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Polymarket Traders Profit $37K From Paris Weather Glitch

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Polymarket Traders Profit $37K From Paris Weather Glitch

Two Polymarket accounts have attracted suspicion after making $37,000 betting correctly on two unusual temperature readings of a weather station located in a major airport in France.

The two weather-focused prediction markets focused on the highest temperature in Paris on April 6 and 15, using the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius, according to Polymarket.

French media outlet BFMTV reported on Monday that the temperature suddenly climbed to over 21 degrees Celsius on April 6, before dropping again immediately. The market resolved with the winner taking over $16,000. The winning account is under 30 days old.

Meanwhile, blockchain analytics tool Bubblemaps reported a similar glitch for the April 15 market. The weather station showed 18 degrees Celsius most of the day, then suddenly spiked to 22 degrees Celsius before dropping back.

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Some have questioned whether foul play was involved. Prediction markets are already facing growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws.

Source: Bubble Maps

“That spike didn’t show on nearby stations,” Bubblemaps analysts said, adding that “Just before the spike, one trader started buying NO shares on 18°C,” before exiting with over $21,000.

The winning trader account has been highly active on Polymarket with wagers on crypto and weather. However, this is the largest payout by a wide margin; the next-highest is $13.

Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist, told BFMTV the temperature glitch was unlikely to be a natural event and alleged it may have been tampered with on-site.

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Related: Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities are eying prediction markets

“Such temperature variations seem very unlikely, especially on these two dates, and over such a short period. We can imagine that an individual with a good understanding of how the sensors work intervened, resulting in temperatures rising by two degrees at the right time, to validate a bet,” he added.

Météo France, the official government weather agency of France, has reportedly made a complaint with the police unit the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade, for alleged tampering with the operation of its automated data processing systems.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

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Jane Street seeks to dismiss Terraform’s insider-trading suit

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Crypto Breaking News

Jane Street Group LLC, a prominent quantitative trading firm, has moved to dismiss a lawsuit brought by the administrator of Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy estate. In a Manhattan federal court filing on Thursday, the firm urged the court to throw out the case, which accuses Jane Street of insider trading that allegedly worsened the Terra ecosystem’s collapse.

The motion frames Terraform’s complaint as an attempt to recover funds from Jane Street to cover a fraud Terraform allegedly perpetrated on the market. The filing argues that Terraform’s claims rest on a mischaracterization of the firm’s trading activity and that any alleged wrongdoing by Terraform itself has already been prosecuted and resolved.

Terraform’s court-appointed administrator, Todd Snyder, filed the lawsuit in February, naming Jane Street, Terra founder Do Kwon’s associates, and two Terraform employees. The complaint accuses the trading firm of acting on material nonpublic information from Terraform insiders to profit from Terra-related tokens as the project unraveled.

In their motion to dismiss, Jane Street’s lawyers contend that the firm’s Terra-linked trades were motivated by ordinary market signals and public information, not any nonpublic tips. The court papers emphasize that Terraform’s collapse became widely visible to investors as the market pricing deteriorated, and that Jane Street acted to sell a deteriorating investment during the downturn.

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The filing also notes that Terraform’s own representatives have publicly linked the collapse to ongoing market dynamics, arguing that the timing of Jane Street’s TerraUSD sales does not align with any disclosed material nonpublic information. The motion points to Terra’s transition to a new liquidity pool in early May 2022 and asserts that Terraform failed to identify any specific nonpublic information that Jane Street allegedly learned, despite extensive pre-suit discovery.

For context, Terraform’s dramatic downfall occurred in May 2022 when its algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD briefly lost its peg to the U.S. dollar, triggering a broader crash in the Terra ecosystem. The implosion sent the price of Luna token sharply lower and erased roughly $40 billion in market value, a specter that still shapes regulatory and legal scrutiny of crypto markets.

Jane Street’s submission argues that the fundamental questions about Terra’s collapse—and who bears responsibility—had already been addressed through criminal prosecutions. The motion points to the guilty pleas of Do Kwon on conspiracy and wire fraud charges, which culminated in a 15-year prison sentence, as evidence that the broader fraud narrative has been adjudicated by the courts.

On the factual point at the heart of the case—the timing of Terra-related trades—the motion asserts that Terraform’s complaint is self-defeating. It notes that Terraform claimed Jane Street’s largest TerraUSD sale occurred roughly 10 minutes after “material nonpublic information” allegedly became visible to the market, a sequence the filing says is inconsistent with the asserted information flow and timing. Jane Street also contends that Terraform failed to identify any specific nonpublic information the firm allegedly obtained, despite pre-suit discovery efforts.

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The motion requests that the court dismiss the suit with prejudice, meaning Terraform could not refile a claim against Jane Street on the same grounds in the future. Court filings offer a window into the procedural chess game unfolding as the parties navigate whether crypto market activity can be treated the same as traditional securities markets in insider-trading disputes.

As the litigation unfolds, the dispute raises broader questions about how insider trading claims will be treated in the relatively uncharted territory of crypto markets. The case pits a well-resourced market-maker against a bankruptcy administrator aiming to recover value for Terra creditors. The outcome could influence how other market participants respond to similar allegations in the wake of high-profile collapses.

In addition to the core claims against Jane Street, the lawsuit named Terra’s co-founder and individuals connected to the project. The legal maneuvering reflects a broader pattern in which investors and authorities scrutinize trading activity around controversial crypto events, especially those tied to failed guarantees, liquidity shifts, or ecosystem transitions. The balance between public information and alleged nonpublic tips remains central to the legal debate.

Observers will be watching closely to see how the judge weighs the timing of Terra-related disclosures against the process by which nonpublic information might circulate in crypto markets. The court’s ruling could provide a blueprint for how similar insider-trading theories are evaluated when the assets in question are algorithmic stablecoins, cross-chain tokens, or other crypto instruments that lack traditional centralized disclosure regimes.

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For now, the case sits at a crossroads of market behavior, regulatory scrutiny, and the evolving standard for what constitutes actionable insider information in crypto markets. The docket remains active, and future filings will likely shed additional light on how the courts interpret these complex dynamics as crypto trading continues to mature into a regulated, litigated landscape.

Readers watching this case should note the docket referenced in the motion, which is publicly accessible. The filing material can be reviewed in the docket entry for Snyder v. Jane Street Group LLC on CourtListener: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72321910/29/snyder-v-jane-street-group-llc/

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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DeepSeek Unveils V4: The Latest Open-Source AI Model Challenging Big Tech Giants

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • DeepSeek unveiled two open-source AI models: V4-Pro (1.6 trillion parameters) and V4-Flash (284 billion parameters)
  • Each model features a 1-million-token context window, rivaling Google’s Gemini capabilities
  • V4-Pro achieves performance comparable to OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 in coding tests and ranks second only to Gemini in reasoning tasks
  • The company emphasizes significantly lower computational and memory requirements versus competitors
  • News arrives amid reports of Tencent and Alibaba negotiating investment deals valuing DeepSeek above $20 billion

Chinese artificial intelligence firm DeepSeek unveiled preview editions of its newest flagship open-source AI system, V4, this past Friday. According to the company, this latest iteration delivers enhanced reasoning capabilities, cost efficiency, and an exceptionally large context processing capacity.

The firm introduced two distinct variants: V4-Pro and V4-Flash. The Pro edition features 1.6 trillion parameters, while the Flash variant represents a streamlined alternative containing 284 billion parameters, engineered for superior efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Each variant supports processing up to one million tokens simultaneously. This capability enables them to analyze substantial volumes of text in a single operation, positioning them competitively alongside Google’s Gemini in this dimension.

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The company noted that current models handle text exclusively. DeepSeek confirmed development is underway to incorporate multimodal functionality, which will enable future versions to analyze images and video content.

Performance Against Competing Systems

In MMLU-Pro testing, a standard industry benchmark, V4-Pro delivered results equivalent to OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Performance placed it marginally below Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6. For reasoning benchmarks specifically, V4-Pro secured second place behind only the most recent Gemini release.

DeepSeek highlighted that V4 has been fine-tuned for integration with AI agent frameworks including Claude Code, OpenCode, and CodeBuddy.

The organization characterized V4’s context capacity as “world leading with drastically reduced compute and memory costs.” Industry analyst Zhang Yi identified it as an “inflection point,” suggesting ultra-long context capabilities could transition from experimental research environments into mainstream commercial applications.

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AI industry expert Max Liu characterized the launch as a “milestone” for China’s artificial intelligence sector, drawing parallels to the market impact when DeepSeek’s R1 initially debuted.

Financial and Strategic Landscape

This marks DeepSeek’s first significant new-generation model launch since R1 emerged in early 2025. That previous release sent ripples through global technology markets, affecting companies like Nvidia and Meta, by demonstrating that an economical, efficient model could rival expensive proprietary alternatives.

DeepSeek has not disclosed which semiconductor chips powered V4’s training process. Earlier in the year, U.S. authorities alleged the company utilized restricted Nvidia Blackwell chips. Subsequently, a report from The Information indicated training occurred on Huawei chips instead.

Huawei verified that its Ascend supernode infrastructure, utilizing Ascend 950 AI processors, would provide complete support for DeepSeek’s V4 systems.

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The model debut follows closely after reports emerged that Tencent and Alibaba are pursuing investment discussions with DeepSeek at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. DeepSeek ranks among China’s six premier AI unicorn companies.

A preview build of V4 is currently accessible through Hugging Face. DeepSeek has not yet specified a timeline for the complete public release.

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BTC price steady near $77,500 as derivatives signal cooling momentum, cautious sentiment

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BTC price steady near $77,500 as derivatives signal cooling momentum, cautious sentiment

Crypto volatility cooled on Friday, with bitcoin stuck between $77,500 and $78,500 range since midnight UTC.

The muted price action follows a failed breakout attempt near $80,000 on Wednesday, although the broader trend remains constructive, with the BTC price grinding higher through April and printing a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Ether (ETH) matched bitcoin’s performance on Friday, losing around 0.9% since midnight while also remaining in a narrow trading range.

U.S. stock futures were mixed, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.5% on the back of strong tech earnings and S&P 500 futures slipping 3 basis points.

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The Dollar Index (DXY) was little changed despite comments from U.S. President Donald Trump confirming that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been extended by three weeks. The dollar fell roughly 0.5% when the ceasefire was first announced on April 16.

Derivatives positioning

  • Bitcoin futures open interest has declined by over 6% to 744.3K BTC in 24 hours, as the rally in spot price pulls back to $77,500 after failing to hit $80,000 early this week. The moves suggest traders are unwinding leveraged positions and that bullish momentum is cooling in the near term.
  • BTC’s 24-hour open interest–adjusted cumulative volume delta has flipped negative, meaning sellers are hitting the bid more than buyers are lifting the ask over the period. Annualized perpetual funding rates remain slightly negative, indicating dominance of bearish short positions.
  • Futures tied to other major cryptocurrencies, such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP), have seen lackluster trading over the past 24 hours.
  • Privacy-focused zcash (ZEC), however, stands out. Open interest in its futures has climbed nearly 7.5% to a 10-day high of 1.88 million tokens, while 24-hour trading volume has surged 80%.
  • The token also boasts one of the strongest positive CVD readings alongside positive funding rates, indicating sustained aggressive buying interest and bullish positioning overall.
  • While BTC and ETH prices have come under pressure, investors likely see it as a brief pause in the rally. That’s evident from the continued slide in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV. It has dropped to 42%, the lowest since Jan. 31. ETH’s index has dipped below 65%, also the lowest since Feb. 1.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin and ether risk reversals continue to show a bias for put options across all time frames. It shows persistent downside hedging by market players and upside volatility selling via covered calls.

Token talk

  • The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) was the only benchmark in the black on Friday, posting a gain of less than 0.2% while the DeFi Select Index (DFX) and Computing Select Index (CPUS) lost about 1% each.
  • DeFi tokens lido (LDO) and led the sector’s losses, falling by between 3% and 3.8% since midnight UTC as sentiment continues to suffer following last weekend’s $290 million KelpDAO exploit.
  • Privacy coin zcash (ZEC) gave back 0.5% of its gains on Friday, but remains up by more than 7% over the past 24 hours, buoyed by Thursday’s listing on popular retail trading app Robinhood.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index ticked back up to 39/100 on Friday as investors began to make speculative bets while bitcoin remained range-bound.

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Michael Saylor says BTC winter is over. Market analyst disagrees, says bitcoin was in a pullback

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Michael Saylor says BTC winter is over. Market analyst disagrees, says bitcoin was in a pullback

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin , said Thursday on X that the crypto winter is over as bitcoin held above $78,000, a price level first reached early on April 22, according to CoinDesk data.

In a Game of Thrones-style image, dressed in a fur coat, a garment not particularly suited for when the winter is over, and mounted on a horse, Saylor, whose firm recently added 13,927 bitcoin, bringing its treasury’s total BTC holdings to 780,897, said “Winter’s over”, a statement not all crypto analysts agree with.

“Even if the winter is over for bitcoin, which I don’t agree with, it is still very cold for altcoins,” said Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and AdLunam co-founder.

For Mati Greenspan, a former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics, what bitcoin and the broader crypto market have experienced since the Oct. 10 “flash crash”, which triggered roughly $19 billion in forced liquidations within 24 hours, does not even qualify as a crypto winter.

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“I’m not sure I would classify what we just saw as a crypto winter exactly,” Greenspan said, it was “more of a large pullback within a broader bull market.”

Greenspan agrees, however, with what Saylor appears to be suggesting: Bitcoin has reached its bottom and is likely to head higher from here. “Yes, I think it is very likely that we have seen the bottom,” he said.

Greenspan and other experts say that Saylor’s comments, along with his firm’s ongoing bitcoin purchases, suggest a transition into a more permanent institutional bitcoin era. A new cycle characterized by market dominance of corporate bitcoin treasuries and a shift in institutional sentiment.

Nation-state adoption

Even so, institutional adoption is just one piece of the puzzle.

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“Yes, increased institutional adoption will kick off this next leg, but what Saylor is missing is the nation-state adoption, which is undoubtedly right around the corner,” Greenspan said.

The crypto founder and market analyst said that, to date, the crypto industry has experienced three distinct adoption cycles.

The first, he said, was driven by early adopters in 2013. And then came the “mass retail awakening of 2017,” and, now, institutional adoption in 2021.

“The fourth and final major driver is nation-state adoption, which I believe will happen very soon, especially with the U.S. abruptly flipping course during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term,” Greenspan said.

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“Imagine central banks adding bitcoin to their balance sheets to maintain price stability, similar to how they’ve added gold in the past,” he added.

To Greenspan’s point, nation-state adoption is already moving beyond theory and onto government balance sheets. Under Trump, for example, the U.S. plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve, though it is neither formalized nor operational; the government already holds roughly 300,000 BTC. El Salvador continues its daily purchase program toward a 7,500 BTC treasury, while China and the U.K. hold roughly 190,000 BTC and 61,000 BTC, respectively. Activity is also emerging at the sub-sovereign level, with entities such as Wisconsin and New Jersey introducing bitcoin exposure within public pension allocations.

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Wedbush Initiates Oracle (ORCL) Coverage With Bullish Outlook on AI Cloud Growth

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ORCL Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Wedbush initiated Oracle with an Outperform rating Friday, sending shares up 2% in premarket activity
  • The firm’s $225 price target contrasts with Oracle’s current trading level near $176
  • Analyst argues Wall Street misunderstands Oracle’s capital expenditure as primarily contract-backed AI spending
  • The company’s multi-cloud database business exploded 531% annually in its third fiscal quarter of 2026
  • Analyst consensus stands at Strong Buy with a $244.89 average price objective

Shares of Oracle experienced a 2% lift in Friday’s pre-market session following Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives’ initiation of coverage with an Outperform designation and $225 price objective.


ORCL Stock Card
Oracle Corporation, ORCL

Ives has established himself as a closely-watched voice in technology sector analysis, and his positioning on Oracle is generating renewed investor interest in a name that’s declined 37.4% across the last half-year.

Oracle is currently changing hands around $176.28. The Wedbush projection suggests approximately 28% appreciation potential from present levels. Wall Street’s collective view skews even more optimistic, with the consensus target landing at $244.89.

The fundamental thesis behind Wedbush’s stance is straightforward: investors are misjudging Oracle’s true position.

According to Ives, while Oracle’s aggressive infrastructure investments appear risky at first glance, the substantial majority connects directly to secured AI agreements — indicating demand-backed deployment rather than speculative buildout.

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OCI Emerges as Strategic Differentiator

Central to the optimistic outlook is Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, commonly known as OCI. Wedbush highlights that OCI’s streamlined network architecture provides meaningful advantages for artificial intelligence applications, enabling superior speed and reduced latency compared to legacy cloud platforms.

This architectural advantage becomes critically important during large-scale AI model training, where computational efficiency and throughput directly influence both economics and results.

Oracle is simultaneously advancing its “AI for Data” initiative, centered on the Oracle AI Database 26ai offering. The strategy focuses on enabling enterprises to integrate AI capabilities directly with their proprietary data repositories — a pragmatic application that could accelerate widespread enterprise adoption.

Multi-Cloud Strategy Delivers Explosive Results

The multi-cloud performance metrics are particularly striking. Oracle reported 531% year-over-year expansion in multi-cloud database revenue during its fiscal 2026 third quarter.

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This remarkable growth stems from Oracle’s strategy of deploying its database solutions within competing cloud environments — including Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud. Instead of competing head-to-head, Oracle is positioning itself as critical infrastructure within rival platforms.

The company recently unveiled an enhanced collaboration with Google Cloud, introducing the Oracle AI Database Agent for Gemini Enterprise. This integration enables users to interact with Oracle databases through conversational language interfaces.

A parallel AWS initiative is also underway, focused on strengthening inter-cloud connectivity capabilities.

These strategic alliances provide context for the extraordinary multi-cloud revenue acceleration. Oracle is establishing itself as essential infrastructure that even competitors rely upon.

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Wedbush’s perspective positions Oracle as evolving beyond its legacy database company identity toward becoming a fundamental component of AI infrastructure. Ives contends the current stock valuation hasn’t caught up with this transformation.

Across the trailing twelve-month period, Oracle produced $64.1 billion in revenue, representing 14.9% growth. The enterprise currently maintains a market capitalization approaching $507 billion.

The broader analyst community shares this constructive perspective. Oracle carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, derived from 27 Buy recommendations and six Hold ratings issued during the most recent three-month period.

The $244.89 average analyst price target indicates potential appreciation of approximately 39% from current trading levels.

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Wisconsin sues Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, calls prediction markets illegal bets

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Wisconsin sues Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, calls prediction markets illegal bets

Wisconsin has escalated its challenge against prediction market platforms, widening a legal fight already taking shape across several U.S. states over how these products should be classified.

Summary

  • Wisconsin filed complaints against Crypto.com, Polymarket, and Kalshi, along with Robinhood and Coinbase, alleging their prediction markets function as unlicensed gambling platforms.
  • State prosecutors argue that event contracts tied to outcomes such as NCAA tournament games meet the legal definition of a bet, with fixed payouts for correct predictions.

Fresh complaints filed in Dane County name Crypto.com and its derivatives arm, Polymarket, and Kalshi, alongside distribution partners Robinhood and Coinbase. Prosecutors argue the platforms enable event-based wagering for residents, including contracts tied to sports outcomes.

At the core of the filings sits a simple claim. Users pay to take positions on real-world events and receive fixed payouts if correct. 

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Wisconsin says that the structure fits its legal definition of a bet. Contracts linked to NCAA tournament games are cited as one example, where positions trade at probability-based prices and settle at $1 or $0 depending on the result.

Marketing language has been pulled into the case as supporting evidence. Kalshi’s promotional material described it as “The First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform,” while Polymarket has referred to itself as a place where users can bet on future events. 

Attorney General Josh Kaul addressed that framing directly, stating, “Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful.”

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Meanwhile, these platforms collect transaction fees on each contract, a structure prosecutors compare to a casino taking a cut from wagers placed on its floor.

Federal and state fight over control deepens

Wisconsin’s move follows a similar path taken earlier by New York. As previously reported by crypto.news, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed lawsuits against Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan, accusing both of operating unlicensed prediction markets. 

Her office argued that event-based contracts tied to sports and elections were offered without approval from the New York State Gaming Commission and were accessible to users below the legal betting age of 21.

“Gambling by another name is still gambling, and it is not exempt from regulation under our state laws and Constitution,” James added. 

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Court filings in that case sought at least $2.2B from Coinbase and $1.2B from Gemini, increasing financial pressure alongside regulatory scrutiny.

Industry participants continue to push back by pointing to federal oversight. Coinbase has argued that such disputes belong in federal court. 

Platforms operating through Kalshi maintain that event contracts qualify as swaps under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not state gambling regulators.

A recent ruling from the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, treating the regulator’s decision not to block the contracts as effectively settling the question of jurisdiction.

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Even so, states continue to press their own interpretations. Authorities in Nevada have described similar contracts as indistinguishable from gambling, while New York has maintained that each contract represents a bet.

With multiple states building cases on similar grounds, the dispute is moving toward a broader constitutional question. A final determination from the Supreme Court of the United States could decide whether prediction markets fall under a single federal framework or remain subject to state gambling laws.

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AI Swallows Wall Street: Stocks Hit Record 45% of S&P 500 Market Cap

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From NASA to Crypto: The Unlikely Journey of Benjamin Cowen

Artificial intelligence has now expanded its dominance to US equities and the credit market.

The shift is rewriting how capital flows through Wall Street, with AI-linked companies crowding out traditional sectors from benchmark indices while also redefining the largest corners of the bond market.

AI Stocks Hit Record 45% of S&P 500 as Credit Markets Follow Suit

AI-linked stocks now account for a record 45% of the S&P 500’s total market cap, according to data from The Kobeissi Letter. That share has risen by 20 percentage points since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in November 2022.

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The shift in the credit market is equally stark. A record 15.4% of US investment-grade debt is now tied to AI, up +3.5 points since 2020. It has also become the market’s largest segment.

Total AI-linked debt has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching an all-time high of $1.4 trillion. Hyperscalers such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have dominated the trend.

Together, the five issued $121 billion in US corporate bonds during 2025, well above the $28 billion annual average they posted between 2020 and 2024.

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“Never before has a single theme dominated both US equity and credit markets to this magnitude,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote.

The AI trade is also reshaping global equity leadership. Taiwan’s stock market cap climbed to $4.14 trillion, passing the UK’s $4.09 trillion for the first time.

The country’s market cap has tripled since 2020, driven almost entirely by semiconductor stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) alone accounts for more than 40% of the market capitalization.

In effect, the trajectory of AI adoption and monetization may now set the direction for much of the global market. Meanwhile, any pause could expose how much of that valuation rests on a single theme.

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The post AI Swallows Wall Street: Stocks Hit Record 45% of S&P 500 Market Cap appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Cardano (ADA) faces bearish pressure as whales reduce exposure

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A Cardano (ADA) cryptocurrency token placed on a table with a blurred upward-trending market chart in the background.
A Cardano (ADA) cryptocurrency token placed on a table with a blurred upward-trending market chart in the background.

Key takeaways

  • ADA is trading below key resistance zones, signaling a bearish near-term bias and limiting recovery attempts.
  • Whales are reducing their exposure to ADA, which could lead to further price decline. 

Cardano (ADA) continues to trade under pressure, hovering below $0.250 on Friday as price action remains subdued beneath key resistance zones. 

On-chain data from Santiment indicates that certain whale wallets have begun reducing their holdings, adding to selling pressure.

Whales reduce exposure amid shifting accumulation trends

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data points to a weakening outlook for Cardano as large-wallet investors adjust their positions. Whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA and 1 million–10 million ADA have collectively offloaded around 80 million tokens since April 19.

Furthermore, wallets in the 10 million–100 million ADA range have accumulated approximately 60 million ADA over the same period. 

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This divergence suggests a rotation in holdings: mid-sized whales are selling, while larger entities are absorbing supply. Such behavior often reflects distribution at elevated levels, increasing short-term downside risk.

Cardano’s derivatives data present a mixed outlook with a slight bearish tilt. CoinGlass data shows open interest falling to $444 million on Friday, down from $490 million on April 18. This indicates declining trader participation and weakening speculative demand.

Additionally, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.80, its lowest level in over a month. A ratio below 1 indicates bearish positioning, with more traders expecting price declines.

Despite that, the funding rate paints a bullish narrative. The OI-weighted funding rate turned positive on Thursday and currently sits at 0.0076%, suggesting that long positions are paying shorts—often interpreted as a mild bullish signal.

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Cardano price outlook: bears continue to halt recovery

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Cardano remains technically weak, trading below $0.250. 

The coin is facing immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA of $0.258, followed by $0.269 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and the 100-day EMA at $0.294.

Momentum indicators remain neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51, while the MACD is flat just above zero, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction.

If the bearish trend persists, immediate support is found at $0.245. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further losses toward $0.220, a key prior-cycle support zone.

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ADA/USD 4H Chart

However, if the bulls regain control and close above the $0.258 resistance, it would be the first sign of recovery strength, potentially opening the path toward $0.269 and higher resistance levels near $0.294 and $0.299. 

An extended bullish reversal would require a move above $0.323 and eventually toward the 200-day EMA near $0.383.

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Are Bitcoin Whales Opportunists? On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth

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Bitcoin Whale Accumulation

Bitcoin whales are buying the bounce. Hodlers are not. The split between the two cohorts tells a very different story than the one the Bitcoin price rally is showing.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $77,670 on April 24, sitting inside a rising channel that has defined the chart since February 24. The rally back above $77,000 looks constructive on the surface. Yet beneath it, two on-chain signals pull in opposite directions. And the divergence reveals what the biggest wallets are actually doing.

Bitcoin Whales Buy Every Bounce, and the April 22 Crossover Was the Trigger

The 10,000 to 100,000 BTC whale cohort has a clear pattern. They buy local bottoms, ride the bounce, and step back. Santiment data shows the cohort jumped its stash from 2.26 million to 2.27 million BTC within four days of Bitcoin’s February 6 low under $62,000. The same cohort added from 2.23 million to 2.26 million BTC between March 23 and early April as price bottomed near $67,700. Now, they are buying again, starting April 22.

Bitcoin Whale Accumulation
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation: Santiment

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The April 22 buy had a technical trigger. On the 12-hour chart, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend line that averages price with more weight on recent candles, crossed above the 200-period EMA. That bullish crossover formed the exact day whales restarted buying. This points to a timing (opportunistic) trade rather than a conviction bet.

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EMA Crossover
EMA Crossover: TradingView

ARK Invest’s Q1 2026 Bitcoin Quarterly adds context. The big money buyers expanded their holdings by 69%, from 2.13 million to 3.60 million BTC during Q1’s 22% drawdown, marking the fastest accumulation pace since the 2020 cycle. However, price has since recovered off those lows.

And the current whale buying is happening at $77,000, not the $68,200 levels where ARK’s conviction data was captured. These are bounce buyers, not bottom buyers.

Hodlers Are Not Joining the Rally, Validating the Bottom Is Not In

If this rally were the start of a durable recovery, mid-term holders would be adding. They are not. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change, a metric that tracks whether mid-term holders are accumulating or distributing BTC, peaked at 38,401 BTC on April 21 at a BTC price of $76,470. By April 24, that reading dropped to roughly 32,303, a 16% collapse in three days. Conviction wallets are not chasing the bounce.

Bitcoin Hodler Net Position Change
Bitcoin Hodler Net Position Change: Glassnode

The real conviction wallets are not chasing the bounce. That could be possibly due to the lack of a clear market bottom indicator, one that we highlighted in our previous Bitcoin price analysis.

Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection at $79,528 as the Channel Top Caps the Rally

Bitcoin pushed to the top of its rising channel at $79,528 on April 22 before reversing. That rejection aligns with the whale pattern. The bounce trade ran into the same upper trendline that has capped every rally since February, and without hodler support, the move has stalled.

A daily close above $79,528 would flip the structure and open the channel’s ceiling near $80,000, with hodler conviction likely to follow. However, rejection here exposes the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $75,523 as the first downside test.

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A break under $75,523 opens $73,046 and $71,043, and a slide toward the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $66,190 would unlock the channel floor near $62,559. The January rally of 10% can unwind quickly if whales decide the bounce has no legs. For now, $79,528 separates a confirmed breakout from another whale-led bounce that fades back into the channel.

The post Are Bitcoin Whales Opportunists? On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Foreign car companies use technology to hang onto China auto market

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Nvidia’s Huang to visit China as AI chip sales stall

A journalist films Xiaomi SU7 Ultra cars during a Xiaomi track day driving experience in Tianjin, in northern China on April 23, 2026, ahead of the Beijing Auto Show which opens on April 24. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP via Getty Images)

Greg Baker | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — Foreign automakers are finally catching up with their Chinese rivals on technology, as they battle a sales slump in the world’s largest car market.

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U.S., Korean and German automakers rushed to announce a new lineup of models for China around the Beijing auto show that kicked off Friday.

“We have plans to really build this brand and return [to] where we used to be in terms of volume and [market] share,” Will Stacy, vice president, Cadillac China at General Motors, told CNBC’s Eunice Yoon.

Cadillac on Wednesday announced its first car with driver-assist technology for China: a three-row “luxury” electric SUV, priced at 468,000 yuan ($68,000) and 508,800 yuan.

Called the VISTIQ, the vehicle uses advanced driver assist software that can handle highways and city roads, as well as automatic parking. The tech was co-developed with Chinese autonomous driving startup Momenta.

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“We’ve been mostly an ICE [internal combustion engine] brand here in China, and with this vehicle that enables us to enter the game here in China,” Stacy said. He said sourcing locally in China allows Cadillac to compete effectively with its local rivals — cutting production time to 18 months — while the brand aims to attract customers with a promise of trust on safety.

Hyundai officially launched its all-electric IONIQ brand in China on Friday as the Korean automaker kicks off its most ambitious local expansion to date.

“China is where the future of mobility is being defined, and Hyundai intends to help define it, in China, for China, and ultimately, for the world,” José Muñoz, president and CEO of Hyundai Motor Company, said in a release.

Muñoz added in an interview with CNBC’s Eunice Yoon that as China has fallen from 17% to 4% of Hyundai’s total sales, the automaker had to “reimagine the strategy.”

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Hyundai’s new IONIQ V also comes with advanced driver-assist co-developed with Momenta, and offers voice-control functions using an AI assistant that runs on a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8295 chipset.

Muñoz told CNBC that Hyundai could export the brand to Asia-Pacific, Australia and the Middle East if sales in China do well.

Hyundai’s China sales in March were about a third of what they were in the same month in 2019, before the pandemic. A number of other foreign carmakers have also seen sales drop over the same period. Figures compiled by CNBC suggest Nissan sales in China in March were down 47% on March 2019, while Cadillac fell 39%.

“I’m glad to see that these foreign brands are humble enough and recognize the value of the Chinese tech that they’re incorporating it,” said Stephen Dyer, partner and managing director and head of AlixPartners’ Asia automotive and industrials consulting practice.

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He’s less optimistic that the foreign brands can win back significant market share in China, but said they have an opportunity to bring technology from China to their home markets.

“I think the technology … will disseminate throughout the world,” Dyer said. “I don’t think you can keep it locked up in the bottle of China. I think it’s already gone out.”

Cars with personality

German automaker Volkswagen, which is also embarking on its most ambitious China product campaign, announced Tuesday that it will begin rolling out AI-powered voice command in its cars in China starting in the second half of the year.

“The car should be like a companion,” Volkswagen China CTO Thomas Ulbrich said.

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He said the company’s in-car AI agent would draw on tech from Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu, among others, to create a tool with “personality” that can anticipate a driver’s needs.

Volkswagen revealed four cars in Beijing on Tuesday, including the ID. UNYX 09, which the company said it co-developed with EV maker Xpeng in two years.

The German automaker has built a research and development center in Hefei where it can manage the entire production process.

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Hyundai and its local state-owned partner BAIC had committed 8 billion yuan to a joint venture as of December 2024.

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The venture, Beijing Hyundai, plans to introduce 20 new models in China over the next five years. The cars include the new IONIQ V, and another SUV in the first half of 2027 — with the goal of 500,000 sales annually.

China market leader BYD recorded sales of 688,993 in China in the first three months of 2026, though that marked a 30% drop on the same period in 2025. BYD sold 2.26 million battery-powered cars globally last year, exceeding Tesla‘s 1.64 million vehicle sales.

On average, 10 to 15 cars launch in China in the span of about a month, which means automakers “need to remain relevant and fresh” for customers who face many choices, Ivan Espinosa, president and CEO of Nissan, told CNBC’s Elaine Yu.

“The fact that we have established dealers with established experience, good relationships and good service for them, this is also starting to become more and more important,” Espinosa said.

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Nissan plans to launch five new energy vehicles utilizing plug-in electric technology in the next 12 months.

The Japanese automaker has a joint venture with China’s Dongfeng, and integrated DeepSeek AI capabilities into its N7 electric sedan last year.

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— CNBC’s Matthew Chin contributed to this report

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