a clear move toward explicit governance of information flows, robust monitoring for suspicious activity, and a defined path for regulatory action when rules are bent or broken. This alignment is essential not only for market integrity but also for preserving trust among participants, investors, and the public sector that depends on orderly, predictable oversight of these innovative markets.
In sum, the surge in prediction-market activity is meeting a corresponding escalation in regulatory attention. State governments are taking concrete steps to limit conflicts of interest within public service, while enforcement against platform operators and traders intensifies the legal and regulatory risk landscape. As legal challenges unfold and potential Supreme Court consideration looms, market participants should expect continued clarity and continuity in compliance expectations, alongside ongoing innovations in platform governance and risk controls.
Closing perspective: the evolving regulatory framework for prediction markets will shape best practices across governance, monitoring, and cross-border operations. Institutions should monitor not just state actions but the legal ripples that may reach federal policy, court rulings, and potentially international standards as these markets mature.
Crypto World
Bankman-Fried’s FTX sold its Cursor stake for $200,000 in 2023. It would be worth $3 billion today
A 5% stake in AI coding startup Cursor that FTX’s bankruptcy estate sold for $200,000 in April 2023 would be worth about $3 billion today, following SpaceX’s agreement this week to acquire the company at a $60 billion valuation.
SpaceX said Monday it has the right to buy Cursor later this year for $60 billion or to pay $10 billion if the full acquisition does not proceed. The deal is founder Elon Musk’s move to close the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on AI coding tools, an area where he recently said xAI, the Musk-run AI company that merged with SpaceX, is behind competitors.
SpaceX is holding off on immediate acquisition because of its planned initial public offering targeting a $2 trillion valuation, with the $10 billion serving as a breakup fee.
The crypto angle sits in the cap table. In April 2022, Alameda Research, the trading firm founded by Sam Bankman-Fried and run alongside FTX, invested $200,000 in Anysphere, the company that builds Cursor.
That investment bought roughly 5% of the company at a $4 million valuation. One year later FTX had collapsed, Alameda and FTX were in bankruptcy, and the court-appointed estate sold the Cursor stake for the same $200,000 Alameda had paid.
The stake is worth $3 billion at SpaceX’s $60 billion price tag, meaning the gap between what the FTX estate received and what the position would fetch today is roughly a 15,000x return. It was instead realized by whoever bought it from the bankruptcy rather than the creditors the estate was supposed to be maximizing recovery for.
The timing cuts awkwardly for FTX’s bankruptcy administration.
Bankman-Fried, currently serving a 25-year federal sentence, has spent the past year arguing from prison that FTX’s estate destroyed billions in value by liquidating assets too quickly during the bankruptcy, and that customers could have been made more than whole if the process had held positions instead of selling them into what turned out to be the bottom of crypto prices.
In February, he shared a projection suggesting FTX’s net asset value would have reached $78 billion if the estate had held assets through the subsequent recovery rather than selling in 2023 and 2024.
Cursor launched its AI coding product in early 2023, the same year the estate sold the stake, and the company’s trajectory from that launch to its current valuation three years later is among the steepest in software startup history.
FTX customers have since been made whole in dollar terms under the bankruptcy’s distribution plan, receiving back their claim values plus interest. What they did not receive is the upside from what those assets became between the bankruptcy filing and now, which in the case of the Cursor stake alone represents about $3 billion of forgone recovery against $200,000 realized.
Bankman-Fried’s parents have publicly advocated for a pardon, appearing on CNN in March arguing that FTX customers were ultimately repaid and that the case against their son should be revisited. The Cursor number is likely to feature prominently in the family’s continued campaign, and in Bankman-Fried’s own letters from prison, as the single clearest example of the kind of value he claims the estate destroyed through forced selling.
Ether futures on Binance have surged to a near two-month high as aggressive buyers stepped into the market over the past week. The 24-hour cumulative net taker volume climbed to about $5.5 billion, rising roughly 72% from about $3.2 billion earlier in the month, according to data tracked by CryptoQuant. The move aligns with a broader technical setup that keeps a critical liquidity zone in focus for ETH, with traders watching a potential breakout beyond the mid-$2,400s toward a $2,475–$2,634 corridor if buy-side pressure remains sustained and supply-side resistance eases.
CryptoQuant data show the 30-day average of net taker volume has remained positive since March 1, a pattern last seen in July 2022. That sustained buying cadence, alongside the growing futures activity, paints a picture of continued demand from participants rather than a fleeting bounce. Amr Taha, a market analyst cited in CryptoQuant’s quicktake, noted that spikes in buying near local highs often signal stronger conviction, suggesting buyers may be in control of the near-term price direction as momentum builds.
Key takeaways
- Binance ETH futures net taker volume hits about $5.5 billion in 24 hours, up 72% from earlier this month, indicating sustained buyer dominance.
- The 30-day net taker-volume average has been positive since March 1, reaching levels not seen since July 2022.
- ETH faces a key resistance around $2,400; a clean break could unlock the $2,475–$2,634 zone where a daily fair-value gap sits, created during February’s sell-off.
- The price is attempting to reclaim the 100-day EMA, a sign that the uptrend could gain traction; the 200-day EMA sits near the upper end of the imbalance zone around $2,634, aligning with liquidity considerations.
- Derivatives signals show futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) approaching $12.6 billion, with funding rates near neutral, suggesting leverage has not expanded aggressively alongside price.
Buy-side momentum and the path through the liquidity cloud
The immediate narrative around Ether’s price action is closely tied to the strength of daily demand captured in the futures market. The $5.5 billion 24-hour net taker volume on Binance represents a significant tilt toward buyers rather than sellers, reinforcing the sense that market participants are willing to chase higher prices rather than step back at the first sign of supply. This level of activity, when viewed against the 30-day positive readings, points to a broader conviction among traders that ETH can sustain upside momentum beyond the current consolidation range.
From a market structure standpoint, the $2,400 barrier has proved a stubborn but not unbreakable ceiling. The price has tested this level three times since early February, with each rejection thinning the density of overhead sell orders. A decisive move above $2,400 would shift attention to the next liquidity-rich zone between roughly $2,475 and $2,634. That corridor hosts a daily fair-value gap left behind by a February sell-off, an area where price can snap back quickly if bid-side liquidity improves and sell orders are absorbed efficiently.
Technical watchers are keeping an eye on trend-following indicators as well. Ether’s attempt to reclaim the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is viewed as a potential sign of trend continuation, provided the rally can sustain above this benchmark. Conversely, the 200-day EMA sits near the upper boundary of the current imbalance zone, implying that any sustained move into the higher end of the range would converge with overs supply and liquidity considerations. The interplay between EMA dynamics and the liquidity gap helps explain why even a modest breakout could accelerate through the $2,400 hurdle if buyers remain persistent.
Derivatives signals: cautious optimism amid balanced leverage
Beyond spot and futures price activity, the derivatives landscape paints a nuanced picture of risk and reward. The futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) has been climbing toward $12.6 billion, signaling ongoing buying pressure in the disciplined posture of the market. Yet funding rates have remained near neutral, suggesting that while demand exists, leverage has not surged in lockstep with price gains. In practical terms, this balance means the near-term upside might hinge on continued bid activity rather than an aggressive expansion of borrowed exposure.
Taken together, the data imply a near-term liquidity cluster around the $2,475–$2,634 zone remains the critical hurdle for ETH. Clearing this band would not only reflect a shift in market sentiment but also provide a clearer pathway for a more durable rally, as new orders fill on the back of rising conviction and improved liquidity depth. For traders, the key question is whether current buyers can sustain enough pressure to overwhelm fresh supply that tends to cluster near resistance zones, especially given the neutral stand of funding costs.
Overall, the current setup suggests a moment of thoughtful optimism rather than exuberant hype. The confluence of rising taker-volume, persistent positive net inflows in the 30-day window, and a technical chart that hints at a liquidity-driven breakout offers a plausible path for ETH in the near term. Investors will want to monitor whether the $2,400 barrier is decisively crossed and whether the liquidity gap in the $2,475–$2,634 range can be absorbed with limited downside risk.
Readers should watch how the price actions unfold around the key resistance zone and the related liquidity clusters in the coming sessions, as a sustained move beyond $2,400 would set the stage for a more pronounced leg higher—provided market participants sustain the current level of demand without a sharp pullback in leverage or a shift in macro risk sentiment.
TLDR:
- Pornhub replaced USDT with USDC for creator payouts, citing better reliability and MiCA regulatory compliance.
- The switch ends Pornhub’s infrastructure partnership with Justin Sun’s TronLink wallet established back in 2020.
- Drift Protocol took the opposite route, moving from USDC to USDT following a $127.5M Tether-backed bailout.
- USDC’s MiCA-compliant status is driving adoption on platforms operating within regulated financial environments.
USDC has officially replaced USDT as the preferred stablecoin for creator payouts on Pornhub. The world’s largest adult website confirmed the change through an email sent to its content creators.
The switch follows years of relying on Tether after PayPal exited the platform in 2020. Pornhub cited payment reliability and regulatory compliance as its primary reasons for adopting Circle’s stablecoin.
The move also ends the platform’s infrastructure partnership with Justin Sun’s TronLink wallet.
Pornhub Cites MiCA Compliance in the USDC Transition
The email sent to creators described USDC as a “fully-backed, MiCA-compliant and regulated stablecoin.” Pornhub added that it provides “a more secure option for your earnings” compared to USDT.
The platform also stated that USDC “is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar.” It further noted that it “works just like USDT on the ERC-20 network.”
OnlyFans content creator Gracie Hartie shared a screenshot of the email on social media. A Japanese trader also confirmed receiving the same communication from Pornhub.
The email specifically stated the change was aimed at making payouts “more reliable” for creators. The broad circulation of the message confirmed the policy shift applied across multiple regions.
Pornhub’s model program page no longer lists USDT as an available payout method. In its place, the page now shows USDC alongside Paxum, Verge, and Cosmo.
The removal of USDT from the payout list marks a complete and deliberate transition. Creators are expected to update their wallet information to reflect the change.
Pornhub adopted USDT back in 2020 after PayPal severed ties with the platform. The company stated at the time, “Since PayPal’s decision to stop payouts to thousands of Models two months ago, we’ve been hustling to…offer you more options.”
That USDT infrastructure was supported through a partnership with Justin Sun’s TronLink wallet. That partnership no longer appears anywhere on Pornhub’s model program page.
USDT and USDC Continue to Compete Across Different Platforms
While Pornhub moved to USDC, a separate development saw USDT gaining ground in another ecosystem. Earlier this month, Tether stepped in to support the hacked Drift Protocol with a $127.5 million bailout.
The Solana-based platform had been drained of approximately $285 million by attackers. North Korean-linked hackers were suspected of compromising a multisig wallet to execute the breach.
As part of the bailout deal, Drift Protocol agreed to transition its settlement asset from USDC to USDT. This effectively reversed the stablecoin preference within that ecosystem.
The back-and-forth between the two stablecoins reflects an ongoing rivalry in the crypto market. Each major platform event appears to shift institutional preference in a new direction.
These moves by both Pornhub and Drift show how stablecoin adoption continues to shift across platforms. USDC’s standing under MiCA gives it an advantage in compliance-focused environments.
USDT, however, retains dominance in markets where liquidity and speed take priority. The broader competition between the two stablecoins remains very much active.
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FBI used the flaw to extract readable previews of Signal messages from an iPhone’s notification database even after the app was deleted.
Tech giant Apple has fixed a security flaw that had allowed the FBI to access a Signal user’s deleted messages through their phone’s push notification database, despite the app being deleted and messages being set to disappear.
In a security advisory released on Wednesday, Apple said it had fixed a bug that allowed “notifications marked for deletion” to be “unexpectedly retained on the device.”
In an X post on Wednesday, Signal said the update fixed the issue that made a user’s messages retrievable by law enforcement.
“Apple’s advisory confirmed that the bugs that allowed this to happen have been fixed in the latest iOS release,” Signal said.
Signal uses end-to-end encryption to secure messages between its users. The bug is a reminder that messaging encryption may not be enough to keep data protected when using certain devices or operating systems.
FBI found a backdoor to private messages
This security flaw was first highlighted by independent technology news website 404 Media, which reported on April 9 that documents recently unsealed in Texas federal court related to an FBI case over an attack on the Prairieland ICE Detention Facility last July.
The court proceedings showed that the FBI was able to forensically extract a defendant’s Signal messages from the iPhone’s notification database, which contained cached, readable previews of incoming Signal messages even after disappearing messages were enabled and the app was deleted.
Related: X rolls out smart cashtags in US, Canada in step toward ‘everything app’
Following the 404 Media report, Signal President Meredith Whittaker called on Apple to quickly fix the issue, noting in an April 14 X post that “notifications for deleted messages shouldn’t remain in any OS notification database.”
Pavel Durov, the co-founder of competing privacy messaging app Telegram, also commented on the report, arguing in an April 14 Telegram post that the only way to truly stay safe was for the app to “force an absence of notification previews” on both ends of a conversation.
Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi
New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed Executive Order 60 on April 22, barring covered state officials and employees from using nonpublic information gained through their jobs to profit or avoid losses in prediction markets.
Summary
- New York and Illinois barred employees from using insider information in prediction market trading activities.
- Both governors said the orders aim to stop corruption as prediction market volumes keep rising.
- State pressure on Kalshi grows as prediction markets face legal and ethical scrutiny nationwide.
The order also bars them from helping other people use such information in the same way. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker signed Executive Order 2026-04 a day earlier.
Moreover, it says no state employee may use nonpublic information from official duties while taking part in prediction markets or event contracts, and they also cannot use that information to help another person trade in those markets. The order took effect immediately after filing.
Hochul and Pritzker frame move as an ethics issue
Hochul said the state was acting to stop public servants from using inside knowledge for personal gain. In the New York announcement, she said, “Getting rich by betting on inside information is corruption, plain and simple,” and also criticized what she called an “ethical Wild West” around prediction markets. New York’s order says violations may lead to dismissal or referral to law enforcement or ethics authorities.
Pritzker used similar language in Illinois. His office said prediction markets have grown into a space where people can bet on real-world events “without any oversight,” and warned that the setup can open the door to insider trading and misuse of confidential information. The Illinois release said the state wanted to strengthen existing ethics rules as these platforms expand.
Additionally, the two executive orders arrive as prediction markets draw more attention from lawmakers, regulators and the courts. New York’s order points to reported trading around military activity, elections and other public events, saying recent news reports raised questions about whether people with access to nonpublic government information may have profited from those markets.
At the same time, industry activity has continued to grow. Market data showed prediction market trading volume in March reached record levels above $20 billion, as trading spread across sports, politics and global events. That growth has added pressure for clearer rules on who can trade and what conduct should trigger enforcement.
State action adds pressure on Kalshi and peers
New York has already taken direct action against Kalshi. Hochul’s office said the New York State Gaming Commission sent the company a cease-and-desist letter in October, alleging it was operating an unlicensed mobile sports wagering platform in the state. The new ethics order adds another layer of state pressure around prediction-market activity.
Kalshi is also fighting state regulators in Nevada. A Nevada judge this month extended a ban blocking the company from offering event contracts in the state without a gaming license. Together, the New York and Illinois orders show that states are still moving to police prediction markets even as federal oversight remains contested.
A crypto market sentiment index has risen to its highest level in over three months on Wednesday after Bitcoin rallied nearly 6% to within striking distance of $80,000.
The Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose 14 points to 46 out of 100, its highest level since Jan. 18 and its largest single-day gain in more than three months.
While still in the “Fear” zone, the current reading marks a sharp rebound from the all-time low of 5 recorded on Feb. 23 after the Trump administration imposed a 15% global tariff, sending Bitcoin (BTC) down to about $63,000.
The crypto sentiment index has been stuck in the Fear zone since Jan. 18. This has come despite continued institutional crypto adoption on Wall Street and a crypto-friendly regulatory agenda in Washington.
However, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan and others have noted that retail traders haven’t shown up in the same numbers as previous market cycles.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index score incorporates metrics such as social media posts and Google search volume related to crypto, which are mostly retail-driven metrics.
Bitcoin rose 5.9% to nearly $79,400 over a 20-hour period on Wednesday but has since cooled to $77,920, according to CoinGecko data.
Perps market has fueled Bitcoin rally: CryptoQuant
In a post to X on Wednesday, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said Bitcoin’s rally was “completely driven by demand” in the perpetual futures market.
However, he noted that spot demand has been contracting, albeit at a slow pace, and warned that a market correction could arise if traders start taking profits as spot demand continues to contract.
Related: LONGITUDE recap: Adam Back on Satoshi, crypto regulation needs tweaks
In a separate X post, CryptoQuant noted that over 300,000 Bitcoin have moved into long-term holder wallets over the last 30 days, while shorter-term holders have offloaded the cryptocurrency.
“Bitcoin supply is moving into stronger hands,” CryptoQuant said, noting that Strategy has scooped up 53,000 Bitcoin alone in the last month.
Bitcoin’s rise toward $80,000 has come despite continued uncertainty in the Middle East, with the US and Iran struggling to reach a resolution over management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Magazine: Ripple joins Singapore sandbox, Bhutan’s big Bitcoin selloff: Asia Express
Crypto World
XRP Price Surges on Technical Breakout, Whale Accumulation, and SoFi Banking Integration
Key Takeaways
- Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies a symmetrical triangle pattern with a potential 35% rally to $1.90
- SuperTrend indicator generated its first buy signal on the daily timeframe since January
- Large holders added approximately 360 million XRP tokens within seven days, bringing total whale holdings to roughly 8.8 billion
- SoFi Bank launched XRP deposit services for its 13.7 million customers and $34 billion in managed assets
- Critical resistance level positioned at $1.54 (100-day EMA) with support anchored at $1.41 (50-day EMA)
Ripple’s native token has experienced renewed momentum this week, hovering around the $1.44 mark while challenging near-term resistance zones. The upward movement aligns with multiple technical indicators and blockchain data metrics signaling potential bullish continuation.
Cryptocurrency market analyst Ali Martinez shared comprehensive chart analysis via X this week, stating that XRP “appears to be undergoing a structural trend shift from bearish to bullish.” His examination incorporated price formations, blockchain metrics, and momentum oscillators.
The SuperTrend technical tool has triggered a buy indication on the daily timeframe—marking the first occurrence since the beginning of January. This reversal implies diminishing downward pressure and potential trend change.
Martinez also highlighted a developing symmetrical triangle configuration on the 12-hour chart. This consolidation structure displays converging trendlines with declining peaks and rising troughs, compressing price action into a tightening range. Breakouts from such patterns frequently result in explosive directional moves. Martinez projects a 35% appreciation from current consolidation levels, establishing an upside objective at $1.90. According to his analysis, a daily candle closure above $1.55 would validate the bullish breakout scenario. Conversely, the $1.30 threshold represents the critical invalidation point for the bullish thesis.
Blockchain analytics reinforce the technical outlook. Leveraging Santiment platform data, Martinez observed that whale-sized wallets accumulated approximately 360 million XRP tokens during a single week period. Aggregate whale holdings expanded from around 8.3 billion to 8.8 billion XRP. Historically, large-scale investors tend to build positions during consolidation and accumulation phases.
SoFi Bank Launches XRP Deposit Services for 13.7 Million Customer Base
SoFi Bank revealed plans to integrate XRP deposit functionality for its entire user network. The federally chartered financial institution oversees more than $34 billion in total assets while servicing 13.7 million active customers. XRP now joins Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in the platform’s cryptocurrency offering portfolio.
Ripple acknowledged the development, emphasizing that the integration would facilitate broader adoption and expand the XRP ecosystem’s reach. This announcement follows recent expansions including XRP trading capabilities on WhatsApp via wXRP on Solana, plus a validator governance vote regarding a lending protocol designed to enhance DeFi infrastructure on the Ripple network.
Critical Price Levels Under Observation
Examining the daily chart, XRP currently maintains position above its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.41. The immediate overhead resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA situated at $1.54. Clearing this barrier would establish a pathway toward $1.68, where a long-duration descending trendline converges. The 200-day EMA provides additional resistance at $1.78.
The Relative Strength Index registers approximately 58, while the MACD histogram remains positioned in positive territory above the zero line. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads 32, representing an uptick from the previous week’s reading of 23.
On Binance exchange, the long-to-short position ratio for XRP stands at 2.27, indicating traders maintain a net long bias with bullish positions outnumbering bearish ones.
The Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate for perpetual futures contracts recorded 0.0066% on Wednesday, sustaining positive values continuously since April 3.
Russia’s lower house of parliament passed a bill in first reading on Tuesday that would create the country’s core legal framework for digital currency, moving Moscow closer to a system that channels crypto trading through licensed intermediaries under Bank of Russia oversight.
The draft bill No. 1194918-8, titled “On Digital Currency and Digital Rights,” passed its first reading in the State Duma on Tuesday, according to official records.
The bill would allow Russians to buy and sell crypto through approved intermediaries as early as July, while banning unlicensed crypto platforms beginning in July 2027, if the draft becomes law.
The bill is part of a new comprehensive legislative package aimed at restricting crypto trading to regulated platforms in Russia, alongside at least three other related bills introduced. One of them, bill No. 1194929-8, also passed the first reading on Tuesday.
Together, the bills would push Russia’s crypto market toward a licensed, state-supervised structure, though key enforcement pieces are still unresolved.
Key provisions of the bill
Bill 1194918-8 “On Digital Currency and Digital Rights,” would introduce investment limits for retail investors, allowing purchases only of the “most liquid digital currencies,” as defined by the Bank of Russia.
Those assets would have to meet several thresholds, including an average market capitalization of more than 5 trillion rubles ($66.6 billion) over the two years before listing, average daily trading volume of more than 1 trillion rubles ($13.3 billion) over the same period, and a trading history of at least five years.
The legislation would require retail investors to pass a test and would cap purchases through a single intermediary at 300,000 rubles ($4,000) per year.
The bill also allows residents to buy crypto abroad through foreign accounts, provided those transactions are reported to tax authorities.
The legislation also maintains a strict prohibition on crypto payments, a core provision of the crypto law “On Digital Financial Assets,” which took effect in 2021.
Supreme Court says criminal bill is premature
Apart from the two draft bills that passed their first reading, lawmakers have introduced two separate measures establishing liability and criminal penalties for violations of the new rules, including bills No. 1194944-8 and No. 1209607-8.
The latter proposes criminal penalties for unlicensed digital asset services and mandates registration with the Bank of Russia, with fines and prison terms for non-compliance.
But the Supreme Court declined to support that measure in its current form, saying the proposal depends on a broader digital currency framework that has not yet been adopted and therefore appears premature.
“The proposed article is drafted as a blanket provision, the application of which is not possible in isolation from rules directly established by regulatory acts,” the court said in an official review of the bill released last week, adding:
“Meanwhile, the draft federal law ‘On Digital Currency and Digital Rights,’ aimed at regulating issues related to the organization of digital currency circulation, is currently under development. Until the relevant federal law is adopted, the initiative in question appears premature.”
That means Tuesday’s first-reading vote is important not because it advances the base law that other enforcement measures still depend on.
Related: Russia-linked crypto exchange Grinex halts trading after $14M hack
Several local industry participants have repeatedly warned that the proposed legislation could backfire, pushing the sector further underground instead of bringing it out of the grey zone.
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A key indicator tracking the overall health of the bitcoin market has just flashed a neutral signal for the first time since prices peaked above $126,000, signaling that the bear market may have ended.
But here’s the catch: The neutral reading on the indicator turned out to be a false signal a few years ago.
That indicator is CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index, a composite metric that measures the health of the bitcoin market by analyzing ten key on-chain indicators, including blockchain activity, investor profitability, and liquidity.
It has climbed to 50 for the first time since the downtrend from $126,000 began. That number means exactly half of the index’s underlying indicators are now bullish, while the rest remain bearish. In other words, the indicator has flipped from bearish to neutral, confirming the end of the bear market, as first suggested by BTC’s price bounce from nearly $60,000 to $78,000.
For an index that has been stuck in bear territory throughout this cycle, reaching neutral is a genuine milestone. Note that readings below 40 signal a structural bear market, while readings above 60 indicate a strong, sustainable uptrend.
But history has a warning
CryptoQuant’s analyst pointed to a relevant historical precedent: March 2022, when the index rose to 50, signaling the end of the bear market at the time.
Similar to today, prices had rebounded from around $35,000 to nearly $48,000 in the weeks leading up to the signal. That price action led many market participants to believe the bear market, which began near $70,000 in November 2021, had ended.
But guess what, prices more than halved to under $20,000 in the following months. In other words, the bear market deepened.
“First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50). In March 2022, the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week, and then the price resumed its decline,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said.
A turn, not a trend
The bull score index hitting neutral is meaningful data, showcasing a real improvement in on-chain conditions rather than just price action.
However, the March 2022 precedent is a reminder that transitional phases can go either way, especially given that positioning in derivatives currently indicates a lack of conviction in the price recovery.
“Front-end vols around 40 vol remain subdued relative to realized, skew still favours downside protection, and term structure is only modestly upward sloping. Positioning continues to point to range-bound conditions rather than a sustained breakout,” Singapore-based QCP Capital, one of the largest digital asset trading firms, said in a market note.
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