Crypto World
Pi Network tests triangle breakout as RoboPay partnership boosts adoption
Key takeaways
- Pi Network is testing a breakout from a short-term triangle near $0.085.
- RoboPay has added Pi Network as a payment partner for robot-based services.
- PI futures Open Interest increased to $8.82 million, indicating steady speculative demand.
Pi Network (PI) edges higher on Wednesday as the token attempts to break out of a short-term triangle pattern near $0.085.
The recovery comes amid improving momentum indicators, steady derivatives demand, and a new payment partnership with RoboPay. However, PI remains confined within a broader falling channel and must overcome resistance near $0.09 to establish a stronger bullish trend.
RoboPay adds Pi Network as payment partner
Fabric Foundation announced on Wednesday that Pi Network had joined RoboPay as a payment partner.
The integration will allow Pi users to pay for robot-powered services using PI tokens. Potential applications include deliveries, security patrols, inspections, and services performed by humanoid robots.
The partnership represents another potential real-world use case for PI and could support adoption if the services gain traction among Pi Network users.
However, the longer-term effect will depend on the scale of RoboPay’s operations, user demand and the availability of supported services.
Speculative demand for Pi Network remains relatively stable this week. CoinAnk data shows that PI futures Open Interest increased to $8.82 million on Wednesday from $8.51 million the previous day.
The increase indicates that the value of active perpetual futures contracts is rising as traders build new positions. While this signals growing market participation, Open Interest alone does not reveal whether those positions are predominantly bullish or bearish.
Pi Network tests triangle resistance
PI is extending its modest recovery and testing the upper resistance trend line of a short-term triangle pattern near $0.085.
The triangle has developed within a larger descending channel, meaning the token remains under pressure from the broader bearish structure. An additional downtrend line near $0.09 strengthens the resistance zone immediately above the current price.
A confirmed breakout from the smaller triangle would improve the near-term outlook, but PI must surpass the wider resistance cluster near $0.09 to restore a more convincing bullish trend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence and its signal line are trending modestly higher, pointing to early signs of improving upside momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has recovered to 44. Although it remains below the neutral 50 level, its upward movement indicates that bearish momentum is beginning to fade.
The indicators support a mildly bullish short-term bias but do not yet confirm that buyers have regained full control.
A decisive close above the overhead trend lines around $0.09 could strengthen PI’s recovery and bring the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $0.0961 into focus.
Clearing that level would provide further evidence that the short-term trend is shifting in favor of buyers.
If PI fails to break above the triangle and descending-channel resistance, the token could retreat toward the record low of $0.07. This support area is reinforced by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $0.0679.
A sustained break below that zone would invalidate the developing recovery and signal a continuation of the broader downtrend.
Donald Trump should follow our lead in California. The path we’ve taken is proven to work. Climate action goes hand in hand with economic dominance. California is the fourth largest economy in the world because of our work to move away from fossil fuels, not in spite of it. Greenhouse gas emissions in California are down 20% since 2000, even as the state’s GDP increased 78% in that same time period.
The most expensive and dangerous option before us is doing nothing. The costs of climate change far exceed the costs of transitioning to a green, resilient economy. And not only is the Trump Administration doing nothing, it is actively working to turn the clock back on decades of progress of cleaning the air and protecting public health.
In 2023 alone, the U.S. saw 28 separate natural disasters—fires, floods, hurricanes—each made more devastating by climate change. Those claimed more than 400 lives and cost more than $92 billion in damages. In the face of all that, the Trump Administration wants to suggest that climate change doesn’t endanger us all. Seriously? Trump is siding with polluters over science, and telling fire victims to ignore the flames, flood victims to ignore the rising water, and parents of asthmatic children to ignore their kids choking.
That is not leadership. That is a betrayal of the American people that the federal government is duty-bound to protect. California will not stand by. We will continue to lead, because we have no choice: The lives and livelihoods of our people depend on it.
What gives you hope about the future of the planet?
California is a state of dreamers, doers, entrepreneurs, and innovators. At our best, we pride ourselves on being on the leading and cutting edge of new ideas. We’re a state where 27% of the population is foreign-born. A majority minority state. A state that’s proud to be home to the founding papers of the United Nations. We’re a pluralistic state that practices pluralism.
And we believe that our state can show the world that it’s possible to live and progress together across many imaginable differences. And that is absolutely true when it comes to tackling the defining crisis of our time: climate change.
We’re transforming our economy to run on 100% clean electricity, use 94% less oil, cut air pollution by 71%, all by 2045. At the same time, we’re reimagining transportation, leading the charge to zero-emission vehicles and building the nation’s first true high-speed rail system. And we’ve done all this while becoming the fourth largest economy in the world. We have seven times more clean energy jobs than fossil fuel jobs, and more clean energy jobs than any other state.
Simply put: California is a model for climate action, and when we succeed, the rest of our planet succeeds.
If you could stand up and talk to world leaders at the next COP, what would you say?
California is your stable and reliable partner. California and other climate-leading states are with you in the commitment to achieving global climate goals.
We have been committed to building a clean and resilient future for decades. But we aren’t just making commitments anymore. This year, we ran the fourth largest economy in the world on 100% clean energy at least part of the day almost every day. We’re showing that you can do all of this while reducing carbon pollution, growing the economy, advancing water and food security, and safeguarding a livable future for our children and grandchildren.
Our policies have increased innovation and consumer choices for clean energy and fuel; reduced risks to our economy associated with volatile global oil markets; and generated nearly $33 billion from polluters to fund climate solutions and lower clean energy costs across California. Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2045 will create 4 million new jobs and save Californians $200 billion in avoided health care costs.
We are a trusted and credible climate partner that has consistently shown up on the world stage, worked with countries across the globe to reduce carbon pollution, and led coalitions of climate leaders across our country committed to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. Let’s do this.
The Trump Administration is likely to extend a waiver of a century-old shipping law in an effort to keep energy prices down, officials said.
After Iran militarized the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the U.S. and Israel launching the war on Feb. 28, disrupting global energy supplies and sending oil prices skyrocketing, the Trump Administration temporarily suspended the Jones Act. The law requires that cargo moving between U.S. ports be carried on ships built in the U.S., owned by American companies, and predominantly crewed by Americans. By allowing foreign ships to transport cargo in the U.S., the waiver made domestic shipping more flexible, although estimates suggest the waiver would reduce oil prices by only a few cents per gallon.
The waiver has been extended once before and could be extended again as recent flare-ups between the U.S. and Iran dim hopes of a quick return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lower energy prices.
“I think another extension, temporary extension, of the Jones Act waivers is quite likely to happen,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at a media briefing in Texas on Tuesday. “These temporary suspensions of the Jones Act have been quite helpful for moving energy around our country.”
The current suspension will expire on Aug. 16, and the oil industry had reportedly expected a decision on an extension by the end of July. But the waiver has faced criticism from American maritime companies that argue it weakens the domestic shipping industry and does little to meaningfully lower fuel prices. Trump officials are reportedly still deciding whether to extend the waiver.
Still, Trump is facing increasing pressure to bring down U.S. petrol prices—currently averaging more than $4 a gallon—while the war’s economic and human costs have become a political liability for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in November.
By Aug. 16, the waiver will reach 150 days, making this the longest suspension of Jones Act shipping restrictions in the program’s history. The waiver was first issued for a 60-day period on March 17, then extended for a 90-day period beginning May 18.
President Donald Trump and his officials have also explored other avenues to lower fuel costs as the war against Iran has threatened to spillover into new shipping routes and prolong economic pain for Americans and the rest of the world. On Monday, Trump called on ExxonMobil and Chevron—the two biggest U.S. oil companies—to return their surging profits to customers at the pump.
“President Trump believes in markets and he believes in capitalism. But he’ll use every tool he has, including the bully pulpit, to try to encourage and put pressure to lower energy prices for Americans,” Wright said.
To waiver or not to waiver
The Jones Act, part of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, was initially enacted to strengthen the U.S. shipping industry after World War I. The policy was rooted in an 1817 law that restricted domestic maritime trade to U.S.-owned vessels and a 1789 law that encouraged U.S.-built and -owned ships through preferential tax treatment.
Since the Jones Act rules were first waived till the end of July, there have been 196 voyages conducted under the waiver, according to government data. The waiver covers hundreds of commodities, including crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, coal, ammonia, and fertilizers. It has increased the availability of tankers to move critical fuel supplies around the country, Wright said, noting that it has kept energy prices in California and on the East Coast “lower than they would otherwise be.” He said fuel prices should come down in the coming weeks.
The Administration appears likely to extend the waiver, although an extension is not confirmed and may have restrictions. Trump officials have reportedly met with industry representatives and lawmakers about potentially narrowing the scope of the waiver to be more targeted and friendlier to the domestic shipping industry.
The Maritime Trades Department, which represents U.S. and Canadian maritime workers, argued that the waiver threatens American vessel operators, mariners and shipyards by upending a law that is “the backbone to the American industrial workforce.” Without the law’s protections for American-owned and -operated vessels, the influx of foreign vessels could potentially lead to losses for U.S. shipyards, ultimately hurting the broader economy, the union said.
Maritime firms have also said that the waiver produces minimal savings for consumers and urged the U.S. government to pursue more effective cost-saving measures. In an article published by the Center for Maritime Strategy, non-resident senior fellow John McCown argued that the Jones Act’s benefits far outweigh its costs.
“The waiver was justified as an emergency measure to lower fuel prices. It should be judged on whether it achieved that objective. And despite more than 130 foreign voyages under the waiver, consumers have seen little measurable relief at the pump,” William Doyle, a former Federal Maritime Commission member, wrote in a letter to the Washington Post in July.
And both maritime firms and some lawmakers have raised concerns about the waiver’s potential impact on national security.
In a June 30 letter to Trump, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority leader Steve Scalise, as well as 50 other House Republicans, called the waiver “a loophole exploited by adversarial countries to erode America’s maritime dominance.” The group of lawmakers urged the Administration to let the waiver expire on Aug. 16.
Two Democratic lawmakers separately penned a letter opposing the waiver and calling for greater scrutiny of its use.
Maritime companies and unions argue the waiver has opened protected U.S. domestic trade up to vessels linked to China, a major maritime rival of the U.S., while diverting business away from U.S. carriers. In June, American maritime groups raised concern about one such vessel, Jin Zhou Wan, whose operator is a subsidiary of state-owned China COSCO Shipping Corporation, which appears on the Pentagon’s list of Chinese military-linked companies. Voyages by Jin Zhou Wan carried asphalt—which is covered by the waiver—rather than fuel, which critics cited as evidence that the waiver is overly broad.
Extended waivers could weaken demand for U.S.-built and -crewed vessels, groups say, potentially discouraging investment in domestic maritime capacity and undermining the Trump Administration’s goal of rebuilding the American shipbuilding industry.
Pressure to lower gas prices
The Trump Administration has already taken other measures aimed at lowering energy prices. In March, the Administration authorized the release of 172 million barrels of crude oil from the country’s national stockpile. Also in March, it temporarily eased sanctions on some oil supplies from Russia and Iran.
Trump has also called out the biggest U.S. oil companies for “making too much money” amid the energy crisis. ExxonMobil recorded a $14.5 billion profit in the second quarter of 2026—105% more than the same period last year—and Chevron recorded a $12.1 billion profit—385% higher year over year.
“When you look at one company where they made 12 times what they made the year before, they ought to give some of that back to the public,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “And they better cut the retail price, the consumer price.”
Oil prices initially fell after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June, but climbed again after the agreement broke down and fighting resumed. Prices have fallen again this week on hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough as mediators reported progress towards an agreement, but it could still take some time for global energy prices to stabilize. Wright previously said it could take “many months to get back to normal flows of energy” after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz ends. Analysts previously told TIME it could take months for shipping through the Strait to return to prewar levels, and further fighting between the U.S. and Iran or a breakdown of negotiations could prolong that recovery.
Mastercard and stablecoin orchestration network Borderless are launching a pilot focused on improving cross-border stablecoin payments using Mastercard’s Crypto Credential standards-based framework.
The initiative, announced in coordination with Cointelegraph, will test whether Mastercard’s approach can generate assurance signals that market participants can plug into their own approval, compliance, and risk workflows—potentially reducing friction where verification responsibilities often become fragmented across counterparties.
Key takeaways
- Mastercard and Borderless will trial how Crypto Credential standards can produce governance and verification signals for cross-border stablecoin payments.
- The pilot is designed to help participants incorporate assurance signals into their internal approval, compliance, and risk processes.
- Borderless frames compliance and trust between parties as the key bottleneck, comparing it to how correspondent banking historically handled assurance.
- Mastercard will not process or settle funds as part of the pilot; the project centers on the credential layer rather than payment execution.
Why “assurance signals” matter for stablecoin payments
Stablecoins can move value quickly, but cross-border usage often runs into a problem that looks less like a technology challenge and more like a governance and compliance workflow issue. According to Borderless CEO and co-founder Kevin Lehtiniitty, the main source of friction is providing the right kind of assurance across a chain of counterparties.
Lehtiniitty compares the situation to correspondent banking, which “solved this decades ago” by making trust upstream and avoiding repeated re-execution of compliance checks at each step with downstream parties. In his view, Mastercard’s Crypto Credential framework aims to apply a similar idea to digital-asset payments: instead of every participant building their own end-to-end verification logic from scratch, the system provides standardized signals that can be interpreted and used across the network.
Mastercard’s Crypto Credential framework, as described in the announcement, relies on common standards and assurance signals intended to add certainty to blockchain-related transactions. In the pilot, the partners will look specifically for governance signals that can lower operational friction in cross-border stablecoin flows.
A pilot focused on governance, not settlement
While the partnership is positioned within the broader stablecoin payments ecosystem, the pilot itself is intentionally narrower. Lehtiniitty told Cointelegraph that Mastercard’s role would be limited to the Crypto Credential governance and verification layer; Mastercard will not process or settle funds as part of this test.
That distinction matters for how investors and builders might interpret the trial. It suggests the project is primarily about interoperability—how credentialed assurance can be communicated and reused—rather than about replacing payment rails or directly competing with settlement providers in the near term.
For Borderless, the value proposition is tied to workflow integration: participants would be able to take the signals produced under Mastercard’s framework and incorporate them into their existing approval, compliance, and risk processes. The pilot therefore aims at practical adoption challenges, not just a theoretical standard.
How Mastercard’s stablecoin push is evolving
The pilot builds on Mastercard’s recent expansion in the stablecoin industry. Cointelegraph previously reported that Mastercard completed its acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK on Monday, a deal valued at $1.8 billion.
In June, Mastercard also announced plans to expand settlement capabilities to include intraday, weekend, and holiday card settlement. That proposal included settlement through stablecoins such as Circle’s USDC, Paxos-issued PYUSD, and other dollar-linked tokens, including USDG and USDP, as well as Ripple’s RLUSD and SoFi’s SoFiUSD.
Taken together, the new pilot indicates Mastercard is pursuing a dual-track strategy: expanding where stablecoins can be used in settlement while also working on how trust and verification can be communicated in a way that fits traditional compliance expectations.
Still, the pilot’s scope leaves open some important questions. The partners have emphasized credentialing and governance signals, but they have not indicated how quickly these signals could standardize cross-border approvals across different jurisdictions, nor whether the pilot will extend beyond specific participants or networks. Those details will determine whether the program becomes a scalable template or remains a proof-of-concept.
What to watch next in the pilot
Because Mastercard and Borderless have framed the work around assurance signals that can be incorporated into compliance and risk processes, observers should watch for outcomes that reflect real operational integration—not just technical compatibility. Key areas include how participants interpret the governance signals, whether the framework meaningfully reduces the need for repeated due diligence steps, and what governance standards emerge as most effective in lowering cross-border friction.
Another practical factor is whether the credential layer can maintain consistency across counterparties without requiring each party to recreate verification logic. If the pilot succeeds, it could offer a clearer path for stablecoins to fit into existing payment and compliance infrastructures—where trust models are typically built around accountable intermediaries.
For now, the next step is the pilot’s results: how well the assurance and governance signals translate into reduced friction for cross-border stablecoin payments, and whether the approach can be expanded from a controlled test into a broader standard that participants can adopt with confidence.
Europeans have been invited to give their views on the final selection through an online survey which closes Sept. 21. The results will be considered by the Governing Council of the ECB, along with independent jury conclusions and a technical review, before the final design is selected toward the end of 2026.
The new banknotes would then undergo testing before entering circulation, while remaining interchangeable with the current series of euro notes.
According to the ECB, the redesign aims to better reflect Europe’s identity and values, introduce enhanced security features, improve environmental sustainability, and make the banknotes more accessible and easier to use.
As it’s the first major redesign of the euro banknotes since the currency notes were introduced in 2002, the stakes are high.
“Talk to friends, colleagues, family members, and ask them to participate, because we want as many Europeans as possible to express their views about our future banknotes,” said ECB president Christine Lagarde.
When Strategy sold a tiny 32 Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, the market treated it as the top. But a single balance-sheet decision is not necessarily reflecting long-term demand data. The subsequent much larger sale of bitcoin by Strategy was digested more as treasury management than capitulation, interpreting the step as Strategy evolving its long-term treasury strategy from passively HODLing collateral to actively managing it over time. The market initially spent its energy reacting to a press release while the real long-term relevant picture was being written somewhere it was not looking at directly.
Fabian Dori is Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank.
When spot Bitcoin ETFs had their worst month on record for outflows, the coverage read like a wake. Yet at the very same time, long-term holders, the wallets that have held through previous cycles and rarely sell, started buying again, adding into the weakness. The cohort with the best record of timing entries was doing the exact opposite of the institutional money that was selling. The headline audience saw capitulation. The positioning audience saw something closer to opportunity. They were looking at the same market.
Derivatives told the same story earlier in the year. One of the clearest, least ambiguous signals I track is simple: of the 50 largest perpetual futures contracts, how many carry a positive funding rate, the recurring fee traders pay to keep a position open. When that fee is positive, it is the bulls paying to stay long; when it is negative, the bears are paying to stay short. Bitcoin’s funding rate stayed negative for its longest stretch since the aftermath of FTX, yet a meaningful share of those top 50 contracts had quietly flipped positive. Risk appetite was turning up before the price confirmed it. The headline was still “record short streak.” The positioning was already less bearish.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is stalling near $64,000 after two failed pushes at the same ceiling, and both large wallets and long-term holders have started selling into the weakness.
The rollover lands just as two US events with a track record of moving crypto return to the calendar, and history says both tend to hit Bitcoin when it is already soft.
Bitcoin Enters a Weak Month With a Double Top in Play
August has been unkind to Bitcoin. It has closed the month lower in six of the last eight years, so buyers begin from a weak seasonal base.
The chart makes that base look shakier. Bitcoin has formed a double top, a bearish reversal pattern where price fails twice at the same resistance and struggles higher. The two peaks built on comparable volume, which adds weight to the signal.
Sell-side volume has also risen since August 1, pushing the current Bitcoin price toward the lower edge of the range rather than back toward the highs.
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Large holders are pulling back at the same time. Supply held by Bitcoin whales in the 10,000 to 100,000 BTC band peaked on August 3 near 2.26 million BTC, then eased to 2.25 million. The move is small, but it suggests the biggest wallets are trimming rather than adding.
Whale behavior alone does not confirm a trend, so the next question is whether long-term holders agree.
Long-Term Holders Flip From Buyers to Sellers
They appear to. The Hodler Net Position Change, a metric that tracks the net change in supply held by long-term holders, stayed positive through July as those holders added coins. It turned negative in early August.
The shift is sharp. Net selling deepened from about 1,802 BTC on August 2 to roughly 11,472 BTC on August 4, a more than six-fold jump in two days. That points to long-term holders possibly selling into strength rather than holding through it.
With whales and long-term holders leaning the same way, the market now meets two events that have moved Bitcoin hard before.
The Two Events That Have Moved Bitcoin Before
The first is Friday’s US jobs report. It is the same release that helped trigger Bitcoin’s sharp early-August drop in 2024, when a weak print sparked recession fear. Economists expect another soft reading this week, near 80,000 new jobs with unemployment around 4.2%.
Since 2023, Bitcoin has tended to fall on weak labor data.
The second is the Jackson Hole symposium in the final week of August. A hawkish speech there in 2022 helped send Bitcoin below $20,000. For years, a dovish Fed later softened those blows, but that cushion is gone. Kevin Warsh took over as Fed chair in May and has run a hawkish, inflation-first line, with markets now pricing higher-for-longer rather than cuts.
Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech as chair this month, and a market still hoping for relief is exposed to disappointment. That sets up the price chart as the decider.
Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch Before Friday’s Jobs Report
The first line buyers need to defend sits at $61,080. A clean loss of that level would expose $59,500, the last support before the pattern’s neckline.
The neckline runs through the $57,750 to $57,470 zone. A daily close below it would confirm the double top and open a measured move of roughly 14%, which points toward the sub-$50,000 region near $49,700. The 14% drop potential is in line with August 2022’s drop size.
The setup is not confirmed yet. A double top only completes on a neckline break, so a hold above $61,080 keeps the range alive. A reclaim of the $66,930 to $67,230 ceiling that capped both peaks would invalidate the bearish Bitcoin price outlook entirely.
For now, the structure and on-chain flows lean the same way into a hostile macro week. The $57,750 neckline separates a routine August pullback from a 14% slide toward $50,000.
The post Bitcoin Under $50,000? These Two Feared August Events Could Trigger It appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded from Monday’s low of $62,210, retaking $64,000. The flagship cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $64,497 on Tuesday and is currently trading around $64,122.
A close above $65,000 could open the door to a move towards $66,000 and July’s high of $67,975. However, buyers must overcome immediate resistance between $64,000 and $65,000.
Bitcoin Back Above $64,000
Bitcoin (BTC) started the week with a sharp drop, falling to a low of $62,210 as the Coincard exploit, along with prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, pressured an already jittery market. The flagship cryptocurrency recovered from Monday’s low to reach an intraday high of $64,497 on Tuesday, and held above $64,000 during the ongoing session as buyers stepped in. A close above $64,300 could lead to more gains, but macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty is weighing down market sentiment.
The RSI currently sits in neutral territory at 51, while the MACD suggests bulls have a slight advantage. Despite BTC’s impressive recovery this week, it remains in a broader consolidation range spanning between $57,000 and $67,000. While a close above $65,000 is bullish in the short term, a break above $67,000 could hand bulls control.
Bitcoin Tests Descending Channel
On the four-hour chart, BTC tested the upper boundary of a descending channel, briefly pushing higher before dropping back towards $64,000. This price action suggests buyers are unsure about a breakout. Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez stated that a close above $64,300 on the four-hour chart could clear the way for a move towards $65,500-$66,500.
“If you’re bullish on Bitcoin, watch this. $BTC is testing the upper boundary of a descending channel, making $64,300 the key level to watch. A 4-hour close above $64,300 could confirm the breakout and open the door to a rally toward $65,500 or even $66,500.”
The Awesome Oscillator flashed a bullish signal, climbing past 277 and printing rising green bars. However, Bitcoin must absorb the overhead supply to ensure sustained momentum. An order book analysis revealed large sell orders between $64,000 and $65,000, explaining BTC’s inability to extend its gains beyond the current range.
$62,000 In Focus
The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap revealed a substantial concentration of leveraged positions at $62,000 and could come into focus if BTC loses momentum. The heatmap also shows smaller clusters around $63,000 and between $64,500 and $66,000. In a bullish scenario, BTC stays above $63,496 and breaks above the overhead supply zone. Such a scenario could see BTC push above $67,000 and its broader consolidation range. However, if BTC falls below $63,500, it could bring the liquidation cluster at $62,000 into focus. A break below this level could see BTC slip below $61,000.
US-Iran Talks Progress
BTC’s latest recovery began after Qatar confirmed mediators were working to reopen negotiations between the US and Iran. Majed Al-Ansari, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, stated that Doha aims to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz and was working with other regional countries to mediate between Washington and Tehran.
“What matters to us now is the resumption of negotiations, and to achieve this, a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz must be guaranteed.”
Diplomatic efforts have eased concerns about supply chain disruptions. The strait is one of the world’s most important oil supply routes. Reopening the strait could ease strain on crude prices and drive demand for risk assets like BTC.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Following last week’s sharp decline, the US dollar has entered a consolidation phase against most major currencies. At the same time, some instruments, including USD/JPY, are showing a moderate recovery as markets await fresh macroeconomic signals. Today’s key event will be the release of the preliminary ADP private-sector employment report. Forecasts suggest that job growth will slow to 68,000 after 98,000 in the previous month. If the data comes in below expectations, pressure on the dollar could increase as markets price in a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. Conversely, a stronger report could support the US currency ahead of the official US labour market data release.
Additional attention will be focused on US services sector activity indicators. Markets expect the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI to improve to 53.6 points, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is forecast to rise to 54.5. Strong readings could partly offset any weakness in the ADP report and confirm the resilience of the largest sector of the US economy. It is worth noting that market participants traditionally view the ADP report only as an early indicator ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls release. Although the trends in the two reports do not always align, today’s data could significantly influence short-term expectations regarding the health of the US labour market.
USD/JPY
Last week, following the Federal Reserve meeting, USD/JPY declined sharply, losing more than 500 pips over several trading sessions. At the beginning of the current week, after testing the key support level at 155.30, buyers managed to push the pair back towards 158.00, while forming a “doji” candlestick pattern, which may signal a weakening of the bearish momentum. If the price breaks above yesterday’s high, the corrective move could extend towards 158.70–159.40. Weaker US employment data could trigger a renewed downward move.
Key events for USD/JPY:
- Today at 15:15 (GMT+3): ADP change in US non-farm private employment;
- Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US Services PMI;
- Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+3): US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
USD/CAD
Last week, USD/CAD retested the key support level around 1.4000, forming a “bullish harami” pattern after the rebound. Technical analysis of USD/CAD suggests the potential for further recovery towards 1.4130–1.4170. Weaker US economic data, however, could trigger another test of the 1.4000 level.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
- Today at 23:05 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook;
- Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canada Services PMI.
The main drivers for the US dollar today will be the preliminary ADP employment figures and US services sector activity data. If the releases confirm the resilience of the US economy, USD/JPY and USD/CAD could continue their recovery following the dollar’s recent correction. Weaker data, on the other hand, could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy, adding further pressure on the US currency and allowing sellers to regain control. However, investors are likely to draw more definitive conclusions about the labour market after the official Nonfarm Payrolls report is released later this week.
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Galaxy Digital (GLXY) shares are lower by a bit more than 5% in pre-market action after reporting quarterly results.
Galaxy’s $85 million net loss narrowed from $216 million in the first quarter, while its diluted and adjusted loss narrowed to $0.09 per share from $0.49. Street forecasts had been for a loss of $0.28 per share.
Its digital assets operation generated $66 million in adjusted gross profit, up 34% quarter-on-quarter, despite a 7% decline in trading volume.
Galaxy’s data center business generated revenue for the first time in the quarter as the company completed the initial phase of its Helios campus in West Texas.
The segment generated $20 million in adjusted gross profit and $11 million in adjusted EBITDA, reversing a $900,000 adjusted EBITDA loss in the first quarter. Galaxy delivered 200 megawatts of gross power, representing 133 megawatts of critical IT capacity, to CoreWeave under a 15-year lease.
The firm’s results, however, could have disappointed as they did not include a new data-center customer or lease, though Galaxy said it remains in discussions with prospective tenants for another 830 megawatts of approved capacity at Helios.
Crypto World
Ken Griffin’s Citadel posts best month in years after scooping up Situational Awareness stocks
Ken Griffin, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Citadel, speaks during the America Business Forum at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, U.S. Nov. 5, 2025.
Marco Bello | Reuters
Ken Griffin’s Citadel posted strong gains across its major hedge funds in July, helped by a recovery in risk assets and a discounted purchase of assets from the collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness to end the month, according to a person familiar with the firm’s performance.
Citadel’s flagship multistrategy Wellington fund, the firm’s largest, returned 5.9% in July, marking its best monthly performance since 2022 and pushing 2026 gains to 12%, the person said. The tactical trading fund, which combines discretionary equity investing with quantitative strategies, gained 11.1% in July and is up 27% on the year. The equities fund advanced 14.2% last month, bringing 2026 return to 27%. Tactical fund and equities fund both had its best month ever. The person asked not to be identified discussing confidential performance figures.
The July gains came after Citadel acquired the bulk of the public-stock portfolio formerly held by Situational Awareness late last month, following the hedge fund’s rapid unraveling after steep losses triggered margin calls and forced asset sales. Citadel purchased many of the holdings at a significant discount, positioning the firm to benefit as markets rebounded into the month-end.
Situational Awareness, founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, was forced to unwind many of its positions after a sharp reversal in artificial intelligence trades left it bleeding on both sides of its book. The firm had accumulated sizable stakes in AI infrastructure companies while betting against software stocks, a strategy that backfired as software shares rallied and AI hardware names slumped.
Several of the fund’s prime brokers worked to reduce positions in an orderly fashion as Situational Awareness sought to meet margin requirements. Citadel emerged as one of the largest buyers of the portfolio, taking advantage of one of the year’s biggest forced liquidations.
Stocks such as Nebius and Micron that Aschenbrenner’s fund owned rebounded in the final days of July following a brutal month with many traders saying the fund’s near collapse and rescue move by Citadel was a clearing event that caused short sellers to take profits.
Citadel managed about $71 billion in assets as of July 1 and has often used periods of market dislocation to deploy capital into distressed or forced-selling situations.
Citadel declined to comment.
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