US President Donald Trump says a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the US–Iran conflict is slated to be signed on Sunday, even though Iranian officials have previously questioned the timing. Trump also claimed that the “Hormuz Strait” would be opened to all immediately after the signing.

The proposed agreement—mediated by Pakistan—would extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Pakistan’s prime minister said finalization could occur within 24 hours, Iran has not confirmed Sunday as the signing date, leaving traders to weigh the prospect of de-escalation against the risk of further delays.

Key takeaways

• Trump says the US–Iran memorandum is scheduled for Sunday signing and that shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz would follow immediately after.
• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the agreement could be finalized within 24 hours, with electronic signing likely shortly afterward.
• Iran has indicated the memorandum would not be signed “tomorrow,” pointing instead to “coming days,” creating near-term timeline uncertainty.
• Analysts expect a peace-related improvement in risk sentiment to benefit crypto—particularly Bitcoin—after months of geopolitics-driven pressure.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative for five straight weeks, with CoinShares research previously linking recent digital asset outflows to geopolitics and interest-rate uncertainty.

Sunday signing claim vs. Iran’s timeline uncertainty

In a Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump said: “The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow,” adding that once signed, “the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.” The statement places the signing squarely on Sunday, setting a clear expectation for immediate follow-on steps that could affect shipping and energy markets.

Pakistan, which has been mediating between the US and Iran, also indicated progress. According to remarks attributed to Pakistani leadership on X, an agreement could be reached within 24 hours.

However, Iran has not confirmed Trump’s timeline. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, told state media earlier that the memorandum would not be signed on Sunday and could instead occur “in the coming days.” That clarification matters because it suggests the ceasefire-extension and Strait-of-Hormuz reopenings may depend on a final date agreed by all parties—not just on public statements from Washington and intermediaries.

The deal in question is described as a memorandum of understanding. It is expected to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Still, until Iran confirms the signing date and details, markets may treat Sunday as a scenario rather than a certainty.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters for crypto risk appetite

During the conflict, the naval blockade has reportedly choked around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, according to the article’s summary. That kind of disruption can spill into macro conditions—raising energy costs, influencing inflation expectations, and amplifying risk premiums across asset classes.

Crypto has not been immune. The same disruption has been linked to a sentiment shock that “pressed crypto markets for months,” reflecting how geopolitical escalation can tighten financial conditions and reduce appetite for volatile assets.

If de-escalation proceeds as envisioned—particularly reopening the Strait of Hormuz—investors may look for improved macro visibility and a broader shift back toward “risk-on” behavior. In practice, that can translate into increased demand for high-beta assets like Bitcoin, especially when market participants believe liquidity constraints may ease.

What analysts are watching for Bitcoin and ETF flows

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a peace deal between Iran and the US could trigger a “surge in Bitcoin,” alongside positive ETF flows. His thesis is tied to liquidity returning to risk assets once uncertainty fades.

Van de Poppe’s view also comes alongside ongoing data on Bitcoin ETF performance. According to the referenced SoSoValue tracking, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $315.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Friday—marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows for Bitcoin-linked crypto funds. Persistent redemptions are important because they can offset spot buying from other parts of the market, dampening upside momentum even if headlines improve.

Separately, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill told Cointelegraph earlier that recent outflows from digital asset investment products were driven primarily by geopolitics. In that account, uncertainty around the Iran conflict was seen as weighing on expectations for interest rates—an interaction that can influence the valuation and risk appetite of crypto assets.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,491, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours. While that immediate move suggests some buyers respond to improving headlines, the broader ETF trend indicates the market’s positioning remains cautious.

De-escalation is likely beneficial—but the deal still has execution risk

The clearest tension in the story is the gap between declared signing timing and Iran’s stated uncertainty. Trump’s “tomorrow” claim and Pakistan’s expectation of near-term finalization set a near-term catalyst in motion. Yet Iran’s messaging that the memorandum would not be signed Sunday implies that execution risk remains.

For traders and long-horizon investors, this is more than diplomatic theater. If the signing is delayed, markets that priced a rapid reduction in geopolitical risk could reverse quickly—particularly in a market already contending with ongoing ETF outflows. On the other hand, if the memorandum is signed and implementation steps begin, the energy and macro channel that has weighed on sentiment could start to unwind.

Even in optimistic scenarios, investors will likely track whether reopening steps for the Strait of Hormuz are actually operational, not just announced. That practical follow-through is what determines whether the conflict’s macro impacts—energy disruption and related inflation fears—turn into a relief factor rather than another unresolved headline.

Going forward, the key question is whether Iran ultimately confirms Sunday signing—or whether the memorandum shifts further into “coming days.” Readers should also watch for whether any post-signing commitments translate into measurable changes for shipping and energy-market expectations, since that is where crypto sentiment has been most sensitive so far.

CoinFund founder Jake Brukhman said the Anthropic export-control dispute shows why decentralized AI networks are gaining attention as a possible counterweight to centralized model control.

In a June 13 X post, Brukhman said AI models are a centralizing force and a major target for government control. He linked that view to Anthropic’s decision to comply with a U.S. directive that forced it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

Anthropic said the order required it to block access for foreign nationals, including foreign-national employees, whether inside or outside the United States. The company said it disabled both models for all users to meet the directive, while other Claude models remained available.

Anthropic shutdown highlights distributed GPU training

Brukhman said decentralized networks can act as a counterbalance because AI’s first hard problem is access to large-scale compute. “The answer is simple: there is enough commodity GPU compute in the world to compete on the frontier,” he wrote, adding that new training methods are needed to use it.

He named Gensyn, Prime Intellect, Bagel, Pluralis, Nous Research, Macrocosmos AI, and Covenant as teams working on distributed training. He said their work shows that decentralized training is possible, cheaper, and nearly as efficient as centralized systems, though the sector still faces technical limits.

Pluralis model draws business focus

Brukhman also pointed to the business problem facing open-source AI. He argued that open models can be useful but often lack a revenue model strong enough to support frontier training costs.

He said Pluralis has proposed one answer by splitting model weights among participants. In his view, that structure can support tokenized AI models because no single participant holds the full model, while the network can still provide access to the system.

Broader AI pressure

As previously reported by crypto.news, Anthropic launched Fable 5 only days before the shutdown, presenting it as a Mythos-class model with added safeguards. The same report said some cybersecurity, biology, chemistry, and distillation requests would fall back to Claude Opus 4.8.

Earlier reports also showed the scale of AI infrastructure demand. Blackstone and Apollo were lining up about $36 billion in debt financing for Anthropic’s Google TPU expansion. Separate reporting on open AI infrastructure said concentrated compute access can leave whole regions dependent on a few providers.

Brukhman framed the moment as a choice between centralized AI and public AI on open networks. “This is the moment of truth,” he wrote, asking whether AI will fall under “censorship and unilateral government control” or move toward decentralized systems.

US President Donald Trump said a deal to end the fighting between the US and Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, despite officials in Tehran previously casting doubt on the timeline. 

“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” said Trump on Truth Social on Saturday. 

Source: Donald Trump

Pakistan, which is mediating talks between the US and Iran, also signaled an agreement could be reached within 24 hours. 

The deal, a memorandum of understanding, is expected to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

The naval blockade has choked 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, which has led to higher global asset prices and a sentiment shock that has pressured crypto markets for months. 

“We are closer to a peace deal than ever before,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X on Saturday. “With finalisation likely expected in the next 24 hours, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week.” 

Iran has not confirmed the Sunday signing. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state media earlier that the memorandum wouldn’t be signed on Sunday, but could happen “in the coming days.” 

“We will have to wait and see about the exact date of the signing of the memorandum of understanding, although it will not be tomorrow,” Baghaei said.

Analysts say peace deal will benefit crypto

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a peace deal between Iran and the US will likely prompt a surge in Bitcoin, along with positive ETF flows. 

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded about $315.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Friday, marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows for the Bitcoin-linked crypto funds. 

Related: Bitcoin tags $63.2K as BTC price action ignores inflation, Iran Hormuz closure

“Liquidity will pour back into risk-on assets as liquidity will seek for an opportunity and after SpaceX IPO was done, most likely this will go towards crypto,” he added. 

On Wednesday, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill told Cointelegraph the recent outflow from digital asset investment products was being primarily driven by geopolitics, with uncertainty around the Iran conflict weighing on the outlook for interest rates.

Bitcoin was trading at $64,491 at the time of writing, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. 

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The Trump administration’s move to limit foreign access to Anthropic’s most capable AI models was reportedly sparked by security concerns raised through industry channels, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The episode culminated in export controls that forced Anthropic to pull its latest release from public access.

As U.S. officials acted quickly on the perceived risk, decentralized AI-focused tokens also rallied over the same period, underscoring how government interventions in centralized AI can rapidly reshape expectations across the broader crypto AI sector.

Key takeaways

• According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy contacted senior U.S. officials after researchers found a way to prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into producing information that could be used for cyberattacks.
• A White House scramble followed, including outreach to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and disagreement over how serious and actionable the risk was.
• Anthropic said in a blog post that the U.S. directive reflected a misunderstanding tied to a “non-universal jailbreak” reported by an unnamed source.
• David Sacks, a science-and-technology advisor, said the administration issued the export control “reluctantly” and hoped Anthropic would remediate the safety issue quickly.
• Token markets reacted immediately, with several decentralized AI projects posting gains after Anthropic’s access was curtailed.

How the White House stepped in

Earlier coverage from The Wall Street Journal describes a chain of events involving both private-sector discovery and government escalation. The report says Amazon researchers identified a method to “jailbreak” Anthropic’s Fable 5 model—specifically, a way to coax it into returning information that could be repurposed for cyberattacks.

Following that discovery, The Wall Street Journal reported that Andy Jassy reached out to senior U.S. officials on Thursday. The outreach, combined with warnings from at least five other firms, prompted an urgent response inside the White House as officials assessed whether the issue warranted formal export controls.

Politico separately described the rapid internal process, including contact with Anthropic leadership. According to the Politico report referenced in the Wall Street Journal write-up, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei pushed back on the administration’s concerns and asked to avoid a voluntary pull of the model.

Anthropic’s response to the directive

The immediate outcome was a U.S. directive that forced Anthropic to suspend access to its new model. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted that Anthropic “suspends access” under this U.S. directive, and the company later indicated that it is working to restore access for users.

In a Friday blog post, Anthropic said it believed the directive was driven by a misunderstanding about the threat posed by what it called a “non-universal jailbreak,” a term tied to information attributed to an unnamed report. In other words, Anthropic did not frame the jailbreak issue as universally exploitable, but rather as something the administration may have interpreted more broadly than the company believed was warranted.

Amazon, for its part, did not confirm whether it spoke directly with government officials about Anthropic’s models. A spokesperson said it is common for governments to seek counsel from major cloud providers when security risks emerge, and that when such discussions occur, Amazon does not share details.

Why officials framed it as a reluctant export control

David Sacks, co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, characterized the administration’s actions in a post on Saturday. In the cited remarks, Sacks said the administration issued the export control “in reaction” and that it did so “reluctantly.” He also suggested the administration was surprised Anthropic had not agreed to cooperate on a “reasonable safety request,” which he tied to fixing the jailbreak issue.

Critically for readers watching how these decisions unfold, Sacks added that the administration’s hope is for Anthropic to remediate the safety problem in a way that could lead to lifting the export control and returning the model to general release. He indicated the administration wants the process to happen as soon as possible.

This matters because the difference between a temporary suspension and a prolonged export-control regime can strongly influence both enterprise deployment timelines and user expectations—especially when the impacted model is already attracting measurable usage. The article notes Claude is estimated to have around 18,900 monthly active users.

Ripple effects in decentralized AI token markets

Beyond the immediate controversy, the episode illustrated the government’s ability to rapidly shut off access to U.S.-based AI models. That speed appeared to spill into token markets tied to decentralized AI infrastructure and development.

Cointelegraph reported that the announcement period coincided with gains for several AI-focused tokens on Friday and Saturday. The native token of Bittensor, a decentralized AI protocol sometimes described as “the Bitcoin of AI” (per market commentary echoed in the coverage), rose 23.9% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko’s coin page referenced in the article.

Other mentioned movers included Venice Token (VVV), which rose 16%, and Near Protocol (NEAR), which gained 6.2% as investors priced in the potential resilience—or at least perceived independence—of decentralized AI ecosystems relative to centralized model providers facing regulatory constraints.

These moves were not an endorsement of any single token’s fundamentals based on the Anthropic situation; rather, they reflected a common market narrative: if centralized AI access can be throttled quickly through government directives, decentralized alternatives may attract attention as a hedge or alternative channel for AI development and monetization.

What to watch next

The key uncertainty now is whether Anthropic can demonstrate effective remediation quickly enough to satisfy U.S. officials—potentially leading to lifting the export controls. For investors and builders, the follow-up timeline and the clarity of what “remediation” means in practice will likely be the most important indicators of how durable this precedent could be.

The Trump administration’s decision to cut foreign access to Anthropic’s most powerful AI models was reportedly set in motion by outreach from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, after researchers found a potential way to coax the company’s “Fable 5” model into producing information that could be repurposed for cyberattacks. The episode escalated quickly into White House-level review and culminated in export controls that, according to Anthropic, followed a U.S. directive.

As the dispute unfolded, U.S. regulators also demonstrated how fast access to a widely used AI system can be curtailed—an event that traders linked to a rebound in several decentralized “AI token” projects on Friday and Saturday. The move has reignited questions about how AI safety issues are assessed, communicated, and ultimately enforced across borders.

Key takeaways

• According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy contacted senior U.S. officials after Amazon researchers identified a prompt-based workaround affecting Anthropic’s Fable 5.
• The White House reportedly moved to impose export controls and engaged Anthropic leadership; Anthropic pushed back and said it was working to restore access for users.
• David Sacks, co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, said the administration acted “reluctantly” and hoped Anthropic would fix the jailbreak issue quickly.
• On-chain and token-linked markets appeared to react to the sudden availability shift, with decentralized AI-related tokens posting gains over the same period.

How the alleged “jailbreak” concern reportedly triggered export controls

In a report cited by The Wall Street Journal, the core catalyst was described as a method discovered by Amazon researchers that could prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 into returning information that might be used in cyberattacks. The WSJ reports that Jassy reached out to senior U.S. officials on Thursday after that finding, along with similar warnings from at least five other firms.

Those escalations reportedly led to a “frantic shuffle” within the White House to assess the threat and to contact Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. According to the Politico reporting referenced in the original account, Amodei pushed back on the administration’s concerns and asked to resolve them through voluntary cooperation rather than immediate removal of access.

Anthropic ultimately said it believed the U.S. directive stemmed from a misunderstanding of the threat, describing the issue as a “non-universal jailbreak” that came from an unnamed report. In earlier coverage from Cointelegraph, Anthropic was reported to have suspended access to its new model—an action tied to the U.S. directive.

What Anthropic and U.S. officials said—and what remains disputed

One signal of where the disagreement may lie is the framing of the risk. Anthropic’s blog post, as described in the reporting, suggests the administration’s understanding of the jailbreak’s scope may have been overstated. The company’s view was that the jailbreak was not “universal,” implying it would not reliably work across prompts and contexts.

Still, U.S. officials acted decisively. David Sacks told X on Saturday that the administration issued the export control in response to the situation and that it was “very surprised” Anthropic did not want to cooperate on a “reasonable safety request” to fix the jailbreak issue. Sacks characterized the administration’s approach as cautious and reluctant, but nonetheless committed to the safety request and the goal of restoring access after remediation.

The original reporting also states that Amazon did not confirm whether it spoke directly with government officials about the models. In an emailed statement, an Amazon spokesperson said that it is common for governments to seek counsel on potential security risks and that the company does not share details of those discussions when they occur. That leaves some of the exact internal communications unclear, even as the WSJ account links Jassy’s outreach to the administration’s subsequent decision.

Why the “switch-off” matters for AI providers and users

Beyond the specific model dispute, the episode highlights a practical reality for AI users and integrators: access to a U.S.-linked model can be restricted quickly, even for high-demand systems. Cointelegraph’s earlier coverage noted that the directive forced Anthropic to pull its model from public availability, and the current reporting ties the export control to the same turning point.

For enterprises that depend on frontier models—whether for customer-facing applications, research workflows, or operational automation—the risk is not only technical but operational. A safety finding, a regulatory determination, or even a disagreement about the severity of a vulnerability can translate into abrupt availability changes. That can affect uptime, roadmap planning, compliance reporting, and model routing strategies across vendors.

Anthropic stated it is working to restore access for its users. Sacks’ comments add what many market participants will likely focus on next: whether remediation happens fast enough to satisfy regulators and lead to removal or easing of the export control.

Token markets react to sudden access restrictions

The crackdown also appeared to ripple into crypto markets tied to decentralized AI narratives. The original reporting describes the U.S. government’s ability to rapidly disable access to U.S.-based AI models as a factor behind gains in several decentralized AI tokens over Friday and Saturday.

According to the cited CoinGecko pricing data, Bittensor’s native token rose 23.9% over the past 24 hours referenced in the article. Bittensor is described as a decentralized AI protocol enabling people to build and monetize AI models. The reporting also cited Venice Token (VVV) up 16% and Near Protocol’s token rising 6.2%, with Near positioned as infrastructure for decentralized AI agent applications.

While these moves do not necessarily indicate a direct causal relationship between the export control and token valuations, the timing underscores how quickly crypto markets can respond to policy-driven changes in the broader AI ecosystem. For traders and long-term holders, the key question is whether the market is reacting to the news itself or to expectations that decentralized models and infrastructure will gain relative attention if centralized providers face recurring regulatory constraints.

As the situation develops, readers should watch for concrete updates from Anthropic on remediation efforts, as well as any indications that regulators are prepared to lift or modify the export controls. The central uncertainty remains whether the jailbreak risk is viewed as sufficiently resolved—and how regulators will define “enough” safety to re-enable broader access.

The Trump administration’s decision to cut foreign access to Anthropic’s most powerful AI models was reportedly triggered by calls from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Jassy contacted senior government officials on Thursday after Amazon researchers discovered a way to prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into returning information that could be used for cyberattacks. 

The call, along with warnings from at least five other firms, led to a frantic shuffle within the White House to gauge the threat and contact Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who reportedly pushed back on the administration’s concerns and requests to voluntarily pull the model. 

“In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly,” said David Sacks, the co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, on Saturday. “It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue).”

Source: David Sacks

The episode sheds light on what led to the US directive that forced Anthropic to pull its new model from the public on Friday night. Anthropic Claude is estimated to have around 18,900 monthly active users. 

In a blog post on Friday, Anthropic said it believed the US directive was the result of a misunderstanding about the threat posed by a “non-universal jailbreak,” which came from an unnamed report. 

Amazon did not confirm if it spoke to government officials about Anthropic’s models. 

“As a leading cloud provider that serves a large number of private and public sector customers, it’s not uncommon for governments to seek ​our counsel on potential security risks,” a spokesperson said. “When they occur, we don’t share the details of these discussions.”

Anthropic said it is working to restore access for its users.

Related: Anthropic suspends access to Fable 5, Mythos 5, citing US directive

“The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue,” Sacks said, which would see the export control lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. 

“The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible.”

AI tokens surge after Anthropic crackdown

The episode has also demonstrated the US government’s ability to promptly switch off access to US-based AI models on command, leading to a rally in decentralized AI tokens on Friday and Saturday. 

The native token of Bittensor, a decentralized AI protocol that lets people build and monetize artificial intelligence models, which some refer to as “the Bitcoin of AI,” surged 23.9% over the past 24 hours.

Venice Token (VVV), the native utility and privacy coin powering Venice AI, a decentralized, uncensored AI platform founded by Erik Voorhees, rose 16%.

Near Protocol, a blockchain project building the infrastructure to support a decentralized AI agent economy, rose 6.2%.

Source: Erik Voorhees

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