Crypto World
Polymarket shelves nuclear detonation markets after outcry
Bettors have long been able to speculate on the chance of a nuclear weapon detonating on Polymarket, but the current conflict with Iran – and scrutiny about insiders trading on war – has apparently caused the platform to remove the contracts.
Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions. pic.twitter.com/r1CbWaLWcw
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) March 3, 2026
The markets, which asked users to assign probabilities to whether a nuclear weapon would detonate by specific dates, have circulated on Polymarket for years and historically have resolved to “No.”
But renewed attention to the contracts comes as prediction markets face criticism after a trader reportedly made more than $400,000 betting on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s ouster shortly before the U.S. operation that led to his capture, raising questions about whether insiders could exploit the platforms to trade on the outbreak of war – such as the start of this current conflict with Iran – and other military actions.
Historical trading suggests the contracts occasionally priced meaningful risk.
A Polymarket contract in 2023 at one point implied roughly a 19% chance that a nuclear weapon would detonate before the end of the year, according to platform data.
A later market expiring in June 2025 traded near 12%.
The markets also attracted significant trading activity. The 2025 contract alone recorded more than $1.7 Million in volume, while the 2023 version drew nearly $700,000 in wagers.
All this comes as U.S. regulators consider how to oversee prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed rules in 2024 that would bar exchanges it regulates from listing event contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, or other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.
Chairman Mike Selig said the Commission plans to issue clearer guidance on prediction markets in the near future.
Social media platform X will suspend creators from its revenue-sharing program for 90 days if they post AI-generated war footage without clearly disclosing that the content was created using artificial intelligence.
On Wednesday, X’s head of product, Nikita Bier, said the rule aims to maintain “authenticity of content on Timeline” during wartime events, when misleading media can spread quickly.
“During times of war, it is critical that people have access to authentic information on the ground,” Bier wrote. “With today’s AI technologies, it is trivial to create content that can mislead people.”
Related: Bitcoin holders show ‘zero panic‘ as BTC hits $70K amid Middle East tensions
The move adds financial penalties to X’s existing moderation tools, linking disclosure of AI-generated media to monetization eligibility.
Monetization enforcement tied to AI disclosure
Unlike traditional moderation measures such as labels or removals, the new rule targets the platform’s creator economy by restricting access to revenue-sharing for policy violations.
X said creators who publish AI-generated conflict footage must clearly disclose that the content was created with artificial intelligence. Failure to do so could lead to a 90-day suspension from the program.
Related: 6 Polymarket traders net $1M on US-Iran strike, spark insider fears: Report
Under the update, posts flagged by Community Notes or detected through metadata or other signals from generative AI tools may trigger enforcement.
Accounts that repeatedly post undisclosed AI-generated conflict videos may face permanent removal from X’s creator revenue-sharing program.
The policy applies specifically to videos depicting armed conflicts and does not amount to a broader ban on AI-generated content posted to the platform.
Middle East conflict raises misinformation concerns
The announcement comes as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate online discussions across social media platforms.
On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to about $63,000 but later recovered. At the time of writing, it traded near $70,000, according to CoinGecko.
AI is also becoming more deeply embedded in modern conflict environments. On March 1, the US military used Anthropic’s Claude AI model to assist with intelligence analysis and targeting during operations linked to the Iran strikes.
Magazine: Bitdeer sells all Bitcoin, Metaplanet rejects misconduct claims: Asia Express
XDC has skyrocketed the most today, followed by ICP and JUP. In contrast, AAVE has lost the most value.
Bitcoin’s price volatility continued in the past 24 hours as the asset slipped below $66,200 at one point, only to rebound and aim at $70,000 once again.
Most altcoins are slightly in the green as well on a daily scale, with ETH challenging $2,000 and BNB tapping $640. SOL is up by over 2% daily.
BTC Aims at $70K Again
It was last Thursday when bitcoin jumped to $70,000 for the first time in over a week, only to be halted and driven south hard. It remained around $68,000 by Friday when it suddenly dumped to under $65,000. Although it had rebounded to $66,000 by Saturday morning, it quickly plunged to $63,000 after the attacks in the Middle East began.
Instead of dumping further as the geopolitical tension began, BTC rebounded strongly to over $68,000 after reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed in the attacks. However, it couldn’t go any higher and dropped to $65,000 by Monday.
Then came an unexpected and rare hourly rally, in which the asset jumped to over $70,000 again in minutes. Another rejection followed, which pushed BTC down to $66,200. More volatility ensued, and the cryptocurrency now trades just under $70,000 again, but some analysts believe there’s a major obstacle in its way.
Its market cap has climbed to almost $1.4 trillion, while its dominance over the alts is up to 57% on CG.
ETH Challenges $2K
Most larger-cap alts have posted more modest gains than BTC in the past day. ETH has climbed to just over $2,000 as of press time, while BNB is up to $640 and remains above XRP in terms of market cap positioning. SOL and BCH are up by 2%, while DOGE, ADA, HYPE, and CC have lost somewhere between 1-3% daily.
AAVE has lost the most value from the larger-cap alts, dropping by 6% to $113. In contrast, XDC has rocketed by 9% and now trades at $0.035. ICP and JUP follow suit.
The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has gained nearly $100 billion since yesterday’s low and is up to $2.440 trillion on CG.
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Ark Invest has added more shares of Coinbase and Robinhood across its exchange-traded funds on Tuesday as crypto equities dipped in response to geopolitical concerns.
Summary
- Ark Invest bought 22,452 Coinbase shares and 158,587 Robinhood shares across its ARKK, ARKW and ARKF exchange-traded funds.
- Coinbase shares were down 1.55% while Robinhood shares had dropped over 3.4%.
The Cathie Wood-led firm has acquired a total of 22,452 shares in Coinbase through its ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF exchange-traded funds. The total investment amounted to a little over $4 million.
On top of this, the company picked up 158,587 shares of Robinhood, with the investment valued at $12.06 million based on the stock’s March 2 closing price of $76.07.
Coinbase shares were down 1.55%, while Robinhood stock had also dipped by over 3.4%. Crypto-linked equities have been pressured over the past few sessions as shareholders reacted to growing concerns surrounding the U.S.-Iran war.
Major cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also felt the pressure of the recent selloff and remain suppressed below key resistance levels. Recent breakout attempts for both assets have failed as capital remains sidelined.
Ark Invest, however, has capitalized on these recent dips by continually rebalancing its portfolio and, on many occasions, increasing its exposure to several crypto-facing companies.
As previously reported by crypto.news, the company added over $32 million worth of Robinhood shares across two of its exchange-traded funds earlier this month. Around the same time, the company also acquired positions in Coinbase, alongside crypto exchange Bullish and stablecoin issuer Circle.
After the latest purchase, Coinbase and Robinhood are the company’s sixth and seventh-largest holdings within its ARKK fund as of March 4. Meanwhile Robhinhood stands as the fifth-largest holding within the ARKW fund, and Coinbase stands at the eighth position.
Ark’s investment strategy limits any individual holding to about 10% of a fund’s portfolio. Coinbase and Robinhood stocks currently account for between 3% and 6% across its ETFs.
XRP price is close to confirming a breakout from a multi-week descending trendline that could potentially kickstart an uptrend over the coming sessions.
Summary
- XRP price has fallen 43% from its yearly high amid a sector-wide downturn.
- XRP is close to breaking above a descending trendline resistance on the daily chart.
XRP (XRP) price has dropped nearly 17% from mid-February and nearly 43% from its year-to-date high of $2.39.
XRP has mirrored Bitcoin’s recent move lower, as the bellwether slipped beneath several key support levels while investor appetite for risk assets remained subdued amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
XRP price has also been in a downtrend as funding rates softened, while the forced unwinding of leveraged long positions accelerated the drop beyond what spot selling alone would have caused.
The lack of institutional inflows since the beginning of this year also played a part in dampening investor demand for the token this year. SoSoValue data shows that the U.S. spot XRP ETFs drew in $88 million over the past three months, far under the $1.16 billion recorded in the November to December period.
On the daily chart, XRP price is close to breaking out from a descending trendline that has been acting as a dynamic resistance level since early January. A successful breakout from the pattern has historically been followed by significant bullish momentum.
At press time, XRP price was trading at $1.36, close to breaking out of the pattern. Notably, $1.36 also marks the bottom of the trading range in Murrey Math lines. The line is considered a key support level for price reversals.
A breakout from this key psychological level could trigger a sharp rally to $1.75, where the top of the trading range for Murrey lines lies, or even to the strong pivot reverse point at $1.95.
On the contrary, failure to break the resistance could extend the downtrend over the coming weeks, potentially towards the strong pivot reverse of the Murrey lines at $1.17, where bulls could look to re-establish a floor.
Nevertheless, concerns tied to the situation in the Middle East remain a key factor weighing on risk appetite at the moment. Although the volatility seen over the weekend has eased somewhat over the past 48 hours, traders are still likely to stay cautious until clearer signs of de-escalation begin to emerge.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
The US military strike on Iran over the weekend intensified global tensions and investor anxiety. Yet, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that it also highlighted the important role of crypto and on-chain markets.
With major stock exchanges closed, on-chain markets stepped in as the primary venue for global price discovery.
US Strike on Iran Exposed a Structural Gap That Only Crypto Markets Could Fill
In a recent memo titled “The Weekend That Changed Finance,” Hougan noted that when President Trump announced a military strike on Iran at 2:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, global markets were closed. Stocks, futures, forex, and exchanges across Europe and Asia had all gone dark for the weekend.
The only traditional markets still running were small Middle Eastern exchanges in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Hougan suggested that on-chain markets were the only venues that responded in real time. Thus, they filled a structural void left by closed traditional exchanges.
“In years past, if a major geopolitical shock hit on a Sunday morning, investors would wait until the U.S. futures markets opened at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday to find out what the impact would be. But as this weekend showed, they now have an alternative: They can turn to crypto-based rails, which trade 24/7/365, globally. And this weekend, they did,” he said.
BeInCrypto also reported that the impact of the attacks was quickly evident in the crypto market, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping on the news. According to Hougan, for most of that Sunday, “on-chain finance was the center of the financial world.”
He noted that Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual exchange, became a “focus.” Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 decentralized exchanges allowed traders to trade synthetic perpetual futures contracts tied to traditional assets.
BeInCrypto reported that HIP-3’s open interest exceeded $1 billion. Overall, the platform saw over $11.5 billion in trading volume across Saturday and Sunday, according to DeFiLlama data.
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Meanwhile, tokenized gold also drew a rush of investor interest. Tether’s XAUT logged more than $300 million in 24-hour trading volume as demand spiked. At the same time, activity on Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket also surged.
“Sunday’s attacks put the spotlight on markets that never close. Don’t expect traders to forget it,” Hougan remarked.”It was the first time I remember crypto-enabled markets being ‘the market,’ full stop.”
The executive also shared that the weekend’s activity has prompted him to lower his projection of when finance would move on-chain.
“I thought that crypto-enabled markets would grow up along the edges—that, for the next 5-10 years, they would mostly serve crypto natives and others who don’t fit cleanly into the traditional financial system…The shift to onchain finance is inevitable. After this weekend, I’m convinced that shift is coming sooner than any of us had imagined,” he mentioned.
Hougan, in his analysis, also wrote that hedge funds, banks, or any other investors must now adapt to compete in global, real-time markets.
“If you are a hedge fund, bank, or any other investor who wants to trade competitively, you no longer have a choice: You have to set up a stablecoin wallet and learn how to trade on Hyperliquid. You need to understand XAUT. You need to read about tokenized stocks. Because even if you don’t, everyone else will,” he claimed.
Thus, the weekend of the US-Iran strikes showed that always-on financial markets may be moving from the margins to the mainstream, and investors are now paying attention.
The Core Team also indicated that the next big step should be completed by PiDay.
Just a few weeks after going to protocol version 19.6, the Core Team has announced the completion of the subsequent upgrade, which is now one step away from v20.
Aside from going into detail on what those Pi updates might indicate for the community, we will check the latest price action from the underlying token in this article.
V19.9 Is Here
CryptoPotato reported on February 21 that the protocol v19.6 migration was successfully completed, which meant that v19.9 is the last one left before v20. Hours ago, the team took it to X to indicate that the 19.9 migration is officially completed as well, and all eyes have now turned to v20.2. According to the team, it could be done by March 14 – the day known as PiDay in the Pi Network community.
Network Update: Protocol v19.9 migration successfully completed. Next up is v20.2 — Aiming to complete before Pi Day 2026. Node operators should make sure they’re upgraded and stay tuned for further instructions: https://t.co/mnbwVzhaD9
— Pi Network (@PiCoreTeam) March 4, 2026
As with all previous updates on the protocol front, the team reminded that all node operators have to ensure they have upgraded to the current version; otherwise, they risk being disconnected from the network.
The explanatory blog post from the team noted once again that Pi Nodes are the “fourth role” in the Pi ecosystem. They have to run on laptops and desktops instead of mobile phones. While there are some similarities with other blockchain networks, such as having the same responsibilities in terms of validating transactions, there are also several key differences:
“Unlike most other crypto projects, the Pi Node will continue to follow the philosophy of user-centric design. Instead of requiring deep technical knowledge to set up a node, everyday people will be able to do that by installing a desktop application on their computers. Through this computer application, Pioneers can switch the node software on/off to make their devices available/unavailable for serving as a node.”
PI Price Update
After bottoming out at $0.1312 on February 11, which became the latest all-time low, Pi Network’s native token began a strong rebound that drove it to over $0.20 at one point days later. However, it was stopped there, and the market volatility brought it south to under $0.16 by the end of the month.
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Nevertheless, it reacted well and now sits above $0.172, which means a 12% monthly increase. PiScan data shows a somewhat worrying trend for the next couple of weeks in terms of daily token unlocks. Although the average number is at 6.8 million for the next month, there are a few days with over 15 million. March 7 will see the most unlocks, with almost 21 million tokens set to be released.
These unlocks do not guarantee sell-offs, but increase the chances for a price correction, as many investors have been waiting for years for their assets.
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.
South Korean police have arrested a series of individuals believed to be acting as hired agents committing what authorities describe as “private revenge” attacks, which have involved vandalism and threatening behavior directed at private residences.
Summary
- Multiple suspects in “private revenge” vandalism have been arrested by police in Gyeonggi Province.
- Investigators say the suspects were paid in cryptocurrency and acted on instructions via Telegram.
- Police are pursuing higher-level coordinators as part of the ongoing investigation.
South Korean police arrest agents in series of “private revenge” vandalism cases
According to reports, the most recent arrest was carried out on March 1 by the Suwon District Court, which issued a warrant for a man in his 20s identified only as Im on charges of property damage and criminal trespass.
Prosecutors allege that on the evening of February 22, the suspect entered an apartment building in Dongtan New City, Gyeonggi Province, where he allegedly sprayed red lacquer on the front door of a resident’s home and scattered trash on the floor.
Police say the suspect also distributed dozens of leaflets defaming the alleged victim and broadcasted excrement at the scene.
Police say they are pursuing leads on the person or network believed to have instructed the group through the encrypted messaging app Telegram, suggesting an organized effort behind the vandalism. All of the suspects arrested so far reportedly told investigators that they were paid between 500,000 and 1,000,000 won (about $380 – $760) in cryptocurrency for carrying out the acts.
Earlier arrests include another man in his 20s detained after entering a multi-family home in Sanbon-dong, Gunpo City on February 24 and spraying the front door with lacquer while leaving threatening materials.
Prosecutors said the suspect’s behavior and materials suggested coordination with others giving instructions.
Authorities are also reviewing a December incident in Pyeongtaek involving similar criminal behavior. Police have linked that case and the recent ones to overlapping methods and are continuing to investigate possible connections and higher-level coordinators.
Officials say the crimes illustrate how social media and encrypted platforms can be misused to organize and incentivize harassment, and they have pledged to track down those orchestrating the campaign.
Ethereum (ETH) has traded sideways around $2,000 since the beginning of the year. This price action has strengthened accumulation sentiment and encouraged investors to store assets off exchanges. The latest data shows multiple new records in ETH withdrawals, reflecting investor confidence in the asset.
Meanwhile, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has called for building Ethereum into a comprehensive sanctuary technology ecosystem amid rising geopolitical instability.
Investors Withdraw Over 31 Million ETH From Exchanges in the Past Month
According to a report from Lookonchain, the wallet address gammafund.eth withdrew 9,000 ETH ($17.86 million) from Binance today.
Earlier, on March 2, BitMine executed a significant acquisition. The firm purchased 50,992.8 ETH, increasing its total holdings to 3.71% of Ethereum’s total supply.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that ETH withdrawals from exchanges reached approximately 31.6 million ETH in February. This marked the highest level since November last year.
Among exchanges, Binance led with around 14.45 million ETH withdrawn, accounting for nearly half of the total outflows. Other exchanges such as OKX (3.83 million ETH) and Kraken (1.04 million ETH) also recorded significant outflows.
This trend has continued into early March. It reflects investor behavior of moving assets away from centralized exchanges. Investors appear to expect ETH to rise in the medium- to long-term. As a result, they prefer holding ETH in private wallets rather than keeping it on exchanges.
The wave of ETH withdrawals has occurred while ETH fluctuates around $2,000. The price remains 60% below last year’s peak.
“When such movements coincide with sensitive price levels, they may reflect either increased long-term holding conviction or a strategic reallocation of positions,” commented analyst Arab Chain.
As a result of this withdrawal wave, ETH exchange reserves fell to a record low in March, according to CryptoQuant.
The chart shows that since the beginning of the year, ETH balances on exchanges have declined from 16.8 million ETH to 15.9 million ETH. The reserves reached an all-time low on March 2.
Recent escalations in military conflicts have not triggered any panic selling. Instead, investors appear to have responded in the opposite direction. They have accumulated even more aggressively.
Vitalik Buterin Calls for Building “Sanctuary Technologies” for Ethereum
In his latest post, Vitalik Buterin emphasized the current global context. He pointed to increasing government and corporate control and surveillance, ongoing wars, and the concentration of power.
In that context, he stated that Ethereum has not yet made a meaningful contribution to improving people’s real lives.
He proposed that Ethereum position itself within an ecosystem that builds what he calls “sanctuary technologies.”
He explained that these technologies should be free and open source. They should help people live, work, communicate, manage risks and assets, and cooperate toward shared goals. They should remain sustainable under external pressures, such as those from governments, corporations, and censorship. The ultimate goal is to reduce the severity of power conflicts and prevent systems from being weaponized.
His vision may still be distant. However, following the early March test, investors are currently betting on ETH as an asset they want to hold during instability. They are willing to tolerate unrealized losses to maintain their positions.
Meanwhile, another analyst explained where’s bitcoin most likely bottom.
Bitcoin’s price went through some intense volatility in the past week or so, especially since the attacks between Israel and the USA on one side, and Iran, on the other began on Saturday morning. Within this timeframe, the asset tried to reclaim the coveted $70,000 level on a couple of occasions, but to no avail.
The last such example was on Monday when it skyrocketed by $5,000 in minutes, going from $65,200 to $70,150. However, the bears intercepted the move and pushed the cryptocurrency to under $66,400.
Although it has recovered some ground and is close to $69,000 as of press time, popular analyst CW believes there’s a massive obstacle in its path.
Citing data from Coinglass, they indicated that bitcoin whales are forming sell orders at just over the current levels, which is “holding down the price.” Bitcoin could move higher “when these sell orders disappear,” they added.
$BTC whales are forming sell orders and holding down the price.
When these sell orders disappear, the next move will occur. pic.twitter.com/RsLIajaxpM
— CW (@CW8900) March 4, 2026
Fellow analyst Ali Martinez also weighed in on BTC’s recent performance, and more specifically on its expected bottom during this bear cycle. He noted that the asset has historically bottomed somewhere between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands.
The Market Value to Realized Value Metric is calculated by dividing the former by the latter. Higher levels typically mean that the underlying asset could be overvalued, and vice versa.
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If history is any indication, bitcoin’s bottom might not be in yet. Instead, Martinez’s graph shows that it could be somewhere between $43,600 and $54,500.
Over the past decade, Bitcoin $BTC has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands. pic.twitter.com/bETaOvRPNN
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 4, 2026
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Crypto World
Ray Dalio says ‘there is only one gold’ even as bitcoin holds up better during Iran crisis
Ray Dalio picked an interesting week to trash bitcoin.
The Bridgewater Associates founder said on the popular All-In Podcast on Tuesday that investors should stop comparing bitcoin to gold, arguing that the largest cryptocurrency lacks central bank support, has no privacy, and faces long-term threats from quantum computing.
“There is only one gold,” Dalio said. “Gold is the most established money” and the second-largest reserve currency held by central banks.
The timing undermined the thesis, however. On the day Dalio made those comments, gold dropped $168 to $5,128, a 3% decline, while bitcoin fell just 0.7% to $68,700. Five days into the U.S.-Iran war, the asset Dalio prefers was getting hit harder by exactly the kind of crisis he says it’s supposed to protect against.
The decoupling isn’t new. Bitcoin and gold moved together from July through early October, until the broader crypto crash in October wiped out $20 billion in leveraged positions. Since then the two assets have gone in opposite directions. Bitcoin is down over 45% from its October peak. Gold rallied 30% to over $5,100 in the same period.
Gold spiked on Saturday’s initial strikes, then gave back those gains as the conflict widened and oil disruption became the dominant concern. Bitcoin sold off on Saturday, bounced on Sunday after Iran supreme leader Khamenei’s death, got rejected at $70,000 on Tuesday, and has since settled in the mid-$67,000s.
That shows neither asset has fully operated as a safe haven this week. Both have been volatile. Bitcoin has just been less volatile, which isn’t the outcome Dalio’s framework predicts.
Dalio’s specific criticisms aren’t new either. He flagged bitcoin’s transparency, noting that “any transaction can be monitored and directly, perhaps, controlled.” He questioned whether central banks would ever accumulate an asset that runs on a public ledger. And he raised quantum computing as a longer-term existential risk.
He’s not entirely bearish. Dalio holds roughly 1% of his portfolio in bitcoin for diversification and recommended a 15% allocation to bitcoin or gold in July, calling it the “best return-to-risk ratio” given America’s debt trajectory.
Dalio warned last month that the “World Order” led by the U.S. had “broken down” and that investors needed to rethink how they protect wealth. Whether gold is still the only prescription is the part the market is actively debating, and this week’s price action hasn’t made his case any easier to make.
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