Crypto World
Only 1 in 10 Weak Token Launches Recovered in 2025: Arrakis
Data from more than 120 token launches shows that early sell pressure, not market timing, largely determined whether new tokens thrived in 2025.
New tokens struggled to find a floor in 2025, with early trading dynamics often setting a trajectory that proved hard to reverse as the year wore on, data shows.
An 80-page analysis by Arrakis Finance found that about 85% of tokens launched last year finished below their initial price, after reviewing 125 token generation events (TGE) and surveying more than 25 founding teams.
The data also shows that nearly two-thirds of tokens were already down within the first seven days, and only 9.4% of tokens that declined in the first week after TGE ever recovered to their launch price at any point later in the year. In most cases, early drawdowns deepened rather than reversed.
Airdrops were one of the strongest sources of immediate selling. Across multiple launches, Arrakis observed that up to 80% of airdrop recipients sold their positions on the very first day of TGE, creating concentrated sell pressure.
“The baseline assumption should be that most of an airdrop will be sold; recipients have zero cost basis and expect prices to decline, making immediate selling rational,” the report states.
Market-making structures also mattered. Arrakis says liquidity was often mispriced, prompting traders to take quick exits.
“Liquidity depth is your buyer against sell pressure. Depth needs to absorb selling from airdrops, exchange allocations, and market maker loans without catastrophic price impact,” the report notes.
Arrakis concludes that token outcomes in 2025 were largely decided by launch mechanics rather than market cycles. Early supply shocks, not macro conditions, determined whether tokens stabilized or slid, and once early confidence was lost, recovery was statistically rare.
That finding broadly aligns with separate research from Dragonfly Capital, which recently found little difference in long-term performance between tokens launched in bull versus bear markets.
As Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi explained, regardless of the timing, most tokens don’t perform well over time. Bull market launches recorded a median annualized return of about 1.3%, while bear-market launches came in at -1.3%.
Crypto World
Crypto Market News Today: Pepeto Presale Hits $7.2M as 300X Forecasts Grow and Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin Is Going to a Million
What if the biggest crypto opportunity of 2026 isn’t buying Bitcoin at $67,000? What if it’s finding the one altcoin set to explode the hardest when Bitcoin starts its next leg up? Because every crypto cycle has proven the same thing. When Bitcoin recovers, altcoins don’t just follow. They multiply. And the altcoin positioned to make the most people rich this year is Pepeto.
Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered told DL News that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 in the coming months. According to CNBC, Bitcoin dropped below $61,000 earlier this month before recovering to $67,000. The total market has shed over $2 trillion since October.
But Michael Saylor just put it plainly. Bitcoin is not going to zero. It’s going to a million. Wall Street institutions keep accumulating. ETF inflows are still positive yearly. Every major dip in Bitcoin’s history has been followed by a bigger rally. The fear is temporary. The trajectory is not.
Given how this is where the real opportunity opens up. Every time Bitcoin rebounds, altcoins do 5x, 10x, even 100x what Bitcoin does. That pattern repeated in 2017, 2021, and it’s about to repeat again. The question is which altcoin you’re in before it happens.
Best crypto presale: Why Pepeto is the altcoin set to explode this year
Forget about scrolling through lists of coins hoping one moons. Pepeto is the one to watch.
Pepeto built the tools the meme coin economy is missing. PepetoSwap for instant trades. A cross chain bridge for moving assets between blockchains. An upcoming exchange that only lists verified projects. These aren’t concepts. They’re working demos that presale holders can test at pepeto.io. While other altcoins promise roadmaps for 2027, Pepeto already delivered.
This clear infrastructure has pushed Pepeto into crypto media headlines. Recent talk suggests 300X projections could play out once trading opens on Binance. Some longtime traders say missing Pepeto at this stage is like missing Bitcoin back when nobody cared. That might sound extreme. But when SHIB hit $40 billion with zero products, and PEPE reached $7 billion on memes alone, a project with actual working tools at $0.000000184 doesn’t need much imagination to see where it goes.
Pepeto is priced at $0.000000184 with $7.2M raised during one of the worst markets in years. Founded by a Pepe cofounder. Dual audits by SolidProof and Coinsult. Zero transaction tax. Put $5,000 in at this price. If Pepeto reaches just 200X after listing, that’s $1,000,000. On top of that, the 214% staking APY generates $10,700 a year on that same $5,000 while you wait. Staking is just the holding bonus. The real play is what Bitcoin’s recovery does to an altcoin with real products at a micro cap price. 70% already filled.
More people in crypto media are starting to notice
A crypto news site recently wrote that Pepeto could be a strong presale for 2026 given its live products and ground floor pricing. According to The Motley Fool, the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act could bring billions in institutional capital this summer. When that capital arrives, it flows into projects with real utility at early valuations. Pepeto checks every box.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered sees short term pain. Michael Saylor sees a million dollar Bitcoin. History sides with Saylor. And when Bitcoin climbs, altcoins fly harder. Pepeto at $0.000000184 with working demos, dual audits, a Pepe cofounder, and a Binance listing ahead is built to capture that wave. 70% filled. This is the opportunity crypto was designed to create.
Click To Visit Official Website To Buy Pepeto: https://pepeto.io
FAQs
Why is the crypto market down today?
Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could fall to $50K due to macro headwinds. But Michael Saylor and institutions see long term upside to $1 million. Presale tokens like Pepeto are shielded from daily swings because the entry price stays fixed until listing.
Can Pepeto really reach 300X?
SHIB hit $40 billion with no utility. PEPE hit $7 billion with no products. Pepeto has swap, bridge, exchange demos holders can test, dual audits, and a Pepe cofounder at $0.000000184. When Bitcoin recovers, altcoins multiply harder. The 300X math is grounded in real cycle patterns.
Is it worth buying presale crypto during a crash?
Presale prices don’t drop when Bitcoin drops. $5,000 in Pepeto at 200X becomes $1,000,000. The 214% staking APY adds $10,700 a year on top. Every major Bitcoin dip has led to an even bigger rally, and altcoins with utility benefit the most.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Bitcoin brushed aside a volatile round of U.S. tariff headlines on Friday, inching toward $68,000 and altcoins modestly bouncing.
The day began with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling President Donald Trump’s global tariff rollout illegal. The decision did not clarify what should happen to tariff revenue already collected, and it doesn’t necessarily spell the end of Trump’s trade agenda, with multiple legal and executive avenues still available.
By the afternoon, President Trump announced an additional 10% global tariff to be rolled out under Section 122 for roughly five months, effective in three days.
The fresh levy, imposed on top of existing tariffs, barely dented sentiment.
Risk assets, including crypto, pushed modestly higher through the session. The broad-market CoinDesk 20 Index gained 2.5% over the past 24 hours, with BNB, , and Solana (SOL) outperforming with 3%-4% advances. Bitcoin was recently trading just below $68,000.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. Among crypto-linked stocks, exchange Coinbase (COIN), stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) rose more than 2%. Bitcoin miners tied to AI infrastructure buildouts underperformed, with Riot Platforms (RIOT), Cipher Mining (CIFR), IREN and TeraWulf (WULF) falling 3%-6%.
Cryptos to stay rangebound
“We have seen a small rally for risk assets post-tariffs news as it leads into a narrative that tariffs are damaging for the macro environment,” said Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent.
Still, conviction remains light that prices could break out to the upside from the current tight range. “Volumes, however, remain muted and we can expect crypto to maintain range bound trading for the time being” barring any “macro or geopolitical shocks coming,” Howard added.
A key potential macro risk could be Trump ordering strikes against Iran over the next few days, following the significant military buildup in the region for weeks now.
Bitcoin holds near $67,700 while investors assess Trump’s new 10% global tariff plan.
Crypto markets traded slightly higher on Friday, Feb. 20, as traders reacted to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $67,728, up 1.2% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $1,970, up 1.5%. Other large-cap tokens were also mostly higher, with XRP up 1.5% to $1.43, BNB rising 3.2% to $625, and Solana (SOL) gaining 4% to $85.
Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is hovering near $2.4 trillion, up 1.3% on the day. Daily trading volume stood at around $114.5 billion, according to CoinGecko.
Among top gainers, Morpho (MORPHO) climbed 11%, Ethereum Classic (ETC) rose 5.3%, and Official Trump (TRUMP) added about 5%. On the downside, Aave (AAVE) fell roughly 4.6%, Pi Network (PI) dropped about 3%, and Rain (RAIN) slipped around 2%.
Liquidations and ETF Flows
About $180 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Long liquidations accounted for roughly $71.9 million, while shorts made up about $108 million.
Bitcoin led liquidations with $67.9 million, followed by Ethereum at around $38.3 million. More than 78,600 traders were liquidated during the period.
In the ETF space, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $165.76 million in outflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs experienced $130 million in outflows. In contrast, XRP spot ETFs recorded around $4 million in inflows, while Solana spot ETFs posted $5.94 million in inflows, per SoSoValue data.
Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs
The market uptick came amid intensifying macroeconomic uncertainty after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 10% global tariff. Trump’s announcement immediately followed a Supreme Court ruling that deemed his emergency tariffs illegal.
Notably, President Trump’s new tariffs could only take effect for up to 150 days unless Congress approves an extension, CNN reported.
Investors also reacted to increased geopolitical tensions after Trump said he is considering a limited military strike on Iran if nuclear negotiations do not progress soon.
In traditional markets, safe-haven assets have continued to hold steady. Gold traded at $5,092, up 1.46%, while silver climbed 6% to $84.
Meanwhile, Paul Howard, Senior Director, Wincent, said in comments shared with The Defiant that there has been a “mix of developments” over the past two days impacting price action independently of larger macro trends.
“These include speculation around the U.S. stablecoin bill, the launch of a SUI ETF on Nasdaq, and several DATs marking down their books,” Howard said. “Given the noticeable thinning of liquidity over the past month, volatility risk is currently elevated relative to levels observed over the past 12 months.”
Large Bitcoin (BTC) holders have steadily increased their holdings in recent months, with the total balance climbing back to levels last seen before the October 10, 2025, market crash.
At the same time, crypto exchange data shows whale-related outflows averaging 3.5% of exchange-held BTC over a 30-day rolling period, the highest since late 2024.
BTC whale reserves return to pre-October peak
Bitcoin wallets or “whales”, holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have rebuilt reserves over the past three months. The cohorts increased their total balance to 3.09 million, from 2.86 million BTC on Dec. 10, 2025, a 230,000 BTC addition that restores their balance to pre-October 2025 levels.
Crypto analyst ‘Caueconomy’ said the full drawdown in whale reserves has been reversed over the past 30 days with the accumulation of 98,000 BTC. The broader distribution phase began in August 2025 (after BTC hit $124,000), after which Bitcoin struggled to sustain a rally significantly higher.
BTC spot market data supports the recovery. Throughout 2026, the average BTC order size has ranged between 950 BTC and 1,100 BTC, the most consistent stretch of large-ticket activity since September 2024.
Similar clusters appeared during the February–March 2025 correction. During that phase, retail orders accounted for the majority of activity, while large blocks appeared more intermittently and in smaller clusters.
Related: ‘Resilient’ Bitcoin holders defend BTC, but bear floor sits 20% lower: Glassnode
BTC exchange flows spike to 14-month highs
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn reported $8.24 billion in whale BTC exchange flows moved into Binance over the past 30 days, marking a 14-month high. Retail flows reached $11.91 billion and have flattened over the same period. The retail-to-whale ratio now sits at 1.45, and it continues to drop as the larger-size deposits increase.
Parallel to these inflows, Glassnode data shows gross exchange whale withdrawals averaging 3.5% of total exchange-held BTC supply over a 30-day period, the strongest pace since November 2024.
Based on current exchange balances, that translates to roughly 60,000–100,000 BTC in withdrawals over the past month.
While gross inflows into exchanges have also increased, the elevated withdrawal ratio suggests that much of that incoming BTC is being offset by strong outbound transfers, leaving net exchange balances relatively stable.
Related: Quantum fears aren’t behind Bitcoin’s 46% drop, says developer
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Summary
- BTC fell from about $85k to $60k before stabilizing near $66k, while March 2026 options IV spiked from just above 40% to nearly 65% then eased back toward 50%.
- Matrixport flags extreme pessimism, shrinking open interest, and persistent outflows as traders cut “tail risk” hedges and overall positioning, leaving liquidity and participation thin.
- The firm notes that high volatility, muted price sensitivity, and low liquidity have historically preceded strong upside moves in crypto, especially when macro conditions are quietly improving.
Crypto asset management company Matrixport stated in its latest research note that cryptocurrency markets are approaching a critical turning point, according to a report released by the firm.
The report indicated that a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) led to a rapid increase in implied volatility in the options market, followed by a partial pullback. Bitcoin’s price briefly dropped sharply before stabilizing at a lower level, according to Matrixport’s analysis.
During the same period, the implied volatility of March 2026 expiry options climbed from approximately 40 percent to 65 percent, the report stated. The rebound indicated strong investor demand for hedging against downside risks during the decline, Matrixport noted. The subsequent drop in volatility to around 50 percent suggested that excessive “tail risk” hedges were gradually unwinding and short-term pressure had eased somewhat, according to the firm.
Matrixport stated that the market remains in a high-volatility environment. The report noted that investor sentiment is extremely pessimistic and liquidity continues to flow out of the market. Total position size has significantly decreased as traders reduce their hedging positions against collapse scenarios, weakening market participation, according to the analysis.
The report highlighted that historically, this type of combination—high volatility, low sensitivity, and decreased liquidity—has often preceded strong upward movements in cryptocurrency markets. Matrixport also noted that while there are signs of partial improvement in macroeconomic conditions, the lack of a clear reaction from cryptocurrency prices may not continue for long, according to the firm’s assessment.
A purpose-built AI security agent detected vulnerabilities in 92% of exploited DeFi smart contracts in a new open-source benchmark.
The study, released Thursday by AI security firm Cecuro, evaluated 90 real-world smart contracts exploited between October 2024 and early 2026, representing $228 million in verified losses. The specialized system flagged vulnerabilities tied to $96.8 million in exploit value, compared with just 34% detection and $7.5 million in coverage from a baseline GPT-5.1-based coding agent.
Both systems ran on the same frontier model. The difference, according to the report, was the application layer: domain-specific methodology, structured review phases and DeFi-focused security heuristics layered on top of the model.
The findings arrive amid growing concern that AI is accelerating crypto crime. Separate research from Anthropic and OpenAI has shown that AI agents can now execute end-to-end exploits on most known vulnerable smart contracts, with exploit capability reportedly doubling roughly every 1.3 months. The average cost of an AI-powered exploit attempt is about $1.22 per contract, sharply lowering the barrier to large-scale scanning.
Previous CoinDesk coverage outlined how bad actors such as North Korea have begun using AI to scale hacking operations and automate parts of the exploit process, underscoring the widening gap between offensive and defensive capabilities.
Cecuro argues that many teams rely on general-purpose AI tools or one-off audits for security, an approach the benchmark suggests may miss high-value, complex vulnerabilities. Several contracts in the dataset had previously undergone professional audits before being exploited.
The benchmark dataset, evaluation framework and baseline agent have been open-sourced on GitHub. The company said it has not released its full security agent due to concerns that similar tooling could be repurposed for offensive use.
Lower gas costs have turned Ethereum into a playground for mass address poisoning, with scammers hitting thousands of wallets daily.
Ethereum has spent years trying to fix high fees, and recent upgrades finally made transactions cheaper. But while they solved one problem, they may have opened the door to another.
Leon Waidmann, head of research at Lisk, noted in an X post on Wednesday, Feb. 18, that network activity is booming, with stablecoin volume hitting $7.5 trillion in a single quarter while transaction fees stayed under a dollar.
“Record usage. Record cheap. At the same time. The biggest divergence between fundamentals and price in all of crypto right now,” he noted.
But the growth may hide a more alarming reality. A recent study by blockchain researcher Andrey Sergeenkov finds address poisoning attacks surged significantly after the December Fusaka upgrade, which cut gas fees sixfold and made spam attacks cheap enough to scale.
Address poisoning works by sending tiny transfers from addresses that look like the victim’s real contacts. If the victim copies the wrong address from their history, funds get stolen. Sergeenkov says attackers treat this like a lottery, sending millions of cheap transactions in the hope of a few big payoffs.
Unintended Consequences
Before Fusaka, attackers were sending roughly 30,000 dust transactions per day, according to Sergeenkov’s analysis of 101 tokens between Sept. 1, 2025, and Feb. 13 this year.
But after the upgrade, lower fees made mass poisoning viable in a way that wasn’t possible before, and daily dust transactions jumped to 167,000, peaking at about 510,000 in one day in January.
In just over two months after Fusaka, victims lost more than $63 million, 13 times the $4.9 million lost in a comparable prior period, the data shows.
“There is nothing wrong with lowering fees, but the security problems that cheap transactions amplify should have been addressed before the upgrade. When the Ethereum Foundation claims it is building trillion-dollar security, user safety must be the strictest priority over growth metrics,” Sergeenkov writes.
Sergeenkov noted that a single transfer accounted for a large share of the post-Fusaka losses, when attackers stole $50 million in USDT on Dec. 19, 2025. Even leaving that out, total losses still came to $13.3 million, 2.7 times higher than the pre-Fusaka period, he concluded.
The prediction market’s Dutch arm, Adventure One, allegedly offered illegal bets, including on elections in the Netherlands.
The Netherlands Gambling Authority said it imposed a penalty on prediction markets platform Polymarket’s Dutch arm, Adventure One, for offering gambling to residents without a license.
In a Tuesday notice, Dutch authorities ordered the Polymarket company to “cease its activities immediately,” or face up to $990,000 in fines. According to authorities, Adventure One was in violation of Dutch law for offering illegal bets, including those on local elections, and the company had not responded to requests to address these activities.
”Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands,” said the Netherlands Gambling Authority’s director of licensing and supervision, Ella Seijsener. “These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.”
Polymarket and other platforms offering event contracts on prediction market platforms face similar scrutiny in the United States, where many individual state authorities have filed lawsuits over sports gambling. However, the chair of one of the federal financial regulators, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said on Tuesday that he would defend the agency’s “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, criticizing state-level action.
Related: Polymarket’s lawsuit could decide who regulates US prediction markets
Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication. The company’s chief legal officer, Neal Kumar, said on Feb. 9 that Polymarket “welcome[s] dialogue with other states while the federal courts” consider the issue of jurisdiction in the US.
Dutch tax on crypto passes House of Representatives
The Polymarket crackdown in the Netherlands came within a week of the country’s House of Representatives advancing a proposal to introduce a 36% capital gains tax on investments that would likely include cryptocurrencies. If passed by the Dutch Senate and signed into law, it could take effect as early as 2028.
Magazine: Big questions: Should you sell your Bitcoin for nickels for a 43% profit?
Key takeaways:
-
A minor 4.3% Bitcoin price increase to $69,600 could trigger over $600 million in forced liquidations for bearish traders.
-
Rising network hashrate and the BIP-360 quantum security proposal are helping to diminish long-term technical concerns.
Bitcoin (BTC) has remained confined within a relatively tight range of $65,900 to $70,500 over the past week. This stagnation has encouraged bearish traders, particularly as other major asset classes displayed resilience. However, even if Bitcoin requires months to reclaim the $90,000 level, excessive bearish confidence could trigger a wave of forced liquidations in futures positions, rapidly shifting momentum back to the bulls.
According to CoinGlass estimates, a price rally to $69,600 would force the liquidation of over $600 million in short BTC futures. For context, when Bitcoin climbed from $60,200 to $70,560 on Feb. 6, short liquidations totaled $385 million. Currently, a mere 4.3% move upward from the $66,700 level could deliver an even more significant blow to those betting on further declines.
Bulls may also find a catalyst in weakening macroeconomic data. The US reported sluggish gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annualized rate of 1.4% falling short of the 2.9% analysts expected, per Yahoo Finance. This slower economic activity negatively impacts corporate earnings outlooks, typically reducing investor appetite for stock market exposure.
Meanwhile, underlying US inflation rose more than anticipated in December, dampening hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. The US personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% month over month. As the S&P 500 loses bullish steam, investors may be forced out of their comfort zones to seek higher returns in onchain markets.
Escalating Middle East tensions may prompt investors to seek alternative hedges, particularly after gold prices rallied 25% in just three months. Gold’s market capitalization has climbed to a staggering $35.2 trillion—nearly eight times larger than Nvidia (NVDA US), which sits at $4.6 trillion.
As Bitcoin trades approximately 47% below its all-time high, the risk-reward profile for the cryptocurrency may become increasingly attractive to macro traders. For now, Bitcoin bears retain control, as evidenced by the lack of demand for long positions in the futures market.
The BTC perpetual futures funding rate has failed to stay above the 6% neutral threshold over the last two weeks. More telling is the recent stretch of negative funding rate, suggesting that bears are committed to their positions even as Bitcoin retests the $66,000 support level. Regaining conviction remains a hurdle for the bulls, who witnessed $1.6 billion in liquidations during the three-day crash that started on Feb. 6.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs shed $166M as BTC heads for worst start in years
Recovering hashrate and BIP-360 progress strengthen Bitcoin network security
While some of Bitcoin’s recent weakness was attributed to network security concerns, those risks are now dissipating.
The seven-day average hashrate has recovered to 1,100 exahashes per second, matching levels from late January. Earlier fears that miners were abandoning the network to pivot toward the artificial intelligence sector have proven premature, as the industry shows remarkable resilience.
Furthermore, the introduction of BIP-360 has addressed much of the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing threats. This proposal outlines a framework for post-quantum protection through a backwards-compatible soft fork. By removing the vulnerable key-path spend found in Taproot, the proposal hides public keys onchain until the moment of spending.
This technological roadmap provides a clear path for bulls to regain the narrative, potentially forcing a short squeeze that could propel Bitcoin back above $70,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
XRP remains under sustained bearish pressure across both its USDT and BTC pairs, with the price structure continuing to print lower highs and lower lows. Despite short-term bounces from support levels, the broader trend favors sellers as the price trades below key moving averages and within a descending structure.
Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair
On the XRP/USDT chart, the price is trading inside a well-defined descending channel, consistently rejecting dynamic resistance from the midline of the channel, the upper trendline, and the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The recent bounce from the $1.20 demand zone failed to reclaim the $1.80 supply area, reinforcing the bearish structure and confirming that rallies are still corrective in nature.
The RSI also remains below the neutral 50 level and continues to trend weakly, signaling a lack of bullish momentum. As long as XRP stays below the mid-channel resistance and the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located near $1.90 and $2.30 levels, respectively, the downside risk toward the lower channel boundary remains elevated, with the $1.20 zone acting as critical structural support.
The BTC Pair
Against Bitcoin, XRP is also showing relative weakness, trading below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are both located above the 2,200 sats area, after failing to hold prior breakout gains. The rejection from the 2,200-2,400 sats resistance zone confirms that sellers are defending higher levels, while the price compresses near a key horizontal support band at 2,000 sats.
Momentum on the XRP/BTC pair is neutral-to-bearish, with the RSI struggling to establish sustained strength above 50. A breakdown below the current support region could open the door for further relative underperformance, while reclaiming the moving average cluster would be the first signal that XRP is beginning to regain strength versus BTC.
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